Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby neeraj » 01 Jun 2011 03:54

GDP growth target at 4.2 percent - Pingrezi at its best - attached graph is for 2000-2001

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has planned to set real GDP growth target at 4.2 percent, which seems a great challence in the backdrop of the prevalent situation.

Economic experts single out war on terror, which is being fought for the entire world, :rotfl: a great hindrance in the economic development, but Pakistan alone is paying its heavy price.

The government had set 4.2 percent growth rate for the current fiscal year, but the target could not be achieved due to the poor security situation, last year’s flood, energy crisis and lack of foreign investment.

The government under these circumstances has set the economic growth rate at 4.2 percent for upcoming fiscal year, which would be a challenge for the government.

The government has envisaged contribution of agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors at 3.8 percent, 3.1 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while the increase in investment at 13.5 percent in 2011-12.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Airavat » 01 Jun 2011 06:49

lethal combination of low growth and high inflation:
The average growth rate has declined from six per cent in 1985-95 to 4.4 per cent in the 15-year period from 1996–2001 (madrassa math?) and only 2.9 per cent in 2007-2011. The factors that have contributed to this slowdown are varied and complex, but the forthcoming budget must prioritise revival of growth in the following sub-sectors.

One, accelerated growth in small-scale industrial and commercial sectors.

Two, a bold programme of incentives and policies for an export-led growth strategy.

Three, attracting foreign investment from the Middle East in agriculture and livestock sectors.

the decline in the investment-to-GDP ratio is due to the deteriorating security situation but also due to the shortage and high cost of energy, growing incidence of corruption and the rising cost of doing business in Pakistan. These negative factors must be addressed on a war footing to improve investment climate in the country.

Sartaj Aziz is a former finance minister. He expects the government to do all this, forgetting the main ingredient of a growing economy: a youthful and talented population. The Pakistani populace is more interested in Islamism and terrorism.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Theo_Fidel » 01 Jun 2011 07:44

its September payment was made almost three months late and only after Pakistan received the first tranche of its IMF Standby Agreement payment.


How did we miss this one. I'm sure the IMF program explicitly prohibits diversion of money to arms. Its like spending your begging money on bullets while your family starves.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 01 Jun 2011 08:07

There was no diversion of funds as such. You see Pakis some money in their left pocket and when the IMF funds came into their right pocket they were able use the funds from their left pocket which were earmarked for something else.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby gakakkad » 01 Jun 2011 18:15

ramana wrote:SSridhar and others.
What about a two month all India boycott of Multinational company goods that do business in TSP? Can we organize a facebook/twitter campaign if it can cause some serious hurt?

We need to identify a list of products in TSP made by MNC that have businesses in India. And then organize a campaign to boycott the purchase of goods made by those MNCs in India over a specific period to give them a kick in the fundamentals. For sake of market dynamics we also need to id alternate products for the Indian consumer.



A brilliant Idea . lets GO AHEAD WITH IT. if not a boycott than atleast big facebook campaign. It will be simply great. India is far too great a market for them to compromise against. It will be a great diplomatic success. Even amrikan joes can join. When I am in US i ensure that I dont buy any TSP products. We shop for clothes when we come to INDIA just to be on the safe side :) . When i go back to unkil land next month I ll begin anti TSP Campaign.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby gakakkad » 01 Jun 2011 18:32

Could anyone get the list of 750 odd foreign companies that do business with PAAKILAND ? the data would help formulate a strategy of how to we go about the business. If we can muster enough support on facebook / twitter we can arm twist them into slowly stopping tsp operations.
Last edited by gakakkad on 01 Jun 2011 18:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby gakakkad » 01 Jun 2011 18:40

to pakilurkers
yes we INDIANS ARE GOING TO BASH U LEFT RIGHT AND CENTRE. if u thing u can retaliate I D see u try.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Singha » 01 Jun 2011 18:45

the french would ofcourse know that Pak was having trouble making payments for big ticket weapons.

choosing to make a virtue out of necessity they now inform india that they are doing us a favour by discouraging pak from asking for big french weapons.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Airavat » 23 Jun 2011 11:17

lack of investor interest in the Pakistani stock market
MSCI, a leading provider of investment decision tools worldwide, is widely used by top global fund managers to track a stock exchange’s position and make fund allocations accordingly. In the annual market review 2011, MSCI did not see any development in the Pakistani equity market and termed it ‘similar to the situation last year’. One of the key reasons for not considering Pakistan for an upgrade is the lack of investor interest in the market, said KASB Securities analyst Imtiaz Gadar. “The market continued to be characterised by a very limited number of sizable securities,” said the MSCI statement.

