Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

partha wrote:So Pakistan only has reserves enough for 3 weeks of imports. IMF has found PKR 2 Trillion hole in the budget and IMF team is coming next week only for further discussions and a deal at this point is still not guaranteed. Will IMF funds come through in 3 weeks? Even if it does, it's a tiny amount of $1 Billion and it's not like officials in KSA, China, UAE have their fingers ready on the "send" button to transfer billions as soon as IMF deal is clinched so in 3 weeks Pakistan could get $1 Billion in the best case which is no where sufficient...
Hence the Anal-cysts from the RAPE classes are asking the Gormint to take a bigger begging bowl at this meeting itself...

Yawn - Editorial: Govt must seek to increase the size of IMF funding to avert a similar payments crisis in future
That the Fund is sending its officials to conclude the discussions on the pending review of the programme after three months and only after the State Bank lifted the administrative restrictions on the exchange rate to let the rupee discover its market value against the dollar shows that the government is unlikely to win any significant relaxations from it.

While it is crucial to seek immediate IMF funding to shore up its reserves, the government shouldn’t focus only on short-term relief.

The current loan package is set to end on June 30, and if there’s no new snag, we will get up to $3bn in funding from the lender. This may take care of our immediate balance-of-payments needs but will not be sufficient to cope with a similar payments crisis the next fiscal year and beyond. It is, therefore, advisable that the government seek to increase the size of IMF funding and the programme, and extend its duration.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

So starts the new match

Yawn - Dar announces 35-rupee hike in petrol price
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Sunday morning announced an Rs35 increase in the prices of petrol and diesel, which will be applicable from 11am today.

In a televised address, Dar said that speculation was rife on social media regarding an Rs50 increase in the prices of petrol and diesel. “Because of this, we have received reports of artificial shortages in the market.”

Fuel prices as of Jan 29, 11am:

Petrol: Rs 249.80 per litre
High-speed diesel: Rs 262.80 per litre
Kerosene oil: Rs 189.83 per litre
Light diesel oil: Rs 187 per litre

“The Pakistani rupee saw devaluation last week […] and now we are seeing an 11 per cent increase in the prices of petroleum products in the international market,” he said.
Downhill skiing is integral part of Dar-o-nomics
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ Prices still considerably cheaper than in India or US. How will it pencil out? Are they getting cheaper crude, or do they have magic refineries? Or is it coming out of potential tax revenues/subsidies?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Prices still considerably cheaper than in India or US. How will it pencil out? Are they getting cheaper crude, or do they have magic refineries? Or is it coming out of potential tax revenues/subsidies?
Strong rumors of another hike before IMF delegation visits.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Creative accounting, circular debts, trillion rupee holes in budgetary calculations - all hidden so far due to the aid from the generous fourfathers and their cousins.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Govt ready to unleash taxes worth Rs200bn to appease IMF
ISLAMABAD: The government has prepared two draft ordinances to impose Rs200 billion in new taxes, an official said on Saturday, days after the government accepted International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) demands to resume a stalled loan programme.

The government is also mulling discontinuing the power sector subsidy and unleashing sales tax on raw materials for the export sector, especially textile industrialists — measures that can ruffle the feathers of the PML-N’s core constituency in an election year. More hikes in electricity and gas tariffs are also on the agenda.
The two draft ordinances prepared by the country’s top tax machinery related to the imposition of Rs100bn taxes and an Rs100bn flood levy on imports.

“We have prepared both ordinances,” a tax official told Dawn, adding that there would be an increase in withholding tax rates and regulatory duty on luxury items. Besides, the massive devaluation of the rupee in the outgoing week is also expected to generate additional revenue for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

The flood levy, to be collected by the FBR at the import stage, will be used to bridge a shortfall in the petroleum development levy (PDL).

The IMF has estimated a shortfall of Rs300bn under the PDL and asked the finance ministry to increase this levy to Rs50 per litre on petrol and diesel from Rs35 at present. This decision was expected in the next review of petroleum prices on Jan 31, the source said, which could result in Rs20 to Rs40 per-litre hike in petroleum prices.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Long queues at petrol pumps across the country after price hike fears
ISLAMABAD: Rum­ours of a massive hike in petrol prices resulted in long queues at petrol pumps in many parts of the country on Saturday.

According to reports be­­ing shared on social media, the prices of petrol and diesel are expected to go up by anywhere bet­ween Rs45 to Rs80 on Feb 1.

