Managing Chinese Threat

[Pulikeshi]

Published August, 2010
By Robert Kaplan
South Asia's Geography of Conflict: Center for A New American Security (pdf)

Waiting for the book to show up, in the meanwhile WSJ has this with Gurucharan Das.
Partly agree with Mr. Das, but the key is for an Indian view of 'Asia' to come about.
Is it a Brihat-Asia that encompasses Europe to Japan - with India at the center?
In this sense, the Indian Ocean Kshetra becomes a key pivot between West (Europe),
Near-West (Middle-East) and East (Orient) Brihat-Asia.
This idea needs to be explored further in redefining the world.

The Next Battleground

Mr. Kaplan, whose books include "Balkan Ghosts" and "Warrior Politics," has a gift for geopolitical imagination. Maps do matter, he feels, and the right map can stimulate thinking about the future of the world.

[Pulikeshi]

India and China - David M Malone at ANU, 20 April 2010

[Pratyush]

First of all, we need to win back the land that rightfully belongs to us - PoK/CoK. Then we need to subdue our neighborhood to not pursue anti-Indian alliances. All these are not against PRC directly, so they would not be able to make that claim convincingly.

Reclaiming of COK and Tibet is the end game. But please consider, No one will care if the wider world does not believe the cliams of the CCP. All that matters to the CCP is for the Honest Hans to believe that they have been conspired against by the imperlists to prevent the PRC from taking its rightful place is in the world.

They will stand by the CCP when push comes to shove. To counter that one of the things India and like minded powers need to do is to start a "Radio Free China". To communicate with the honest hans (I claim the trade mark on this term ) in the PRC about the CCP. It may not be very effective but will give an alternate view point to the Honest han. For him to take his stance.

[naren]

To counter that one of the things India and like minded powers need to do is to start a "Radio Free China". To communicate with the honest hans (I claim the trade mark on this term ) in the PRC about the CCP. It may not be very effective but will give an alternate view point to the Honest han. For him to take his stance.

Taiwan can be a good platform to do that. May be HK too. It must look like an "inside job" -- Han job, if you will . We need to create "democratic non state Han actors" - the faithful bearded warriors who fight for the unification & democracy of the great Han, full plausible deniability for its funders.

Another area to look at is the tech savvy younger generation. Penetrate the hacker networks - must be very easy, all it must take is fluency in mandarin. Use them to deliver messages inside mainland. Feasibilty of crypto networks like TOR needs to be explored. I've heard of Chinese netizens regularly using some kind of VPN to access haram content. (May be our good friend Tony can enlighten us about the tools he uses to watch ahem ahem ) I dont think the great firewall of China is as invincible as it is portrayed to be. (Point in case, China the #2 spam haven of the world)

[Dhiman]

PIt is a good thing that India still keeps majority share of companies in Indian hands, especially in strategic industries.

I have had some thoughts on this issues and they are still not completely clear, but here it is: The issue is not just about giving up control over domestic assets and resources, it's about giving up control over domestic assets and resources in exchange for a worthless international fiat currency that is loosing its perceived value day by day. So if I sell my desi company and hence the domestic market which the company controls to a foreign entity for $1 billion, then I have sold something tangible in return for something that is completely intangible (a fiat currency) because if $1 billion buys X amount of goods and services today, but it will probably buy a lot less goods and services in future when I get around to spending this money.

The global reserve currency (US dollar) is cheap, easily produced (printing press), and has no real value besides the value that comes out of human perception. Hence today, international currency is more of an instrumentation of gaining control through deception rather than as a means for easily transferring value from one entity to another (the role that currencies have fulfilled historically).

[RajeshA]

Dhiman ji,

That is an additional factor, why India should not be offering any majority shares in Indian companies.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from Waging war for geopolitical gains

You know we had this WTF moment, when we suddenly find a Chinese living under our bed, as happened in PoK with the 11,000 PLA soldiers reported there. And then we start asking ourselves, how come we did not notice the creep creeping all over our backyard.