Only three companies in the local market meet the MSCI Emerging Markets minimum size requirements, adds the statement. Oil and Gas Development Company, MCB Bank and Fauji Fertiliser Company are the only companies that meet the size criteria, according to KASB Securities. Pakistan, after remaining part of the MSCI Emerging Market Index for 14 years from 1994 till 2008, was classified down a level to the Frontier Market Index.

Pakistan was an "emerging market" till 2008! Emerging in which sectors?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby rajanb » 23 Jun 2011 11:24

Pakistan was an "emerging market" till 2008! Emerging in which sectors?


That is an easy question. In the terrorism and hawala sectors.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 25 Jun 2011 15:01

PIAF urges harmony to save economy

link

By Shabbir Sarwar

LAHORE: Pakistan Industrial and Traders Association Front (PIAF) has urged all the political parties to show harmony on the national issues like deteriorating law and order situation and energy crisis as blame-game is pushing the country’s economy toward disaster.

This was the crux of speeches at PIAF committee’s meeting held on Thursday. PIAF Chairman Sohail Lashari presided over the meeting while PIAF Senior Vice-Chairman Nadar Kamal Osman, Vice-Chairman Junaid Iqbal Sheikh, Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry former presidents Mian Anjum Nisar and Mian Shafqat Ali were also present on the occasion.

PIAF chairman speaking on the occasion said that Pakistan is far behind from even the many countries of the region like Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. He said that a bigger difference between Pakistan and other countries was that they are facing economic difficulties due to lack of resources or geographical location while Pakistan was in deep trouble because of the unrealistic policies of the present regime.

He said that energy crisis has ruined the economic activities in the country but government has not taken a single step to enhance the cheap power generation and is busy in making repeated increase in electricity tariff. He said that electricity rate for India is 9 cents per unit, in Bangladesh 9.5 cents per unit while in Pakistan 13 cents per unit for the industry. Likewise mark-up rate in India is 11.5 percent, Bangladesh 12.5 percent, Sri Lanka 9.75 percent while in Pakistan it’s almost 17 percent. He said that tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in Pakistan is far less than in other countries. Tax-to-GDP ratio in Pakistan is 8.8 percent, India 15 percent, Bangladesh 14.5 percent and Sri Lanka 16 percent.

He said agriculture is the largest sector of Pakistan as 43 percent labour is dependent upon agriculture. He said that this largest sector needs revolutionary reforms on war footing but is being rudely ignored by the government. He said that country’s population is growing by the rate of 2.05 every year and if this growth continues for next two decades, population would cross the mark of 24 million. He said that Pakistan needs to increase the yield per acre on steady pace but instead of taking measures to provide some relief to the agriculture sector, the government is trying to add to the woes of the people attached with the agriculture sector. He mentioned that about nine million hectares fertile land is uncultivated due to shortage of water. He said that Pakistan was enriched with mineral resources worth trillions of dollars that could, not only easily get rid of all economic issues, but could also make the dream of prosperity come true. He said that all mineral resources were the property of the Pakistani nation, but the government had allowed foreign companies to loot this treasure.


When will these abduls stop comparing with India?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby suryag » 25 Jun 2011 18:01

hit them where it hurts, flood the world commodity market with cheap cotton, sugar and basmati rice. Alternatively, send some of our dalal street aces to play around in london commodity exchanges and ruin the prices the pakis get

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Agnimitra » 25 Jun 2011 23:30

rajanb wrote:That is an easy question. In the terrorism and hawala sectors.

Not to mention drug trafficking...