“We saw a report on soc­ial media that oil prices will go up due to the surge in the dollar’s value and int­ernational petroleum rates,” Hassan, who queued at a petrol pump, told Dawn.

According to media rep­orts, a similar situation was experienced in other areas. Petrol was available at only 20 per cent of the pum­ps in Gujranwala, while severe shortages were also repo­rted in Rah­im Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Sialkot and Faisalabad, Geo News said.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

:lol:
Pakistan expresses interest in possibility of currency swap with Russia
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has reportedly expressed interest in the possibility of currency swap with Russia and signing of an agreement in this regard, well informed sources told Business Recorder.

Islamabad conveyed its intention during the eighth session of the Pakistan-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC) on Trade, Economic, Scientific, and Technical Cooperation held on January 18-20, 2023 in Islamabad.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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LPG hits historic high of Rs300/kg: LPGA demands setting up of probe commission
ISLAMABAD: A judicial commission should be formed to inquire into corrupt practices and people behind black marketing of LPG as it has touched a historic high of Rs300/kg across the country.

Although the fixed price of LPG by Ogra is Rs204 per kg, but on the contrary, the government-owned SSGC has increased the price of LPG per kg to Rs300 with rate of domestic cylinder increasing by Rs235 to Rs3,550 and the price of commercial cylinder has reached a high of Rs13,620, ie, up by Rs908.

Irfan Khokhar, chairman LPG Association slammed the “criminal” silence of Energy Ministry, Ogra, and SSGC over unabated overcharging of LPG, adding that in the ongoing crisis, the state-owned gas company has become a mafia, by making illegal profits of 0.1 million rupees per tonne of LPG as 5,000 tonnes of LPG is sold in the country every day. The mafia and black marketers are minting millions. He again stressed on a thorough judicial inquiry into this highly serious matter.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Does this mean Paki awaam is now half-Jain?

Yawn - Onion rates rise to Rs 320 per kilo on short supply
Onion sells at R s250 per kg in Karachi while in other parts of the country the rate hovers between Rs 200-320 due to limited arrivals from Sindh and Balochistan crops and additional taxes on import of the staple food item from Jan 1.

Besides, the arrival of onions from Afghanistan and Iran has also stopped due to crop issues there while consumers are now preparing their daily food dishes from Egypt, Turkish and Chinese onions. As the crop in these countries is coming to an end, imports are also being made from Dubai. #In other words, from India?#

He said markets are receiving little quantities of 25,000-30,000 tonnes from Balochistan and Sindh crops against the monthly national demand for 150,000 tonnes. “At least 100,000 tonnes may stabilise or bring down the onion rates,” he added. “Onion may maintain a bullish trend as the massive rupee devaluation will push up transportation costs amid a likely hike in diesel and petrol prices,” Waheed feared.
What will happen first - Paki rupaiya hitting 300/dollar or Paki onions hitting 500/kg?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Brad Goodman »

Pakistan has a debt of $128B and out of this $23B is due this year. Even after discounting what they need to pay Saudis or Emiratis which might get rolled over they still need $12-15 Billion just pay debt. There is $4B of pure interest they need to pay. Hoodbhuy was talking about economic reforms but what will that acheive, why would anyone want to come to paki lands to invest? not like they have huge educated workforce to do IT or BPO work. Most are just Arts & Commerce grads from cities and vast majority is madarsa pass with Arabic and Shariah interpretations.
They could be ok for say small scale factories but the issue is Fauji foundation never let market economy operate freely in paki lands which would challenge their near monopoly in all those business.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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yensoy wrote:^^^^ Prices still considerably cheaper than in India or US. How will it pencil out? Are they getting cheaper crude, or do they have magic refineries? Or is it coming out of potential tax revenues/subsidies?
For years they got Oil from Saudis in deferred payments, politicians when see an opportunity will not care of long term implications and use it to get votes
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Brad Goodman »

I am not sure if this point was discussed here before but something that occurred to me while I was watching some old programs. We always think of Pakis having 3.5 fathers who have been endlessly bashed here. What we never discussed was actually it was 4.5 the missing dad was India. Let me elaborate why I say that.

