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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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eklavya
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby eklavya » 09 Sep 2017 23:15



It's even worse than it looks for Pakistan as their currency is about 20% over-valued against the USD.

Despite the low oil price, Pakistan is running a huge current account deficit, and is perpetually on the verge of default of its foreign currency borrowings. If / when the oil price picks up, Pakistan's economy will implode.

Bangladesh has also benefitted from "exporting" what some reports suggest are 20 million of its citizens to India (that's almost 15% of its current population). I see a thread about 50,000 Rohingyas (basically bengalis living in Burma for centuries as far as I can tell) in India; what about the other 20 million!

Bangladesh has also benefitted from pro development policies and not wasting resources on its military. Some of its social indicators are actually ahead of India too.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kapilrdave » 11 Sep 2017 18:30

Bangladesh benefits from its cheap labor. It's really cheap out there and people would work hard for extended shifts for very little. Their textile industry has picked up strongly. The only way to beat their cheap labor is by automation and mass production by biggies of India. That's what is being planned at the moment.

yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 11 Sep 2017 20:09

^^^^ True Bangladesh has very cheap and hardworking labour, but what really benefits them is the quota system. And I hope for Bangladesh's sake and our sake it stays that way. Otherwise there will be huge pressure on our Eastern border - humanitarian challenges, population growth (when people are unemployed, what do you think they do?), extremism and illegal migration.

Besides, it is China which is eating everyone's lunch today and automation will actually end up moving jobs not to India or to China, but back to the West.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kapilrdave » 11 Sep 2017 20:22

Automation still requires labor. Besides, it is inevitable.
My last on OT.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 11 Sep 2017 21:45

kapilrdave wrote:Automation still requires labor. Besides, it is inevitable.
My last on OT.


Spot on, the only way to succeed with automation is to be the first mover. Trying to stall it is like commies in all their wisdom trying to stall computerization in the 70s.

Also, BD's success IIRC at least when compared with India in textiles is because they are granted some favorable import terms/quotas by US/EU that for some reason India is denied. Pakistan has the same market access but manages to fail at anything except Jihad.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Falijee » 12 Sep 2017 06:12

Non-Performing Loans Rise by Rs 60 Billion in Q2 FY 16-17

The figure of fresh non-performing loans (NPL) has increased by Rs. 60 billion. The agriculture sector provides the bulk of the fresh NPLs.
This was stated in State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) 2nd quarter review of Financial Year 2016-17.

Looking forward for the "other sectors" ( manufacturing, exports, tourism, banking ) to contribute "their share" to increase the NPL statistics :twisted:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 12 Sep 2017 06:49

eklavya wrote:


It's even worse than it looks for Pakistan as their currency is about 20% over-valued against the USD.

Despite the low oil price, Pakistan is running a huge current account deficit, and is perpetually on the verge of default of its foreign currency borrowings. If / when the oil price picks up, Pakistan's economy will implode.

Bangladesh has also benefitted from "exporting" what some reports suggest are 20 million of its citizens to India (that's almost 15% of its current population). I see a thread about 50,000 Rohingyas (basically bengalis living in Burma for centuries as far as I can tell) in India; what about the other 20 million!

Bangladesh has also benefitted from pro development policies and not wasting resources on its military. Some of its social indicators are actually ahead of India too.


what rubbish!!

there is not a single bangladeshi in India and the bangladesh PM herself has said this on occasion and she will not lie.

it's a vile ploy to malign bangladesh.

in the end, you will all realize that more damage will be done to India by the bengali muslim rather than the panjabi muslim.

the beedis in such large numbers have piggybacked on to the Indian economy and just see how much they are sending back home by way of remittances.

old data but still illustrative

Yet, recent World Bank data (Bilateral Remittance Matrix, 2014) show, of the $7.6 billion of outward remittances from India, 54 per cent or $4.16 billion was to Bangladesh alone in that year. Almost every year, 50-55 per cent of India’s total outward remittances are to Bangladesh.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 12 Sep 2017 17:59

Pakistan seeks multi-billion dollar loans from China-based AIIB for uplift projects