Prisonplanet
November 29, 1999: UN Says ISI Makes Billions from Drugs The United Nations Drug Control Program determines that the ISI makes around $2.5 billion annually from the sale of illegal drugs. [Times of India, 11/29/1999]


March 1, 2002: ISI Maintains Huge Drug Economy Vanity Fair suggests the ISI is still deeply involved in the drug trade in Central Asia. It estimates that Pakistan has a parallel drug economy worth $15 billion a year. Pakistan’s official economy is worth about $60 billion. The article notes that the US has not tied its billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan to assurances that Pakistan will stop its involvement in drugs. [Vanity Fair, 3/1/2002]


Earlier they were allowed to get away with it:
Jamestown Foundation Narco-Terrorism report - year 2004
Thus, the involvement particularly of the ISI in the drug trade further complicates the adequacy of a category such as “narco-terrorism” and would require comparing how different actors like resistance guerrillas, intelligence agencies, and terrorist organizations use the drug economy. :roll:

Now that has to be squeezed shut.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 29 Jun 2011 22:54

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... _heartland
Faisalabad, the industrial hub of Punjab, is ailing -- badly. And militant groups are reaping the benefits.

The
official statistics tell a grim story. According to the Faisalabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FCCI), the city's industrial sector has seen a 50 percent reduction in its production capacity. The district office of the Enterprise and Investment Department estimates that the energy crisis has forced more than 300 textile factories to shut down. Industrialists and labor leaders, however, believe the department is underreporting the number of closed-down factories. Sheikh Abdul Qayyum, a former FCCI president, said that at least 600 textile factories in the city shut down for at least three days every week due to the disruption in the natural gas supply. ndustrialists, however, are loath to go on the record to discuss how Faisalabad's deteriorating economic conditions are helping extremist and sectarian groups. "I will only speak about street crimes and the negative impact they are having on the business environment," said Ahmed. The city's businessmen enjoy seeing their names placed next to those of religious and sect leaders on the banners that adorn the city's main markets. Any kind of relationship with sect leaders, who sometimes appear more powerful than the state itself, is seen as a source of security in Faisalabad's unstable social environment.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Arjun » 30 Jun 2011 11:04

X-posted from TSP thread....

Arjun wrote:Someone, either Somnath or Cosmo, had made a reference sometime back on these pages to South Korea having regarded Pakistan as an economic model in the sixties.

Here's a detailed article that demolishes this popular Pakistani urban myth. Apologies if this has already been posted earlier.

Learning from Korea

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby RajeshA » 03 Jul 2011 14:51

Published on Jun 28, 2011
By Umer Farooq
Trouble in Pakistan's Heartland: Foreign Policy
Faisalabad, the backbone of Pakistan's textile industry, is home to hundreds of large-scale and medium-sized businesses, as well as a cottage industry of 60,000 power looms. Conservative estimates from labor organizations and industrialists suggest that the industry provides jobs to more than 2 million skilled and unskilled people. But over the past three years, the city's businesses have suffered at least a 20 to 25 percent increase in the cost of production.

"I don't think I will be able to sustain the production process at the present cost until coming December," said Sheikh Saeed, a leading producer of cotton cloth. He says his factory is on the brink of closure while at least five other factories located next to his have already closed down. "We are thinking of shifting to trading."

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Samudragupta » 04 Jul 2011 08:14

Cross Posting from the strat thread.......

Pakistan: a future in questionIn Pakistan, socio-political difficulties and the military campaign, with US support, against the Taliban have dominated the life of the country since 2007 and there is no prospect of improvement in the short to medium term. The sharp decline in economic growth since 2008 and the disastrous flooding in August 2010 represent additional sources of concern. Growth fell to 2% in the 2008-2009 financial year before rallying to 4.1% in 2009-2010, compared to an average of nearly 7% in the five previous years under the presidency of General Musharraf. The political context has worsened since the run-up to the presidential elections in 2007. General Musharraf could easily have renewed his mandate but for the return from exile of two political rivals, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. The election battle took place against a background of renewed religious militancy and an Sharif Bhutto Sharif Musharraf Zardari upsurge in terrorist attacks, one of which, according to the official version of events, took the life of Benazir Bhutto. In the end it was Ms Bhutto’s husband, who replaced her as a candidate, who won the presidency. However, lacking charisma and under the shadow of past allegations of corruption, he heads an executive that is severely weakened. The army looks like the only solution in the event of a serious Taliban threat to the nuclear arsenal. Without a strong central government, the economy lacks direction and has not recovered from the commodity price shock and the financial crisis which did considerable damage to the balance of trade and government budgets. At the end of 2008, the IMF provided $11.3bn in emergency support to help stave off a default on the country’s debt. However the first steps towards an adjustment in imbalances and the slight improvement in growth in 2009-2010 have been undermined by the worst flooding of the Indus River in living memory. Growth is unlikely to be more than 2% in 2010-2011 due to the scale of the recession in the
November 2010. Inflation, which has remained high due to the monetary financing of the budget deficit and the increase in commodity prices, is likely to rise further due to food shortages. Pakistan thus seems to be lastingly weakened by the economic difficulties of three years of a major crisis with a dysfunctional government and spreading Jihadism. The consequences of the flooding on the country’s population is likely to lead to social upheaval in rural Pakistan. The country will, however, benefit from increased international aid, particularly as, despite a number of disagreements, it remains the USA’s leading
ally in Afghanistan. The World Bank has recently approved a project to expand the port of Karachi, and China is also building port and energy facilities.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 04 Jul 2011 13:54