We have had similar moments when the Chinese cornered Shwe Gas Fields from right under our noses, after we had found gas deposits there. Or when we found out that the Chinese Navy would be having a big presence in Sittwe, Hambantota and Gwadar. Or when we found out that Chittagong, a loss of territory and strategic freedom that India has long mourned is suddenly going to be a Chinese commercial port. Or when we found out that the Chinese have built up an impressive infrastructure on their side of Tibet. Or when we found out that Tibet is just full of missiles pointed at India. And earlier when we found out that China had been testing and gifting nuclear weapons to Pakistan. Also can we remember the time when we were puzzled that China did not want to sanction JuD as a terrorist organization even after Mumbai 26/11 and insisted on more evidence? Even China's sudden resistance to Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Deal during the NSG negotiations in Vienna in 2008 after the pipsqueaks had shut up came as a surprise to us as if out of the blue. We, Indians, even get surprised when we find out that China is not enthusiastic about India's candidacy for a UNSC Permanent Seat. 1962 India-China War simply the precursor of more surprises.

We Indians keep on thinking that China would take into consideration India's core concerns, but the Chinese keep on pushing the envelope. We keep on thinking China will not go that far to antagonize India, and then we are unprepared and surprised.

So here is the next WOW moment coming up in the next 3-4 years. The Terai Plains would be awash with Chinese people doing business in Nepal and setting up shop and residence there. They will be having a direct train service from Kathmandu to Beijing in a couple of years after that. In 6-7 years we would be seeing a PLA army base in Nepal at the invitation of the Maoists in Nepal.

So GoI is good at observing. In the coming years GoI probably would give out press briefings at regular intervals that we have had discussions with the Nepalese Government and they have satisfied our concerns. There is no need to worry. We are observing the situation closely. When the PLA Army Base comes up in Nepal 3-4 km from Indian territory, all of us would suddenly wake up to the danger and be in panic. After a month GoI will go back to the same routine of observing and talking.

The question is: is the GoI going to do something about it? Do we want PLA to be sitting in the Indian Subcontinent? And here is a hint. There is no way around this without getting our hands very dirty.

Let's remember, in Pakistan, an Islamism-infested country, PLA would dare not get involved directly, but Nepal is Maoist only so no problem. We will soon be seeing a DMZ coming up between Nepal and India. The Maoists would be asking for Chinese help because for some reason or another they would be pleading they see themselves threatened by India. Indians will try to ameliorate their concerns but there is no satisfying when it is all for show. Then the Maoists would ask for Chinese help and China would be willing to introduce PLA into the Terai plains.

So if India wants to do something, while there are people in Nepal like Royalists who do not particularly like the Maoists, then the time is now, while China does not have the capability to project land force south of the Himalayas.

India has a ready made reason to attack Nepal and occupy it - the Maoists were supplying weapons to Naxalites in India. India needs to consolidate the Indian Subcontinent before the Chinese become too strong in 'South Asia'.

[Hari Seldon]

^^+1 only.

RajeshA saar,

The above is a tour de force. Truly forceful. Thanks for posting.

[RajeshA]

Hari Seldon ji

Thanks.

X-Posting from Waging war for geopolitical gains

I am coming to the opinion, that there is a lot of smoke and mirrors that has been put up by China:

1. Kashmir: The 'Azadi' movement in J&K has been in full force since 1989. We have had the Hurry-Rats and so many groups all fighting for 'azadi'. Pakistan has been using proxies and non-state actors, and claiming plausible deniability for the Western press. The disturbance in Kashmir has diverted India's attention to other problematic areas, like Naxalism.
2. Pakistan: All this has been taking place under the shadow of Pakistani nukes, gifted to them by China. The vehemence shown by Pakistan, the daring shown by Pakistan has all been due to the protective hand of PRC. In fact PRC has used Pakistan's tendency to be open and vocal about its enmity with India, to mask that PRC is responsible for the consistency in Pakistan's attitude. More importantly Pakistan has succeeded in diverting India's attention away from other major areas in our periphery which are sliding out of India's influence, chiefly Nepal and Myanmar.
3. Nepal: Nepal would be used to divert India's attention away from Sri Lanka.
4. Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka would be used to divert India's attention away from Maldives.
5. ityadi, ityadi....

