Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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kit
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kit »

Bart S wrote:
CalvinH wrote:Mashahallah. Up and onwards to glory.

Looks like American help to Afghanistan was keeping Paki economy going. No wonder Pakis are desperately trying to get help for Afghanistan.

More demand for dollars for in Pakistan is also because people in Afghanistan are now seeking dollars as they dont trust Afghani any more. As per traders in Peshawar $1M-$1.5M are being traded everyday and taken to Afghanistan. If transaction in Afghani are not banned PKR will slip even more.
Spot on, and it looks like there was a direct inflow of dollars from Afghanistan (sourced via US funding and aid money etc) to Pakistan, that has now slowed to a trickle.
Talk about killing the proverbial golden goose., but then its bakis we are talking about :mrgreen:
CalvinH
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Pratyush wrote:Why is it necessary for Pakistan establishment that Taliban should be recognised.

If they had any brains, they would keep quiet on the topic and let Taliban feel the anxiety. That is one of the levers for Pakistan to use against Taliban.

This speaks poorly about Pakistani strategic thought process.

The economic stress is not really offering any explanation about their circumstances..
Pakis know Taliban very well. The bar for the stone age idiots to feel anxiety is almost non existent. They can see the last person in Afghanistan suffer and die and will take it happily as Allah's will. Plus they have a victory to feel good for another 100 defeats and years of suffering.

So Pakis want Taliban to be recognized though Taliban themselves seems to be in no hurry for it. Unless Taliban government is recognized Dollars wont flow into Afghanistan.
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Haramiweb says open market has crossed Rs 172. That is a hundred and the magic number 72 PKR for every dollar. https://hamariweb.com/finance/forex/usd-to-pkr.aspx May the number multiply.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

Looks like Pakis have done worst to stem the dollar demand
1. Couldnt negotiate with IMF and other banks on time. No deal right now
2. No long term gas deal with winters coming.Last spot buy was costliest in Pakistan's history
3. Couldnt negotiate with Chini birathers for $15Billion power plant payment
4. Commodity prices sky rocketing in the global market
5. No respite or plan for Illegal trade with Afghanistan that makes Pakis import for Afghans
6. Dwindling storage of essential food items including Wheat and Sugar
7......

Pakis are done if they have bad crop in coming season.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

Inshallah Rs 200 PKR/ USD by end of the year.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

CalvinH wrote:Looks like Pakis have done worst to stem the dollar demand
1. Couldnt negotiate with IMF and other banks on time. No deal right now
2. No long term gas deal with winters coming.Last spot buy was costliest in Pakistan's history
3. Couldnt negotiate with Chini birathers for $15Billion power plant payment
4. Commodity prices sky rocketing in the global market
5. No respite or plan for Illegal trade with Afghanistan that makes Pakis import for Afghans
6. Dwindling storage of essential food items including Wheat and Sugar
7......

Pakis are done if they have bad crop in coming season.
harsh lessons are being taught to both the pakis and the cheenis.

the cheeni do not have clout with international agencies despite their much vaunted fiscal and economic power

the pakis are getting their comeuppance via the loan agencies

the saudis an other jehadis are staying very clear because they do not know which way the cat is going to jump and they don't want to get caught in the middle of a pissing contest.

India is doing the right thing so far, making the right noises and keeping a tight hold on the purse and aid strings, and sometimes playing the victim is the best bet.

the amerikis and the europeans are also in the wait and watch mode, knowing that it is for the cheeni to make the next move aid wise and they have ponied up $30Mil so far.

niazi and bajwa are going apeshit because no one is giving them the alms that the pakis so desperately need

the talibanis, who thought that they will waltz into the UN and be feted by one and all for "defeating" the ameriki devils will eventually blame the pakis and the cheenis, sooner rather than later, for their disastrous predicament and international isolation

all supplies will have to come from the pakis or the afghan suicide bombers will soon start to play their deadly tune


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmTCME0b0M8






'What about us?': Imran Khan cries foul at UNGA as US slams Pakistan for backing Taliban

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r3nOVPgLgY


Pakistan PM Imran Khan asks world leaders to give legitimacy to Taliban at 76th UNGA summit


yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Cheenis have "their own" multilateral institutions but those are run, for the moment, for monetary benefit or for geo-economic benefit of the Chinese industrial sector, and not for geo-political leverage. As far as Pak goes, China already has geo-political leverage and no need for them to waste further money. Chinese run AIIB and BRICS bank so far follow a very fiscally responsible approach, at many times piggybacking on World Bank/ADB analysis to identify projects to lend to.

