Managing Chinese Threat

[Prem]

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/wor ... -asia-tour
China's Slings and Arrows

he week since President Obama's return from his Asia-Pacific tour has, unsurprisingly, seen a stream of negative commentary from Chinese state-run media on on the U.S. role in Asia. China was especially unhappy with a U.S.-Japan joint statement confirming that the allied nations’ security treaty applies to all territories administered by Japan, including the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and with a U.S.-Philippines defense agreement boosting America’s troop presence in the island nation. An annual joint military exercise between the United States and the Philippines currently underway is also being viewed with apprehension from China.“U.S. shows its true colors,” announced an editorial in the English-language China Daily the day of Obama's return to Washington. “It is increasingly obvious that Washington is taking Beijing as an opponent,” said the editorial, taking aim at America’s alliances with both Japan and the Philippines. “Ganging up with its troublemaking allies, the U.S. is presenting itself as a security threat to China.” The editorial accused the United States and its “malicious” allies in Asia of projecting a “threatening image of China” in a concerted “attempt to contain China’s influence in the region.” According to the editorial, however, these efforts will ultimately fail: “Washington must come to terms with the reality that China will continue to grow, though it will not follow the U.S.’ hegemonic path.”While China was displeased at U.S. agreements with both Japan and the Philippines, its greatest anger has been with the U.S.-Japan security arrangement. An editorial in People's Daily accused the two nations of "double-dealing" and "betraying history" on the Diaoyu/Senkaku issue, saying that "Japan is taking advantage of American greed to cause trouble" with its neighbors (i.e., China) in the Asia-Pacific region. "China's peaceful rise will not be constrained by any other country," the editorial likewise insisted. "The U.S. and Japan will taste bitter fruits if they continue their betrayal of history."People’s Daily also highlighted “indignation” expressed by Chinese netizens following the U.S.-Japan joint statement. “The Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea have been an integral part of Chinese territory for centuries,” said one netizen quoted by People’s Daily. “Meanwhile, the Beijing Review insisted that Washington is in "decline," and is being played by Japan to the latter's advantage. "Washington neither wants to, nor is able to convince Tokyo to start dialogues with Beijing over the the Diaoyu Islands issue," said the Beijing Review. "Obama did flaunt his country's status as a superpower by backing Japan. But unfortunately, he also exposed the degradation of Washington's political wisdom. ... The United States is too spoiled by its egoistic superpower status to be a mediator.". The Global Times also suggested that "U.S. power is in decline," and that perhaps China could look forward to one day having the United States out of its way.These statements show a continuing attitude of bitterness toward the United States and its Asian alliances, and a sense that the United States is trespassing on China's "backyard" with its presence in Asia. As in previous statements, they reveal a fixation on the idea that America seeks to "contain" China, even as U.S. power declines according to Chinese observers. Japanese and philippine "troublemaking," according to China, is also a recurring theme. As China continues its quest for regional supremacy in Asia, and as the United States continues to not go away, this tension with America and its Asian allies can only be expected to increase.

[SSridhar]

Wow, China is simultaneously poking Japan, Vietnam and Philippines.

[SSridhar]

According to reports, China has appreciated Sri Lanka's support extended to the "Maritime Silk Route" (MSR) initiative proposed by the Chinese leadership, which advocates harnessing primarily economic cooperation in the Maritime Silk Route Belt, Sri Lanka's External Affairs Ministry said. The Chinese vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Liu Zhenmin during his visit to Sri Lanka recently to participate in the 9th Round of the bilateral political consultations between the two countries has stressed that through the implementation of the MSR concept, both countries would benefit in a number of key areas including fisheries and shipping. During the bilateral talks, China has proposed to convene an oceanography seminar and deepen cooperation in maritime science environment protection, and intimated interest to increase investments targeting the development of the Chinese-built Hambantota Port and its vicinity.

Link to IDSA Report

[SSridhar]

From NightWatch for the night of May 06, 2014

Vietnam-China: Since last weekend, Vietnamese and Chinese ships have been engaged in a confrontation near the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the South China Sea.

Chinese ships have intentionally rammed Vietnamese ships three times since 3 May and turned water cannons against the Vietnamese ships, according to Vietnamese officials. They told the press in Hanoi that China has deployed up to 80 ships, including seven military ships, to protect and to help install an oil rig.

The Vietnamese navy was trying to prevent the Chinese from setting up the rig because it is in an area both nations claim. During the daily Foreign Ministry briefing on Wednesday, Chinese officials said that the oil rig was within China's territorial waters. "The disruptive activities by the Vietnamese side are in violation of China's sovereign rights."

Philippines-China: Philippine authorities seized a Chinese fishing boat and detained its 11 crew in another disputed part of the South China Sea on Wednesday. A Philippine maritime official told the press that the Chinese fishing boat was being towed to shore and charges would be brought against the crew members for catching protected species, including sea turtles.

China's Foreign Ministry called the action provocative and demanded the immediate release of the fishermen, who have been taken to a Philippine port. Xinhua reported the fishing boat - named Qiongqionghai 09063 - had been seized by an "unidentified armed vessel. "Several armed men forced themselves on to the boat and fired four or five shots in the air. They then took control of the boat," Xinhua said.

Comment: In the aftermath of the US President's visit to Southeast Asia, Vietnam and the Philippines have been emboldened to challenge China's more assertive presence in the South China Sea. China behaves just as its spokesmen and leaders say, as the owner of the Sea. The others are finding Chinese behavior tiresome and threatening.

This security situation in the South China Sea region is on an escalatory path that will lead to armed confrontations. The Southeast Asians are counting on their understanding of US promises of support in their confrontations with China. Otherwise they would be less assertive.

[Pratyush]

It is an act of enormous stupidity from the PRC. With the new government coming in Delhi. They have pushed Tokyo, Hanoi and Manila, on the same side.

An excellent opportunity for India to find a foot hold in the region.

[SSridhar]

Philippine police to charge-sheet 11 Chinese fishermen with illegal entry - Straits Times

The Philippine National Police (PNP) will charge 11 crewmen of a Chinese fishing boat with illegal entry after it seized the vessel off Half Moon Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

PNP chief Director-General Alan Purisima said in a news conference on Thursday that the boat was found 106 km from Rizal town in Palawan province, well within the Philippines' so-called exclusive economic zone.

Asked to react on China's demand that the 11 crewmen be released, General Purisima replied: "That is their statement. Our statement is that they were inside our territory."

He said the PNP has referred the case to the National Committee on Illegal Entrants, and it is also considering filing poaching charges against the 11 men now in its custody in Puerto Princesa, Palawan.
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[SSridhar]

Japan deeply worried over China-Vietnam maritime spat - Straits Times

Japan said on Thursday it was "deeply worried" by China's behaviour in a spat with Vietnam over contested waters, and urged Beijing to rein in its "provocative" actions.

The comment comes after Hanoi said Chinese vessels rammed its patrol ships and turned water cannon on them near a controversial drilling rig in a disputed patch of the South China Sea.

It also comes as Japan and China continue to face off in their own territorial row over a small island grouping in the East China Sea and amid claims that Beijing is becoming increasingly assertive.

"We have strong concerns as there is information that many Vietnamese vessels were damaged and some people were injured," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters in Tokyo.

[SSridhar]

6 conditions to be met for Japan's 'collective self-defense' - Yomiuri Shimbun

The prime minister will personally decide on the “necessity” of Japanese assistance to a country under armed attack, adding a proposed sixth condition that the nation would have to meet before it could exercise the right to collective self-defense, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

According to sources, in addition to five previously reported conditions, an upcoming report by the Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security will include a sixth condition, namely that the prime minister will decide whether to allow the government to exercise the right based on careful discussions at the National Security Council on the “necessity” and “proportionality” of Japan’s assistance to a nation being attacked.

The report by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s advisory panel on security will be submitted to him next week. Based on this report, the government plans to present its basic policy for discussions on revising the interpretation of the Constitution regarding collective self-defense.