Since its inception in 1947 we have been deeply subsidizing its existence. The obvious ones is the money we remitted when transfer of assets took place, giving away places like Lahore or much bigger share compared to population did not partition Sindh etc those are obvious and everyone know, but look at late 50s and early 60s we did Indus water treaty and gave them 80% of water with no strings attached, now as if that was not enough we also pledged to give them 6.5M pound sterlings to rebuild waterworks on western rivers. This is when we ourselves were begging across the world for money.

Lets move to 70s and spectacular Indira economics. We completely destroyed all white goods in India and that entire sector went underground relying on smuggling. Whether it was high end clothes, cosmetics, cigarettes, electronics, gold or currency everything was handed to smugglers, where were these smugglers getting stuff from the obvious answer is Dubai but think of Dubai of 70's it was still a backwater. Who was supplying these goods to these illiterate smugglers these were getting imported from somewhere by some shell company that was buying them in dollars and selling them to smugglers and collecting cash. All this was in my mind done by Paki smugglers who were handled by ISI and Fauj. As we move into 80s we added drugs to the mix to swell their purses

As we get into 90's Indian economy itself started to stutter and as we opened economy we were forced to kill this business. What did we do at this point? If you observe that is when Paki economy started to downhill ski. They still were sending drugs, weapons etc collect some shares from extortion of builders and bollywood, they got overseas rights of bollywood movies organized shows abroad, but that was just a trickle. They still controlled / regulated the hawala network also perhaps all the moving of dollars/ euros into swiss banks was done using their network

Their biggest reward came post 2004 when Chidu and mafia queen gave them the ability to print FICN. This was freaking windfall for them. They could not just destabilize India they could practically subsidize all their imports from India by just printing notes and paying for onions and tomatoes.. This kept things very well for them for long long time. The party ended in 2016 when we not just printed new notes but pushed into digital transactions this effectively dried the river for them and they could not recover from it.

This missing daddy needs to be studied and discussed.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

@yajnadevam
Replying to
@Hiranyareta
Its much more obvious how PKR rapidly started losing value right after demonetization
Image
srikandan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by srikandan »

Brad Goodman: What we never discussed was actually it was 4.5 the missing dad was India.
Makes sense. Going by events that seriously degraded India's internal security, the top echelons of the INC joined the 3.5 when Home Minister of INC govt. was instrumental in the bloodbath in J&K in the 90s, and the anti-India forces started to politically consolidate in J&K (Abudullahs+Muftis). Before this, during the Nehru/IG years, paki economy was kept afloat by the 3.5 and possibly by "ganga-jemuni-testtube" behavior on the Indian side by the usual suspects.

Paki-assistance accelerate when the Sonia Brigade came to power in 2004, when (as reported more recently) they assisted the Paki govt. in creating fake indian currency to by pushed into India, and then 2008 to push "hindu terror", followed by PC as finance minister reopening the paki-counterfeit-project door in 2012 that Pranabji closed in 2009, not to mention stone-pelting and resurgence of terrorism in J&K post 2010 (clearly with the willing collusion of the INC, going by pappu's behaviour during his yatra). BJP win in 2014 stopped this disastrous path, but Modiji's "congress mukth bharat" makes a lot of sense going by the treachery of this national party in the past decades.

It turns out that India was Pakistan's biggest benefactor of the 4.5 post 2004 -- definitely something that needs to be looked at under bright sunlight in the coming years/decades.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by VKumar »

Brad Goodman wrote:I am not sure if this point was discussed here before but something that occurred to me while I was watching some old programs. We always think of Pakis having 3.5 fathers who have been endlessly bashed here. What we never discussed was actually it was 4.5 the missing dad was India. Let me elaborate why I say ...


This missing daddy needs to be studied and discussed.
Excellent!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SBajwa »

Manish_P wrote:Does this mean Paki awaam is now half-Jain?

Yawn - Onion rates rise to Rs 320 per kilo on short supply
Onion sells at R s250 per kg in Karachi while in other parts of the country the rate hovers between Rs 200-320 due to limited arrivals from Sindh and Balochistan crops and additional taxes on import of the staple food item from Jan 1.