Pakistan has tabled lists of development projects for seeking multi-billion dollars loans from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) including for infrastructure, hydropower and installing smart meters in Pakistan.
AIIB Vice President stated that Pakistan has been an active member of the Bank No $hit!?
Pakistan required total investment to the tune of $ 55 billion for complete overhauling of transmission and distribution system of cash-bleeding power sector in Pakistan. :eek:


Wha...!? Why would a bank lend to a sector which just admitted that it is "bleeding cash"? That idiot official should be fired for letting out state secrets.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/229221 ... t-projects

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kancha » 13 Sep 2017 10:12


anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 13 Sep 2017 17:51

Country will be forced to re-enter IMF plan: PTI

Portray­ing a bleak picture of the economy, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI)’s financial wizard Asad Umar has warned that “due to mismanagement of the economy by the ruling party”, Pakistan will be forced to re-enter the IMF programme — on harsher terms — in 2018.
Mr Umar presented figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan that showed negative trends in all segments of economy with a serious increase in foreign and local debts, rise in indirect taxes and decline in direct taxes.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1357368/count ... f-plan-pti

But...but...but...the baki leaderans said this a year ago:

Pakistan does not need IMF support anymore, claims Ishaq Dar

“Pakistan will soon stop looking towards IMF for assistance. The last session with IMF is underway right now,” said the finance minister.
We will not go to IMF for assistance, Dar added.
He went on to say that by 2050 Pakistan will become the 18th biggest economic nation across the world.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1274681

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 13 Sep 2017 18:01

Not sure why Pakis are worried about IMF plan. It's not like they have stuck to any commitments or followed the IMF plan in the past. They have literally been running on IMF/American largesse without any checks and balances, unlike the strict terms that countries like Argentina and Venezuela etc were forced to adhere to.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2017 16:10

X Posted on the STFUP Thread

Pakistan saves $4bln in loan repayments on yen strength

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan managed to save at least three billion dollars in loan repayments to Japan during the past four years as rise in Japanese yen value against dollar turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the south Asian economy faced with widening current account deficit, officials said on Saturday.

“Fluctuation of yen against dollar helped Pakistan in getting benefits of three to four billion dollars in loan repayments,” an official said.

Yen’s value reached to one and half year high of 111 to one dollar and edged up nearly nine percent on foreign exchange markets last year, the highest among 10 industrial nations.

The Japanese government, however, is wallowing to keep yen under control to wake up its snoozing inflation.

Officials said Pakistan received around $35 billion as external loans during the last fiscal year of 2015/16 to meet its financing needs of $30 billion.

Currently, the total loan assistance from the Japanese government stands at $960 million and the grant at $156m.

Officials said the country’s current account deficit amounted to $20 billion in the last four years. The main surge sprang in FY2017 when current account deficit peaked to $12.2 billion, equal to four percent of GDP, from eight billion during three years.

Analysts were anticipating a widening current account deficit for 2016/17 due to higher imports on more than $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects (CPEC) and recovery in international oil prices as well as sluggish remittance inflows and subdued exports.

Imports rose 18.67 percent to $53 billion in FY2017, while export fell to $20.448 billion during the period.

Export sector, however, started to show recovery. Exports grew 13.2 percent in the first three months of the current fiscal year, a good omen for the fragile external sector and the economy that posted a decade-high growth of 5.3 percent in FY2017.

The officials said foreign exchange reserves climbed to $16 billion in the last four years from six billion dollars earlier.

Analysts, however, said the Stat Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves almost reached to the level of FY2015 after touching nearly $19 billion last year.

SBP’s data showed that its existing reserves are hovering around 14 to 15 billion dollars. They stood at 13.53 $ billion by June-end of 2015.

Topline Research, in a report, forecast that current account deficit is likely to reach $16.39 billion in FY2018. In the following years, the deficit is, however, likely to slid at $14.73 billion in FY2019 and $13.52 billion in FY2020.

