Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Neela wrote:
We are going around in circles. Gelf countries are recommending IMF plan. IMF asks Pakis to get the gap funded by Gelf countries.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saud ... -money-end


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NRao
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by NRao »

Saudi Arabia tells Pakistan: No more easy money
Saudi Arabia's decision to refuse to provide any further bailouts or interest-free loans to Pakistan has left the government in Islamabad in shock and has prompted the finance minister to complain that even friendly countries aren’t keen on helping Pakistan out of its economic emergency.

Pakistan is in dire need of sustained US dollar inflows to avoid defaulting on nearly $80bn of international loan repayments over the next three and a half years. The country is currently sitting on just $3bn in foreign exchange reserves.

'Saudi Arabia is on a different course now. They've reset their relationship with other countries...'

Pakistan is also locked in difficult negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its 13th bailout package since the 1980s.

If an agreement isn’t struck soon, Pakistan will find it increasingly difficult to secure international loans, as its credit rating has been downgraded to junk.

Analysts privy to recent developments have told Middle East Eye that Saudi Arabia has conditioned fresh interest-bearing loans and investment on Pakistan implementing strict monetary and fiscal reforms along with a drastic reduction in its current account deficit - conditions similar to those set by the IMF.

Umar Karim, associate fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, said Pakistani authorities are in a state of shock.

“While previously Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries would bail Pakistan out off the back of a phone call from the foreign minister or the prime minister, this time around they are really being put through the mill,” Karim told MEE.

It is believed that on a recent trip, even the Pakistani military chief couldn't convince Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to release emergency funding for the country.

Karim believes this sets a new precedent. “The Pakistani military chiefs have previously been a source of assurance to friendly countries, but the Saudis have now had enough of Pakistan's civilian authorities squandering away these handouts,” he said.

New world order

At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the Saudi finance minister made the kingdom's new policy very clear.

Mohammed al-Jadaan said: “We used to give direct grants and deposits without strings attached and we are changing that. We are working with multilateral institutions to actually say we need to see reforms.”

“We are taxing our people, we are expecting also others to do the same, to do their efforts. We want to help but we want you also to do your part.”

'There is also a major trust deficit between the Pakistani government and the IMF'

Kamal Alam, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said that Pakistani authorities should have read the pattern.

“Saudi Arabia is on a different course now. They've reset their relationship with other countries and refused to give financial handouts to namely: Jordan, Morocco and even Egypt. However, Pakistan, which is far more dysfunctional than all of the others, should have seen it coming,” Alam told MEE.

“Pakistan's been lulled by a false sense of security”, the analyst said, “that with a population of over 220 million and a comprehensive nuclear weapons programme, it’s too big for the world to let it fail. This has bred complacency across successive governments and the country's military leadership of easy loans or bailouts.”

Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to Pakistan’s finance ministry, said the Saudis want Pakistan to sign a deal with the IMF and only then will they see any loans or investment.

“The Pakistani government's delay in implementing essential monetary and fiscal policies, as demanded by the IMF, has hurt the economic situation,” Najeeb said.

“There is also a major trust deficit between the government and the IMF and that's why the Fund is making sure Pakistan implements these policies before it receives any further funding or the important stamp of approval."

Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Pakistan is set to hit 33 percent in the coming months and the country's currency has devalued nearly 65 percent in the last 12 months.

Nearly six months ago, in a bid to stem the outflow of foreign exchange, the Pakistani government stopped almost all imports, leading to a raw materials shortage across manufacturing sectors and a temporary shutdown of several automobile manufacturing plants and textile factories.

Najeeb argues that with high inflation, slow growth and high interest rates around the world, there is less money available for emerging markets like Pakistan, and that without the IMF's “stamp of approval” even friendly Gulf kingdoms will remain shy of investing in the country.

“Friendly countries too want to see reforms in Pakistan, however this time they are going for an investment model as opposed to previously when they would simply deposit a few billion dollars in Pakistan's state bank. This might turn out to be better for the country,” Najeeb told MEE.

What to reform and what follows that?

