Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Guddu » 25 Apr 2019 08:49

abhijitm wrote:
Mollick.R wrote:
A nitpick.
200% increase means 2 times cost increase.
300% means 3 times.

We know that. Hence the joke.


100% increase would increase price two fold...

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 25 Apr 2019 09:46

Vikas wrote:
ramana wrote:Ca almonds used to fund terror in India

viewtopic.php?p=2344863#p2344863


Why would India import Cali Almonds from Pakistan as LOC Trade. It wasn't as if Pakis were producing them internally ?
Indian buyers could have directly procured from the same source which Pakis were using probably at a cheaper rate. Was that the reason for Under Invoicing?

There are too many wheels within the wheels.


CA Almonds are aggressively promoted by the Govt of US and CA. I've met with the head of that agency who offered us a large supply, free - we used some in the restaurant chain I ran. They are sold at attractive prices - possibly (as I suspect) to undercut Iranian almonds.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Apr 2019 23:00

IMF folds package with more stringent conditions

ISLAMABAD: The IMF has folded its bailout package with more stringent conditions as Islamabad have been conveyed to ensure guarantee from China that it will get rollover of $5 to $7 billion debt on account of deposits and commercial loans in order to meet its financing requirements during the programme period.

The IMF has put the condition to bridge financing gap through “unidentified” avenues as Islamabad got deposits from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the range of $7 billion so far in the ongoing financial year. The commercial lending from Chinese banks alone amounted to $5 to $5.5 billion.

With securing of IMF programme, it is assumed that the traditional lenders like World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and others as well as international capital market funding would start pouring in but if rollover on account of deposits and commercial loans could not be arranged, the financing gap could not be filled.

“The IMF is going to provide funding of $6 to $8 billion under the possible package for three-year period,” said the official. Although, the rollover of deposits is done in routine but it involves hectic procedure as the chief executive of the country requires sending official written request to get this facility of rollover for another year.

“However, it will be toughest condition to get rollover on account of commercial loans but some officials say that Islamabad might offer Chinese banks to get 1 or 2 percent additional markup to rollover the due amount for next 2 to 3 years period. Without seeking rollover on deposits and commercial loans from friendly countries, Pakistan’s financing requirements under the possible bailout package from the IMF cannot be bridged,” top official confirmed to The News here on Wednesday.

When contacted one top official of Finance Division said that the deposits and commercial loans were rolled over in this ongoing financial year and it would be done in coming financial year as well.

The IMF had sought details of Chinese loans on the name of ensuring transparency. Three US Congressmen had recently written letter to US Secretary Treasury to oppose Pakistan’s move for getting IMF loan on the pretext that Islamabad might use this money to pay back CPEC liabilities to China.

Islamabad’s authorities claimed that this issue was settled when the IMF mission visited last time in November 2018 as they had given extensive briefings regarding all loans obtained from China.

“The sharing of loans from China with regard to its agreement and attached details is still pending issue with the IMF because under confidentiality clause its details cannot be shared with anyone,” said official sources and added that the debt sustainability analysis requirement done by the IMF did not mean that they could intervene in sovereignty of the state.

Pakistani and Chinese authorities took stance that Beijing had so far provided $19 billion for execution of projects under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) out of which $13 billion was given to companies through IPP mode for energy sector and remaining $6 billion was given in shape of government to government loans (G to G) for total 22 projects. Pakistan will not require to pay any penny on account of G to G loans over the next 5 years period. However, the outflows in shape of profits and dividends would start in case of those projects that were completed and became operational.

Earlier, Finance Secretary Younas Dagha told journalists outside the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance meeting held here at FBR headquarters that the IMF mission would visit Pakistan by end of April 2019 and dates would be worked out soon.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Apr 2019 23:17

Budget deficit jumps to Rs1.6tr in Jul-Mar FY19 - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The budget deficit touched Rs1.6 trillion or 4.2% of the size of national economy in first nine months of the current fiscal year as the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government failed to enhance revenues to a point where it could meet growing defence and debt spending.
The deteriorating fiscal position will weaken Pakistan’s case before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that is sending a mission to Islamabad on April 29. Both the sides are set to open staff-level talks for a bailout package from coming Monday, said sources in the finance ministry. New IMF mission chief Ernesto Rigo will lead the mission
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Apr 2019 16:37