“We expect the current account deficit to be in the range of 5 to 5.5 percent of GDP in FY2018, (which) may result in further depletion of SBP’s FX reserves by $3 billion to $13 billion – below 3-month of import cover,” Saad Hashemy, director research at Topline Securities said. “We estimate that funding gap of $10 to 11 billion for FY2018 will likely be arranged from World Bank/Asian Development Bank and dollar bonds/sukuks,”

Hashemy said short-term debt is a temporary measure and is not sustainable.

“The government after elections in FY19 will need to take strict measures, including rupee devaluation, hike in interest rates, duties on non-essential imports and incentives for exporters,” he added.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 22 Sep 2017 15:57

arun wrote:A real Honour and Dignity aka H&D nightmare for the Mohammadden Terrorism fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Bangladesh which separated from the Mohammadden Terrorism fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 1971 with our help overtakes the Islamic Republic in per capita GDP at Market Exchange Rates per the Economist:

Bangladesh’s GDP per person is now higher than Pakistan’s
At market exchanges rates, at least

Print edition | Asia
Sep 7th 2017

WHEN Bangladesh won independence from Pakistan in 1971, it was much poorer than the country it left. Industry accounted for only 6-7% of its GDP, compared with over 20% in Pakistan. The battle for independence had killed or displaced millions, damaged roads and railways, and severed ties with Pakistan’s bankers and industrialists (including the owner of one of the world’s biggest jute mills). Even before the war, Bangladesh had been trampled by another apocalyptic horseman: a cyclone killed hundreds of thousands in 1970. The country’s independence leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, complained that West Pakistan had not promptly shared its bumper wheat crop or “given a yard of cloth for our shrouds”.

Last month revealed a remarkable turnaround. Bangladesh’s GDP per person is now higher than Pakistan’s. Converted into dollars at market exchange rates, it was $1,538 in the past fiscal year (which ended on June 30th). Pakistan’s was about $1,470.

Strange as it may sound, Bangladesh jumped ahead because of an advance in Pakistan. On August 25th Pakistan released the results of its census, updating earlier population estimates. They showed that the country has 207.8m people, more than 9m more than previously thought. It may now have the fifth biggest population in the world, surpassing Brazil’s. But the new count also lopped 4-5% off Pakistan’s GDP per person, the arithmetic consequence of revealing so many more people.

A caveat should be noted. A dollar stretches further in Pakistan than in Bangladesh because prices in the former tend to be lower. So Pakistan’s $1,470 per person actually has more purchasing power than Bangladesh’s $1,538.

This is nonetheless a good moment to celebrate Bangladesh’s economic progress. Its annual growth has averaged more than 6% over the past ten years and has run above 7% over the past two. Industry accounts for 29% of its GDP. A country that once lacked cloth for shrouds now exports more ready-made garments than India and Pakistan combined. Working conditions are still far worse than they should be. They are also far better than they once were.

Bangladesh’s GDP per person received a boost from another source. Its last census, in 2011, led to a large revision of the country’s population, larger even than Pakistan’s. But in Bangladesh’s case, the revision was downwards.


The Economist:

Bangladesh’s GDP per person is now higher than Pakistan’s : At market exchanges rates, at least


Finally someone in the Mohammadden Terrorism fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan gathers the courage to write about the Honour and Dignity aka H&D demolishing news item in the Economist of Bangladesh which separated from the Islamic Republic in 1971 with our help, overtakeing the Islamic Republic in terms of per capita GDP at Market Exchange Rates:

Op Ed in Express Tribune by Pervez Tahir who formerly was Chief Economist of the Planning Commission of the Mohammadden Terrorism fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan:

When East overtakes West
By Dr Pervez TahirPublished: September 22, 2017

While the budget speech claims that Pakistan will be among the 20 largest economies by 2030 and the Vision 2025 sees the country in the list of 10 largest economies by 2047, a recent article, “East overtakes West,” in The Economist has thrown a spanner in the works. The east is the erstwhile East Pakistan and the west is today’s Pakistan. It shows that the GDP per capita of Bangladesh is $1,538 and that of Pakistan lags behind at $1,470. This is the result of a GDP growth rate of over six per cent per annum in the past 12 years. One-third of the GDP is contributed by industry and the value-added garments exports are larger than India and Pakistan put together.

