Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Smart option now is Shebaz to resign and give back the Gaddi to Imran.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

PKR climbed back to 188 and KSE went down by 3.2%. Pakis are running out of options and need money desperately.

I am still not able to understand what essentials are Pakis importing (other than oil) that is causing this big a hole in their trade balance.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

What essentials ? Everything ! Despite a very fertile land their agro output is terrible, so they are not food self-sufficient even for basic staples like wheat and sugar, so they import them from abroad. Same with cooking oil, auto parts, cheap near-junk chinese 2-wheelers, cars that are either imported in full or come in CKD form that are assembled in Pakistan. They don't have any electronic industry to speak of, so cellphones/tv/washing machines/computers everything is imported from China. Other than terrorism ,wellfare seekers, textiles and himalayan pink salt i am struggling to think of anything that Pakistan exports. Its a miracle that it took this long for them to land in proper soup, they should have been in Srilanka kind of situation in the 90s itself but thanks to endless bailouts from IMF/WB and alms from KSA, UAE, US, UK , Japan they survived for this long.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

So how long before the Porkis threaten to sell atomic bombs if aid is not restored or all the outstandings are written off.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

What essentials ? Everything ! Despite a very fertile land their agro output is terrible, so they are not food self-sufficient even for basic staples like wheat and sugar, so they import them from abroad. Same with cooking oil, auto parts, cheap near-junk chinese 2-wheelers, cars that are either imported in full or come in CKD form that are assembled in Pakistan. They don't have any electronic industry to speak of, so cellphones/tv/washing machines/computers everything is imported from China. Other than terrorism ,wellfare seekers, textiles and himalayan pink salt i am struggling to think of anything that Pakistan exports. Its a miracle that it took this long for them to land in proper soup, they should have been in Srilanka kind of situation in the 90s itself but thanks to endless bailouts from IMF/WB and alms from KSA, UAE, US, UK , Japan they survived for this long.

Bottom line Pakis have two main export items 1) international terrorist and 2) international baggers.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Ambar wrote:.... Other than terrorism ,wellfare seekers, textiles and himalayan pink salt i am struggling to think of anything that Pakistan exports....
Balls!!

err... I mean footballs. Don't forget bakistan manufacturers and exports footballs.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Especially world cup Football's are manufactured in Sialkot, the world was kicking Paki balls or playing football with Paki balls
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A Deshmukh »

Manish_P wrote:err... I mean footballs. Don't forget bakistan manufacturers and exports footballs.
also donkeys...?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Flour crisis looms over country
LAHORE: A flour crisis looms over the country with the government locking up the wheat in its coffers as well as its expensive rates amid shortage in the open market.

Sources told The Express Tribune that flour mills had reduced the procurement of wheat and milling fearing a possible fall in its prices. There is also a risk of a flour crisis if the gap between supply and demand widens.

However, government sources claimed that there was an abundance of wheat and a new policy would be announced soon. They maintained that there would be no flour crisis.

Despite the increase in flour prices up to Rs1300 in Punjab, its availability is not stable.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

So TSP will get bheekh from other countries only if it agrees to resume IMF programme. To resume this programme IMF is demanding the withdrawal of energy subsidies and tax amnesty provided to already ailing industries. There is no escape unless China is willing to step in and provide aid without the guarantee of IMF programme and that looks highly unlikely.
Stocks plunge 1,448 points as govt fails to secure dollars from IMF, friendly countries
Speaking to Dawn, Arif Habib Ltd Head of Research Tahir Abbas said investors sold shares on a lack of clarity with respect to the resumption of the IMF programme. “We must resume the loan programme. Its prerequisites include ending the petroleum and electricity subsidies and the withdrawal of the amnesty extended by the last government for sick industrial units,” he said.

These prerequisites will follow the incorporation of other IMF recommendations into the 2022-23 budget. Friendly countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly linked their economic relief packages to the resumption of the IMF programme. Only then will Pakistan be able to go to international capital markets for the issue of sukuk and bonds to further strengthen its dollar inflows, he said.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

There are serious issues plaguing the CPEC working relationship between TSP and iron brother on the ground if you read the fine print. Will the Chinese pull the plug?
Chinese IPPs warn of closure if not paid Rs300bn
ISLAMABAD: With more than Rs300 billion in stuck up dues, more than two dozen Chinese firms operating in Pakistan on Monday said that they would be forced to shut down their power plants this month unless payments were made upfront.

