Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 21 Feb 2019 11:53

Fikar naat Maulaners.. the saudi prince will make things all right

From Yawn - Fiscal health deteriorating sharply, half-year data shows

Pakistan’s fiscal deficit crossed 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of this fiscal year – the highest in eight years – despite government’s claims to have put the house in order with greater fiscal discipline and austerity. Almost all the major fiscal indicators – both on expenditure and revenue side – showed deterioration in first half of the current fiscal year when compared to same period of last year.


Total revenue collection dropped to just 6.1pc of GDP in first half of current year compared to 6.6pc of GDP last fiscal. Tax revenue was also down to 5.4pc of GDP this year compared to 5.6pc of last year. The performance of non-tax revenue was no exception that stood at 0.6pc of GDP in first half of CFY compared to 1pc of GDP same period last year. Tax revenue amounted to Rs2.08tr in first half of current year compared to Rs2.03tr, showing a nominal increase of Rs55bn or 2.71pc. Normally, the tax revenue should increase every year at the cumulative rate of inflation and economic growth rate. That means the tax revenue should have automatically increased by at least 11pc (over 4pc GDP plus over 7pc inflation).


The defence expenditure in first six months of current year stood at Rs479.6bn compared to Rs393bn of same period last year, showing a jump of 22pc or Rs87bn. Its share in GDP also inched up to 1.2pc this year against 1.1pc of GDP same period last year. Unfortunately this led to a cut back in the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). The PSDP spending in first half of this year plummeted to Rs328bn compared to Rs520bn of same period last year, showing a reduction of 37pc or about Rs192bn. This is also evident from the fact that overall development spending and net lending dropped to a paltry 1pc of GDP compared to 1.6pc of GDP of last year.


The paki awaam can soon move from grass to the jernails pet goats droppings

Tomatoes in Lahore are being sold for Rs180/kg.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Feb 2019 00:52

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Market watch: KSE-100 loses 785 points as Pak-India tensions rise - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: The stock market had a highly bearish session on Tuesday as the benchmark index remained in the red for the entire day and lost nearly 800 points in the wake of mounting tensions between Pakistan and India.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Feb 2019 18:33

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 35,905.43 - Pt. Change : -68.28 - % Change : -0.19%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,10,337.54 - $ 1 / 71.56

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,957.85 Billion

P S E

Index Current : 38692.69 - Pt. Change : -128.98 - % Change : -0.33%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs Tr.) : 7,747,782,119,715 - $ 1 / 139.00

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 55.74 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 35.13 : 1

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby SBajwa » 28 Feb 2019 02:24

Just for the comparison!! Tomatoes are 20 rs per kg in India while 180 rs per kg in Bakistan!!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Feb 2019 02:46

SBajwa wrote:Just for the comparison!! Tomatoes are 20 rs per kg in India while 180 rs per kg in Bakistan!!!
SBajwa Ji :

As you are Aware Twenty Indian Rupees are Equal to Forty Terroristani Rupees.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Paul » 28 Feb 2019 13:23

India Today channel had a good program on stages of warfare between India/Pakistan

1. Nuke war
2. conventional war
3. Limited war
4. Sub conventional war
5. Asymetric war

Pakistan is in 5th stage and threatens to abruptly take it to 1st stage. That can never happens
What NAMO is doing is 1. taking 5 to 4 and expanding India's options by imposing costs on Pakistan for supporting Terrorism.
2. Calling Pakistan's bluff in threatening to launch nuke war.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby gaurav.p » 28 Feb 2019 13:33

guys with the self endorsed aerial blockade by bakis, can anybody find the economic toll they are taking by not getting the overflight pay or the permit is one time thing?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby prasannasimha » 28 Feb 2019 13:58

1.38$/Km

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Mar 2019 14:58

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

SECP allows foreign investors higher shareholding in PSX - Salman Siddiqui
KARACHI: The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), the apex regulator, has given the go-ahead for increasing the shareholding of foreign portfolio investors in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).
Foreign individual and institutional investors may now buy, hold or trade PSX stocks up to maximum 20% of outstanding shares estimated at around 800 million.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Mar 2019 13:13

Guys looking at flight radar 24 data it seems there a lot of flights leaving Pakistan to China, a side effect of IAF strikes means lot of CPEC workers are temporarily leaving.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mmasand » 04 Mar 2019 15:48

Aditya_V wrote:Guys looking at flight radar 24 data it seems there a lot of flights leaving Pakistan to China, a side effect of IAF strikes means lot of CPEC workers are temporarily leaving.


