Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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nachiket
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nachiket » 15 Oct 2019 22:13

sanjaykumar wrote:The proverbial picture says the thousand words.

Sanjaykumar saab, the NSE building in Mumbai looks even better than the much older BSE building.

Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 16 Oct 2019 00:19

https://dailytimes.com.pk/483981/fatf-s ... -governor/
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 594339.cms
Diametrically opposed reporting
Pakis claiming 36 of the 40 conditions met!!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 16 Oct 2019 01:01

Rsatchi wrote:https://dailytimes.com.pk/483981/fatf-satisfied-with-pakistans-risk-assessment-study-against-money-laundering-governor/
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 594339.cms
Diametrically opposed reporting
Pakis claiming 36 of the 40 conditions met!!!


There is no " news" for some channels .. they report views presenting as " news" ..they are views channels , Islamic view channels. Beebeecee is one

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 16 Oct 2019 17:30

Pakistan to remain in FATF's 'Grey List' till February 2020: Per Porki Reports.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has decided, in principle, to keep Pakistan in its Grey List till February 2020, directing Islamabad to take extra measures for complete elimination of terror financing and money laundering, according to media reports on Wednesday.

The FATF is an inter-governmental body established in 1989 to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the
integrity of the international financial system. In a meeting in Paris on Tuesday, the FATF reviewed the measures that Pakistan has already taken to control money laundering and terror financing, reported Dawn News.

The Paris-based task force has urged Pakistan to take extra measures for complete elimination of terror financing, it quoted Aaj TV. The FATF will take a final decision on Pakistan's position in February 2020.

A formal announcement about the interim developments will be made on Friday, which is the last day of the FATF's ongoing session, the report said.

However, Pakistan's finance ministry spokesperson Omar Hameed Khan rejected the reports of the country remaining in the Grey List, saying "it is not true and nothing before October 18 (can be confirmed)".

The FATF has decided to give respite of four months to Pakistan to help it implement the remaining recommendations of the task force, Aaj TV reported.

Earlier at the FATF meeting in Paris, Pakistan's minister for economic affairs Hammad Azhar had explained his country's positive performance in 20 of the 27 parameters to check terror financing. China, Turkey and Malaysia "appreciated" the steps taken by Pakistan, Dawn News reported. The support of at least three countries is required not to blacklist any country.

At the Tuesday meeting, India recommended the blacklisting of Pakistan citing Islamabad permitting Hafiz Saeed to withdraw funds from his frozen accounts, the report said.

The meeting is being attended by representatives from 205 countries, the IMF, the UN, the World Bank and other organisations.Concerns were also raised on the tax amnesty scheme offered in Pakistan, the report added.

Pakistan was placed on the Grey List by the Paris-based watchdog in June last year and was given a plan of action to complete it by October 2019, or face the risk of being placed on the black list with Iran and North Korea.

If Pakistan continues in the 'Grey List', it would be very difficult for the country to get financial aid from the IMF, the World Bank and the European Union, making its financial condition more precarious.

Islamabad is obligated to report its performance to the group every three months.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Oct 2019 21:25

Drop in imports sparks industrial slowdown fears in Pakistan - Our Correspondent
ISLAMABAD: Though the government is boasting of slashing the trade deficit, a decline in the import of raw material has sparked fears of a slowdown in industrial production in coming months.
“I don’t have exact figures, but imports of a lot of raw material are coming down, which makes me a little bit worried,” remarked Adviser to Prime Minister on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood while responding to a question at a news conference on Tuesday.
He acknowledged that the reduction in industrial raw material import was not a good thing for the national economy. Several factors were behind the low imports, especially the reduction in auto sector’s production levels, he said.
The adviser listed three main causes which included rupee depreciation, higher interest cost and consumer resistance. “Consumers are not taking interest in different goods due to higher prices; it can happen anywhere in the world,” he said.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Oct 2019 22:02

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,598.99 - Pt. Change : +92.90 - % Change : +0.24

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,46,31,203.82 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.5250

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2045.61 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,281.09 – Change : 197.56 - % Change : 0.58% - High : 34,434.06 – Low : 34,083.53

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,751,073,124,583 - $ 1 / T R = 156.20

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.22 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 47.33 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Oct 2019 22:13

Growth to slow down to 2.4pc in 2020: IMF - Khaleeq Kiani
WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday estimated that Pakistan’s economy would slow down to 2.4 per cent in 2020 and pick up quickly after that as stabilisation measures bear result.
Speaking at a news conference at the launch of the World Economic Outlook 2019, IMF’s economist Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrtti said Pakistani authorities remained steadfast on fiscal adjustment and the country was now picking up stability as a result. He was responding to a question as to how the renewed tension on Kashmir could impact growth prospects in India and Pakistan, put to Gita Gopinath, the IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Oct 2019 22:21

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Oct 2019 17:58

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,052.06 - Pt. Change : +453.07 - % Change : +1.17

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,90,535.00 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.2325

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,077.38 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,898.56 – Change : -382.53 - % Change : -1.13% - High : 34,361.45 – Low : 33,836.97

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,680,724,829,029 - $ 1 / T R = 156.2504

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.76 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.58 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Oct 2019 18:24

Pakistan's debt to rise to over 78% of GDP: IMF - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: A new report, issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday, has said Pakistan’s public debt may surge this year to 78.6% of the total size of its economy, which is not only higher than the previous year but also in violation of an act of the parliament.