Besides, the arrival of onions from Afghanistan and Iran has also stopped due to crop issues there while consumers are now preparing their daily food dishes from Egypt, Turkish and Chinese onions. As the crop in these countries is coming to an end, imports are also being made from Dubai. #In other words, from India?#

He said markets are receiving little quantities of 25,000-30,000 tonnes from Balochistan and Sindh crops against the monthly national demand for 150,000 tonnes. “At least 100,000 tonnes may stabilise or bring down the onion rates,” he added. “Onion may maintain a bullish trend as the massive rupee devaluation will push up transportation costs amid a likely hike in diesel and petrol prices,” Waheed feared.
What will happen first - Paki rupaiya hitting 300/dollar or Paki onions hitting 500/kg?
With Ramzan starting on March 22nd and the day fasting with Iftar parties both PRupe and Poni are running neck to neck.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Citizens term fuel price hike unbearable
LAHORE: A number of citizens on Sunday termed unbearable the increase in the prices of petroleum products announced by the government.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, they expressed fear that the decision would result in another wave of inflation and the transportation cost of all goods would increase. Amid an existing burden of exorbitant prices of essential items, the increase in fuel expenses would intensify the financial difficulties of daily wage earners, students and others traveling by public transport.

Muhammad Arif and Muzammil, who work in government and semi-government offices and were buying petrol for their vehicles, said the ruling parties had made claims before coming to power that they would bring under control the inflation and provide relief to the people. However, due to the increase in the prices of petroleum products, their financial problems were increasing, they complained.

A labourer, Muhammad Kashif, said the daily wage earners would be the worst affected by the increase in petrol prices. The daily wage of a labourer is only a few hundred rupees and the government is increasing the price of petrol repeatedly without thinking about his plight.

He said the life of common people was becoming difficult. A student of a private university, Ambreen, said the increase in the fuel prices would add to her financial problems as the transport fare would rise and they would have to bear the addition cost daily.

A customer at a petrol filling station, Muhammad Jameel, expressed fear that not only would the financial problems of the commuters increase, but the resultant price hike could also result in an increase in crimes and corruption.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Time for Pakis to rename their currency to DJinnar to appease their Arap fathers and confuse kuffars
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Default seems to be slowly but steadily becoming a strong possibility.
Post-default Pakistan: a scenario
ISLAMABAD: While it is unlikely that Pakistan would default on its debt, not due to the economic health and cost but rather the anticipated social and strategic backlash that the stakeholders are concerned with. However, in case of default, following is an anticipated scenario.
First day: It would be total standstill in the country except the national media running continuous news and analyses and international media carrying this as a major story. For the government, it would be an emergency situation and they would try to comprehend and manage the situation.

International development partners and donors would start working on their approach towards Pakistan, depending on the size of their respective debt or support.

First week: Markets and businesses, getting out of the temporary standstill, will start feeling the heat and facing the signals of this default and we will start seeing the indications of an economic meltdown in the form of business closures, job cuts, etc.

The government would try to manage this situation by controlling the perception in media and the opinions related to default. Contacts with lenders and other development partners will be initiated in order to calm them down.

Signs of social unrest may start appearing, mainly due to a disproportionate hike in prices, particularly of imported goods. Mismanagement or low stocks of petrol may exacerbate the chaos.

First month: It is quite likely that economic meltdown will start manifesting its impact with the cessation of imports, ban on development expenditure, reduction in essential public sector expenditure, business closures and huge layoffs from industrial and services sectors.

Due to uncertainty, many of the citizens would try to get their savings and investments out of the banking and financial system, and it would further exacerbate the situation, including the closure of some of the financial institutions.

On the governance side, there may be a new narrative to find an alternative government or governance model that could withstand such a situation. The incumbent government may not be able to manage the perception, social unrest and strategic positioning resulting from the default.

First quarter: The first quarter would be quite challenging in terms of assessing the magnitude of the loss that the economy would feel due to this default.

More importantly, economic pain and social unrest would be felt widely and provide an opportunity for some of the politicians to build upon this unrest and manifest their power through harnessing the negative sentiment and urging public uprising.

On the economic front, there will be a huge flight of capital, whatever would have been left. We would see an overbooking of flights towards Dubai and similar destinations with passengers fully utilising their allowance to carry foreign exchange. Prices would be out of control and the rupee would be depreciated considerably within the first quarter.

First year: GDP of Pakistan would shrink significantly. While some of the industries and services would resume their activities, import-dependent sectors would have to wait much longer. Due to a considerable hike in energy prices, the cost of production will go very high and unsustainable in many sectors.

Within first year, there could be change of government, or even governance model. It would be time to redraw the economic governance system without which it would be impossible to get out of the crisis.