Yeah agree with the conclusion that Pakistan is toast.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

chetak wrote:niazi and bajwa are going apeshit because no one is giving them the alms that the pakis so desperately need
That was the whole game plan. Instead of directly asking for alms (for their own use), the pakis shifted gears and strategy to ask on behalf the tellibunnies. The caveat will be that the pakis will convince the international agencies that they get to manage those alms (in US$$), convert them to pkr and then selectively deploy those alms in areas where only they look good. BTW, Pakis already have an agreement with the bunnies that all inter paki-bunny trade will be in pkr.

See how devious the pakis are?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by rajsunder »

chetak wrote:
CalvinH wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmTCME0b0M8






'What about us?': Imran Khan cries foul at UNGA as US slams Pakistan for backing Taliban

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r3nOVPgLgY


Pakistan PM Imran Khan asks world leaders to give legitimacy to Taliban at 76th UNGA summit


taliabn khan is just saying "allah ke naam pe dede baba " in english.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bharathp »

bill introduced in US to sanction Pakistan - i added the details in TSP thread
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Just a threat of possible sanctions does this to the 'bestest' performing stock market in the north western indian subcontinent-... :D

Stocks plunge at PSX as KSE-100 sheds 908 points on US Senate bill proposing sanctions
Stocks fell nearly 3 per cent on Wednesday while the rupee dropped to a record low, as investors feared a US Senate bill that is seeking to impose sanctions on the Afghan Taliban could be extended to Pakistan.

After only a day of breather, sellers were back in action, which was also triggered by anxiety regarding the rupee as the KSE-100 shed 908 points on Wednesday to close at 44,366.74, down 2 per cent.
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Rupee falls to fresh lows
The rupee ended at 171.80 per dollar in the open market. It had settled at 171.60 in the previous session.
“The dollar demand from importers remained there and the inflows were not enough to meet the demand,” said a currency dealer.
“We expect the rupee to end FY2022 at 175-176 levels,” said an analyst.
Who wants to bet that the pkr reaches the US$1:Pkr 200 exchange rate by December 31, 2021? That will be @ 2 Pkr per week.

Haramiyon ka link: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/896039 ... fresh-lows
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by disha »

I will be disappointed if by year-end Bakistan-USD does not reach 272 and more.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

disha wrote:I will be disappointed if by year-end Bakistan-USD does not reach 272 and more.
Ameen, Summa Ameen. But do not underestimate the talent of Pakistan in begging from the West. Historically, it has always been successful in begging.
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

anupmisra wrote:Rupee falls to fresh lows

Who wants to bet that the pkr reaches the US$1:Pkr 200 exchange rate by December 31, 2021? That will be @ 2 Pkr per week.
Actually Imran charsi got lucky. The IMF program in the initial stages had some Porki planners aiming for the Jinnah toilet paper to dollar ratio of 180:1 and the govt oil companies had even planned for purchase at those level.

Hope now it crosses double century soon enough to make up for the deficit :wink:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

bharathp wrote:bill introduced in US to sanction Pakistan - i added the details in TSP thread
taliban khan has aged significantly. looking haggard, haunted, desperate, and defeated.

maybe some graphic visions of zulfikar bhutto twitching and dangling at the end of the rope are beginning to haunt him

It's high time that someone advised him to switch the botox injections from ass to face
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

The romance with '72 didn't last. PKR open market has breached 173. Wa'llah
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

yensoy wrote:The romance with '72 didn't last. PKR open market has breached 173. Wa'llah
Fitch expects dollar to reach Rs180 in 2022
Fitch Ratings revised down its forecasts for the Pakistani rupee on Thursday for both this year and next due to a variety of factors including an increased flow of US dollars into Afghanistan, projecting an average rate of 180 versus a previous forecast of 165 in 2022.
The rupee, which has been termed the worst-performing currency in Asia, seems to have opened the field for the bullish US dollar to move forward unchecked and erode the remaining value of the local currency.
Haram ka link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1649331/fitch ... 80-in-2022
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Lohit »

Foreign exchange: SBP reserves fall $249m to $19.3 (Sep '30)

Harami link: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2322688/fo ... 9m-to-193b

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank fell 1.27% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On September 24, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $19,294.5 million, down $249 million compared with $19,543.4 million recorded on September 17.

