Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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kit
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kit »

Anujan wrote:^^^
I'm sure he'll get a hero's reception. After all, it's the US which installed this regime after conspiring to get rid of Kaptaan. :wink:
wont be surprised if that was a joint Chini US operation
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.geo.tv/latest/413293-petrol ... ine-months
Petroleum bill swells by double in nine months
Mehtab Haider, Apr 24 2022

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s petroleum import bill for nine months of the current fiscal year doubled to $15 billion from $7.5 billion in the same period during the last fiscal year, mainly because of soaring international prices and a steadily surging consumer demand, The News reported Sunday, citing data.
The price of petroleum products for Pakistan swelled twice the amount in dollar terms, but the former PTI-led government and the incumbent PML-N government still preferred to keep prices at existing levels, which caused losses on both internal and external accounts.
Such a grave situation requires the conservation of petroleum products in order to curtail the import bill, but the ruling elites and policymakers stay unaffected, the publication reported.
Despite being fully aware that the country is sliding towards bankruptcy and default, they prefer to gain political mileage at the cost of economy, the report stated.
It was unwise of the PTI-led government to freeze fuel and power prices till June 2022 at the cost of Rs400 billion as subsidy.
However, the new PM Shehbaz Sharif government also preferred to keep petroleum prices unchanged in an attempt to take populist measures to appease voters.
The current account deficit touched over $1 billion mark in March 2022 clearly indicating it was a totally unsustainable level.
The current account deficit reached $13.2 billion for the first nine months (July-March) period of the current fiscal year.
Pakistan’s renowned economist Dr Hafiz A Pasha sees the current account deficit around $19 to $20 billion for this fiscal year.
However, the official sources said the government procured four LNG containers at a rate of $27 per mmbtu so it would have total cost of approximately $350 million. This needs detailed analysis how much it is going to cost per unit electricity when the LNG is purchased at highest rates.
.....
Gautam
But Allah Almighty is going to save Pakistan:
https://www.geo.tv/latest/413288-over-8 ... -this-year
Over 80,000 Pakistanis to perform Hajj this year
Apr 24 2022
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Apparently Pakis have managed to secure 8 Billion $ in loans, repayment deferral for a year from IMF, and 1.8B from world bank in addition to the 8 billion $ from IMF.

Pakis live to see another day.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vinu »


We had very productive meetings with the Finance Minister of Pakistan Miftah Ismail over Pakistan’s economic developments and policies under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. We agreed that prompt action is needed to reverse the unfunded subsidies which have slowed discussions for the 7th review. Based on the constructive discussions with the authorities in Washington, the IMF expects to field a mission to Pakistan in May to resume discussions over policies for completing the 7th EFF review. The authorities have also requested the IMF to extend the EFF arrangement through June 2023 as a signal of their commitment to address existing challenges and achieve the program objectives.
Link:

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... n-Pakistan

IMF is asking to remove fuel subsidies to secure the mentioned loan package. Iron brother has already shut-down power generation. Interesting to see the reactions of Mango Abduls when they found their imported government is going to raise fuel price.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Current account deficit doubles in March to $1bn
KARACHI: The country’s current account deficit almost doubled in March to $1 billion compared to the preceding month, taking the total gap during the first nine months (July-March) of the ongoing fiscal year to over $13 billion.

The latest data issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Saturday could be shocking for the new government, which is in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for the release of $1 billion.
The State Bank reported that the balance on trade in goods and services during July-March was in a deficit of $33.276bn compared to the $21.292bn deficit in the year-ago period.

These twin deficits would keep the new government restless while it requires multiple measures to get a hold of the situation.

A steep fall in the SBP-led foreign exchange reserves — currently at $10.8bn — allows speculators to destabilise the exchange rate.

Besides, to arrest galloping inflation, the interest rate was recently increased by 250 basis points to 12.25pc, and a further hike is expected.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Really disappointed with AAM Abduls, time to Import more luxury perfumes etc, common make the PKR to do a monthly 50% depreciation please
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Electricity crisis worsens as shortfall hits 7,468MW
LAHORE: With an increase in temperatures, the energy crisis has worsened in the country, with the power shortfall reaching 7,468MW on Monday, and resulting in up to 10-18 hours of loadshedding in the country.