The government’s current interpretation is that Japan possesses the right to collective self-defense but is prohibited from exercising it.

Shinichi Kitaoka, acting chairman of the panel and president of the International University of Japan, had previously indicated the report would contain five conditions—a country with close ties to Japan is attacked; failure to provide assistance would significantly impact Japan's national security; an explicit request for help is issued by the affected country; permission to pass through or over the territory of relevant nations is granted; the prime minister is granted Diet approval to give assistance after comprehensive consideration.

According to the sources, splitting the prime minister’s decision from the fifth condition will help set the two standards of high “necessity” of any assistance Japan might provide, and “proportionality” that would prohibit an excessively forceful response compared with the violation committed by the perpetrating country.

The “necessity” of Japanese assistance would likely be high in the event of an emergency in areas near Japan, such as on the Korean Peninsula.

However, the necessity of sending the Self-Defense Forces to provide assistance in response to an invasion in a distant nation is expected to be very low, except for special cases such as those requiring Japan’s technical expertise in clearing mines. Consequently, this condition would impose a check on exercising the right to collective self-defense in regions geographically distant from Japan.

In a related move, the report will urge the NSC to carefully decide whether the SDF would be able to perform such missions, given that their abilities and equipment have been organized under a policy of maintaining purely defensive forces.

The SDF does not possess weapons for the purpose of attacking other nations. Making the decision on whether to exercise the right to collective self-defense based on the capabilities of the SDF is apparently aimed at erasing concerns stemming from a misunderstanding that “Japan will become a nation able to wage war on the other side of the world.”

The panel is chaired by Shunji Yanai, former ambassador to the United States.

[SSridhar]

China shifts blame back on Vietnam - AFP

Beijing on Thursday swatted blame back to Hanoi after it accused Chinese ships of ramming Vietnamese vessels in disputed waters. Foreign ministry official Yi Xianliang said Vietnamese ships had rammed Chinese vessels 171 times since May 3 — in sharp contrast to Vietnam’s claim that its own patrol vessels were repeatedly rammed by Chinese ships protecting a deep-water drilling rig near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The islands are controlled by China but claimed by Vietnam.

“The Chinese side made no provocations at all. It is the Vietnamese side that is making provocations,” Mr. Yi said . By contrast Hanoi claimed on Wednesday that Chinese boats had collided with Vietnamese ships in at least three incidents since May 3 and used water cannon to attack Vietnamese law enforcement ships. Vietnam broadcast a video , while Mr. Yi declined to provide specific evidence of China’s claims. — AFP

Clearly, China is lying.

[JE Menon]

>>Vietnamese ships had rammed Chinese vessels 171 times since May 3

that's over 28 times a day over a 6/day period from May 3rd!!! Must have been a lot of biggish Vietnamese ships involved, an in many cases repeated ramming. Video would be nice, and at least of 28 different incidents out of 171 in this day of high resolution mobile vidcams.

[vijaykarthik]

^^ reckon he was talking about his Wii unit and a special war game where Vietnamese ships routinely smash against Chinese vessels.

Oh wait, is it possible that a Vietnamese ship broke into pieces, due to the Chinese ship hitting it, and one of those pieces in the flotilla kept smashing against the Chinese boat 171 times?

[SSridhar]

[SSridhar]

NightWatch for the night of 8 May 2014

Japan-China-Vietnam: A Japanese Cabinet official on 8 May said that the government is deeply worried by China's behavior toward Vietnam in the South China Sea confrontation. He said that Beijing should rein in its provocative actions.

China-Philippines: Update. China demanded the Philippines release the fishing boat and crew it detained on Tuesday off Palawan Island. The spokesman for the Chinese embassy, Zhang Hua, said China asked the Philippines for a rational explanation and for the immediate release of the Chinese boat and crew.

"This provocative action is premeditated in an attempt to create tensions, and severely violates China's sovereignty and maritime rights. The Chinese side strongly urges the Philippine side to release the boat and its crew immediately, and guarantee the crew's safety and their property. The Chinese side warns the Philippine side not to take provocative actions, so as to avoid further damage to bilateral relations. The Chinese side will keep following closely the development of this provocative act."

Philippine statement. The Philippines announced that the crew would be tried for poaching endangered species.

Speaking to reporters, Presidential Communications Operations Office Secretary Herminio Coloma yesterday said police are justified in arresting the Chinese, who had violated laws on the protection of wildlife.

"It was in accordance with their duty to enforce environment protection and wildlife conservation laws while upholding Philippine sovereign rights over our exclusive economic zone," he said. Authorities in Palawan will deal with the case, Coloma said.

China-Vietnam: Update. On 8 May, the deputy director-general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs and the CEO of China Oilfield Services Limited held a joint press briefing on the Chinese drilling operations in the waters south of Zhongjian (Triton Island) in the Xisha (Paracel) Islands.

The officials said since 2 May Vietnam has strongly interfered with normal drilling activities performed by China Oilfield Services Limited in the waters of China's Xisha Islands, and the Chinese side is very surprised and shocked.

They said the Xisha Islands are China's inherent territory, and there is no dispute over this. Chinese businesses operating within the waters of China's Aisha Islands are completely within the mandate of China's sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction. Interference by the Vietnamese in the normal activities of Chinese businesses seriously infringes on China's sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction; seriously impacts the normal order of production operations and the safety of the Chinese operations platform; and brings completely unnecessary problems to China-Vietnam relations.{Simple, isn't it? Just claim everything as Chinese territory as it does in Arunachal Pradesh, Depsang and elsewhere along the LAC wherever the PLA intrudes}

They also side said that, faced with the Vietnamese interference, the Chinese had no choice but to strengthen the security force at the site and prevent acts of interference by the Vietnamese in order to safeguard the order of maritime production operations and ensure safe navigation. The Chinese demand that the Vietnamese truly respect China's legal and legitimate rights and interests, be reasonable, immediately stop all forms of interference, and immediately withdraw all vessels and personnel from the site.

Comment: The Chinese Foreign Ministry would prefer these issues be settled through talks, but might find itself having to defend cases in courts all over Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, China will not compromise on its claim of sovereignty.

A Chinese naval officer has recommended that fishing fleets upgrade their defensive awareness; operate in fleets with escort forces; and that the escort forces should maintain constant patrols.

[SSridhar]

Settling Differences with China - Mukuk Sanwal, IDSA

The relations between India and China need not be – and should not be – a zero sum game, and the time is ripe for settling differences with China as the major political parties share this objective.

The Congress manifesto speaks of "resolution of the differences of perception about the border and the line of control" and Narendra Modi, the leader of the BJP, in an interview to the Times of India, stated that “it is in the realm of possibility for us to solve our problems with China and take our relationship with China to a new level”. What would that entail?

The current importance of the Henderson-Brooks Report on the events of 1962, for foreign policy rather than military operations, is the light it sheds on the border, which is the root cause of the problem between the two countries. The operational issues raised in the Report are rightly of concern only to the military and the Ministry of Defense. The public interest is also not being served by focusing on the individuals involved, as that is largely of historical interest.

The national debate should really be on whether the assertion in the leaked report that Dhola Post, where it all started, was located north of the McMahon line, and whether this was known to the Defense and Foreign Ministries, or inadvertently located wrongly by local commanders and the mistake was not brought to the notice of the government. If this was indeed the case then statements made by the Chinese leaders at that time of teaching India a lesson would reflect a response to a local situation rather than Chinese expansionism.

There are other references in the leaked Report that the Government was advising caution, and the entire communication from the Defense Ministry was not transmitted by Army Headquarters to the ground formations. There are also statements that new posts were to be established only in Ladakh, where there was no agreed border, and their location was being ordered directly from Army Headquarters.

Apparently, there was no government direction to establish new posts as part of the “forward policy” in Arunachal Pradesh with its McMahon Line. The report categorically states that Dhola Post was established inadvertently north of this line, on the basis of incorrect coordinates, by the ground formation and not by Army Headquarters. The mistake was realized and reported but no action taken, and it invited immediate requests from the Chinese not to cross the agreed border.

