Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Poorer nation
AWAY from the suffocation building on the political front, figures regarding the state of the economy, approved by the National Accounts Committee and released on Thursday by the government, have ignited fresh controversy.

Quite a few among the small clique of commentators who keep a keen eye on Pakistan’s economic affairs have been expressing the apprehension that the released statistics — which show a massive deceleration in GDP growth this year — may have been manipulated.

They are pointing to what they see as glaring anomalies in the various data points used to calculate national GDP, arguing that the already dismal official calculations may, in fact, be covering up an even more devastating reality.
According to the released data, per capita income fell to $1,568 this fiscal year, after growing from $1,677 in 2021 to $1,766 last year. This decline of a little more than 11pc translates to the fact that the country actually reversed its human development progress under the stewardship of the PML-N’s much-vaunted finance team.

In even simpler terms: the quality of life for every Pakistani citizen has experienced a sudden decline, thanks in large part to the government. While the poor faced the brunt of this devastation, the middle-income classes and the elite too could not avoid the fallout of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar’s reckless policies.

This much is borne out by anecdotal evidence: talk to farmers, rickshaw drivers, young professionals or C-suite executives from almost any industry today, and one finds only discontentment.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan misses investment target
Pakistan’s investment ratio has hit a new low of 13.5% of the economy’s size in the outgoing fiscal year, indicating a decline in investor interest due to concerns about sovereign default and uncertain taxation policies. These latest figures follow Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressing his disappointment with businessmen’s growing interest in housing societies rather than investing in the productive sector of the economy.

Provisional estimates reveal that investments and savings as a percentage of Pakistan’s economy have remained below the official targets for the past fiscal year. Such low savings and investment ratios can eventually lead to an external sector crisis when the country’s growth exceeds 5%. Despite the coalition government setting a target of 14.7% investment to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, it has fallen to 13.5% based on initial estimates from the latest national accounts.
The details reveal a decline in fixed investment as a percentage of GDP from 14% to just 11% in the past fiscal year, falling short of the target of 13%. Private investment also saw a major drop, decreasing from 10.5% to 8.8% of GDP, below the government’s target of 9.7%. Ehsan Malik, CEO of the Pakistan Business Council, representing the country’s 100 largest manufacturers, expressed concerns about a significant default risk, stating that the government should not expect new investments. Public sector investment as a percentage of GDP decreased from 3.5% to 3.1%, below the target of 3.3%.

Restrictions on outbound repatriation of profits due to solvency concerns have discouraged foreign investors, and it may take years to restore their confidence. The savings-to-GDP ratio improved from 11% to 12.4%, but it fell slightly short of the official target. The improvement was due to the government’s efforts to control imports and reduce the current account deficit. As a result, the projected current account deficit for the outgoing fiscal year is expected to be 1.1% of GDP or $3.8 billion, far better than the official target. However, questions remain about its sustainability once import controls are lifted.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by gakakkad »

Vips wrote:
gakakkad wrote: I don't believe there economy is more than 180-200 billion.
Per the latest digital census findings Porki population has crossed 25 Crores. So the per capita GDP is competing with the sub-sahara region :lol:
I am thinking there real Per capita income is < 1000 dollars...

couple of datapoints : there electricity transmission capacity is around 22 GW. interestingly total capacity is 43 k which is below there capacity to distribute.

that was indias capacity in 1970s. At per capita level there consumption is what indias would have been in late 90s. based on that itself no way in hell there PCI is more than 800
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sanjaykumar »

The people who make the rules live well. The people who live by the rules live worse than in sub-Saharan Africa.

But they have Islam.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by NRao »

A serious discussion. 3 days old.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan agrees to share budget details with IMF to unlock stalled programme
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has revealed that the coalition government has agreed to share details of its upcoming budget details with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to unlock the stalled funds.

"They have asked us for some more details like the details of (the) budget, we will give that to them," Dar said while speaking on Geo News programme Jirga on Sunday.

He reiterated that the country has fulfilled all conditions laid forth by the Washington-based lender to revive the stalled $6.5 billion programme and urged the global lender to release the funds before the upcoming federal budget due next month.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by williams »

Dilbu wrote:Pakistan agrees to share budget details with IMF to unlock stalled programme
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has revealed that the coalition government has agreed to share details of its upcoming budget details with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to unlock the stalled funds.

"They have asked us for some more details like the details of (the) budget, we will give that to them," Dar said while speaking on Geo News programme Jirga on Sunday.

