Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

All of the above. Unkil's funding stoppage and rapid exit from Afghanistan has been a huge negative to them. Covid did it's own magic. Even during Covid, the Army decided to reward itself with a 15% or 25% salary raise which would have played a number on Paki govt finances. Low-tech industry is in decline, pretty much as it is everywhere in the world due to China's "deglobalization" of manufacturing. Unless the industry has some major benefit such as scale (by catering to a large domestic market) or having some unique IP or expertise, it is doomed or relegated to very low margins and terrible working conditions. Agriculture has never been encouraged in Pakistan the way it has in India through subsidies on all inputs and MSPs, yet good agriculture happened because of excellent soil/water and large land holdings in Pakistan (remember most awaam are sharecroppers/tenant farmers only). But with the country seeing 3-4% annual population growth it's only a matter of time that what they produce is insufficient for feeding their people, as it seems to have happened. I don't think we have blocked off any water from them under IWT, not sure if we currently have the ability to do so. Cash crops of sugarcane and cotton are also in disarray - much better/cheaper cotton is coming from Xinjiang and Ferghana valley. Remittances are down due to clear changes in the gulf with localization efforts in places like Saudi.

The government is unable to dole out welfare schemes for its population, nor is it able to spend on education, health and social infrastructure. I am surprised they are still somewhat solvent. Maybe they should be "encouraged" to spend a little more on the military.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pak currency in freefall: Rs54 lost against dollar in current govt’s tenure
ISLAMABAD: The value of the Pakistani rupee has fallen by 30.5 percent against the US dollar over the last three years and four months under the government of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).The rupee witnessed massive depreciation from Rs123 against the US dollar in August 2018 to Rs177 against the US dollar in December 2021, a decline of 30.5 percent over the last 40 months. This makes it one of highest devaluations of the currency in the country’s history. The only other higher devaluation occurred when Dhaka fell and Pakistan’s currency was devalued by 58 percent from Rs4.60 to Rs11.10 against the US dollar in 1971-72.

Many independent economists argue that this recent devaluation of the currency was dictated by the IMF through prior actions and it has nothing to do with macroeconomic fundamentals.
An analysis of regional currencies versus the US dollar shows that the Pakistani currency experienced massive depreciation compared to others.

The Indian rupee stood at 75.39 against a US dollar. The Indian rupee stood at Rs70.09 against the US dollar in 2018, Rs73.66 in December 2019, Rs74.53 in March 2020 and Rs74.57 in April 2021.

In the case of Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi Taka stood at 85.76 against the US dollar and it hovered around 84 to 85.9 on average over the last two years.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee continued to fall in value and stood at Rs177 against a US dollar in December 2021. It depreciated sharply from Rs123 against to Rs177 against a dollar over the last three years and four months.
Rupee and Instability

During the Musharraf-Shaukat Aziz regime between 1999 and 2007, the country’s currency remained largely stable and hovered around Rs60 against a US dollar. When the PPP-led regime came to power in 2008, the rupee depreciated as a result of a rising current account deficit and slid to Rs80 just in a few months.

Then, the rupee further adjusted against the dollar in a gradual manner after Pakistan joined the IMF program and remained around Rs90 against the US dollar from 2008 to 2013. In June 2013, the currency stood at Rs98.5 against the US dollar.

Then, the PMLN came to power in 2013. In November 2013, the Pakistani currency stood at Rs107.5 against the US dollar. Former finance minister Ishaq Dar’s policies brought the rupee down to an average rate of Rs98 against the US dollar in June 2014.

The Pakistani rupee remained stable at Rs100 in August 2014 while it adjusted slightly and settled at Rs105 against the US dollar in 2015-16 and 2016-17. Then, former finance minister Miftah Ismail allowed adjustment of the rupee against the dollar and it nosedived to Rs118 against US dollar in June 2018.

The rupee continued to slide during the interim rule of a caretaker government. However, when the PTI-led regime joined the government in August 2018, the rupee stood at Rs123 against the US dollar.

Then, Pakistan joined the IMF programmer and the rupee on average further depreciated and stood at Rs155 against the US dollar in June 2019. Till April 2020, the rupee continued to depreciate to Rs164 against the US dollar. In August 2020, the rupee touched Rs167.7 against the US dollar.