Shutdown of power plants is being blamed for the fuel shortage and technical reasons for shortfall in electricity generation. The total power generation presently stands at 18,031MW, while the demand hovers around 25,500MW. As many as 3,674 megawatts of electricity is being produced from hydropower, while government thermal power plants are generating only 786MW. In contrast, private power producers are contributing 9,526MW electricity. Sources said wind power plants were producing 487MW, solar 104MW, biogas 141MW and atomic power plants were producing 3,312 megawatts of electricity currently.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Country needs $12bn to avert run on forex
ISLAMABAD: In order to bridge the financing gap, Pakistan requires dollar inflows of $9 to $12 billion in the shape of rollover and fresh loans from bilateral donors and commercial banks for avoiding further depletion of foreign currency reserves during the current fiscal year.
Pakistan has sought nine- month extension into EFF with an increase in size of program by $2 billion for jacking up total funding of $8 billion. The IMF program was going to expire in September 2022 but with request of extension now it would be matured in June 2023.

“Pakistan will have muster up dollar inflows of $9 to $12 billion depending upon level of current account deficit in remaining months so the government will have to ensure rollover of commercial loans and deposits from China, seeking more generous package from Saudi Arabia and securing commercial loans from consortium of banks in remaining period of the current fiscal year” top official sources confirmed while talking to The News here on Monday.
On the basis of both these projections on CAD, it is estimated that the country requires $9 to $12 billion financing in remaining period of the current fiscal year. Pakistan is awaiting to get $2.4 billion loan rollover from China and all procedural requirement are completed. Ministry of Finance high-ups expect that it will be done in May 2022. China’s $2 billion deposits are also required rollover as $1 billion would be due in May and second $1 billion in July 2022. In totality, Pakistan requires $4.3 billion rollover from China in next four months.

Secondly, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be visiting Saudi Arabia this week and Ministry of Finance has worked out proposal for seeking extension in deposits of $3 billion in line with extension into IMF programme, seeking fresh deposits and utilization of oil facility on deferred payments.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

Dilbu wrote:Electricity crisis worsens as shortfall hits 7,468MW
LAHORE: With an increase in temperatures, the energy crisis has worsened in the country, with the power shortfall reaching 7,468MW on Monday, and resulting in up to 10-18 hours of loadshedding in the country.

Shutdown of power plants is being blamed for the fuel shortage and technical reasons for shortfall in electricity generation. The total power generation presently stands at 18,031MW, while the demand hovers around 25,500MW. As many as 3,674 megawatts of electricity is being produced from hydropower, while government thermal power plants are generating only 786MW. In contrast, private power producers are contributing 9,526MW electricity. Sources said wind power plants were producing 487MW, solar 104MW, biogas 141MW and atomic power plants were producing 3,312 megawatts of electricity currently.
The total power generation capacity is a good indication for entire Pak economy.

Delhi + NCR, Mumbai+ Navi Mumbai and Bangalore combined would be consuming more power than Pakistan can produce.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

The total power generation presently stands at 18,031MW, while the demand hovers around 25,500MW.
The state wise installed power generation capacity in India is available on wikipedia. Check out the numbers of top 3 below.
Maharashtra- 42,076.27 MW
Gujarat- 41,520.77 MW
Tamilnadu- 35,412.30 MW
Suraj
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Suraj »

18GW installed capacity is amazing. India adds that much or more per year and by March would touch 400GW installed capacity. I thought they were around 23-25GW, but they've gone in the other direction.

This reflects what I posted on this thread originally - in several core infrastructure parameters they've exceeded 1:10 threshold and are now in the 1:20 region. When you drive along the finished Delhi-Mumbai expressway next year remember that one road has more cement than all of Pakistan's annual output.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Jits »

Suraj wrote:18GW installed capacity is amazing. India adds that much or more per year and by March would touch 400GW installed capacity. I thought they were around 23-25GW, but they've gone in the other direction.

This reflects what I posted on this thread originally - in several core infrastructure parameters they've exceeded 1:10 threshold and are now in the 1:20 region. When you drive along the finished Delhi-Mumbai expressway next year remember that one road has more cement than all of Pakistan's annual output.
It's not like that, they have 40GW installed capacity, peak demand of 25 GW but transmission and distribution capacity of 22 GW, so they cannot produce more than 22 GW because they lack distribution capacity. The current crisis is because they have fuel shortages and are able to generate only 18GW.