International partners would probably start focusing back by seeing some of the possibilities and pathways to bail Pakistan out of such a crisis. However, this support would be with huge conditionalities, including from friendly countries. Renegotiations with donors and lenders for getting some lifeline would be almost one-sided with very little leeway for Pakistan.

First generation: This could be the first generation that would see the first debt default by Pakistan. It would face a serious consequence in terms of loss of trust and hope in the economic system and opportunities.

It would be particularly harmful for the youth who were ready to enter into the job market or the businesses or entrepreneurship. They would start looking beyond borders, resulting in yet another brain drain.

The only saving factor is that due to global economic slowdown, the usual destination markets for such brains may not be welcoming enough. In any case, it may not be out of place to say that we might see a lost generation due to this debt default crisis.

While the economic cost of default is quite significant, with right mitigation policies and recovery mechanisms, we might see some hope or light at the end of the tunnel to get back to normal in a few years.

However, the biggest cost or loss would be social unrest in the context of existing income and wealth inequality. This may lead towards a serious situation and become an internal security crisis. Given the situation on our borders, and hard-line forces already operating within the country, it may become much deeper and chaotic than one could anticipate.

Therefore, it is not just the economic cost of default that we need to pay attention to, it is also the social and internal security cost that we have to be ready for. Moreover, it would be not a short-term cost or phenomenon but quite long term and deep rooted, with slow and painful recovery.


In this context, I still believe that it is less likely that Pakistan would default as internal and external stakeholders anticipate this social and security costs, in addition to economic, and they would do their best to avoid such a scenario.
Last edited by Dilbu on 30 Jan 2023 15:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

vimal wrote:Time for Pakis to rename their currency to DJinnar to appease their Arap fathers and confuse kuffars
They may actually do this , sticking with sdre rupee is the root cause of their financial problems
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Dilbu wrote:Default seems to be slowly but steadily becoming a strong possibility.
ISLAMABAD: While it is unlikely that Pakistan would default on its debt, not due to the economic health and cost but rather the anticipated social and strategic backlash that the stakeholders are concerned with. However, in case of default, following is an anticipated scenario.
First day: It would be total standstill in the country except the national media running continuous news and analyses and international media carrying this as a major story. For the government, it would be an emergency situation and they would try to comprehend and manage the situation.

International development partners and donors would start working on their approach towards Pakistan, depending on the size of their respective debt or support.

However, the biggest cost or loss would be social unrest in the context of existing income and wealth inequality. This may lead towards a serious situation and become an internal security crisis. Given the situation on our borders, and hard-line forces already operating within the country, it may become much deeper and chaotic than one could anticipate.

Therefore, it is not just the economic cost of default that we need to pay attention to, it is also the social and internal security cost that we have to be ready for. Moreover, it would be not a short-term cost or phenomenon but quite long term and deep rooted, with slow and painful recovery.


In this context, I still believe that it is less likely that Pakistan would default as internal and external stakeholders anticipate this social and security costs, in addition to economic, and they would do their best to avoid such a scenario.
Folks, what would the Pak army be thinking now ? I know they cant see beyond their next gosht biryani time, but in the off chance they do, do they step in if default is declared. ?
Will Pakis see politicians being responsible and army stepping in as saviour? Is there any credibility left for Army at all or will the populace turn against the Army too?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SidSoma »

In All this remember that Pakistan took delivery of J10 aircraft from China some time last year. I dont think the Army cares about any of this ....for now
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hgupta »

SidSoma wrote:In All this remember that Pakistan took delivery of J10 aircraft from China some time last year. I dont think the Army cares about any of this ....for now
They may when it starts impacting their lifestyle. They may get weapons from China for free or very low prices but the Chinese will surely give any more freebies. Besides Pakistan needs gas and China does not have gas to give away. Without gas & fuel, their shiny new Chinese weapons are nothing but collectible items.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Paki Military must live in cantonments where everything is available, they can cull their own population time to time to keep control.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Nsmith »

Prices go through the roof, crushing salaried class behind

THE white collar workers have been forced to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. In some cases three meals a day have been cut down to two. The slightly better-off ones have shifted from cars to two-wheelers. Small business owners have taken up part-time jobs with ride-hailing cabs. This may sound like something out of the Great Depression, but this is today’s Pakistan. Dawn spoke to a cross-section of salaried class people and none appeared to be immune from the recent currency shocks and the overall economic downturn.