‘Only strong Pakistan can resist foreign meddling’

EFFORTS should be made to make Pakistan financially stable as it will help curtail unnecessary foreign interventions in its affairs due to less dependence on foreign loans and aid.

Economist Dr Niaz Ahmed Khan during his address at Fikri Nishist at TECH Club on the topic of “How to save Pakistan within 30 days? here on Sunday” made a comprehensive presentation with the help of 69 slides. Engineers, doctors, professors and scientists of the City participated in the moot. It was presided over by Prof Dr Khawaja Amjad Saeed, Principal Hailey College of Commerce.

Dr Niaz said incentive based, interest free bonds system could bring Pakistan out of financial crisis within 30 days. Pakistan can become wealthiest country of the world in a month,” he claimed. Terrorism and suicides will end by implementing this bond system. As many as five million people can get employment under bond system with no expense to the government, he said adding this would also result in elimination of all taxes and duties. He added that bond system could introduce interest free banking. Eventually, this will end capitalism.

He said in this Pakistan could introduce bonds amounting to Rs 100,000 with 100 per cent profit. This system is in line with the principles of Quran and Sunnah :P , he said adding telecommunication companies have already adopted this system and are offering 100 per cent profit on the purchase of a Rs 100 scratch cards with Rs 100 extra minutes.

On the occasion, Khawaja Amjad Saeed said that actually there was a deficit of Rs 750 billion in Pakistan’s budget, one trillion is spend on payment of foreign debts besides 21 per cent expense on defence. Therefore, he said, no amount is available to the Annual Development Programme (ADP). Change from the grassroots level is required in Pakistan, he added. According to the resources available in Pakistan, it is one of the top countries of the world. :roll: :roll: Our leadership is not focused, he said.

Earlier Zubair Sheikh, President TECH Club in his welcome note said that TECH Club Fikri Nishists were creating awareness among people on various national issues. Unfortunately, the corrupt political leaders were able to get support of foreign powers and they should be removed to bring prosperity to the country, he added. Founder of Jaago Tehrik Qayyum Nizami, Engineers Abdul Majeed Khan and Mahmudur Rahman Chughtai also participated in this session.


link

I wonder if this guy had some desi daaru before coming for his fairytale presentation.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 05 Jul 2011 07:14

The Energy crisis in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan bites:

Load-shedding protests: 3 killed, 28 injured in Mianwali

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 05 Jul 2011 16:55

Energy crisis leaves Pakistan textiles in tatters

But the prospect of respite is so remote the Water and Power Development Authority acknowledged last week that power cuts would continue for at least another seven years.


Dunno how they arrived at 7 years?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 05 Jul 2011 17:06

Cement sector faces losses, consumption down by 8.24%

KARACHI: Fiscal year 2010-11 proved to be a nightmare for cement sector as 80 percent of its manufacturers suffered huge losses on back of stagnant local consumption.



APCMA said continuous losses were unbearable and might jeopardise servicing of Rs 132 billion in loans industry owes to banks.

Cement industry has been incurring massive losses due to high cost of production, declining exports, slack local demand and government provided no support.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Lalmohan » 05 Jul 2011 20:08

Gaurav_S wrote:Energy crisis leaves Pakistan textiles in tatters

But the prospect of respite is so remote the Water and Power Development Authority acknowledged last week that power cuts would continue for at least another seven years.