This was the overwhelming theme of a meeting presided over by Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal with more than 30 Chinese companies operating under the flagship multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in various areas including energy, communication, railways and others.
There was a plethora of complaints, including those relating to complex visa procedures for Chinese executives, taxation and so on, but there were also counter complaints from the Pakistani side as well, on delayed responses to their communications, informed sources told Dawn.

About 25 representatives from Chinese independent power producers (IPPs) spoke one after the other and complained about the buildup of their dues and warned that without upfront payments they would shut down within days. They said the authorities were pressuring them to maximise generation to meet peak summer needs, but “this is impossible for us in view of serious liquidity issues”.
The Chinese also expressed concern over the upcoming draft renewable energy policy that requires international competitive bidding. The chairman of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), who also attended the meeting, also stressed that Chinese IPPs are also required to put their own house in order and complained that their letters to the Chinese remained unanswered for a long time, and unless regulatory requirements were addressed, some of the issues would remain unsettled.
The contractors of the Sukkur-Multan Motorway also complained about non-payments by the National Highway Authority (NHA) and protested that they were bad-named in Pakistan by the previous government even though their performance had been acknowledged with an A-Class award by the Chinese government for the project’s quality. :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

Rumour mills abuzz as DG ISI visited Washington DC yesterday (via stopover in London) .
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=766021
https://twitter.com/MarianaBaabar/statu ... 0837261314
Trying to confirm from @OfficialDGISPR
Hearing from DC sources DG ISI Gen Nadeem Anjum is in DC. Is holding meetings with his counterparts . Two days meeting. Probably returns tomorrow.First reported by @baqirsajjad

Good for bilateral relations. Hope @BBhuttoZardari
visits too
Also there is talk that Shehbaaz might be going to London to meet brother Nawaz to decide if they should remove subsidy or not. This time from Indian channel , looks confirmed , What a joke of prime minister this man is. I think they will remove subsidies from energy prices (or not) or call elections so that football can be passed to the next selected govt. I suspect ISI was not able to convince Unkil Sam to provide bakshish (without removing subsidy.) I think they have to remove subsidies , they have no choice .

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1523969888636882949
#Pakistan | Nawaz Sharif summons PML-N meet in London to discuss country's political & economical situation.
PM Shehbaz Sharif is likely to fly to London.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

PAKISTANI RUPEE SLUMPS TO ALL-TIME LOW AGAINST US DOLLAR
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee plunged to an all-time low against the US dollar in the interbank market, ARY News reported on Tuesday.

According to forex dealers, the exchange rate remained under pressure as the US dollar continued its upward spiral against the local currency.

The value of the greenback surged by 82 paisa in early trade and currently trading at Rs188.35 in the interbank market, hitting an all-time high.

The forex dealers have further shared that the greenback is being sold above Rs189 in the open market.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Actually PKR is doing very well, while INR has depriciated to 77.3- 77.5 range, PKR has held its value at 189 range, it needs to have INR INR:PKR ratio of 1:2.75 in a fortnight.

What Pakis need is SL type situation where SLR:PKR hit 1:1 ratio and similar availability in Power, Gas, Petrol, Diesel situation.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Business Recorder editorial on the economic situation of the country.
Economy and IMF’s stalled 7th review
The expectation is premised on the government meeting the “prior” condition explicitly and unambiguously noted in the one-paragraph IMF press release dated 24 April 2022 subsequent to an agreement reached with the visiting Pakistani team led by Finance Minister Miftah Ismail that “prompt action is needed to reverse the unfunded subsidies which have slowed discussions for the seventh review.”

That condition remains unmet to this day and to further complicate matters a former finance minister who is extremely close to the PML-N leadership stated on a private channel that “we cannot overburden the common people by increasing the prices of petroleum and products…we have to run the country and not ruin it by taking dictations.”