Almost all of the Chinese flights are scheduled, loads look normal (open source). They are merely latching onto the Western border, the NOTAM currently is keeping them away from any AFB's. The air space closure had little to do with fear of IAF as much as the the lack of strategic reserves of Jet A8. In fact, the loans doled out by MBS and MBZ were to give sovereign guarantees(LC's) so they could purchase fuel from the open market. The fuel farms at KHI were at 55% capacity (JV between Attock/PSOC/NRL/Shell).

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2019 17:27

^^ then why ban transit flights that just overfly Pak?

also lahore to western corridor road would fly near sargodha.
peshwar is also a major base incl F-solah. so is quetta. both are under the western corridor.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mmasand » 04 Mar 2019 18:15

Singha wrote:^^ then why ban transit flights that just overfly Pak?

also lahore to western corridor road would fly near sargodha.
peshwar is also a major base incl F-solah. so is quetta. both are under the western corridor.


The current NOTAM has restrictions along certain routes on the western front, most aircraft fly along the 'greater circle', if there are restrictions along the route and no alternative airport is available in the event of an emergency, they will opt to avoid the airspace all together. These are commercial and operational considerations. Until this morning, several flights to and from IXJ and SXR were routed around Pathankot for 'obvious' reasons.

I can't comment about other airports such as Lahore and Peshawar, there are very few ADS-B radars in the area to track actual flights, Flightradar24 has stated that air traffic over Bak is not accurate. I can only speculate that several commercial airliners will not fly over their airspace as they don't want to be put into a situation where they have to abruptly divert and declare a fuel emergency and no where to go (anything West of NWFP is not prepared for a commercial size airline). PS American and Ukranian AF planes have flown above this area in the last 24 hours.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 08 Mar 2019 06:56

The article linked below has lots of nuggets of information
Dawn-80% of state budget for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for non development expense
The finance department had pitched the next budget at Rs606 billion, which was around seven per cent less than the current budget of Rs648 billion.

The state budget is shrinking

A major portion of the ADP amounting to Rs60 billion is likely to come from the foreign-funded projects, while the province’s core development programme has been pitched at a paltry Rs41 billion. The value of the district component is likely to be around Rs18 billion.

“This is a significant reduction from Rs180 billion in the current fiscal year and is driven by reduced receipts and rising expenses, especially under salary and pensions head,”

Development budget has shrunk drastically and most of it will be supplied by international agencies
It also highlighted slow federal transfers to the province, non-payment of Rs32 billion net hydel profit arrears and below-target realisation for foreign-funded projects.

The federal government of beggaristan doesn't release money to provinces and creates "provincial surplus". And ofcourse the international agencies don't release money.

The document said the government had decided to abolish the posts of redundant designations and had so far identified designations with 6,300 posts, while 1,601 posts had been abolished with the move likely to produce Rs800 million savings.

So the provincial government has taken the bold step of reducing posts, and
extension of the age of superannuation from 60 years to 63 years


Now please see the Peshawar BRT project in this scenario. We had discussed in this thread long back that the first signs of financial strain will appear in provincial budgets.
The standard tactic of beggaristan government is to not release money to provinces and then claim it as provincial surplus.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 08 Mar 2019 06:59

With the government hitting beggaristan economically, request to posters to populate this thread.
@Peregrine ustad, please xpost here as well.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby komal » 08 Mar 2019 07:29

mmasand wrote:
The air space closure had little to do with fear of IAF as much as the the lack of strategic reserves of Jet A8.


Not disputing, just asking how does air space closure conserve aviation fuel?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 08 Mar 2019 08:09

komal wrote:
mmasand wrote:The air space closure had little to do with fear of IAF as much as the the lack of strategic reserves of Jet A8.

Not disputing, just asking how does air space closure conserve aviation fuel?