The nation needs to know whether this was indeed the case, and what the files of the Government of India have to say, because they were not available to the Henderson-Brooks Committee.

A re-look of the intentions of the Chinese is important because according to an objective analysis of long-term economic trends by the OECD around 2030 Asia will be the world’s powerhouse just as it was prior to 1800. Currently the OECD has two-third of global output compared to one-fourth in China and India, and by 2060 these two countries will have a little less than half of world GDP with OECD’s share shrinking to one-quarter. China is expected to surpass the US by 2016 to become the largest economy in the world, and India’s GDP is expected to exceed that of the US by 2060.

India’s GDP will increase from 11% to 18% as a share of global GDP while China’s share will remain at 28% during this period, just as it has been since the dawn of civilization.

The primary factor holding us back will be the growing demand for food, water and energy, which is expected to double, and will require reshaping a global system that served the natural resource and security needs of 20 per cent of the population to one that will share prosperity and peace with all of humanity in an interdependent world faced with ecological limits.

India and China will have to reconstruct international relations theory, as the focus of both realists and idealists is on material force and material benefit whereas we now need a global vision of sharing natural resources and technology. A shared vision of prosperity for four billion people who have yet to benefit from globalization will provide the legitimacy to reshape the global order.

Therefore, the shift will require new global rules based both on markets and social considerations. Creating markets for economic growth and then creating new markets to clean up have led to the current global ecological crisis; climate change is an example of market failure. Global environmental change is not about physical but social processes shaped largely by patterns of resource use and urban design.

In climate change there is already a close collaboration with China. We have the opportunity, as we build our infrastructure and China shifts to consumption, to make our two countries increasingly interdependent economically, to allay future concerns as we will continue to grow long after China’ s growth stabilizes. A shared global vision will overcome both the global rulemaking deficit and competition inherent in the rise of two Asian giants.

Changing the political relationship between two rising powers seeking to establish their territorial integrity, identity and rightful place in world affairs requires that both countries use the opportunity provided by their shared interest in global governance reform to develop close cooperation and trust, which will lead to a demarcated border rather than let a colonial legacy dominate relations.

[vinod]

China's 'anti-church' campaign continues with demolitions and arrests

By Tom Phillips, Shanghai

11:05AM BST 09 May 2014


Fears of a widening campaign against China's fast growing Christian population grew this week as demolition teams moved in on four more churches in the country's east and three Christians were arrested in Beijing for holding an outdoor service.


The Longwan Hebin church in Wenzhou, a city in the eastern province of Zhejiang known as "China's Jerusalem", was totally destroyed by government teams on Thursday, according to a local church leader who asked not to be named.


Photographs showed a yellow excavator tearing down the green church. The place of worship "was flattened in just two hours," one witness wrote on social media.

Earlier in the week officials removed a cross from the roof of the Baixi church on the outskirts of Wenzhou. Parts of Feng'ao church were also demolished.

In Hangzhou, Zhejiang's capital, a cross was also removed from the roof of the Qiaosi church.

Christians have been warning of a renewed government offensive against their community since early April when thousands of believers flocked to a huge church in Wenzhou hoping to fend off government bulldozers.

That church – Sanjiang – was torn down on April 28 fuelling fears that Beijing was gearing up for a nationwide crackdown on Christianity, a religion some leaders see as a threat to the Communist Party's hold on power. Officials claim the demolitions are targeting illegal buildings not Christian places of worship.

Zhang Mingxuan, an outspoken Protestant leader from China's officially illegal "house church" movement, told The Telegraph he believed Beijing was now "deeply concerned" with the rapid spread of Christianity.

"The large number of churches and churchgoers is seen as a threat to maintaining stability. The more churchgoers there are, the greater that threat will seem to the government," added Pastor Zhang, who runs the Chinese House Church Alliance.

"The Communist Party is an atheist, dictatorial regime which wants to have its say over everything. Churchgoers seek democracy and human rights. The two are as incompatible as fire and water."

The latest demolitions came as a report from Beijing's International Relations University warned "religious infiltration" posed a grave threat to China's "ideological security" and national security.

"Overseas religious infiltration forces have extended their tentacles into all aspects of Chinese society," it argued, according to an extract in the Beijing Evening News.

Meanwhile, congregants from one of Beijing's largest underground "house" churches called for the release of three members who were arrested last Sunday while holding an "outdoor worship service".

In a letter posted on its website, the Shouwang congregation wrote: "When the number of churchgoers increases, authorities will find ways of using legal means to bring it under control."

"We hereby pray to the Holy Spirit to bestow upon us the power to come together to overcome the suppression of the dark forces."

[SSridhar]

China-Vietnam face-off in South China Sea leaves India worried - ToI

India has joined the US in ringing alarm bells over China's expansionist expeditions in the South China Sea clashing with Vietnam and the Philippines early this week. Though trying to play safe, New Delhi refused to name China or Vietnam and instead called for freedom of navigation in the sea. {But, what is happening between China and Philiipines & Vietnam are not related to 'freedom of navigation'}

Almost five days after Chinese ships reportedly rammed Vietnamese vessels near the Paracel Islands, the external affairs ministry said it is concerned about the "recent developments" in the South China Sea. In a statement, the foreign office said, "We would like to see resolution of the issue through peaceful means in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law."

It is unclear whether India is referring to the issue of conflicting sovereignty of the areas that China and Vietnam claim, or whether it was concerned about a potential flare-up as a result of Chinese and Vietnamese ships apparently ramming each other and Chinese spraying them with water cannons.

Calling for "cooperation in ensuring security of sea-lanes and strengthening of maritime security", India maintained freedom of navigation in the South China Sea should not be impeded.

Vietnam posted videos of how its ships were rammed by Chinese civilian and military vessels which formed the group that accompanied the CNOOC mobile oil rig, Haiyang Shiyou 981, which showed up in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for oil exploration activities. The rig was accompanied by a flotilla of civilian and military ships. According to Vietnam reports, after its naval vessels asked Chinese ships to move out, the Chinese ships rammed them, reportedly injuring six sailors.

Vietnam military spokesperson was quoted by the foreign media as saying, "Vietnam has exercised restraint". "But if Chinese vessels continue ramming Vietnamese ships, we'll have to act out of self-defence," said a senior Vietnamese commander.

[sanjaykumar]

Brahmos, but I am sure India will exercise 'restraint'.

[SSridhar]

X-post from Afghanistan thread

Call for China to be proactive in Afghanistan - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

The Chinese are already active in Afghanistan. They have multiple reasons to do so, increasing their sphere of influence in their neighbourhood especially over an unstable country, this is the right time to intervene, there is help from STFU-TSP to do so, there is mineral wealth to be exploited there, there is a need to deny Indian influence there both for its sake and the sake of Pakistan, Afghanistan is part of the old Silk Route and likely new Land Silk Route, plenty of opportunity for trade, keep a tab on the nexus between Uyghur jihadists and the Taliban, establish its claim as a successor to the US legacy etc.

A spate of terror attacks in recent weeks targeting railway stations in China has brought into the spotlight the government’s concerns about growing capabilities of extremist groups in the far-western Xinjiang region, with Chinese officials and strategic experts fearing that terror groups could soon become further emboldened by possible instability in neighbouring Afghanistan following the imminent withdrawal of United States-led NATO forces.

Chinese strategic scholars are now calling on Beijing to rethink its long-held reluctance to play a greater security role in neighbouring Afghanistan – where Chinese involvement has largely been limited to investments in mines and infrastructure projects – amid fears that a deteriorating situation there could impact security in Xinjiang in the wake of three daring attacks in recent weeks that have left at least 30 people killed and more than 200 injured.

Only on Friday, five people in Xinjiang’s southern Kashgar prefecture were given jail terms ranging from seven to 15 years for spreading “video and audio material to incite separatist activities”, the official Xinjiang Daily reported, adding that the southern Xinjiang border regions of Hotan, Kashgar and Aksu which border Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Central Asia were “areas overseas separatist forces attempt to penetrate the most.”