The Global Financial Stability Report further said the budget deficit -gap between expenditures and revenues, would remain at 7.4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is also slightly higher than the official target set by the Ministry of Finance.

The higher budget deficit and public debt projections would mean that over 60% of the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) taxes would be consumed in servicing the debt, which grew at an alarming rate in the last fiscal year 2018-19.

Against 76.7% public debt in the last fiscal year, the public debt may surge to 78.6% of the GDP by end of current fiscal year 2019-20. The projected level of public debt was slightly higher than the target set by the Ministry of Finance at the time of the budget. The 78.6% public debt will be equal to Rs34.6 trillion.

According to the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act of 2005, the public debt has to be lower than 60% of the GDP or Rs26.4 trillion. This means, the public debt will be at least Rs8.2 trillion higher than the limit set in the FRDL Act.

The IMF debt projections are lower than the forecasts given by the World Bank (WB) in its latest report, South Asian Economic Focus Fall 2019. The WB has said the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain high at 82.9% of the GDP in this fiscal year.

The WB report noted that even in the next fiscal year, the public debt to GDP ratio would remain at 80.8%, increasing Pakistan’s exposure to debt-related shocks. The key reasons behind growing public debt were low revenues, higher debt and defence spending and currency devaluation.

The Global Financial Stability Report projected the budget deficit at 7.4% of the GDP, which is 0.2% higher than the Ministry of Finance target. But the IMF report showed that the government will achieve its target of primary deficit reduction – total expenditures minus interest payments.

The report has shown the primary deficit at 0.5% of the GDP at the end of this fiscal year.

However, independent economists say Pakistan cannot achieve the primary deficit target, which in one year has to be brought down from 3.4% of the GDP to 0.6% of the GDP. They said it has never happened in the history of Pakistan that the primary deficit is reduced by 2.8% of the GDP in a single year.

The new report has projected the general government revenues at 16.3% of the GDP for this fiscal year, which are higher by 3.5% of the GDP or Rs1.6 trillion over the last year.

At a time when the economic growth rate was sinking every year it will be difficult task to collect that much additional amount in tax and non-tax revenues in a single year.

But on last Saturday, Adviser to PM on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh sounded upbeat and said the government would achieve its overall fiscal targets on back of significant increase in non-tax revenues.

Against the budgeted target of Rs1.2 trillion, Shaikh hoped to collect Rs1.6 trillion in non-tax revenues in this fiscal year. The federal budget deficit that had been recorded at Rs738 billion or 1.9% of GDP in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, was brought down to Rs476 billion or 1.1% of GDP, said Shaikh.

One of the challenging tasks for the government is to collect Rs5.5 trillion in the FBR’s revenues that require 44% growth rate. And in private conversations, no government officials seems confident enough to claim that the government will be able to collect Rs5.5 trillion tax collection target.

During the first quarter, the FBR pooled Rs958 billion with an annual growth rate of 15% despite blocking exporters’ refunds and taking advances from the large firms.

The FBR also faces resistance from the traders’ associations that have so far refused to comply with the tax laws. The traders on Wednesday gave two-day shutter down strike call for October 29 and 30.

The All Pakistan Anjman-e-Tajran President Ajmal Baloch urged the IMF team to meet with the representatives of the traders.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Oct 2019 18:39

Pakistan given final lifeline, to remain in FATF grey list till February 2020 - Dawn.com
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday formally announced that Pakistan will remain on its grey list for the next four months, handing it a final lifeline after acknowledging recent improvements.
The task force directed Islamabad to take more measures for complete elimination of terror financing and money laundering while expressing serious concerns over the lack of progress in addressing terror financing risks.
“The FATF strongly urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its full action plan by February 2020,” it said in its statement. “Otherwise, should significant and sustainable progress not be made across the full range of its action plan by the next Plenary, the FATF will take action.”
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Oct 2019 19:02

Trade war with US: China's GDP growth sinks to 6% in 3rd quarter, lowest in 27 years – Agencies
- Chinese economy expanded 6.0% in July-September, compared with 6.2% in the second quarter.

- It marks the worst quarterly figure since 1992.

- Chinese trade has suffered from US tariff hikes.
BEIJING: China's economy grew at the slowest rate in 27 years in the third quarter, official figures showed on Friday, as the country grapples with a protracted trade war with the US and slowing domestic demand.
Gross domestic Product (GDP) figures showed that the Chinese economy expanded 6.0 per cent in July-September, compared with 6.2 per cent in the second quarter.
It marks the worst quarterly figure since 1992, although still within Beijing's target range of 6.0-6.5 per cent for the whole year
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Oct 2019 19:10

Pakistan given final lifeline, to remain in FATF grey list till February 2020 - Dawn.com - Reuters
The Finan­cial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday formally announced that Pakistan will remain on its grey list for the next four months, handing it a final lifeline after acknowledging recent improvements.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Thakur_B » 18 Oct 2019 19:50

Noob Pooch , are there any measures that Bakis can implement within next 4 months to keep away blacklisted status?