The dominant sentiment in the west was optimistic. Most investment and foreign aid utilisation had taken place in the west. Growth as well as income per capita had been consistently higher than the east. Land-man ratio was far better. The east, in short, was a demographic, climatic and economic liability. Shahid Javed Burki (Pakistan Economic and Social Review, June 1972) went further. His optimism was not just based on the “statistical improvement brought about by the severance from the economy of the poor region of East Pakistan,” but on the assessment of economic potential. He estimated that there was a net transfer of public and private resources from west to east of the order of 2.3 per cent of its GDP. The productive use of these resources would raise the already high rate of investment. Quoted by Burki, The Economist took a pessimistic view in April 1972, stating that “sales to the east before the break-up were rising faster than exports and the loss of east has already led to setbacks in the production of cotton yarn and fabrics, cigarettes and certain chemicals. To divert these goods to the world markets will require an upgrading of quality (eg in cotton textiles), even if markets can be found at all. Equipment would need to be imported (for which foreign exchange may be lacking), because of Pakistan’s high cost structure, subsidies may be needed.”

As economic developments have unfolded since 1972, The Economist has the last laugh. The most contentious issue of the day was the inter-wing disparity of income per capita. Economists from the east would explain it in terms of the net transfer from east to west and offer a two-economy model as a solution. The recent reversal of the disparity adds substance to their case. In an opinion piece for The Pakistan Times before the formation of Bangladesh, I had argued that “Pakistan is a case of two brothers minding their own business most of the time and each other’s some of the time.” It is, however, not just that Bangladesh is now on its own. There are some other factors in east overtaking west. First, Bengalis in the east used to be stereotyped in the west as interested in nothing but procreation to produce a crop of agitators. In 1970, the population was 65 million in the east and 58 million in the west. By 1987, the situation had reversed, and the census 2017 estimates population of Pakistan at 207.8 million against Bangladesh’s 164.8 million. The addition to Pakistan’s population since 1970 is only a few million less than the total population of Bangladesh. Second, military expenditure as a percentage of the GDP in Bangladesh has been just over one per cent compared to over three per cent in Pakistan. Third, and related to the first two, Pakistan is among the top 20 scorers on the Global Conflict Risk Index. Bangladesh does not even make the list.


From here:

When East overtakes West

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Sep 2017 03:51

X Posted on the TERRORISTAN Thread

Terroristan's Debt and Liabilities Profile

Terroristan's Total Debt and Liabilities : FY 17 i.e. 30-06-2017 : Rupees 25,062.1 Billion

Terroristan GDP FY 17 i.e. 30-06-2017 : 31,862.2

Thus Terroristan Debt : 78.66% of GDP. Terroristan Per Capita Debt : Rupees 121,073.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 26 Sep 2017 11:20

WB suspends support loans for Pakistan

“Last month, the WB team conveyed Pakistani authorities that they cannot provide programme loans/budgetary support because of macroeconomic indicators,” sources from the World Bank based in Washington confirmed to The News here on Sunday.


Good news.

kv

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kancha » 27 Sep 2017 22:21

Keeps getting better!

Pakistan’s twin deficits may be hard to bear: ADB

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said that Pakistan’s twin deficits – that are historically root causes of bringing an economy down – would further worsen in the current fiscal year, projecting that the current account deficit may widen to as much as $14.5 billion.

The projected deficit is $5.5 billion more than the finance ministry’s estimates for 2017-18. It is also $2.5 billion more than the record deficit of $12.1 billion booked in the last fiscal year 2016-17.