Dunno how they arrived at 7 years?


until new chini new clear kraftwerks are online

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby tejas » 05 Jul 2011 23:55

Nothing cheers me up when I'm down like a visit to this thread. Can an economics guru explain the difference between "profit" and interest? :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Chinmayanand » 06 Jul 2011 00:39

tejas wrote:Nothing cheers me up when I'm down like a visit to this thread. Can an economics guru explain the difference between "profit" and interest? :rotfl:


Qafirs charge "interest" while believers take "profit" . :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby shravan » 09 Jul 2011 08:27

Govt borrowed $12b in three years
ISLAMABAD - The government has set a new record by obtaining $12 billion in foreign loans in the last three years and the country’s overall foreign debt has swelled to over $52 billion, the NA Standing Committee on Economic Affairs was told on Friday.

The meeting, which was held under the chairmanship of Malik Azmat Khan, was informed by Economic Affairs Secretary Wajid Rana that foreign debt had swelled from $40 billion in 2008 to $52 billion in 2011.

The massive increase in foreign loans also included the $7 billion received through the International Monetary Fund standby arrangement facility. Asked about the size of foreign loans since 1947, he said it was around $74 billion. Rana said other than the foreign debt, the government had liabilities of over Rs 6 trillion in domestic debt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 10 Jul 2011 14:12

Consumers’ sufferings to mount

Sources said that exchange of harsh words between Petroleum Ministry and All Pakistan CNG Association (APCNGA) erupted after the talks ended in stalemate as the ministry officials refused to honour the commitment made with the CNG association on 4th July by Petroleum Minister Dr Asim Hussain. They said persisting deadlock would ultimately add to the woes and worries of the consumers of CNG in the country, who are already in deep trouble due to energy crisis and inflation

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 10 Jul 2011 17:57

Chinmayanand wrote:
tejas wrote:Nothing cheers me up when I'm down like a visit to this thread. Can an economics guru explain the difference between "profit" and interest? :rotfl:


Qafirs charge "interest" while believers take "profit" . :rotfl:


Welcome to the world of sharia lending. Two sides of the same coin.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 10 Jul 2011 18:02

Arjun wrote:Here's a detailed article that demolishes this popular Pakistani urban myth. Apologies if this has already been posted earlier. Learning from Korea


Please don't take this folklore way from the pakis. They have so little to cling on to nowdays. Secondly, don't even bring up their national airline's past glory days and burst that bubble. Drives the average paki into raptures just thinking how great their nation was (is).

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby RajeshA » 10 Jul 2011 23:21

anupmisra wrote:
Arjun wrote:Here's a detailed article that demolishes this popular Pakistani urban myth. Apologies if this has already been posted earlier. Learning from Korea


Please don't take this folklore way from the pakis. They have so little to cling on to nowdays. Secondly, don't even bring up their national airline's past glory days and burst that bubble. Drives the average paki into raptures just thinking how great their nation was (is).

Ayaz Amir often used to talk about the great and punctual transport system in Pakistan!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby RamaT » 10 Jul 2011 23:22

The snakes true colors finally being seen? It'll be interesting to see the consequences(unintended and not) of this and whether this is a one time shot across the bow or a change in strategy.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/07/10/pakistan.us/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

The United States is holding back $800 million in aid to Pakistan, President Barack Obama's chief of staff said Sunday.


While Pakistan has "been an important ally in the fight on terrorism," Daley said, "now they've taken some steps that have given us reason to pause on some of the aid which we're giving to the military, and we're trying to work through that."


The rift seemed to deepen last week when the top U.S. military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm.Mike Mullen, said he believes the Pakistani government "sanctioned" the killing of a prominent Islamabad reporter, Syed Saleem Shahzad, who was murdered in May.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Jul 2011 23:02

X-post from TSP thread:

1.

abhishek_sharma wrote:Pakistan's demographic dilemma


Perhaps someone can explain how urbanization is taking place without industrialization. Without an income how do you eat and where do you live in a city?

Pakistan is experiencing rapid urbanization; while a third of the country's people have long been rurally based, at least 50 percent of the population is expected to live in cities by the 2020s....

...Additionally, if Pakistanis are to be gainfully employed, the economy must be large enough to absorb them, no simple feat in a labor economy that at present creates only a million new jobs a year...



2.