“In such backbreaking inflation, I have removed my children from a regular school and admitted them to a lower quality one whose fee is 70 per cent less. From using olive oil for cooking due to health reason we have shifted to regular oil. After this political instability and governments changing frequently, we are now forced to use low quality products.

Electricity bills have doubled in the last year and a half. The petrol price inflation has hit so hard that from driving a car I have now moved to a motorbike since June. Now we’re hearing the prices of every basic commodity are going to increase further, so I’m wondering if I’d even be able to afford a bicycle" :(( , says Ali Mohsin, who runs a small hair salon on Ferozepur Road.

“I make Rs29,000 a month and my monthly grocery costs at least Rs25,000. I need 60kg flour and 8kg ghee every month :eek: [is he running a household or a madrassa?], while expenses like education are secondary when basic food needs can’t be fulfilled. In such extreme circumstances my family has had to skip a meal and we only have two meals a day now. Petrol is so expensive that I can’t even afford to travel on my motorbike and for most chores I’m compelled to walk over the last 3-4 months. And this is after working two jobs. Since the PTI government took over, a Rs1,000 note feels like just Rs10. The prices of every utility and food items are set to shoot up drastically, and I’m afraid people might resort to robberies,” complains Muhammad Shahzad, a technical employee with a media organisation.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1734337/situa ... ass-behind
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Nsmith wrote:
...

“I make Rs29,000 a month and my monthly grocery costs at least Rs25,000. I need 60kg flour and 8kg ghee every month :eek: [is he running a household or a madrassa?],...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1734337/situa ... ass-behind
Yes. Seems high even factoring that this abdul will probably have 5-6 kids.

Is his income pre or post ZDS (Zakat Deducted at Source). He should be thankful income tax is haraam in islam/bakistan.

Also from the same article
“If I was earning Rs 30,000 a month 10 years ago, I was comfortable, but now even Rs 150,000 a month from two jobs feels less because of the rates of essential items increasing rapidly. And at the end of every month, I’m standing at zero balance. My biggest expense is petrol because even if one of the schools I work in is five minutes away from home, I can’t walk to it because of safety concerns. If the country was safe enough for women I could have walked to it, saving whatever amount I spend on fuel. Public transport is also highly costly because of mounting petrol prices,” Sana Ali, a teacher
Hain? She can't even walk for 5 minutes for fear of safety?? i thought pious bakistan was totally safe for wimmens... isn't she wearing a burkha.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pak Currency Spirals Further, Plummets To Record Low Of 270 Against Dollar
Pakistan's currency continued its dramatic downward spiral for the third straight day, plummeting to a record low of 270 against the US dollar, as the government surrendered its control over the exchange rate to meet demands of the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, for a bailout. The cash-strapped nation is in desperate need of monetary aide to tide over the economic crisis.

The currency was devalued by 7.50 PKR (or 2.77%) to a new all-time low at 270.10 PKR against the US dollar on the third consecutive day of free-fall, The Express Tribune reported. Cumulatively, it has slumped by 39.21 PKR (or 14.50%) in the three days to date compared to Wednesday's close at 230.89 PKR.
Neela
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Govt machinery grinding and stalling...
@Natsecjeff
https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1 ... 6137312295
Air Cargo Agents Association of Pakistan:
The government has been forewarned that all export cargoes by air could come to a halt as foreign airlines are considering stopping their services for Pakistan after banks stopped remitting freight charges for lack of $ availability.

And Right on cue...
@NepCorres
https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/16 ... 9245941761
Prison Break in #Pakistan. District jail Gujrat is broken & has been set on fire by inmates.Gunshots heard.Nearly 200 hard core criminals have reportedly fled the jail.After Food, Water and #poweroutage, Pakistan is now facing grave law and order situation
@gauravcsawant
https://twitter.com/gauravcsawant/statu ... 4494681089
17 dead.
90+ injured.
Massive explosion in mosque in #Peshawar Police Lines.
Unfortunately casualties cud rise.Several feared trapped in debris of mosque.
A section of mosque has collapsed.
Suspected suicide bombing.
Blast in high security Police lines area.
#Pakistan #army joins
Get ready folks....this thread is going to blow up.
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Towels are being thrown left, right and center.
Economy: it has only gotten worse
Pakistan’s economic skeleton and the institutional flesh have for long been developed and nurtured on control mechanisms. That is an inherently flawed mechanism. Food price control is left to the district management. The argi produce price decision is of provincial governments. Industrial winners are handpicked, and the infancy protection continues perpetually.

