Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Shankas
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shankas »

athulya ji and others
Do you know where I can find a similar link for India.
I am looking for a list of products that India imports

Thank you.

https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/eidb/default.asp
U can Select Commodity-wise imports and then All Commodities in the input form ( and also has options to select Rs / USD to display.)
Thank you very much!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan-IMF talks: Govt likely to withdraw subsidies before Monday
ISLAMABAD: In a major development on the third day of negotiations between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the federal government has decided to withdraw subsidies on petroleum products and electricity before Monday, Geo News reported, citing sources.

According to sources, during the ongoing technical talks with the Fund mission in Doha, the Pakistani delegation also discussed the programme to privatise power plants. The schedule for privatisation of state-owned enterprises has also been shown to the IMF.

While Pakistan’s leadership has agreed to most of the conditions of the international lending body, sources, however, revealed that they have sought concession on a hike in the policy rate, citing its negative impact on business activities as a major reason.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan’s debt mounts to Rs53.5tr
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities jumped to Rs53.5 trillion – an addition of Rs23.7 trillion under the watch of former prime minister Imran Khan, who failed to meet his promise of bringing down by half the debt pile left behind his arch-rival – the PML-N.

The increase in public debt alone, which is the direct responsibility of the government, was Rs19.5 trillion, as it swelled to Rs44.4 trillion by March 2022, according to the central bank.

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) latest debt bulletin for the end of March 2022 showed that the debt burden increased both in absolute terms and in terms of the size of national economy, underscoring that Pakistan’s economic viability requires serious long-term reforms.

The debt issue has been politicised for the past 10 years and no government brought meaningful reforms to stop the debt accumulation.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Load-shedding persists as shortfall increases
According to the sources, the insufficient fuel supply has been taking a heavy toll on power generation whereas the attempts to restore it have not yielded enough electricity to meet the demands. The electricity shortfall has increased to 6,085 megawatts against the demand of over 26,500 megawatts while the total production stood at 20,415 megawatts, sources shared and added that as a result, daily blackouts on Saturday plunged consumers in many parts of the country into darkness for nearly eight hours.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Baki FM Miftah Ismail AKA 'Muft Istamaal' (Free Use) attempting to play pass the parcel

Yawn - Miftah Ismail rules out removal of fuel, energy subsidies ahead of policy-level talks with IMF
Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Monday that he would convey to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that fuel and energy subsidies — which were introduced by the previous PTI government — could not be reversed as the "nation cannot endure it".

He said that according to the deal finalised by former finance minister Shaukat Tarin, Pakistan would have to raise the price of diesel by over Rs 150 and petrol by Rs 100. "It will not happen. I have refused. Shehbaz Sharif sahb has refused. Nawaz Sharif sahb has refused," Ismail added.
But what about Sabse Bada Sahb Bajwa hain?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Ah this is good. I hope TSP will refuse to implement the conditions required by IMF. Along with the long march it will be good fun in the coming weeks.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by putnanja »

Manish_P wrote:Baki FM Miftah Ismail AKA 'Muft Istamaal' (Free Use) attempting to play pass the parcel

Yawn - Miftah Ismail rules out removal of fuel, energy subsidies ahead of policy-level talks with IMF
Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Monday that he would convey to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that fuel and energy subsidies — which were introduced by the previous PTI government — could not be reversed as the "nation cannot endure it".

He said that according to the deal finalised by former finance minister Shaukat Tarin, Pakistan would have to raise the price of diesel by over Rs 150 and petrol by Rs 100. "It will not happen. I have refused. Shehbaz Sharif sahb has refused. Nawaz Sharif sahb has refused," Ismail added.
But what about Sabse Bada Sahb Bajwa hain?
Ah, good sense has prevailed. Here I was bemoaning the fact that pakis will accept the IMF condition and start the tough road to recovery. Happy to hear that their traditional soosai-vest thinking is alive and well. This time, trying out the soosai-vest on their economy. More power to them and bajwa!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hnair »

Splendid. While at it, they should give an across the board raise to Bajwa and co as part of Strategic Defiance Ver2.0

btw, was worried PKR will go below 200 to dollar. Inshallah, PChidambaram's printing press fought valiantly against dollar and reigns supreme.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by putnanja »

PKR went to 201.05 per USD before ending at 200.80 today

Dollar marches on to Rs201 in interbank trade

Pakistan increases interest rates to 13.75% !!

