Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[Parasu]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1735103/imf-g ... pm-shehbaz

"IMF giving tough time to finance minister, team during talks: PM Shehbaz"

“Our economic challenge at this moment is unimaginable. The conditions we have to fulfil [to complete the IMF review] are beyond imagination,” he said without elaborating.

IMF doing danda instead of the usual thing.

[RCase]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

[Dilbu]

As long as the generals are not covered by this all eez well.
IMF DEMANDS DECLARATION OF PAKISTAN’S PUBLIC SERVANTS’ ASSETS

According to the sources at the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), the IMF insisting public declaration of the government servants’ assets. The international lender has also demanded details of the overseas assets of the bureaucracy, sources said.

The IMF has also demanded establishment of an authority to make public the government officers’ assets, according to sources.

The lender demanded to make movable and immovable assets of bureaucrats in overseas to ensure transparence and accountability, according to sources. It has demanded to set up an Electronic Assets Declaration System for transparency.

[Dilbu]

Blackouts and soaring prices: Pakistan’s economy is on the brink

Islamabad/LondonCNN
—
Muhammad Radaqat, a 27-year-old greengrocer, is worried. He doesn’t know how much an onion will cost next week, let alone how he’ll be able to afford the fuel he needs to heat his home and keep his family warm.

“All we’re being told by the government is that things are going to get worse,” Radaqat told CNN.

His anxiety reflects the mood of a nation racing to ward off an economic meltdown. Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports.

People are suffering in the meantime. Farmers who lost cotton, date, sugar and rice crops to flooding still need help. The World Bank predicted in October that as many as nine million Pakistanis could be pushed into poverty without “decisive relief and recovery efforts to help the poor.”

High inflation is only boosting pain for households struggling to make ends meet. Food prices in January rose 43% year over year, according to data released this week.

Attention focused recently on a man in the southern province of Sindh who lost his life in a scramble to obtain a bag of subsidized flour handed out by local authorities. He was crushed to death by the crowd alongside him.

[Dilbu]

Debt servicing may surge to whopping Rs5.2tr

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday asked Pakistan to increase the general sales tax rate to a minimum of 18% to raise more taxes, as the country’s debt servicing cost was projected to increase to alarmingly Rs5.2 trillion in the current fiscal year.

The global lender placed the demand to increase the standard GST rate the day the government shared its revised macroeconomic projections, which showed inflation accelerating to 29% and economic growth rate slowing down to 1.5%.

The higher inflation and lower economic growth would cause higher unemployment and poverty in the country.

A day earlier, the government shared the details of the $30 billion external financing requirements and the projected inflows. But the IMF did not appear confident about the country’s ability to raise roughly $8 billion from capital markets and foreign commercial banks in these challenging times, sources told The Express Tribune.

The IMF was told that the total cost of the debt servicing could peak to a whopping Rs5.2 trillion in the current fiscal year 2022-23, the sources said. The government had budgeted Rs3.950 trillion but the revised projections were Rs1.2 trillion or 31% higher than the budget estimates.

The Rs5.2 trillion would be equal to 54% of the budget announced in June last year and massive spending projections could lead to a demand by the IMF for more taxes or cut in other expenses to create some fiscal space, the sources said.

The government had already spent Rs2.57 trillion on debt servicing during July-December period of the current fiscal year. The central bank last month increased the interest rates to 17%, which might not help contain inflation but will surely further bleed the budget.

[Manish_P]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

FM Ishaq Dar will be like - Marwaogay kya mujhe??

PS: there is a superb animated gif image on home page of Dawn (In staring contest with IMF, Dar blinks first) which perfectly shows the darr of Dar

Actually its a perfect representative image for memes of all bakis now - be it petrol price rise, or blackout or bum blast

Not putting it here as it might be a bit too striking for some of our more sensitive members
(don't know how to reduce it's size)

[Dilbu]

Looks like investment from Saudi Arabia is also on hold.
Saudi Arabia links oil refinery’s setup with political consensus

ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia has reportedly linked establishment of billions of dollars oil refinery in Pakistan with political consensus, cabinet approval and stringent conditions proposed by M/s Aramco, well informed sources in Petroleum Division told Business Recorder.

