Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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abhijitm
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

Peregrine wrote:abhijitm Ji :

Do not forget the possibly Five Million Afghanistan Refugees rushing to Pakistan - the Payments by the UN in Aid to help these Refugees.

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Movement of afghans to-from pakistan is due to civil war imposed on them by Taliban and pak army.

As I said, no clear example of population exodus (that too in millions) due to soverign bankruptcy. Fear of millions of pakistanis will cross our border because their economy collapse is misplaced. No worries, let them collapse, in fact lets ensure they collapse.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by saip »

I do not think there will be an exodus if Paksitani economy collapses. Pakis are hardy and there is plenty of grass and they will survive. Only worry is, to detract the people, Pakis may launch a war (which they will surely lose) against India to liberate their Jaguar vein.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

saip wrote:I do not think there will be an exodus if Paksitani economy collapses. Pakis are hardy and there is plenty of grass and they will survive. Only worry is, to detract the people, Pakis may launch a war (which they will surely lose) against India to liberate their Jaguar vein.

watch some videos of the beedis and its easy to discover their distaste, hatred and jealousy of India and yet they flood into India in their hundreds of thousands every year.

Not only that, many beedis go back home to beediland regularly and return back to India as though it was their inalienable right to do so.

the book is the same, the feelings are the same and the intentions are also the very same.

it would be fooling oneself to think otherwise.

grass or no grass, to consciously trivialize such a clear and present danger is to resurrect prithviraj chauhan all over again
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

BD crossing the border is equal to mexicans crossing US border. Here posters are calling doomsday scenario of millions of exodus if pak economy collapse. As I said when economy struggle there are people who seek migration, but not exodus.

We need to understand the meaning of pak economy collapse. Their economy is not export based, they import things that they can still live without. Their agriculture can be sustained and hence food production and dependent jobs. UN and WHO do provide life sustainable things to nation when shit hit the fan. In short common pakistanis can sustain their living waiting for things to get better, and they will not just leave their home for India and risk their family into even bigger unknown.

However, when economy collapses their biggest import i.e. arms get hit hard, very hard. Foreign arms, foreign trips, foreign education, buying foreign property, maintain nukes, all this will get hit. If we want to hit that army where it hurts then their economy must go down. Their rupee must cross 200 and take a deep dive into abyss. So deep that it should take years to climb up.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

Infiltration of Pakistanis must be prevented but that is an task in it's own right and should not be linked to us trying to prevent Paki economy from collapsing. Nobody has any intention in India of letting them in, and the idea that Indian public and politicians will suddenly cave in and let Pakis come in and take their jobs and livelihood and drag down their incomes is part strawman argument and part sky is falling rona dhona.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

abhijitm wrote:
We need to understand the meaning of pak economy collapse. Their economy is not export based, they import things that they can still live without. Their agriculture can be sustained and hence food production and dependent jobs. UN and WHO do provide life sustainable things to nation when shit hit the fan. In short common pakistanis can sustain their living waiting for things to get better, and they will not just leave their home for India and risk their family into even bigger unknown.

However, when economy collapses their biggest import i.e. arms get hit hard, very hard. Foreign arms, foreign trips, foreign education, buying foreign property, maintain nukes, all this will get hit. If we want to hit that army where it hurts then their economy must go down. Their rupee must cross 200 and take a deep dive into abyss. So deep that it should take years to climb up.

Exactly. Economic collapse does not mean mass starvation and migration for Pakistan, just that they will have less money for arms, fancy stuff for their elite, supporting Kashmiri separatism and lobbying/propaganda about Kashmir, and other mischief that they are usually up to. It also means that the differential between them and us rapidly increases, which, when translated down to resources and equipment that their forces have vs ours, can literally save the lives of Indian soldiers.

It also contributes to their political breakup by building resentment against elite and military leadership, and increases regional grievances against the Pakjabis.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Bart S wrote:Infiltration of Pakistanis must be prevented but that is an task in it's own right and should not be linked to us trying to prevent Paki economy from collapsing. Nobody has any intention in India of letting them in, and the idea that Indian public and politicians will suddenly cave in and let Pakis come in and take their jobs and livelihood and drag down their incomes is part strawman argument and part sky is falling rona dhona.
yes.

but one has not taken into calculation the harm that lefties will do, their fake outcries and the international commie pressure that will build up against us.

not that this would result in any change of our policies but the defamation, the blame put on a "damned Hindu society" that is not willing to show compassion and recognize a "humanitarian" crisis and help out by opening its borders will vilify us far and wide.