For a brief period, till April 2021, the rupee strengthened and remained on average at Rs152 against the US dollar. Since April 2021, however, the Pakistani currency witnessed a fresh wave of depreciation as the rupee on average touched Rs156 against the US dollar in June 2021, Rs168 in September 2021 and Rs170 in November 2021. In December 2021, the rupee crossed Rs177 against US dollar.
if data of the past decade was analysed, it would show that India and Bangladesh had allowed depreciation when it was required. If data from 2016 to 2018 was analysed, it would show that Pakistan’s current account deficit worsened but the rupee remained stable; while in India there was a lesser current account deficit but the Indian rupee depreciated from Rs63 to Rs71 against the US dollar.

He said Pakistan kept its rupee on the higher side and so accumulated depreciation occurred. He termed this phenomenon as “forced depreciation” as the foreign currency reserves depleted and the current account deficit widened. He said the events in Afghanistan also added pressure on Pakistan’s exchange rate.


Pakistan, he said, joined the IMF programme so it was left with no other option but to ensure implementation on the forced depreciation. “The main problem lies with our policies as it also triggers panic and uncertainty,” he added.
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

I don't know what this Rhona Dhona is about but the Pakistani Rupee is pretty stable at around 175 to the dollar or 2.3 to the Indian Rupee, its time for another 20-30% depreciation, it quickly needs to reach the ideological 10 Paki Rupees for 1 Kuffar Rupee.
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

176.79 now
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

They aren’t trying hard enough. They need to send 72 hourupee for each haram rupee.
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

AoA!! (double exclamation). 180 breached. Mubaraks to eberyone. Boyj pilayed bell. Saudi "loan" helped!

Thursday 9th of December 2021 07:48:59 PM - The current USD to PKR buying exchange rate is 180.25 as per Pakistan Open Market

Haram link: https://www.forex.pk/currency-usd-to-pk ... dollar.php
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

In all seriousness. Pakis have pegged their worthless rupee to Indian Rupee at 1: 2.1. This has created an artificial overpricing of their rupee. Time to play the FX market, anyone?

Same Harami link: https://www.forex.pk/currency-inr-to-pk ... -rupee.php
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

Indian to Paki rupee is around 2.3, in Pakistan nobody really Indian rupees and I hence pegged at 2.1
yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by yensoy »

Yes my favourite haramiweb also says PKR has crossed 180.

U-turn Khan delivered the 180 that was expected of him!!

https://hamariweb.com/finance/forex/usd-to-pkr.aspx
mody
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

Now onwards to double century!! Go 200 to a dollar.
Thakur_B
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

May the PKR continue to play like Sehwag,
Najunamar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Najunamar »

Schwag like meaning triple century also possible! AoA! May your words come true.
Thakur_B
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

At what point do people realise that PKR is done for and it goes into freefall, adding a zero every month to highest denomination currency notes to buy groceries?
SRajesh
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SRajesh »

^^^
Saar 3-6 months max!! if the present trend continues and/or TTP/TLP resume operations for establishing 'R-puidna'
MBS is not a dumb old style Saudi with lots petro-dollars looks like a canny operate given the way the $3 billion loan agreements
he expects tanking by the end of this financial year!!
Now only thing unsaid in those agreements is what happens to the 'bum' and 'barood'
Will that or they have already been hypothecated to RSA with a nod/nod and wink/wink from Sleepy Joe(wonder why?? either to prop against Eyeran or look at the Chini-maal first hand)
Hope that happens then Modiji can re unify J&K before 2024 and pull the rug from under all woke-shits!!
VinodTK
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by VinodTK »



Water, electricity shortage triggered protests, thousands march on the main roads in Gwadar | WION
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

A day will come soon when 72 pkr would be 1 kuffar inr. Take that you yindoo baniya….
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »


Water, electricity shortage triggered protests, thousands march on the main roads in Gwadar | WION
Led by a mullah... who was quick to proclaim that they were not protesting against China as China was a friend...
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Rupee's downward spiral continues unabated as it hits 177.89
KARACHI: Pakistani rupee continued to slide against the US dollar on Monday with a fresh decline of Rs0.18 owing to the constant supply-side pressure.

The local currency closed at Rs177.89 against the greenback in the interbank market surpassing Friday’s record low of Rs177.71 due to increased demand from the importers and a lack of sufficient supplies.
The rupee has maintained the downtrend for the past seven months. It has lost 16.82% (or Rs25.62) to date, compared to the 22-month high of Rs152.27 recorded on May 14.