Kamal Alam told MEE that it was “very obvious” that “the delay in implementing IMF reforms is because the political elite wants to avoid them - deep-set corruption in government is at the heart of it.”

Alam said that a culture of “zero accountability has completely wrecked trust in Pakistani leadership, at home and abroad”.

Pakistan is ranked 140 on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2022, not a favourable ranking, Alam said, if the country wants to attract foreign investment.

Najeeb, who worked in government, said that just attracting foreign investment will not solve Pakistan's problems in the long-term and that the country needs to expand its tax base and improve tax collection.

“Pakistan's agriculture sector contributes 23 percent of total GDP, while tax collection across the sector is very poor,” he said. “Similarly Pakistan's retail and real estate sectors also contribute heavily to the GDP but almost completely avoid taxation.”

The Saudis are also unhappy with the way Islamabad is behaving these days, said Umar Karim.

“The current prime minister has a 77-member ministerial cabinet, the largest in the world; they all receive full perks and privileges. Why would the Saudis help you if you continue to afford yourself such luxuries while they are putting themselves through a cost-cutting drive?” he told MEE.

Karim believes the Saudis are interested in investing in Pakistan's energy sector - both fossil fuels and renewables – and that they are also interested in investing in the country's booming IT sector. But this investment, he said, would only happen after Pakistan implemented economic reforms.

While Pakistan is besotten with a crippling power crisis, Saudi investment in the renewable energy sector could be crucial. A 2020 report from the World Bank suggests Pakistan has immense potential for generating power through solar energy.

“Utilising just 0.071 percent of the country's area for solar power generation would meet Pakistan's current electricity demand,” the report said.

In 2019, however, the Saudi government expressed interest in setting up an oil refinery and in making other investments totalling $10bn in Pakistan. But, Najeeb said, Pakistan would need to “revamp its board of investment” and bring in “specialist human resources and incentives” in order to take advantage of this opening.

The former finance ministry adviser said that a reset in relations with Saudi Arabia would be good for Pakistan and could prove to be a wake-up call.

For Pakistan, the days of easy money are over.
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Neela wrote:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1742969/is-de ... r-pakistan
Is default an option for Pakistan?
While the country’s nuclear arsenal is not under threat
:roll:
“Is Sri Lanka better after default?” the taboo question was voiced aloud by former Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) chairman Shabbar Zaidi, who seemed to think so in an interview with Dawn, a thought recently echoed by former president Asif Ali Zardari.
So they are saying default option may not be bad and citing SL example but conveniently ignoring billions of dollars of funds SL received from India which has helped SL in keeping itself afloat. Who will provide that kind of money to Pakistan if it defaults?
Atmavik
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

SL had to cut army size by 1/2 , pakis I am sure might increase their army size
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

And SL continues to be a highly viable country. It has excellent HDI numbers including good education & health. It is safe for tourists who have returned in numbers; it was safe for tourists even in the worst of the economic crisis when locals lined up at petrol pumps in an orderly manner. It produces high value items for the world to consume - spices, tea, gems etc. It provides transshipment and even has a small IT industry. What it lacks is heavy industry and mineral resources, and is burdened with a lazy, entitled and unruly section of people in the south.

Contrast that with Pakistan.
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

What ejjactly were the paquis thinking with their toes when they pissed off the Sauds?
Like sardar khush hoga, sabahshi dega?
Last edited by vimal on 20 Mar 2023 07:01, edited 1 time in total.
CalvinH
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

SL population 22M, Pak 231M.

Pakis have $22B debt to be paid in next 12 months with $3B in reserves and current account deficit that runs into $2B/month on average.

Anyone coming to rescue must come with deep pockets...
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

vimal wrote:What ejjactly were the paquis thinking with their toes when they pissed off the Sauds?
Like sardar khush hoga, sabahshi dega?
Pakistan is blessed with intellectual capital. For example, it has the highest per-capita concentration of strategic analysts.