Security blue book

This week, a government think-tank released a first ever National Security Blue Book, or policy guideline, warning that as Chinese overseas interests were expanding, terrorism in China was “taking on new characteristics.”

“The risk of China facing more international terrorism is being intensified,” the book said, adding that there were “10 terrorist attacks in China last year.”

On Tuesday, six people were injured as at least one assailant armed with long knives stabbed passengers at a railway station in the southern industrial metropolis of Guangzhou.

This followed an attack last week in Xinjiang’s provincial capital Urumqi that left at least three people killed and 79 injured when attackers detonated explosives and stabbed people. The Urumqi and Kunming attacks, according to officials, were carried out by extremist Uighur groups from Xinjiang. The Uighurs are an ethnic Turkic Muslim group native to Xinjiang, which has a history of ethnic tensions between Uighurs and the majority Han Chinese. The attacks have prompted warnings from Chinese strategic experts for Beijing to step up attention on its western frontier. Zhao Minghao of Peking University in a recent article warned that the government should not be distracted by maritime tensions on its eastern frontiers.Another challenge

“Although confronted by diplomatic challenges including the Diaoyu Islands disputes [with Japan], the South China Sea spats and the North Korean nuclear issue, Chinese leaders also have to pay attention to the security to the west of the nation. Afghanistan in the post-2014 era is posing another challenge for China’s neighbourhood diplomacy,” he warned.

“To safeguard the stability in border areas and economic interests in Afghanistan, Beijing should continue to play a role on relevant issues. China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region borders Afghanistan through the Wakhan Corridor. When the Taliban was in power, Al Qaeda set up training camps and provided arms equipment for terrorist and separatist groups from Xinjiang.”

Showing keener interest

Chinese officials believe members of the separatist East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) have been hiding out in border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In recent months, Beijing has indeed begun to show greater interest in playing a broader role in Afghanistan beyond investing in projects. China has organised separate bilateral and trilateral dialogues involving Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan and India, and also pushed for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) grouping to take up a greater role there following the NATO withdrawal.

[SSridhar]

China asks Vietnam not to 'disrupt' oil drilling - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu

China has called on Vietnam “to stop disrupting” its oil drilling in the South China Sea days after ships from both countries clashed in disputed waters in the most serious escalation in maritime tensions between the two countries in recent months.

Dispute accounts

Chinese officials here disputed the accounts from Hanoi suggesting that China’s vessels had, on Sunday, “intentionally rammed” two Vietnamese Sea Guard vessels in an area where China is drilling for oil.

The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry said Chinese ships had used water cannons to damage and intimidate their ships, injuring six people.

Officials added that no shots had been fired.

Account disputed

In Beijing, officials disputed Hanoi’s account. A top official of the Foreign Ministry’s Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs said Vietnam had triggered the clash by carrying out “intensive disruptions of normal oil drilling in waters administered by China,” off the Paracel Islands – referred to as the Xisha islands by China.

The $1 billion rig is being operated by the state-run China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

‘Within EEZ’

China has justified drilling in the region by claiming the disputed Paracel or Xisha islands, and arguing that the waters fall within the islands’ exclusive economic zone.

“The waters of the operation, which is only 17 nautical miles away from the Zhongjian Island is completely within waters off China’s Xisha Islands,” he said, adding that Chinese companies had been operating in the waters as long as 10 years ago.

The area in question is however seen by Hanoi as falling within its Exclusive Economic Zone, located around 200 nautical miles from Vietnam’s own coastline.

[SSridhar]

Yasukuni, Senkakus impeding better ties with Japan: China - Japan Times

A senior Chinese politician said Friday it would not be too difficult to pave the way for mending bilateral relations with Japan if Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stopped visiting war-related Yasukuni Shrine and his government admitted there is a sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku Islands.

Yu Zhengsheng, the fourth-highest ranking member of the Communist Party of China, told a group of Japanese ruling party lawmakers in Beijing that the two are major conditions for resuming dialogue with the Abe government, one of the lawmakers said.

“The current difficult situation is created by Prime Minister (Shinzo) Abe. If he grows out of his former self and he reaches out to China, it will not be impossible for China to respond,” former Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, a member of the group, quoted Yu as saying during the meeting.

Amid bilateral relations badly frayed over territorial and historical issues, Yu decided to meet with the lawmakers, who are from Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and have with close connections with China.

“Currently, there are some difficulties diplomatically. But I believe friendly exchanges like this, and exchanges between the private sector and companies should be continued,” Yu said at the outset of the meeting at the Great Hall of the People.

He added the two countries should be “friendly neighbors” and believes they can overcome the current difficult situation by “efforts of both sides.”

The meeting comes at a time when the Chinese leadership is showing a slight shift in its approach toward Tokyo in the absence of almost no high-level government-to-government dialogue.

While continuing to criticize Japan’s control of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and Abe’s views regarding wartime history, China has recently become more positive about promoting exchanges between parliamentarians, local government officials and business organizations.

The delegation’s three-day visit to Beijing started Wednesday, just a day after another group of Japanese lawmakers from ruling and opposition parties left the Chinese capital.

On Monday, the group led by Masahiko Komura, vice president of the LDP, held talks with Zhang Dejiang, ranked third in the CPC’s powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee.

During the meeting, which lasted about an hour, Komura told Zhang that Abe is hoping to hold an official meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping when Xi hosts a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November in Beijing.

Because Abe’s visit in December to Yasukuni Shrine — which honors Japanese leaders convicted as Class-A war criminals by an Allied tribunal along with millions of war dead — further irked China, political relations between the two countries have remained at their lowest ebb.

Abe and Xi have yet to hold official talks since they each came to office more than a year ago. Still, China’s decision to arrange the two meetings in a week with the members of the CPC’s top echelon reflects a slight shift in the leadership’s approach to Japan.

Speaking at a press conference Wednesday in Brussels, Abe, however, again called for a resumption of talks with China without conditions.

“My door for dialogue is always open. I hope China will take a similar attitude,” Abe said.

Japan’s long-held position is that the Senkakus are an inherent part of its territory and that there is no territorial dispute to be settled.

[Samudragupta]

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depend on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1stwar mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interests, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.

The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the whole Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is quite probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.

THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.

Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (currently named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.

What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)

The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?

THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.

We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be prepared to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.

In this moment, the previous four wars have been settles. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.

THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.

After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions

http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/15914

[SSridhar]

Philippines says ASEAN must tackle China's sea claims - Straits Times

Philippine President Benigno Aquino on Saturday urged fellow Southeast Asian leaders to face up to the threat posed by China's contentious claims to most of the South China Sea as they headed to a regional summit.

Manila filed a case at a UN tribunal in March, challenging Chinese claims to most of the strategic sea.

Mr Aquino said he would discuss the case's regional implications with fellow Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) leaders meeting in Myanmar. Even though not all Asean members are involved in maritime territorial disputes with China, Mr Aquino said the issue concerned the security of the region as a whole.

"We wish to emphasise, uphold and follow the rule of law in resolving these territorial issues so that the rights of all countries involved will be recognised and respected," he said in a speech at Manila airport.

[SSridhar]

UN Secy Gen urges calm from Vietnam, China - Straits Times

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon called on China and Vietnam to "exercise the utmost restraint" in the South China Sea, UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said on Friday.

Mr Ban "noted with concern the escalating tensions in the South China Sea, in particular between China and Vietnam," the spokesman said in a brief statement.

"He urges the parties concerned to exercise the utmost restraint and resolve their dispute in a peaceful manner, through dialogue and in conformity with international law, including the UN Charter."

