Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

saip wrote:OK. Target Indian Rupee:Paki Rupee 1:3. met in the open market.
One Indian Rupee worth 3 Pakis
Sir, according to Pakis on their mainstream media channels, "Mayoosi Failana" is a crime under Islam and (and hence not Kosher on TV censored by ISPR). :((

So the correct narrative (also a favorite word of ISPR) is that the TFTA PKR overwhelmed SDRE INR with its superiority, outnumbering it 3:1 per unit of value.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sanjaykumar »

Ahh that explains why the Pakistanis report the US dollar as surging not the Pakistani rupee crashing. See not Pakistan’s fault. The Nasranis are stronger, only.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sanjaykumar »

BTW the Pakistani rupee is literally cheaper then toilet paper. One dollar will give you two hundred thirty five wipes.
neeraj
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by neeraj »

sanjaykumar wrote:BTW the Pakistani rupee is literally cheaper then toilet paper. One dollar will give you two hundred thirty five wipes.

The Paki fauj foundation should start marketing this geo tagged innovation worldwide. Sanjay you will have to surrender patent rights to GHQ. :mrgreen:
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Please ask Kaptaan to come back and fix the mess.
Hit PKR for a six.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Dollars dearth: industrialists fear industry closure
KARACHI: The industrialists in the country fear closure of industry in the wake of restrictions on the customs tariff chapter 84 and 86 imports. If import of machinery and the parts is halted, the industry would stop running gradually, they say mentioning some of the sectors have slashed their productions as they are in a difficult situation in the face of growing currency crisis.

The State Bank Foreign Exchange Department (FEOD) has made customs tariff chapter 84, 85 import payments conditional on its approval. The commercial banks, after this State Bank’s condition, are not making dollars available to the importers. After the circular issued by the FEOD on July 5, the import of every kind of plant and machinery, capital goods and raw material has stopped. Some 2000 consignments are stuck at different ports and almost same number of consignments is on its way.
The industrialists say they need a supply chain to run industry, adding big industries require raw material all the time. The State Bank’s decision severely affected the auto industry, mobile phone manufacturing and big industries negatively. The most concerned are those industrialists whose consignments have reached at the port and are being asked by the suppliers to pay the bill. Though importers have the money but are unable to send the amount to them. Those who import goods under Cash Against Document (CAD) are of the view their clients are getting angry with them as they are not able to make payment timely.

They say they can’t tell the suppliers we are not getting dollars, as it’s against the interest of the country. “But, as a result we will not get imported goods in future”, they say.
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

The writer heads the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
Flirting with default?
Before discussing how to move forward from where we are, let us look at some numbers. Debt servicing as budgeted for FY23 amounts to 80.5 per cent of the federal government’s net revenues. Unless there are major structural reforms, the country cannot run without borrowing; and that too is an amount nearly equivalent to the federal government’s net revenue. Our total debt to revenue ratio is 600 per cent (which means we are not producing enough to pay off our debt). Around two-thirds of our total debt is domestic, whereas one-third (amounting to $90 billion) is external. This means one-third of our debt liabilities get negatively affected every time the rupee loses its value against the dollar. Likewise, two-thirds of our debt liabilities (domestic debt) get negatively affected when there is an increase in the State Bank’s interest rate. Unfortunately, we are observing both a depreciation of the rupee and an increase in the interest rate for the past few months.
Pakistan’s total external financing need for FY23 is $33.5 billion, out of which, public debt maturities are about $21 billion. Pakistan would have to arrange (borrow) a substantial amount of dollars for debt retirement in FY23. Similar payments are required for years to come. Let us zoom in: out of the $21 billion, $9 billion is to be paid to bilateral creditors (mainly Saudi Arabia and China) and $5 billion to (primarily Chinese) commercial banks.
The unabated rupee depreciation has triggered a vicious cycle of speculative/panic buying and hoarding of dollars, resulting in further depreciation. Businesses are unable to plan and make decisions because of currency volatility. Their ‘long-term’ horizon has shrunk to a few weeks, beyond which they cannot predict a probable return in the real term. Consumers, on the other hand, are feeling both anguish and anger as their purchasing power shrinks with the rupee depreciation.