In the initial days there were zero flights, and my guess and that of others was that this was to reserve aviation fuel for PAF.

These days it's bewildering because their domestic flights are taking a much longer path, using up more fuel in the process.

Clearly there is fear among the pakfauj even as we Indians go about our normal lives.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 08 Mar 2019 08:19

They seem to be flying very few flights. Not all the airports are open. You do not see more than a dozen or so flights inlcuding the foreign airlines in the air at a time.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 08 Mar 2019 08:48

saip wrote:They seem to be flying very few flights. Not all the airports are open. You do not see more than a dozen or so flights inlcuding the foreign airlines in the air at a time.


That is their normal. Not much of an aviation sector to speak of.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Mar 2019 10:26

But lots of flights on Isloo to Bejing route, seems the Chinese have left after the things hotted up and CPEC is temporarily stalled

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 08 Mar 2019 11:35

Please check if it is a scheduled flight or otherwise. If otherwise, then it is interesting. If scheduled, nothing out of the ordinary.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Mar 2019 12:30

Pakistani rupee reaches 141.29 while INR ins 70.11. Real rate of Paki rupee might be 150, I hope the adventure Paki rupee is penalized another 20-30%

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mmasand » 08 Mar 2019 16:32

komal wrote:
mmasand wrote:
The air space closure had little to do with fear of IAF as much as the the lack of strategic reserves of Jet A8.


Not disputing, just asking how does air space closure conserve aviation fuel?


Commercial flights have to be (re)fuelled irrespective of origin or destination as the operators are bound by contractual obligations. By closing off their airspace in the initial days, they conserve Jet A-1 used predominantly by heavy lift and tankers. The NRL JV is only operating at about 55% capacity and you need fuel for electricity and logistics. Merely shifting priorities.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Mar 2019 03:10

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,671.43 - Pt. Change : 53.99 - % Change : -0.15%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,44,67,087.91 - $ 1 / 70.2075

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,060.62 Billion

P S E

Index Current : 38950.23 - Pt. Change : --343.87 - % Change : -0.88%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,986,022,569,940 - $ 1 / 139.00

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 57.45 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 35.87 : 1

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Suraj » 12 Mar 2019 20:20

From economy thread, main contributors to global economic output , in PPP terms:

Where Will Global GDP Growth Come From in the Next Five Years?
Image
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TSP makes an appearance with 1% in 2018-19, but disappears after that, replaced by Bangladesh in 2022-23. India has overtaken the US as #2 as of this year .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 12 Mar 2019 21:08

Suraj wrote:......... TSP makes an appearance with 1% in 2018-19, but disappears after that, replaced by Bangladesh in 2022-23. ..........


One more event that affirms that India did the right thing in 1971 when the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan was evicted with Indian assistance from what today forms Bangladesh 8) .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Mar 2019 20:48

Pakistan fails to secure $3.2 billion UAE oil facility.

Cash-strapped Pakistan has failed to secure a $3.2 billion oil on deferred payments facility from the UAE, a media report on Thursday quoted finance minister Asad Umar as saying.

The oil facility was part of the $6.2 billion that the United Arab Emirates announced to give to Pakistan in December to help the country overcome
the serious economic woes.

"Most probably, the UAE oil facility agreement will not materialise," finance minister Umar told The Express Tribune.

The development could again bring under stress Pakistan's foreign currency reserves that have so far been maintained with help of friendly countries, the report said.

But Umar said the government has made alternative arrangements to meet its external financing needs for this fiscal year.

The reasons for cancellation of the $3.2 billion oil facility by the UAE could not be immediately ascertained, the report said while noting that the UAE had also postponed a scheduled meeting of the Joint Ministerial Commission last month. the report said.

During the visit of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Pakistani authorities had hoped that he would announce the UAE credit oil facility following the same model of Saudi Arabia. Later, the February deadline was given that was also missed, the report said.

It will be a setback for the finance ministry that had declared fully bridging the financing gap on back of $14.5 billion financial support from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and China, the report said.

So far, only Saudi Arabia has given $3 billion in cash and its oil facility on deferred payments has also been finalised.

