Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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mody
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pa ... b1034e4108

Not sure if this should go in this thread or the Pakistani military news thead....but then again in Pakistan the military and the economy are too intertwined to make a difference. This news item aptly demonstrates the same. Bajwa and extended family become billionaires in 6 years!!!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Pakistan’s default risk worsens.
The perception of Pakistan’s risk of default has worsened with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) surging by 30 percentage points in a week to 93% on Monday ahead of the repayment of $1 billion for a maturing international bond early next month.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and many financial experts have reiterated that Pakistan will not default on any of the international payments and that volatility in the CDS had nothing to do with the country’s default risk.

However, a section of global and local experts and bond investors saw the rise in the CDS as a threat to their receivables.

Yields (rate of return) on the $1 billion international bond (Sukuk), which is maturing on December 5, 2022, soared to 120% on Monday from around 96% on Friday, indicating the investors’ lack of confidence in Pakistan whether it would be able to repay the maturing debt.

The yield was hovering at less than 10% before the Covid-19 outbreak in February 2020 in Pakistan, when the investors had high confidence in Pakistan’s capacity to repay them. Yields on the other two bonds worth a total of $2 billion maturing in 2024 and 2025 also increased during the day.

The developments came amid a delay in the ninth review of Pakistan’s economy by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which partly blocked the foreign currency flows into the country.

Accordingly, the foreign exchange reserves depleted to a critically low level of $8 billion against over $20 billion in August 2021, weakening the country’s capacity to make international payments.

Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas said that the “CDS is a premium that investors pay to insure their investment in bonds against the risk of default”. “This, however, should not be taken as an indicator of the risk of default.”

He hoped that Pakistan would receive billions of dollars in loans from the multilateral and bilateral creditors in December 2022. “Pakistan is expected to receive $6 billion to $8 billion from the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Saudi Arabia and in flood relief,” he said.

“Yes, some of the loans are attached with the clearance of IMF’s ninth review,” he said, adding that political uncertainty had added to the volatility. However, things would get normalised soon.

Rupee slides

The slow inflow of foreign loans compared to the estimates during July-October 2022 mounted pressure on the rupee against the
US dollar.

The domestic currency maintained its downtick for the sixth successive working day, falling by 0.22% (or Rs0.49) to a new six-week low at Rs223.66 against the greenback in the inter-bank market on Monday.

Pakistan could receive only $4.2 billion in new loans in the first four months of current fiscal year compared to estimates of around $7 billion, said Abbas.

The pressure on the rupee would go away with the receipt of new loans. The currency would stay around current levels in the short run, he said.
Alham-duh-lillah :P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

The pakis will repay the $1 billion bond maturing next week, as defaulting on the same would be catastrophic. However, the same will only add another nail in the coffin. However, the pakis will continue to survive just enough to be a nuisance for us. The 4 fathers will not let it die. The only option is to grow so big, that the pakis would wilt simply by our shadow.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Default fears keep rupee under pressure
KARACHI: The forthcoming repayment of $1 billion by Pakistan for a maturing Sukuk on December 5, 2022 has kept the rupee under pressure against the US dollar as the foreign exchange reserves continued to deplete over the past 11 months.

The domestic currency inched down by 0.05% (or Rs0.11) to a new six-week low at Rs223.92 against the greenback in the inter-bank market on Thursday.

A market expert pointed out that the forthcoming repayment of $1 billion had built pressure on the rupee. Earlier, the delay in International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) ninth review of its $6.5 billion loan programme led to the rupee’s depreciation for the second consecutive working day.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

State Bank of Pakistan raised the benchmark interest rates to 16% over the weekend. This is the highest rate since 1999, when the rates were raised to stem any capital outflows, in the wake of sanctions levied as a result of the nuke tests.
The KSE opened more than 700 points lower on Monday due to the increase in the interest rates.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Looks like desperation has set in. Pakistan is now taking high interest loans which are only a tiny fraction of total financing required for the year.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2388711/pa ... erest-rate
Pakistan gets $500m loan at 4.9% interest rate
These loans will help maintain the foreign exchange reserves at their current level of $7.9 billion ahead of $1 billion repayment on Friday.
Pakistan is also pursuing two Chinese commercial banks to fast track the process of refinancing their debts.
The developments came amid Pakistan’s inability to restart the International Monetary Fund programme that is again off-track for the fourth time in the past three years. The IMF has not yet been convinced with the data provided by Pakistan, according to the sources.
To recap, this was Ishaq Dar in October - https://www.dawn.com/news/1713282
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Monday said that he knew how to deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and no one had to worry about anything regarding it any more.
Back to the original article:
The AIIB loan has a maturity period of seven years, one of the shortest. Pakistan will pay an interest rate of around 4.9%, which also makes it one of the most expensive lending from a multilateral creditor
Pakistan does not have a choice but to take such expensive loans in order to meet this fiscal year’s estimated $34 billion foreign financing requirements.
Ishaq Dar on Tuesday also held a virtual meeting with Bank of China President Liu Jin, requesting him to refinance the $300 million maturing debt.
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had visited China and sought rollover of $6.3 billion debt, including $3.3 billion commercial loans. Pakistan has already paid back a $500 million loan to the Industrial Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which it is also now seeking to get back at the earliest.
:rotfl:
The rest of the article is mostly the finance minister praising Chinese banks and rulers in the hopes of getting rescued by Chinese banks. It's interesting that Chinese have not come to the rescue yet. What are they waiting for? Is the plan to create more desperation and get Pakistan to agree to all kinds of demands before rolling over debts?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Pakistan has lost $500 million due to loan repayment
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Anujan wrote:Pakistan has lost $500 million due to loan repayment
:lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Anujan wrote:Pakistan has lost $500 million due to loan repayment
:mrgreen: :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ritesh »