In a follow up to the visit of Minister of State (MoS) for Petroleum, Musadik Malik to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Embassy is working closely with the relevant Saudi authorities to build on the understandings reached during the visit.

In this regard, Pakistan ambassador has suggested the following roadmap: on the oil refinery project, as undertaken by the MoS, GoP should pursue a favourable decision of the Cabinet in support of the terms and conditions proposed by Aramco. Once decision is made, Pakistan should convey it to the Saudi authorities in writing.

[chetak]

Looks like investment from Saudi Arabia is also on hold.
Saudi Arabia links oil refinery’s setup with political consensus

ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia has reportedly linked establishment of billions of dollars oil refinery in Pakistan with political consensus, cabinet approval and stringent conditions proposed by M/s Aramco, well informed sources in Petroleum Division told Business Recorder.

In a follow up to the visit of Minister of State (MoS) for Petroleum, Musadik Malik to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Embassy is working closely with the relevant Saudi authorities to build on the understandings reached during the visit.

In this regard, Pakistan ambassador has suggested the following roadmap: on the oil refinery project, as undertaken by the MoS, GoP should pursue a favourable decision of the Cabinet in support of the terms and conditions proposed by Aramco. Once decision is made, Pakistan should convey it to the Saudi authorities in writing.

Aramco desperately wants a refinery in this geography.

They went all out for acquiring the essar refinery but the GOI cleverly blocked that. In 2017, Essar Oil was acquired by Rosneft and an investment consortium led by Trafigura & UCP Investment Group.

so Aramco is trying to get a refinery in pukestan

[Atmavik]

PKR up to 276

[yensoy]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

FM Ishaq Dar will be like - Marwaogay kya mujhe??

This is what I believe IMF is actually doing

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” ~ Arthur Conan Doyle, The Case-Book of Sherlock Holmes

So they will push and push till it becomes absolutely impossible for the government to eliminate anything else at which point they will be forced to cut the military.

Unfortunately, it is also the case that if the economy magically recovers, the military budget will be more than restored; unlike say in SL's case where they have decided to permanently reduce the military size.

[RoyG]

FM Ishaq Dar will be like - Marwaogay kya mujhe??

This is what I believe IMF is actually doing

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” ~ Arthur Conan Doyle, The Case-Book of Sherlock Holmes

So they will push and push till it becomes absolutely impossible for the government to eliminate anything else at which point they will be forced to cut the military.

Unfortunately, it is also the case that if the economy magically recovers, the military budget will be more than restored; unlike say in SL's case where they have decided to permanently reduce the military size.

There is something IMF vultures cannot fix.

The quality of education has hit rock bottom and the brain drain is severe.

There is no more talent in the country which has hollowed everything out.

They are too late on creating an ecosystem to sustain industrialization, innovation, and high end manufacturing.

Even if they were to miraculously get their act together, the regen time for quality talent is decades.

The game is over.

[CalvinH]

PKR up to 276

Mashallah! 25 more to go...

alhamdulillah...Woh din ki jis ka wada hai!

BRF should host a party when Pakis score triple century.

[Anujan]

The game is not over yet. Purely by numbers, they are in a better position than India was in 1990s (I am talking about economic numbers, not the quality of their education, culture etc)

For low end manufacturing, you do not need that much education. However, the problem with Pakistan is that the elites are simply extracting rent.

They own plots, have cornered subsidies (electricity, water -- look at Okara farms and how the fauj cornered land and water there, low dollar peg), and are unwilling to give up power (faujis running random corn flakes plants) and are using uneducated abduls as manual labors to increase profits.

Setting the abduls free means increased cost of labor that the elites in Pakistan do not want.

Usually things like this have ended in two ways
1) Have a communist revolution like Russia or (to some extent) france, with everyone's heads rolling
2) Have a religious revolution like Iran.

[neeraj]

The ~$3.08 billion odd which they have left, out of that $3 billion is a deposit extension (originally due Dec 2022) by Saudies which I believe TSP cannot spend. Interesting times ahead.