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Oct 2019 20:31

Thakur_B wrote:Noob Pooch , are there any measures that Bakis can implement within next 4 months to keep away blacklisted status?
Thakur B Ji :

As things stand I doubt it. However, Allah knows best! :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Oct 2019 20:35

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,298.38 : - Pt. Change : +246.32 - % Change : +0.63

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,57,388.52 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.1975

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,100.83 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,870.15 – Change : -28.41 - % Change -0.08% - High : 34,096.39 – Low :33,667.80

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,639.233,768,183 - $ 1 / T R = 156.1245

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.53 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.40 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gagan » 18 Oct 2019 22:43

Paqistan can take tons of measures to come out of the FATF blacklist, its easy to do.
But the main question is, is their Fauj willing to do it?

The answer is a big NO
The Paq Fauj will not give up the stranglehold on that country
Until this stranglehold is there, Paqistan will go from bad to worse, until it becomes like Somalia or Rawanda, and then it will break apart and its own army will scoot for cover from the abduls and jihadi groups.

They have too much echendee built into the current situation - suits India perfectly BTW.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 18 Oct 2019 22:47

Gagan wrote:Paqistan can take tons of measures to come out of the FATF blacklist, its easy to do.
But the main question is, is their Fauj willing to do it?

The answer is a big NO
The Paq Fauj will not give up the stranglehold on that country
Until this stranglehold is there, Paqistan will go from bad to worse, until it becomes like Somalia or Rawanda, and then it will break apart and its own army will scoot for cover from the abduls and jihadi groups.

They have too much echendee built into the current situation - suits India perfectly BTW.


Pretty much sums up my view.
Until the next FATF, we can always sanction Malaysia & Turkey and start pushing back against China, so that they pay an increasing price for their support to Pak. I wonder why we cant have an equivalent of CAATSA to counter organisations doing business in POK or with the Pak army /Fauji foundation etc

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gagan » 18 Oct 2019 22:50

Paquistan's FATF greylist is quite an ideal situation as far as India is concerned
1. It is like liquid oxygen. The liquid won't let them live, the oxygen won't let them die. Plus the sword of the Black List always hangs on their head or on their musharraf (which ever way one wants to look at this)
2. High inflation and low GDP growth will ultimately kill them
3. The Jihad luuving days of the Paq Fauj are now over. Very soon they are looking at severely shrinking defense budgets.

Paq Fauj can't even maintain their Main Battle Tanks ! That's how bad things are. They can't fight a real war, they can only depend on their Jihadi groups - which is a bad choice to make when they are economically stressed and under the FATF eye.
Soon their fauj will be like a police force - incapable of fighting outside wars, and only good for intimidation within, doing coups, usurping domestic resources etc. Their fauj is already doing this now, but this is only going to further increase.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby gpurewal » 18 Oct 2019 22:59

Gagan wrote:Paqistan can take tons of measures to come out of the FATF blacklist, its easy to do.

Until this stranglehold is there, Paqistan will go from bad to worse, until it becomes like Somalia or Rawanda, and then it will break apart and its own army will scoot for cover from the abduls and jihadi groups.


I feel feel excitement and dread at the same time from your predictions. Bakistan is a crumbling house, and seeing it collapse would be dream come true. However, what dreads me is the situation regarding their nuclear weapons. India and other like minded nations need to go in and take those weapons/destroy them before they fall into the hands of the Jihadi's. I apologize if I have pushed this thread into a tangent.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 19 Oct 2019 02:01

gpurewal wrote:
Gagan wrote:Paqistan can take tons of measures to come out of the FATF blacklist, its easy to do.

Until this stranglehold is there, Paqistan will go from bad to worse, until it becomes like Somalia or Rawanda, and then it will break apart and its own army will scoot for cover from the abduls and jihadi groups.


I feel feel excitement and dread at the same time from your predictions. Bakistan is a crumbling house, and seeing it collapse would be dream come true. However, what dreads me is the situation regarding their nuclear weapons. India and other like minded nations need to go in and take those weapons/destroy them before they fall into the hands of the Jihadi's. I apologize if I have pushed this thread into a tangent.


Don't. This is exactly what they want you (and the rest of the world) to feel, and the purpose of their nuclear blackmail. As uneven Cohen said they are adept at negotiating with a gun to their own head, but the world if finally beginning to call their bluff on that.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rony » 19 Oct 2019 07:46

The Middle-Class Person Is Dying.’ Pakistan’s Tax Push Is Deflating Its Leader’s Political Base.

When Mr. Khan became prime minister in August 2018, he found he had inherited runaway trade and budget deficits and fast depleting foreign currency reserves. He put the brakes on the economy and then turned reluctantly in May to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout—Pakistan’s 22nd IMF program—which demanded further steps to stifle demand.