India's enemies have forced India's security forces to become fire-fighters, but the job of arsonists is infinitely more easy than that of fire-fighters. No country which is constantly in fire-fighting mode would ever think of consolidation of its periphery, much less entertain geopolitical ambitions.

Therefore India's desire for national consolidation would fail unless we stop the routes, the arsonists use to supply more oil to those fires, raging in India. When China set out to do nation building, first and foremost China consolidated and hardened its periphery and then the middle, which is still work in progress. India on the other hand tried to do it the other way round, to harden the middle before venturing into our periphery. India's North-East is still a forgotten region. This strategy has however allowed external forces to take over our periphery, and then continue their drive to sabotage our national consolidation project, as we have both a shrunk core and a weak peripheral defense. This allows others to walk through our outer gate and attack India in the living room.

We have to change this paradigm. Only if we reassert control over the periphery, would we have a chance at national reconciliation.

[RajeshA]

Published on Oct 18, 2010
By Nitin Pai
On the East Asian dance floor: Business Standard

A divide is emerging between countries that have a dispute with China, and countries that don’t. The former — a list that includes Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei — will seek greater security in the form of alliances with the United States and India.

India will have to go beyond defence and invest in building deep, broad and balanced economic relationships with these countries. As the experience with Russia has taught us, a merely defence-centred bilateral relationship can often be troublesome.

On the other side of the divide, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and even Australia — countries which do not have territorial disputes with China — while desiring an outcome where the big powers balance each other out, will be reluctant to do anything that might attract Beijing’s unpleasant attention. Not unlike the Hindu and Buddhist kingdoms of historical South East Asia that preserved their independence by paying nominal tribute to the Chinese Emperor in return for being left alone.

[Lalmohan]

the nominal tribute was paid to kubilai, the great khan and first yuan emperor. although subsequent dynasties assumed the ongoing rights, it is debatable whether such rights pass automatically to the new state/regime. particularly given the insular attitudes of the Ming dynasty and the non-royalist tendencies of the nationalists and then communists, such tributary relationships should be considered null and void and utterly anachronistic

[RajeshA]

The American View

Published on Oct 18, 2010
By Adm. James A. Lyons:
Retired Navy Adm. James A. Lyons was commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and senior U.S. military representative to the United Nations.
Countering China's aggression: Washington Times

It should be clear by now that China's Communist Party and People's Liberation Army refuse to value building military-to-military relationships as does the United States. The more we stress this goal, the more China is simply going to use it as a means to force U.S. concessions. For example, two presidents have failed to approve the sale of new F-16 aircraft and new conventional submarines to Taiwan in hopes that China will moderate its aggressive actions. China deftly employs the same psychology to prevent the United States from defending its interests in the useless six-party talks on North Korea while China's increasing support for North Korea allows Pyongyang's nuclear threat to grow.

On the other hand, China has no problem with advancing its priorities, which start with building the most powerful military in Asia as a direct challenge to the United States. In so doing, its intent is to place Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) nations in positions of strategic subordination as well as destroying the democratic system in Taiwan. Furthermore, from the 2020s onward, China intends to challenge the United States for global military supremacy. In short, China's goal is to make the world "safe" for the continued survival of the Chinese communist dictatorship. China's successes, if unchecked, will come only with diminished influence and freedoms for the United States as well as for our friends and allies.

[shaunb]

Cross posting from the Geopolitical thread. This one has some insights into some of the demographic, economic, and resource implications in China.

An interesting article on the Great Game. This one trying to portray that the US hegemony will continue till the dollar remains the world currency and the oil prices drops $25 in 2013-2015.
The Great Game by Charles Hugh Smith

[naren]

X-Posting from Waging war for geopolitical gains

You know we had this WTF moment, when we suddenly find a Chinese living under our bed, as happened in PoK with the 11,000 PLA soldiers reported there. And then we start asking ourselves, how come we did not notice the creep creeping all over our backyard.