Code: Select all

Pakistan
Population (thousands)
All Variants
1950-2100

Year   Medium      High          Low           Constant fertility
1950     37,542     37,542     37,542     37,542
1955     41,109     41 109     41 109     41 109
1960     45,920     45 920     45 920     45 920
1965     51,993     51 993     51 993     51 993
1970     59,383     59 383     59 383     59 383
1975     68,483     68 483     68 483     68 483
1980     80,493     80 493     80 493     80 493
1985     95,470     95 470     95 470     95 470
1990    111 845    111 845    111 845    111 845
1995    127 347    127 347    127 347    127 347
2000    144 522    144 522    144 522    144 522
2005    158 645    158 645    158 645    158 645
2010    173 593    173 593    173 593    173 593
2015    189 648    191 378    187 919    192 422
2020    205 364    210 189    200 540    213 758
2025    220 609    229 589    211 629    237 213
2030    234 432    247 779    221 103    261 599
2035    246 789    264 967    228 766    287 169
2040    257 778    281 781    234 396    314 904
2045    267 240    298 374    237 695    345 569
2050    274 875    314 272    238 538    379 242
2055    280 486    328 856    237 045    415 670
2060    283 959    341 769    233 311    454 747
2065    285 455    353 298    227 493    496 968
2070    285 191    363 895    219 755    543 245
2075    283 420    373 869    210 376    594 497
2080    280 415    383 325    199 757    651 358
2085    276 466    392 285    188 372    714 296
2090    271 822    400 837    176 629    783 759
2095    266 703    409 175    164 873    860 368
2100    261 271    417 464    153 363    944 843

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp

3.
IMO, if the urbanization figures for Pakistan are correct, then it is only apparently in dire financial straits, the underlying economy must be healthy.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/09/urbaniza ... st-in.html

4.
Hmm, urbanization without economic growth is possible - African nations are the main examples, we are told. Is Pakistan a mini-Africa, economically speaking?
http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2412.html
To find out why African countries'experience with urbanization and sustained growth appeared to differ from that of other countries, the authors investigated the determinants of urbanization across countries over 40 years. Rather than studying individuals'decisions to migrate, they relied on macroeconomic data and cross-country comparisons. A central hypothesis of their study: that individuals move (with varying degrees of ease) in response to economic incentives and opportunities. If location incentives are distorted, so is growth.

The authors find that urbanization levels are closely correlated with levels of income. But urbanization continues even during periods of negative growth, carried by its own momentum, largely a function of the level of urbanization. From that viewpoint, Africa's urbanization without growth is not a puzzle.

Factors other than income that help predict differences in levels of urbanization across countries include: a) income structure; b) education; c) rural-urban wage differentials; d) ethnic tensions; and e) civil disturbances. In addition, the relationship between economic incentives and urbanization is weaker in countries with fewer civil or political liberties.

Factors other than initial urbanization level that help explain the speed of urbanization include: 1) The sector from which income growth is derived; 2) ethnic tensions; 3) civil disturbances and democracy (these two slow the pace of urbanization if all else is constant); 4) rural-urban wage differentials, whether they represent an urban bias or simply lower productivity in agriculture relative to other sectors.

The weak relationship that this study shows between urbanization and traditionally accepted migration factors suggests that in Africa economists are overlooking part of the urbanization story. The fact that the informal sector appears to provide a significant source of income for urban migrants, coupled with the overlap between rural and urban activities, may shed light on the nature of urbanization in Africa.


5.
IMO, without census, every statistic in Pakistan is based on sample surveys. Correctly weighting the samples to get a provincial or national average is tough, if you didn't have a census in the first place.

The sample design methodology is here:
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/fbs/content/methodology-4
Each city/town has been divided into enumeration blocks consisting of 200-250 households identifiable through sketch map. Each enumeration block has been classified into three categories of income groups i.e. low, middle and high, keeping in view the living standard of the majority of the people. List of villages published by Population Census Organization obtained as a consequence of Population Census 1998 has been taken as rural frame.


A. Urban Domain: Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Multan, Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Peshawar and Quetta, have been considered as large sized cities. Each of these cities constitutes a separate stratum and has further been sub-stratified according to low, middle and high-income groups. After excluding population of large sized cities, the remaining urban population in each defunct Division in all the provinces has been grouped together to form a stratum.
B. Rural Domain: Each district in Punjab, Sindh and NWFP provinces has been grouped together to constitute a stratum. Whereas defunct administrative Division has been treated as stratum in Balochistan province.
Sample Size and Its Allocation: Keeping in view the objectives of the National/Provincial Level survey the sample size has been fixed at approximately 17600 households comprising 1252 sample villages/ enumeration blocks, which is expected to produce reliable results at provincial level. For the District level survey the sample is fixed at approximately 79600 households comprising 5563 sample villages / enumeration blocks, which is expected to produce reliable results at district level.