prevention is better than cure

why should we even discuss the paki economy except for the risk it poses to the Indian state by failing and the security consequences thereafter which certainly includes pakis crossing the border in search of better living conditions
Last edited by chetak on 18 May 2019 21:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Peregrine wrote:...Nawaz Sharif Instituted the Scheme to take over the Locally held US Dollar Accounts in Terroristan to convert the US Dollars into Terroristani Rupees enable save the Country from the problems of Extremely Low Foreign Reserves. I think it was named Mulk Bachao Karaz Utaro.
I'm not sure of that particular scheme, but this did in fact happen in the aftermath of the nuclear tests of 98. Both India and Pak forex reserves were very low; India didn't forcibly convert any USD holdings (which would be mostly NRI accounts), in fact it did the opposite by getting dollar deposits from NRIs at high rates of return; Pak forcibly converted USD holdings into PKR at official rates, essentially decimating those accounts.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

chetak wrote: why should we even discuss the paki economy except for the risk it poses to the Indian state by failing and the security consequences thereafter
Chetak, it is actually other way round. We should discuss how it can be pushed off the cliff because the benefits that scenario provides to India is unparalleled.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

abhijitm wrote:
chetak wrote: why should we even discuss the paki economy except for the risk it poses to the Indian state by failing and the security consequences thereafter
Chetak, it is actually other way round. We should discuss how it can be pushed off the cliff because the benefits that scenario provides to India is unparalleled.
Modi has openly articulated how the pushing off the cliff process has already started.

the paki media had already started talking about this some years ago
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

Please also remember that usually nations after bankruptcy recover if there are no or less sanctions. How fast should the recovery be, it depends. But if there are no severe import export sanctions then it eventually recovers, but at great cost. Otherwise modern day nation do not stay bankrupt perpetually.

What I want (or expect) is an economic shock that can last 3-5 years. Enough to break pak army back. Of course, all our problems will not go away. Let's see.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

chetak wrote:
abhijitm wrote: Chetak, it is actually other way round. We should discuss how it can be pushed off the cliff because the benefits that scenario provides to India is unparalleled.
Modi has openly articulated how the pushing off the cliff process has already started.

the paki media had already started talking about this some years ago
One of the reasons why we need Modi for another 10 years at least. Touchwood and fingers crossed.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Peregrine wrote:...Nawaz Sharif Instituted the Scheme to take over the Locally held US Dollar Accounts in Terroristan to convert the US Dollars into Terroristani Rupees enable save the Country from the problems of Extremely Low Foreign Reserves. I think it was named Mulk Bachao Karaz Utaro.
yensoy wrote:I'm not sure of that particular scheme, but this did in fact happen in the aftermath of the nuclear tests of 98. Both India and Pak forex reserves were very low; India didn't forcibly convert any USD holdings (which would be mostly NRI accounts), in fact it did the opposite by getting dollar deposits from NRIs at high rates of return; Pak forcibly converted USD holdings into PKR at official rates, essentially decimating those accounts.
yensoy Ji :

Many thanks your reply. With your above information I have managed the following :
Sharif's popularity peaked in May 1998 after conducting the country's first nuclear weapons tests in response to tests by India. When Western countries suspended foreign aid, Sharif froze the country's foreign currency reserves and economic conditions worsened. The country became embroiled in conflicts on two borders and Sharif's long-standing relationships with the military establishment fell apart, so that by mid-1999 few approved of his policies.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Peregrine wrote:abhijitm Ji :

Do not forget the possibly Five Million Afghanistan Refugees rushing to Pakistan - the Payments by the UN in Aid to help these Refugees.

Cheers Image
abhijitm wrote:Movement of afghans to-from pakistan is due to civil war imposed on them by Taliban and pak army.

As I said, no clear example of population exodus (that too in millions) due to soverign bankruptcy. Fear of millions of pakistanis will cross our border because their economy collapse is misplaced. No worries, let them collapse, in fact lets ensure they collapse.
abhijitm Ji :

I bring the following to your noice :

Mexico : GDP : $ 1,511 Billion - Population 130 Million

Terroristan GDP : US$ 273.445 Billion - Population 220 Million

I do think there will a considerable number of Terroristani Mango Abduls with their Burqa Bilkis and Seven Nunha Munnas per Family!

As such - I beg to differ.

