Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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CalvinH
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Deans wrote:
Atmavik wrote:PKR up to 276
The rate is not very relevant now, since there are no dollars to buy at any price. For H&D sake, Pak will be allowed to say they have stabilised it at 276. In black there may be offers to buy at over 300, but no sellers.
A very short period till it starts to matter again. Pakis tried keeping it at 225 doing the same as containers kept building at the port for lack of LCs. For a nation dependent on exports for daily items like Tea, Pulses and cooking oil how long can they allow to keep it stabilized.

My feeling is that Dar will let it slowly slide to 300.
Atmavik
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

brilliant solutions to pakis economic situation

https://mobile.twitter.com/nailainayat/ ... 3730138112
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

^^^
The best response yet on twitter
To paisa kis haath se lega?
Positive news Brothers!! Pakistan at the forefront of green energy revolution to completely eliminate hydrocarbons!!

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399334/la ... shuts-down

Largest refinery shuts down

Pakistan’s largest oil refinery has shut down for about a week due to the unavailability of crude oil as the US dollar shortfall and massive rupee devaluation hit its crude import capacity.
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399322/fb ... yers-money

FBR diverts taxpayers’ money

In an unethical move, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified new rules to divert taxes and fees for the distribution of allowances among its officers including the chairman and other personal benefits of officers belonging to the Inland Revenue Service (IRS).
...
Every citizen pays Re1 on every invoice at the time of shopping – a collection that runs into hundreds of millions of rupees, which will now be used for the personal benefit of taxmen.
To be honest, India does this too -- I saw in a documentary "Munnabhai MBBS" where the tax collector called Circuit collects money and uses it for his personal benefit. There was another documentary Nayakan where the tax collector there used to collect money at the port and use for his personal benefit.
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Atmavik wrote:brilliant solutions to pakis economic situation

https://mobile.twitter.com/nailainayat/ ... 3730138112
Why not fire, fire a Ghauri at Qatar, UAE and Saudi so that they get the message?
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Aditya_V wrote:
Atmavik wrote:brilliant solutions to pakis economic situation
https://mobile.twitter.com/nailainayat/ ... 3730138112
Why not fire, fire a Ghauri at Qatar, UAE and Saudi so that they get the message?
I love his hand gesture, very cute like this kitty
RCase
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RCase »

Anujan wrote:https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399322/fb ... yers-money

FBR diverts taxpayers’ money


To be honest, India does this too -- I saw in a documentary "Munnabhai MBBS" where the tax collector called Circuit collects money and uses it for his personal benefit. There was another documentary Nayakan where the tax collector there used to collect money at the port and use for his personal benefit.
Their chief justice diverted public money to his personal retirement account. Remember Saqib 'Dam' Nissar?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Anujan wrote:..
Positive news Brothers!! Pakistan at the forefront of green energy revolution to completely eliminate hydrocarbons!!

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399334/la ... shuts-down
Anujan ji, blue is the new green!
As per paki security anal-cysts india is the sea-locked country. As per paki economy anal-cysts Bakistan could be sea-unlocked one.

Yawn - Blue Pakistan
‘BLUE economy’ refers to sustainable and inclusive water resource management that covers all coastal activities, marine-related industries, and services that could generate revenue and bolster socioeconomic well-being. It also encompasses the energy (oil, gas and renewables), shipping, maritime, aquaculture, fisheries and tourism sectors and integrates environmental management, economic growth, and aquatic ecosystem sustainability.

Despite having the potential to generate more than $100 billion, Pakistan’s current blue landscape is limited to generating an estimated $1bn. Most of it comes from fisheries, coastal tourism, and marine revenue, but the lack of modern industries such as energy and minerals restricts its potential.

Meanwhile, regional states are making billions of dollars from this sector. According to some experts, if the travel and coastal tourism sectors were to be improved to international levels, they could even contribute up to 10pc of GDP by the next decade or so. Unfor­tunately, earni­n­­gs from Pakis­tan’s tourism indu­stry are a mere 0.4 per cent of GDP, compa­red to Thailand’s at 18pc, Mala­y­sia’s at 6pc, and Sri Lanka’s at 6pc. Un­­f­o­r­tunately, it is South Asia’s least competitive travel and tourism country.