The above mentioned 5563 sample villages/enumeration blocks are 2333 Urban and 3230 Rural, as per the table given there.

There definitely appears to be an urban bias in the samples and further if the samples are not weighted correctly, then the district/provincial/national averages will be wrong.

I suppose if the urban sample is overweighted, the Pakistani stats **may**
1. overstate urbanization
2. underestimate fertility and pop. growth rate (assuming urban fertility is less)
3. underestimate rural population, total population
4. overestimate standard of living (if urban standard of living is higher than rural)

PS: what we should try to get and what might be reliable are rural averages and urban averages, separately.

6.
Pakistan's own stats
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/fbs/population_publications
do not support the story of urbanization.

Code: Select all

Millions
Year      Urban   Rural        Urban/Rural
2001     47.73    85.91       0.556
2003     49.64    89.33       0.556
2006     51.87    95.22       0.545
2007     52.80    97.05       0.544

shiv
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby shiv » 13 Jul 2011 06:37

cross post
A_Gupta wrote:IMO, if the urbanization figures for Pakistan are correct, then it is only apparently in dire financial straits, the underlying economy must be healthy.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/09/urbaniza ... st-in.html


Not clear how they arrive at such stats in countries where there is no census. Musharraf figures here.

I think that Pakistan's "underlying economy" was not unhealthy to start with. The only question is how much a population can increase without expanding the economy. Agricultural economies support only so many - and beyond that things need to move into exports of minerals, services, manufactured goods etc. That pdf you linked earlier about Pakistan's poverty and "opportunity" had a lot of typical Packee assertions that mixed an overestimated "bright side" with the bad news.

A rural to urban movement is called "urbanization" - not to be confused with building New Yorks or Shanghais. Dharavi is as urban as Napean sea road. The rural to urban movement seems to be based on complex decisions of cost versus benefit made by individuals

A rural increase in population leads to seasonal poverty as the there are more heads to feed. Cities offer more employment opportunities and there is an initial migration to cities by "pioneers". These pioneers offers "services" in the city - like domestic servants, sweepers, construction workers, waiters, washers of cars etc - and make life more luxurious for wealthy city dwellers at low prices. The "success" of the migrants in cities attracts even more rural to urban migration. That keeps salaries down and labor available in plenty but the migrants do not have homes or access to sanitation, clean water supply and healthcare. Their access to alcohol and drugs is higher.

China controlled the massive urge to migrate by using a permit system that does not allow free movement. Basically that splits families, but it reduces pressure on urban areas. It is a freedom of choice versus economy trade off. India and China have different views on this. Pakistan neither India nor China. Pakistan appears to have rural poverty and servitude in feudal set ups. But it does not have China like controls. Rural to urban migration in Pakistan could possibly be more attractive than in India because of sheer lack of rural development efforts in Pakistan. But that would typically need investment in city infrastructure to support migrants. In the absence of a suitable economy you end up with urban poor.

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/dpu-projects/21st_ ... /Myth7.pdf
Urban dwellers living within 50 metres of a
hospital or 100 metres of a water pipe often have as little chance of using these as
rural dwellers who are 20 kilometres from hospitals or water mains; proximity does not
mean access.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby SBajwa » 13 Jul 2011 07:09

What is urbanization? I visited Gujranwala, Lahore and Sheikhupura in 2005. I noticed

1. Open stenching sewers in all of these cities with standing greenish water all along the G.T road (as well as small roads).
2. Sheikhupura did not looked like any city at all., it had a "Kacha" dirt main road., 75% of the roads in Gujranwala were dirt roads., Lahore has about 20-30% dirt roads.
3. Sheikhupura is 35 kms from Lahore but it took us 3 hours to get there.
4. Though all people wore clothes but they were Brown or white for men with black for women. No color at all.
5. I asked villagers close to Sheikhupura about how many tractors they had in their village they replied "only chaudhries" i.e. "landlord of the village". most of the villagers still use bullock to get the wheat out of the husk.
6. I didnot see a single combine in the wheat harvest season in Pakistan while on this side of the border each village practically has 50 tractors and 1-2 combines. Wheat gets harvested in flat 15 days in Indian punjab/Haryana while it takes over 2 months in Pakistan. Depending upon farmers sowing habbits usually wheat in east UP gets harvested first then in Haryana and then in Punajab but all in less than a month.
7. All signs in Lahore were in "URDU" which is not very good for a economic/business conducive environment.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Airavat » 15 Jul 2011 06:29

Pakistan's central bank governor resigns

The resignation of Mr. Kardar, who was respected by Pakistan's foreign donors, further complicates the economic picture for a country highly dependent on International Monetary Fund and World Bank loans.

