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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Kashi
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 24 Aug 2016 17:23

^^ You are assuming that Baki crore kammandus will give a damn if Baki aawam will be piled up with further debt. They simply don't. They'll pass on the burden to Baki Abduls, readily default on IMF/WB loans and play the nuclear card when pressed for repayment by the international community. As for China, they'll be handed over G-B and PoK on lease in perpetuity.

CPEC is nothing but an elaborate scam by TSPA and PRC to fleece the Baki aawam of whatever little money they have. The fauj will get its share and the leaderaan will be left holding the baby.

arun
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 04 Sep 2016 10:27

While other economists speaking at a seminar fret about the parlous state of the economy of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, one time BRF “favourite” with an entry in the BRF Dictionary, Paagal Sehgal aka Ikram Sehgal, thinks otherwise :

‘Pakistan headed towards another IMF bailout’

Shankas
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Shankas » 21 Sep 2016 09:33


Paul
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Paul » 21 Sep 2016 09:59

Ikram Sehgal was also mehman POW of Indian army in 1971.

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Oct 2016 23:56

Gurus, Maulanars and BRFites All,

I trust you have noticed the Indian Govt. and Business Community anxious for Pakistani Access to overland Trade with Afghanistan and the Five CARs in 2015-2016.

I have checked with the Ministry of Commerce D. G. F. T. and find that the Total Exports to Afghanistan and the Five CARs is US$ 889.05 Million of which Afghanistan takes US$ 526.60 million and Kazakhstan US$ 151.91 Million. The other Four take a Total of 210.54

The total Exports to the Six Countries are US$ 764.83 Million of which Imports from Afghanistan are US$ 307.90 Million and from Kazakhstan are 352.93 Million. Imports the remaining Four is a mere US$ 104 Million.

If India receives Land Transit Facilities to Afghanistan and the Five CARs then India will have to give Land Transit Facilities to Cwapistan for Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh and may be to Myanmar.

Can India afford the Risk of giving Land Transit Facilities to Cwapistan?

Note :
Exports to Cwapistan in 2015-2016 were US$ 2.17114 Billion and Imports from Cwapistan were US$ 0.44103 Billion.
Cheers Image

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Oct 2016 16:59

1. Remittances fall 9.3% in September
KARACHI: Overseas Pakistani workers remitted $1,609 million during September 2016, down 9.3% compared to $1,776 million in the same month of last year, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

2.Foreign exchange reserves not at ‘comfortable levels’
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves have not yet reached a “comfortable level” and the rupee is significantly overvalued compared to the US dollar, and requires depreciation to remain competitive in international markets, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Thursday.
The remarks come amid a plethora of boasts given by the Pakistani government over the comfortable position the country finds itself in when it comes to managing the import bill and foreign exchange reserves.
The IMF report also showed that Pakistan’s inflation-adjustedexchange rate, known as Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), should be Rs118.3 to a dollar.“We have estimated that the REER is somehow overvalued between 5% to 20%, depending upon which model you apply, although these models are not very accurate but give an indication where things stand,” said Finger.
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deejay
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby deejay » 14 Oct 2016 21:40

Interesting discussion on increase in Gas prices and loans in TSP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lDuxF-AR_o


K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 14 Oct 2016 23:26

Latest on "foreign exchange reserve"
Reserves decline 0.5pc to $23.5bn
SBP’s liquid foreign exchange reserves decreased $81 million to $18.4bn during the week. During the week, the SBP made payments of $76m on account of external debt servicing.

Reserves witnessed a major boost in the week ending on Sept 23 when Pakistan received $700m from China Development Bank.


Latest on the "circular debt"
PSO in financial stress as receivables hit Rs247.6bn
The state-owned Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has reported to the federal government that its total receivables increased to Rs247.6bn as of Oct 2. The company’s receivables previously peaked at Rs220bn in May 2013 before the government cleared a circular debt worth Rs480bn through a controversial scheme of cash and book payments.

So bakis have exceeded the level of circular debt of last time.

K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Oct 2016 10:28

The imports of bakistan now exceed the total of export and remittances. Even if FDI is added to latter, it still is lesser than the imports. The remittances and exports are declining and imports are increasing. Expect the "high reserve of foreign exchange" to decline.

Foreign currency earnings: Following remittances, exports also fall

After remittances, exports also nosedived to just $4.7 billion in first quarter of the current fiscal year, setting alarm bells ringing over an anticipated surge in the country’s external financing needs to meet international debt obligations and foot the growing import bill.

Exports fell 9% from July through September compared to the same period of last year, reported the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday.

Compared to this, imports surged 10.7% to $11.7 billion in the same period. Resultantly, Pakistan posted $7.1-billion trade deficit in the first quarter, which was $1.6 billion or 29.2% more than the deficit in the corresponding period of last year.

The deficit was also $1.8 billion more than what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected for the quarter.

“We do see a decline in exports going forward due to appreciation of the Real Effective Exchange Rate, security and governance challenges and power outages,” said Harold Finger, IMF Mission Chief to Pakistan, on Thursday.
Remittances dropped to $4.7 billion in the first quarter, down 5.3% from the same period of the preceding year.

Receipts from exports slipped to $4.68 billion in the Jul-Sept quarter, which was 9% or $462 million less than the receipts in the same period of previous year. The receipts were $641 million less than the IMF estimate.

Imports, however, recorded a growth of 10.7% as payments stood at $11.7 billion, which was $1.14 billion more than the payments made in Jul-Sept last year.

There was almost 7% contraction in exports in September alone as goods fetched $1.54 billion.