[SSridhar]

Asean to call on parties in South China Sea disputes to follow international law - Straits Times

Asean takes seriously recent incidents in the South China Sea between China, Vietnam and the Philippines and will issue a statement calling on all parties to act in accordance with international law, Singapore Foreign Minister K Shanmugam said on Saturday in Myanmar.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting of Asean foreign ministers at the grouping's 24th summit, Mr Shanmugam said the incidents this week were of "grave concern" and make clear the urgent need for a Code of Conduct to manage disputes in the region. {But, China is unwilling to have such a Code of Conduct and has been dragging its feet for some years now on this issue. it also wants to tackle individual countries and not collectively through ASEAN or the UNCLOS}

"There was a unanimous agreement that Asean has to take it seriously, has to issue a stand alone statement, and if Asean did not do so, then Asean's credibility, which has already suffered over the last few years, would be further severely damaged," he said.

"This does not mean Asean has to take sides. Neutrality is not the same as keeping quiet."

[SSridhar]

Philippines jails captured Chinese fishermen for infringing wildlife law - Straits Times

The Philippines has jailed 11 Chinese fishermen caught with endangered sea turtles off a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, officials said on Saturday, rejecting demands from China to free the men.

China has claims on the South China Sea, an area rich in energy deposits and an important passageway traversed each year by US$5 trillion (S$6.24 trillion) worth of ship-borne goods. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the area.

The Philippine National Police on Tuesday intercepted a Chinese fishing boat carrying about 350 marine turtles off Half Moon Shoal in the Spratlys, arrested its crew and took them to the south-western province of Palawan to face charges of violating wildlife protection laws.

If found guilty, the fishermen, who were transferred to a provincial jail late on Friday, face prison terms ranging from 12 to 20 years. But each can post bail of 150,000 pesos (S$4,290) to secure temporary liberty while facing trial.

[SSridhar]

In High Seas, China Moves Unilaterally - Jane Perlez & Keith Bradsher, NYT

It is the pride of China’s state-run oil industry and the nation’s first deepwater drilling rig, a vessel as big as a football field and as tall as a 40-story building, with a $1 billion price tag. Last week, it crawled through the South China Sea, pulled by heavy-duty tugs, and parked in one of the most sensitive spots possible, about 17 miles off a speck of an island claimed by both China and Vietnam.

The Vietnamese, at times embraced in brotherly Communist Party fealty by China, were taken by surprise. Hanoi assumed the rig, known as HD-981, was just passing through, people close to the government said.

At least twice in recent years, China has sought to explore these waters and backed down after protests by Vietnam. Just six months ago, during a visit of the Chinese prime minister to Hanoi, the two sides announced that they would try to find ways to jointly develop oil and gas fields.

That good will evaporated this week when Beijing made clear the drilling rig was staying put. It set off four days of confrontation, with dozens of Chinese and Vietnamese naval vessels ramming one another and China using water cannons in a standoff that threatens to push a region known for its economic development toward military conflict.

China has not been shy in recent years about making broad claims to control much of the South China Sea. But by installing an expensive drilling rig in disputed waters, it now appears more willing to act first and invite diplomacy later. It is in effect creating “facts” in the water that its regional rivals, and ultimately the United States, must either accept or fight.

China signaled it would take unilateral steps last year, when it declared an air defense zone over parts of the East China Sea that includes islands at the center of a long-smoldering dispute with Japan. In the battle of wills with Vietnam, China has unleashed a new and potentially powerful tool in its battle for territory: its oil industry and the rigs a state oil-company official once called “our mobile national territory.”

The deployment of the rig is a possible game changer in China’s determination to dominate the South China Sea, as oil exploration requires substantial investment and often protection, which in China’s case would be provided by its ships, including its navy.

“China has been taking incremental steps, escalating and increasing its presence in the South China Sea, but this is crossing a threshold,” said Holly Morrow, a fellow in the Geopolitics of Energy program at Harvard who served on the National Security Council in the George W. Bush administration.

It is unclear if China’s gambit will end up the way its leaders hope. Two years ago, China was able to nudge aside the Philippines from a disputed reef, without a fight, by simply refusing to abide by an American-brokered agreement. The Philippines retreated, as promised. The Chinese did not, and have controlled the reef, the Scarborough Shoal, and its rich fishery ever since.

Vietnam has proved to be a tougher adversary, sending out its own ships to meet the Chinese flotilla and, according to Chinese government reports, using them to ram Chinese ships as many as 171 times in four days.

A prominent Vietnamese political analyst, Nguyen Quang A, summarized the standoff this way: “Invasion is in their blood, and resistance is in our blood.” {A very acurate description}

The timing of the move was perceived by some in the region as a test not only of the ability of Southeast Asian nations to stand up to their far more powerful northern neighbor, but also of President Obama’s resolve less than a month after he promised to support American allies in Asia as they deal with a stronger China.

China’s action was almost certainly a long-term plan — the deployment of a deep water drilling rig takes months of preparation. But a senior Asian diplomat with deep ties in the region said some officials were left with the impression after Mr. Obama’s visit that the United States was eager to avoid direct confrontation with China over its claims in the South China Sea.

At a news conference in Manila, Mr. Obama sidestepped a question about whether Washington would defend the Philippines if a territorial dispute with China became an armed conflict, instead saying “we don’t think that coercion and intimidation is the way to manage these disputes.” A few days earlier he had made a stronger statement of support for Japan in its maritime disputes with China.

On Friday, Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, said the United States had been clear that it opposed unilateral steps or the threat of force by the Chinese and that it was strengthening military ties with its allies, including the Philippines. The United States does not have a defense treaty with Vietnam.

“We have reaffirmed our support for our mutual defense treaties with allies in the region, and have supported the efforts of the Philippines to pursue international arbitration to resolve maritime disputes,” Mr. Rhodes said.
Continue reading the main story

Few believe that energy discoveries were the primary reason for the arrival of rig HD-981, which is owned by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or Cnooc, the state-run energy giant.

For decades, geologists and major energy companies have debated whether the seabed of the South China Sea holds commercially viable deposits of oil and gas. Many are skeptical, especially regarding the area around the Paracel Islands, which the rig expects to explore and which a 2013 assessment by the United States Energy Information Administration deemed to be especially unlikely to hold much oil or gas.

“Cnooc is a business but also a political actor,” said Ms. Morrow of Harvard. “It’s never about energy completely, it’s about sovereignty.”

Still, the company’s enthusiasm for drilling in the area may have been bolstered by three-dimensional seismic tests conducted last May and June, according to a report in the state run news agency, Xinhua.

Previously, only two-dimensional seismic surveys, which are less reliable, had been conducted, said Peter Dutton, professor and director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the United States Naval War College in Rhode Island.

Another incentive for drilling is that the site is close to two exploratory areas where Exxon Mobil discovered substantial oil and gas reserves in 2011 and 2012, energy lawyers in Hong Kong said.

“China’s location of the drilling rig in this block cannot be attributed solely to provocation,” Mr. Dutton said.

In Vietnam, the Chinese move is challenging the government’s delicate balancing act between strong anti-China sentiment and not wanting to get too close to the United States.

Hanoi maintains a military hotline with the People’s Liberation Army, while resisting Washington’s invitations to participate in joint military exercises and overtures for access to Cam Ranh Bay, a deepwater base on the South China Sea.

Still, Vietnam can ill afford to alienate China; it is increasingly economically dependent on China for cheap parts that are used in its growing manufacturing sector, and for hosting poor agrarian workers in southern China.

The Cnooc oil rig and other acts of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea over the past few months will now take center stage, according to Ernest Z. Bower and Gregory B. Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who posted an article on its website.

“There is no telling who will blink first,” they wrote.

[SSridhar]

Vietnam wants India to rise quickly in the region - ToI

MELBOURNE: Concerned over China's assertiveness in the South China sea, Vietnam wants India to "rise quickly" in the region.

"We are deeply concerned by Chinese assertiveness in the South China sea. The Chinese navy is acting without provocation. These decisions seem to be taken by the Chinese leadership at the highest level," said ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, president of Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam (DAV).

Quy said there was not much clarity in the Obama administration. "That is why we want India should rise quickly. We have great expectations from India," he said.

The remarks were made at a round table meeting of DAV held here yesterday.