[Dilbu]

Anujandullah, TTP is aiming for option 2. An Islamic revolution like Iran. They are already successfully selling the narrative that western style democracy only benefits whiskey swigging elites and generals. Only a pure Islamic emirate can guarantee Justice for pious awam according to them. TSP, well at least some provinces of it, is most fertile for such a revolution.

[Deans]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

IMF tells a country to manage their deficit and balance of payments within a target. Its for the borrower to figure out how to do that.

[Deans]

PKR up to 276

The rate is not very relevant now, since there are no dollars to buy at any price. For H&D sake, Pak will be allowed to say they have stabilised it at 276. In black there may be offers to buy at over 300, but no sellers.

[eklavya]

DW:
Is Pakistan's economic collapse imminent?

Long queues of cars can be seen in Pakistan's major cities, including its economic hub Karachi, outside gas stations. There is a shortage of fuel, and whatever gas is available is so costly that ordinary citizens can't afford it.

There are all kinds of other shortages right now in Pakistan. There is no gas to cook a meal in households or to run small factories, and power outages are so frequent that they have crippled the economy.

"I think we will get the IMF tranche soon because the government has raised fuel prices, imposed new taxes, and allowed market to decide dollar rates," Salman Shah, Pakistan's former finance minister, told DW.

"The IMF loan will help improve the balance of payment. At the same time, the trance will unleash a storm of inflation that might spike to up to 40-50%. People living below the poverty line, which are around 30 to 40% of the population, will suffer the most," Shah added.

The former finance minister painted a gloomy picture for local businesses. "The cost of doing business will be very high. It might be less damaging for exporters as they receive payments in dollars, but it will badly affect domestic producers, industrial raw materials and food items," Shah said, adding that it will still be better than a default.

Pakistani citizens also feel increasingly disillusioned by their ruling elite and could take to the streets.

A new United Nations report states that economic privileges accorded to Pakistan's elite groups, including the corporate sector, feudal landlords, the political class and the country's military, add up to an estimated $17.4 billion (€16 billion), or roughly 6% of its economy.

Still can’t figure out why China is standing by, or what it is asking for to intervene. China’s demands (political and financial) might be even more onerous than IMF!

[chetak]

DW:
Is Pakistan's economic collapse imminent?

Long queues of cars can be seen in Pakistan's major cities, including its economic hub Karachi, outside gas stations. There is a shortage of fuel, and whatever gas is available is so costly that ordinary citizens can't afford it.

There are all kinds of other shortages right now in Pakistan. There is no gas to cook a meal in households or to run small factories, and power outages are so frequent that they have crippled the economy.

"I think we will get the IMF tranche soon because the government has raised fuel prices, imposed new taxes, and allowed market to decide dollar rates," Salman Shah, Pakistan's former finance minister, told DW.

"The IMF loan will help improve the balance of payment. At the same time, the trance will unleash a storm of inflation that might spike to up to 40-50%. People living below the poverty line, which are around 30 to 40% of the population, will suffer the most," Shah added.

The former finance minister painted a gloomy picture for local businesses. "The cost of doing business will be very high. It might be less damaging for exporters as they receive payments in dollars, but it will badly affect domestic producers, industrial raw materials and food items," Shah said, adding that it will still be better than a default.

Pakistani citizens also feel increasingly disillusioned by their ruling elite and could take to the streets.

A new United Nations report states that economic privileges accorded to Pakistan's elite groups, including the corporate sector, feudal landlords, the political class and the country's military, add up to an estimated $17.4 billion (€16 billion), or roughly 6% of its economy.

Still can’t figure out why China is standing by, or what it is asking for to intervene. China’s demands (political and financial) might be even more onerous than IMF!

It may be the cheeni way to teach the avaricious pakis a long overdue lesson.

the elites, including the jernails have quietly, and over a longish period of time, orchestrated a low key street level resistance against the cheeni policies, and such an narrative has no precedence in the BRI/OBOR "beneficiaries". The targeted killing of the cheeni people in pukestan seems to be a part of just such a charade.

the greedy paki elites and awam expected an immediate delivery of local jobs, social security and benefits in terms of increased prosperity, setting up of factories and subsidized imports of cheeni machinery et al, and a free cross border exchange of goods and trade, including the unrestricted issue of travel visas to the cheeni mainland, and material assistance in terms of grants of money etc, a la the standards set by amrikis during their on now, off again engagements with the pakis

The autocratic cheeni are long used to getting their own way, irrespective of the ecosystem but seem to have slipped up with the pakis who have always fancied themselves as an atmi takat, worthy of unconditional global respect.