If Pakistan were to achieve long-term growth and reap dividends from the blue economy, it has to adopt and put into practice a rigorous, localised, and sustainable policymaking framework on a war footing. # everything in jihadistan has to be done of war-footing.. except war
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hgupta »

Anujan wrote:^^^

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399334/la ... shuts-down

Largest refinery shuts down

Pakistan’s largest oil refinery has shut down for about a week due to the unavailability of crude oil as the US dollar shortfall and massive rupee devaluation hit its crude import capacity.
If the refinery shuts down, it basically means that Pakistan will have no fuel left for its own citizens and even the Army. The mighty PA will be immobilized due to lack of fuel. You need the refinery to distill the oil into usable fuel and diesel. Without it, any supply of oil is basically useless. So if you shut down the refinery for more than a certain period of time, it will become permanently disabled until you go through a very expensive process of restarting the refinery which will require a massive infusion of capital. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

And Pakis rather than giving up parts of POK are still having thier wet dreams.
g.sarkar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

The Pakistani armed forces will have some fuel stored for emergency. After that Pakistan will be under just the protection of Allah Almighty. If the economic situation was reversed, I am certain the Pak army would have attacked India by now.
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rajkumar »

Pakistan complains that #Iran has stopped 80% electricity export to #Pakistan without any notice due to pending payments

https://twitter.com/IFENewsAgency/statu ... qVEduSOOiA
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

It’s time for Iran vs Pakistan now.
When peace meets peace,
All that’s left is pieces
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Parasu »

https://www.dawn.com/news/1735460/imf-c ... pm-shehbaz

"IMF combing ‘every book, every subsidy’ during negotiations: PM Shehbaz"

Shame on IMF for not believing Bhikaristan's books.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Parasu wrote:https://www.dawn.com/news/1735460/imf-c ... pm-shehbaz

"IMF combing ‘every book, every subsidy’ during negotiations: PM Shehbaz"

Shame on IMF for not believing Bhikaristan's books.
Why are they combing books... there is only one book that matters in jihadistan.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Parasu wrote:https://www.dawn.com/news/1735460/imf-c ... pm-shehbaz

"IMF combing ‘every book, every subsidy’ during negotiations: PM Shehbaz"

Shame on IMF for not believing Bhikaristan's books.
Last 20 years during the war on terror Pakis had a dream run with IMF giving funds without much scrutiny due to US influence which led to Pakis deluding themselves into thinking that they "won" against IMF which is the source of Ishaq Dar's arrogance when he said he knows how to deal with IMF. Now Pakis are getting a reality check for which they are completely unprepared. They are discovering their true aukaat.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2399332/im ... unprepared
Pakistan has presented self-contradictory solutions to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to resolve gas sector circular debt of over Rs1.6 trillion, showing a lack of in-house consensus in a matter that could create hurdles in the coming days.
During a session on the government’s plan to settle the gas sector circular debt, the Pakistani authorities first proposed settling over Rs540 billion in circular debt through cash in a single day, sources told The Express Tribune.

Towards the end of the meeting, however, another government representative suddenly said that there was no final decision about addressing the issue through cash. He went on to say that there was also a proposal to address the chronic problem through book adjustments and in multiple transactions.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Parasu »

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakista ... rt-3755705

"Pakistan, IMF At Odds Over 900 Billion Rupees Fiscal Gap: Report
IMF has worked out a larger gap of approximately 900 billion rupees, equivalent to 1 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP)."

Three and half billion dollars. :shock:
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

900 billion PKR = 90000 kuffar dollah
IMF has blasphemed against holy pkr, make them pay
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Parasu wrote:https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakista ... rt-3755705
"Pakistan, IMF At Odds Over 900 Billion Rupees Fiscal Gap: Report
IMF has worked out a larger gap of approximately 900 billion rupees, equivalent to 1 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP)."
Three and half billion dollars. :shock:
If IMF delays a few more months then it will only amount to one and half billion dollars. Why IMF so worried ji?
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

I think it is better for Pakistan to restructure its domestic and international debt. Just default and refuse to pay.

The alternatives are:

1) IMF will cough up 1.5 Billion $. "Friendly countries" will cough up 5 billion $ more. Bilawal is in US begging for dollars to "launch an operation against the taliban" all of this will kick the can down the road for 2 years or so, then it is back to IMF time.

2) Or Dimmy will ride the wave of popular discontent about increased petrol, electricity prices and taxes, and 1 year down the road, it is back to begging time.