DAV is said to carry out strategic research in international relations and foreign policy, as well as serve as a think-tank for foreign policy for the ministry of foreign affairs, the party and the state.

The meeting was held for the delegates to share information with Australian scholars around regional security issues such as US-China relations, maritime issues in the Indo pacific region and discuss more broadly Australia's engagement with Asia.

Reacting to DAV president's comment, Australia-India Institute inaugural director Amitabh Mattoo said: "Chinese assertiveness is bordering on aggressiveness and there seems to be a pattern to Chinese Maritime behaviour."

Clearly, Beijing believes that its time has come and it wants to exercise hegemony over the whole region. But this behaviour is short sighted and counter productive, he said.

Mattoo said China was losing the trust of its neighbours and losing all friends.

"Outside North Korea and Pakistan, there is not even one state that is not concerned by Chinese foreign policy behaviour," he added.

[SSridhar]

Kalakshetra Group Leading India's Soft Power Push into China - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

India is planning a year-long soft power push in more than a dozen Chinese cities by bringing classical dance troupes, Indian food festivals, first ever Bollywood events in China and even a social media campaign in an attempt to raise the country’s cultural profile, especially among younger Chinese.

“The effort will be India’s biggest ever attempt to reach out directly to the Chinese public,” Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha, who took over as the envoy here in January, told The Hindu .

Joint initiative

Detailing the initiative, he said the plan was unprecedented in being a first ever collaborative effort between India and provincial and local Chinese governments. Officials are hoping the initiative will also help boost the minuscule tourism traffic from China to India that has remained largely stagnant even as outbound Chinese travel across the world has boomed in the past decade.

“This is entirely a unique kind of joint venture between us and local institutions,” Mr. Kantha said. “What we are going to do is reach out to a much larger audience and to a newer set of people in China, especially the youth.”

On Sunday, the Kalakshetra classical dance repertory from Chennai will kick off the “Glimpse of India” festival with a dance drama inspired by the Ramayana at one of Beijing’s biggest venues, the Poly Theatre in the heart of the city.

The following day, the dance troupe will be hosted by the elite Tsinghua University, and will perform in front of several hundred students and faculty. Secretary of Culture Ravindra Singh, in Beijing for the launch, will also hold talks with Chinese Ministry of Culture officials on Monday to discuss expanding cultural interactions between the two countries.

Positive response

So far, officials said the initiative had received a very positive response on Chinese social media websites, where it has been advertised —India’s tourism office has around 43,000 followers on the Chinese Twitter equivalent Sina Weibo. About 800 people, who were reached out to on social media, will attend the Poly performance, besides invited guests.

Mr. Kantha acknowledged that so far, Chinese interest in travelling to India, despite the Buddhism connection, had remained low. More than 97 million Chinese travelled overseas in 2013 — more travellers than from any country but only around 1.6 lakh Chinese travel to India annually — less than 0.2 per cent of the total traffic. This has meant lost revenue of hundreds of millions of dollars — Chinese travellers are expected to spend $130 billion this year.

Chinese tour operators say the reasons for low interest included visa difficulties, a lack of robust promotion by India, shortage of Chinese-speaking tour guides and safety concerns. Mr. Kantha said at least two of those problems are being addressed. While the festival hopes to rekindle interest, the visa issue has been sorted out.

The year-long festival will also look to tap Chinese audiences beyond major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The Kalakshetra troupe, which performed in Shanghai earlier this week, will travel to Chengdu in Sichuan province next week.

Showcasing Bollywood

What is likely to appeal most to Chinese is a possible Bollywood event which could see a major star travel to the mainland for the first time, adding to considerable interest here in Indian films.

A quota limiting the screening of only two dozen foreign films in the mainland annually has seen Indian film companies show little enthusiasm in reaching out to the rapidly expanding domestic market despite wide interest, reflected in the millions of viewers who flock to watch Bollywood movies on popular Chinese film-sharing websites, which even subtitle every film.

A film industry delegation will for the first time travel to China later this year and hold talks with China’s State Administration for Radio, Film and Television, possibly finally opening the door to Indian film in China after a three-decade gap — in the 1970s, Indian films were the most popular foreign films in China, with actors such as Raj Kapoor still a household name here today.

[SSridhar]

Tokyo to get PAC-3 Missile batteries - Japan Times

The Defense Ministry is planning to deploy missile batteries in central Tokyo within three years to shield the capital from potential attacks, informed sources said.

The move is designed to beef up the capital’s defenses against ballistic missiles from North Korea, the sources said.

The plan makes use of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system, which would be deployed at the Self-Defense Forces’ headquarters in the Ichigaya district in Shinjuku Ward as early as fiscal 2017.

Construction of the facilities will begin this fall, they said.

If ballistic missiles look like they’re headed for Japanese territory, the SDF will first order Aegis-equipped destroyers to shoot them down from space using Standard Missile-3 interceptors.

If that fails, the PAC-3 is the next line of defense, but its missiles only have a range of about 20 km.

PAC-3 batteries have been deployed to four places near Tokyo, including the SDF’s Narashino camp in Chiba Prefecture and the Iruma Base in Saitama. Tokyo has none.

In April 2013, PAC-3 interceptors were tentatively shifted to the SDF’s Ichigaya base from Narashino amid more bellicose rhetoric from North Korea.

The ministry has concluded that shifting PAC-3 batteries to Tokyo only when necessary is not sufficient to protect the capital, the sources said.

[Christopher Sidor]

Wow, China is simultaneously poking Japan, Vietnam and Philippines.

It is doing that because there is a serious doubt about American capacity and intention w.r.t American treaty commitments to Japan and other countries in East Asia. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons under a treaty which guaranteed its territorial integrity, a binding treaty which was signed by America. Crimea got invaded and returned to its rightful country. And what did NATO and America do? sent warplanes to the Baltic, everywhere but the Black Sea.

In fact America will fight everybody but the countries which have nukes. So PRC knows that it can practically get away with murder. The only thing stopping the thugs of PLAN, PLAN, PLAAF is the fear held by CPC of American economic might. But even now that is changing. Slowly PRC is displacing US as the biggest trading partner of many countries. When it has displaced US as the biggest trading partner of all the countries of G20 then the shooting will start. Take a ring side seat, it is going to be fun.

[SSridhar]

ASEAN backs off criticizing China amid growing tension - Japan Times

YANGON/NAYPYITAW – Vietnam’s prime minister told southeast Asian leaders Sunday that China was slandering his country and committing dangerous violations in disputed waters, but the 10-nation ASEAN group refrained from criticizing Beijing in a summit communique.

Tensions rose in the resource-rich South China Sea last week after China positioned a giant oil rig in an area also claimed by Vietnam. Each country accused the other of ramming its ships near the disputed Paracel Islands.

Hundreds of Vietnamese rallied in the country’s biggest cities Sunday to denounce China, in rare protests that looked likely to prolong the tense standoff.

Speaking to fellow leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at a summit in Myanmar, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said Vietnam had acted with “utmost restraint” and used all means of dialogue to request China remove the rig.

“But until now, China not only hasn’t responded to Vietnam’s rightful request but also slandered and blamed Vietnam while increasing their violations, which are becoming more dangerous and serious,” he said, in his strongest comments yet on the crisis.

China has accused Vietnam of intentionally colliding with its ships in the South China Sea, after Vietnam asserted that Chinese vessels used water cannon and rammed eight of its vessels at the weekend near an oil rig.

ASEAN, a loose grouping that relies on unanimous consensus to reach decisions, faced a test of unity at the summit as some members expressed alarm over China’s growing assertiveness and pushed for a strong statement.

The group’s foreign ministers voiced “serious concerns” on Saturday over the naval clashes between Vietnam and China and its top official urged Beijing to step up efforts to advance talks on maritime security.

ASEAN, however, appeared unwilling to risk antagonizing China, which exerts huge political and economic influence over much of the region. Neither Myanmar President Thein Sein’s opening speech nor the final statement of the summit Sunday touched on the China-Vietnam dispute.