It may be better for the cheenis to deal with a broken and cowed down paki environment where a few home truths may be brutally rammed down the throat of the pakis.

The IMF anyway already seems to be doing the heavy lifting part for the cheenis.

The cheeni may just be waiting for all the IMF conditions to kick in before moving in themselves.

My two paise onlee.

[Manish_P]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

IMF tells a country to manage their deficit and balance of payments within a target. Its for the borrower to figure out how to do that.

But sir, they do examine the proposed plan in minute detail to find out if it is workable.

Hence the stringent conditions to cut the subsidies, increase the proposed rates even more to factor in the PKR depreciation, fauj pensions to be removed from under civilian expenses budget.

In the case of Sri Lanka as well they have forced them to implement immediate cut down in the military head count as well as a further cut down over the next decade

[chetak]

IMF tells a country to manage their deficit and balance of payments within a target. Its for the borrower to figure out how to do that.

But sir, they do examine the proposed plan in minute detail to find out if it is workable.

Hence the stringent conditions to cut the subsidies, increase the proposed rates even more to factor in the PKR depreciation, fauj pensions to be removed from under civilian expenses budget.

In the case of Sri Lanka as well they have forced them to implement immediate cut down in the military head count as well as a further cut down over the next decade

At times, the sly pakis have partially rolled back or diluted such politically unpalatable conditions after the loans have kicked in.

After all, there is a general election looming in the not too distant future, and the shariff govt will not take itself out of the reckoning by being seen as kowtowing to the IMF orders, more so as a self respecting, khalifa aspiring, atmi takat.

BTW, niazi may be a lot smarter that we think he is as he is bound to wind up as the sole beneficiary, sooner rather than later, in the run up to the general elections

[vimal]

So much head banging on this thread as why Pakis cannot do this or cheenis can’t do that or IMF do that. All I can say is InshaAlla boyz played well.

[Neela]

How come the IMF is not insisting on cutbacks in defense and nuclear spending?

IMF tells a country to manage their deficit and balance of payments within a target. Its for the borrower to figure out how to do that.

IMF and Pakis are a little bit more than that - they are taller and deeper friends for 30+ years. Pakistan is the only country which has had a such a long period under IMF care. IMF is the anyway the brother of (one of) the fathers.
With such a long dalliance, the IMF know they can make even Dar bring breakfast to them in bed.

chetak is right. With elections looming, the negotiations with IMF are on points like 200-unit free electricity instead of 300 units for the average retard in Pak. The IMF seems to be sticking to its stance.

You might think there is nothing in this for us. Well, you know , an IMF credit is going to come with strict conditions. Which means that the sh1thole will get a poo cloudburst - even the run up to IMF talks, inflation reached 27%.
Paki exports shrank 15% in just the last 3 months.
They cannot import even chicken feed and fertilizer - they are 9000 containers waiting at ports.
Their industries are running on subsidised electricity - IMF measures will shut even more down.
Foreign remittances are shrinking (why would anyone send money now when the PKR is busy skiing downhill)

Which means TTP, Balochis and Sindhis may get busy as security and protection may take lower priority. Situation is so bad in Afghan border that there is open pilfering of wheat. The writ of the state is missing. And all of that in West of Pakistan.
. There is something for us I reckon.

[Manish_P]

So much head banging on this thread as why Pakis cannot do this or cheenis can’t do that or IMF do that. All I can say is InshaAlla boyz played well.

Boiz are certainly playing well.. which is why despite bum blasts there is still ample time for jeehard. So who cares about gandam/atta.

[vimal]

Ya alla give them more power to remove all blasphemy and create a true Emirates of izlam under Afghan Taliban

[drnayar]

Just wondering when Pakistan implodes how can India contain the fall out . Pok would only be happy to come into Indian union, with some significant risk though. Baluchistan should be like Bhutan an independent protectorate. Unkil can take away the nukes I suppose.