In an update of its flagship annual publication, Asian Development Outlook 2017, the ADB also termed the Rs1.4 trillion budget deficit target “ambitious”, suggesting that it will be difficult to achieve in an uncertain political environment. Pakistan will also miss its 6% economic growth target that according to the ADB will remain at 5.5%.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 03 Oct 2017 05:09

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/233333 ... na-by-2024
Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024

SLAMABAD: Pakistan has to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion, which China has invested on account of banks’ loan in 19 early harvest projects mostly relating to energy sector under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).The sources in Chinese Embassy told ‘The News’ that loans which China had given to Pakistan were considered as concessional loans, having special subsidy from the Chinese government. These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gagan » 03 Oct 2017 07:17

There is no way Pakistan can pay that amount of money.
The question is what are they going to give to China in return?
Their mines and the output will end up in Chinese hands. Gawadar Naval Base is on lease for 99 years. The Reko Dik, Gold mines are a stone's throw away from Gawadar - Don't be surprised if the mines gets given to the Chinese, who then ship the gold out of Gawadar !!!

Gold is currently some 41,000 US Dollars per Kg

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mort Walker » 03 Oct 2017 08:09

These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.


Either the News doesn't know or they're really bad at math. If true, that would make TSP's foreign debt is over $9 trillion.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 03 Oct 2017 15:22

Pakis are used to not paying IMF, WB and many western backed loans (many have been renegotiated and written off) they expect the Chinese to do the same thing.

Well it depends how well the Chinese economy does, then the Chinese might be a bot forgiving, but if the Chinese are going to need the money, Pakistani infrastructure including military infrastructure is going to go down to 7th century levels.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Oct 2017 18:07

Aditya_V wrote:Pakis are used to not paying IMF, WB and many western backed loans (many have been renegotiated and written off) they expect the Chinese to do the same thing.

Well it depends how well the Chinese economy does, then the Chinese might be a bot forgiving, but if the Chinese are going to need the money, Pakistani infrastructure including military infrastructure is going to go down to 7th century levels.
Aditya-V Ji :

As you are aware the Chinese are “charging” the Terroristanis about 27% Profit on certain projects, 18% Interest on others and, I believe, 6% to 7% in Electric Generation Plants.

As you must be aware that the Chinese – like their Russian Counterparts – are providing “Mothballed” Plants. This is similar to the Bhilai Steel Plant as well as the Pakistan Steel Plant as both were Plants which had been Mothballed in certain Central Asian Republics.

BSP was agreed to in early 1955 and Commissioned in early 1959 with an Annual Capacity of One Million Tonnes. It has now reached an Annual Capacity of Five Million Tonnes. I believe the BSP along with the Tata Steel Plant in Jamshedpur are the “Cheapest” producers of Steel.

Pak Steel was agreed to in early 1974 and launched in early 1985. It commenced with an Annual Capacity of 1.1 Million Tonnes, its Layout Designed Capacity was 2 Million Tonnes with the ability of expansion to 5 Million Tonnes. Pak Steel attained a Maximum Capacity of 18% and has not produced Steel since Mid 2015.

From this you will appreciate that it is likely that the Chinese Built Electricity Generating Plants in Terroristan will most probably never reach their Production Targets and possible for the next 20 Years Terroristan will just keep paying the Chinese Interest + Insurance + any other charges as “Dreamt up” by the Chinese.

Thus Terroristan will pay possibly twice or even thrice the original contracted amount!

This reminds me of the Old saying by the Pathan Money Lenders in Mumbai “ Koochi Hum Ko Byaj Day Do. Hum ko Mudal (complete payment of Debt) Ka Zarrorat Nahin Hai”

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Oct 2017 18:20

Prem wrote:https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/233333-Pakistan-to-pay-back-100-bn-to-China-by-2024
Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024

SLAMABAD: Pakistan has to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion, which China has invested on account of banks’ loan in 19 early harvest projects mostly relating to energy sector under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).The sources in Chinese Embassy told ‘The News’ that loans which China had given to Pakistan were considered as concessional loans, having special subsidy from the Chinese government. These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.
Prem Ji :Terroristan having to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion is paying Over Five Times the Amount Borrowed. Surely this can't be Right - However, I Pray that it is so! :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 03 Oct 2017 22:06

A multitude of reasons for the fall in exports
Why worry? SeePak will solve everything.