Mr. Khan’s government says it has saved Pakistan from the danger of defaulting on foreign debts accrued before it came into power, and that its reforms will break Pakistan out of an endless boom-and-bust cycle.

The plan is to replace unsustainable growth based on borrowing and imports with an economy driven by exports and an expanded tax base that can create jobs and fund a welfare state.

Between the two phases has come a lot of economic pain, however.

Interest rates have been doubled to over 13%—among the highest in Asia—and the rupee has slumped. Inflation has almost tripled from the year before Mr. Khan took office, to 11%, and economic growth has more than halved to 2.4%. Experts question whether there is a viable strategy to get the economy motoring again.

Mr. Khan is trying to accomplish what no Pakistani government, military or civilian, has pulled off: getting people to pay tax. Just 1% of the country’s population of 208 million pays income tax.

Smaller retailers plan to go on strike this month unless talks with authorities lead to a softening of government demands that they begin to pay income tax and sales tax, collect withholding tax and document their suppliers. Businesses said they feared being blackmailed by inspectors if they enter the tax net, despite government assurances it is working to end graft in the notoriously corrupt tax system.

Between January and September this year, food inflation in urban areas shot to 15% from 3%. Car sales were down 39% in the first quarter of the current financial year, which began in July, while motorcycle sales fell 17%.

Former Finance Minister Hafiz Pasha, an economist, estimates that by the end of Mr. Khan’s second year, two million workers will have lost their jobs and up to eight million people will be pushed into poverty.

“You have the makings of an Arab Spring in this country,” said Mr. Pasha, referring to the popular uprisings in Arab nations starting in 2011. “This is a bomb waiting to explode.”

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 19 Oct 2019 08:32

Thakur_B wrote:Noob Pooch , are there any measures that Bakis can implement within next 4 months to keep away blacklisted status?


They can somehow get FATF involved in Afghanistan or Iran and then blackmail FATF that Pakistan won't provide logistics unless FATF removes it from grey list.

They can shelter ISIS chief in pindi and then offer to hunt down ISIS chief in exchange of removing Pakistan from FATF blacklist.

They can threaten they'll take money from China instead if FATF does not give them money.

They can threaten to refuse cooperation next time some Pakistani displays Pakistaniyat on a FATF building unless they get removed from FATF greylist.

They can kill Alqaeda no 2 when FATF chief visits.

Possibilities are endless.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 19 Oct 2019 08:59

What are these guys complaining about,Paki Ruppee has risen to 155 against USD from 163. That's a good recovery, their economy is doing very well.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 19 Oct 2019 11:11

Anujan wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:Noob Pooch , are there any measures that Bakis can implement within next 4 months to keep away blacklisted status?


They can somehow get FATF involved in Afghanistan or Iran and then blackmail FATF that Pakistan won't provide logistics unless FATF removes it from grey list.

They can shelter ISIS chief in pindi and then offer to hunt down ISIS chief in exchange of removing Pakistan from FATF blacklist.

They can threaten they'll take money from China instead if FATF does not give them money.

They can threaten to refuse cooperation next time some Pakistani displays Pakistaniyat on a FATF building unless they get removed from FATF greylist.

They can kill Alqaeda no 2 when FATF chief visits.

Possibilities are endless.


They have done all these things already. As Gagan says in the earlier post, being on the gray/ dark gray suite us fine - provided we use the interim 4 months to put pressure on Turkey/Malaysia through economic measures. Hopefully one of them will reconsider.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 19 Oct 2019 20:17

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/worl ... tions.html
Pakistan Avoids Terrorism Blacklist and Sanctions
The country could be blacklisted in February if it does not make progress clamping down on terrorism financing, money laundering.
By Salman Masood and Maria Abi-Habib
Oct. 18, 2019

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan escaped blacklist status and international sanctions from the world’s top antiterrorism monitoring group on Friday, but received a harsh rebuke from the body for failing to adequately crack down on terrorism financing and money laundering.
The monitoring group, the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force, met on Friday and said Pakistan would remain on a gray list, signaling its failure to fully comply with a 27-point action plan the watchdog gave it earlier this year.
But Pakistan could still be blacklisted in February when the watchdog next meets. The country was placed on the task force’s gray list last year, which has made it more expensive for the government to raise money on the international bond market at a time when Pakistan’s debt crisis is weighing heavily on the economy.
Pakistani government officials portrayed the country’s exclusion from the blacklist as an acknowledgment of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s seriousness to move against militant groups. Some of those groups have long been believed to have been nurtured by the Pakistani security forces as tools to achieve the country’s foreign policy objectives, to counter India and to maintain its influence in Afghanistan. The military denies those accusations.
In a statement the Financial Action Task Force expressed “serious concerns” about what it called the lack of progress Pakistan had shown countering terrorism financing and money laundering.
“The F.A.T.F. strongly urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its full action plan by February 2020. Otherwise, should significant and sustainable progress not be made across the full range of its action plan by the next Plenary, the F.A.T.F. will take action,” the statement read.
Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance said it was committed to “fully implement” the watchdog’s action plan.
Mr. Khan and the country’s powerful army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, have insisted in recent months that the country has changed its stance on militant networks and now views them as more of a liability than a useful strategic tool.
One Western diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss deliberations before the task force’s decision, said that one factor helping Pakistan evade sanctions was the continuing effort by the United States to reach a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban. Pakistani cooperation is seen as crucial to that process.
......
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 20 Oct 2019 00:52

https://youtu.be/j-n_yNuGLHs
Listen to the two sensible doctors who trying desperately to make the 'unwashed' that they are staring down the barrel.
Interesting bit: Napak's promised IMF that they will be off the 'Grey List' in Oct 2019 but that hasn't happened and they have to go IMF what are they going to do???