The bad news is that under Pakistan's current economic conditions, economic stability within or without an IMF programme would require restructuring the country’s finances; interest rates and taxes would probably rise, and government spending would decline. It would also require heavy-handed actions to preserve foreign currency, limiting energy consumption, restricting imports, and controlling the appetite for building nonproductive foreign debt.
Now it is time for some optimism however farfetched it seems. Because hey we have echaandee to maintain.
The good news is that both the ousted PTI and the incumbent coalition governments in Pakistan, albeit reluctantly, took and are still taking many of those mentioned above unpopular but much-needed decisions. This is where Pakistan’s response to the economic meltdown differs from Sri Lanka’s, and that’s why Pakistan will avoid a default.
We have witnessed that the previous and incumbent governments had to rely on the IMF for a bailout. The forthcoming government would also do the same as the state of the economy is not going to improve overnight.
We propose forming an economic security council comprising the prime minister, the finance minister, leaders of the opposition in the National Assembly and Senate, all four chief ministers, and representatives from the top military brass {Haniji, in a normal country one would ask why should the military be involved in this economic security council? For example, are they going to bomb IMF headquarters if funds are not released soon?}. Together, they should come up with a macroeconomic stability roadmap that no one among them opposes for the sake of opposition.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

And another chauka... Boiz continue to play well. Kaptaan is really providing game changing support from the pavilion :mrgreen:

Yawn - Rupee freefall continues as PKR slides to 240 in interbank
According to the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP), the rupee lost 4.48, or 1.89 per cent, compared to yesterday’s close of 236.02 by 12:03pm.

Consequently, the rupee was trading at 240.5 against the greenback.

Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan General Secretary Zafar Paracha laid the blame squarely on the country’s political situation and the government’s lack of action.
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

According to sources in the teetarland, kaptaan gave a speech where he claimed if he comes back to power he will cancel IMF deal and secure funds from overseas Pakis.

Pliss to pray he becomes PM of Pakistan again.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

partha wrote:..

Pliss to pray he becomes PM of Pakistan again.
hain? Are you saying that the awaam of bakistan is more powerful than the selector fauj :shock:
partha wrote:..

kaptaan gave a speech where he claimed if he comes back to power he will cancel IMF deal and secure funds from overseas Pakis..
That would be a sure shot way of losing the overseas vote he was trying so hard to get.. overseas bakis are only slightly more intelligent than local bakis, but even they know that sending money to bakistan is throwing it down the drain.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

The run rate is in T20 league now.
Rupee's downward spiral continues, inter-bank rate at Rs242
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee hit a new all-time low of over Rs242 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market around midday on Thursday. The currency has plunged almost 15% (or Rs31.31) during the past 10 working days.
Vips
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Pakistan's current account deficit increases to a four-year high of $17.4 billion in FY22.

Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) increased to a 4-year high of USD 17.4 billion in the fiscal year of 2021-22, indicating more troubles for the ailing economy of the cash-strapped country.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday reported that the country recorded a CAD of USD 17.406 billion in FY22 compared to a gap of just USD 2.82 billion in FY21. :mrgreen:

According to Dawn newspaper, the massive CAD speaks a lot about the severe problem of the balance of payments. The deficit of over USD 17.4 billion is more troubling in the wake of no inflows as loans while the commercial markets are not ready to accept Pakistan's bonds due to higher risks.

The current account deficit has exceeded the SBP's projection for the deficit in FY22. The CAD increased to 4.6 per cent of GDP in FY22, up from 0.8 pc in FY21.

In November 2021, the SBP issued its Annual Report and said the current account deficit is projected in the range of 2pc to 3pc of GDP during FY22.