Owing to the falling remittances and exports – the two important sources of foreign exchange – coupled with shrinking foreign direct investment (FDI), the government has resorted to dollar borrowing to build its foreign currency reserves, which is not sustainable.

Ironically, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Friday congratulated Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after the reserves rose to $24.5 billion on the back of $1-billion Sukuk borrowing.

Just a day earlier, the IMF said the reserves may have increased, but had not reached “comfortable levels”.

The IMF’s last report on the $6.4-billion bailout programme revealed that Pakistan’s gross external financing needs would reach $10.9 billion in 2016-17. Since the trade deficit stood $1.8 billion higher than the IMF’s estimate, the financing requirement is also likely to go up accordingly.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 15 Oct 2016 12:32

Cotton shortfall of 3m bales to force traders increase imports-daily times pk
A shortfall of around 3.3 million cotton bales to 9.9 million bales during the crop season 2016-17 will force leading users and importers to strike deals with USA, India and Brazil and other major cotton producing countries, cotton experts said. Pakistan is facing a shortfall of more than 3 million bales against a target of around 12.10 million cotton bales in the current crop season, Ghulam Rabbani, a senor member of Pakistan Cotton Association, said.
Due to falling supply and tendency of farmers to move to other cash crops like sugarcane and rice, the lint cultivation area witnessed a decrease in the main cultivation zones in country
The attack of viruses like Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV), bollworm and yellowing of crops are also major causes of decrease in crop size. Pakistan is expecting to import more than 2 million bales during September 2016-January 2017


bakistan produces low quality cotton which is called lint in textile terms. It is not even accepted by their own textile industry.

Indian cotton Shanker-6 variety will cost around near 84-87 cents per pound. Currently, Pakistan’s cotton price in the international market is around 69-70 cents per pound.

Pakistan has so far exported around 2,500 cotton bales by the end August to Bangladesh, Thailand and other regional countries.

anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 15 Oct 2016 17:31

Trade gap swells to $7bn

The trade deficit rose nearly 30 per cent year-on-year to $7.06 billion in the first quarter of 2016-17 mainly because of falling exports coupled with a double-digit increase in imports
a surge in imports was seen in machinery, metal group and essential food items
Pakistani exporters are operating in a difficult environment


Harami link: http://www.dawn.com/news/1290006/trade- ... lls-to-7bn

K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 16 Oct 2016 15:54

baki govt has improved economic indexes than 2013
Govt missed IMF external debt targets by $14 billion- tribune pk
The PML-N government has, over the past three years, borrowed $14 billion more than the projections the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made three years back as authorities have failed to increase exports and attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

By the end of fiscal year 2015-16, the government’s external borrowings stood at $73 billion, $14.2 billion more than the projections IMF made in 2013 before approving the three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan

exports remain a whopping $10.2 billion below IMF projections while FDI fell short of the lender’s estimates by $3 billion, according to the IMF report.

IMF had projected that at the end of its three-year programme, external debt as a percentage of total exports would be 156%, down from 204% in 2013. However, the external debt to exports ratio went up to 265.8% due to decrease in exports and subsequent increase in debt, the IMF report shows.

K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 16 Oct 2016 16:07

Large hearted baki govt to borrow money to help tax payers

Govt plans to borrow money to return outstanding tax refunds- tribune pk

The government may return less than one-fifth of the outstanding tax refunds worth Rs205 billion in the first phase by borrowing money at commercial terms

The government on Saturday also discussed the possibility of returning Rs35 billion to Rs40 billion sales tax refunds in the first phase, but only to textile exporters. The amount will be paid before the end of the current month, according to officials.

The FBR does not have a plan to pay income tax refunds that are mounting after the government introduced dozens of new withholding taxes, they added.

The FBR has already set up a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to retire the refunds – a move that has been widely criticised, as taxes cannot be generated by borrowing from markets. The intention of creating the new company is to keep borrowings outside the budget, thereby reducing its deficit and protecting revenue.

The government will pay an interest rate equivalent to Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) plus at least 1% on the amount that it will raise to return the refunds.

A footnote in the IMF report states, “the total stock of outstanding tax refunds claims, increased to Rs205 billion in June 2016, from Rs200 billion in June 2015”

The delay in payments of refunds has created a liquidity issue for the industries. People are forced to borrow money to meet their working capital requirements. Over the last three years, the federal government has blocked taxpayers’ refunds to artificially inflate tax revenues in order to meet IMF targets.

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Oct 2016 16:44

Deleted - Wrong Thread.

Cheers
Last edited by Peregrine on 16 Oct 2016 19:45, edited 1 time in total.

Philip
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Philip » 16 Oct 2016 19:22

Though there are some errors in this article (the Airbus tanker deal is off,most likely new upgraded Il-78s) and omissions,FGFA,extra Akula/SSNs,frigates,etc.,Pak simply cannot match India's wallet when it comes to defence spending.Even its so-called M-weapons programme can be outstripped by India if it wishes to do so,but is very wisely,unlike Pak and its so-called tactical-nuke-use policy),which is a kin to a bankrupt beggar
standing in the sweet corn sicken soup queue in Beijing!

The Paki navy chief has just warned India that he will teach us a lesson as he will spend $1.5B every year on his bumboat navy. He seems to have forgotten Karachi '71 and the fact that we've now gotten far more fearsome BMos missiles ,apart from Klub,Uran.etc.just itching to send his fleet packing to Davy Jones' locker at the hint of the next major Paki terror outrage/mil misadventure against India.In retrospect,the Pathankot and Uri attacks were the best move by Pak in decades.It rudely awakened the lethargic babus in South Block and others who wished nothing but goodwill towards Pak. With the entire country enraged and calling for blood,the surgical strikes were brilliantly conducted and now long-awaited major defence deals are being concluded on a war footing.