SBP hikes policy rate by 150bps to 13.75pc to 'anchor inflation, contain risks'
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Temporary defiance because Bilawal is still in China with a begging bowl. If he returns empty handed then it would be back to GUBO to IMF.

Paki gov has two options
1. Get the money from somewhere
2. Get the money from IMF

If #1 or #2 doesn't happen
1. Ride this all the way to Bankruptcy
2. Quit now and call for re-elections (Dimran would be back)

No good options. WIP on #1 right now.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

With all the recent paki overtures towards US including begging, wailing and straight out GOBOing, why should China bail them out? If anyone is bailing them out it would most likey be unkil. Either directly or through one of its proxies, including IMF.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Basically this is a economic-political problem for them

The TFTAs realized that Dimran had to go, gave an ishara to PDM who then came to power. They had the assurance that they will do tough choices to set the economy on the right track (remove electricity and fuel subsidies etc), and after 18 months will call for election.

PDM knew dekhonomoney was in Pakistan, but proceeded on this plan anyway. Because the alternative was that Dimran will crown Faiz in november and sunroof lever everyone.

Now it turns out Dimran has supporters inside the army as well, and the TFTAs did a U turn and downhill ski. They want this government to enact tough measures, and then call for elections. However Badmash is against it, because he knows he will lose if he removes subsidies, Dimran comes marching to Isloo and they call for elections. Then it is back to the previous problem: Dimran appoints Faiz and sunroof levers everyone.

One way out is to sign an agreement with Bajwa, give him an extension, sign agreement with TFTAs that elections only after 18 months and then GUBO to IMF, but there is no trust in Bajwa.

Another way out is to dissolve the assemblies, appoint caretaker government, let the caretaker government GUBO to IMF and then call for elections. But them IMF wont trust that the deal signed with caretaker government will be honored. Also what if Dimran wins anyway.

Rumor is that Bilawal and ISI chief had a good reception in Massa. They sold the usual "Front line Al-lie, please support democracy, you dont want Dimran and a new taliban in power, Taliban is Pakistan's problem too..." line for the 10,000th time and Massa gave a patient hearing (dont know what the outcome is).

Meanwhile Cheenis and Saudis realized what Massa realized long back. Giving money to Pakistan is like flushing money down the Pakistan. So they want Pakistan to sign on the dotted line with IMF before they will roll over their loans and give fresh money.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

The Rumor is that Bajwa has back problem and will not seek an extension in Nov
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Atmavik wrote:The Rumor is that Bajwa has back problem and will not seek an extension in Nov
"seek an extension"? Looks like it's a spine problem. Real army chiefs take extension not seek one from bloody civilians.

Bajwa hatao, army bachao.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Lisa »

Atmavik wrote:The Rumor is that Bajwa has back problem and will not seek an extension in Nov
Anyone bending over that much would be naturally prone to back problems.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Foreign loan inflows dry up
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s conventional foreign financing lines largely remained dry in April 2022, as it received hardly a quarter of a billion dollars in external loans from the bilateral and multilateral lenders, taking total loans to $15.5 billion in the current fiscal year.

The disbursement of loans by the multilateral creditors virtually paused due to the delay in reaching a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also put on hold the budgetary support loans.
The $15.5 billion disbursement includes $13.8 billion given by the international creditors and nearly $1.7 billion by the overseas Pakistanis.

Around 85% of the new gross foreign loans were aimed at bridging the budget deficit and supporting the foreign exchange reserves, which remain at the critically low level of $10.2 billion.

Owing to the increasing reliance on loans to enhance the foreign currency reserves and finance the budget deficit, the cost of debt servicing has gone up significantly. The delays and fewer disbursements also put pressure on the rupee, which traded at Rs201 to a dollar in the inter-bank market on Monday.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RajaRudra »

Dilbu wrote:Foreign loan inflows dry up
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s conventional foreign financing lines largely remained dry in April 2022, as it received hardly a quarter of a billion dollars in external loans from the bilateral and multilateral lenders, taking total loans to $15.5 billion in the current fiscal year.