Reports appearing in local and foreign media suggest that Pakistan can't unlock the dollar inflows until the International Monetary Fund executive board approves its staff-level agreement reached on July 15.

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has been hinting at an early deal with the IMF, but with the passage of time, the trust deficit is rising; the currency market reflects the trust deficit by depreciating the local currency on a day-to-day basis.

The CAD in June FY22 was much higher than in May as it rose to USD 2.275 billion in June compared to USD 1.430 billion in May. The CAD in June FY21 was USD 1.637 billion.

"A surge in oil imports saw CAD rise to USD 2.3 billion in June despite higher exports and remittances," the SBP tweeted on Wednesday. "So far in July, oil imports are much lower and the deficit is expected to resume its moderating trajectory," it added.

The central bank said 3.3 million tonnes of oil were imported in June, a 33pc increase over May.

"Together with higher global prices, this more than doubled the oil import bill from USD 1.4 billion to USD 2.9 billion. By contrast, non-oil imports ticked down," said the SBP.

The higher oil import bill was held for a higher current account deficit in June, but the entire fiscal year noted a very high current account deficit as the second quarter noted the biggest deficit of USD 5.565 billion.

Further details showed that exports of goods in FY22 were USD 32.45 billion while service exports were USD 6.97 billion.

The imports of goods were USD 72.05 billion, while the imports of services were USD 12.14 billion. The balance of trade in goods and services showed a net deficit of USD 44.77 billion in FY22 compared to USD 31.15 billion a year ago.

The ongoing fiscal year will face a tough time with poor inflows and higher outflows while the economic growth rate will be half of the growth achieved in the previous fiscal year, the paper said. :mrgreen:
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Dilbu wrote:The run rate is in T20 league now.
Rupee's downward spiral continues, inter-bank rate at Rs242
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee hit a new all-time low of over Rs242 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market around midday on Thursday. The currency has plunged almost 15% (or Rs31.31) during the past 10 working days.
So 1 PKr less than 33 paise, Ak Phyr
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

jash_p
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by jash_p »

207.10 Pakistani Rupee
Jul 28, 2:09 PM UTC ·


United States Dollar
United States Dollar
207.10

Pakistani Rupee
Pakistani Rupee
I got this from Paki site
Varuna
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Varuna »

^^ Interesting. Google is also showing this:

Image


But xe.com shows this:

Image
hnair
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hnair »

Most probably a Google glitch. I have seen this with Euro vs dollar a couple of months back.

PKR’s well-managed 35% slide within a quarter is intact. Baayiz are playing well. But kaptan and fridin booms are missed.
g.sarkar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

Everything is fine in Pakistan, thank you:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1698169/to-ac ... or-privacy
To AC or not to AC: The middle classes’ struggle for privacy
For middle class families, summer is a choice between comfort and privacy — the dilemma posed by the AC wala kamra.
Areesha Banglani, July 28, 2022

Summer in Pakistan is a lot of things.
Summer is mangoes in all their juicy varieties and summer is vacations, days spent idling around. Summer is trips to Murree, Naran, and Keenjhar and summer is scorching heat made worse by load shedding.
For the middle classes, summer is also a choice, a rather difficult one at that, between comfort and privacy — the dilemma posed by the AC wala kamra.
......
Gautam
CalvinH
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Varuna wrote:^^ Interesting. Google is also showing this:

Image
Paki speed has got google confused too. Ise kehte hain performance. Boiyz are playing superb.
saip
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by saip »

Google corrected it. Now it is showing it as $1 = PKR 240.30
USDtoPKR
GoogleGlitch
Atmavik
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

saip wrote:Google corrected it. Now it is showing it as $1 = PKR 240.30
USDtoPKR
GoogleGlitch

Pakis will take it as a +ve that google cares abt there fake currency
ramana
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ramana »

Its PKR/$240
i.e. 1 rupee equals PKR3 or 1 PKR= 0.33 paise.