He reiterated that the country has fulfilled all conditions laid forth by the Washington-based lender to revive the stalled $6.5 billion programme and urged the global lender to release the funds before the upcoming federal budget due next month.
Will that include the defense budget?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

williams wrote:...

Will that include the defense budget?
IIRC pak fauj salaries and pensions are hidden away under the civilian budget.

The IMF had at a very early stage asked for those items to be removed and included in the defence budget (which would then have to be slashed).

Their previous FM muft Ismail had revealed the pressure being put before he was himself relieved of the post
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

A lot of spending for fauji pensions and such is done by fauji foundations. Who make cement, corn flakes etc. Don't have to pay taxes or electricity bill. A lot of fauji pensions are in the form of plots which are simply acquired by the fauji from the civilian government. A lot of profits are generated by faujis building DHA on the plots and selling them at a markup to normal Abduls. The Military run industry alone is estimated to be 10% of overall economy. Forget the land shenanigans.

How would you get an accurate number on "how much money is spent on defence"
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

Fun times:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ktradese ... er_desktop

"KTrade Strategy Report: We are Bullish on Pakistan"
While the market has started to fear and price in sovereign default, we think that Pakistan will not default. We are Bullish on Pakistan. We think that it is imperative for our clients to understand global geopolitical trends in order to navigate the financial markets. As the example of Russia and China shows, the current times are all about geopolitics. According to our framework, Pakistan is a key "pivotal state" as described by Paul Kennedy. This geographic importance is paramount in current times of a multipolar world. We go back to a framework developed by Sir Halford Mackinder to argue that China will need a land and rail network to connect with Saudi Arabia, to protect its trade routes to Africa and Europe (via Turkey). Pakistan is a swing state and has become strategically very important. "
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Anujan wrote:A lot of fauji pensions are in the form of plots which are simply acquired by the fauji from the civilian government... Forget the land shenanigans.
China and Pak are similar in one fundamental way. Their governments both have ownership of plenty of excellent land. This is used very strategically - in China it is used to prop up local municipalities, counties and even provinces through "land lease" while in Pak it is used as a means to fund their army.

What is most similar is that lands in both these countries were acquired by expropriating under extreme duress from their previous owners. Which is why the best lands are aplenty and in government control.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mollick.R »

Pakistan designated ‘very high concern’ area in food insecurity
Amin Ahmed Published May 30, 2023

ISLAMABAD: Acute food insecurity in Pakistan is likely to further exacerbate in coming months if the economic and political crisis further worsens, compounding the effects of the 2022 floods, warns a new United Nations report published on Monday.

The report titled, Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, jointly published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Progra­mme (WFP) covers the June to November 2023 period.

It notes that amid the current global economic slowdown, mounting public debt has exacerbated the ongoing financial crisis in Pakistan. It points out that authorities will have to repay $77.5 billion external debt between April 2023 and June 2026, a substantial amount considering the country’s GDP of $350bn in 2021.

Growing political instability and lagging reforms prevent the release of a crucial new credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and additional support from bilateral partners, the report says.

The political crisis and civil unrest are likely to worsen ahead of general elections scheduled for October 2023, amid growing insecurity in the northwest of the country. A shortage of foreign reserves and a depreciating currency are diminishing the country’s ability to import essential food items and energy supplies and increasing food items’ prices besides causing nat­ionwide energy cuts, the report says.

The situation has been compounded by effects of last year’s floods which caused damages and economic losses of Rs30bn to the agriculture sector.

According to the report, over 8.5 million people were likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2022.

The food insecurity and malnutrition situation is likely to worsen in the outlook period, as economic and political crises are reducing households’ purchasing power and ability to buy food and other essential goods, it notes.

The likely deterioration to the food security situation in the projection period is due to the devastating impact of floods, which caused livestock losses and adversely affected food production and availability of food and livelihood opportunities.

It also notes that Afghanistan’s coal and food export revenues could drop if the economic and political crisis in Pakistan — Kabul’s main trading partner — and the security situation in border areas continues to deteriorate.

The report has called for building the capacity of national and provincial disaster management authorities to include forecast-based financing and risk insurance as part of disaster management and sectoral contingency plans.

Among the actions recommended by the report are strengthening the shock-responsive nature of existing social protection mechanisms (such as the Benazir Income Support Prog­ra­mme) to ensure effective anticipatory action and humanitarian res­p­onse through social protection systems.

The two UN agencies further warn that acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 81 hunger spots — comprising a total of 22 countries during the outlook period from June to November 2023.

Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen remain at the highest concern level. Haiti, the Sahel (Burkina Faso and Mali) and the Sudan have been elevated to the highest concern levels. This is due to severe movement restrictions of people and goods in Haiti, as well as in Burkina Faso and Mali, and the recent eruption of conflict in the Sudan.

All the hotspots at the highest level have populations facing or projected to face starvation or are at risk of deterioration towards catastrophic conditions, given they have already critical food insecurity and are facing severe aggravating factors. These countries require the most urgent attention.

Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Congo and Syria are hotspots with very high concern, and the warning is also extended to Myanmar.

Image


Riyasat -E-Pudina is == Sub-Saharan Failed war torn states :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mollick.R »

Pakistan: Sugar, flour prices soar once again in Balochistan
ANI Last Updated: May 30, 2023, 06:35 AM IST

The prices of sugar and flour are skyrocketing once again in various districts of Balochistan including in the provincial capital Quetta, Pakistan vernacular media reported.

Many districts of poverty-struck Balochistan are witnessing a rise in the prices of sugar and flour once against. In various districts including the provincial capital Quetta, sugar is being sold from PKR 130 to PKR 200 per kilo while flour is being sold from PKR 2,600 to PKR 4,000 for 20 kg. The price of sugar is the highest in Dalbandin at PKR 200 per kg, while the highest price of flour is recorded at PKR 4000 per 20 kg in Sahabatpur, reported Roznama Intekhab.

Its1 971 East Pakistan story redux, TFTA Punjabis will always have first right on resources be it flour, petrol, gas, vaccine , water or share of tax money.

Chairman of the Flour Mills Association Chaudhry Aamir in a press conference said that the flour mills will be forced to go on strike from 7 pm on Thursday because the food department has cheated them.

He said that when the mills had gone on strike due to the ban on the arrival of wheat from inside Sindh to Karachi, at that time the provincial Food Minister had promised five million bags of wheat. Those were enough for the mills of Karachi for two months. On the assurance, flour mills ended the strike, according to ARY News.


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Read Full Story fro Here// ET Link
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 606998.cms
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

What happens if Pakistan defaults on debt?
We hope that the government will be able to steer the economy out of the crisis and avoid default. However, in the case of a sovereign default, people will lack sufficient money to purchase consumable goods, and the government and private importers will require hard cash to import everything from pulses to medicines and from crude oil to cooking oil.

The government’s revenues will be consumed by interest payments and high costs, while hyperinflation, following a sovereign default, will erode the purchasing power of the common man’s salary.

Pakistan is not unique in this regard, despite its leaders proudly claiming that it has never defaulted except on one occasion.

Sri Lanka also defaulted in April last year for the first time in its history amid extreme political and economic crises. Similar factors are currently present in Pakistan and are gradually pushing it toward a default situation.
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are dangerously low, standing at just $4.1 billion, which is equivalent to the debt repayments due in June alone.
If the government fails to make adequate arrangements to repay the $25 billion debt in the next fiscal year, with or without the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the people of Pakistan will experience a way of life they have never known.

Living standards for 250 million people will collapse. Shortages of food, fuel, and medicines, already scarce due to import restrictions imposed by the Sharif administration to delay default, will worsen. The value of the rupee will continue to shrink, leading to hyperinflation caused by the exchange rate movement. The government may be forced to impose cuts on imports, which could harm companies relying on imported raw materials.

Sovereign default inflicts significant economic instability, erodes investor confidence, and hinders access to international financial markets, as stated by Arif Habib Research last week. The lack of breakthrough with the IMF, whose approval often determines support from friendly countries, increases the likelihood of sovereign default.
In the event of a default, the main casualty will be the rupee, which has already fallen to as low as Rs313 to a dollar in the open market.

The price of the rupee against the US dollar will become unpredictable, as many individuals scramble to acquire remaining foreign currency.

Cash will be required for all purchases from abroad, and no bank will open credit accounts.

Before the default, the Sri Lankan rupee was around 200 to a dollar. It fell to 322 ahead of the formal default announcement on April 12 and subsequently sank to 370 to a dollar. However, it has gradually recovered to 298 to a dollar after receiving a bailout from the IMF in March this year.

Pakistan will be severely affected in such a scenario, as its economy heavily relies on imports. The devaluation of the currency will trigger hyperinflation. The exchange-rate shock will cause the cost of everything, from imported fuel to pulses and medicines, to multiply.
If Pakistan defaults on its debt, it will be very difficult to import essential goods such as petroleum, machinery, and medicinal products. According to World Bank estimates, 80% of Pakistan’s imports consist of raw materials, intermediary goods, and essential items.