A better approach would be to tell everyone that Pakistan is not paying, it was their fault to lend the money to Pakistan to begin with. In any case, Pakistan deserves more money just for existing. And default on all the loans.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hnair »

Anujan, regarding Immy, this is the country where (as you pointed out in other thread) an ugly weasel like Musharraf got 98% votes after very publicly surrendering so-virginity to khan and killing very pious kids at Lal Masjid. So popular discontent has got nothing to do with electoral outcomes in Pak.

Only which faction is dominant enough to stuff the ballots will decide who wins. So it is not a given for Kaptan to be back in power, even if public eat grass and each other. Shabby can raise as much tax as he wants. He is safe right now
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by neeraj »

Party’s over
On August 15, 1947, the day after Pakistan declared independence, the United States established diplomatic relations with us. In 1954, Pakistan entered into a Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement with the US.


In 1955, Pakistan joined the Baghdad Pact, Cento. In 1956, President Eisenhower sought permission from PM Suhrawardy to lease the Peshawar Air Station for the purpose of gathering intelligence on Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles. In 1961, President Ayub made his first visit to the US as head of state, receiving an elaborate state dinner at Mount Vernon and a ticker tape parade in New York City. In 1971, President Nixon and Henry Kissinger utilized Pakistan’s relationship with China to initiate secret talks, leading to Kissinger’s secret visit to China.

In 1989, Benazir Bhutto met President Bush. Between 1979 and 1989, the CIA ran ‘Operation Cyclone’ with a budget of multiple billions to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Pakistan became a key ally of the US in the war on terror.

Between 1951 and 2011, the US provided approximately $67 billion in aid to Pakistan. In 2009, the Kerry-Lugar-Berman authorized $7.5 billion, a tripling of US economic assistance to Pakistan. Between 2002 and 2013, Pakistan received $28 billion in economic and military aid. Between 2014 and 2018, the ‘planned’ US assistance to Pakistan stood at $5 billion.

Over the past 75 years, a whole host of US-backed multilateral agencies have lent us $60 billion. We also owe the Paris Club an additional $10 billion. Bilateral loans now amount to $40 billion of which the Chinese have lent us a wholesome $30 billion. In December 2021, Saudi Arabia loaned $3 billion at the rate of 4.0 per cent. On January 12, the UAE rolled-over $2 billion and pledged an additional $1 billion.

Over the decades, we have received hefty ‘rents’ from ‘external sources’.On August 30, 2021 US Army Major-General Donahue was the last American soldier to depart Afghanistan. That is when the bash finished. That is when the merrymaking concluded. Yes, the shindig has come to an end. On January 22, 2023 the Saudi minister of finance said: “We used to give direct grants and deposits without strings attached and we are changing that. We are working with multilateral institutions; emphasis will now be placed on economic reforms in friendly countries.”

Our leaders must wake up. :(( The festivities are through. We can no longer rely on support from outside. Our leaders must mend their ways. Stop losing Rs400 billion a year, every year in the electricity sector. Stop losing Rs200 billion a year, every year in the gas sector. Stop losing Rs150 billion a year, every year in PASSCO. Stop losing Rs67 billion a year, every year in PIA.

Our decision-makers must wake up. The soiree has concluded. Focus on indigenous potential. Our potential for solar power is 2.9 million MW. The government is generating 530 MW. Our potential for wind power is 346,000 MW. We are generating 1,248 MW. Our potential for wheat is 80 million tons. We are producing 27 million tons. Our potential for cotton is 23 million bales. We are producing 10 million bales. Our potential for rice is 13 million tons. We are producing 7 million tons. The party is over. The bash is done. The jamboree has come to a close. Let’s put our house in order.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sanjaykumar »

Not quite yet. The aim is to allow Pakistan to fall into the gutter and keep pushing it back in. Once it forfeits those pesky nukes, it will be put on life support.


So it was for kooks with nooks.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

So what is the exchange ratio 1 Pious TFTA Paki Rupee= 30 Paise of Indian Kafir rupee? Yeh dil Mange More , 10 PKR= 1 INR ratio soon.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Deadlock persists between govt, IMF over Rs900bn fiscal gap
ISLAMABAD: Amid the lingering stalemate over the fiscal gap, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worked out a larger gap of approximately Rs900 billion, equivalent to 1% of the gross domestic product (GDP). It is a major stumbling block in striking a staff-level agreement.