[ricky_v]

Just wondering when Pakistan implodes how can India contain the fall out . Pok would only be happy to come into Indian union, with some significant risk though. Baluchistan should be like Bhutan an independent protectorate. Unkil can take away the nukes I suppose.

hi drnayar, welcome to the forum, wrt to your points:
1) Pok would only be happy to come into Indian union - but does the union of india want pok? i suppose that the area would be vital and strategic, the people with the virulent mirpuris? probably not so much
2) Baluchistan - the issue has always been with sistan, iranis have the suspense of the majority baluchis fomenting dissent ala the durrand line with the afghans, they would gum up any works with the irgc, as it would be in their self interest, the same way they dealt with the kurds
3) unkil taking the nukes - can never be sure with unkil, some nukes may fall into hands of good terrorists due to negligence, or get lost during transit, a sword to perpetually keep dangling over the subcontinent region

[drnayar]

Just wondering when Pakistan implodes how can India contain the fall out . Pok would only be happy to come into Indian union, with some significant risk though. Baluchistan should be like Bhutan an independent protectorate. Unkil can take away the nukes I suppose.

hi drnayar, welcome to the forum, wrt to your points:
1) Pok would only be happy to come into Indian union - but does the union of india want pok? i suppose that the area would be vital and strategic, the people with the virulent mirpuris? probably not so much
2) Baluchistan - the issue has always been with sistan, iranis have the suspense of the majority baluchis fomenting dissent ala the durrand line with the afghans, they would gum up any works with the irgc, as it would be in their self interest, the same way they dealt with the kurds
3) unkil taking the nukes - can never be sure with unkil, some nukes may fall into hands of good terrorists due to negligence, or get lost during transit, a sword to perpetually keep dangling over the subcontinent region

Thank you !.. I had been on the forum before with a different username not too long ago, an oldie actually. One thinks India does have a gameplan for the eventual collapse of the paki state, and could even facilitate it by turning up the heat on the western front.
Nukes are definitely of concern and the Americans or Israelis would definitely need to come in for a joint effort to contain the "fallout". It would incredibly naive to let loose even one.On this count it is also important to find out if the pakis have managed to operationally use nuclear warheads on its sub based cruise missiles., but OT here.

[Neela]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1734940/after ... n-pakistan

Pakistan already has a huge debt burden, which includes USD 23 billion of external debt repayments due and a USD 10 billion current account deficit forecast for the 2023 fiscal year. Accumulating more debt is far from ideal.

In this scenario, reshaping these funds into debt-for-nature swaps can be explored, where a portion of the debt is cancelled or reduced by the creditor in exchange for the debtor investing in nature. Similarly, nature performance bonds can be leveraged. This is a type of performance-based debt instrument, where the debt is pegged against measurable targets and nature-based outcomes such as ecosystem restoration. These tools accelerate access to climate finance while tackling the growing sovereign debt crisis, and can enable developing states like Pakistan to achieve green growth and enhance biodiversity.

They tried catchy phrases to lure donors with their begging bowl. It was a good run for decades. Now they are changing the begging bowl to a green one and asking for money.

Here is the deal. Lets say you have $100B . You are worried to death about climate and conscious of your carbon footprint. You cant sleep thinking about the ecological disaster mankind has created.
Fear not. Pakiman is here. He will take $20B of your money, invest in his country and make the arid regions of NWFP green aka ecosystem restoration. He will give you a free trip to NWFP and show how things have changed aka measurable targets. You get a free Samosa and chai. On your way back, you can take a lollipop too.
You are relieved that you have made a +ve change to the world.


Fair deal I guess.The ecosystem deal is good one and a excellent investment opportunity. I am sold because of the measurable targets. BUlletproof . But...I am waiting for the day Pakis start selling bridges - thats the best multi-bagger . Holding on to my $6B cash and waiting with bated breath for this investment opportunity. I am going to turn that into $50B or 8X. And then I will buy all of you and BRF too. You just wait.

[mody]

Remember the old movie Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar. The local students studying in the govt run local public school were referred to as 'Pajama Chhaap' by the rich private boarding school students.