Any attempt by Pak to try and match India's deep pockets will result in further impoverishment of the "mother ship of terror',as Mr .Modi has so succinctly out it at the BRICS summit,which will lead to enormous internal unrest and the unravelling of the Paki state.Al we ned to do is to further fund the Baluchis and Afghans so that Pak is encircled by serious unrest ,tying down a large part of its uniformed pigs weakening its forces ranged across the LOC/intl border.

http://defencenews.in/article/Paranoia- ... bated-8752
Paranoia grips Pakistan :: Indian Arms buying spree unabated
Sunday, October 16, 2016
By: Defence News

The Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has mapped out that India needs $233 billion to meet its weapons and equipment requirements in 11 years. This has been calculated according to the Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP) for 2012-2027. The Indian weapon purchases are so massive and diversified that it would require several research papers to explain them.

The following is only a brief attempt in that direction.

According to reports, from 2004 to 2014, 75 percent of all of New Delhi’s weapons imports came from Russia. This is understandable considering the relationship between the two countries and the kind of weapon systems used by India.

From 2009 to 2013, India and Russia struck defence deals of around US$30 billion. On the other hand, during the same period, the Indian government signed contracts worth $30 billion with France and $11 billion with the United States. These were besides what the Indian government had signed with Israel and other countries. This means that in only four years, the Indian government had signed contracts more than US$70 billion with only three countries.

The figures are staggering.

Again, from 2012-2013 to 2014-2015 fiscal years, 162 arms purchase contracts were signed by India, among them 67 with other countries, including Russia (18 agreements), the United States (13) and France (six). The Russian defence deals with India exceeded over $5 billion and with the United States around $4.4 billion.

The kind of weapon systems that India plans to purchase is stupefying and scary.

The Indian Army wants to equip all of its 382 infantry battalions and 44 mechanized infantry units with a fourth-generation shoulder-fired fire and forget anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system. So India is procuring 321 ‘Spike’ systems, along with 8,356 missiles, from Israel. India is also purchasing one medium-range surface-to-air missile (MRSAM) regiment, composed of 18 firing units, from Israel that is known of manufacturing state-of-the-art weapon systems.

It has been reported that US defense contractor Boeing alone has won bids to supply the Indian military with 10 C-17 Globemaster-III strategic airlift aircraft (worth $4.1 billion), eight P-8I maritime patrol aircraft (worth $2.1. billion), 22 AH-64E Apache, and 15 CH-47F Chinook helicopters (both helicopter deals have a combined worth of $2.5 billion).

Moreover, the French aircraft maker Dassault Aviation has finalised a contract for the sale of 36 Rafale fourth-generation multirole fighter jets to the Indian Air Force at an estimated cost of $9 billion. The European defense contractor EADS will supply six Airbus A330 Multirole Tanker Transport aircraft for the IAF for $1 billion.*(Deal cancelled,most prob. IL-78s,and not to mention the second line of single-engined light fighters!)

India's planned major naval assets include 24 submarines over a period of 30 years. Six Scorpene class are being built at the Mazagaon Docks. All six are expected to join the Indian Navy by 2020. Purchase of six more was cleared in 2015. The next decade will see India fielding 3 Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups effectively enforcing pure dominance in the Indian Ocean Region.*(At least one extra Akula and 6 SSNs in the pipeline too)

Not to forget is the license production for Kamov 226 helicopters in India, purchase of 145 ultralight howitzer artillery guns from US, purchase of 100 155mm tracked artillery guns, purchase of 280 aero engines from Honeywell for Jaguar aircraft and purchase of five units of Russian-made S-400 advanced air defense systems that can effectively stop all Pakistani ballistic nuclear missiles.

Conclusion ::

Pakistan is insanely worried about the kind of money being thrown around by India for weapon systems which the Islamic Nation of Pakistan cannot possibly match even in their dreams. It has thus resorted to an intensive Proxy War with India confined mainly to the state of Kashmir as it cannot match India man-to-man and penny-to-penny.

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Oct 2016 19:12

Indians stop selling cotton to Pakistan

THE textile industry is in a dilemma as cotton trade between Pakistan and India has been hit by a rise in border tension; and traders across the border, being uncertain of future developments, are not entering into new deals.

Pakistan’s Cotton Commissioner Khalid Abdullah says a low quantum of trade activity is still taking place. The government has not asked importers to stop buying cotton from India but many of them are not buying on their own as a gesture of national solidarity. However, Indian exporters are refusing to sell at their government’s behest although they would be the losers.

Pakistani spinners are the biggest buyers of Indian fibre. Fewer imports by Pakistan this year could hurt Indian exports, raise their prices and help rival cotton exporters like Brazil, the United States and some African countries. For Pakistan’s industry, buying the raw material from other sources may prove costly owing to long distance freight. In fact, the situation is in a wait-and see mode. Cotton trade between the two countries is worth $822m a year.

Pakistan’s Cotton Commissioner Khalid Abdullah says a low quantum of cotton trade activity is still taking place
Another victim of high political temperature is vegetables. According to Times of India, traders from the Indian state of Gujarat have decided to stop supplying vegetables to Pakistan.

Gujarat used to send 50 trucks having 10 tonnes of vegetables, mainly tomatoes and chilli, to Pakistan via the Wagah border. This is the first time in almost two decades that Gujarat’s exporters have halted the supply of essential vegetables to Pakistan. The commission agents say they will not resume exports till the normalisation of relations.