However, Pakistani authorities have contested such a huge fiscal gap in achieving the primary deficit and asked the IMF for incorporating flow of reduction under the revised Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP) and reduced amount of required additional subsidy of Rs605 billion against the earlier target of Rs687 billion.

Therefore, the fiscal gap stood in the range of Rs400 to Rs450 billion.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Nearly 1 million move as PKR dives
LAHORE: Pakistan’s rising urban middle-class has seemingly accepted the obvious influence of the American dollar in the country’s economy and in their daily lives as majority of the segment is now looking for ways to earn in dollar or other foreign currencies.

Earning in dollars for many is key to maintain their lifestyles in such an inflationary time. And in order to earn in dollars, or other foreign currencies, migration to the US, UK, Canada or Australia has become first priority.

According to data released recently by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE), some 832,339 Pakistanis left the country in 2022 in an attempt to secure a better future.

The number of immigrants in 2022 is significantly higher than the 288,280 having left in 2021. In 2015, however, 946,571 Pakistani’s left for the overseas, the highest number so far recorded in the history of the country.
“I believe that I will be unable to maintain my lifestyle in Pakistan, given the current circumstances, which are becoming worse with each passing day,” said Faizan Haider, a young professional based in Lahore.

“Although I currently draw a handsome salary, I think I can make a better living if I try my luck outside Pakistan. To do that, I am even willing to take on some odd jobs initially before returning to my professional field,” he added.

“Earning in dollars is the need of the day. It is necessary to combat the effect of rupee devaluation which has propelled the price of essential commodities and luxury items in Pakistan,” elaborated Haider.

The working and business class is much more concerned now about the state of the country’s economy and the looming risk of default.
Speaking to the Express Tribune, economist and professor, Doctor Qais Aslam said, “Brain-drain is not always a negative thing. Countries also build their economies by exporting manpower to other countries.”

Citing the example of India, he said, “They have a large number of expats working in other economies and send huge amounts of remittances back to their home-country. This has strengthened their economy. But India has a much larger number of professionals in the field of information technology, medicine, and the financial sector through which they are also adding their own influence to western think tanks,” added Aslam.

In 2022, India touched the $100 billion figure in the shape of remittances, whereas Pakistan’s total amount of remittances for the year 2022 stood at $29.5 billion.


“Pakistan is a populous country; we don’t have many opportunities for such a huge number since our economy is not that strong,” he said.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Lawhore-via-kuwait, i thought the IMF-Pakistan tie-up was a match made in heaven. After the comb & the scissors looks like it is time for the straight razor...

Yawn - Pakistan must dive deeper into muddy fiscal waters to fix the economy if it wants to break up with the IMF
It is time the Fund did it. Period. If Pakistan wants to break up with the lender of last resort, it must dive deeper into muddy fiscal waters to fix the economy to deal with what the prime minister described as ‘unimaginable economic challenges’ facing the country.

Indeed, the IMF conditions for its dollars are ‘beyond our wildest dreams’ as the premier put them and require a strong political will to implement in an election year due to the unbearable pain they will cause to the low-middle-class people already struggling to survive soaring price inflation.

“Everyone is stealing tax: be they importers, retailers, wholesalers, textile and sugar factory owners, other industries, etc. The painful thing is that the state encourages this through policies. The tax non-filers pay is just 5 per cent on the purchase of a piece of real estate — that too on the Federal Board of Revenue of Pakistan rate and not its market value at which they buy."

“They have hired ‘carriers’ who go to Dubai every week and bring back suitcases full of such items. The expensive branded watches, perfumes, purses and whatnot we buy from major department stores are brought in this way. I know a case where one of my clients imported a Porsche car by air under the personal baggage scheme. Can this happen anywhere else?” he chuckled.

“We have depreciated the rupee from Rs 230 a dollar to Rs 273 a dollar. But has it abolished the black market? If you want to buy dollars for travel or pay fees for your children studying abroad, you pay Rs 290 a dollar in the black market.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sajo »

Dilbu wrote: According to data released recently by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE), some 832,339 Pakistanis left the country in 2022 in an attempt to secure a better future.

The number of immigrants in 2022 is significantly higher than the 288,280 having left in 2021. In 2015, however, 946,571 Pakistani’s left for the overseas, the highest number so far recorded in the history of the country.