Imagine the impact on daily life when a person wants to import a good but the bank demands advance payment. Cash will become a scarce commodity.

Exports will also suffer due to the non-availability of raw materials, energy shortages, and the cancellation or shift of export orders to more stable competitors, according to Arif Habib research.
Banks and global markets will close doors to Pakistan

One of the reasons for the delay in reaching a staff level agreement with the IMF is the government’s inability to secure enough foreign loans to satisfy the lender. In the event of default, foreign commercial banks will either refuse to lend or demand an interest rate that would be difficult for any government to accept.

Multilateral banks like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may also withhold budget support loans to Pakistan until it agrees to debt restructuring with the lenders.

Sovereign default will also impact domestic banks, which have already invested more than 60% of their balance sheets in government debt. They will be exposed to losses, including the face value of their loans to the government.
Economy will contract

Even before default, there are reports of information sources and discrepancies in the data indicating that Pakistan’s economy actually contracted by at least 0.5% compared to the National Accounts Committee-approved growth rate of 0.3%.

In the event of default, the contraction will be more severe, affecting every sector of the economy and leading to unemployment and increased poverty. This could further fuel political instability and potentially result in social unrest.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

Events on the ground point are reminder of the state of the economy.

@OsintTV
https://twitter.com/OsintTV/status/1663445314659811335
Breaking News
Reportedly Malaysia seized #Pakistan Airlines-PIA aircraft at Kuala Lumpur airport over lease dispute
Boeing 777 aircraft which had been acquired by PIA on lease from #Malaysia was seized for the 2nd time due to unpaid dues of $4 million
Developing story
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Mollick.R wrote:Pakistan: Sugar, flour prices soar once again in Balochistan

The prices of sugar and flour are skyrocketing once again in various districts of Balochistan including in the provincial capital Quetta, Pakistan vernacular media reported...
This is 5th generation warfare strategy onlee. As reported in the Terroristan thread, pakistan is a frontline state of diabetes.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

Dilbu wrote:
According to the released data, per capita income fell to $1,568 this fiscal year, after growing from $1,677 in 2021 to $1,766 last year. This decline of a little more than 11pc translates to the fact that the country actually reversed its human development progress under the stewardship of the PML-N’s much-vaunted finance team.
Compared to Pakistan's per capita income of US$ 1568, Bangladesh is $ 2570. J&K is approx. $ 2000.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

I think the report is before the national census was completed.

So the actual per capita income will be even less.

No matter, all the bakis need to do is to declare the ahmediyyas, the shias, the pok folk as 'fluid' and remove them from the base count.

That should help the number go up a bit. H&D saved.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by gakakkad »

^ also pretty sure there GDP is overestimated by atleast 50% and PKR is still over-valued.

one more comparator data point

GSDP of UP which has a population comparable to Pakee is 350 billion US-Dollar. even though it is the second poorest state in india per capita UP now has 24x7 electricity even in remote villages .

Total installed capacity in UP in 30 GW all of which is transmissible compared to 22 gw in pakistan
UP has IT and industrial powerhouse -Noida and ghaziabad.. Pakitans IT cannot be measured in dollar..

UP produces 50 million MT of foodgrain (20% of indias agriculture output) and Wheat, rice, pulses, oilseeds, and sugarcane..AND TONS OF other cash crop.. western up farmers are actually quite prosperous. we all know how things in pakee are like.

Pakistan produced 26 million MT of food grain by contrast

UP receives international and national tourism at multiple sites.. pretty sure pakee tourism is mainly from jihadist coming there for training and that is not translatable to $$/

UP has 4-5 cities with metro-rail system and advanced urban mass transit. pakee only has transit to jannat for 72 purposes. which while priceless does not translate to GDP.

using the above datapoints it's hard to believe that Pakee GDP is >50% of that of UP..

Only thing un-accounted for is income from drug trade.. Pretty sure narcotrafficking makes 10-30 billion for them annually. but a lot of the money would be stashed in international banks and likely not used in TSP..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

gakakkad wrote:^ also pretty sure there GDP is overestimated by atleast 50% and PKR is still over-valued.

...