India has 400 GW installed capacity, so this parameter is 1:10
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

18GW of the 39GW capacity comes from IPPs who have never been audited for their actual capacity to produce. So you can understand how much capacity actually exists.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Actually did Riasat-e-Medina have any electricity, or AAK 47, shouldn't it be part of the National ideology to move exactly like that.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Depletion of foreign currency reserves: Pakistan to seek additional package of $3.2bn from Saudi Arabia
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has decided to seek an additional package of $3.2 billion from Saudi Arabia for jacking up the total facility to $7.4 billion from the existing $4.2 billion during the ongoing visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in order to avert further depletion of foreign currency reserves.
Pakistan will also make a request to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for rollover of the existing package of $4.2 billion for one year till June 2023 in order to align it with the IMF programme as Islamabad has already asked the Fund to extend the existing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for nine months till June 2023 coupled with increasing the size of the programme from $6 billion to $8 billion.

Saudi Arabia had already given $3 billion deposits to the State Bank of Pakistan and an oil facility on deferred payment worth $1.2 billion during the tenure of the last PTI-led regime. The deposits were given in December 2021, while the Saudi Oil Facility (SOF) started in March 2022 and so far, $100 million were disbursed.

Saudi Arabia had placed stringent conditions with the last package amount of $4.2 billion and linked it to the IMF programme.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

A-o-A maulaners. Rejoice. All Bakistans financial problems viz repayment of interests on loans will vanish (loans themselves are to be written off anyway) once they switch to shariah compliant islamic banking

Yawn - Federal Shariat Court declares interest-based banking system as against Sharia
The Federal Shariat Court (FSC) on Thursday announced a verdict in a long-pending case on Riba (interest), declaring the prevailing interest-based banking system as against the Sharia and directed the government to facilitate all loans under an interest-free system.

The court observed that banks were receiving more than the loan amount when fell under the category of usury. "Islamic banking system is risk-free and against exploitation," Justice Dr Syed Muhammad Anwar remarked.

"Almost two decades have elapsed but the governments have not taken any decisions against the interest system," Justice Anwar said.

The court also declared all the provisions of the Interest Act 1839, which facilitate interest, as unlawful.
Last edited by Manish_P on 28 Apr 2022 20:03, edited 1 time in total.
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

To be Sharia compliant Pakistan must put a freeze on repayment of Interest to the Chinese's or IMF, and refuse to take any more IMF loans on Interest.

i.e Trade with only OIC countries and get money from them.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Taking loans is Shariah compliant. Paying interest or collecting interest on them is not.

So all Bakistan needs to do is refuse to pay the interest.. ex-Bikhari-in-chief had anyway begged all creditors to write off the loan principals due to Covid, A'stan issue, Modi, RSS, RAA and what not...
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

China disagrees with feasibility costs: Railways ML-1 project may be shelved
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to shelve the much-talked about Pakistan Railways ML-1 project due to disagreement between Islamabad and Beijing, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.

This issue was discussed at CPEC Review Committee meeting presided over by Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, Ahsan Iqbal.

“Ministry of Railways stated that PC-1 of ML-1 project was not feasible as costs were not agreeable to the Chinese side,” the sources said adding that Minister directed that Minister for Railways should be appraised of the matter and a report should be submitted to the Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives.

The ML-l project of Pakistan Railways was the largest proposed infrastructure project of the country under CPEC to which Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) accorded approval at an estimated cost of US$ 6.8068 billion on August 5, 2020.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan’s food insecurity dilemma
PAKISTAN’S new government will face old and persistent problems. The most ominous challenges relate to the state of the economy and, in particular, the food insecurity faced by the poorest of households, both in the rural and urban areas at a time of post-Covid inflation. Matters have been exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The first thing that the new finance minister has to understand is that, for agriculture and rural businesses, the formal financial sector doesn’t exist. It is a joke when the central bank sets an annual agri credit target of over Rs1.5 trillion and also accepts target achievement reports sent by commercial banks. This claim of achieving the agri credit target was exposed when State Bank governor Reza Baqir rightly admitted that the agriculture sector was neglected, and emphasised it should be served better. As a practising farmer and student of agriculture economics, I want to make it clear that the banker-led approach to agri financing does not work and needs to be disrupted.