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Last edited by Peregrine on 18 May 2019 23:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Supratik »

You are dhoti shivering even before the speculated event happens. It is likely the forefathers will keep it alive as long as they can. Also US has a lot of space for mass immigration. Where is the space in India with 1.35 billion people. It is more likely the state will just crumble like Soviet Union and Yugoslavia into smaller and more manageable states. Depending on how long the forefathers spend their resources to keep it together.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Supratik wrote:You are dhoti shivering even before the speculated event happens. It is likely the forefathers will keep it alive as long as they can. Also US has a lot of space for mass immigration. Where is the space in India with 1.35 billion people. It is more likely the state will just crumble like Soviet Union and Yugoslavia into smaller and more manageable states. Depending on how long the forefathers spend their resources to keep it together.
Supratik Ji :

If wishes were Green Tamarind, I would have a Mother of Sore Throat!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Supratik »

Don't worry. Have curry. The Indian borderland facing Pak is very hostile to them except in Kashmir. No mumbo-jumbo mass immigration will take place.
It will simply break-up as economic stress will lead to ethnic stress. It is manageable.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »



Kekra-1: Exxon Mobil all set to pack up and leave - NEWS DESK

Image

Hours after Prime Minister Imran Khan told the nation to expect good news regarding the discovery of oil and gas reserves off Karachi coast, his special assistant on petroleum Nadeem Babar announced that offshore drilling in Kekra-1 well has been stopped owing to no oil reserves.

Amid much hype, Pakistan was hopeful of finding large oil and gas reserves in its territorial waters in the Arabian Sea.

The prime minister, on numerous occasions, said he was still hopeful that Pakistan would discover major gas reserves in offshore drilling being carried out in the Arabian Sea.

He said the nation could receive good news within two weeks. The prime minister asked the nation to offer special prayers so that the expectations attached to the drilling project come true. Imran Khan said, if found, the gas reserves would be enough to meet Pakistan’s needs for the next 50 years.

According to a report on May 15, a joint venture of four oil exploration companies completed the offshore drilling process after four months.

A consortium comprises of, Exxon Mobil, ENI, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Pakistan Petroleum Limited conducting the drill stem test to determine the real size of the oil and gas reserves in the Kekra-1 well, located around 280 kilometres away from Karachi, sources said.

The planned drilling of 5,470 meters was achieved at a cost of Rs14 billion.

The Drill Stem Test (DST) would be completed in the next three days. After the completion of the DST, a report will be prepared about the total quantity of the oil and gas reserves within a week, sources further said.

In initial estimates, the availability of around nine trillion cubic feet of gas with a large quantity of oil was assessed in the Kekra-1 well.

Due to the critical situations faced in the Kekra-1 well drilling, the exploration venture had to spend an additional $100 million in order to procure surplus steel and cement etc to drill the Kekra-1 well in another direction.

18th drilling attempt fails to find oil, gas reserves off Pakistan shore - Zafar Bhutta

ISLAMABAD: The 18th attempt to find hydrocarbons off the shore of Pakistan has been futile as no oil and gas reserves have been found.

Around four months ago, Italian firm ENI, the operator of the Kekra-1 offshore block, started drilling in a joint venture with US firm ExxonMobil — one of the world’s largest oil and gas firm — and the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL).

“However, after drilling up to over 5,000 metres, no reserves have been found,” a senior government official told The Express Tribune.

He added that Dutch firm Shell had also carried out offshore drilling 10 years ago but failed to find hydrocarbon reserves.

The official said the ENI, in partnership with other companies, had invested around $100 million and predicted a 13% success rate during drilling.

However, the official noted that India had found offshore reserves after 40 attempts.

“Therefore, Pakistan should continue its efforts to found reserves because there is a long area where reserves have been predicted. The drilling was made in ultra-deep waters some 280 kilometres away from Karachi coast.

The story will be udpated
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

You kufer don't give negative news. It is temporary and looks like YYY conspiracy and don’t worry Allah will send mound of gold in Baluchistan Mountains.

"AAP GHABHRANA NAHI !!!!!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

^Of course. One of the comments on that article even states that there is really a massive discovery, but it is being kept secret so that the Americans don't invade just like they have done every oil rich country. :((

The small fact that Exon Mobil is doing the drilling/discovery for them, does not count, when it comes to conspiracy theories to save H&D and maintain delusions of grandeur. :roll:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

This false news propagated by Kuffers. What do expect from American company ExxonMobil whose owner is Jewish and engineers who worked and tested sample are Indian. Don't you think it is YYY conspiracy?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

IK comes across like a bumbling village idiot. The drilling had progressed beyond 4500m and had halted due to some technical glitch (as one would expect, at such a great depth). Planned drilling was to 5000m. At around that time, IK told his people to wait because allah would bless them with massive petroleum reserves and they would be as rich as their arab benefactors/fourfathers. Drilling resumed, and eventually topped out at 5500m which is pretty deep. 100m USD spent, no sign of gas, except that emanating from IK.