The disbursement of loans by the multilateral creditors virtually paused due to the delay in reaching a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also put on hold the budgetary support loans.
The $15.5 billion disbursement includes $13.8 billion given by the international creditors and nearly $1.7 billion by the overseas Pakistanis.

Around 85% of the new gross foreign loans were aimed at bridging the budget deficit and supporting the foreign exchange reserves, which remain at the critically low level of $10.2 billion.

Owing to the increasing reliance on loans to enhance the foreign currency reserves and finance the budget deficit, the cost of debt servicing has gone up significantly. The delays and fewer disbursements also put pressure on the rupee, which traded at Rs201 to a dollar in the inter-bank market on Monday.
Ideally, we should create more problems to Pakistan in border and make sure their military resources are getting stretched as much as possible. This will strain the finance more now than it had in the previous years.
Else, create more economical problems by cutting of what ever they are trying to export by doing under invoicing in India(for few few years, just to kill that industry in pakistaan) and aim to choke them off financially. Any external help from Whites or Chinese should be made waste one way or the other and there by sucking of their resources also. End game should be , pakis should be made to trade the land for some financial/food settlement.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:With all the recent paki overtures towards US including begging, wailing and straight out GOBOing, why should China bail them out? If anyone is bailing them out it would most likey be unkil. Either directly or through one of its proxies, including IMF.
the cheenis need some begging money flowing into pukestan because they don't want their investment tanking and widespread civil unrest.

A few friendly shootings and bombing by the pakis and the cheenis are panicked enough to have turned tail and run.

Thee may be a djinnah jehadi university management lesson or two here for other debt trapped countries

the cheenis will never bail out the pakis. They did not do so in the case of SL which has already gone down the tubes.

They well knew that if they dilly dallied long enough, then someone foolish would come up with the moolah to soothe the ire of the locals.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vadivel »

RajaRudra wrote:
Ideally, we should create more problems to Pakistan in border and make sure their military resources are getting stretched as much as possible. This will strain the finance more now than it had in the previous years.
Else, create more economical problems by cutting of what ever they are trying to export by doing under invoicing in India(for few few years, just to kill that industry in pakistaan) and aim to choke them off financially. Any external help from Whites or Chinese should be made waste one way or the other and there by sucking of their resources also. End game should be , pakis should be made to trade the land for some financial/food settlement.

This, we should cut both there balls (figuratively speaking, everyone here knows they don’t have them), exports of goods and labour.we should slow kill their main competitive export industry ala economic hitman by under invoicing and or subsidies.

Also bring in and try to implement Indian educational standards in ME on schooling, engineering, health etc which will deny Paki education incompatible, making large section of workforce unqualified for blue collor work. Strangle their inward remittances from ME.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

Dilbu wrote:With all the recent paki overtures towards US including begging, wailing and straight out GOBOing, why should China bail them out? If anyone is bailing them out it would most likey be unkil. Either directly or through one of its proxies, including IMF.
Dilbuji,
Both China and Khan have an interest in propping up Pak. To control/check India, this gives the best return on the money invested. But you are right, China is far more careful with their capital, Amreeka is much more generous. But the money that Amreeka gives comes right back to their banks within hours, in the Jernail's retirement funds account. China may be the tallest friend, but the game is played by Khan's rules.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by S_Madhukar »

Sugars are ending up creating problems for us hoping yindoos will bail out every one in the region… what might look a victory can easily turn into a chain around our neck…after all we are soft targets… print some Jinnahs and turn the lathi the other way.. ensure no chow mein shops remain in the region.. we don’t need any more dry fruits and kishmish… why do I still see al-Baki towels.. wto quotas aside we can’t let them in the same space as us
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan default risk surges
On 5 December 2017, the government of Pakistan sold $1 billion worth of Pakistan Sukuk. Back in 2017, the bonds had a yield of 5.625 percent. Red alert: The bonds that are to mature on 5 December 2022 are now yielding a whopping 27 percent. Translation: An international bond guaranteed by the Government of Pakistan is now yielding 27 percent which means that Pakistan’s default risk, as perceived by international investors, has surged.
In the past eight weeks or so, SBP has lost some $6 billion worth of liquid foreign exchange reserves. Clearly, SBP does not have sufficient reserves to pay back debt obligations plus cover the current account deficit. Clearly, Pakistan will not be able to “meet all its current and future payment obligations without exceptional financial assistance or going into default.”
A sovereign default means three things: it damages a country’s reputation with international investors; it makes it prohibitively expensive to borrow and it wrecks confidence in the country’s currency.