Only thing un-accounted for is income from drug trade.. Pretty sure narcotrafficking makes 10-30 billion for them annually. but a lot of the money would be stashed in international banks and likely not used in TSP..
+1

Also the Jernails are scared about the freezing of their overseas accounts.. so a good portion of the cash is used to buy pizza franchises etc and a good portion is used to buy real estate in Dubai, Gulf with expat pakis and even local sheiks as the front.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Article is behind paywall but headline gives an idea where things are heading.
IMF Asks Pakistan to Fix Currency Market Before Bailout Resumes
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Lisa »

Dilbu wrote:Article is behind paywall but headline gives an idea where things are heading.
IMF Asks Pakistan to Fix Currency Market Before Bailout Resumes
https://archive.ph/B5Dho
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Tanaji »

Essentially Pakistani budget is being authored by IMF. It is as Pakistani as the JF-17 Thunder.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by gakakkad »

end of the decade Indian economy will be 50x our western neighbor . sometime next decade there may be a point it ll be 72x. assuming they survive that long...
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Rupee to fall as IMF urges market rate
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again reminded the government to fulfil three conditions in order to resume its $6.5 billion loan programme. These conditions include reinstating the market-determined exchange rate. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif engaged in discussions with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to revive the stalled bailout package before it expires on June 30, 2023.

The IMF’s reminder regarding this condition suggests that the government has recently reinforced its control over the exchange rate. {This is how PKR has managed to stay lower than Kabul rate so far. Through manipulation.}
A depreciation of 5-10% could potentially push the rupee to a new record low within the range of Rs300-310/$. On May 11, 2023, the exchange rate reached a new all-time low of Rs299/$ in the interbank market due to increased political uncertainty following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and subsequent law and order issues.

In contrast to the consolidation in the exchange rate around Rs285/$ in the interbank market, the open market has witnessed a continuous downward trend in recent days, indicating that the government has regained control over the rupee in the interbank market.

According to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), the rupee experienced a fresh drop of 0.32% or Rs1, reaching a new all-time low of Rs312 against the US dollar in the open market on Tuesday. As a result, the gap in the exchange rate between the interbank and open market has widened to nearly a record Rs27.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Economic outlook report shows 13% drop in remittances
ISLAMABAD: The Economic Outlook report showed that the remittances dropped by thirteen percent drop to $22.7 billion in April-July 2022-23, ARY News reported.

The Finance Ministry issued the economic outlook report for April, which shows a drop in remittances, industrialization and imports of the country.

According to the report, Pakistan’s imports dropped by 23% to $45.2 billion, and the country’s exports dropped by 13.6% to $23.2 billion. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has decreased by 23.2 percent to $1.1 billion.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

50% Ongoing Construction Projects Halted Due to Hike in Steel Prices
The Association of Builders and Developers of Pakistan (ABAD) has claimed that 50 percent of ongoing construction projects have come to a halt due to a hike in steel bar prices by a cartel of large-scale steel manufacturers. The ABAD in its budget proposals for 2023-24 informed the Finance minister on Monday that the cartel of large-scale steel manufacturers has jacked up steel bar prices due to the imposition of regulatory duty. They asked Federal Minister for Finance Ishaq Dar for the removal of the existing 30 percent regulatory duty on the import of steel bars for the revival of the construction industry.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Dilbu wrote:Rupee to fall as IMF urges market rate
..

In contrast to the consolidation in the exchange rate around Rs 285/$ in the interbank market, the open market has witnessed a continuous downward trend in recent days, indicating that the government has regained control over the rupee in the interbank market.

According to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), the rupee experienced a fresh drop of 0.32% or Rs1, reaching a new all-time low of Rs312 against the US dollar in the open market on Tuesday. As a result, the gap in the exchange rate between the interbank and open market has widened to nearly a record Rs27.
The fixers have kept the interbank rate at Rs 285 for H&D. If an abdul walks into a bank and hands over PKR 28500 and asks for 100 Dallars the bank simply turns him down saying there are some or the other restrictions and they can give to certain entities only. The abdul then simply crosses the street to the local forex supplier and buys the dallars at the market rate :mrgreen:

this is what has been going on for months... even when for a few days or so when there was no difference between the official and the market rates.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

IMF should just pay the money and stop talking. TSP is an atami takat.
Pakistan slams IMF's 'intervention' in internal matters
ISLAMABAD: State Minister for Finance and Revenue Aisha Ghaus Pasha Wednesday slammed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for "intervening" in Pakistan's internal matters.

"Pakistan’s conduct is in line with the law,” the state minister said, terming IMF Mission Chief for Pakistan Nathan Porter’s statement — regarding the political situation in Pakistan — “extraordinary”.