The development on the UAE front came amid a delay in finalisation of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the report said.
Umar said the IMF is demanding free float of exchange rate but the government wants to move ahead towards this objective in a phased manner.
"The timing and pace of adjustments on flexible exchange rate was a matter of difference but now the differences have narrowed down," he said.

The negotiations with the IMF are continuing since October last year. China is also expected to provide $2 billion dollars as loan next week, said the finance ministry that tried to downplay the cancellation of the UAE oil facility.

The $3.2 billion UAE oil facility was expected to take the pressure off from the foreign exchange market besides stabilising the official foreign currency reserves.

Pakistan arranged the $3 billion cash from Saudi Arabia at 3.2 per cent interest rate. The UAE cash support has been secured for a period of two years at an interest rate of 3 per cent, according to a written reply that Asad Umar submitted in the Senate last week.

Pakistan's foreign currency reserves stood at $8.1 billion as of end of last week that is inclusive of Saudi Arabian, Chinese and UAE cash assistance.

The government continues to follow a multipronged strategy to ensure continued stability in the country's balance of payment (BOP) position. The strategy has included attracting more foreign direct investment, sale of assets and bilateral and multilateral flows, said Dr Khaqan Najeeb, adviser and spokesperson of the ministry of finance.

He said as part of this strategy, all the maturing short-term commercial loans have either been refinanced or rolled over, which will help keep the pressure off from the reserves.

It is assumed that Pakistan's net foreign exchange reserves are negative by close to $10 billion, the report said.

Finance Minister Umar on Wednesday did not disclose the exact figures of Net International Reserves (NIR) held by the SBP, the country's apex bank.
Responding to a question during a meeting of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance, he said when the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government came into power in August, "We were effectively at default stage but I will not share further details.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Mar 2019 08:15

Bakistani Total debt is now 27 trillion-pkr pak tribune
KARACHI: The country’s total debt jumped by 12 per cent to Rs27.07 trillion during the first seven months of this fiscal year, according to latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

During the last 12 months the total debt, however, increased by 19.3pc to Rs22.69tr in January 2018.

The government has been borrowing heavily to meet its expenses due to slow growth in revenue collection during the period under review.

The domestic debt during the July-January period increased by 9.5pc; an increase of Rs1.559tr to Rs16.416tr.

This is the interesting part.
On the other hand, total foreign debt increased by 32pc to Rs9.095tr from Rs6.894tr. The government’s external debt excludes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to SBP for balance of payments support, foreign exchange liabilities but includes the IMF loan for budgetary support.

Please note this also does not include the debts of the power sector popularly known as circular debt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby khan » 15 Mar 2019 08:37

There must be a way to introduce hyper-inflation in Pakistan. That will push them over the tipping point.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mort Walker » 15 Mar 2019 10:09

Today 15 March 2019 marks the first time 1 INR > 2 PKR.

There will be lots of pressure in Punjab to allow imports from TSP as it will be really cheap. Trade must be halted. HELL NO to Kartarpur Corridor opening. Let TSP trade with China.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mort Walker » 15 Mar 2019 10:13

K Mehta wrote:Bakistani Total debt is now 27 trillion-pkr pak tribune
KARACHI: The country’s total debt jumped by 12 per cent to Rs27.07 trillion during the first seven months of this fiscal year, according to latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

During the last 12 months the total debt, however, increased by 19.3pc to Rs22.69tr in January 2018.

The government has been borrowing heavily to meet its expenses due to slow growth in revenue collection during the period under review.

The domestic debt during the July-January period increased by 9.5pc; an increase of Rs1.559tr to Rs16.416tr.

This is the interesting part.
On the other hand, total foreign debt increased by 32pc to Rs9.095tr from Rs6.894tr. The government’s external debt excludes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to SBP for balance of payments support, foreign exchange liabilities but includes the IMF loan for budgetary support.

Please note this also does not include the debts of the power sector popularly known as circular debt.


This means that TSP's total external debt equals or exceeds their GDP. This is a disaster for a developing country.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Mar 2019 16:57

K Mehta wrote:Bakistani Total debt is now 27 trillion-pkr pak tribune
KARACHI: The country’s total debt jumped by 12 per cent to Rs27.07 trillion during the first seven months of this fiscal year, according to latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

During the last 12 months the total debt, however, increased by 19.3pc to Rs22.69tr in January 2018.