To be certain, Pakistan with a budgetary deficit approaching Rs5 trillion and a current account deficit approaching $20 billion must, at all cost, maintain its access to international credit markets. A sovereign default has five consequences: rising unemployment, increase in the rate of interest, bank runs, currency depreciation and stock market crash.

Every power center in Pakistan is playing their own game as the country heads for a default. In 1258, Hulaku Khan, commanding a Mongol army, besieged Baghdad, the capital of the Abbasid Caliphate. The Abbasid Caliph could have called 50,000 soldiers for the defense of Baghdad but the Caliph and the opposition to him were too busy debating ‘if a crow was halal or haram?’ Much of Baghdad was physically destroyed and “800,000 of its inhabitants perished”. :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Political mayhem: Pakistani rupee nosedives against US dollar
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee dropped to a historic low of Rs202 against the US dollar on Wednesday as an ongoing political crisis rocked confidence in the currency.

The rupee has been declining for months, but the fall became precipitous in March when the then opposition parties tabled a no-confidence motion against Imran Khan that led to his ouster.

The ongoing political drama in the wake of PTI’s ‘Azadi March’ added fuel to the freefall of the local currency.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rsingh »

What are rating agencies saying about the prospects of toilet paper?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

IMF talks over , Al Bakis are not getting the next tranche unless the remove the fuel subsidies.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... o-pakistan
“The mission has held highly constructive discussions with the Pakistani authorities aimed at reaching an agreement on policies and reforms that would lead to the conclusion of the pending seventh review of the authorities’ reform program, which is supported by an IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement. Considerable progress was made during the mission, including on the need to continue to address high inflation and the elevated fiscal and current account deficits, while ensuring adequate protection for the most vulnerable. In this regard, the further increase in policy rates implemented on May 23 was a welcome step. On the fiscal side, there have been deviations from the policies agreed in the last review, partly reflecting the fuel and power subsidies announced by the authorities in February. The team emphasized the urgency of concrete policy actions, including in the context of removing fuel and energy subsidies and the FY2023 budget, to achieve program objectives.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ritesh »

This is all fake drama... Fixed match. They have survived on US doles and will continue to survive unless their utility ceases to exist, which the pakjabi army will never ever allow it to. They were and will sell their souls to the highest bidder.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Pakistan
May 25, 2022

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.
Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Nathan Porter held both in-person and virtual discussions in Doha, Qatar with the Pakistani authorities during May 18-25 on policies to secure macroeconomic stability and support sustainable growth in Pakistan. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Porter, issued the following statement:

“The mission has held highly constructive discussions with the Pakistani authorities aimed at reaching an agreement on policies and reforms that would lead to the conclusion of the pending seventh review of the authorities’ reform program, which is supported by an IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement. Considerable progress was made during the mission, including on the need to continue to address high inflation and the elevated fiscal and current account deficits, while ensuring adequate protection for the most vulnerable. In this regard, the further increase in policy rates implemented on May 23 was a welcome step. On the fiscal side, there have been deviations from the policies agreed in the last review, partly reflecting the fuel and power subsidies announced by the authorities in February.

"The team emphasized the urgency of concrete policy actions, including in the context of removing fuel and energy subsidies and the FY2023 budget, to achieve program objectives.”