The suspension in cotton trade comes at a time when Pakistan’s cotton crop has recorded an overall decrease of 15pc over the last year, adding to the industry’s woes. Pakistan, the world’s third-largest cotton consumer, starts importing from September, but this time there has been little activity so far.

In the 2015-16 fiscal year ending on March 31 in India, official trade between the two was $2.6bn with cotton being a major component. However, in the crop year that ended on September 30, Pakistan was India’s biggest cotton buyer after its own crop was hit by drought and whitefly pest. According to an estimate, Pakistan will need to import at least three million bales in 2016-17.

The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC), on Oct 7, estimated that the output for 2016-17 stood at 11.039m bales. Participants were informed that the lower output was mainly due to effects of climate change on the crop, besides pests like pink bollworm and whitefly. The crop output in Punjab is estimated at 7.3m bales, with each bale weighing 170 kilograms.The crop size of Sindh is estimated at 3.7m bales.

The representative of growers from Punjab agreed to the assessment whereas the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association chairman was of the opinion that the crop size in Punjab was about 7.5-8m bales. Cotton sowing has registered a decrease of 21pc in Punjab while it has risen by 2pc in Sindh. The crop size is assessed on the basis of data provided by provincial governments.

Meanwhile, Afghan President’s special envoy and Ambassador to Pakistan, Dr Omar Zakhilwal, has refuted reports that Kabul has shut down the land route for Pakistani trucks going to Central Asian states through its territory. Ashraf Ghani had threatened, last month, to shut Pakistan’s transit route to Central Asian countries if it did not allow Afghan traders to use the Wagah border for trade with India. Pakistani trucks, the envoy says, can deliver transit goods directly to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan via Afghanistan.

It is interesting to note that in a highly charged political atmosphere, trade in other commodity goods has not been affected. The inward flow of Indian goods into Karachi’s major commodity and grocery markets, in old city areas which form the hub of the country’s wholesale trade, continues uninterrupted without any increase in prices or shortage of goods.

Shopkeepers selling Indian cosmetics and jewellery are doing business as usual because of their smooth flow and easy availability. The war-like situation has not affected their business. Not only is the arrival of goods from India normal, even exports are taking place at the usual pace. Pulses, spices and dried fruits continue to land in Pakistan, with these items not having faced any shortage in the wholesale market so far.

Trade balance between the two countries is in favour of India. In 2015-2016, exports from Pakistan to India dropped to $400m from $415m in 2014-2015. India’s exports to Pakistan surged 27pc to $1.8bn over the same period.

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) Punjab Chairman Aamir Fayyaz says that since now the textile industry has become highly dependent on imported cotton, duties and taxes on import of cotton would make the entire value chain uncompetitive. The situation calls for the withdrawal of 4pc customs duty and 5pc sales tax on the import of cotton. He wants the government to resolve the textile industry’s issues and enable it to undertake investment worth $1bn per annum.
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K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 20 Oct 2016 08:40

What the articles on Indo baki trade don't mention is that the global export of bakistan is dependent on imports from India. In the absence of imports from India, export from bakistan will go down by a huge margin.

Prem
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 20 Oct 2016 09:48

In three years, Pakistan has taken on $25b in fresh loans
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1203863/ext ... esh-loans/

SLAMABAD: In its three-year stint, the PML-N government has obtained $25 billion as fresh foreign loans in addition to borrowing Rs3.1 trillion ($30 billion) from the domestic market for budget financing, said Ehtesham Rashid, Director General of the Debt Office at the Ministry of Finance Wednesday.In dollar terms, the government’s total domestic and foreign borrowings amounted to $55 billion during the last three years. However, the impact of domestic borrowing is not as adverse as that of foreign borrowings due to the liberty of printing rupee amid inflation that remains under control.Out of the $25 billion in foreign loans the government has obtained from June 2013 to June 2016, an amount of $11.95 billion was spent in repayment of previous loans, said Rashid.There was a net addition of $5.6 billion in the country’s external debt during the last fiscal year 2015-16, showing a growth of 28.2% over the increase in foreign debt in 2014-15, according to the Finance Ministry. Similarly, in 2014-15, the net increase in debt was $4.42 billion, higher by 53% over the increase reported in the preceding year. During the last three years, the government paid $2.74 billion in interest on foreign loans.A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed that Pakistan’s external debt was primarily increasing because of the government’s inability to enhance exports and attract foreign direct investment.The much-touted ‘highest-ever’ foreign currency reserves have largely been built by obtaining expensive foreign loans, which according to independent economists is not a sustainable way to increase reserves.

Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 20 Oct 2016 14:12

Peregrine wrote:Indians stop selling cotton to Pakistan

THE textile industry is in a dilemma as cotton trade between Pakistan and India has been hit by a rise in border tension; and traders across the border, being uncertain of future developments, are not entering into new deals.

Pakistan’s Cotton Commissioner Khalid Abdullah says a low quantum of trade activity is still taking place. The government has not asked importers to stop buying cotton from India but many of them are not buying on their own as a gesture of national solidarity. However, Indian exporters are refusing to sell at their government’s behest although they would be the losers.

Pakistani spinners are the biggest buyers of Indian fibre. Fewer imports by Pakistan this year could hurt Indian exports, raise their prices and help rival cotton exporters like Brazil, the United States and some African countries. For Pakistan’s industry, buying the raw material from other sources may prove costly owing to long distance freight. In fact, the situation is in a wait-and see mode. Cotton trade between the two countries is worth $822m a year.