While the IMF does not comment on domestic politics, Porter had said that the Fund hopes "a peaceful way forward is found in line with the Constitution and the rule of law.”

Hoping that both sides will reach a staff-level agreement before the announcement of the federal budget — expected to be unveiled on June 9 — for the fiscal year 2023-24, the state minister said that the delay is neither good for Pakistan nor the Fund. :D {Mostly for the fund. IMF is going to starve in a few weeks if muft ka paisa is not paid to TSP}
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Varuna »

^ it's a warning. That's all they know to do, like little Bhutto did. TSP will declare Jeehard on IMF, and send mujjies to IMF headquarters
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

IMF needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs IMF.

Imagine what will happen to nuclear flashpoint in South Asia (where 2 billion people live under $2 a day and India and Pakistan which have fought 4 wars over cashmere) if Pakistan defaults.

IMF will regret it and it will be very difficult for IMF.

Pakistan should give a stern final warning to IMF before imploding.
Y I Patel
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Y I Patel »

Mudi sud rejine
vera_k
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vera_k »

Posting here since there is no China Economic Stress Watch thread (yet). China has started calling in loans previously extended due to slow to negative growth at home.

China calls in loans to Pakistan
As Parks dug into the details of the loans, he found something alarming: Clauses mandating that borrowing countries deposit U.S. dollars or other foreign currency in secret escrow accounts that Beijing could raid if those countries stopped paying interest on their loans.
China won’t budge in taking losses, and the IMF won’t offer low-interest loans if the money is just going to pay interest on Chinese debt.
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

^^^^
Port Qasim Electric Power Company Ltd (PQEPC), which runs a $1.9 billion power plant of 1,320 megawatts on imported coal, has served a formal notice of payment default on the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA).

The total verified due amount that the state-backed, sole electricity purchaser owes the independent power producer (IPP) amounted to Rs77.3bn or $263.5 million as of May 15, according to PQEPC CEO Guo Guangling

https://www.dawn.com/news/1757015/chine ... lt-on-cppa
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Ishaq Dar announces 8-rupee cut in petrol price

No hopes of any Pakistan deal for IMF.
A_Gupta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

https://propakistani.pk/proproperty/gro ... ow-levels/
> ISLAMABAD: The groundwater level in Islamabad is decreasing at an alarming rate of 5 to 8 feet per year, due to excessive pumping by departments and residents to meet water requirements, according to official statistics prepared by the civic agency.

> The federal capital has experienced a five-fold reduction in groundwater over the last five years, with a decrease of six feet in 2013, ten feet in 2014, and 16, 23, and 30 feet from 2015 to 2017.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

^ 30 feet in one single year :cry:

Seems borderline unbelievable...
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Tallel fliend comes to harvest.. will this be rolled over, for more interest & penalty, as well.

Ishaq Dar should talk sternly to IMF and tell them that delaying aid only means that they will have to give even more aid...

Yawn - Chinese IPP serves notice of payment default on CPPA
Port Qasim Electric Power Company Ltd (PQEPC), which runs a $1.9 billion power plant of 1,320 megawatts on imported coal, has served a formal notice of payment default on the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA).

The total verified due amount that the state-backed, sole electricity purchaser owes the independent power producer (IPP) amounted to Rs77.3bn or $263.5 million as of May 15, according to PQEPC CEO Guo Guangling.

Owned by China’s Sinohydro Resources Ltd and Qatar’s Al Mirqab Capital Ltd, the IPP was part of the early-harvest phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Are you all ready for the biggest reveal of 2023? Read on!

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2419700/pa ... w-imf-deal
Sources told The Express Tribune that the prime minister had revealed Pakistan’s intentions to sign a follow-up bailout package during his telephonic conversation with the IMF managing director on the weekend.
Sources also said that IMF chief MD was stunned into silence for two mins hearing the revelation. She never saw it coming. I don't think IMF will ever get a better deal from Pakistan. IMF should sign the bailout and transfer the money already.
“We have clearly told the IMF managing director (Kristalina Georgieva) that the government wants to complete the programme. The IMF chief has also conveyed that she wants to see progress,” she added.
8)
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

More "let them eat cake" behaviour from the Pak authorities:
So, if you are rich/powerful enough to have an international credit card issued in Paxtan, you can spend $$ abroad at the official rate of Rs 285 per, but if you are not from the privileged class you need to purchase dollars from the "kerb" at Rs 315 per. Great going State Bank of Paxtan!!! The elite kids going to uni will enjoy the benefits of papa's cards, ordinary folks can be damned.
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