These strategic analysts have had a collective delusion that given the size of its army, Pakistan was way more powerful than any of the middle east countries. If you recall, there was an incident where a crane crashed in mecca near the kaaba killing people. Pakistani strategic analysts all expressed outrage and recommended that the running of the Kaaba should be handed over to Pakistan army!

What they forgot to see was who was paying their bills.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

NRao wrote:Saudi Arabia tells Pakistan: No more easy money
...
'Saudi Arabia is on a different course now. They've reset their relationship with other countries...'
..
The Saudis are also unhappy with the way Islamabad is behaving these days, said Umar Karim.
..
The other angle could be that the Saudis are being very careful as they are trying to decouple from the US (by using China). MBS knows this will piss off the US and that the SOP of the US is to first discredit the ruler as the supporter of terror like Gadaffi/Saddam. Hence he wants the giving of funds to be seen as clean & above board like how the west does it. And finally he wants to cut the Pakis down to size, they have been far too much uppity in trying to prop up a counter SA alliance with the Turks and SE Asians.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Neela wrote:..
The industry has also been hit by increased energy charges, which have made units uncompetitive and caused some to close down.
Textiles form 60% of Paki exports. They were running on subsidized power. Now the emperor is naked.
Yes. It is quite serious now.

The only pro they have now is the lakhs of unemployed who will be willing to work for literally peanuts rotis/naans.

Wonder if they will think of migrating to Bangladesh? Highly unlikely that the bangladeshis will take them in. Their sector is also larger under-regulated. That is one way they remain so cheap and competitive.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

There is news in Indian media that KSA has refused to provide the required guarantee to unlock IMF funding.
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Apparently Dar went and told IMF that Saudis and UAE were willing to give 2 billion $ each to tide over balance of payments.

Apparently he did not check with them before he shot off his mouth

So the IMF said "sounds great, get it in writing". Now he wants in writing that Saudis and UAE will give Pakistan 2 billion $ each, which they never agreed to in the first place. It is not that the Saudis agreed to bail out Pakistan, but now are backing off, it is just that they are miffed that Dar went to IMF and said "Guess who my friend is?!!" without checking with the Saudis

Meanwhile, remember that Dar thundered that YYY conspiracy was being hatched the the Joos wanted Pakistan's missiles?

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/105192 ... f-official
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has rejected speculation that the lending institution had attached any conditions to Pakistan’s missile or nuclear program as part of the ninth review of the IMF-supported program, reports Geo News on Sunday.

Stating that there was “absolutely no truth” to any such insinuations, Esther Perez Luiz, the IMF resident representative, clarified that discussions with the Pakistani authorities have exclusively focused on economic policies to address the country’s economic and balance of payments issues.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ Yeah, "discussions with the Pakistani authorities have exclusively focused on economic policies" like ... so tell me sir what is this budget line item for $10B which says XXXX? I need you to please reduce it to zero.
Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

vimal wrote:What ejjactly were the paquis thinking with their toes when they pissed off the Sauds?
Like sardar khush hoga, sabahshi dega?
Thinking? Inbreeding + Islam + Pakistan Studies + Entitled Feudal Mindset = powerful psychadelic that renders them incapable of any strategic thinking or execution. All that they can come up with is a bunch of short-term scheming.

We talk about tactical brilliance of the Pakistani Army but in reality it's just a feature of their wider ecosystem.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Moving towards 300 again..

Yawn - PKR weakens by Rs 2.32 in interbank on IMF uncertainty
The rupee remained under pressure on Monday, with analysts citing the uncertainty surrounding the revival of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and a lack of confidence in the government.

The local currency closed at Rs 284.03 per dollar, according to data shared by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This equates to a depreciation of Rs 2.32 or 0.82 per cent from Friday’s close of Rs 281.71.

..

Several countries had made commitments to support Pakistan during previous IMF reviews, he said, adding that the IMF was now asking for those commitments.

However, Tresmark’s Head of Strategy Komal Mansoor commented today, “There is fresh speculation that Saudi Arabia may not commit any aid or loan to us anymore. Other than China, none of the friendly countries have given reassurances of requisite funding. The message is that it could take one day, one month, or one year.