With a fresh decline of 0.10%, the rupee has depreciated by 12.91% (or Rs20.35) since the start of the current fiscal year on July 1, 2021, data released by the central bank revealed.
Tanaji
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Tanaji »

We really need a sticky on the first page with a dynamically updated tracker showing PKR to dollar conversion
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Govt contracted $15.32bn foreign loans in FY21: report
The government contracted $15.32 billion worth of new foreign loans from multilateral institutions and commercial banks during the previous fiscal year (2020-21) — almost 47 per cent higher than $10.45bn a year earlier.
With these additional loan agreements, the incumbent government contracted a total of about $34.17bn in its first three years in power, according to the ‘Annual Report on Foreign Economic Assistance 2020-21’ released by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
With this, Pakistan’s external public debt stood at $85.6bn as of June 30, 2021
The report explained that a higher commitment during the last fiscal year was made “to mitigate the pressure on the current account deficit, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, enhance external debt servicing capacity and provide requisite financing to water sector development”.
When a country "borrows" money to beef up its foreign exchange reserves, it has monkeys managing the government's finance ministry. Suarly, aap ney ghabrana nahin hai.

Haram link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1663741/govt- ... y21-report
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

AoA!! The current USD to PKR buying exchange rate is 181.4 as per Pakistan Open Market.

Harami link: https://www.forex.pk/currency-usd-to-pk ... dollar.php
Thakur_B
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

May they hit Saeed Anwar soon. Followed by Sehwag and ultimately Brian Lara. Boiz are playing well !!
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Just change the notes Maulaners... instead of Rs 10 start the denomination from Rs 100.. problem solved!

Yawn - Fasaad Chaudhry - Pakistan will have no gas in a few years, says Fawad Chaudhry
Change in currency notes

The minister also told the presser that the State Bank of Pakistan had sought a six-year extension for the replacement of currency notes of Rs 10, 50, 100 and 1000, however, the cabinet had granted only a 12-month extension.

"Those who want to get currency notes changed should get it done in a year," he added.
PS: Someone should tell Baki ministers to change the name of baki currency from the SDRE 'Rupee' to 'Jinnahrs'... it will rhyme with ummah birathers Dinars and might prove to be good omen (Jinnah and Jinns and all that)...
CalvinH
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by CalvinH »

VinodTK wrote:

Water, electricity shortage triggered protests, thousands march on the main roads in Gwadar | WION
No jobs or water for the locals. Plus Chinese fishing trawlers taking away all the fish. Chinese may have recovered their investments (if any) from fishing alone..
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bharathp »

anupmisra wrote:Govt contracted $15.32bn foreign loans in FY21: report

[
The report explained that a higher commitment during the last fiscal year was made “to mitigate the pressure on the current account deficit, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, enhance external debt servicing capacity and provide requisite financing to water sector development”.
When a country "borrows" money to beef up its foreign exchange reserves, it has monkeys managing the government's finance ministry. Suarly, aap ney ghabrana nahin hai.

Haram link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1663741/govt- ... y21-report
so
they are taking loans to shore up their reserves
so that they can take more loans?

what inceptionesque sh33t is that?
anupmisra
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

bharathp wrote:they are taking loans to shore up their reserves so that they can take more loans? what inceptionesque sh33t is that?
It makes perfect sense in a weird paki sort of way. Remember, per their al kitab, every momeen is here on "borrowed" time. His life is a "collateral". Every momeen "owes" pbuh his life's "value" and the "returns" to his explosive "due" diligence is measured in a final "transactional act" called "free hoors". So borrowing useless paper money is just a "mirage".
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mort Walker »

The current linear devaluation of the PKR is happening at a linear rate of PKR = 4/month since May 2021. My prediction is that it will hit $1 USD = 200 PKR by beginning of June 2022 if the current “positive” economic outlook continues. If oil prices continue to increase and further mismanagement, then it may happen sooner.

If India heats up the border and forces TSP to spend more on defense, then see their internal economic and social situation deteriorate. Instead of raping river dolphins, they may resort to more donkeys.
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

With USD to INR at 76 and UP Elections coming, we do not have such a luxury at this time.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

anupmisra wrote:
bharathp wrote:they are taking loans to shore up their reserves so that they can take more loans? what inceptionesque sh33t is that?
It makes perfect sense in a weird paki sort of way. Remember, per their al kitab, every momeen is here on "borrowed" time. His life is a "collateral". Every momeen "owes" pbuh his life's "value" and the "returns" to his explosive "due" diligence is measured in a final "transactional act" called "free hoors". So borrowing useless paper money is just a "mirage".
Correct.. and the 'borrowing' is the thinking of the Kufr... to the momeen it is his rightful 'due'.