It should be remembered that IK was their darling cricket captain. He thought the drilling company would score 6 6's in the last over and win the tournament. Real life isn't as exciting as cricket, unfortunately.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SSridhar »

The Pakis prove their swagger and bravado yet again !! OMG.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

I have argued on this forum that we could do financial damage to the Paki economy by importing commodities from them. It's counter-intuitive, and yes it is true, Dawn agrees https://www.dawn.com/news/1483223/rupee-overvaluation. The fact that they have entrenched commodity lobbies (rice, sugar,...) which will happily bankrupt their nation in order to make a few greenbacks has to be celebrated and used to our advantage.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Supratik »

We have to understand where the Pakis come from. The subcontinental M elites and their collaborators thrived on a system that terrorized and extracted wealth from the hard work of their non-M subjects. That is how they thrived for 1300-1400 years. Now that they have to generate wealth on their own they are clueless on what to do. They are hoping that like the Arabs they will get lucky.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sanjaykumar »

In other words, in Pakistan they have bitten off more than they can poo.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

yensoy wrote:I have argued on this forum that we could do financial damage to the Paki economy by importing commodities from them. It's counter-intuitive, and yes it is true, Dawn agrees https://www.dawn.com/news/1483223/rupee-overvaluation. The fact that they have entrenched commodity lobbies (rice, sugar,...) which will happily bankrupt their nation in order to make a few greenbacks has to be celebrated and used to our advantage.
How is importing commodities from Pakistan will help? These dont have significant dollar import component to make them exportable to India. Once we start importing Sugar from Pakistan we will help the Paki government to take subsidies off the Sugar domestically as Sugar plants will be able to utilize their full capacity.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by souravB »

CalvinH wrote:
How is importing commodities from Pakistan will help? These dont have significant dollar import component to make them exportable to India. Once we start importing Sugar from Pakistan we will help the Paki government to take subsidies off the Sugar domestically as Sugar plants will be able to utilize their full capacity.
Importing few items like cotton and sugarcane which require a lot of water to produce should be a start. Let them use their already scant resources. We move our farmers other produces like lentils and fruits. We can also use those raw produce that we import to export them finished value added product.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by saip »

Import cotton from Pakistan? How, when it buys cotton from us?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Water getting wasted into Arab Sagar is much preferable over the same water being wasted to gain foreign exchange from India.

Not doing trade with Pakistan provides better return for India over doing selective trade. See the decline of Pakistani cricket after India's refusal to play with Pakistan and us not allowing their players in IPL.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

It's not so simple. Please read the Dawn article. Inputs like water are scarce, and fertilizer has to be imported - and this import is happening with Pak dollar subsidy; yet the sale price is determined by world commodity prices, in fact less for us because of lower transport costs. On top of that, I am sure the Paki sugar barons are receiving their payments in dollars and keeping them overseas and only sending the bare minimum back to Pakiland which is icing on the cake since that money has exited the Paki economy.

We don't need to have our states fight for scarce water resources to grow commodities like sugar(cane) when instead they can grow dal, fruits and flowers for export (which fetches a lot of money).
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by dhyana »

Pakistan’s latest IMF bailout will not succeed without major cuts in the defense budget
(European Foundation for South Asian Studies)
The IMF requirement that Pakistan’s primary budget deficit, which is the total revenue minus non-interest expenditure, be brought down to 0.6% in next budgetary year from about 2% at present implies that the defense budget would ideally need to be clipped. Given the power dynamics in Pakistan and the country’s track record, it is almost certain that this will not happen and ways will be unearthed by the establishment to circumvent it. However, if the IMF was in a position to be intrusive enough to direct Pakistan to free its currency from central-bank control, it could also have directly demanded a cap on the country’s profligate defense budget by stipulating an annually decreasing proportion of the GDP that could be spent on defense.

By choosing not to do so, it has all but ensured that its current bailout package will achieve as little as earlier ones did, and that Pakistan will be knocking on its doors yet again, palms open, in the not too distant future.
The whole article reads like a 'greatest hits' compilation of the last year of this thread. Either somebody has been reading BRF or the plain truths about the hole that The Land of the Pure occupies is evident for everyone to see. Probably both.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Pak defence budget has been "affordable" to Pakistan because of continuous money transfusions from its benefactors, most importantly Unkil.