The central bank cited no reason behind the decrease in the reserves. :rotfl:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

How on earth do their industries even function ? How are they financing imports for a population of over 250 million people ? India's weekly oil import bill is around $2.5 billion dollars and that's just in crude oil alone ! And the pakis are running their entire economy on a paltry $19 billion in forex ? Damn !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Lohit wrote:Foreign exchange: SBP reserves fall $249m to $19.3 (Sep '30)

Harami link: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2322688/fo ... 9m-to-193b
Depleting at a rate faster than Im the Dim's confidence level. See link below that shows a higher reserve on August 31. Foreign currency reserves were only $17 Bn. Much of it was probably borrowed money to bolster up the reserve.

haramkhoron ka link: https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Liquidity.pdf
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Ambar wrote:How on earth do their industries even function ? How are they financing imports for a population of over 250 million people ?
By buying US$ in the open market. That's why the big delta between the official and open market rates.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

This is the official position:

USD TO PKR - OPEN MARKET FOREX RATES HISTORY
DATE BUYING SELLING
30 Sep, 2021 172.30 173.30
29 Sep, 2021 171.40 172.40
28 Sep, 2021 170.50 171.50
27 Sep, 2021 170.50 171.50
25 Sep, 2021 170.60 171.60
24 Sep, 2021 170.40 171.40
23 Sep, 2021 169.70 170.70
22 Sep, 2021 169.40 170.30
21 Sep, 2021 169.50 170.40
20 Sep, 2021 169.00 170.00
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

anupmisra wrote:Fitch expects dollar to reach Rs180 in 2022
Haram ka link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1649331/fitch ... 80-in-2022
Based on the rate at which the paki rupee is now tanking, Fitch's projections are very generous. If the actual value falls to 200 and is confirmed by Fitch, mango pakis will make a run for buying US $ in the open market and thus accelerate the fall.

A double century by November 2021?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

If its falling rapidly like in case of other basket case economies like Lebanon, Argentina etc. the currency traders will be unwilling to sell dollars/euros/pounds without a huge premium. If the PKR breaches Rs200 then there's nothing stopping it from falling to Rs 250, so a currency trader selling dollar at Rs 205 is still assuming significant risk.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Ambar wrote:If its falling rapidly like in case of other basket case economies like Lebanon, Argentina etc. the currency traders will be unwilling to sell dollars/euros/pounds without a huge premium. If the PKR breaches Rs200 then there's nothing stopping it from falling to Rs 250, so a currency trader selling dollar at Rs 205 is still assuming significant risk.
That is correct. Even the state bank may make a run for the US$ in the open market to bolster up its fast-depleting reserves. After all, they have mouths to feed - TSPA, chinis, Sheikh Chilli, Weasel-face Yusuf and whatshisname Koreysh.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

When it rains, it pours!

Ban on export of commodities sought to contain domestic prices
Baffled by the rising food inflation, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin on Wednesday asked the Ministry of Commerce to expedite the process of slapping a ban on the export of perishable commodities to control prices in domestic market.
...for a period of three months...
An official announcement of the Finance Division said the decision has been taken in view of seasonal variations as well as rapidly evolving situation in Afghanistan.
Pakistan perishable exports include all kinds of vegetables including onion, potatoes, tomatoes, fruits and meats including beef and chicken, and fish.
Meanwhile, a silver lining in the dark clouds:
Secretary Finance Yousuf Khan briefed the NPMC about decline in weekly inflation by 0.07pc.
Harami link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1649241/ban-o ... tic-prices
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by nachiket »

Ambar wrote:How on earth do their industries even function ? How are they financing imports for a population of over 250 million people ? India's weekly oil import bill is around $2.5 billion dollars and that's just in crude oil alone ! And the pakis are running their entire economy on a paltry $19 billion in forex ? Damn !
$19 billion in forex is a very high value by paki standards. Around 2018 or so they had fallen down to 11-12 billion and catastrophe had been predicted. But they managed to beg, borrow and steal again to get them back up. Most of the increase to over 20 billion happened because of fresh borrowing and IMF money along with drop in imports during covid lockdowns. Sooner or later they will go into their usual cycle of the forex reserves dropping to precipitous levels again until China or SA or IMF bails them out yet again and they ride high for some time. Rinse and repeat. They always reach the edge of the cliff before being pulled back. I don't know what can tip them over the edge. Very frustrating.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kit »

Ambar wrote:How on earth do their industries even function ? How are they financing imports for a population of over 250 million people ? India's weekly oil import bill is around $2.5 billion dollars and that's just in crude oil alone ! And the pakis are running their entire economy on a paltry $19 billion in forex ? Damn !
You forgot the trillions of djinn dollar reserves !.. thats how they finance their ever expanding nuclear program and the green pointy mijjiles !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kit »

nachiket wrote:
Ambar wrote:. I don't know what can tip them over the edge. Very frustrating.
US led economic sanctions
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