Can some learned and pious Maulaners let the awaam know how come such massive numbers can leave for phoren shores without having the benefit of education or a business base ? The consulates in Bakiland would be working overtime and then some to process all these numbers.
Which country is playing host for a major part ?
And that would be, I am assuming, before we get to the people who arrive in boats.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

^Mostly elites with dual citizenship.
Last edited by Bart S on 06 Feb 2023 16:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

@gauravcsawant
https://twitter.com/gauravcsawant/statu ... 9233385473
Undated viral video of acute poverty & food shortages in #Pakistan.
In a land made by Allah (acc to Pak finance minister) for #Muslims, these muslims are crying.
Neither they nor their children have anything to eat.
Clearly ranting about #Kashmir does not fill an empty stomach..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

Google is showing:
1 United States Dollar equals 278.92 Pakistani Rupee.
Triple century is within the grasp.
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Car maker starts returning booking amount to buyers
ISLAMABAD: An auto manufacturer has started returning the booking amount to buyers, lamen­ting that the current economic conditions had made it difficult for it to continue production.

Toyota has offered the option for a full refund along with the interest amount, saying that the company’s production would remain “very low” in February and March.

Ali Asghar Jamali, chief executive officer of the Indus Motor Company, which makes Toyota cars in Pakistan, said the government must take steps to bring political stability, harmonise trade relations with neighbouring countries :(( and harness daylight hours to reduce oil imp­orts and save electricity.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Needed to arrange for salaries of the kabila fauj probably..

Yawn - Deposit 50 pc super tax in seven days, SC orders
The Supreme Court on Monday modified an interim order of the Lahore High Court (LHC) and directed wealthy taxpayers to deposit their 50 per cent due super tax directly with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) within one week.

Through the Finance Act 2022, the government has imposed a super tax on high-earning persons by inserting a new section 4C in the income tax ordinance. Through the section, FBR imposed a 10pc super tax on 13 sectors earning more than Rs 150 million from tax year 2022.

The sectors are steel, banking, cement, cigarettes, chemicals, beverages, and liquefied natural gas terminals, airlines, textile, automobile, sugar mills, oil and gas, and fertiliser.
ernest
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ernest »

Bart S wrote:^Mostly elites with dual citizenship.
Another important factor is the community support to bring more pakis by pakis residing in western countries. I have seen situations where paki families have gone all out to bring every chacha-bhatija they have by legal or illegal means. There is a sense of desperation, as well as entitlement driving this. Where many NRIs are contemplating returning to India, and a sizeable chunk do so, pakis are full throttle on getting out of madina 2.0 . It is an industry rivaling any fauji foundation enterprise in land of pure
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Power plants down
Auto industry halting produc tion
Textiles closing down
Pharma https://www.dawn.com/news/1735769/40-ph ... production
(Didnt know Pak had a Pharma industry)
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Neela wrote:Power plants down
Auto industry halting produc tion
Textiles closing down
Pharma https://www.dawn.com/news/1735769/40-ph ... production
(Didnt know Pak had a Pharma industry)
probably one dilapidated, crore kammandu owned factory making high priced, adulterated aspirin to help reduce elite induced headaches of the awam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

IMF ASKS PAKISTAN TO ‘DO MORE’ FOR REVIVAL OF STALLED LOAN PROGRAMME
ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked Pakistan to ‘do more’ for the revival of stalled loan programme as technical talks have been completed in Islamabad, ARY News reported, citing sources.

During the technical talks, the IMF team remained committed to its demands with regard to increasing General Sales Tax (GST) from 17 to 18 percent on all goods with a point of view that a one percent GST hike will help in collecting another Rs 39 billion, sources added.

The IMF has also emphasized the Pakistani team not only for the abolishment of income tax exemption but to impose a Flood levy to meet FBR’s revenue target in the current fiscal year of 2022-23.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Parasu »

Bhikharistan gobermint has probably placed a ban on media reporting about the economic situation in milk and honey land.
They are also prohibited from reporting on how far the IMF bamboo has gone inside.