“The confidence has been so low that not even a dollar has been invested in bonds or treasury bills this month,” she added.
The analyst further said the country’s situation “does not look very promising and unfortunately, no one seems to have a plan B”.
Fikar not Motorma, Moodys, S&P, Fitch ityaadi have a plan 'C' ready for bakistan :mrgreen:
chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
Neela wrote:..


Textiles form 60% of Paki exports. They were running on subsidized power. Now the emperor is naked.
Yes. It is quite serious now.

The only pro they have now is the lakhs of unemployed who will be willing to work for literally peanuts rotis/naans.

Wonder if they will think of migrating to Bangladesh? Highly unlikely that the bangladeshis will take them in. Their sector is also larger under-regulated. That is one way they remain so cheap and competitive.

These TFTA dudes will not fit into the SDRE environment of the beedis, besides they don't speak each other's lingo.

Easiest fit is in India, unfortunately.

they can pass off as afghans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

Anujan wrote:
Meanwhile, remember that Dar thundered that YYY conspiracy was being hatched the the Joos wanted Pakistan's missiles?

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/105192 ... f-official
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has rejected speculation that the lending institution had attached any conditions to Pakistan’s missile or nuclear program as part of the ninth review of the IMF-supported program, reports Geo News on Sunday.

Stating that there was “absolutely no truth” to any such insinuations, Esther Perez Luiz, the IMF resident representative, clarified that discussions with the Pakistani authorities have exclusively focused on economic policies to address the country’s economic and balance of payments issues.
That was some fast downhill skiing.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1743241/dar-s ... of-context

Dar says his Senate speech on Pakistan's nuclear
programme being quoted out of context'

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on Monday that his comments in the Senate on Pakistan’s nuclear programme were being “quoted out of context”, adding that the delay in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme was due to “technical reasons”.

Last week, Dar told the upper house of Parliament that there would be “no compromise” on the country’s nuclear and missile programme.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Manish_P wrote:Moving towards 300 again..

Fikar not Motorma, Moodys, S&P, Fitch ityaadi have a plan 'C' ready for bakistan :mrgreen:
The days of Rs.230 odd to 1 USD seem so far away (well no...thats just 8 weeks ago) . Ah the nostalgia!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Anujan wrote:
That was some fast downhill skiing.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1743241/dar-s ... of-context

Dar says his Senate speech on Pakistan's nuclear
programme being quoted out of context'

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on Monday that his comments in the Senate on Pakistan’s nuclear programme were being “quoted out of context”, adding that the delay in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme was due to “technical reasons”.

Last week, Dar told the upper house of Parliament that there would be “no compromise” on the country’s nuclear and missile programme.
The PPP leader lamented that the Senate had “neither before nor today been taken into confidence on what are the conditionalities of the IMF”. Describing the delay as extraordinary, Senator Rabbani sought to know if the delay was being made because of some sort of pressure on the country’s nuclear programme or its strategic relationship with China or because an imperialist power wanted its presence in the region.
Its almost as if Pakis are yearning for GUBO. They'd do anything right now.
And even the Nooklear and missile references in Dar's speech...are these guys indirectly actually hinting exactly opposite of what they are saying.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by drnayar »

Anujan wrote:
vimal wrote:What ejjactly were the paquis thinking with their toes when they pissed off the Sauds?
Like sardar khush hoga, sabahshi dega?
Pakistan is blessed with intellectual capital. For example, it has the highest per-capita concentration of strategic analysts.
These strategic analysts have had a collective delusion that given the size of its army, Pakistani strategic analysts all expressed outrage and recommended that the running of the Kaaba should be handed over to Pakistan army!
analcysts indeed !!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