The reason why the formal financial sector is as good as non-functional for agriculture is that, in this day and age, when businesses are based on knowledge, bankers have no institutional means at their disposal to gather meaningful data about farms and rural businesses. They are simply not equipped to make informed investment decisions as far as agri financing is concerned. And with non-existent formal financing, agricultural transformation is not possible.
Globally, tech-led businesses have made major advances over the last few decades. This wave now seems to be reaching Pakistan. In the last one year or so, some $350 million have been invested in Pakistani tech start-ups. This is impressive, but negligible when compared to India, where the city of Bengaluru has received $13bn funding in tech start-ups in one year.
Already ‘experts’ — who hardly understand anything about farming and agri businesses — are warning that the new digital banks will struggle to reach agriculture and other underserved sectors. It has to be emphasised that the policymakers and regulators must take a new knowledge-based and enabling approach to reach rural ventures including agribusinesses. There need to be new models reflecting tech platforms that have one foot in the physical world to serve rural businesses and achieve agricultural transformation. {A neutral author would should have added a reference here to the many initiatives implemented in India}
In Pakistan, the policy of robbing Peter to pay Paul has to stop if the food security needs of farmers and poorer households are to be met. This is set to be a test for the new government’s economic advisers.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Dilbu wrote:China disagrees with feasibility costs: Railways ML-1 project may be shelved
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to shelve the much-talked about Pakistan Railways ML-1 project due to disagreement between Islamabad and Beijing, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.
China got what it wanted, which is Gwadar. It doesn't need ML-1 because there is negligible value in the land bridge through PoK into China. ML-1 would have helped the Chinese logistics chain push containers of finished products into the Punjab hinterland but between the inability of awaam to purchase Chinese goods and the fact that road networks are good enough, they must have felt that ML-1 is not worth the money.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

May be Chinese are finding that Infra project costs are inflated and the money is passed to the Fauj. Thats how Faujis are keeping the corner plots and other schemes for the gernails. High cost makes the projects to fail commercially later and Pakis then turn around and blame the Chinese.

What will Chinese do with Gawadar?The only good use is as a military port next to the gulf. Paki Army can't allow that. Gernails will lose their Pizza franchises in US fast if that happens.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

They probably have seen the Paki track record of stealing everything from the railway lines, including tracks, electric poles and the actual wires.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

How the heck does it cost nearly $7 Billion to build a 1600 KM railway line on flat land without any topographical challenge? These costs are too high even if you were to factor in both - baksheesh for the Pak Fauj and cost inflated contracts for Chini companies.

There must be some semi-madrasa educated railway employee who realized that operational feasibility of the railway line was not possible due to the inevitable very high ticket prices that would be necessary on account of the inflated cost of the project. Bear in mind that they cannot cross subsidize the passenger tickets with income from goods transport as that pie is firmly in the grip of the Pak Fauj's National Logistics division within Pak railways :mrgreen:

Somewhat similar is the case of Orange line metro in Lahore where the massively inflated cost rendered it a commercially loosing venture with an inbuilt subsidy per ticket of Rs 20 to ensure people can afford to travel on it.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Paul »

Shahbaz Sharif is conversant in Arabic.....remember reading this some time ago. His tenure as PM will go a long way in repairing relations with GCC states.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

Paul wrote:Shahbaz Sharif is conversant in Arabic.....remember reading this some time ago. His tenure as PM will go a long way in repairing relations with GCC states.
True to some extent, but the Arabs are no fools, and the Overton Window as it were has shifted already, away from the Islamist-driven relationship with Pakistan to the cosmopolitan relationship with India. They know the reality that the prime minister is always at the mercy of the real power center, and that real power center was the one that removed the Sharifs and brought Dimran to power, and they can do so again anytime.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

Oil depot is on fire in Peshawar today :rotfl:

Video of the incident can be found below

https://twitter.com/hassan1munir/status ... 5990507520

As of 30 Apr , they have not removed subsidies as well , hahaha this is best strategy , more power to TTP munnas :evil: :evil:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

Paul wrote:Shahbaz Sharif is conversant in Arabic.....remember reading this some time ago. His tenure as PM will go a long way in repairing relations with GCC states.
I wonder what goes on in the minds ruling shiekhs when they see this huge entourage of Paki PM, Paki generals, ministers and their extended families land in KSA or UAE every 6 months ? Its the exact same routine each time ! Talk about how important the relationship is between gulf and Pakistan, do a umrah in mecca, beg for a meeting with MBS or Khalifa Bin Zayed, get on the knees and ask for more free oil and couple of billion dollars in alms to shore up SBP's non-existent reserves, let their mohatarmas do some shopping in Dubai , fly to Islamabad and rinse & repeat after 6 months. Its the same song and dance irrespective of who the paki PM is or paki general is ! I bet the first thing that comes to the mind of gulf rulers when they see the paki PM is "here come the bhikaaris again" !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

No, its not quite that.