The government has finally conceded that the conflict between its trade and monetary policies was one of the key reasons behind the continuously declining exports, as nearly 45 products lost competitiveness in the international market since 2013.
There is a long list of endogenous and exogenous factors that are affecting Pakistan’s export competitiveness in the region.
On the endogenous side the most important factor is the conflict between the tariff policy and monetary policy. Currency appreciation in relation to competitors like India and Bangladesh is affecting competitiveness. Moreover, import tariff on the export inputs has further added to the cost of production.
Secondly, Pakistan’s exports are highly concentrated in limited items like cotton and cotton manufacturers, leather, rice and a few more products.
exports are also dominated by primary and intermediate goods rather than value-added finished products
severe shortage of energy supply, poor quality of infrastructure, outdated technology, lack of export culture, and weak contract enforcements
Diversifying the export market is a major irritant in the enhancement of export proceeds. More than 50pc exports rely on only six markets — the United States, China, Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Britain and Germany.
A third factor is the low production of certain commodities that have a high local demand. For instance, local demand for cement has increased while its availability as surpluses reduced for exports purposes.
A major factor constraining export growth has been the slowdown in the economies of Pakistan’s major importing partners— China, and the EU. Stagnation in these economies led to low demand for Pakistani goods.
China has continued to reduce its demand for Pakistani yarn and fabric as competing countries are undercutting their prices significantly. Moreover, China is now more inclined towards high-tech products instead of low-tech products like textiles and footwear.
On the other hand, export of basmati and non-basmati rice varieties declined mainly because of a shift in demand from key markets like Saudi Arabia and UAE, away from Pakistani rice to other countries.


http://www.dawn.com/news/1361399/a-mult ... ts?preview

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby JohnTitor » 03 Oct 2017 23:21

Peregrine wrote:Prem Ji :Terroristan having to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion is paying Over Five Times the Amount Borrowed. Surely this can't be Right - However, I Pray that it is so! :rotfl:

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I thought the same as much. 5x returns is amazing for china.

Mich as I'd like to believe it, I think it is what people here call sialkot statistics

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 04 Oct 2017 08:46

But are there not reports that the Chinese are expecting as much as 80% of the loans to be written off/ defaulted

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Oct 2017 13:25

Manish_P wrote:But are there not reports that the Chinese are expecting as much as 80% of the loans to be written off/ defaulted


Why will they, the Chinese are not going to display thier worry publically and show how they are going to take out thier returns, and the Paki Faujis are hardly going to give up the gravy train.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Oct 2017 14:40

Manish_P wrote:But are there not reports that the Chinese are expecting as much as 80% of the loans to be written off/ defaulted
Aditya_V wrote:Why will they, the Chinese are not going to display thier worry publically and show how they are going to take out thier returns, and the Paki Faujis are hardly going to give up the gravy train.
Manish P Ji & Aditya V Ji :

1. Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to? - Nadia Naviwala

This is posted on page 46 of the Terroristan - June 20, 2017 Thread on “27 Aug 2017 13:47”

2. How the Silk Road plans will be financed – James Kynge

Mr Miller says Chinese officials privately admit they expect to lose 80 per cent of their investment in Pakistan, 50 per cent in Myanmar and 30 per cent in central Asia. – From Mr. Millers Book ““China’s Asian Dream” – Zed Books

Similarly there has been an Article by a Chinese officials-commentator stating the same “80%” Figure.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 04 Oct 2017 16:19

Peregrine sir... you sure have the eyes of your raptor namesake 8)

So if the 80% figure is assumed to be accurate then calculation would amount to no-profit no-loss hain jee :?:

Assume 100 USD loan expecting 5X return ie 500 USD

But Pakis are going to default 80%. So they will return loan and interest on only 20 USD @ 5X. Which comes out to 100 USD

I must be doing something terribly wrong... or is it lahori logic and sialkot statistics together messing with my mathematically challenged brain..

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 04 Oct 2017 19:07

If the Chini lizards are expecting to write off 80% of their investment in Pakistan, they will still make 1.5B$ profit (20 -18.5 - Not including interest), have the Pakis by their gonards and Pakis would be leasing the whole country (including TFTA motorhams) to them.

