X-Posting from Waging war for geopolitical gains
You know we had this WTF moment, when we suddenly find a Chinese living under our bed, as happened in PoK with the 11,000 PLA soldiers reported there. And then we start asking ourselves, how come we did not notice the creep creeping all over our backyard.
We have had similar moments when the Chinese cornered Shwe Gas Fields from right under our noses, after we had found gas deposits there. Or when we found out that the Chinese Navy would be having a big presence in Sittwe, Hambantota and Gwadar. Or when we found out that Chittagong, a loss of territory and strategic freedom that India has long mourned is suddenly going to be a Chinese commercial port. Or when we found out that the Chinese have built up an impressive infrastructure on their side of Tibet. Or when we found out that Tibet is just full of missiles pointed at India. And earlier when we found out that China had been testing and gifting nuclear weapons to Pakistan. Also can we remember the time when we were puzzled that China did not want to sanction JuD as a terrorist organization even after Mumbai 26/11 and insisted on more evidence? Even China's sudden resistance to Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Deal during the NSG negotiations in Vienna in 2008 after the pipsqueaks had shut up came as a surprise to us as if out of the blue. We, Indians, even get surprised when we find out that China is not enthusiastic about India's candidacy for a UNSC Permanent Seat. 1962 India-China War simply the precursor of more surprises.
We Indians keep on thinking that China would take into consideration India's core concerns, but the Chinese keep on pushing the envelope. We keep on thinking China will not go that far to antagonize India, and then we are unprepared and surprised.
So here is the next WOW moment coming up in the next 3-4 years. The Terai Plains would be awash with Chinese people doing business in Nepal and setting up shop and residence there. They will be having a direct train service from Kathmandu to Beijing in a couple of years after that. In 6-7 years we would be seeing a PLA army base in Nepal at the invitation of the Maoists in Nepal.
So GoI is good at observing. In the coming years GoI probably would give out press briefings at regular intervals that we have had discussions with the Nepalese Government and they have satisfied our concerns. There is no need to worry. We are observing the situation closely. When the PLA Army Base comes up in Nepal 3-4 km from Indian territory, all of us would suddenly wake up to the danger and be in panic. After a month GoI will go back to the same routine of observing and talking.
The question is: is the GoI going to do something about it? Do we want PLA to be sitting in the Indian Subcontinent? And here is a hint. There is no way around this without getting our hands very dirty.
Let's remember, in Pakistan, an Islamism-infested country, PLA would dare not get involved directly, but Nepal is Maoist only so no problem. We will soon be seeing a DMZ coming up between Nepal and India. The Maoists would be asking for Chinese help because for some reason or another they would be pleading they see themselves threatened by India. Indians will try to ameliorate their concerns but there is no satisfying when it is all for show. Then the Maoists would ask for Chinese help and China would be willing to introduce PLA into the Terai plains.
So if India wants to do something, while there are people in Nepal like Royalists who do not particularly like the Maoists, then the time is now, while China does not have the capability to project land force south of the Himalayas.
India has a ready made reason to attack Nepal and occupy it - the Maoists were supplying weapons to Naxalites in India. India needs to consolidate the Indian Subcontinent before the Chinese become too strong in 'South Asia'.