Pakistan's revenue black hole widens to Rs5 trillion - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s revenue black hole, which three years ago was Rs3.3 trillion, has further widened to Rs5 trillion or 26 percent (pc) of the size of its economy, according to a new document that the World Bank has prepared to approve a $400 million loan for tax reforms.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 26 Apr 2019 19:17

Dollar se gire, Khajoor se atke

Spiralling prices sour dates in Pakistan

Traders complained that soaring prices, mainly because of a record devaluation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar, has hit their business.

"There has been an average 50 per cent increase in date prices due to the recent devaluation [of the rupee] which has affected our sales," Haroon said.

"The Irani date, which used to sell at Rs120 to Rs140 [$1] per kilogram a couple of months ago, is now being sold at Rs320 ($2.5) per kg. This has understandably reduced the buying power of consumers," he observed.


Pakistan is the world’s fifth-largest date producer in the world, contributing 11 per cent to the total global production. Khairpur district is one of the largest date-cultivating districts in the world.

According to Mohammad Bashir Arain, chairman of the Date Merchant Association Khairpur, around 130 varieties are grown in Pakistan.

India annually buys 400,000 metric tons of dried dates — commonly known as Chohara — from Pakistan, mainly from Khairpur district.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Apr 2019 19:25

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,067.33 - Pt. Change : +336.47 - % Change : +0.87%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,06,604.66 - $ 1 / 70.3225

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,178.26 Billion

P S E

Index Current : 37,130.63 - Pt. Change : + 334.60 : % Change : 0.91%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,528,636,203,290 - $ 1 / 142.00

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 53.02

B S E : K S E : : 41.08 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 26 Apr 2019 20:32



Just check the answer of the lady on why the businessmen are not willing to pay taxes: Businessmen expect something in return like good policies to further their business if they pay taxes. It is as if they do not owe it to the country to pay tax but are doing a favor by doing so. :lol:

The economist mentions that Pakistan has stopped generating wealth/income. The only place where wealth is being created is Stock and Property market and hence has become a Casino economy. He further says Pakistan needs to reduce its defense expenditure. Fat chance of that happening. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 26 Apr 2019 23:52


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Apr 2019 04:55

Pakistan to begin talks with IMF from Apr 29 - Our Correspondent

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will begin discussing the aid package for Islamabad from April 29, reported Express News.

The IMF mission, headed by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, will reach Pakistan on April 29 and will be in the country till May 7. The mission will also visit various institutions during their time in the country.

Govt to keep details of $3.7b loan under wraps

According to the sources, the Ministry of Finance issued a notification to all relevant ministries and institutions and sought data from concerned ministries, including the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Nine-month economic data is also being compiled for discussion with the IMF mission.

Sources say IMF is asking Pakistan to increase the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 13.2 per cent, while the government has assured an increase by 12.7 per cent.

During negotiations with the IMF, there is also expected to be detailed discussion on the revenue framework. The recommendation to impose Rs729 billion tax in the budget is under consideration.

Sources added that a discussion over recommendations and budget strategy papers for the federal budget will also be held with the IMF review mission. Taxes equivalent to 1.4% of the GDP are likely to be imposed in the next budget. Relief in taxes for the import and manufacturing sector will also be granted.

There are recommendations to impose Rs634 billion for inland revenue, Rs95 billion in lieu of customers duty, Rs334 billion in lieu of income tax, Rs150 billion in lieu of sales tax and Rs150 billion in lieu of Federal Excise Duty in the budget.

‘Agreement in principle’ reached with IMF over bailout package: minister

Sources told Express News that the review mission will be informed about the progress of increasing the rate of electricity, the value of rupee, tax revenues on mobile phones, additional revenue, the amnesty scheme and the terms of loan adjustment. However, the biggest challenge will be to inform IMF about the loans taken from China.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Apr 2019 00:11

Pakistan to pay back $3 bn to IMF over next three years – Mehtab Haider

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will have to pay back around $3 billion to the IMF over next three years starting from upcoming financial year 2019-20 so with possible size of $6 billion bailout package, half of the amount will go back to the Fund on account of previous outstanding loans and liabilities, The News has learnt.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 04:17

IMF team arrives today for talks on bailout package

IMFA team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to arrive in Pakistan on Monday (today) to hold technical-level talks on a three-year bailout package.

