Possibly, but if you remember it was PML's FM Ishaq Dar who first got bakistan deeper and deeper into the mess by artificially maintaining the PKR value at too high a level and continuously eroding their forex reserves. IK got he blame for the exchange rate collapse but that was unavoidable by the time Nawaz was ousted. You might even see a return to that time where the pakis again spend money they don't have to raise the PKR rate artificially high while everyone who was pissed with IK gives them money....till eventually that runs out too and the cycle repeats.Anujan wrote: The new dispensation, under Shahbaz Sharif will probably repair all the relations and get some moolah flowing. Probably will also take some tough decisions vis-a-vis the economy and when elections are due a year from now, will be unpopular, will end up with a hung assemby that the Boyz can then manipulate
Porkistan beggars do not care about any tipping point with regards to the dollar price. They will not care even if the $ touches 250 or even 300 so long as there are enough suckers to refinance or roll over their loans and interest payments.Shaktimaan wrote:Is there a way to calculate the mathematical tipping point, where the USD-PKR exchange rate will make the Pakis default on their dollar loans?
PAKISTAN has been brought to the edge of an economic catastrophe that it has not seen for decades. While the recent ‘constitutional fraud’, and the political crisis created by the now former PTI government, is a major cause, it is not the only one. The responsibility for much of the mess lies with many governments and the ruling elite of Pakistan, both military and civilian, who have failed their constituencies, their representatives and the people in whose name, and for whom, they claim to govern.
Key indicators reveal the nature of the grave economic crisis which persists. While some correction in the rate of the rupee to the dollar was necessary, the loss in value by 40 per cent does not count as a correction. This is the result of the absence of an exchange rate and trade policy, and the speculation which hit the rupee is based on the complete lack of political vision, adding fuel to the extreme political uncertainty.
Similarly, while many economists have been warning about the deteriorating current account deficit, which could rise to 6pc of GDP
Pakistan’s economic policy has been dependent on a short-sighted, one-window operation: beg and borrow from foreign donors. The ‘war on terror’ in Pakistan and our neighbourhood exposed what development was perceived to be — mainly real estate speculation, a vision which the previous government also deluded itself into replicating. Since that costly arrangement came to an end, all governments have relied on other countries and the IMF. Each handout has come with costlier, harsher conditionalities, whether economic or geopolitical.
No government, given Pakistan’s political disequilibrium, can survive the economic storm awaiting it. It would be foolish and opportunistic of the government which replaces the PTI to stay in power for more than a few weeks. Staying on longer, rather than announcing elections, will be a decision they will regret and which will cost them the elections. One can expect more instability and agitation over the next few weeks and no new government will be allowed to govern with a belligerent PTI in opposition. The economic crisis is so deep that drastic measures will be made, which will result in further inflation, much higher petrol and electricity rates, a dollar closer to Rs200, and a higher interest rate. The economic meltdown will continue for some time.
India should not make a unilateral armed effort to reclaim PoK. India should not be seen as a military aggressor. It will unnecessarily complicate things, could backfire and make India's case weaker. We should wait for Kargil like "opportunity". Pakis being Pakis, they will give us such an opportunity.isubodh wrote:
But will it help us to reclaim PoK or get Baluchis their freedom ? What else will be needed.
These things take time. It took how many years to fix art 370 mistake? Even after so many years the window of opportunity was so small.Avinandan wrote:^^ The problem is we may not have a strong willed PM at that time.
If Indian parliament has made a resolution that PoK is integral part of India. We should get some population records collected ( be it secondary collection from pak cences) and then issue a statement that when PoK joins India only original inhabitants will be allowed and any migrant from other areas will be sent out. Post these in printed format to the PoK addresses.Manish_P wrote: The official population as per their census (if we are willing to believe it) was around 40 lakhs. Realistically it might well be twice or even thrice that number. And we know how they have pushed the pakjabis in that area, for decades, changing the ethnic composition, even if it was Islamic to begin with.
ISLAMABAD: Reducing Pakistan’s economic growth rate forecast for current fiscal year by almost one per cent, the World Bank (WB) on Wednesday said the last ditch energy subsidies by the outgoing government put an additional burden on budget and threaten the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
“GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.3pc in FY22 (against 5.6pc last year) and to 4pc in FY23”.
In January, Pakistan’s GDP growth was put at 5.2pc which has since been changed. This comes amid monetary tightening measures that began in September 2021, high base effects from the previous year, and continued high inflation eroding real private consumption growth,” the bank said.
Haram link:Inflation in Pakistan is expected to cross 15 percent by summer and with U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization showing record-high food prices through its Food Price Index, which now stands at 159 – the highest since it was formed in 1990 – this will put further upward pressure on food prices in Pakistan. The country is already suffering from a double-digit inflation. Food prices have registered an uptick of 14.5 to 15.5 percent in March on a year-on-year basis and experts have already warned about an impending threat to food security, which I had highlighted in an article in The Diplomat back in December 2021. Food prices are directly correlated with an increase in social unrest.
Furthermore, Pakistan may also face a serious balance of payment (BoP) crisis as the State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves have fallen to a perilous level of $11 billion, which is not enough to even cover one-and-a-half months of imports. The country’s reserves dropped by a whopping $5 billion in one month (of March). Imports are on the rise as highlighted by the fact that 52.2 percent of the recent increase in tax collection came from imports. The country’s trade deficit stands at a concerning $35 billion. With reserves alarmingly low, Pakistan is expected to service liabilities of $2.5 billion in the ongoing quarter alone (April to June). The composition of our reserves is also tenuous with most of it being debt financed. The IMF and China have given Pakistan $6.7 billion and $6 billion. respectively, with the rest of it coming from Saudi Arabia ($2 billion), UAE ($2 billion) and other assets.
Massive 2.5% rate increase by SBP and formation of the new government.Thakur_B wrote:Why is PKR showing short term recovery?
https://timesofislamabad.com/14-Apr-202 ... -ishaq-darI am coming back to Pakistan and will bring down US dollar to Rs 140: Ishaq Dar
LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader and former finance minister Ishaq Dar has given good news to the people.
He claimed that he will bring back the US dollar to Rs. 140 so that the economic situation can be improved.
Talking on a private TV program, senior PML-N leader Ishaq Dar said that getting a passport is a fundamental right and I will come to Pakistan soon.
Ishaq Dar used to purhase $ in the open Market.Thakur_B wrote:How are such currency manipulation carried out apart from unreasonable central bank rates?
Wouldn't that be counterintuitive?Atmavik wrote:Ishaq Dar used to purhase $ in the open Market.Thakur_B wrote:How are such currency manipulation carried out apart from unreasonable central bank rates?