Very profitable onlee!!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Oct 2017 19:13

Manish_P wrote:Peregrine sir... you sure have the eyes of your raptor namesake 8)

So if the 80% figure is assumed to be accurate then calculation would amount to no-profit no-loss hain jee :?:

Assume 100 USD loan expecting 5X return ie 500 USD

But Pakis are going to default 80%. So they will return loan and interest on only 20 USD @ 5X. Which comes out to 100 USD

I must be doing something terribly wrong... or is it lahori logic and sialkot statistics together messing with my mathematically challenged brain..
Manish P Ji :

No lahori logic and/or sialkoti statistics.

The Chinawala will only do business wherein they make "HUGE PROFITS". Here goes :

The Interest-Profit-Insurance is for :

1. Electricity Generating Plants : Herein the Chinese have giving the Terroristanis "Old Mothballed Coal fired Plants". It is just junk for which Chinese are charging the Stupidos "Loadsa Money". This is at about 6-7% Interest plus Insurance Costs etc. Whatever the Terroristanis pay is "Pule Plofit" for the Chinese as the Steam Powered Plants are a Load of Junk!

2. Certain Projects are on 17% or so Interest.

3. Others are at 27% Guaranteed Profit.

Your brain is not at all mathematically challenged. It is the "Lack of Brains" suffered by the Terroristanis who have "signed on the dotted line".

Thus if Chinese can extract TEN YEARS OF PAYMENT then they are laughing all the way to be Bank!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 04 Oct 2017 20:29

Ah. I should have guessed the Peking Pule Plofit Plocess working.. much obliged, Peregrine sir. Interesting times ahead.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby JohnTitor » 04 Oct 2017 20:51

I don't think the chinese will just "write off" those loans. It will be an accounting writeoff. But that's it.

Most likely they will acquire equity in other places. Going by that assumption, the returns will be much higher than 5x because the acquisitions will be strategic in nature with india in mind

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 04 Oct 2017 23:51

JohnTitor wrote:I don't think the chinese will just "write off" those loans. It will be an accounting writeoff. But that's it.Most likely they will acquire equity in other places. Going by that assumption, the returns will be much higher than 5x because the acquisitions will be strategic in nature with india in mind


I repeat. SeePak was always a grand land grab scheme of biblical proportions.

SeePak was never a trade highway. Chinisthan had to have an access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea. Chini loans were always supposed to go unpaid. When the notes are called, loans would be converted to equity in the form of land holdings valued at throw away rates (after all, what is sun dried, parched land worth?). G'wadar is maybe worth a couple of extra shekels. B'lochistan has natural wealth. The Karakorum highway is another strategic asset that the chinis would take ownership of in exchange for unpaid debt. As we all saw what happened to the Lankans and other short sighted nations in Africa. It is about to happen to the pakis. The chinis had planned it that way. They admitted that they would lose 80% of the loan amount. In exchange they invoke sovereign guarantees and demand ownership of land assets.

Why should India care? That is the $100 Bn question.

The swap of debt for equity brings chini ownership of pakjabi plains which will be uncomfortably close to Indian Punjab. Think of PLA in LaWhore and PLAAF in Sargodha. Ownership of g'wadar will enable chini monitoring of Indian and western naval assets in the Arabian Sea as well as potential tampering of the submarine fiber cable that connects India with the west (see below). No data will ever be safe.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 05 Oct 2017 02:43

anupmisra wrote:The swap of debt for equity brings chini ownership of pakjabi plains which will be uncomfortably close to Indian Punjab. Think of PLA in LaWhore and PLAAF in Sargodha. Ownership of g'wadar will enable chini monitoring of Indian and western naval assets in the Arabian Sea as well as potential tampering of the submarine fiber cable that connects India with the west (see below). No data will ever be safe.


Will not that be a good thing? One is a pig breeding nation and another is a pig eating nation. Match made in taller than mountain heavens!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby JohnTitor » 05 Oct 2017 03:39

anupmisra wrote:The swap of debt for equity brings chini ownership of pakjabi plains which will be uncomfortably close to Indian Punjab. Think of PLA in LaWhore and PLAAF in Sargodha. Ownership of g'wadar will enable chini monitoring of Indian and western naval assets in the Arabian Sea as well as potential tampering of the submarine fiber cable that connects India with the west (see below). No data will ever be safe.