Pakistan’s Cotton Commissioner Khalid Abdullah says a low quantum of cotton trade activity is still taking place
Another victim of high political temperature is vegetables. According to Times of India, traders from the Indian state of Gujarat have decided to stop supplying vegetables to Pakistan.

Gujarat used to send 50 trucks having 10 tonnes of vegetables, mainly tomatoes and chilli, to Pakistan via the Wagah border. This is the first time in almost two decades that Gujarat’s exporters have halted the supply of essential vegetables to Pakistan. The commission agents say they will not resume exports till the normalisation of relations.

The suspension in cotton trade comes at a time when Pakistan’s cotton crop has recorded an overall decrease of 15pc over the last year, adding to the industry’s woes. Pakistan, the world’s third-largest cotton consumer, starts importing from September, but this time there has been little activity so far.

In the 2015-16 fiscal year ending on March 31 in India, official trade between the two was $2.6bn with cotton being a major component. However, in the crop year that ended on September 30, Pakistan was India’s biggest cotton buyer after its own crop was hit by drought and whitefly pest. According to an estimate, Pakistan will need to import at least three million bales in 2016-17.

The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC), on Oct 7, estimated that the output for 2016-17 stood at 11.039m bales. Participants were informed that the lower output was mainly due to effects of climate change on the crop, besides pests like pink bollworm and whitefly. The crop output in Punjab is estimated at 7.3m bales, with each bale weighing 170 kilograms.The crop size of Sindh is estimated at 3.7m bales.

The representative of growers from Punjab agreed to the assessment whereas the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association chairman was of the opinion that the crop size in Punjab was about 7.5-8m bales. Cotton sowing has registered a decrease of 21pc in Punjab while it has risen by 2pc in Sindh. The crop size is assessed on the basis of data provided by provincial governments.

Meanwhile, Afghan President’s special envoy and Ambassador to Pakistan, Dr Omar Zakhilwal, has refuted reports that Kabul has shut down the land route for Pakistani trucks going to Central Asian states through its territory. Ashraf Ghani had threatened, last month, to shut Pakistan’s transit route to Central Asian countries if it did not allow Afghan traders to use the Wagah border for trade with India. Pakistani trucks, the envoy says, can deliver transit goods directly to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan via Afghanistan.

It is interesting to note that in a highly charged political atmosphere, trade in other commodity goods has not been affected. The inward flow of Indian goods into Karachi’s major commodity and grocery markets, in old city areas which form the hub of the country’s wholesale trade, continues uninterrupted without any increase in prices or shortage of goods.

Shopkeepers selling Indian cosmetics and jewellery are doing business as usual because of their smooth flow and easy availability. The war-like situation has not affected their business. Not only is the arrival of goods from India normal, even exports are taking place at the usual pace. Pulses, spices and dried fruits continue to land in Pakistan, with these items not having faced any shortage in the wholesale market so far.

Trade balance between the two countries is in favour of India. In 2015-2016, exports from Pakistan to India dropped to $400m from $415m in 2014-2015. India’s exports to Pakistan surged 27pc to $1.8bn over the same period.

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) Punjab Chairman Aamir Fayyaz says that since now the textile industry has become highly dependent on imported cotton, duties and taxes on import of cotton would make the entire value chain uncompetitive. The situation calls for the withdrawal of 4pc customs duty and 5pc sales tax on the import of cotton. He wants the government to resolve the textile industry’s issues and enable it to undertake investment worth $1bn per annum.
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I think Pakistan can save a lot of power and wasteful expenditure by Shutting down their Textile industry.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 21 Oct 2016 20:59

Gas shortages set to rise despite LNG imports- yawn news

Domestic consumers in Punjab will face severe gas shortages during the upcoming winter due to the curtailment of supply from 10pm to 5am daily.
Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi told that the worst year of gas shortages for consumers in Punjab had started.
The brunt of any curtailment, therefore, falls on Punjab since it has to do with whatever gas is left in the system after consumption by domestic, commercial and industrial cosumers in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

He said that despite importing liquefied natural gas (LNG), the gas shortfall remained significant and the costly imported LNG would be consumed mainly by industrial consumers.

The minister said that the gas shortfall for domestic consumers was 40 per cent on the system of Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) at present, which would further increase in the coming days.

SNGPL officials told media that the peak estimated in Punjab and KP was 1.45 billion cubic feet daily, whereas the average supply of gas is between 800 and 900 million cubic feet daily.

“But there are chances that the demand will go up as more areas are being covered by the SNGPL network whereas the supply usually declines in winter months that see peak demand.”

They listed various reasons for this, including technical reasons, as the gas flow is reduced due to a decling in temperature.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 21 Oct 2016 21:33

All bids for baki infra bonds (bibs) rejected- yawn news

All bids for Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) were rejected on Wednesday as investors asked for higher returns. Investors said banks are not interested in long-term investment because the trading of PIBs in the secondary market is not attractive.

“The margin of profit in the secondary market for PIBs has dropped sharply while investors holding a large chunk of PIBs are feeling stuck,” said the director of an investment company.

Investors said the banks did not show any interest in long-term PIBs. Their bids for three-year PIBs amounted to Rs63 billion while they were Rs10bn and Rs2bn for five-year and 10-year PIBs, respectively.


Foreign investment drops 38pc as inflows from China slow down- yawn news

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) declined 38 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016-17, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Monday.

Pakistan has been facing a continuous decline in foreign investment for the last several years. It touched another low in the first quarter of the fiscal year, as it declined to just $249 million compared to $403m a year ago.