Pakistan's elite pay some of the lowest taxes in the world, but the state pays out huge subsidies on the consumption of oil and other commodities. To fund the mounting deficit, the government has been borrowing from the central bank, essentially printing money and stoking annual inflation to about 13%. Last year, Shaukat Tareen, the former finance minister, also resigned, citing widespread government corruption.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 15 Jul 2011 16:19

Foreign investment falls 8.1pc

Pakistan's unstable security, a Taliban insurgency in the country's northwest and chronic power shortages have put off long-term investors, analysts say.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 15 Jul 2011 19:26

gakakkad wrote:to pakilurkers
yes we INDIANS ARE GOING TO BASH U LEFT RIGHT AND CENTRE. if u thing u can retaliate I D see u try.


For a moment, based on the thoughtful language used above, I thought this was PDF.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 15 Jul 2011 19:31

SBajwa wrote:What is urbanization? I visited Gujranwala, Lahore and Sheikhupura in 2005.


Bajwaji, it would be helpful for people like me if you can put your travel experiences in a story-like format with photos (I hope you took pictures) for us to see on this forum. For too long the myth about the Pukejabiland has been that it is more developed, its cities are more enlightened and its people are better fed. I hope the mods are ok if Bajwaji starts a new thread on this topic. Perhaps others, who have been to pakiland, can contribute as well.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Guddu » 16 Jul 2011 19:05

$hittistan is doing quite well in gold reserves, 41st in the world at 64 tonnes.
http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2011 ... 5B1%5D.pdf

Assuming 1 tonne=48 million $, which means they have about 48 x 64=3072 million $, or 3 Billion $ of real money. This is assuming the 64 tonne figure is reliable. I guess they can afford a few F-16's with that wealth.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 16 Jul 2011 20:10

Karachi violence brings business wheel to halt

“If the situation persists, the economy will suffer even more,” said Saeed Shafiq, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry (KCCI). “We are forced to keep our shops and businesses shut every second or third day.”

Senator Haji Ghulam Ali, President Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), said that the worsening security scenario proves a second major blow to the economy following the prevailing energy crisis.

“Around Rs10 billion have been lost since the start of July only because of the violence in Karachi,” he said.

Traders and industrialists say that a business closure for a day in Karachi wipes out an estimated Rs4 billion.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gaurav_S » 16 Jul 2011 20:15

Businessmen concerned over decline in FDI

La-Whore—The former Chairman of Pakistan Poultry Association (PPA) and former LCCI Senior Vice President Abdul Basit Friday expressed grave concern over eight percent decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Portfolio Investment during the financial year 2011. Abdul Basit said that according to the State Bank of Pakistan, out of total investment, FDI stood at $1.573 billion at the end of FY11 as compared to $2.15 billion in FY10, depicting a decrease of $577 million.

He said that it was eye opener that even those countries are reluctant to invest in Pakistan who pushed Pakistan in to the fire of “War against terrorism”. :roll: :(( He said that in the financial year 2009-10 the volume of US investment in Pakistan was $468.3 million but in the financial year 2010-11 it declined to $ 238.9. Likewise, in the same period UK investment has also declined from $294.6 million to $208.1. He said that many other countries are also squeezing their investment in Pakistan. While citing the example he said that Japan’s investment in Pakistan has reduced from $26.8 million to $3.2 million, Switzerland’s investment has reduced from $170.6 million to $47.2 and German investment has reduced from $53 to $21.2 in the period from FY2009-10 to FY2010-11. He said that overall 26.8% decrease in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been recorded including Privatization Proceeds as compared to FY 2009-10.

He said that ongoing energy crisis and worst law and order situation are the main factors spoiling the investment scenario but political blame-game, unstable economic policies, poor infrastructure situation and high input cost are equally responsible.


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