Its because we fail to point finger at the right person. Unless the responsible person is identified and blamed, nothing's going to change. Unfortunately, democracy is "criticism driven". One little thing we can do as a service to our country is in addition to showing "how" we failed, we need to show "who" failed us.

[naren]

I am coming to the opinion, that there is a lot of smoke and mirrors that has been put up by China:

I think there's another angle: China is forcing our attention in the border in order to divert our attention from where it concerns China most - Indian Ocean. China provoked us in the border with all these probing and railway lines and forcing us to spend. Why ? Going by that Some-Zoo principles, I think this is what China is trying to do - so that our IOR capabilities are not focussed upon. We need to equally ramp up our capabilities in Andaman in addition to the North.

[TonyMontana]

Going by that Some-Zoo principles, I think this is what China is trying to do - so that our IOR capabilities are not focussed upon. We need to equally ramp up our capabilities in Andaman in addition to the North.

Argh. But is it "Sound East, Strike West"? Or is it "Deck the tree with false blossoms"?

[abhischekcc]

It sounds like 'crossing the sea in broad daylight' option

[TonyMontana]

It sounds like 'crossing the sea in broad daylight' option

Arg! Very good. You are indeed correct. But what is the real goal? The trillion dollar question remains.

[rohitvats]

With respect to the Nepal front (if I may use that word) - as per Ravi Rikhye (of Orbat.com), IA has already earmarked troops for this sector. IA has traditionaly - even as far back as 1960 - made contigency provisions to prevent ingress of PLA from this end.

[Murugan]

With respect to the Nepal front (if I may use that word) - as per Ravi Rikhye (of Orbat.com), IA has already earmarked troops for this sector. IA has traditionaly - even as far back as 1960 - made contigency provisions to prevent ingress of PLA from this end.

I like this.

The next step is to destroy threats and threat mongers - ideologically of course. and if required thru other means. Thread title will be in line "Destroying (such) threats and threatmongers."

India and her people are no more playing defensive to the threats of ali mawalis, dishonest, immoral neighbours like this and pukistanis.

[Murugan]

Just observe. ALL the statements of China's hostility towards India are coming from western 'scholars'. Even Stuxnet, which clearly targeted Iran (an Israeli area of concern) was attempted to be fathered upon China (for the purpose attacking India). I am afraid that western governments may just used a false flag operation to provoke hostilities betwee India and China.

Hindu Muslim enmity (british time)
India Pakistan wars (division aftermath)
India China hostilities (theatre of US-China hostilities)

are all false flags operations by wastern scholars and politicians.

[RajeshA]

Just observe. ALL the statements of China's hostility towards India are coming from western 'scholars'. Even Stuxnet, which clearly targeted Iran (an Israeli area of concern) was attempted to be fathered upon China (for the purpose attacking India). I am afraid that western governments may just used a false flag operation to provoke hostilities betwee India and China.

Hindu Muslim enmity (british time)
India Pakistan wars (division aftermath)
India China hostilities (theatre of US-China hostilities)

are all false flags operations by wastern scholars and politicians.

Many Indian security experts have written about the threat from China.

My previous response to this theory.

[RajeshA]

With respect to the Nepal front (if I may use that word) - as per Ravi Rikhye (of Orbat.com), IA has already earmarked troops for this sector. IA has traditionaly - even as far back as 1960 - made contigency provisions to prevent ingress of PLA from this end.

That is great.

Now all we have to do, is not to wait for the PLA on the India-Nepal border, but on the Nepal-Tibet border.

[RajeshA]

Published on Oct 19, 2010
Editorial By RK Kutty
Chinese ambition: Central Chronicle

There are reports that China is strategically placing its missiles on the long borders with India. Also, they are fine tuning their air defence to strike deeply inside the Indian Territory.