Such comments are extremely unhelpful given the current state of the economy as the next working day after they were delivered, the stock market plunged by 3.23 percent in a single day with stock investors losing more than 228 billion rupees.
The question therefore that needs to be asked is whether continuing these subsidies is less inflationary than the (i) rise in the budget deficit; (ii) the deferral of the seventh review talks with the IMF that is contributing to an eroding rupee, again an inflationary policy; and (iii) decline in the stock market reflective of negative market perception with implications on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

What is also patently evident today is that the IMF is no longer willing to renegotiate the EFF package — be it due to changing geopolitical considerations or the fact that Pakistan has consistently not implemented structural reforms that it agreed to in all the previous twenty-two programmes.

Shaukat Tarin, the outgoing finance minister, tried and failed to renegotiate the terms agreed in 2019 though he too was initially optimistic that he could successfully persuade the Fund to phase out the harsh upfront conditions — a view premised on his earlier engagement with the Fund in 2008.
The other option is to urge the friendly countries to extend a helping hand, an option the Shehbaz Sharif-led government took as did his predecessor Imran Khan’s; however, while the Khan administration succeeded in getting pledges of over 11 billion dollars in 2018 yet the amount was insufficient to meet the country’s requirements and the IMF’s EFF was subsequently negotiated in May 2019.

A worse situation prevails today with the trade deficit July-April at a historic high of 39.1 billion dollars while the comparable figure for 2017-18 was 30.1 billion dollars. The rollover of present assistance facilities and further assistance by the friendly countries (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), according to reports, was premised on resumption of the derailed IMF programme.
It is hoped that the cabinet would take informed economic decisions with one objective in view — Balance of Payment (BoP) — and not allow political considerations to dictate its agenda. It must shake up the economy before it’s too late.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Dilbu wrote:
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee plunged to an all-time low against the US dollar in the interbank market, ARY News reported on Tuesday.

According to forex dealers, the exchange rate remained under pressure as the US dollar continued its upward spiral against the local currency.

The value of the greenback surged by 82 paisa in early trade and currently trading at Rs188.35 in the interbank market, hitting an all-time high.

The forex dealers have further shared that the greenback is being sold above Rs189 in the open market.
Congrats Folks, PKR crossed 190 today. There was time when we wanted it to cross 175. The countdown to 200 is now starting.

I wish for the government to call fresh elections. That announcement will make the journey to 200 so much easier.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Tanaji »

Hain ji? Didnt their FM want the rate to be at 125? What happened of the TFTA exchange rate then?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rsingh »

You guys are cruel.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by saip »

Tanaji wrote:Hain ji? Didnt their FM want the rate to be at 125? What happened of the TFTA exchange rate then?
He must be dumbest FM ever. Paki exports are mainly textiles and they are highly price sensitive. If they can not copmpete with the likes of Viennam and BD at 190/USD how they hell will they ever compete at 125/usd?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bala »

Is it time to buy up places like Gwadar, corridor to Afghanistan, Karachi etc. This could tide down the debt the nation is facing with extremely restrictive conditions.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Pakistani rupee reaches a new all-time low of Rs190 against the US dollar.

In the interbank market on May 11, the US dollar soared to an all-time high against the Pakistani rupee (PKR), reaching Rs190.10.

In the morning. the local currency was trading at Rs189.89 to Rs190.04, with deals reported at Rs190.

The dollar gained Rs1.44, surpassing the prior day’s finish of Rs188.66. The greenback touched an all-time high on May 11, when it surpassed the Rs189 level.

It had gone down in the immediate aftermath of the April 11 change of government, but the adjustment soon ran out of steam, and the greenback is now flying again, hitting a new all-time high.