For the pakis, wherever they may be in the world, the term should be 'Katora Chhaap'. The begging bowl or katora has become the signature of the entire country. They can even add that to their flag, under the crescent and the star.

[Deans]

IMF tells a country to manage their deficit and balance of payments within a target. Its for the borrower to figure out how to do that.

But sir, they do examine the proposed plan in minute detail to find out if it is workable.

Hence the stringent conditions to cut the subsidies, increase the proposed rates even more to factor in the PKR depreciation, fauj pensions to be removed from under civilian expenses budget.
In the case of Sri Lanka as well they have forced them to implement immediate cut down in the military head count as well as a further cut down over the next decade

My understanding is this:
Where it is possible to make comparisons across countries, IMF does that. For e.g. they know from experience that certain subsidies are unsustainable, or tax base is too low. They know (based on other countries experience across decades) how much taxes will increase if rates go up - and where Pak is talking from their Musharaf. That is what they can advise Pak about. If the numbers still don't make a loan viable, it is for Pak to propose cuts in sensitive areas, including the one no Pak journo will dare talk about.
For Sri Lanka, cutting defense spend is a low hanging fruit. They have no external threat that justifies even having an army.

[Deans]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1734940/after ... n-pakistan

Pakistan already has a huge debt burden, which includes USD 23 billion of external debt repayments due and a USD 10 billion current account deficit forecast for the 2023 fiscal year. Accumulating more debt is far from ideal.

In this scenario, reshaping these funds into debt-for-nature swaps can be explored, where a portion of the debt is cancelled or reduced by the creditor in exchange for the debtor investing in nature. Similarly, nature performance bonds can be leveraged. This is a type of performance-based debt instrument, where the debt is pegged against measurable targets and nature-based outcomes such as ecosystem restoration. These tools accelerate access to climate finance while tackling the growing sovereign debt crisis, and can enable developing states like Pakistan to achieve green growth and enhance biodiversity.

Been there, done that. Selling carbon credits was big business for some time. Pak journo's, having an inadequate grasp of business, are late to figure this out. West isn't going to do this any more.

[ricky_v]

Been there, done that. Selling carbon credits was big business for some time. Pak journo's, having an inadequate grasp of business, are late to figure this out. West isn't going to do this any more.

Sir, isnt sequestration and esg a big part of the western corporate lifestyle? surely the lettered paki can draw a conclusion every now and then to marry their perceived utility with western guidelines, sadly pakistan has a forest cover of only 2.2% of its land area, maybe they require funding to be able to better serve as such carbon sinks of humanity, martyr complex and pakiness all rolled in one

[ricky_v]

Thank you !.. I had been on the forum before with a different username not too long ago, an oldie actually. One thinks India does have a gameplan for the eventual collapse of the paki state, and could even facilitate it by turning up the heat on the western front.
Nukes are definitely of concern and the Americans or Israelis would definitely need to come in for a joint effort to contain the "fallout". It would incredibly naive to let loose even one.On this count it is also important to find out if the pakis have managed to operationally use nuclear warheads on its sub based cruise missiles., but OT here.

well then sir, welcome back. as for gameplans and foreign utility, hopefully the goi knows that snakes abound in this patrician basti, naivety to lose one and willingly delivering one by medieval inimical forces to semi-lettered barbarians is a fine distinction.. for the westerners, goi knows that the westerner classification of terrorists is as convoluted as their classification of sexual orientation

[RCase]

Remember the old movie Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar. The local students studying in the govt run local public school were referred to as 'Pajama Chhaap' by the rich private boarding school students.

For the pakis, wherever they may be in the world, the term should be 'Katora Chhaap'. The begging bowl or katora has become the signature of the entire country. They can even add that to their flag, under the crescent and the star.

I have already seen a picture like that. Someone already had morphed the crescent and star to be a katora and coin.

[RCase]

DW:
Is Pakistan's economic collapse imminent?

Still can’t figure out why China is standing by, or what it is asking for to intervene. China’s demands (political and financial) might be even more onerous than IMF!

China is constantly on the prowl to grab land. With control of land, they can always dictate terms. To hell with niceties of human rights, international condemnation, problematic ethnic population etc. However, in India we are brainwashed to constantly repeating that India has never coveted other's lands, even at the detriment of losing our own territory.