In September, FDI fell to just $136m, indicating that the investment situation has yet to improve. FDI was $162m in September 2015.

Pakistan has been accumulating foreign debt to improve its foreign exchange reserves, which have risen to $24 billion. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that future debt repayment obligations can have serious implications for economic stability.

Currency experts said record-high reserves have kept the exchange rate stable for more than a year. The SBP governor recently said debt servicing will be around $5bn until 2020, which means Pakistan still has three years to improve its external sector in order to make higher repayments beginning with 2021

While foreign investment has been declining, the outflow of funds from Pakistan as repatriation of profits and dividends has started gaining momentum.

The outflow in July-August jumped 75pc to $205m, indicating that the rise can be in the range of $1.3bn-$1.5bn for the current fiscal year.

The SBP reported that the overall foreign private investment, which includes portfolio investment, also declined 11pc year-on-year to $277m in July-September.

Although China was the single largest investor in the first quarter of 2016-17, its investment was still less than 50pc of FDI received during the same period of the last fiscal year. FDI from China in July-September of 2015 amounted to $192m.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 21 Oct 2016 21:41

July-September: Current account deficit widens 136% - tribune pk

Pakistan’s current account deficit widened by 136% in the first quarter (Jul-Sep) of 2016-17, increasing to $1.37 billion on a year-on-year basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

The 136% increase means the deficit more than doubled from $579 million to $1.37 billion, raising further questions on the country’s balance of payments position in the medium- to long-term.

As a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the current account deficit widened to -1.7% in first quarter of 2016-17 as opposed to -0.8% in the same period of the last fiscal year.

Pakistan exported goods worth $5.04 billion in first quarter of 2016-17 as opposed to exports totalling $5.31 billion in the comparable period of fiscal year 2015-16, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5%. The value of goods exported in September 2016 was recorded at $1.69 billion, down 9.2% compared to $1.85 in August 2016.

Pakistan’s total imports of goods in the first quarter of 2016-17 were $10.2 billion as opposed to $10.07 billion in the comparable period of 2015-16, which means an annual decrease of 1.28%. On a month-on-month basis, the value of goods imported decreased by 17.5%, as Pakistan imported goods valuing $3.21 billion in Sept 2016 compared to $3.89 billion in Sept 2015.

Balance of trade in both goods and services at the end first quarter clocked up at -$6.08 billion compared to the deficit of $5.11 billion recorded in the same period of the preceding fiscal year.

Workers’ remittances remained $4.69 billion in first quarter of 2016-17, down 5.4% from the same period of the last fiscal year when they totalled $4.96 billion.


Analysts say declining exports and slowdown in remittances are going to create major problems for the government.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 21 Oct 2016 21:48

Losses of PIA, PSM, Railways surge to Rs705bn in 3 years- tribune pk

The losses incurred by three major public sector entities (PSEs) — the Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Railways and Pakistan Steel Mills — have surged to about Rs705 billion in three years despite continuous injection of funds into the organisations.

This is in addition to around Rs660bn debt piled up in the accounts of power sector companies, of which Rs348bn has been accumulated in three years, even though consumer tariffs have repeatedly been increased.

The revival of the loss-making PSEs was one of the central themes of a three-year economic reforms programme.

Put together, the cumulative losses incurred by the three PSEs and the power sector companies have increased to Rs1.365 trillion, which is more than the country’s consolidated annual development programme of Rs1.25 trillion for the current year.

This has been revealed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its ‘scorecard’ of Pakistan’s structural reforms programme launched under its three-year Extended Fund Facility, which concluded on September 30.

The IMF also put on record that the losses incurred by the country’s natural gas sector increased to 11.5 per cent in three years, showing an increase of 1.4pc since the government joined the IMF programme in September 2013. In monetary terms, the annual loss of the natural gas system increased by about Rs6bn. The gas tariff was increased by 20pc during the period.

The IMF said the government promised to increase the tariff again in the current month.

The IMF said the cost of electricity delivered to consumers was increased by about 35pc to Rs11.9 per unit by increasing the base tariff and introducing a series of surcharges.

Outages for industrial sector dropped from nine hours to one hour per day.

Electricity outages for urban consumers dropped to five hours per day from eight hours in 2013.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 21 Oct 2016 22:01

CPEC Special

CPEC snags on solar- yawn news

The original upfront solar tariff that Nepra had granted was one of the highest in the world, and was based entirely on cost structures provided by one party — the QAS (Pvt) Ltd, which is a joint venture between the government of Punjab and a Chinese group.

That party is now enjoying the benefits of an extraordinary Rs17 per unit tariff, where the competitive price of solar in the world today is closer to Rs4. Meanwhile, all the other parties that were in the queue for that tariff are today licking their wounds.



Another CPEC project- flagship Gwadar now not sailing smooth

In revised offer, China wants to work as construction contractor in Gwadar- tribune pk

China has withdrawn its offer of setting up a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Gwadar Port on the build-and-operate model and now wants to work as an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor for the project.

“In response to the revision of offer by China, Pakistan will own and operate the terminal and award EPC contract to the Chinese company working on the Gwadar LNG pipeline project under a government-to-government arrangement,” an official told The Express Tribune.

The Exim Bank of China will provide financing at the rate of London Inter-bank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 2%

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rudradev » 22 Oct 2016 03:23

When the habitual charsi/drunkard's credit falls below a certain minimum threshold, his only option is to go to the loanshark. Only one of these two parties is actually "higher than a mountain" (while supplies last) or "deeper than the ocean" (in debt).