Unkil and Queen will resume these money transfusions if there is any overt threat from India that could result in destabilization or balkanization of Pakistan (even with a reluctant Trump in power). That's the way geopolitics works. Few billions thrown at Pakistan is a cheap insurance to keep a lid on India no matter how things have shaped up vis-a-vis China.

So it is important for us to stand down aggressive posturing; however "retaliatory ceasefire violations" can continue at low key, pounding the Paki forces at will, with deep, bloody and quick punishment in case of any terror attack. Also, defence purchases and infrastructure improvements can continue unabated on our side - with a side note now that we will not do business with any entity who is supplying the Pakis.

With Western money flows cut, the Pakis will be forced to do an equal-equal with India and continue to purchase toys from the remaining suppliers at basically monopoly prices demanded by the suppliers - which will mean inferior equipment at high prices. They will continue to drain their precious budget as they slide further into the abyss. A few years down, we can look forward to a Venezuela style bankruptcy, forcible denuclearization and internal revolts. But it has to happen at a pace of their own choosing.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by menon s »

KEKRA--1 ; DRILLING OVER. PIT CEMENTED. no oil/ no gas.
imran is proving himself to be a thorough idiot.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Kashi »

menon s wrote:KEKRA--1 ; DRILLING OVER. PIT CEMENTED. no oil/ no gas.
imran is proving himself to be a thorough idiot.
He's no different from his predecessors in this manner, counting chickens before they hatch.

How many times have we seen a Baki politico/newsperson/jarnail boast about a "game changing discovery" before it all comes a cropper?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Kashi wrote:
menon s wrote:KEKRA--1 ; DRILLING OVER. PIT CEMENTED. no oil/ no gas.
imran is proving himself to be a thorough idiot.
He's no different from his predecessors in this manner, counting chickens before they hatch.

How many times have we seen a Baki politico/newsperson/jarnail boast about a "game changing discovery" before it all comes a cropper?



now the welshers, instead of making the legitimate payment for the drilling, they are disputing the amount and going for arbitration in the UK, I think
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Kashi »

chetak wrote:now the welshers, instead of making the legitimate payment for the drilling, they are disputing the amount and going for arbitration in the UK, I think
Another typical Baki behaviour, they'll end up losing this as they have lost so many times in the past (Reko diq) and end up paying not just the fee owed, but penalty as well and legal costs on top of it.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by menon s »

KSE 100-----700 POINTS DOWN.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by dhyana »

Seven Implications Of IMF Program – Analysis (Eurasia Review)
But the party might just be coming to an end. If the press release of the Staff-level Agreement on Economic Policies between Pakistan and IMF is anything to go by – the detailed programme listing out the commitments that Pakistan will have to deliver on will only be unveiled after it is approved by the IMF board – the free lunches are over and Pakistanis will have to start paying their own bills. Far from being a bailout, the IMF programme is going to force extremely difficult and unpalatable reforms on Pakistan and confront it with the choice of ‘perform or perish’.
...
The prior actions, most of which will have to be included in the budget for the next fiscal, will involve slashing subsidies and exemptions, increasing revenues and cutting expenditures. The scale of the fiscal adjustments is daunting. According to reports in the Pakistani press, the government will have to collect anything between 30-35% more revenue.
...
Chances are that Pakistan won’t be black listed but will remain on the FATF grey-list for some more time. This will be a sword that will be kept dangling on Pakistan’s head to force compellence on it to shut down the jihad factory that has been running with impunity for decades.
...
Clearly, the screws are being turned on Pakistan by the IMF. Unlike the past when many concessions were given before and during the programmes, and Pakistan’s violation of the conditions were waived off, this time Pakistan is being forced to fulfil its commitments before the IMF gives a single dollar. There has been virtually no concession given to Pakistan which is being squeezed like never before. While this has a lot to do with the way Pakistan has managed its economy, it also has a lot to do with the changing strategic scenario in the region. The days when Pakistan was the most allied ally of the US are long gone. The choice before Pakistan is stark: it can either undertake extremely painful reform or else start to develop a taste for grass.
It's a shame- a damn shame. Of course, one can only hope Pakistan's enablers don't bail it out before the necessary IMF GUBO.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

The only thing that can save Pakistan is a war between US and Iran. Similar to the war on terror in Afghanistan.
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