The gauge to measure the success of any finance minister is the ability to control exchange rate and the central bank in general. Capital controls are kept tight while back-door illegal channels are nurtured. The government’s performance was gauged on how effective it is in keeping energy prices low without any regard to the global prices. In the process, deteriorating quality of health, education, and environment was never allowed to take primacy in the political and power discourse.

Now it is haunting us. The economy perhaps can no longer be sustained without public debt restructuring. It is a foregone conclusion. However, when we would go to debtors, they may ask that a similar exercise was done a couple of decades back, and what have you as a nation learned from the previous experience? What structural changes did you make after being allowed the fiscal space? The question is why would the world help out a habitual rent seeker.
The focus of political governments remained on building physical infrastructure and expropriation of funds from these to fund elections. In certain cases, the money generated through illegal means is being used to purportedly establish media houses to protect their rents and accumulated wealth. It’s all becoming blatant and naked.

The world can see through it. The world is not ready to bail the elite out again. Power hubs in the country who historically relied on geopolitical rents and expanded their economic interests though domestic economic skewed structures need to realize that the party is over. They need to act accordingly, otherwise time is not far before their bubble is burst as well.
There would be another round of big energy price increases. Inflation is bound to increase and so is the case with interest rates.

Even with this review completion, there is a full stop by July. And to counter that, a new program is inevitable with a possible plan of debt restructuring. Here, the IMF and bilateral lenders may ask the power elite — including establishment, to confine their space financially. There would be no smooth transition. Be ready for some turbulence.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by VipinM »

Reading this thread makes my heart leap with joy. Me and my brethren were thrown out of Kashmir and sole reason is this shitty country.

Pakistan is next Somalia for sure.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Somwhere MKG must be weeping seeing his handiwork being destroyed by kuffars.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RCase »

Paki Rupee is fit to be used in the pakistan!
Toilet roll prices on Amazon in the US costs about $0.21 - $0.51 per 100 sheets. Works out to $0.0021 - $0.0051 per sheet.
270 PKR = 1 USD
1 PKR = 1/270 = $0.0037
Well, now you can afford to have Jinnah's image make your backside pak!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

vimal wrote:Somwhere MKG must be weeping seeing his handiwork being destroyed by kuffars.
Please, Pak was doomed to fail. It was predicted by all. And partition was a good thing really, please read up Dr Ambedkar's treatise in this matter.
Where we went wrong was in further population transfer (and no I don't mean 100%) or retaining more lands in Sind/Punjab but we hardly had any say in the matter at that point in time. It's easy to look back and pass judgment but ask yourself, was MKG calling the shots? Was Mountbatten? Or Jinnah? Or the rioters in the street? This was a grand compromise, that is all. Partition may rankle for us, but imagine a country where peacefuls were 40% of the population and rapidly rising.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Image

Boys played very well. Put 270 on the board. Hopefully the pinch hitters exploit the concluding overs before IMF visit and put 30 more on the board for a 300
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

yensoy wrote:
vimal wrote:Somwhere MKG must be weeping seeing his handiwork being destroyed by kuffars.
Please, Pak was doomed to fail. It was predicted by all. And partition was a good thing really, please read up Dr Ambedkar's treatise in this matter.
Where we went wrong was in further population transfer (and no I don't mean 100%) or retaining more lands in Sind/Punjab but we hardly had any say in the matter at that point in time. It's easy to look back and pass judgment but ask yourself, was MKG calling the shots? Was Mountbatten? Or Jinnah? Or the rioters in the street? This was a grand compromise, that is all. Partition may rankle for us, but imagine a country where peacefuls were 40% of the population and rapidly rising.
Ok. I dont see the correlation of my post to your's
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2398545/pa ... egin-today
Pakistan, already hurt by the unfulfilled commitments made by foreign nations promising cash deposits worth $5 billion, will today (Tuesday) lock horns with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in one of the toughest negotiation sessions ever to revive the $6.5 billion bailout package.
Brave TFTAs facing IMF chest out to lock horns and fight!
The country now has foreign reserves worth only $3.1 billion left, sufficient only to cover two-weeks of imports.
Take a guess how that is going to go.
The options are to either increase the electricity prices against these excessive subsidies, amounting to a total Rs216 billion, or increase taxes to pay for the subsidies. This is in addition to the increase in price required on account of fewer subsidies, less recovery of electricity bills and higher than permissible line losses.
Only a few weeks till the famous Raakit Mards are out on the street. People here in Pee-aref have not seen Rakit Mards for so many years. We missed them.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

After record jump in a day, petrol hits all-time high
ISLAMABAD: Pakistanis woke up on Sunday to a record single-day hike in the petrol price — which also now stands at an all-time high of around Rs250 a litre — after the government moved to address a run on filling stations fuelled by shortage fears, especially in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

However, the government had little success in smoothing out a fragile supply chain that has been on edge for weeks due to a shortage of foreign exchange.