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 22 Oct 2016 04:49

K Mehta wrote:“In response to the revision of offer by China, Pakistan will own and operate the terminal and award EPC contract to the Chinese company working on the Gwadar LNG pipeline project under a government-to-government arrangement,” an official told The Express Tribune. The Exim Bank of China will provide financing at the rate of London Inter-bank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 2%


Let me get this right.

Exim Bank of China will provide a recourse loan to the bakis (based on baki payment, interest and completion guaranties - probably sovereign) to pay a Chinese company which will hire chinese workers and use chinese materials to build the terminal on land owned by the bakis. Therefore, in a nutshell, the Chinese are paying the chinese, using chinese capital to keep the chinese workers and manufacturers employed but the loan is a recourse to the bakis. So, if the bakis fail to repay and default on the note, the chinese bank will have the lien to the terminal, and by extension, own the note on the land. That's one heck of a deal.

Suckers!

Oh, by the way, like I said earlier, CPEC was never an investment. It's a back door loan, plain and simple. CPEC is a land grab scheme.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 22 Oct 2016 04:56

Chinese will be selling paki old used Maal which they do not use any more . 2nd Hand Stuff for 6th grade lone Stupid Asian state called Pakistan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Nikhil T » 22 Oct 2016 06:10

anupmisra wrote:
K Mehta wrote:“In response to the revision of offer by China, Pakistan will own and operate the terminal and award EPC contract to the Chinese company working on the Gwadar LNG pipeline project under a government-to-government arrangement,” an official told The Express Tribune. The Exim Bank of China will provide financing at the rate of London Inter-bank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 2%


Let me get this right.

Exim Bank of China will provide a recourse loan to the bakis (based on baki payment, interest and completion guaranties - probably sovereign) to pay a Chinese company which will hire chinese workers and use chinese materials to build the terminal on land owned by the bakis. Therefore, in a nutshell, the Chinese are paying the chinese, using chinese capital to keep the chinese workers and manufacturers employed but the loan is a recourse to the bakis. So, if the bakis fail to repay and default on the note, the chinese bank will have the lien to the terminal, and by extension, own the note on the land. That's one heck of a deal.

Suckers!

Oh, by the way, like I said earlier, CPEC was never an investment. It's a back door loan, plain and simple. CPEC is a land grab scheme.


Not to spoil the party but this is typically how Exim Bank (short for 'Export-Import') deals work. Every country has a Exim Bank where funding is contingent on using the same country's vendors. This is concessional, assured financing to sweeten the deal in return for guaranteed jobs. The country getting the loan (e.g. TSP in this case) must do due diligence that the project is economical and has a ROI.
E.g. US Exim Bank provided $8bn to India because we chose Westinghouse nuclear reactors.

I doubt Gwadar LNG port is economical since TSP has no real industry beyond Sharif/Bhutto/Gernail owned fertilizer plants.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 22 Oct 2016 07:43

Nikhil T wrote:Not to spoil the party but this is typically how Exim Bank (short for 'Export-Import') deals work.


Chinese Exim Bank does not not conform to OECD requirements. US Exim does and is an independent agency. And I thought Exim meant Exhale and then Impale.

Anyway, OT.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Oct 2016 17:33

anupmisra wrote:
Let me get this right.

Exim Bank of China will provide a recourse loan to the bakis (based on baki payment, interest and completion guaranties - probably sovereign) to pay a Chinese company which will hire chinese workers and use chinese materials to build the terminal on land owned by the bakis. Therefore, in a nutshell, the Chinese are paying the chinese, using chinese capital to keep the chinese workers and manufacturers employed but the loan is a recourse to the bakis. So, if the bakis fail to repay and default on the note, the chinese bank will have the lien to the terminal, and by extension, own the note on the land. That's one heck of a deal.

Suckers!

Oh, by the way, like I said earlier, CPEC was never an investment. It's a back door loan, plain and simple. CPEC is a land grab scheme

Not to spoil the party but this is typically how Exim Bank (short for 'Export-Import') deals work. Every country has a Exim Bank where funding is contingent on using the same country's vendors. This is concessional, assured financing to sweeten the deal in return for guaranteed jobs. The country getting the loan (e.g. TSP in this case) must do due diligence that the project is economical and has a ROI.
E.g. US Exim Bank provided $8bn to India because we chose Westinghouse nuclear reactors.

Nikhil T wrote:I doubt Gwadar LNG port is economical since TSP has no real industry beyond Sharif/Bhutto/Gernail owned fertilizer plants.

Nikhil T Ji :

The Gwadar Port will not have a proper LNG Terminal but will Rent an LNG Ship which in addition to carrying and discharging the cargo of LNG has a "Processing-Regassification" Plant on the vessel to "Regassify" the LNG prior to discharge. Hiring this vessel will cost far more than to build a shore based LNG receiving Terminal which receives the LNG in the form of LNG and then Re-gassify at a Dedicated shore Facility.

This is a costly process as the Cwapistanis are using this Floating LNG Vessel to carry the LNG from Qatar and then Re-gassify prior to Discharge in Gwadar and there is similar facility in Port Qasim-Karachi for the simple reason that when this Vessel completes discharging the cargo it will then return to Qatar and thus for the period of its Return Trip there is NO REGASSIFYING TERMINAL at PQ-Karachi.

Thank God the Indians have built proper LNG Receiving Terminals of the LNG Cargo which is stored in Huge LNG Tanks. This cargo goes through the "Re-Gassifying" Plant which converts the LNG to "Natural Gas".
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 22 Oct 2016 18:00

Nikhilji, the point being made is that the terms of the loan are not "friendly terms" but usual chodhary-lalaji like and also bakistan plans to default on the loan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Nikhil T » 23 Oct 2016 12:22

anupmisra wrote:Chinese Exim Bank does not not conform to OECD requirements. US Exim does and is an independent agency.