And now Tea?
Really?
@NepCorres
https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/16 ... 5181889536
After severe scarcity of Wheat, #Pakistan now has a shortage of Tea. Pakistan Tea Association has requested #Islamabad that the import of Tea may be declared as a Essential importcommodity. Pakistan is too short of supplying the demand.
Image
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by drnayar »

https://defensetalks.com/pakistan-air-f ... d-nations/

PAF video also shows short footage of the Akinci High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drone. Reportedly, Pakistan will start receiving 1st batch of Akinci UCAVs in 1st half of 2023. Akinci is a twin-engine combat drone being developed by the Turkish firm “Baykar”. The latest variant of the Akinci drone can carry payload of up to 2000 kilograms.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has received several batches of AN/TPS-77 Multi-Role Radars from Lockheed Martin
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

The government has decided that there will be no deal with IMF and it’s working on a narrative that the international lender has been turned away due to its tough conditions.
....

The government now seems to think that the country won’t default now since the Chinese aid has arrived, said Mosharraf Zaidi while speaking during Naya Daur TV programme Khabar Say Aagay.
From The Friday Times.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

A_Gupta wrote:
...
The government now seems to think that the country won’t default now since the Chinese aid has arrived, said Mosharraf Zaidi while speaking during Naya Daur TV programme Khabar Say Aagay.
The madarssa maths is strong with this one
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Another brilliant Dar-o-nomics scheme by Showbaz

Use your motor cycle as a fuel tank for your car

Rs 100 per litre fuel subsidy for bike owners
State Minister for Petroleum Musadik Malik Monday said motorcyclists would get a relief of Rs100 per litre of petrol instead of Rs 50.

Addressing a press conference at the PMLN office in Model Town, he said the price of petrol had been reduced for motorcyclists and small cars and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had given only six weeks to implement this decision.

The minister said he will make petrol cheaper for the poor and put the money of the rich in the pockets of the poor. He further said the owners of big vehicles will pay the higher price of petrol. Answering a question, he said out of 22 crore population, 21 crore were poor. :shock:
95% of pakistanis are poor?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

^^^^
Poor only if you think in terms of wealth.
Very Rich if you think in terms of Allah.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Yes Neela ji, 99% pakistanis are rich in matter of their religion

I was wondering whether this (95% being poor) is the first admission of it's kind by a Minister of Pakistan

The rich are around 1%. So that leaves about 4% pakistanis as middle class (compared to around 30%-33% of India)?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

drnayar wrote:https://defensetalks.com/pakistan-air-f ... d-nations/

PAF video also shows short footage of the Akinci High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drone. Reportedly, Pakistan will start receiving 1st batch of Akinci UCAVs in 1st half of 2023. Akinci is a twin-engine combat drone being developed by the Turkish firm “Baykar”. The latest variant of the Akinci drone can carry payload of up to 2000 kilograms.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has received several batches of AN/TPS-77 Multi-Role Radars from Lockheed Martin
Well the Akinci Engines were to be manufactured in Ukraine, I think its old footage, after 1st month of the war Bayraktar has been found as useless by Ukrainians who have told donors they dont want them.

So Pakis showing old footage, Akinci drones are dead since their engine plants are now under rubble.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ You know that (great information btw) but the paki awaam doesn't. They are happy and proud that their fauj has the latest and greatest weaponry purchased from brotherly country. Fauj is happy to pocket most of the money because obviously they aren't going to pay the Turks full price. Turks are happy to offload their garbage and get something for it. When everyone is happy why are you complaining :mrgreen: ?
chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

meanwhile, back at the ranch..........


India guaranteed


Image


Image

IMF approves crucial $3 billion bailout for bankrupt #SriLanka. About $333 million will be disbursed immediately, under four-year extended financing arrangement.

The IMF Executive Board approved Sri Lanka’s program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) that will enable Sri Lanka to access up to $7 billion in funding.

The money comes in installments therefore SL has to follow the agreed-upon program for the next 4 years to receive the whole amount.

while dar and the pakis are left sucking dic...err thumb onlee
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote:...

while dar and the pakis are left sucking dic...err thumb onlee
Chetak ji, the paki anal-cysts based in bartannia are working out the direct proportion maths on how much the IMF owes pakistan.. whether it is 30 billion or 300 billion

What does your math say?