Soon it will be PKR = 0.25 paise or char anna.
For ref in 1947 1 Rupee= IPKR= 1$
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Atmavik wrote: GoogleGlitch
Pakis will take it as a +ve that google cares abt there fake currency
:D

Or they will claim it as proof of conspiracy that US-Israel-India are pushing the value lower than the actual value :((
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

g.sarkar wrote:Everything is fine in Pakistan, thank you:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1698169/to-ac ... or-privacy...

To AC or not to AC: The middle classes’ struggle for privacy
..summer is scorching heat made worse by load shedding.
For the middle classes, summer is also a choice, a rather difficult one at that, between comfort and privacy — the dilemma posed by the AC wala kamra.
......
Gautam


This is a 'problem' faced by about 1 percent of the elite RAPEs in bakistan.. that is the percentage households who have ACs

Good news is that increased load shedding even in RAPE areas (except Fauji colonies, of course) is bringing about a sort of equality between the awaam.
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Kaptaan o kaptaan,
come back to maidaan,
Hit kaafir dollah for six,
Match is still not fixed,
After the match do say,
Yahud Hanud ki saajish hai,
But we will win anyway,
Coz how well the boiyz play
Last edited by vimal on 29 Jul 2022 12:13, edited 1 time in total.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

vimal wrote:Kaptaan o kaptaan,
come back to maidaan,
Hit kaafir dollah for six,
Match is still not fixed,
After the match do say,
How well the boiyz play
:rotfl:

Mashallah!

..and inshallah, as well!
Atmavik
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Atmavik »

ramana wrote:Its PKR/$240
i.e. 1 rupee equals PKR3 or 1 PKR= 0.33 paise.

Soon it will be PKR = 0.25 paise or char anna.
For ref in 1947 1 Rupee= IPKR= 1$

They have to bat at sehwag speed to get to 320 . If any can do it .. it will be kaptaan backed by the tactical brilliance of Pindi boys
vera_k
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vera_k »

At this point, wouldn't it make sense for Pakistan to adopt US dollar or Chinese yuan as the local currency?
It would simplify matters immensely, as any $s or yuan Pakistanis lay hands on can be used directly. Foreign aid negotiations can also be simplified to number of printing presses and currency paper to be supplied.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

vera_k wrote:At this point, wouldn't it make sense for Pakistan to adopt US dollar or Chinese yuan as the local currency?
It would simplify matters immensely, as any $s or yuan Pakistanis lay hands on can be used directly. Foreign aid negotiations can also be simplified to number of printing presses and currency paper to be supplied.
That's a good idea.. and then the PKR notes themselves can be exported, as tissue paper, to Amreeka, thus helping to bring in precious dollars.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Govt may increase petrol, diesel prices by Rs10-17per litre
ISLAMABAD: From August 01, 2022, there may be an increase in petrol and diesel prices by Rs10-17 per litre despite the fact that prices of petroleum products and crude oil remained just a little lower. However, the increase has been estimated upwards just because of the fact that the exchange rate has gone crazy.

According to sources, the hike by Rs10 in petrol and Rs16-17 in diesel prices has been estimated without the inclusion of the petroleum levy (PL). And in case the government increases the petroleum levy of Rs5 per litre on petrol, then Mogas price has been projected at Rs15 per litre and diesel at Rs23 per litre. The expected rise in POL prices has also been worked out without the inclusion of an increase in dealers’ margins (DMs) on POL price by Rs2.10 per litre on petrol and Rs2.87 per litre on diesel to Rs7 per litre approved by ECC here on Thursday. And if Rs2.10 in the price of petrol is added, then its price may increase 17.10 per litre and Rs2.87 is added, then diesel price may go up to Rs25.87 per litre.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

It is getting really tough to track all the price hikes, there is mention of 3 hikes in the 2 paras below..

waiting for Kaptaan to come back and make it simple (to bankruptcy) for the baki awaam, as well as us fans

Yawn - Citizens to pay extra Rs 155 bn in August power bills
Citizens will see an extra cost of up to Rs 11.5 per unit in their August bills for the electricity they consumed in June after the national power regulator, Nepra, allowed distribution companies to charge an additional Rs 155 billion to compensate for the higher fuel generation cost in June.