Nothing new. This happens everytime market sentiments need control, lest they get affected by 6th gen warfare of dirty juice and yindoos.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... ltdown-pak
GHQ-PLA combine causing financial meltdown in Pak
Madhav Nalapat, February 4, 2023

Mumbai: Since the 1960s, a shared antipathy towards India has brought GHQ Rawalpindi and the PLA together in what both sides describe as an “all-weather iron embrace”. The nature of the activity generated through this partnership of unequals has over the decades led to the “iron” in the relationship fashioning itself into a straitjacket that is squeezing vitality and viability out of the Pakistan economy and society. Often at the expense of the interests of the people of Pakistan, the armed forces in that military-ruled state have been busy in carrying out a substantial share of the joint GHQ-PLA asymmetric war against India. Over the years, the world’s most populous democracy has fashioned methods designed to muffle and blunt the effects of opaque and overt hostile operations of the Sino-Pakistan axis, especially since 2018-19. The stable of terror groups created and nurtured by the Pakistan military has had the benefit of substantial support from the PLA and the Central Military Commission in general. Chinese support has gone to the extent of protecting several of the most dangerous global terrorists resident in Pakistan from United Nations sanctions, a policy that remains substantially in place. In Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, notably in Gilgit-Baltistan, but for infrastructure, trained personnel, technology and resources from its “all-weather” partner across the Karakoram range, GHQ Rawalpindi would have found it much more difficult to forcibly damp down unrest among the local population. Across not just Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) but throughout Pakistan itself, local populations have turned hostile to the Communist Chinese who are using the territory of Pakistan to promote what the CMC (Central Military Commission) calculates to be the interests of the CCP. The objective is to make Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Pakistan a reliable, docile rear area for the PLA and for other agencies of the Chinese Communist Party to operate with impunity.
Technically, only around 38% of the external debt owed by Pakistan can be sourced to China. However, over and above this comes expenditure by the Pakistan government and army on keeping secure and facilitating PRC projects in the country and in PoK. Although precise figures for such expenditure have not been made public, they are substantial enough to have roused the ire of local populations around each of the multiplying number of installations that the CCP has directed get made and operated in a country that is on the edge of a Sri Lanka-style default on its international financial obligations. Although pressured by China and to a lesser extent by the United States, the IMF has thus far refused to release additional funding to Pakistan in the absence of changes in governance practices and in modes of spending. The effort by the CCP and its friends in Washington is to try and get prepared paperwork that purports to show that enough of the reforms mandated by the IMF have been carried out, when they have not. In the next few days, it will be seen whether the IMF as an institution allows itself to be misled in this fashion, when the reality is that only a complete write-off by the PRC of the loans outstanding to Pakistan, added to a $100 billion grant to Pakistan from China, can stabilise the situation enough to permit a genuine effort at reform. As yet, in a pattern seen earlier with Sri Lanka, the CCP has shown itself unwilling to agree to such a debt write-off and a sufficiently large money grant to Pakistan. Clearly, the “all-weather iron friendship” is showing signs of stormy weather as well as a significant quantity of rust on the iron superstructure of the GHQ-PLA relationship.
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Gautam
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
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Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Fuel shortage.
So it begins
The petroleum supply – especially in the north—is no long at normal levels for the past week or so, even though there are no immediate signs of shortage of petroleum products (petrol and high-speed diesel) in the short term. The country has stocks of 18 days of petrol consumption:30 days in the case of diesel. And some more supply is in the pipeline. However, farmers are complaining about shortage of diesel in rural Punjab while commuters are complaining of rationing in supply of petrol at petrol stations.

This is happening as suppliers are expecting a significant jump in prices before 15th February. Oil Marketing Companies (such as Shell, and Hascoletc), agencies, dealers (petrol pump owners), consumers and others are hoarding petroleum products as much as they can as they expect Rs30-50 jump in prices per liter and want to have capital gains.
The ground reality today is that the country has around 18 days of stock of petrol (approximately 600 mn liters) and 30 days of diesel (around 700 million liters). And new imports are subject to LCs opening. And that is subject to dollar inflows. None of these are going to be at normal levels anytime soon. Thus, imports must remain less. And for that consumption of petroleum must be rationed.

However, not all the petroleum products are being imported. Approximately, 30 percent of petrol and 70 percent of diesel supply usually comes from local refineries. And for that supply, locally produced crude is good for 20 percent of refineries production. Then is a case of deferred oil facility – 1t is at $100 million per month, at current prices, it would supply another 20 percent crude need for domestic refineries.

Thus, if things head south i.e., an economic default, refineries will be able to operate at 40 percent capacity. This would ensure supply of 12-15 percent of petrol and 28-30 percent of diesel at today’s consumption. This would mean extreme rationing with the black market to operate in full swing. Its surely going to be an ugly situation.
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