The Rs35 per-litre increase in the price of petrol — along with a similar jump in the prices of high-speed diesel (HSD), and a Rs18 rise in light diesel oil (LDO) and kerosene rates — came three days before the scheduled fortnightly announcement.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Subsidies, security costs ‘on chopping block’ to placate IMF
ISLAMABAD: The government may have to withdraw energy subsidies to big export industries, besides cutting non-salary, non-essential civil and security costs as part of harsh reforms required to obtain the International Monetary Fund’s consent for an economic bailout that ensures soft landing for the poor and vulnerable.

Senior government officials said IMF mission chief for Pakistan Nathan Porter had already arrived in Islamabad to start a technical discussion with authorities on Tuesday (today), which would continue till Friday (Feb 3).

The second phase of policy negotiations would continue till Feb 9 to finalise a memorandum of economic and financial policies (MEFP).
Pakistan requires about $8-9bn during the remaining five months of the current fiscal year to meet international obligations and currently the reserves held by the central bank are slightly over $3bn.

That means the two sides would to find a way to finance over Rs803bn worth of financing gap in the power sector with an average tariff increase of about Rs7.50 per unit, hike in petroleum levy on all products to Rs50 from existing Rs40, fresh additional revenue measures in the range of Rs500-700bn through a mini-budget.

The increase in gas prices was not part of the IMF’s previous benchmarks, but over Rs1.6tr circular debt in the sector risks the gas companies and is a looming burden on the already runaway fiscal deficit, and hence would become part of the talks.

This had been reinforced by the IMF which made it clear that “stronger policy efforts and reforms are critical to reduce the current elevated uncertainty that weighs on the outlook, strengthen Pakistan’s resilience, and obtain financing support from official partners and the markets that is vital for Pakistan’s sustainable development”.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:Subsidies, security costs ‘on chopping block’ to placate IMF
ISLAMABAD: The government may have to withdraw energy subsidies to big export industries, besides cutting non-salary, non-essential civil and security costs as part of harsh reforms required to obtain the International Monetary Fund’s consent for an economic bailout that ensures soft landing for the poor and vulnerable.

Senior government officials said IMF mission chief for Pakistan Nathan Porter had already arrived in Islamabad to start a technical discussion with authorities on Tuesday (today), which would continue till Friday (Feb 3).

The second phase of policy negotiations would continue till Feb 9 to finalise a memorandum of economic and financial policies (MEFP).
Pakistan requires about $8-9bn during the remaining five months of the current fiscal year to meet international obligations and currently the reserves held by the central bank are slightly over $3bn.

That means the two sides would to find a way to finance over Rs803bn worth of financing gap in the power sector with an average tariff increase of about Rs7.50 per unit, hike in petroleum levy on all products to Rs50 from existing Rs40, fresh additional revenue measures in the range of Rs500-700bn through a mini-budget.

The increase in gas prices was not part of the IMF’s previous benchmarks, but over Rs1.6tr circular debt in the sector risks the gas companies and is a looming burden on the already runaway fiscal deficit, and hence would become part of the talks.

This had been reinforced by the IMF which made it clear that “stronger policy efforts and reforms are critical to reduce the current elevated uncertainty that weighs on the outlook, strengthen Pakistan’s resilience, and obtain financing support from official partners and the markets that is vital for Pakistan’s sustainable development”.
the stoopide pakis think that the IMF is already in the bag, as far as the loan is concerned and they are desperately trying to keep those incentives that would help them to win the forthcoming general elections.

paki army jernails, well one jernail in particular, messed big time up in moving too quickly to oust niazi.

a good portion of the blame for the sorry state of the economy and the mess that it has created will fall on the jernails as well.

they should have waited and really made sure that the noose was tightened around niazi's neck
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