Experts say the rupee is under pressure because of increased oil import bills and speculation about the Saudi package. Foreign reserves were also under strain due to delays in talks with the International Monetary Fund.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

^^ Yeh dil mange more
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by nachiket »

saip wrote:
Tanaji wrote:Hain ji? Didnt their FM want the rate to be at 125? What happened of the TFTA exchange rate then?
He must be dumbest FM ever. Paki exports are mainly textiles and they are highly price sensitive. If they can not copmpete with the likes of Viennam and BD at 190/USD how they hell will they ever compete at 125/usd?
which is why I was hoping after the new regime came to power that the lunatic Ishaq Dar would come back and try his level best to get the exchange rate back up at any cost by using what's left of their reserves. Would have been fun to watch the aftermath of that.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Currency crisis: Rupee nears 192 in inter-bank, hits 193 in open market
Pakistan's currency was thrown deeper into oblivion on Thursday, with the rupee falling in intra-day trading near the 192 level against the US dollar amid deepening economic woes and no policy-plan in sight.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

So if Imran's road shows attracts the aam abdul's in huge numbers and there is pressure and instability for the present government till the elections next year what are we looking at as the value of the Porki toilet paper - 225? :twisted:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

I think 250-300, PML and PPP know the economy is shit state, the only reason they put Im the Dim out is to decide who follows Bajwa for which the next 6 months are crucial, Im the Dim wants the Faiz Hameed ISI chief who he is close too. Thats what this all about
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

New Paki government can't sign the IMF deal. It would be a suicide for them. IMF tough conditions means that Awam will never elect the incumbent in next elections which are round the corner. Saudi Money and Chini money is not coming. US is not calling. ISI chief is in US now with a box of grease but I dont think Pakis have anything to give to us after Pakis defeated US in Aghanistan :D

The current government cant call the elections now. Imran would win if that happens as establishment wont be able to mass rig the elections this time given Imran has solid backing from a part of establishment and establishment backed main stream media and social media activists. Worst, Imran wont accept the results in case of a defeat. So a further political turmoil is unavoidable at this time if elections take place now.

My reading is that Paki government will go around to get Bakshish one more time to survive till October and will call fresh elections.

Overall the political turmoil and bad economy will continue. 200 is within reach.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

^^^ the boys(pindi wale) played well
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

CalvinH wrote:New Paki government can't sign the IMF deal. It would be a suicide for them. IMF tough conditions means that Awam will never elect the incumbent in next elections which are round the corner. Saudi Money and Chini money is not coming. US is not calling. ISI chief is in US now with a box of grease but I dont think Pakis have anything to give to us after Pakis defeated US in Aghanistan :D
It's even better than that. They can't sign the IMF deal but they can't reject it either, and the longer the indecision continues, the deeper they go into thier self-dug hole. Like the Ajit dialogue (from old Hindi movie) goes, they are in liquid oxygen - liquid wont let them live and oxygen wont let them die.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/957108 ... s-urgently
‘Pakistan needs $10-12bn inflows urgently’
Our Correspondent, May 12, 2022

KARACHI: Pakistan is in a dire need of external finances to rebuild its foreign reserves amid fears of rising trade deficit that threatens to weaken the rupee further and deteriorate the country’s economy, forex association said on Wednesday.
“Pakistan needs $10-12 billion foreign currency inflows on immediate basis as the trade gap is surging day by day and it is expected to increase to $50 billion in next two months,” said Malik Mohammad Bostan, Chairman Forex Association of Pakistan.
“It is feared that a huge trade gap can bring down Pakistan's rupee and the country's economy,” Bostan added.
Bostan said the politicians have to work prudently to save the country at the crucial time. “Politicians should be guiding instead of fighting.” He said the former PM Imran Khan's long march announcement might cause chaos in the country, which would repeat the history of Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Libya, he feared.
Bostan expressed his deep concerns over the rise of political confrontation in the country, and back to back rallies from political parties against each them. The situation had created an environment of both political and economic uncertainly in the country, he added.
“In last two months, foreign investors did not buy T-bills and their investment is coming to zero. If the political uncertainty continues, no foreign investor will come to Pakistan to invest, which is a sign of danger for the country.”
.....
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2355771/ps ... ncertainty
PSX bleeds over 1,000 points amid political, economic uncertainty
Experts say Pakistan's balance of payment crisis behind decline
Salman Siddiqui, May 09, 2022