Certainly, China is too ambitious after dethroning Japan economically. Militarily too, China has the biggest Army in the world and its technological advancement is quite noteworthy. They have proved this during the last Beijing Olympics. China's forex reserves and its deposits in the US are posing a greater danger even to upset the dollar and the US' deteriorating employment avenues is hitting their economy badly. Obama, though tried his best to stop outsourcing- an election promise made during campaigning- is literally overpowered by the Republican supported IT lobby in which India too is included. So, in that way too, America cannot generate employment for its people. Layouts are quite rampant and increasing every year. When the mid-term poll comes in the coming November, what would be in store for the US President is quite unpredictable.

China is looking at these very shrewdly and they know how and when to strike. China's expansionist ambition is well known. It is China that has made a mess of Nepal. Even after ten attempts, the Maoist infected Nepal couldn't elect a Prime Minister. There is no government there as of today. Things are being remote- controlled, therefore, even the Monarchy too cannot return back that easily.

China knows well how to play its card. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar and other East Asian countries are their loyalists now. Of these, Pakistan is far closer, as they have now agreed with China to build up a bigger nuclear plant. All these are supportive factors that China may take some misadventure to settle the boundary dispute with India militarily. Should that be a reality, then undoubtedly, missiles will take over from the normal conventional warfare.

Therefore, India need to strategically place its missiles and fine tune its air defence mechanism, to take on such a possibility. We have a long border that stretches so far and wide and what role Pakistan will play, in case of a Chinese first step for military attack, would be decisive. If Pakistan too aids and abets the Chinese adventure, then India will have to battle on two fronts and for that it should, right earnest, alert its war veterans and ex-servicemen to be ready to take guard at strategic places when our forces would be engaged in fighting in the front lines. Indian defence planners and military strategists should work over-time to face any eventuality, as the war, if it breaks out, would lead to any possibility.

Some have started beating the war drums! Time to prepare!

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from Managing Pakistan's failure Thread

Destruction of pakistan will set the emerging Sino-Jehadi alliance permanently on the back foot. pakistan is the reason why Arab countries and China are able to maintain a hostile stance towards India without fear of consequence. With pakistan gone, they will either have to face India directly or make peace with us. Since, maintaining hostility against us will be out of the question over the medium and long terms, they will have to tone down their hostility.

Pakistan is the middle-man between the West and the Jihadis, between China and Islam. It is Pakistan that determines the mood of the Islamic World to the Chinese. It is Pakistan that prepares the wicket for China in the Islamic World. Why is Maldives suddenly so friendly with China? With Pakistan gone, the Chinese would lose a major buffer between themselves and Islam. Without Pakistan, China becomes a pork-eating Muslim-hating Kafir country occupying Muslim lands in East Turkestan.

In order to change the dynamic between Islam and China, Pakistani Army must fall.

[Lalmohan]

another fisheries protection drama appears to be underway in the senkaku islands right now, jsdf not confirming the presence of a chinese patrol vessel near the islands... which is code for something odd is going on (they have clarified that no chinese fishing vessels are around anyway)

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR Thread

Published on Oct 19, 2010
By Thomas E. Ricks
Interview
Monsoon: Robert Kaplan's new book:

Robert Kaplan: This blog has tended to concentrate, as it should, on the wars of the moment, in Iraq and Afghanistan, messy land wars where counterinsurgency is a doctrine that the U.S. military is pursuing. This book takes military issues beyond those of the day, and suggests a future where our challenges may be primarily maritime. China and its naval rise, and the possible threat it poses to the Indian Ocean and adjacent South China Sea, figure prominently in this book, while Iraq and Afghanistan figure barely at all. Central Asia figures, though, because it will one day be linked by roads and energy pipelines to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan figures heavily, but here, too, I concentrate on what the media has generally ignored: the restive provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh on the Indian Ocean. The surprise of this book is that future wars and conflicts may be vastly different than the ones of the moment. Instead of fighting neighborhood by neighborhood in Baghdad or Kandahar, we may in the future have to influence vast spaces on the map through naval maneuvers.