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 20 Oct 2019 02:00

Rsatchi wrote:https://youtu.be/j-n_yNuGLHs
Listen to the two sensible doctors who trying desperately to make the 'unwashed' that they are staring down the barrel.
Interesting bit: Napak's promised IMF that they will be off the 'Grey List' in Oct 2019 but that hasn't happened and they have to go IMF what are they going to do???

Watch this and enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n3rj-FMN9E
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 20 Oct 2019 13:45

g.sarkar wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:https://youtu.be/j-n_yNuGLHs
Listen to the two sensible doctors who trying desperately to make the 'unwashed' that they are staring down the barrel.
Interesting bit: Napak's promised IMF that they will be off the 'Grey List' in Oct 2019 but that hasn't happened and they have to go IMF what are they going to do???

Watch this and enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n3rj-FMN9E
Gautam

:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 20 Oct 2019 18:02


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 20 Oct 2019 18:14

https://nation.com.pk/20-Oct-2019/india ... dr-firdous
And take this U evil yindoo!!
All ur plans have failed against Mard-e-Momeen

Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Oct 2019 18:25

Rsatchi wrote:https://www.dawn.com/news/1511858/sights-and-sounds-of-an-economic-downturn
Yeh to hona hi tha!!!
Rsatchi Ji :



Thousands of workers sent home amid plummeting sales, claim auto vendors - Aamir Shafaat Khan

KARACHI: Vendors have shown exit doors to thousands of daily wage workers, outsource employees and contractual workers from July until date following massive decline in sales in the overall auto sector.

Pakistan Association of Automobile Parts and Accessories Manufacturer (Paapam) Chairman Capt (retd) Mohammad Akram told Dawn on Saturday that he had received feedback from association’s 400 members across the country regarding layoffs of around 40,000 people in view of the steep fall in parts procurement by the car and other auto assemblers after massive sales drop.

He said there are around 1,500-2,000 other small and medium-size vendors who supply parts to the aftermarket. “I think they are not hit hard as aftermarket is going quite strong. We [Paapam’s] 400 vendors supply parts to the auto assemblers exclusively.

“I see more joblessness in case the sales slowdown continues in the next two to three months,” Akram feared while adding that the axe may also fall on permanent workers in the next phase of layoffs. He said the 1QFY20 had already ended in red for the entire auto sector while sales are likely to remain depressed until December.

On rising vehicle prices — especially cars, he cited low localisation in vehicles as one the main reasons. “What assemblers claim of achieving high localisation is wrong, I can prove it,” he said while adding that higher localisation would definitely have averted frequent increase in prices of cars on falling rupee against the dollar.

Akram also complained that assemblers have been persistently increasing vehicle prices but they hesitate in passing on price increase to vendors for parts procurement.

Former Paapam chairman Munir Bana said he had fired up to 300 employees (daily wage workers, contractual, supervisors etc) from July till to date. He added that contracts of those employees who over the age of 60 and were already on extension, were not renewed. “I still have 1,000 workers and staffers left,” he added.

He said after closing down the second shift, his company is now observing four Saturdays as holidays instead of two. Besides, due to lack of workload, the company has also stopped giving overtime as well.

A Balochistan Wheels Ltd official said the company has laid off 300 daily wage workers, workers, contractual and permanent staffers. He said the company has been observing non-production days from Oct 11-24.

“Many vendors are either unable to pay salaries or delaying payments to their workers and staffers due to cash flow problems,” he claimed adding that around 7,000-8,000 workers and staffers had lost their jobs in vending industries of Karachi and Lahore alone.

Contrary to this, the Indus Motor Company (IMC) — the maker of Toyota vehicles — has announced that there will be no layoffs of employees despite slowdown in production. The IMC resumed auto production at 50 per cent capacity from Oct 1 after shutting down plant for last 15 days of September.

The rupee depreciated by around 31.6pc in the last 12 months, but “by not laying off workers and staffers, we are absorbing this financial crunch,” IMC representative said.

Car assemblers have been struggling under rupee depreciation, reduction in car financing, imposition of 2.5-7.5pc federal excise duty, 7pc additional customs duties and 3pc additional sales tax on all imports.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 20 Oct 2019 21:04



1. Turkish company Karkey wins a bigass $1.2 billion in penalty against Pak in the ICJ. Somewhere during the trial they sign a declaration saying that they never bribed any Paki.
2. ISI, using its unrivaled powers of persuasion, shows evidence of Pakis having being bribed by Karkey.
3. Karkey is now in a big soup and may be blacklisted for participating in corruption. It asks ISI to cover up the evidence in return for settling "out of court" for $160 million already received and no further claims.