The IMF mission, headed by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, will reach on April 29 and will stay in the country till May 7. The mission will also visit various institutions during their stay in the country.

Pakistani side for negotiations with the IMF will be led by Adviser to PM on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.

The successful conclusion of the talks will translate into a Federal Budget 2019-20 envisaging additional resource mobilisation of close to Rs 500 billion or around 1.2% of the GDP under a three-year fiscal adjustment and stabilisation programme.

Authorities have already finalised the government’s strategy to deliver on Medium-Term Economic Framework 2019-23 (MTEF) targets to be finalised by the IMF.

The talks are taking place at a time the IMF had early this month forecast Pakistan’s fiscal deficit continuously elevated at close to 8% and deteriorating debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 86% over the next five years.

The two sides have been engaged since August last year but talks were suspended in November when they could not reach agreement on economic adjustment plan as the IMF wanted upfront steep policy actions to reduce fiscal deficit through higher taxes and increase in gas and electricity prices and allow a market based exchange rate.

The government was, however, reluctant to take severe economic decisions of political nature at the earliest even though it increased electricity and gas prices and devalued currency significantly and wanted to stagger the burden on the people in the coming budget.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Atmavik » 29 Apr 2019 06:35

At this rate Baki wish of becoming Arab will come true. They just need to wait till spring

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sum » 29 Apr 2019 11:50

^^ Only in TSP would a bailout and securing a mega loan ( which needs to be paid back after b@ll$ of aam-aadmi are squeezed) is something to be celebrated all over the country!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 29 Apr 2019 12:12

This pdf version: by Dr. Hafeez Pasha. Growth and Inequality in Pakistan. Has lots of good authentic numbers related to Population and GDP.
https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros ... /14113.pdf

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Parasu » 29 Apr 2019 15:49

https://www.brecorder.com/2019/04/29/49 ... ery-tough/
IMF programme: Could be very tough
This government is not left with many options in the fiscal exemptions and expenditure to lure IMF for additional revenue generation. In the previous few programmes, governments extracted maximum juice. Another way to put it is that the previous finance czars had used their opportunities to convince the IMF on vague plans.
Now the Fund appears to be in no mood to listen on intangibles. The new finance minster does not subscribe to the political philosophy of Imran, and he could care less on public outcry as a result of tough measures.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Paul » 29 Apr 2019 15:57

Putin refused to meet Ilm Dimmy

Marvi Sirmed

Verified account

@marvisirmed
3h3 hours ago
More
Before the PM went to China, @ForeignOfficePk had said that PM shall have several meetings with heads of govt/state. Out of 37 heads, PM has only met two: Ethiopia & Tajikistan in addition to Chinese PM & Pres. Now Putin refuses to meet. Terrible setback. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1961497/1- ... ssion=true

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 29 Apr 2019 16:08

I wonder how Ethiopia and Tajikistan leaders reacted when Dimran put forth the begging bowl?

Im da dumb is done for... Ghafool is busy pushing the merits of the presidential form of govt..

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 17:43

menon s wrote:This pdf version: by Dr. Hafeez Pasha. Growth and Inequality in Pakistan. Has lots of good authentic numbers related to Population and GDP.
https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros ... /14113.pdf
menon Ji:
My Dear Sir -That is "Old Hat"

The Latest GDP as follows :

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) is :

GDP (Current Market Price) is US$ 277.206 Billion @US$ last day weighted avg. exchange rate of 138.8

What will the GDP be when the Exchange Rate reaches T. Rs. 150 or 180 to the US Dollar? Any Guesses? :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 29 Apr 2019 18:08

Peregrine wrote:menon Ji:
My Dear Sir -That is "Old Hat"

The Latest GDP as follows :

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) is :

GDP (Current Market Price) is US$ 277.206 Billion @US$ last day weighted avg. exchange rate of 138.8

What will the GDP be when the Exchange Rate reaches T. Rs. 150 or 180 to the US Dollar? Any Guesses? :rotfl:

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Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) is : $100 billion??