[Dhiman]

The global reserve currency (US dollar) is cheap, easily produced (printing press), and has no real value besides the value that comes out of human perception. Hence today, international currency is more of an instrumentation of gaining control through deception rather than as a means for easily transferring value from one entity to another (the role that currencies have fulfilled historically).

Dhiman ji,

That is an additional factor, why India should not be offering any majority shares in Indian companies.

Agreed sir, but I think it goes a bit beyond that.

India needs a certain amount of international currency for imports (oil, weapons, foreign exchange for tourists going out, etc) and there are various ways in which India earns this international currency (through remittances from Indians working abroad, foreign investors, exports, etc). However, given that international currency is a fiat currency (i.e has no intrinsic value like say a bag of wheat), it does not make sense for GoI to accumulate foreign reserves beyond say what is required to finance 1 or 2 years of imports.

So my hypothesis is that, if someone/anyone (including GoI) in India is accumulating foreign currency beyond what they can effectively use in near term, they are giving up control of some domestic item (whether it is company ownership, market share, etc) to foreign entities for free. Given the state of international financial markets this has major security implications well beyond just the majority ownership of domestic companies. I am not suggesting going back to the days of license raj, but their are some pretty serious security issues related to bulging foreign reserves either in government or private hands within the country.

[svinayak]

Published on Oct 19, 2010

Robert Kaplan: This blog has tended to concentrate, as it should, on the wars of the moment, in Iraq and Afghanistan, messy land wars where counterinsurgency is a doctrine that the U.S. military is pursuing. This book takes military issues beyond those of the day, and suggests a future where our challenges may be primarily maritime. China and its naval rise, and the possible threat it poses to the Indian Ocean and adjacent South China Sea, figure prominently in this book, while Iraq and Afghanistan figure barely at all. Central Asia figures, though, because it will one day be linked by roads and energy pipelines to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan figures heavily, but here, too, I concentrate on what the media has generally ignored: the restive provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh on the Indian Ocean. The surprise of this book is that future wars and conflicts may be vastly different than the ones of the moment. Instead of fighting neighborhood by neighborhood in Baghdad or Kandahar, we may in the future have to influence vast spaces on the map through naval maneuvers.

Check this scenario which is never discussed by Kaplan. IOR is not going to be the theatre of conflict but the land borders around the Himalayas will be the region of real conflict

India prospers and it soon finds itself surrounded by powerful enemies. As war erupts. India joins the Allies against the Hegemony.

WW3: The Third Human Civil War
India one of the major allied powers during the Third Human Civil War, fought alongside the United States, EU, Mexico, Korea, AU, Australia, Japan, Brazil and Israel against the Hegemony. India provided the bulk of the allied soldiers and opened up a second front which in time broke apart the Hegemony and led to its fall.

[Rajdeep]

^^Great video, highly unlikely.

In all these years of Indian independence, there is no single event that comes to my mind, where we have skillfully played a Geo political/militaristic game other than the split of east and west Pakistan. I wonder how will it ever manage the Chinese who grow skilled day by day. I have heard through some publications of India influencing and getting favorable governments in Africa but see none in its own backyard.

I wish there is a better way to project our next steps based on the foreign affairs situation right now. It just looks now as if we are just making a lot of noise about the Chinese issue, but not really doing anything about it. Its like a teacher's pet who looks for constant approval from USA.

I really hope that the Indian leadership is not as incompetent as we make them out to be. However looking at all the military and political blunders we seem to commit, I think we have been just lucky to enjoy economic growth and maybe its just not sustainable in the long run. Even when we have been been molested in the 26/11 attacks, India acts like a amputee who can only scream but cant do anything.

What will it take for India to act on anything? Discussing the Chinese threat as much as we may, doesn't count for anything if the govt shows indifference.

* Sorry if i am OT/pardon the newb

[abhischekcc]

Welcome to BR Rajdeep,

And you are not wrong in raising those doubts. India is being led by tired old men.

[KLNMurthy]

Welcome to BR Rajdeep,

And you are not wrong in raising those doubts. India is being led by tired old men.

tired old men don't live forever.