Wow, ISI just earned a deemed Forex amount of $1 billion for the Paki treasury. No wonder they are loved so much in the country.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Oct 2019 19:04

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,298.38 - Pt. Change : +246.32 - % Change : +0.63

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,58,559.05 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.1925

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,101.14

P S E

Current Index : 33,084.73 – Change : -785.42 - % Change : -2.37% - High : 33,885.47 – Low : 33,074.86

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,511,814,009,156 – $ 1 / T R = 156.1208

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.71 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.37 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Oct 2019 19:25

FATF’s concerns – Editorial

THE latest message from Paris is unmistakable. The tone of the Financial Action Task Force on the conclusion of its plenary indicates how seriously the world is taking Pakistan’s inability to meet global anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing standards.

Read: Pakistan escapes FATF blacklist, but gets warning

These concerns were voiced in so many words by the FATF president when he noted: “Pakistan needs to do more to fix the weaknesses in its anti-money laundering/combating financing for terrorism regime] and it needs to do it faster. Pakistan’s failure to fulfil the FATF global standards is an issue we take very seriously.”

Then followed the warning, perhaps the first since Pakistan was placed on the FATF grey list in June 2018 for an intense monitoring process that the country has only until next February to make “significant progress” on.

It must do this across the full range of the 27-point national action plan agreed on with FATF, or risk action which could include Pakistan being blacklisted along with countries considered a haven for terrorism financing.

The outcome of the plenary is quite the opposite of what ministers and officials had projected.

Contrary to official claims, Pakistan has missed the third deadline for implementing the measures required to exit the grey list. Only five of the 27 measures — which include identification and supervision of terror-financing risks and boosting control on illicit currency movement — have been ‘largely’ addressed. Sadly, the government has never cared to publicly share the document. It is, however, unclear if FATF rules bar it from making the plan public or if it is keeping it a secret for some other reason.

Indeed, FATF also acknowledges the progress made by the country towards improving its AML/CFT regime, but didn’t find it adequate enough to let it off the hook.

It underlines that Pakistan hasn’t adequately demonstrated “proper understanding of the transnational terror-financing risks posed by terrorist groups” [operating from its territory] and conducted supervision on a risk-sensitive basis.

FATF requires Pakistan to deliver on its commitment to crack down on terrorism financing by fixing the strategic deficiencies in the AML/CFT regime such as identification of cash couriers, enforcement of controls on illicit currency movement, effective implementation of financial sanctions against all internationally designated terrorists and militant groups, as well as their agents.

Failure to meet the February deadline for making “significant and sustainable progress” will put the country on the blacklist and have serious consequences for its struggling economy, including tough sanctions on its banks and a freeze on official and private capital inflows.

The time to linger on Pakistan’s commitments has passed. It is now time to walk the talk if the country wants to escape being blacklisted or even get another extension to comply fully with the global AML/CFT standards after the expiry of the current deadline.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Oct 2019 01:08

PTI govt looks the other way as system rots - IKRAM HOTI

ISLAMABAD: All the major global financial institutions are seeing a rotting system in Pakistan. It is only the political elite that is refusing to see it.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and World Economic Forum find Pakistan on a bumpy road. Evaluations on their websites are based on the expected GDP growth, debt volumes, currency value, industrial production, export levels, capacity to generate tax and non-tax revenues and spending extravaganza.

Their projections indicate that Pakistan lacks a clear-cut policy for economic growth, business facilitation, and smart budgeting. These are universally accepted measures taken in all sustainable economies with welfare orientation and a stable democratic system.

Pakistan has most of the time being unable to embark on the right course. Choosing the right path always requires corresponding actions in the spheres of policymaking, governance as well as a smart evaluation of the economic potential.

Under a viable policy, the government allows the business to flourish and extracts utility charges, taxes, and non-tax revenues. It also prevents inflation from eating into savings of low and middle-income earners. Such savings are used for capital formation and expansion. So far, the country has failed to achieve all these objectives.

The government lacks the will to steer itself out of trouble via better governance and improved fiscal management. It consistently argues that the economy has slowed down because of decades of plunder and mismanagement by past administrations.

Can the economy recover with the help of conventional recipes or the government will have to go for unconventional solutions?

If such questions are posed to the economic managers in Islamabad, they will always emphasise that the country has been put on the right track and positive results will emerge soon. The government seems to be handling the economy as a source of meeting fiscal needs and not as a source of meeting public requirements. There are some indicators that are the most relevant in relation to the direction of the national economy. These include consumption and production levels, foreign and local investment and connection between the two as well as the availability of business finance.

These indicators clearly show whether the economy is going forward or backward. Keeping in view the level of interaction among these aspects, the public finance managers find the right clues for policy intervention and adjustment.

The level of intervention by the government helps to find out how the economy can be boosted. However, such an intervention will not produce results if other key indicators are not carefully looked at. These are the value of the currency, import and export quantum, and application of tax and non-tax instruments. Public finance managers manipulate the data in support of government mistreatment of the economy. Growing inflation, unemployment, and falling income levels indicate failure both on the economic and management sides.