Most of the Middle east populace is not properly educated or trained to man their high tech assets like Airforce or western tanks. So you have pakistani jernails, kernails and officers actually training their forces and flying their airplanes. Pakistan population is ~250M, saudi is ~35M, so Pakistan has a larger workforce/military age population. Also given the politics and society of the middle east (royals/others) Pakistan has a middle (or call it bureaucrat class) that supplies military age people, who can fight.

In addition, due to various reasons the monarchies in the middle east do not want a strong army and a strong officer class. Look at what is happening in Pakistan, Bajwa calls the shots and shoves his danda in the musharraf of various PMs and presidents. Will any middle east monarchy want an empowered army with strong cohesion and institutional structure to gain power in this way? So they are forever dependent on Pakistani officer class.

Also note that Pakistan has the bum.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

...and the bhikaris are allowed to live for yet another day. Why do you need reforms, economy, development, energy security etc. when you have perfected the art of begging for alms ?
Pakistan has received $8 billion in a "sizeable package" from Saudi Arabia as the country faces dwindling foreign exchange reserves amid other economic challeges such as high inflation, a widening current account deficit, and a depreciating currency, according a media report on Sunday.

Pakistan's "The News" newspaper has reported that the country secured the deal during the visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Saudi Arabia — his first visit abroad as prime minister. The package includes doubling of the oil financing facility, additional money either through deposits or Sukuks and rolling over of the existing $4.2 billion facilities, as per the newspaper report.

"However, technical details are being worked out and it will take a couple of weeks to get all documents ready," the report said, citing top official sources aware of the development.
https://www.outlookindia.com/internatio ... ews-194337
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kit »

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/pakistan- ... ju/938345/


Pakistan as a state has always been beyond its means, but will always be kept afloat through international financial institutions or foreign benefactors because no country wants a “nuclear Somalia”, former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Pakistan and Myanmar Vivek Katju said at an event in Delhi Saturday.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

^ that's the convenient excuse push forth by the West to hide the real reason - to keep a check on India.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

Its funny to see how Paki journos spin how much money they've actually got ( or going to get ) into outlandish claims

First off , with IMF , they claim they've got $8 Bn . Now this is actually incorrect . Under the EFF program with the IMF which was discontinued and then now restarted under Shehbaz , they have already recieved $3 Bn (out of the original $6 Bn) in tenure of Imran Khan , $3 Bn was pending . IMF dudes will come to pakistan in May 2022 and they decide on tranch of $950 odd millions.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/953478 ... n-on-forex
The revival of the IMF will only be possible till the end June 2022 if everything goes well between the two sides. So, Pakistan and the IMF will have to strike a staff-level agreement after holding talks in mid May and then the Fund’s Executive Board requires 4 to 6 weeks period to get approval on next tranche of $960 million under $6 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
Now with the IMF press release ,
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... n-Pakistan
Washington, DC: Mr. Nathan Porter, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for Pakistan, issued the following statement:

"We had very productive meetings with the Finance Minister of Pakistan Miftah Ismail over Pakistan’s economic developments and policies under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. We agreed that prompt action is needed to reverse the unfunded subsidies which have slowed discussions for the 7th review. Based on the constructive discussions with the authorities in Washington, the IMF expects to field a mission to Pakistan in May to resume discussions over policies for completing the 7th EFF review. The authorities have also requested the IMF to extend the EFF arrangement through June 2023 as a signal of their commitment to address existing challenges and achieve the program objectives."
Now where does this extra $2 Bn come from , I scanned Miftah Ismail , the Finance Minister of Pakistan twitter profile , nowhere its found , also I scanned the IMF spokesperson Gerry whatshisname also , again no mention.
Aha , here comes the news https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/953478 ... n-on-forex
Pakistan has sought nine- month extension into EFF with an increase in size of program by $2 billion for jacking up total funding of $8 billion
This is very irresponsible journalism ( not citing any source ) and India media parrots this as is , Pakistan got $8 Bn , lol.
As it is , they have not even removed subsidies on fuel , electricity , all they might get is the aforementioned $960 million.