On Tuesday, the government announced an increase of Rs 7.91 per unit in average base tariff across the country in three phases starting with effect from July. It has also approved Rs 1.55 per unit increase in base tariff across the country under a quarterly adjustment.
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

Anujan wrote:
I don't sense much panic in the ruling elite. As per diplomatic sources, Pakistan has enough forex for just 3 weeks of imports but army is engineering judicial coups against a provincial govt. Maybe they have secured a conditional deal with IMF hence confident of some dollar inflows soon.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

S&P downgrades outlook on Pakistan’s long-term ratings to ‘negative’
KARACHI: After Moody’s and Fitch, the S&P Global Ratings on Thursday revised the outlook on Pakistan’s long-term ratings to negative from stable.

The S&P affirmed its ‘B-’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Pakistan, as well as ‘B-’ long-term issue rating on the country’s senior unsecured notes and Sukuk Trust Certificates.

“Pakistan’s external position weakens against a backdrop of higher commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and a weakening rupee,” said the agency.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

There you are folks... PKR reaches 250.

Boiz are hitting it out of the park

Yawn - PKR falls to historic low of 250 in open market due to ‘profiteering’
The rupee fell to an all-time low in the open market on Friday, trading as high as 250 against the dollar, according to data shared by the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP).

A handout provided by FAP showed the rupee was trading at 250 against the greenback at 1:10pm but then recovered slightly to reach 247 by 4:20pm.

However, the local currency made small gains in the interbank after nearly two weeks of consistent decline in consecutive sessions.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Jits »

Manish_P wrote:There you are folks... PKR reaches 250.

Boiz are hitting it out of the park

Yawn - PKR falls to historic low of 250 in open market due to ‘profiteering’
The rupee fell to an all-time low in the open market on Friday, trading as high as 250 against the dollar, according to data shared by the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP).
Ek Paav ka Dollar !!! :lol: :rotfl:
nachiket
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by nachiket »

Bajwa himself is now openly begging the Americans for $1.2bn. :rotfl:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... bt-default

As funny as this whole situation is, I think most of the recent fall in value is due to a combination of speculation and typical paki political chaos. This will get reversed to an extent after Showbaaz sells their asses to the Sheiks. That is an elusive bit of non-debt forex inflow that the pakis will salivate over. Once they get the IMF bailout restarted, the Saudis and Chinese will restart their loan programmes too and it will be back to business as usual for a while with the PKR climbing to 210 or so again till the next inevitable crisis. And a crisis there will be because I fully expect the current govt. to restart fuel and electricity subsidies as soon as they get some money to avoid Showbaaz from getting thrown out on his Musharraf or worse by the angry Abduls.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

nachiket wrote:Bajwa himself is now openly begging the Americans for $1.2bn. :rotfl:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... bt-default
Tactical brilliance again.

If they had taliban out of afghanistan, then they could have blocked NATO convoy and demanded more coalition support payments. They tactically brilliantly have taliban in power and no leverage against Unkil.

Not sure if Massa will bite. We will know it has if bad Haqqani and Some Al Qaeda No 2 get droned.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