Image
chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:...

while dar and the pakis are left sucking dic...err thumb onlee
Chetak ji, the paki anal-cysts based in bartannia are working out the direct proportion maths on how much the IMF owes pakistan.. whether it is 30 billion or 300 billion

What does your math say?

Image
Manish ji,

the amerikis and the saudis, for very different reasons are laying into the pakis.... and a much delayed lesson is being very harshly administered to the abdools and ayeshas..

first, with the very stingy aid after the floods, which the pakis never expected because everyone including their greedy awam expected to make a killing by inflating their bills and filling their katoras.

even those who "promised" aid have reneged and no amount of paki pleading has moved any of them

they have no hold on anyone anywhere, despite their pav kilo "bum"

and despite the lootyens scoundrels, wagah remains firmly shut despite the many desperate public overtures made to Modi and GOK, how many private pleadings, using all sorts of "track thoo" emissaries that have also failed. So they have now been reduced to abusing Jaishankar in almost international every forum

no maths, no chemistry, and no geography, (strategic location dreams) and no history (of alleged paki "help" during the global WOT after 9/11).

Left in the mix are two hostile neighbors and a slant eyed tallel sweetel flend who is very keen on eating their pet goat, thus depriving them of both sport and pleasure.

Ameriki controlled IMF has well and truly shafted them, the saudis are twisting the knife they have stuck in the paki back, the britshits are looking for aid themselves, and the europeans are scared crapless of both the amerikis and the russkis.

right now, the confused and scared pakis are in a really bad place and in a mess of their own creation. There is anarchy on the streets and niazi is pushing for regime change.

and who is backing niazi, because he is really bad news for India.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan careening towards potential default if IMF aid does not arrive: Bloomberg
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could release funding to Pakistan by June under a bailout package, a Bloomberg report on Tuesday stated, but warned the country could be heading towards default if this does not happen.

“Our base case is that the IMF will deliver the remaining $2.6 billion in aid under the current bailout program by June – helping Pakistan wiggle through the immediate crisis – as the country has fulfilled most of the IMF’s conditions,” wrote Bloomberg economists Ankur Shukla and Abhishek Gupta.

“If the aid does not arrive, though, we think China will help plug the gap to head off a default,” they added.

The economists, however, warned that “Pakistan is careening toward a potential default as soon as June unless it secures aid from the IMF” and noted that the South Asian nation would require another IMF programme to avoid default in the next fiscal year.

“The country will probably need to seek another IMF bailout program or more external aid from allies to avoid default next fiscal year. If the assistance fails to materialize, we think China will step up again,” wrote the economists.
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Banking crisis on cards as textile sector near brink of default
ISLAMABAD: The textile sector has reached the brink of default in the wake of its inability to service the loans it received under TERF (Temporary Economic Refinance Facility) and LTFF (long-term facing facilities) which may also lead to a possible banking crisis, discloses the letter of APTMA to the State Bank of Pakistan written on February 27, 2023. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during the PTI era provided the TERF and LTFF facilities to help industrialists to install more textile units and expansion of units for more growth in exports of the country. However, because of the ongoing LCs crisis, stuck-up consignments of imported cotton at the ports owing to the dollars liquidity crunch and withdrawal of RCET by the government in line with IFM diktat, all the new and expansion units in the sector have become non-functional. This has led to immense pressure on export-reignited units which are unable to generate funds to pay even interest on the loans, leading to massive defaults, curtailment capacity and a possible banking crisis.
chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:Banking crisis on cards as textile sector near brink of default
ISLAMABAD: The textile sector has reached the brink of default in the wake of its inability to service the loans it received under TERF (Temporary Economic Refinance Facility) and LTFF (long-term facing facilities) which may also lead to a possible banking crisis, discloses the letter of APTMA to the State Bank of Pakistan written on February 27, 2023. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during the PTI era provided the TERF and LTFF facilities to help industrialists to install more textile units and expansion of units for more growth in exports of the country. However, because of the ongoing LCs crisis, stuck-up consignments of imported cotton at the ports owing to the dollars liquidity crunch and withdrawal of RCET by the government in line with IFM diktat, all the new and expansion units in the sector have become non-functional. This has led to immense pressure on export-reignited units which are unable to generate funds to pay even interest on the loans, leading to massive defaults, curtailment capacity and a possible banking crisis.
Dilbu ji

are the whites forcing the cheenis to shoulder some responsibility for the mess that their predatory lending practices have created.