Their economy may push them over the cliff but it won't be anytime soon. They were extremely lucky in partition that they got a lot of very fertile land , food wise if they curtail the export they are pretty self sufficient except for edible oil and few pulses. Its not the food production but access to food & water which may trap them eventually if they don't get a grip on inflation and their burgeoning population. In a way Pakistan is a much poorer, uglier, dirtier version of Lebanon, both are geographically important and at the junction of civilizations, both swing from one crisis to another, the only thing certain about their future is another rapidly approaching catastrophe and both have a significant diasporic population which is completely delusional.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

Ambar wrote:Their economy may push them over the cliff but it won't be anytime soon. They were extremely lucky in partition that they got a lot of very fertile land , food wise if they curtail the export they are pretty self sufficient except for edible oil and few pulses. Its not the food production but access to food & water which may trap them eventually if they don't get a grip on inflation and their burgeoning population. In a way Pakistan is a much poorer, uglier, dirtier version of Lebanon, both are geographically important and at the junction of civilizations, both swing from one crisis to another, the only thing certain about their future is another rapidly approaching catastrophe and both have a significant diasporic population which is completely delusional.
Well, with all that fertile land and abundant water, and canals built and handed over to them on a platter by British India (and then independent India via Nehru's IWT payout) they have still managed to **** up their agriculture. They have to import sugar and wheat, and were reliant on imported cotton for their textile industries (one of the reasons why they wanted to import cheap cotton from India but their own political mess put paid to that).
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mort Walker »

kit wrote:
nachiket wrote:
US led economic sanctions

The US may bail them out late this year or early next year. Lots of $$$ aid from US budget may be coming their way.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

And what does Uncle Sam get in return? why would they help the porkis now that the immediate dependence on Pakistan is Zero?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Vips wrote:And what does Uncle Sam get in return? why would they help the porkis now that the immediate dependence on Pakistan is Zero?
The only reason Pakis have survived that world over there has been vitriol anti-Hindu lobby which has kept them afloat, this lobby will have to walk away from its 75 year old strategy. Thats why the plain truth of 9/11 was ignored and Pakis helped.

Pakis got a very good deal at Partition (they were allowed to kill 30% of their population and steal everything from them) but f***** it up in 50 years, they have been given generous amount of aid help etc
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bharathp »

https://www.africanews.com/2021/09/30/k ... -pakistan/
In a statement, Kibicho said "the majority of these travellers have originated from Pakistan and have valid transit visas to Saudi Arabia that are issued on arrival. Going forward, the government will restrict the number of foreigners transiting through the country to levels that do not pose a risk to Kenya's national interest".

Kenya’s Citizen Digital reported that in a letter to the High Commission of Pakistan, Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said: “the Government of Kenya regrets that some of these passengers are taking advantage of Kenya’s status with these countries with regard to the COVID-19 quarantine regulations. This threatens to undermine Kenya’s agreements with these countries which are put in place to ensure continuation of business and travel operations between our countries”.
what does it say when a country like kenya has to stop the maruding hoardes of mard-e-momin are now desperate to overrun the poor african nations for better economic prospects? any place other than pakistan is good for the aam abdul pakistani
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by g.sarkar »

Ambar wrote:If its falling rapidly like in case of other basket case economies like Lebanon, Argentina etc. the currency traders will be unwilling to sell dollars/euros/pounds without a huge premium. If the PKR breaches Rs200 then there's nothing stopping it from falling to Rs 250, so a currency trader selling dollar at Rs 205 is still assuming significant risk.
Pakistan is surviving because of its unwashed mango people sending money home every month. It received record $29.4 billion remittances during the financial year 2020-21. Estimated $2 billion is coming in every month. Modiji is working on this. I am sure the flow will be stemmed in the coming months and years and then decline, as the Arab Ummah falls out of love. After that the only hope for Pak youth will be to join IT.
Gautam
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Well said.

Another angle I have read is that as the US interest (dependency) on gulf oil vanishes so will the protection umbrella it offers.

The gulf nations will then grow very insecure about each other and paranoid about the millions of Jihadi Pakis residing in their lands..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^Oil and NG prices are going up. The US has once again become dependent on gulf nations to increase supply to keep prices from rising too fast.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

I have serious doubt on Paki remittances. I think a significant part of the remittances is black money routed back into the Paki economy by the Paki elites. Paki elites makes money from Paki economy by either taking the money out illegally or collects kick backs in western world. Money is routed back into Paki economy especially in real estate. The real estate in Pakistan is thus the asset which everyone eyes, from Political elite to Gernails.

In Pakistan by law there is no scrutiny on remittances under 50 Lacs Pkr. This used to be 1 Cr Pkr till 2019.
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