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) declined by over 1,000 points on Monday as investors resumed the selling spree owing to economic uncertainty and political turmoil in the country.
The PSX benchmark KSE-100 Index was down by over 2 per cent to 43,903 points by mid-day.
"Stocks faced selling pressure amid a one-week delay in talks between Pakistan and IMF for resumption of the loan programme," Arif Habib Limited (AHL) Head of Research Tahir Abbas said while talking to The Express Tribune. The country has not succeeded in acquiring any fresh bailout packages from friendly countries, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's recent visit. The selling pressure was seen across the board and foreign investors were also speculating regarding selling their stocks as Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have depleted and are hovering around $10.5 billion – the lowest in two years. With this, the country's import cover has dropped to a 1.5-month level from usually around 3-months.
Experts said Pakistan’s balance of payment crisis pushed investors to sell part of their holdings at the PSX.
Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may begin talks on May 18 in Doha, as the country’s options to avoid insolvency have been limited after it could not immediately receive any major financial support from its three friendly countries.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

PKR today is 193 to the USD, 1 year back it was at 152, a measly 27% Deprecation in 1 year with the USD.

Unfortunately INR has depreciated 5% against the USD.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Kafir rate against the US$ is less then the pissful growth rate. Ola ho Uber.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

A point to note is that as compared to a month or so earlier the rate of fall is now in the range of 1 PKR plus rather than the 26 paisey 34 paisey ityaadi.

Momentum is building up... as the Bakistani economy is firmly on the downward slope.

If the kaptaan returns it will hopefully rain four and sixes with the occasional free hit :D
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan’s net external debt soars almost $5bn
ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MEA) on Thursday said Pakistan made a net addition of $4.77 billion in the first half (July–December 2021) of the current fiscal year to its total external public debt of $90.6bn.

In its quarterly report on Foreign Economic Assistance (FEA) for July-December 2021, the MEA said the total external loan inflows during the first half of the year amounted to $8.972bn against loan outflows of $4.2bn, thus making a net addition of $4.772bn.

“As of Dec 31, 2021, Pakistan’s total external public debt stood at $90.6bn,” said the quarterly report.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

The upcoming meeting with IMF on 18th is absolutely crucial for TSP. All other sources of funding including fourfather funding depend on getting good certificate from IMF.
ADB hints at providing $2.5 billion loan to Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday indicated providing $2.5 billion in additional loans to Pakistan, including $1.5 billion before end of year, but the government will have to secure a good economic health certificate from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Last edited by Dilbu on 14 May 2022 00:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Everyone is tying their loan to IMF loan and terms. Even Saudi's did that.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by nachiket »

The deaf and dumb forum is a riot right now. You have PML-N supporters blaming the whole disaster on Dimran while their leaders figure out how to do exactly what they blamed Dimran for when Dimran was in charge. Meanwhile some angry PTI supporters want the whole economy to crash and burn so that the new govt. is thrown out and their dear leader comes marching back triumphantly. Some were even calling for overseas pakis to stop sending remittances in order to make the situation worse. Anger against the Army in general and Bajwa in particular is also palpable. Fun times :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by S_Madhukar »

al-Baki finance minister has the following options -
1. Use the currency printing talent in the country to print Jinnahs instead of Gandhi non-stop. That solves inflation
2. Do not support USD-PKR. Natural bottom will be 1 USD = 786 PKR. This will lead to Bajwa-i-Pind and Qayamat-e-Pudina that will restore balance sheet to 0
3. Awaam should go for gluten-free healthy diet of SDRE Rice and yoghurt. This will resolve food inflation.

All other IMF drama is only moh-maaya jee! :rotfl:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

S_Madhukar wrote:al-Baki finance minister has the following options -
1. Use the currency printing talent in the country to print Jinnahs instead of Gandhi non-stop. That solves inflation
Solves inflation by transitioning from inflation to hyperinflation :mrgreen:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vadivel »

nachiket wrote:The deaf and dumb forum is a riot right now. You have PML-N supporters blaming the whole disaster on Dimran while their leaders figure out how to do exactly what they blamed Dimran for when Dimran was in charge. Meanwhile some angry PTI supporters want the whole economy to crash and burn so that the new govt. is thrown out and their dear leader comes marching back triumphantly. Some were even calling for overseas pakis to stop sending remittances in order to make the situation worse. Anger against the Army in general and Bajwa in particular is also palpable. Fun times :lol:
I just checked it out and there is a thread on support of slavery which is hilarious :rotfl: , don’t want to link it here though.
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