Absolutely. It's a land grab opportunity.

But I don't think it'll be a walk over either. Pakistan isn't like Sri Lanka or some African country.

Here every inch of land they acquire as equity in return for loan losses will be contested with violence. No doubt the aam Abdul will start hitting China hard and there's nothing they can do about it. The army won't really intervene because they don't want to lose control over territory either no matter how tall the friend. Secondly, CPEC is something that the civilian govt pushed for, it'll be an excuse to overthrow the government in another spectacular coup.

The way I see it, there's going to be fireworks of epic proportions
Last edited by JohnTitor on 05 Oct 2017 08:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 05 Oct 2017 03:56

disha wrote:
anupmisra wrote:The swap of debt for equity brings chini ownership of pakjabi plains which will be uncomfortably close to Indian Punjab. Think of PLA in LaWhore and PLAAF in Sargodha. Ownership of g'wadar will enable chini monitoring of Indian and western naval assets in the Arabian Sea as well as potential tampering of the submarine fiber cable that connects India with the west (see below). No data will ever be safe.


Will not that be a good thing? One is a pig breeding nation and another is a pig eating nation. Match made in taller than mountain heavens!


I am sure you are aware of this. In many instances the debt swap would have been a good thing (corporate debt bundled and swapped for equity so that the company's bottom line looks better). But in reality the majority owner gets a controlling seat on the board and owns that portion of the "company" including its assets and IP. In the case of pakhanistan, the chini birathers will end of controlling majority shares of the key assets such as those mentioned above. They can then do whatever they want (akin to the majority share holders of a company). That's why India should care. It affects India's security. Other than that, who cares a fig if paki assets are owned by the chinis or the pakis are drowning in their own urine.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 05 Oct 2017 04:03

JohnTitor wrote:Pakistan isn't like Sri Lanka or some African country.

Here every inch of land they acquire as equity in return for loan losses will be contested with violence. No doubt the aam Abdul will start hitting China hard and there's nothing they can do about it. The any won't really intervene because they don't want to lose control over territory either no matter how tall the friend. Secondly, CPEC is something that the civilian govt pushed for, it'll be an excuse to overthrow the government in another spectacular coup.

The way I see it, there's going to be fireworks of epic proportions


Good points. If you play the action/reaction decision tree further along, the chinis will wisely hire retired pakis to control the unwashed paki mobs. Pakis warring with pakis is a normal thing and will insulate the chinis. Also, pakis are generally more content with chini ownership than anyone else's (particularly Indian). SeePak was a good idea but the way it was underwritten and executed, it will be a disaster. It means only one certain end - the demise of paki ownership of their valuable assets. This is why India should intervene.

By the way, the Lankans will object to your demoting them below the paki stature.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Oct 2017 04:57

Pakis will happily hypothecate themselves and the whole of Shitland in hopes that it threatens or delivers an occasional jhapad( diplomatic or otherwise) to India. They will rejoice in the feeling of being superior to India as China will just front for Pakistan. The real fun will come when they see China not delivering in making India feel inadequate and will really bring their full pakistaniyat in play when the reverse happens (a la Doklam).
Attacks on Chinis will then start and there will be a new conspiracy theory of Chinis being Yakjah with yahud and hanud against Islam.

Recall that after the Dokhlam stand off ended there were a couple of (Anal)yst on paki talk shows bad mouthing China for not being able to take military action against India and even said China ne hamme dhokha diya. :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 06 Oct 2017 01:31

Actually it is a Yahud and Hanud conspiracy to allow the Yakjahs to control the momeens. Yakjahs will take the money from the pure momeens and provide zero interest loans to Hanud to make HSR from Bengaluru, Kerala to Madras, Chennai.
Last edited by disha on 07 Oct 2017 01:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 06 Oct 2017 02:22

Hanud being chankian is negotiating with Germany to give very low interest loan in return for contract for the Bangalore to Chennai HSR.


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