Dung urged ASEAN and other nations to “support the legal and legitimate requirements of Vietnam.”

China’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement late Saturday, said the issue was not “a problem between China and ASEAN” and that it opposed certain member states trying to use it to sow discord. That was an apparent reference to Vietnam and the Philippines, two of the most vocal countries on the South China Sea dispute.

“The Chinese side is always opposed to certain countries’ attempts to use the South Sea issue to harm the overall friendship and cooperation between China and the ASEAN,” it said.

The escalation risks spilling over to separate territorial disputes between Japan and China in the East China Sea. Russia has recently stepped up air patrols around parts of North Asia, adding to the pressure.

“Japan will surely take advantage of the South China Sea tensions to advocate its ‘China Threat Theory,’ “according to Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Japan will likely support or aid Vietnam and the Philippines in challenging China and make the situation even worse,” Liu said by phone.

China’s actions come after President Barack Obama’s visit last month to Asia to reassure allies of the U.S. commitment to its strategic rebalance to the region. Still, Obama said the U.S. was not seeking to contain or control China and, speaking in Manila, he said the focus of U.S. foreign policy had shifted from deploying combat troops to “avoiding errors.”

‘”I’m sure some in China are keen to see how far they can go,” said Mark Beeson, professor of international politics at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia. “The big question is whether this is a coordinated, top-down policy approved by Xi Jinping,” or “whether there’s quite a bit of ad hoc policy freelancing by the PLA and provincial governments,” he said, a reference to the People’s Liberation Army.

Xi is expanding China’s naval reach to back its claims to the South China Sea that are based on the “nine-dash line” map, first published in 1947. That claim extends hundreds of kilometers south from China’s Hainan Island to equatorial waters off the coast of Borneo. China and Vietnam both claim the Paracel Islands, and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines have claims to other areas.

Still, the statement from ASEAN foreign ministers touching on the disputes is not a major achievement for the grouping, according to Beeson. “There’s clearly some reluctance on the part of some members to do anything to upset China and very little real solidarity or common purpose beyond face saving,” he said by email.

ASEAN leaders during their meeting talked of the need for solidarity in promoting the rule of law, according to Philippine President Benigno Aquino III’s spokesman, Sonny Coloma. They also expressed their desire for a peaceful settlement of the disputes, he told reporters. The Philippines has sought international arbitration for its territorial spat with China.

Southeast Asian foreign ministers separately met Saturday in Naypyitaw and said afterward in a statement that South China Sea claimants should “avoid actions which could undermine peace and stability in the area.”

ASEAN is seeking a code of conduct for the waters, with talks making little progress since China agreed in July to start discussions, and China introducing fishing rules in January requiring foreign vessels to seek permission before entering waters off its southern coast.

ASEAN foreign ministers view the tensions as a matter of “grave concern,” Singapore Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam told reporters. “ASEAN needs to be neutral, but ASEAN cannot stay silent,” he said. “For the benefit of the entire region, there has to be peace. There should be no mishaps. Mishaps can easily get out of hand. And tensions, mishaps, incidents, if they result in the disputes becoming larger, it’s bad for all of us.”

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario said he was satisfied with the ASEAN statements.

“I think we are united and we are projecting centrality,” he told reporters Sunday. “I think the expression of the situation there is descriptive enough.”

[SSridhar]

Hanoi OKs anti-China street rally - Japan Times

Protesters staged one of Vietnam’s largest ever anti-China demonstrations Sunday, decrying Beijing’s deployment of a deep-water drilling rig in contested waters as territorial tensions soar.

Some 1,000 people, from war veterans to students, waved banners saying “China don’t steal our oil” and “Silence is cowardly” — a dig at Hanoi’s handling of the dispute — while singing patriotic songs in a park opposite the Chinese Embassy.

“This is the largest anti-Chinese demonstration I have ever seen in Hanoi,” said veteran Dang Quang Thang, 74.

“Our patience has limits. We are here to express the will of the Vietnamese people to defend our territory at all costs. We are ready to die to protect our nation,” he said

Hundreds of plainclothes and uniformed police set up barricades to prevent protesters from approaching the Chinese Embassy compound but made no move to break up the rowdy demonstration, even though the communist regime normally tightly controls any public expression of discontent.

Dozens of anti-China demonstrations have been held in Vietnam since 2007 to protest Beijing’s perceived aggression over territory.

The two countries are locked in long-standing territorial disputes over the Paracel and Spratly islands, which both claim, and often trade diplomatic barbs over oil exploration and fishing rights in the contested waters.

Tensions between the communist neighbors have risen sharply since China unilaterally announced in early May it would move a deep-water drilling rig into disputed waters — a move the United States has described as “provocative.”

Vietnam said China’s decision was “illegal,” demanded the rig be withdrawn, and dispatched vessels to the area — which it claims were subsequently attacked and rammed by Chinese ships.

Vietnam has alternated between tolerating anti-China rallies and violently breaking them up. The communist regime is wary of public gatherings that could threaten its authoritarian rule.

However, on Sunday it appeared there was a pro-government faction within the demonstration, including young protesters clad in T-shirts bearing the image of Vietnam’s revered founding father, Ho Chi Minh, waving the communist hammer and sickle flag while shouting “Down with China!”

Other dissident-aligned factions at the protest were more critical of the Vietnamese government’s handling of the dispute and used the opportunity to call for changes to the one-party state.

“We want to send a message to the Vietnamese government also — they are responsible for this situation,” demonstrator Tran Xuan Bach said.

Protests also broke out in central Danang town and southern Ho Chi Minh City Sunday.

Vietnam’s tightly controlled state media have covered the oil rig dispute closely and reported on the demonstrations. There was no official comment from the government.

[SSridhar]

India need not worry too much about South China Sea tensions: China - New Indian Express

Irked by India voicing its concern over the tensions in the South China Sea, China today said Indian people need "not worry too much" about the issue.

"I have so many times stated China's position on South China Sea. I wish to tell Indian people that they may not worry too much about the current situation in South China Sea (SCS)," Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying told a media briefing here Monday.

Hua's remarks came in response to India voicing its "concern" over the recent developments in the South China Sea where Chinese and Vietnamese ships are locked in a tense standoff.

China's oil rig's attempts for oil exploration in the waters of disputed islands claimed by both countries have escalated tensions.

"We have been following with concern recent developments in the South China Sea. We believe that maintenance of peace, stability, growth and prosperity in the region is of vital interest to the international community," a spokesperson in the External Affairs Ministry had said in New Delhi last week.

Hua said China and the Association of South East Asian Nations have made a Declaration of the Code of Conduct (DOC) for the peace and stability of the SCS.

"We hope relevant parties will work with same direction towards China and make relentless efforts to this end," she said.

China was very critical of reactions by the US and Japan over the SCS last week.

China objected to India's ONGC taking part in the drilling in the area specified by Vietnam which Beijing termed as disputed.

[DavidD]

Wow, China is simultaneously poking Japan, Vietnam and Philippines.

It is doing that because there is a serious doubt about American capacity and intention w.r.t American treaty commitments to Japan and other countries in East Asia. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons under a treaty which guaranteed its territorial integrity, a binding treaty which was signed by America. Crimea got invaded and returned to its rightful country. And what did NATO and America do? sent warplanes to the Baltic, everywhere but the Black Sea.

In fact America will fight everybody but the countries which have nukes. So PRC knows that it can practically get away with murder. The only thing stopping the thugs of PLAN, PLAN, PLAAF is the fear held by CPC of American economic might. But even now that is changing. Slowly PRC is displacing US as the biggest trading partner of many countries. When it has displaced US as the biggest trading partner of all the countries of G20 then the shooting will start. Take a ring side seat, it is going to be fun.

If China becomes the biggest trading partner of all of the G20, no shooting will be needed. War is last resort diplomacy, but if China can become the biggest trading partner of even Canada (BTW, I don't foresee that happening in our lifetime), then it'll be such a gargantuan economy that even if shooting is needed, the Chinese won't have to pull the trigger themselves.