So? Does our Indian Exim Bank conform to OECD requirements? And how's OECD requirement even relevant. The point I made was TSP's LNG terminal is a bad decision economically. No doubt, China is benefiting out of it. But it isn't unusual for Exim Banks to finance only when their country's vendors are given a contract.

anupmisra wrote:And I thought Exim meant Exhale and then Impale.

Yep, I thought so.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby RCase » 23 Oct 2016 12:56

Rudradev wrote:When the habitual charsi/drunkard's credit falls below a certain minimum threshold, his only option is to go to the loanshark. Only one of these two parties is actually "higher than a mountain" (while supplies last) or "deeper than the ocean" (in debt).


It is only a matter of time when the Baki economy tanks and hits the depths of the oceans, while staring at paying back debts that are higher than the Himalayas.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rammpal » 24 Oct 2016 08:57

"...I doubt Gwadar LNG port is economical since TSP has no real industry beyond Sharif/Bhutto/Gernail owned fertilizer plants...."


http://www.gee-21.org/publications/Deve ... kistan.pdf

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Falijee » 24 Oct 2016 16:42

Pakistan out of economic crisis, says IMF's Lagarde :eek:

No mention of the looming debt repayment ( short term and long term ) that is going to be a burden for decades to come !

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Yogi_G » 24 Oct 2016 18:03

Falijee wrote:Pakistan out of economic crisis, says IMF's Lagarde :eek:

No mention of the looming debt repayment ( short term and long term ) that is going to be a burden for decades to come !



Not surprised here, with TSPA tightening noose on Nawaz through Imran it was for the west to somehow keep him alive with some good news generated. Nawaz at his strongest mandate since 1997, Pak economy improving etc etc are all temporary props. Pig. Lipstick.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Oct 2016 17:03

As Imran Khan plans protest, $3.4 billion wiped off of Pakistan stock market

NEW DELHI: More than jittery over cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan's plans to shut down Islamabad next week, as much as $3.35 billion has already been wiped off from Pakistan's stock market, reports The Express Tribune newspaper.

With massive protests, Imran's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party plans to bring Pakistan's capital to a standstill on November 2, to protest the alleged lack of transparency in the Nawaz Sharif-led government . Sharif has been implicated in the Panama Papers leak .

"Since hitting its record high on October 20, 2016, the benchmark-100 index has retreated 1,558.64 points, down 3.75% during the course of five trading sessions that wiped off over Rs 353.65 billion," the newspaper wrote.

Imran's had success in shutdowns in the past. He led a similar protest in the latter half of 2014, shutting down parts of Islamabad for as long as four months.

The selloff in the stock market halted the 26.6% gain seen in the KSE-100 index - akin to India's Sensex - in fewer than 10 months. And the push to sell has only increased since Pakistan Awami Tehreek chairman Allama Tahir ul Qadri said he will join PTI's protest.

"Increasing political uncertainty, as (the) date of PTI protests in Islamabad approaches, remains the main reason of nervousness among investors," said Muhammad Shamoon Tariq, a partner at the Sweden-based Tundra Fonder, which has assets under management in Pakistan worth $150 million, to The Express Tribune. "The situation is exacerbated with religious parties joining the protest," Tariq added.

Tariq said that a few other crucial developments on the political front are also making investors jittery.

"Markets are always scared of uncertainty and in the current protest call of PTI, no one is very sure of the outcome. The timing of these protests is also significant as the new Army chief's appointment is still pending," Tariq told the Pakistani newspaper, referring to the upcoming end of tenure of General Raheel Sharif.

"Political noise always has a greater impact on equities than any other news flow. The locking down of the capital where all the government machinery, foreign diplomats and foreign institutions reside is certainly the most important factor in the investors' minds right now," he added.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Falijee » 29 Oct 2016 03:50

FPCCI hints at reviewing should suspend trade ties with India
KARACHI: The Federa­tion of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) on Thursday said it would consider suspending trade with India if the situation did not improve soon.FPCCI president Abdul Rauf Alam said that Pakistan had no compulsions of any sort to continue business and trade relations with India under the current hostile conditions. The entire Pakistani business community, he said, was united to take any decision and given the tense situation in the region, it was not possible to continue trade relations with India.

FPCCI is obviously a mouthpiece of the Paki Govt ; no surprise here !
He pointed out the role of the Saarc Chamber of Com­m­erce and Industry and said that it left them with no choice but to promote trade relations(euphemism for more "freebies" ) with ECO and D-8 countries.
The Kalabagh dam and the China-Pakistan Econo­mic Corridor (CPEC) were also facing controversies and losing such opportunities could be damaging for the country, said Mr Alam, adding that the CPEC was a game-changer, but there was little awareness among the business community about the project. (business community should "forget" about CPEC ; the so-called benefits of this project, if any, are "strictly reserved" for the Paki Fauj and its myriad commercial interests !)
Mr Alam was of the opinion that without making payments of outstanding sales tax refunds to exporters, the country would not progress and falling exports would also not improve.
(IOW what he is saying that the "insolvent" Paki Govt does not have the monies to refund to these exporters !)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ranjan.rao » 29 Oct 2016 05:09


just to put it in contxt it is close to 4% of total market cap....

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rammpal » 29 Oct 2016 06:49

What's Modiji's strategy to economically ísolate'Bak-istan ?


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