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 18:28

Peregrine wrote:menon Ji:
My Dear Sir -That is "Old Hat"

The Latest GDP as follows :

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) is :

GDP (Current Market Price) is US$ 277.206 Billion @US$ last day weighted avg. exchange rate of 138.8

What will the GDP be when the Exchange Rate reaches T. Rs. 150 or 180 to the US Dollar? Any Guesses? :rotfl:

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sudhan wrote:
Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) is : $100 billion??
sudhan Ji :

These Figure are for 31-12-2018

Such Much seems to be a little low. Me thinking by the Grace of the Most Magnanimous, Most Magnificent, Most Munificent All Mighty Allah it could might be more in March 2019 and then much more in June 2019! Let us wait with bated breath in anticipation of some big figures. - Mera Mun Mangay More.

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Last edited by Peregrine on 29 Apr 2019 18:56, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 29 Apr 2019 18:35

There is late realization in Imran the Charsi camp that the economic situation is beyond not only redemption but also just day to day management. Imran/Army had over estimated Pakistan's importance to the Saudis and Chinese and are being administered jhapads into facing stark reality.

The Afghanistan imbroglio of US is the only remaining lever pakis have, but with Trump administration playing tough the pakis are realizing their options are all exhausted and they have two choices only: accept that they are a bit player even with the atim bumb and thus have a chance of being a normal "south asian" nation like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka or else start living the Sudan/North Korea way.

As a last remaining resort Pakistan is fast moving to a stage where it will try to exercise/leverage its global nuisance value. Also, the presidential style of governance option that Army wants to impose will only lead to Sindh and Baluchistan getting further marginalised and more AOA moments.

Either way it means i have to buy packets of popcorn and also get a new coffee machine. :)

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 18:54

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,067.33 - Pt. Change : +336.47 - % Change : +0.87

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,08,828.49 – US $ 1 / 70.3225

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,176.95 Billion

P S E

Index Current : 37026.27 - Pt. Change : -104.36 - % Change : -0.28%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,522,654,709,213 – US $ 1 / 142.30

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 52.65 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 41.35 : 1


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Last edited by Peregrine on 29 Apr 2019 20:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 19:10

Political reasons behind A sad’s ouster - Mubarak Zeb Khan
ISLAMABAD: A number of officials in the finance ministry and some top members of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) believe that reasons behind the removal of A sad Umar as finance minister were “political” rather than economic policies.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 29 Apr 2019 19:27

Peregrine wrote:B S E : P S E : : 31.35 : 1[/b]

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Should that ratio be not 41.35?

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 20:08

Peregrine wrote:B S E : P S E : : 31.35 : 1

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saip wrote:Should that ratio be not 41.35?
saip Ji:
Sorry Sir. Mistook took place! Have corrected it.

Many Thanks.

BTW : Market Cap. of RIL is Twice the Market Cap. of PSE

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 29 Apr 2019 22:12

Take that you Kuffar, Pakistan has found a way to beat the Oil Price hike and inflation. Donkey Carts for the travelling public in La(w)hore.


Comments of the lady travelling by the Donkey Cart: Bahot Sukun Hai. :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Apr 2019 23:18

Petrol price likely to go up by Rs14.37 for May - News Desk
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has recommended increasing oil prices by as much as Rs14.37 for the month of May.
In a summary moved to the Petroleum Division on Monday, the Ogra proposed that the price of high speed diesel (HSD) be raised by Rs4.89 per litre and petrol price be hiked by Rs14.37 per litre for the next month.
The regulator has also requested an increase in prices of kerosene oil of Rs7.46 per litre while a rise of Rs6.40 per litre has been recommended for light diesel oil (LDO).
If the government accepts this recommendation, then diesel prices would inflate to Rs122.32 per litre, petrol to 113.26 per litre, LDO to Rs86.94 per litre and kerosene oil would go up to Rs96.77 per litre.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Apr 2019 23:59

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/24 ... tions.aspx
"Think about how you felt yesterday. Did you smile or laugh a lot? Did you learn or do something interesting? Were you angry? Sad? Gallup asked people in more than 140 countries these same questions in 2018 to find out how they are feeling.