[RajeshA]

Welcome to BR Rajdeep,

And you are not wrong in raising those doubts. India is being led by tired old men.

tired old men don't live forever.

But Long enough to be succeeded by the next tired old generation.

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^

Lovely boss.

[Pratyush]

India,

By the virtue of its existence represents a threat to everyone of its neioughbours. Regardless of who it is led by. That being the case it will always face the probles that it is facing with the current bunch.

The only options available to it are either assimilate the near abroad into a greater India. Or make sure that the PRC is also hemed in by powers hostile to it.

If it tries to play nice guy with its current constitution, it will keep on threatning others.

The reasons are not that hard to find, multi relegious, multi lingual, multi cultural etc. Nearly every one of the natiosn in the near abroad is either created for one relegion or ethnicity.

Keeping in view the above, the nations in the Indian prephary will always fear assimilation by India. In their mind the assimilation of Sikkim is the test case of Indian expansionism. They will do every thing in their power to make sure the their indipendent existance is maintained by them. If that means bringing the US or the PRC into the equation they will.

The only way to prevent it for happening is

1) Disband the republic.

2) Assimilate the near abroad. Doing so will improve both the stratagic and tactical situation for the nation.

The current state of play cannot be allowed to continue.

JMT

[abhischekcc]

But Long enough to be succeeded by the next tired old generation.

How true!!!

[RajeshA]

Published on January 28, 2010
By Shen Dingli
Shen Dingli is professor and executive vice-dean of the Institute of International Affairs at Fudan University, Shanghai, and director of its Centre for American Studies.
Don't shun the idea of setting up overseas military bases: China.org.cn

Whether we should set up overseas military bases has been a hot topic ever since China joined the international anti-pirate co-operation last year. The issue sparks hot debates online. Some navy officers believe there is a need to set up some bases for military supply, while the government declares China is in no need to seek supplies from such kind of bases.

Chinese troops once garrisoned in other countries

Setting up overseas military bases is not an idea we have to shun; on the contrary, it is our right. Bases established by other countries appear to be used to protect their overseas rights and interests. As long as the bases are set up in line with international laws and regulations, they are legal ones. But if the bases are established to harm other countries, their existence becomes illegal and they are likely to be opposed by other countries.

China develops its military force with a theme of peace in mind. Therefore, we can either develop military forces domestically to maintain peace, or place the forces abroad as long as we take world peace as the ultimate goal. In the 1950s, the Korean War enflamed the border of China. China had no option but to call up volunteer soldiers to fight against the overseas intervention in its northern neighbor. Many of the volunteer soldiers remained in North Korea for years after the end of the Korean war to safeguard the peace of the two countries. Finally, the troops withdrew from the peninsular where the stability was regained.

After the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China dispatched troops abroad under the invitation of the foreign countries as long as their requests are in line with our security interests, good to resume regional stability and benefit for the world peace process. So it is baseless to say that we will not set up any military bases in future because we have never sent troops abroad.

We need to know the military bases are not set up in view of the previous practices but are established in accordance with China's interests as well as world peace. We can speak the point clearly even though to set up overseas military bases is not yet on agenda. It is wrong for us to believe we have no rights to set up the bases abroad.

The current four overseas interests for China:

With the continuous expansion of China's overseas business, the governments are more accountable for protecting the overseas interests. There are four responsibilities: the protection of the people and fortunes overseas; the guarantee of smooth trading; the prevention of the overseas intervention which harms the unity of the country and the defense against foreign invasion. The purpose of the tasks is to deter the threats posed on our legal interests.

To guarantee the abovementioned interests, we need to enhance the power in safeguarding our overseas interests. And the power should be comprehensive enough to demonstrate our political, economic and military forces. As for the military aspect, we should be able to conduct the retaliatory attack within the country or at the neighboring area of our potential enemies. We should also be able to put pressure on the potential enemies' overseas interests. With further development, China will be in great demand of the military protection.

Obviously, navy is crucial in safeguarding the security of the country. When our country's core interests are harmed, the navy is responsible to conduct retaliatory attack including blocking the enemy's sea traffic.