“The IMF team looks forward to continuing its dialogue and close engagement with Pakistan’s government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability for the benefit all of Pakistan’s citizens.”
so main crux is in red lines.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

So there is no immediate release of money? This looks more like saying do these things first and then we will have a dekho. But isn’t the talks being held in Doha? Is this country visit a separate activity in parallel to the talks?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by athulya »

Dilbu wrote:So there is no immediate release of money? This looks more like saying do these things first and then we will have a dekho. But isn’t the talks being held in Doha? Is this country visit a separate activity in parallel to the talks?
There is no immediate release of money saar . I think IMF and the govt decided on what needed to be done to revive the pending tranches

Either :

a) Bakis review and remove the subsidies immediately & get the money ; or
b) When they pass the Budget in June ( as agreed today with IMF ) , they also remove the subsidy - > to get the money
c) They pass the budget as agreed upon today & dont remove the subsidies and go back with a begging bowl ( via the same govt or via a caretaker govt)
d) Bakis dont do anything ( honestly dont think , they can afford to do nothing)
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Dilbu wrote:But isn’t the talks being held in Doha? Is this country visit a separate activity in parallel to the talks?
Headline in the above report is confusing, right? May be it is talking about IMF staff's visit to Pakistan in Doha building where the meeting was held?

Pakistani finance minister had issued a statement two days ago that he will not return from Doha without getting the funds sanctioned. Is he still in Doha or is he back in Pakistan or still on his way to catch the train?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

ritesh wrote:...They have survived on US doles and will continue to survive unless their utility ceases to exist, which the pakjabi army will never ever allow it to. They were and will sell their souls to the highest bidder.
+1

And their utility will cease if and only when India ceases to be a power.

The for-rent uniformed Jihadis are merely one of the tools in the tool-box.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

PKR 250 when?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

There is one area that Pakistan is similar to the US. And that is the fire arms that the Abduls possess. All these years we have been reading about the home industry of making guns. The presence of automatic weapons is an equalizer, and in troubled times they will be used.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

IMF to Pakistan: No more money until you end petrol, energy subsidy
The IMF or International Monetary Fund mission wrapped up a week of talks with Pakistan in Doha without saying if it would revive the stalled $6b bailout.

Pakistan went to the IMF in 2019 but has struggled to meet the lender’s conditions. One of the most painful ones is cutting the petrol and energy subsidies because of the devastating political price to pay.
This was their hope. Get approval for a smaller payout from IMF and then use that approval to get baksheesh from other fourfathers. That has now failed.
Pakistan had hoped to get $900 million this time around as it has only enough dollars in the bank to pay for two months of imports. Fuel and petrol subsidies are costing it billions it cannot pay. If the IMF had agreed to this fresh tranche Pakistan would have been able to access other funding as well.
Now which birader mulk will take the risk of propping up TSP without the guarantee of IMF conditions being implemented?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rsingh »

What ever we think. If Baki were nuke nude things would have been different . They are blackmailing.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

rsingh wrote:What ever we think. If Baki were nuke nude things would have been different . They are blackmailing.
Chinese bums newly re-painted. After all it's the Chinese who want the money.. their own investment + interest (which will be provided by the western world)
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by S_Madhukar »

From Yawn -
NA approves bill to deprive overseas Pakistanis from voting, stop use of EVMs in general election

Funnily it seems they are running Khangressi agenda !
This might even lead to riots in Londonistan and Canadastan :mrgreen:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Strategic timeout is over. Now it is time for powerplay to reach 250.
Dollar climbs to Rs202.40 in interbank trade after IMF Doha talks bear no fruit
The rupee continued to lose ground against the US dollar on Thursday and depreciated by 50 paisa in the interbank market as talks between the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remain inconclusive.

According to the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP), the dollar was trading at Rs202.40 at around 1:30pm after appreciating against Wednesday's close of Rs201.90, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data.

In the open market, the greenback was trading at Rs203.50 around 1:30pm.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Nihat »

What is the disbursement and voting criteria for IMF?. If India has any leverage at all or can lean on the US or Japan to stop any further bailout, that'll be the best thing to happen in this scenario.

The US Pakistan decoupling is almost complete and China is a useless benefactor both in terms of economy and defense and their embrace is so much better than the western one. Withdrawal of fuel subsidy, leading to large scale riots, back end fuelling of separatism and the carving out of an independent balochistan with the overt support of USA and India.

Oh well, a guy can dream.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bharathp »

India's voting rights are at 2.75% of total
China is at 6.4%
US at 17%, UK at 4% ,germany at 5.5, france at 4.7 -> combined wield the real outcome of IMF voting
russia is almost same as India
https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive- ... s-quotas#G
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