How this sorry of a country still exists may be an enigma to a bystander. However the combined powers of amerika Saudia Chyna Al Bartania etc. ensuring this thorn is ever present and keep Bharat bog down perpetually.

Can we afford to make a ukreen out of these pakis,, without suffering as much as Russian are presently?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

ritesh wrote:
Can we afford to make a ukreen out of these pakis,, without suffering as much as Russian are presently?
My view has always been that we should wait for Pakis to make a mistake like Kargil and then go all the way to reclaim our lost lands. Making the first move is not a good idea.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Something isn’t quite right with that article

US 2 year treasuries have a 4.5% yield. Pakistan is borrowing at 4.9% when massa is borrowing at 4.5% (Remember massa can print as many dollars as they want and therefore can never default?)

Also secured overnight finance rate + spread is all good, but the keyword here is “secured”. If you deposit treasuries as collateral, then they’ll give you a loan at SOF rate.

I think Pakistan has pledged its gold or some other asset. I don’t know how they got a 4.9% rate without that. Remember IMF loans have low interest rate (Pakistan got one at 3.2% in 2019 which was extended) because you have to agree to condition. How on earth did they get a unsecured unconditional loan at 4.9%.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Anujan wrote:Something isn’t quite right with that article

US 2 year treasuries have a 4.5% yield. Pakistan is borrowing at 4.9% when massa is borrowing at 4.5% (Remember massa can print as many dollars as they want and therefore can never default?)

Also secured overnight finance rate + spread is all good, but the keyword here is “secured”. If you deposit treasuries as collateral, then they’ll give you a loan at SOF rate.

I think Pakistan has pledged its gold or some other asset. I don’t know how they got a 4.9% rate without that. Remember IMF loans have low interest rate (Pakistan got one at 3.2% in 2019 which was extended) because you have to agree to condition. How on earth did they get a unsecured unconditional loan at 4.9%.
could it be that some ummah country would have provided the guarantee, after all many such camel owners are flush with the the loot from high oil prices
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

as per latest info. Paki state bank stop salary of embassy employee as there is very few dollars left !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

Anujan wrote:Something isn’t quite right with that article

US 2 year treasuries have a 4.5% yield. Pakistan is borrowing at 4.9% when massa is borrowing at 4.5% (Remember massa can print as many dollars as they want and therefore can never default?)

Also secured overnight finance rate + spread is all good, but the keyword here is “secured”. If you deposit treasuries as collateral, then they’ll give you a loan at SOF rate.

I think Pakistan has pledged its gold or some other asset. I don’t know how they got a 4.9% rate without that. Remember IMF loans have low interest rate (Pakistan got one at 3.2% in 2019 which was extended) because you have to agree to condition. How on earth did they get a unsecured unconditional loan at 4.9%.
You are right. A 4.9% interest rate for an unsecured loan seems way too low. India is borrowing at close to 7-7.5% on rupee denominated loans. For Pakistan the interest rate for unsecured loan would be close to 10% right now.

Either the loan is secured against some collateral, or it could be 4.9% above LIBOR or other such interbank rate. If it is 4.9% above Libor, then it would make sense.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

अपनी औकात में रहो
@ani_digital·15h

Russia refuses to give Pakistan 30-40pc discount on crude oil
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Sheer Chutzpah of the Porkis: They supply Ukraine with 155 MM shells to fight Russia, secure's military and financial aid/loan from USA and are now asking the Russians to supply them oil at substantial discount!!!!