The economy is headed in such a direction where it does not support the ordinary people and generate public money. There are no plans to make efforts to achieve such a growth that is required to keep employment and income at favourable levels.

The government needs to understand that besides the size and direction of the economy, tackling corruption and mismanagement should be the focus of all policy decisions. It must also look into the past economic downturn in all its analysis about what went wrong and how things can be corrected.

Pull the rot out of the system and it will gradually become functional in an active manner.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Atmavik » 22 Oct 2019 02:39

yensoy wrote:

1. Turkish company Karkey wins a bigass $1.2 billion in penalty against Pak in the ICJ. Somewhere during the trial they sign a declaration saying that they never bribed any Paki.
2. ISI, using its unrivaled powers of persuasion, shows evidence of Pakis having being bribed by Karkey.
3. Karkey is now in a big soup and may be blacklisted for participating in corruption. It asks ISI to cover up the evidence in return for settling "out of court" for $160 million already received and no further claims.

Wow, ISI just earned a deemed Forex amount of $1 billion for the Paki treasury. No wonder they are loved so much in the country.


Dil behlane ke liye ghalib ... yeh khayaal achaa hai...

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Oct 2019 18:58

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Work behind the headlines - Arifa Noor

THE Financial Action Task Force’s meetings are bookended by much hysteria within and outside Pakistan. Grey list and black — and now our next-door neighbours are discovering shades of grey where none existed earlier. So where the Asia Pacific Group (APG) had also reportedly ‘found’ a grey list to add Pakistan to, the latest FATF meeting led one neighbouring media outlet to ‘discover’ a dark grey list. Soon enough, there will be a charcoal grey or misty grey list for Pakistan’s convenience or inconvenience.

Read : Pakistan escapes FATF blacklist, but gets warning

But the sensationalism is unfortunate, for it draws attention away from the painstaking process the country needs to go through to come off the list. Earlier this month, an APG report was released on the progress Pakistan had and hadn’t made. It was compiled by a number of experts who visited the country last year from Oct 8 to 19.

The 200-page report makes for tedious reading but it shows that FATF objectives are not limited to laws and their implementation but also to the capacity to improve our law-enforcement agencies and ensure convictions; the use of alternative methods where convictions are not possible and spreading awareness and having rules for fields which currently function without any.

This will take time and work. For instance, the report points out that while there may be national coordination among the various law-enforcement agencies there is little cross-CTD (counterterrrorism departments which exist at the provincial level) or cross-provincial coordination. So, the FIA hardly coordinates with the Punjab CTD, for example, or the Financial Monitoring Unit (responsible for collecting and analysing reports of suspicious transactions generated by banks and other institutions) does not coordinate with provincial CTDs. Hence, the provincial CTDs can only access information available to the FMU with the court’s permission but cannot do so during an inquiry..

The CTDs’ capacity across the provinces varies greatly, with Punjab having done the most to build capacity. This means that the latter has the most understanding of terrorism financing (TF). For example, the report indicates that in 2018, the Punjab CTD requested the FMU for information on 26 occasions, and the Sindh CTD only once. There are no figures for KP or Balochistan, presumably because their CTDs didn’t send any requests to the FMU. It seems that apart from Punjab, the other CTDs tend to focus on the security aspect of terrorism — “...the use of financial investigations in TF investigations is very limited”.

The report argues that law-enforcement agencies cannot differentiate between a terrorist act and terrorism financing and how there is little effort to investigate the funding of terrorist acts across provincial borders. This limited understanding of terrorism financing is also revealed by figures in the report. Of the suspicious transaction reports analysed by the FMU, only 5.5pc were passed on to the relevant authorities as related to terrorism or terrorism financing. In comparison, 23pc were suspected of being related to tax evasion and 9.5pc to corruption.

Of equal concern is an issue which has been highlighted time and again — the capacity of law-enforcement agencies to successfully prosecute and ensure convictions. This is brought home by some of the statistics in the report. The figures provided for the last five years show that ANF, FIA, FBR and NAB were able to ensure only one conviction for money laundering; of 161 prosecutions, ANF was able to secure nil convictions; FIA also prosecuted 175 cases to secure no conviction; NAB managed one out of four and FBR zero out of 14.

The report states: “One conviction is not consistent with Pakistan’s risk profile … the collection of insufficient evidence, ineffective use of investigative tools, the delays at trial stage, and the low levels of awareness … of the offence by the judiciary are the main grounds for the disproportion among the figures of investigation, prosecution and conviction as well as not achieving a reasonable conviction rate.”

The record on terrorism financing is no better. Overall, the country has registered 228 terrorism-financing cases in five years and convicted 58 individuals. All this was done at the provincial level.

Apart from the convictions, the provincial CTDs have confiscated over $100,000 over five years. However, it is suggested that this amount is not impressive considering the extent of the problem in Pakistan. But the report notes a commitment to fighting terrorism and how 30pc of terrorism-financing cases were registered between March and October 2018.

The problem though is not just one of the state’s capacity; it is also about the absence of knowledge in society.