It is looking more like a well coordinated strategy in play to give the cheenis a taste of their own medicine

Either way, the whites don't have much to lose and they have also firmly declined to loosen their purse strings
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Chetak ji, there is definitely some tu-tu-main-main happening between unkil and fliend when it comes to who is responsible for cleaning munna's potty. The articles appearing in Bloomberg and FTs stating unnamed sources that China is expected to step in if IMF fails to provide baksheesh to TSP by June is no accident. How will the fliend fight back is the question.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Lisa »

I am sorry but I am naïve. What the issue with default?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vadivel »

Lisa wrote:I am sorry but I am naïve. What the issue with default?

H&DEE I suppose, also perennially not able to access bond markets and called bhikaris especially by sdre eyndians.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RajaRudra »

Dawn Comment section is still in repair, for months now. There is some serious censorship going along with pemras official dictums. We can assume the pakis economic issue is atleaset pauses (not solved) temporarily if the dawn comment section allowed to open. -More like thermometer to gauge now :D
chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Dilbu wrote:Chetak ji, there is definitely some tu-tu-main-main happening between unkil and fliend when it comes to who is responsible for cleaning munna's potty. The articles appearing in Bloomberg and FTs stating unnamed sources that China is expected to step in if IMF fails to provide baksheesh to TSP by June is no accident. How will the fliend fight back is the question.
Dilbu ji,

fliend is in a very tight spot. His own domestic situation is in turmoil and the international geopolitical climate is not to his liking.

billion$ sunk into the CPEC is at stake, as is the gwadar port itself. The cheeni are now into very large scale plundering of the fishing resources off the paki coast using hundreds of trawlers thus angering and shutting out the paki fishermen. Many riots have already broken out in the gwadar area against the cheenis.

ImageHuge protests at gwadar

this cheeni CPEC project is a huge drain on resources because even if it functions, it will need about 5MW of power all through the year, for every so many Kms of pipe, just to heat the pipelines to keep the oil at a temp where it can be pumped manageably.

the cheeni had planned to shift their coal fired and old clunker power stations from china and make a huge killing on their sale to the pakis.

these are designed to use cheeni coal with a specific range of calorific values. The pakis are not willing to pay to reconvert these clunkers to use paki coal of which there is plenty and the transportation cost of local coal is also manageable and all proceeds go into the jernails pockets onlee. The big hitch is the conversion costs, or import coal from cheen at huge cost to the pakis

Even in India, imported aussie coal (usually) is generally mixed with lower calorific value Indian coal to bring up the total calorific value to meet the design specs by tinkering with the coal mixing ratio. That is also why adani owns a gigantic coal mine in AUS. That is why soros backed "environmental" groups have targeted the adani project in AUS, to starve India of it's power generation capacity and it's undoubted effect on Indian industrial production et al.

If the cheeni helps out the pakis they have to do the same in their projects in africa. The cheeni were forced to help out in SL because Modi purposely went in to help SL in a very big way just to shaft the cheenis and also the dravidians in TN whose eelam mission in SL is strongly supported and funded by the padres.

There are wheels within wheels playing out, with different actors dominating in different geographies. adani is a big player in SL too.

The cheenis need to break the India russia, as well as, the India US jodi. The US/UK/EU need to break and remold India in their own design of a neo colony and western weapon dependent protectorate. Only then can they safely go after the russkis.

pappu has let the cat out of the bag many times in the past and again with his latest foolishness at cambridge.

the cheenis, the amerikis, and the padres are all dealing with pappu and that seems to have given his huge entitled ego a massive boost like after downing bucket full of red bull
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