I am surprised the Russians let off the Porki ministerial delegation so easily and did not humiliate them further.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

https://www.dawn.com/news/1724298/saudi ... sit-in-sbp

Saudi Arabia extends term for $3bn deposit in SBP
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has welcomed the extension...The premier thanked the Saudi government and Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman. “We deeply appreciate the love Prince Salman has for Pakistan.”....PM Shehbaz went on to say that the kingdom had, once again, played the role of an “elder brother”.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar also announced the extension on Twitter, ending it with “Long live Pak-Saudi friendship!”
Poll:

Who gets more extensions

(a) Pakistani Jernails
(b) Pakistani loan repayment deadlines
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Bakistan auto industry contributing to reduction of global warming with low sales

Yawn - Auto financing drops for fourth consecutive month
A massive increase in car prices, soaring interest rates, various measures by the SBP to slow down auto financing, plant shutdowns of various assemblers in the last few months owing to import curbs and delays in the delivery of vehicles have forced buyers to postpone their purchase decisions.

He said buyers have also restricted their purchases of new cars — a fact that’s evident by a huge fall in auto sales that dropped to 39,700 units in July-October.
Meanwhile Indian automobile sales for only October and that too only the top 20 models

Image
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Cotton production plunges to just 4.8m bales.

Cotton production has dropped by more than 40 per cent mainly because of climate change and floods giving a nightmare to the country’s ‘financial wizards’ as the foreign exchange-starved country will have to import about 7 million cotton bales to meet the textile industry’s demand this season.

The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Monday reported that cotton production remained 40.28pc less than the last year’s harvest by Dec 1, an alarming drop of 2.9m bales. Last year, Pakistan produced over 7.168m bales before the start of December against 4.28m bales this year.

Dollar-starved Pakistan will have to import 7m bales to meet industry’s demand (Mashallah, Subhanallah, Alhumduhhlilah)

During this period, the export of cotton was 4,900 bales, which is 11,100 bales or 69.38pc less than the export of 16,000 bales in the same period last year. Textile mills bought over 3.568m bales against 3.19m bales or 46.56pc less than last year’s purchases of around 6.7m bales. Ginners have a stock of 0.767m bales, 49.25pc higher than last year’s stock of 0.473m bales.

Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum chairman Naseem Usman told Dawn that the country will be able to produce barely 4.8m bales this season and 6 to 7m bales will have to be imported to keep the textile factories running.

Quoting cotton importers, he said that so far import agreements for about 5m bales had been made.

PCGA leader Javaid Suhail blames climate change, particularly heavy rains and floods in monsoon, for the drastic decline in cotton production. “At least 79pc cotton area, especially in Sindh, was hit by floods as gates of ginning factories could not open there this year.”

Only 2.01m hectares could be brought under the crop both in Punjab and Sindh against the combined 2.53m hectares target this season. Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, a farmers’ leader, said that cotton growers also didn’t follow good agriculture practices, while extension staff also misguided them about the use of herbal pesticides leading to a drop in crop output. :mrgreen:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstor ... 7f5f462c7a

Pakistan to open a revolving bank account to pay Chinese power producers. The preferential treatment for paying off Chinese debt, sure to rile the IMF.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pa ... 3197ef93e0

Chicken and egg prices could soar in Pakistan!!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Revolutionary leader Immy had foreseen this years ago and hence had launched a scheme to give free Murgis to the awaam

It is another thing that all the Abduls went home and got their ayeshas to make murg masalam and chicken biryani the same night..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2390048/pa ... -injection
Pakistan seeks emergency $3b Saudi cash injection
New COAS also expected to take up issue during his visit to kingdom
Situation appears bleak. Neither IMF nor China co-operating. Finance minister is running from one diplomatic mission to another seeking funds. Thankfully they are all in Islamabad saving airfare cost for the exchequer.

Fondly remember the time when PM Imran Khan played Uber driver to Saudi prince and secured $6B funds (cash + deferred oil payments). It was touted as a great victory and was celebrated like Pakistan won a cricket match against India. Now here we are back to square one. Still puzzling why China is not helping out here.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

I read somewhere that Pakistan will return this with interest in 2076, after it becomes an economic superpower in 2075.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Pratyush »

Ju means 3076, right?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Anujan wrote:I read somewhere that Pakistan will return this with interest in 2076, after it becomes an economic superpower in 2075.
SDRE's just don't understand 6th gen economic warfare..

Bakistan is switching totally to shariah compliant islamic banking within the next few years. Interest is haraam in Islam. So bakistan need not pay back any interest in 2076 or 3076 or whenever..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

Lets count how many foreign firms are leaving land of Pure.
Telenor is winding down
Pizza Hut left
Burger King stop business.
please add if you know more.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

The western world never told Pakis what is really needed to be in the top economies. Its just the population growth. Pakis could have been the top economies by now if this was known earlier.