China's land grab:
1. Tibet. India now worries about air bases, rail connectivity, troops stationed on LAC etc.
2. Xinjiang. The Stan countries have to kowtow to the Chinese. The Chinese don't give a damn about human rights of Uighurs, the world be damned.
3. Artificial islands - nine dashed line claims to the entire SCS and ECS. Basically all the ASEAN countries were left licking their chops. Even the US can only keep complaining of these islands being weaponized and do nothing about it.
4. Sri Lanka - converted Hambantota to their ownership. Now it becomes another headache for India to defend the southern part of India.
5. Bhutan/ Nepal - eating away parts of the territory to keep advancing the front line. Nepal doesn't offer a whimper.
6. Djibouti - Have their own naval base. Now becomes a problem for the west.
7. Gwadar - de facto Chinese control making this another headache.
8. Maldives - pretty much a few islands are in Chinese control.

Contrast that with India:
1. POK, GB - not having possession, India has to contend with finding alternate circuitous trade routes to the stans. Easier integration of the Chinese and Pakis on the military front.
2. Chicken's neck - all kinds of contortions for military, trade, travel, connectivity issues with NE. Lack of port access for NE.
3. Not having Balochistan requires India to come up with finding trade routes through Iran into the stans, which is left to the mercy of Iran dictating terms.
4. Inability to have oil/ gas pipelines directly from Iran and the stans.
5. Even the new river cruise costs twice as much per day to pass through Bangladesh than Indian territory.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Chinese have already placed the noose around them, which the Pakistanis have willingly accepted. Why should they do anything to keep this country to survive, when they can pretty much can have this as their territory. They will let Pak implode and walk in to take the entire territory as collateral. They already have the land route via GB, POK to nibble away at Pak. As far as the Islamic nut jobs in Pak, they will use the Xinjiang template to overpower them and populate the hans.

[skumar]

[SRajesh]

tribune.com.pk/story/2399343/potato-to-boost-vegetable-exports
Here we go:
Eidar se Aloo bejo
Aur Udhar se Sona, sorry maaf karna, Udhar se Dollar nikalo!!

[RCase]

tribune.com.pk/story/2399343/potato-to-boost-vegetable-exports
Here we go:
Eidar se Aloo bejo
Aur Udhar se Sona, sorry maaf karna, Udhar se Dollar nikalo!!

Need to send Pappu to do a Bakistan Jodo Yatra (BJY) along with Chidu. Will have sona and their own printed dollars too!

[CalvinH]

My two cents on the cheeni puzzle.

A. Cheenis have lost total trust on the Pakis and realized

- Gernails are all compromised by the west with assets and families in west and this association is hard to break. Paki politicians and bureaucracy have the same issue. Assets and families in west. Plus politicians don't really control anything. From making policy to controlling its execution.
- Gernails will take the money and play the double game. But the hardest point probably is that gernails dont really respect or have fear of the Chinese the way they have for west. Pakis wont mind killing Chinese citizens in Pakistan to build pressure on the Chinese in the double game.
- Unlike west Chinese doesn't have any assets on the ground in Pakistan to take local actions that can help in the double game and give them some leverage. The tone at the top types influence becomes irrelevant when establishment starts playing double game.

Chinese thought that they got Pakis by the balls. Only to realize that Pakis have no balls for them to squeeze.

B. There are other issues too:
- Unlike west China has no free aid model. Not that Chinese cant afford it at a smaller scale but may be because Chinese fear to go that way and have adopted financial assistance through easier commercial contracts as a model, leveraging their scale and cost efficiencies in construction and manufacturing
- Pakistan is way past small aid level. They need continued assistance for many years. Many small ones. Chinese can't afford that.
- Paki elite is used to free money. Once they start getting free money they feel entitled to have it, and create all sort of reasons and situations to keep availing it.

Once Chinese realized they have little leverage to influence things the way they want to, Pakistan ceased as a good business case in terms of risk vs returns

So Chinese would let Pakistan go down to become like Afghanistan where they can negotiate with an authority that is suspicious of west, plays no double game and is available at much lower overhead (no kids strudying US/UK, no corner plots etc. etc.).