Another issue highlighted by the report is the lack of awareness about terrorism financing or money laundering in sectors other than banks. Here it talks specifically of non-banking financial institutions such as currency exchanges or insurance firms as well as designated non-financial businesses and professions (DNFBP) which can include real estate, gems and precious metals. These two sectors, according to the report, can be used for both money laundering and terrorism financing but those involved in the two categories, especially the second one, have no awareness of the issue.

So, for instance, where banks have rules and regulations in place to vet those who want to open accounts and the FMU has been established to raise a red flag on suspicious transactions, few of the latter are reported by other sectors.

According to the breakdown provided in the report, up to June 2018, commercial banks filed over 70pc of the suspected transaction reports with the FMU; exchange companies in one category filed 25pc while DNFBP filed 0pc. This shows that the issue is not as simple as having laws in place but also requires raising awareness and changing the way private-sector companies work.

There is an equally lengthy section on charities, or what the report calls non-profit organisations, and the absence of laws and capacity to monitor these or their misuse.

Indeed, the report simply underlines the enormity of the task ahead. Much work and patience is going to be needed. Politicising or sensationalising the issue is not going to help.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Oct 2019 00:42

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Oct 2019 02:15

Can demonetisation help address Pakistan’s FATF concerns? - Arslaan Asif Soomro

While many in Pakistan celebrated after hearing the news that Pakistan had survived ‘Indian lobbying’ attempts to get Pakistan onto the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) black-list, it would be foolish to think that a position on the grey-list is something to be proud of. FATF’s primary duty is to be a global watchdog which curbs money laundering and terror financing, and while Pakistan has assured the task force that the nation will achieve the set targets, the likelihood of this happening still remains circumspect, especially given the wide array of problems the nation is already facing.

Undoubtedly, the pace of ‘progress’ is far below the desired rate. Regardless of whether you wish to blame the new government, a lack of seriousness or an inherent complacency within our institutions, the simple truth of the matter is that Pakistan needs to double down and a find a solution to these long festering problems. If the FATF were to advise its members against engaging in business activities with Pakistan, we could see a massive choking of the already feeble economy. Pakistan cannot afford to have banks, investors and buyers completely disregard the country as a viable investment destination. Given that Pakistan desperately needs to take drastic steps in an attempt to cut the flow of money laundering, it has been argued that demonetisation could help put Pakistan onto this desired path.

Demonetisation means stripping away the currency’s legal tender. Countries have often been demonetised in the past in a bid to fight hyperinflation or when the underlying reserve was altered. Pakistan, however, has two recent examples to learn from. Modi’s controversial demonetisation policy was initially justified by stating that such an undertaking would combat the unregulated flow of black money, thus ensuring that money being used for illicit activities would no longer slip through the net undetected. Similarly, Kenya’s recent demonetisation exercise was also sold to the masses as a vehicle through which corruption could be tackled. However, Modi’s experiment received severe backlash because it was sprung on an unsuspecting nation, offering the people very little time to understand what exactly had transpired, while the state institutions were simply not prepared for the switch. New notes were not printed fast enough, India’s informal economy suffered, and the move led to the nations’s gross domestic product (GDP) taking a hit too. On other hand, demonetisation in Kenya has been far more successful than it was in India, yet it too has so far failed to adequately root out corruption. The manner in which both Kenya and India went about their demonetisation helps give Pakistan some insight into how such a policy can work and what the pitfalls may be.

In theory, demonetisation could kill three birds with one stone: tax evasion, the unregulated economy and FATF’s concerns. But, the success of demonetisation hinges on how readily the masses are able to adapt to these changes. It is also imperative that if Pakistan were to go forward with such policy measures then the government must ensure that its institutions are first properly-equipped to adjust to the requirements of this change. Furthermore, the advent of 5G, cheap internet, a young tech-savy population and low tax revenues are all necessary ingredients for demonetisation.

The benefits of demonetisation usually surface a few years after the measures are taken and can be comprehensively analysed in the form of reams of data for both the state and businesses; while the wealth generated from demonetisation can put thousands of graduates into the employment pool. Plus, a demonetisation drive coupled with an anti-corruption drive would send a clear message to local and global investors that Pakistan is serious about getting its house in order. Yes, the economy would experience a bit of a slump initially, but it is better to enact these polices now and reap the benefits later on, rather than being haphazardly forced to go down this path in the future. With a bright, talented and foreign-trained digital-enthusiast like Raza Baqir at the helm of affairs, the government has the right set of people needed to help spearhead such an undertaking.

It’s often said that we need to grow above five per cent per annum for decades in order to materially bring people out of poverty and help ensure prosperity. If we are to achieve that, it is imperative that we put into place policies which begin to take us in that direction. I strongly believe that a cash-less society is an inescapable eventuality, so either Pakistan can prepare for it or be blind-sided by it when it does strike.

Comments : This is a warning to the Terroristani Generals, Money Bags and those with Oodles of Black Money to take measures to counter the “Demonetization” such as using the Hawala Route to send their ill-gotten gains out of Terroristan ASAP!

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