World owes Pakistan money for all these lost decades.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

from todays yawn

It's katora time once again, many worthies in the govt would have already gone into their well practiced GUBO stance.

meanwhile, back at the ranch, the paki air chief with one and a half aircraft in his airforce, has two paki govt mercedes-maybachs, all to himself

Image

The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) plunged $784 million to a nearly four-year low of $6.72 billion during the week that ended on Dec 2, the central bank said on Thursday.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Lisa »

jash_p wrote:Lets count how many foreign firms are leaving land of Pure.
Telenor is winding down
Pizza Hut left
Burger King stop business.
please add if you know more.
Absolutely shocking. What to burn in a riot now?

P.S. Forgot, KFC is still there. Thank goodness.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Taliban in Afghanistan have backed use of Chabahar Port in Iran.

Taliban's Foreign Ministry "welcomed" proposal to include Chabahar Port in North-South International Transport Corridor connecting Mumbai to Moscow via Iran & Azerbaijan.

the cheenis and the pakis will both take a hit

Well played onlee, not withstanding the fact that the afghan talibanis are rank opportunists desperately hanging on to India for money, medicines and wheat (lots of wheat)


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 822478.cms


Taliban back usage of India-built Chabahar port, say ‘ready to provide facilities


The Taliban regime in Afghanistan have backed the use of the India-built Chabahar port in Iran and said that it is ready to provide all the necessary "facilities".

A statement issued by the Taliban's foreign ministry "welcomed" the proposal to include Chabahar port in the North-South International Transport Corridor that connects Mumbai to Moscow and passes via Iran and Azerbaijan. The statement highlighted that the regime stands "ready to provide all necessary protection and facilities in this regard."
Are the talibanis once again openly setting up to running a protection racket as before
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

How is PKR stable at 225 when when Paki Forex is at historic lows and IMF money has not come yet? Because global oil prices have cooled down?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Its the "reported price"

The question is, how many people have been able to purchase dollars at this price?

The actual market price is likely higher.

To get a real idea on what kind of Pakistan Pakistan's economy is in, you should look at the bond market and the credit default swap market. They are more pegged to reality.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/bon ... 1056560920

Image

Pakistan 8.5% bond maturing april 2024. The face value is $100.

If you buy this, on April 2024, Pakistan will give you $100, and a 8.5% interest every year till then. So if you buy this now, you will get 8.5$ in april 2023, 8.5$ in april 2024 and $100 from pakistan = 117$ by april 2024.

How much are you willing to pay now, to get $117 in 16 months? Let us assume you are greedy and want a unheard of 10% interest per annum. EPF rate in India is only 8% I do not think there is any other government guarateed savings product in India with a higher interest rate. So 10% sounds great. So $102 might be a fair price.

It is selling for $53 :rotfl: . So you can more than double your money in dollar terms in 16 months. Interested?

If you do some rough calculation. Assume 4% risk free rate (Massa is willing to give you 4% interest), Markets are expecting ~52% probability of default by April 2024.

I fully expect four fathers to step in and bail out Pakistan though. On top of it remember the age of old wisdom

"If Pakistan borrows $500m from China it is Pakistan's problem. if Pakistan borrows $25B from China, it is China's problem"
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rajsunder »

the actual situation on ground from social media
Image
one more, inflation of 100% within a year
Image
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chanakyaa »

Anujan wrote:...
It is selling for $53 :rotfl: . So you can more than double your money in dollar terms in 16 months. Interested?

If you do some rough calculation. Assume 4% risk free rate (Massa is willing to give you 4% interest), Markets are expecting ~52% probability of default by April 2024...
yeah, trading at a serious discount, but you also have a ~25% inflation baked in those numbers....more importantly, wonder how many have gamed this where govt. insiders with the help of offshore accounts scoop up this debt at half price at as soon as they get a hint that some IMF deal is reached refinancing debt at PAR. This will create plenty of millionaire baki jernails overnight...Bakis can always take comfort in fact that their inflation numbers are better than Turkiye and Argentina at 70+%
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

There's no inflation baked in. The bond is denominated in dollars.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40213984
“We are writing to communicate that Frontier Ceramics Limited has decided to shut down its floor tile production plant for an uncertain period due to gas supply shortage,” the company said in a statement.
On Friday, the management of Baluchistan Wheels Limited (BWHL) informed PSX that it had decided to temporarily close or stop production activity due to depressed demand of autos in the market.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

https://www.financialexpress.com/world- ... y/2911939/
In some areas, consumers have complained of hardly getting two hours of gas supply during the day. There have also been complaints about low gas pressure in many areas which means consumers are even unable to cook proper meals.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Paki elite have been living off stolen Gas from Baluchis by paying them nothing, it's time these freebies are cut off.
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