Now onto the Saudi Arabia trip

Previously under the Imran Khan regime , Saudi gave $3 Bn in cash and $1.2-$1.5 Bn to finance evergy purchases/deferred (with an interest rate of 4% and which could be recalled by Saudi within 72 hours , if you remember this caused much embarrasment to Pakistan .) Also Pakistan cannot spend this forex on anything , it is just to shore up its reserves , so that it doesnt default on IMF conditions.

Now after this visit , if you see the jt statement first page (2nd page is Climate change , Paris agreement and other assorted gas)
Check the 3rd paragraph.
Image

The $3Bn they are asking to rollover is already part of their aggregate reserves as of today. Its not naya paisa. I have no clue how much of their deferred energy purchase they have already used up. No denying that after further discussions (which will maybe happen in the next 2-3 weeks, lol) they might get a concrete figure. But to claim they got $8 Bn as a headline is again very irresponsible jounrlism (to put it mildly).
Again Indian media parrots this as is.

If an economy noob like me can get this idea , why do India today , ndtv , outlook parrot paki lies.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

good research there athulya.

for how much of that Oil credit facility Pakistan would have burnt through see some stats below:
Pakistan’s petroleum import bill hit a record high of $11.69 billion in the first seven months (July-January) of current fiscal year 2021-22 mainly due to a surge in energy prices in the global market and partly due to a pickup in demand in the country.
Assuming 20% of this is spent with KSA, the $1.2bn in deferred payments would be gone in pretty quick.
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Any chance Pakis can experience SL type devaluation with similar lines for fuel ques, will be nice to watch
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Aditya_V ji

Queues are quite common in Jihadistan. Several photos have been shared on these threads earlier. Perhaps they have become so common that we take them to be normal.

Only striking difference is that you will not find wimmen in the queues in Pakistan.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

In case we wonder why and how begging comes so naturally to the Bakis

Yawn - The economics of Eidi
It's that time of the year again. Young, freshly groomed children of varying ages, dressed in freshly pressed clothes will roam the streets, minted with crisp notes collected from neighbours and relatives near and far.

Armed with the confidence of buying power, they will strut into neighbourhood shops, picking out candies and toys they've been longing for the whole year.

...
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Trade deficit peaks at $39.3 billion
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit crossed $39 billion in first 10 months of the current fiscal year, as the pace of increase in imports was double than the surge in exports, leaving the new government in search of dollars amid its weakening will to take tough policy decisions.

The $39.3 billion gap between exports and imports during July-April was $11 billion more than the estimate for fiscal year 2021-22, which still has two months left, showed the trade bulletin released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday.

The 10-month trade deficit was $15.4 billion, or over two-thirds, more than the same period of previous year, according to the PBS.
athulya
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

Pakis cant keep this up , they have to slow down their economy , reported inflation will certainly rise ( add in the commodities jump / removal of subsidies) and interest rates will have to go up .

Their State bank reserves are at $10.49 billion. They borrowed $2.5 billion through Eurobonds in March 2021 ( The yield is hovering at 16% , at these rates , god knows what development projects they can do ) . Also included is $3 billion from Saudi on which they pay back 4 % and cant spend and are asking for a rollver , deposit fron China (which Imran managed to get rolled over :lol: ) assorted loans from IMF etc.

On top of that Ishaq Dar is insisting PKR should be 122 to the USD :rotfl:
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

IMF is now squeezing testimonials.
‘IMF DELAYS MEETING WITH PAKISTAN, SEEKS HIKE IN PETROL, DIESEL PRICES’
KARACHI: Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) spokesperson on finance Muzzammil Aslam on Monday claimed that the IMF has deferred meeting with Pakistan authorities for release of US$1 billion tranche until May 18 and is demanding a hike in petrol and diesel prices, ARY NEWS reported.

Muzzammil Aslam while sharing a news report claimed that the IMF mission is not scheduled to visit Pakistan on May 10 and instead wanted the government to raise prices of petrol, diesel and electricity ahead of staff-level talks.

“If prices are raised then IMF delegation could meet Pakistani authorities in Doha from May 18,” he said, adding that the international lender wanted excessive taxes on common man in the next budget.

He further claimed that the government will also not receive any funds from friendly countries.
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