Use this interactive to see how you and your country compare with the rest of the planet on 10 positive and negative experiences."

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mmasand » 30 Apr 2019 00:42

Moved to Terrorists thread.
Last edited by mmasand on 30 Apr 2019 00:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 30 Apr 2019 00:48

mmasand wrote:Jr Bhutto just took on the Military in his presser about an hour back. This is BIG, Benazir didn't stand up to Mush when he ousted Mian Saheb.

Seems the Jarnails are preparing for an overhaul of the 18th amendment and want a presidential system to drive their policy and stay relevant. I can't fathom if ADGPI or IAF MCC or Navy Spokesperson held a press conference and started lecturing on ministries and their responsibilities and political interference by warning Manzoor Pashteen.

I see this as a sign of desperation by Bajwa and co to get a grip before hell breaks loose when Musharraf returns in a couple of days.


the last guy that tried it in India was sacked publicly by george fernandes as RM.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Ardeshir » 30 Apr 2019 09:26

More rona dhona

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 30 Apr 2019 13:10

chetak wrote:
the last guy that tried it in India was sacked publicly by george fernandes as RM.


Sorry for the OT, I am curious, who was it that got sacked?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 30 Apr 2019 13:15

Vishnu Bhagwat.....

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 30 Apr 2019 13:51

Parasu wrote:https://www.brecorder.com/2019/04/29/493242/imf-programme-could-be-very-tough/
IMF programme: Could be very tough
This government is not left with many options in the fiscal exemptions and expenditure to lure IMF for additional revenue generation. In the previous few programmes, governments extracted maximum juice. Another way to put it is that the previous finance czars had used their opportunities to convince the IMF on vague plans.
Now the Fund appears to be in no mood to listen on intangibles. The new finance minster does not subscribe to the political philosophy of Imran, and he could care less on public outcry as a result of tough measures.


More on this from another source (refer bolded part):

Pakistan was last year expected to sign up for the bailout program, but Pakistani officials complained that the conditions attached to the proposed IMF loans could hurt the country's economic growth.

The IMF demands full disclosure of all financial cooperation between Pakistan and China, which would include infrastructure development assistance, nuclear power plants, joint manufacturing of warplanes, and procurement of submarines.

The lender also wants details of more than $6.5 billion of commercial loans Pakistan has received from China in the past 2 1/2 years.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Yagnasri » 30 Apr 2019 16:50

menon s wrote:Please add if you come across some.


You missed Donkey export mafia and bride sale mafia. :mrgreen:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 30 Apr 2019 17:52

Yagnasri wrote:
menon s wrote:Please add if you come across some.


You missed Donkey export mafia and bride sale mafia. :mrgreen:


how dare you. :shock:

they are not mafias, they are legitimate paki startups as well as some of the most rapidly growing legitimate businesses.

donkey and bride futures are their next big innovations.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 30 Apr 2019 18:29

Pakistan among the top countries in the world with big 'Military burden'

(Pliss to fix link when you click)

The Sipri report ranked Pakistan among the top 10 countries with the highest "military burden" — described as a "state’s military expenditure as a share of GDP".


According to the report, India's military spending, which rose by 3.1pc between 2017-18, was "largely motivated by tensions and rivalry with Pakistan and China".

Despite the increase from last year, India's military burden was the lowest since the 1960s and made up for 2.4pc of its GDP.


No == here :((

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 30 Apr 2019 19:07

sudhan wrote:Pakistan among the top countries in the world with big 'Military burden'

(Pliss to fix link when you click)

The Sipri report ranked Pakistan among the top 10 countries with the highest "military burden" — described as a "state’s military expenditure as a share of GDP".


According to the report, India's military spending, which rose by 3.1pc between 2017-18, was "largely motivated by tensions and rivalry with Pakistan and China".

Despite the increase from last year, India's military burden was the lowest since the 1960s and made up for 2.4pc of its GDP.


No == here :((


Actually their military burden is at least 2x as much as their pensions and other items are cleverly obfuscated under civilian heads.


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