The government has been borrowing heavily to meet its expenses due to slow growth in revenue collection during the period under review.

The domestic debt during the July-January period increased by 9.5pc; an increase of Rs1.559tr to Rs16.416tr.

This is the interesting part.
On the other hand, total foreign debt increased by 32pc to Rs9.095tr from Rs6.894tr. The government’s external debt excludes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to SBP for balance of payments support, foreign exchange liabilities but includes the IMF loan for budgetary support.

Please note this also does not include the debts of the power sector popularly known as circular debt.
K Mehta JI :

Actually Terroristani Total Debt - as per the S B P is as follows :

Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities Profile Provisional (In Billion Rupees) :

Pakistan's Total Debt and Liabilities (I +II) : TR RS 33,238.8 Billion i.e. 33.2388 TRILLION as on 31-12-2018

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 15 Mar 2019 19:34

Mort Walker wrote:Today 15 March 2019 marks the first time 1 INR > 2 PKR.
There will be lots of pressure in Punjab to allow imports from TSP as it will be really cheap. Trade must be halted. HELL NO to Kartarpur Corridor opening. Let TSP trade with China.


It doesn't work that way. There will be a detente package involving restoration of overflights, and imports/exports as a compromise peace measure to make all parties look good to their constituencies and to the world. It's ok. 3 steps forward, 2 steps back - that is still forward progress. Anyway we export way more to them than we import. As I have argued here before, we also need to import strategically from them - where their costs of production including environmental and other costs is more than what they sell it to us for.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Mar 2019 21:56

uae deposited 1 billion usd- pak tribune
But it is not free
The UAE has provided the soft loan at an interest rate of 3%

And
Pakistan is scheduled to pay off $1 billion for a maturing Eurobond in April…this will be in addition to other external debt payments during the month

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Mar 2019 22:03

Peregrine wrote:K Mehta JI :

Actually Terroristani Total Debt - as per the S B P is as follows :

Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities Profile Provisional (In Billion Rupees) :

Pakistan's Total Debt and Liabilities (I +II) : TR RS 33,238.8 Billion i.e. 33.2388 TRILLION as on 31-12-2018

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When converted to USD it is 237 billion usd as much as the entire gdp of Pakistan.
Still it is not counting the circular debt and other hidden debts. Not accounting for the inflated economy of Pakistan as well.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2019 22:14

khan wrote:There must be a way to introduce hyper-inflation in Pakistan. That will push them over the tipping point.


By making them spend more on weapons. A regular surge of IAF jets, naval movement to increase insurance of tankers getting oil, with enough noise about " about to go nuclear", should help.

In the near term, FATF black listing will be very useful.
Last edited by nam on 15 Mar 2019 22:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 15 Mar 2019 22:16

It's just a matter of time that USD-PKR makes the next quantum jump. It will happen on Saturday, and likely before Ramadan begins. 150 is calling

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2019 22:16

Has Pak recieved the IMF bail out yet?

I expect trouble from PA as soon as the IMF money is in the bank. They will not be expecting to give it back anyways..

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Mar 2019 22:44

gas slabs to be kept high sucking money from aam abdul in bakistan
No respite from the increased gas bill
and more money to pay for electricity
Welcome to Naya Bakistan- the new North Korea.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Mar 2019 22:57

nam wrote:Has Pak recieved the IMF bail out yet?

I expect trouble from PA as soon as the IMF money is in the bank. They will not be expecting to give it back anyways
nam Ji :

Not yet. Terroristanis have not yet agreed to US$ 1 = Tr. Rs. 150.

However they are raising Gas Prices on the Basis of US$ 1 = Tr. Rs. 180 as follows :

Pakistan to likely face another 41% hike in gas prices from July

The Pakistani rupee is likely to depreciate further as the utilities have been given the go-ahead to calculate gas prices on the basis of exchange rate of Rs180 against the US dollar to determine their revenue requirement for the next financial year 2019-20.


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