[Cosmo_R]

Here's a hidden mace

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 035778.cms

"As relations between China and Japan plumb a new low, the descendants of hundreds of of Chinese men forced to work in wartime Japan are taking big, modern-day Japanese corporates to court. They are seeking millions in compensation.

Japan invaded China in 1937 and ruled parts of it with a brutal hand for the next eight years. Chinese historians say nearly 40,000 men were taken to Japan against their will to work in mines and construction. Survivors say living conditions were appalling. Many did not make it back to China. "

So what's to stop Tibetans and Uighurs from suing PRC in class action lawsuits for the same?

Inquiring mindz wants to know

[DavidD]

Here's a hidden mace

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 035778.cms

"As relations between China and Japan plumb a new low, the descendants of hundreds of of Chinese men forced to work in wartime Japan are taking big, modern-day Japanese corporates to court. They are seeking millions in compensation.

Japan invaded China in 1937 and ruled parts of it with a brutal hand for the next eight years. Chinese historians say nearly 40,000 men were taken to Japan against their will to work in mines and construction. Survivors say living conditions were appalling. Many did not make it back to China. "

So what's to stop Tibetans and Uighurs from suing PRC in class action lawsuits for the same?

Inquiring mindz wants to know

They weren't forced to work against their will?

[SSridhar]

China gets [only] thinly veiled rebuke from ASEAN - AFP, The Hindu

Southeast Asian leaders have expressed “serious concern” over worsening territorial disputes in the South China Sea, presenting a rare united front against an increasingly assertive Beijing.

Vietnam and the Philippines led a successful push for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to deliver a thinly veiled rebuke to China over the standoff in waters home to key shipping lanes and thought to contain huge energy reserves.

The 10-nation Asean, in a statement released on Monday after a summit on Sunday, called for a peaceful resolution to the maritime rows, which flared up this month after China moved an oil drilling rig into waters also claimed by Hanoi.

Observers said the statement marked a change of tone by the regional bloc.

[Arihant]

Here's a hidden mace

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 035778.cms

"As relations between China and Japan plumb a new low, the descendants of hundreds of of Chinese men forced to work in wartime Japan are taking big, modern-day Japanese corporates to court. They are seeking millions in compensation.

Japan invaded China in 1937 and ruled parts of it with a brutal hand for the next eight years. Chinese historians say nearly 40,000 men were taken to Japan against their will to work in mines and construction. Survivors say living conditions were appalling. Many did not make it back to China. "

So what's to stop Tibetans and Uighurs from suing PRC in class action lawsuits for the same?

Inquiring mindz wants to know

They weren't forced to work against their will?

Google "Gulags of Tibet"....

[vijaykarthik]

WOW. Now they have deployed subs near the rig. this seems like real rigging?

Subs deployed

Why Did China Set Up an Oil Rig Within Vietnamese Waters?

Why now and why Vietnam?

The enduring question, as with many of China’s provocative actions in the Asia-Pacific, remains why? The opacity of China’s internal decision-making processes makes it rather difficult to conclusively answer that question, but a good amount of evidence suggests that the oil rig crisis with Vietnam was manufactured to test the mettle of ASEAN states and the United States. It gives Beijing an opportunity to gauge the international response to China asserting its maritime territorial claims.

As Carl Thayer points out on this blog and M. Taylor Fravel said in an interview with The New York Times, the China National Offshore Oil Company’s decision to move oil rig HD-981 was a premeditated move of territorial assertion. CNOOC may be a state-owned enterprise but the decision to move this $1 billion asset into an area with questionable hydrocarbon reserves while also inciting a diplomatic crisis speaks to the planned, political nature of this move. The fact that approximately 80 PLAN and Chinese coast guard ships accompanied the rig reinforces the notion that China was making a strategic push to assert its territorial claims in the region.

The question of why China chose to escalate with Vietnam specifically is perhaps slightly easier to answer. Several analysts have already noted that China caught the world off-guard by choosing to escalate its territorial dispute with Vietnam given that relations between the two countries were improving as recently as fall 2013. Additionally, a certain degree of camaraderie exists between the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For China to suddenly risk a relatively stable bilateral relationship through an underlying rivalry seemed brazen and irresponsible.

On the contrary, if China had to push any dispute in the South China Sea to test the mettle of the United States and ASEAN, Vietnam was perhaps the most fitting candidate. As Tuong Vu told the New York Times, a political debate exists within Vietnam about whether the country should remain close to China or pursue closer relations with the west, with the former faction wielding considerably more influence. With this in mind, China gambled with a good degree of confidence that despite the oil rig provocation, Vietnam would respond with rhetoric and restraint — not force.

To this end, only Chinese coast guard vessels rammed Vietnamese ships and hit them with water cannons — the PLAN remained in a support function, ensuring that whatever kinetic coercion was used was not explicitly originating from a military vessel (although Vietnam did not entirely buy this interpretation). Furthermore, before China can begin trying its luck with U.S. allies in the region, such the Philippines, which recently signed a ten-year defense facility sharing deal with the United States, it must see if the United States is willing to defend its self-stated interests in the region.

Whereas with the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan the United States is treaty-bound to take action, in the case of other disputes in the South China Sea, particularly the Paracel Islands dispute between Vietnam and China, all the United States has to do is demonstrate that it is willing to stand up for the interests it has identified in the past, including freedom of navigation, the peaceful resolution of all conflicts, and the non-use of coercion and intimidation in disputes. With HD-981, China has challenged the United States on all three. Additionally, given ExxonMobil’s interests in the waters, HD-981 is also impeding U.S. commercial interests in the region. So far, the United States’ response — a statement calling China’s behavior “provocative” — is insufficiently costly to China to deter such behavior in the future.

Finally, China timed this coercive move as U.S. President Barack Obama left Asia and just prior to the meeting of ASEAN Heads of Government/State in Naypyidaw, Myanmar this past weekend. In doing so, China was taking a risk: the move would doubtless draw massive international attention and condemnation. However, as the ASEAN Summit statement demonstrates, China still has an assurance that regional leaders are insufficiently united to put forth a joint front against Chinese coercion in the South China Sea. While it is significant that ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a separate statement, the “internationalization” of disputes that China dreads has not yet come to pass (and likely will not anytime soon).

Similarly, as the United States grows old, weary and underfunded as the global policeman, this oil rig debacle sits in the same category of global crises as Syria and Ukraine — just without the same sort of political urgency. By avoiding a U.S. treaty ally or major partner, China seeks to paint the U.S. as unable to assert its interests in the region. A negative consequence of this is that other states engaged in territorial disputes with China will seek to unilaterally militarize to offset their reliance on U.S. security guarantees, potentially creating a headache for China later in the future.

The decision to move oil rig HD-981 into disputed waters matches China’s decision to impose an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea in terms of signaling China’s appetite to unilaterally pursue its maritime territorial claims. China has said that the oil rig will remain in these waters until August this year. What ultimately sets this episode apart from any other is that it is the first time China has placed an asset this expensive within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of another state. And Vietnam isn’t a pushover of a state either — it has a more-than-modest maritime capacity that could result in an armed altercation with China. Overall, in the past six months, we’ve seen China more assertive than ever in pursuing its claims and, for the moment, it is succeeding.

[SSridhar]

Nuclear India not a threat to China: Chinese analyst

This is not an affirmation of friendship etc. The Chinese have always been condescendingly dismissing India as a second-rate power not worthy of Chinese attention. This analyst has reiterated that.

ISLAMABAD – Hou Hongyue, research fellow at China People’s Association for Peace and Disarmament, has said that US-India deal and ballistic missile defence system are negative developments for regional stability and the international community must act responsibly.

Addressing an international conference on nuclear deterrence and emerging dynamics in South Asia, he said that China does not consider India as a nuclear threat. Hou also stated that the developments of global missile defence system by the US were posing serious challenges to the international strategic stability.