When the public discusses overseas military bases, they refer to the supply base for the navy escorting the ships cruising in the Gulf of Aden and Somali. The discussion shows people's enthusiasm in defending the interests of the country. Yet their worries are not the most important reasons for the setup of an overseas military base.

It is true that we are facing the threat posed by terrorism, but different from America, it is not a critical issue. The real threat to us is not posed by the pirates but by the countries which block our trade route.

The threats also include secessionism outside the Chinese mainland. The situation requires us be able to hit the vulnerable points of our potential opponents by restricting their international waterway. So we need to set up our own blue-water navy and to rely on the overseas military bases to cut the supply costs.

Diplomatic ways urged for setting up an overseas military base

Whether the overseas military base has a proper name is not important. What is important is to contact the host countries which would allow our ships to harbor and provide the facilities for our navy soldiers to take a rest. As long as we aim to maintain the world peace, international society won't misunderstand our move in building overseas military bases.

There are three international relations we need to tackle with when building overseas military bases. Firstly, the relations between base troops and the host countries. It is possible to set up military bases as long as the establishment is in line with the host countries' interests. Secondly, the relationship between the base troops and the countries neighboring to the host country. If the base troops can maintain the regional stability, it will be probably welcomed by all the countries in the region. Thirdly, the relationship between the big countries in the world. The establishment of the troop bases is sensitive to those big countries which have already set up the bases abroad.

It is inevitable for some countries to suspect our good intention in maintaining the world peace, but their suspicion shall not become an obstacle to our military base strategies. Currently, America, France and Britain own a majority of troop bases in the world. Yet China seldom felt being threatened by the military bases set up by Britain and France. Therefore, we have no reasons to feel that the military bases we set up will agitate other countries.

China is in need of a strong power to maintain the world peace. So it is necessary for us to build troop bases to face the challenge from other countries. We build the bases not to offend other countries but to cooperate with the rest of the world for the sustainable security and peace in the world.

The gentleman is coming to the 50th Anniversary of NDC.

Published on Oct 20, 2010
By Sujan Datta
China strategist bar lifts - Maverick academic invited to Delhi defence event: Calcutta Telegraph

[RajeshA]

Published on Oct 20, 2010
By Raghav Bahl
The Chinese Threat To India: Forbes

Is there an "India card" that America can play against China? Is there an "America card" that India can play against China? And is China getting increasingly wary about these chimerical cards that India and America can play around with? After all, an opinion scan of over eighty American and Indian military officials in Jane's Foreign Report suggested that "China represents the most significant threat to both countries' security in the future as an economic and military competitor." A US officer went to the extent of saying that "we want a friend in 2020 that will be capable of assisting the US militarily to deal with a Chinese threat."

[Prem]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/ ... 8099.shtml
China Lashes Out At Japan Over Reported Insult
China Lashes Out At Japan Over Reported Insult, Says Meeting Between Top Leaders Uncertain


But Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Hu Zhengyue called that meeting into question Thursday, saying any talks would require "appropriate conditions and atmosphere" and that Tokyo didn't seem ready.

Japanese media have quoted Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara as saying that Beijing's reaction to the territorial dispute was "hysterical." Hu characterized the comments as "provocative" and an attack on China.
Relations between the two nations have been strained since the collision near the islands in the East China Sea called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.
Tensions subsided after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan held an impromptu meeting during an Asia-Europe summit. But in recent days, sometimes violent rallies in several Chinese cities protesting Tokyo's claim to the islands have threatened to reopen hostilities.
"We hope the Japanese side will meet the Chinese side halfway and use concrete actions to demonstrate its sincerity to improve bilateral relations instead of saying or doing something that's contrary to this goal," Hu said.The Oct. 28-30 Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit will bring together the group's 10 member nations as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

[RajeshA]

The Chinese are pushing the Japanese very hard - even dictating what the Japanese can say and what not.

This is all good. The more the Japanese get kicked in their butt by China, the sooner they will stand up!