nachiket wrote:Bajwa himself is now openly begging the Americans for $1.2bn. :rotfl:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... bt-default
As funny as this whole situation is, I think most of the recent fall in value is due to a combination of speculation and typical paki political chaos. This will get reversed to an extent after Showbaaz sells their asses to the Sheiks. That is an elusive bit of non-debt forex inflow that the pakis will salivate over. Once they get the IMF bailout restarted, the Saudis and Chinese will restart their loan programmes too and it will be back to business as usual for a while with the PKR climbing to 210 or so again till the next inevitable crisis. And a crisis there will be because I fully expect the current govt. to restart fuel and electricity subsidies as soon as they get some money to avoid Showbaaz from getting thrown out on his Musharraf or worse by the angry Abduls.
I think it is now beyond such "paltry" sums like $1.2 billion. They need massive amounts, but no one seems to be willing bakras. If they are unable to raise the loan (more like a gift, as they will not return it), we will see hyper inflation of the kind we saw in Zimbabwe or Germany in 1920s.
Gautam
On a second thought $1.2bn could be the amount Bajwa wants for retirement.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

g.sarkar wrote:
nachiket wrote:Bajwa himself is now openly begging the Americans for $1.2bn. :rotfl:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... bt-default
As funny as this whole situation is, I think most of the recent fall in value is due to a combination of speculation and typical paki political chaos. This will get reversed to an extent after Showbaaz sells their asses to the Sheiks. That is an elusive bit of non-debt forex inflow that the pakis will salivate over. Once they get the IMF bailout restarted, the Saudis and Chinese will restart their loan programmes too and it will be back to business as usual for a while with the PKR climbing to 210 or so again till the next inevitable crisis. And a crisis there will be because I fully expect the current govt. to restart fuel and electricity subsidies as soon as they get some money to avoid Showbaaz from getting thrown out on his Musharraf or worse by the angry Abduls.
I think it is now beyond such "paltry" sums like $1.2 billion. They need massive amounts, but no one seems to be willing bakras. If they are unable to raise the loan (more like a gift, as they will not return it), we will see hyper inflation of the kind we saw in Zimbabwe or Germany in 1920s.
Gautam
On a second thought $1.2bn could be the amount Bajwa wants for retirement.
The headlines and articles are a bit misleading.

The IMF loan amount itself is small in the context of what Pakistan needs. However the IMF loan is only provided when Pakistan agrees to the reforms demanded by the IMF and shows the required transparency and compliance including cutting down on the creative accounting and channels that the elite+military use to skim off the public funds.

The IMF approval is thus extremely valuable to Pakistan, as all the other donors like Saudi have refused to loan any money unless the IMF program is approved first, and hence the IMF program will unlock financing for them from other sources.

The IMF loan itself is quite straightforward to get, if they agree to reform and take the required measures in an honest manner, like other countries have done. No need to lobby the US for that.

So he is not begging them for just the $1.2B (which is the amount the IMF is supposed to provide), nor is he begging for just the IMF approval per se, but he is begging for IMF approval without the terms and conditions (which are all pretty reasonable and sensible and would readily be agreed to in a normal country), so that they can pull the same loan/financing scam without actually working for it, like they had done in the past. The past 23 times when they went to the IMF they either got the Americans to water down the conditions, or agreed to the IMF terms and abandoned the program (including the reforms that they agreed to) after taking the money. This time everyone involved seems to be a lot less ready to humor them.
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

The basic issue is that Al-Bakistan has a staff-level agreement with IMF, but it has not been voted upon by IMF directors.

The fly in the ointment is that Massa is the biggest voter. In the past Massa wanted guarantees that IMF loans will not be used to repay China and CPEC.

Now that is a complicated condition, because money is fungible. If I borrow money from you and promise to not use it to repay china, but use it for buying food, and used my money that I set aside for buying food to repay china -- does it mean I used your money to repay China?

Al-Bakistan is deadly scared that IMF board will not approve this loan without asking Bakistan to go and enforce further conditions, or demand more data like CPEC financials (Which China and Pakistan insist are confidential). Even a few months delay will be bad for them -- if the Governors seek more assurances.

Essentially Al-Bakistan's one testimonial is in Massa's hand, another testimonial is in China's hand. Massa and China want both testimonials for themselves. Therefore they are squeezing their hand into a fist and trying to punch each other. You can imagine the plight of the testimonial owner.
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