Interest is anyway Haraam. So the evil kufr is actually being very unjust on the poor pious Momeen by asking back the monies.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

Sinka-dinka-dink ! Tabdeeli oh tabdeeli ! PKR garbage sinks to Rs 181.20 per USD as per official exchange rate, so i assume it is much higher in open market and black market. Rs 200 is not impossible by end of Jan if baayz continue to play well !
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SBajwa »

vimal wrote:A day will come soon when 72 pkr would be 1 kuffar inr. Take that you yindoo baniya….
A pakistani politician says to American pakis that why are you worried about paki rupee going down? After all you will get more money for your dollars.
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Aapne ghabrana nahi hai
Thakur_B
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Thakur_B »

Ambar wrote:Sinka-dinka-dink ! Tabdeeli oh tabdeeli ! PKR garbage sinks to Rs 181.20 per USD as per official exchange rate, so i assume it is much higher in open market and black market. Rs 200 is not impossible by end of Jan if baayz continue to play well !
Won't have to wait till Jan end because there is nothing Pak government can do now to put brakes on this speeding car, and it's only gonna go downhill from here onwards.
Last edited by Thakur_B on 16 Dec 2021 11:11, edited 1 time in total.
bharathp
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by bharathp »

the increase in us fed rate hikes will make $$ more valuable. India faced this rate shock before and has been creating the shield of huge forex reserved - no such thinking from the donkey exporters.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by disha »

Still Mogambo is naa-khush. Unless Baki Rupee touches thoo-seventhy-thoo and more, mogambo will be naa-khush.
partha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by partha »

If you are worried that Paki economy may improve, fiqar naat!

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2334151/an ... c-problems
Another body set up to solve economic problems
Tarin to head Economic Executive Council with mandate to take corrective measures
The notified scope of the council suggests that it would do the work, which is in the domain of the constitutional forums – the National Economic Council (NEC) and other cabinet bodies like the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec), the Steering Committee on Foreign-Funded projects, the Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination Board, the Cabinet Committee on State-owned Enterprises and the National Price Monitoring Committee.

In addition, there are the Economic Advisery Council and the Economic Advisory Group that have representation of the private sector. The EEC seems to have little room for manoeuvring as the country’s economic policy is now defined under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
The EEC members are Finance Adviser Shaukat Tarin, Food Minister Fakhr Imam, Industries Minister Khusro Bakhtiar, Energy Minister Hammad Azhar, Planning Minister Asad Umar, Commerce Adviser Razak Dawood, Finance Secretary Hamid Yaqoob Sheikh and SBP Governor Dr Reza Baqir. All of them are already members of the ECC –the economic policy-making body of the federal cabinet.
The ministry states that the new council will also review the market structure of various important sectors of the economy and its problems to promote competition in the economy by correcting the market structure, discouraging cartelisation, price manipulations, margins and other market distortions.

But under the existing law, this is the job of the Competition Commission of Pakistan, which the EEC has apparently taken over.
Sources said that in the maiden EEC meeting, the topics of the exchange rate and the widening of the current account deficit came up for discussion. They added that in the next meeting a detailed discussion would take place.
8)
How come there is no council for implementing Geoeconomics strategy? I thought Geoeconomics was the hot topic. I haven't seen much about it in the media lately.
S_Madhukar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by S_Madhukar »

Well if they had any smarts they would not have been a separate country, embraced ji***** etc. after that it was always downhill and they try their best to drag us down with them… so it is all natural only law of physics gravity etc.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by anupmisra »

Former FBR chairman Shabbar Zaidi says Pakistan is 'bankrupt' and not a 'going concern'
Former chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Shabbar Zaidi on Thursday said that his speech, in which he concluded that Pakistan was bankrupt, was being "misreported" and only a three-minute portion of it was "cherry-picked".
A day earlier, during a wide-ranging speech on Pakistan's economic condition at Hamdard University, he said the country was not in a state of "going concern" — an accounting terminology referring to a business that is operating and making a profit.
In my view, the country is, at the moment, bankrupt and not a going concern.
In another tweet later on Thursday, the ex-FBR official said that Pakistan's total foreign debt stood at over $115 billion while its current account deficit was between $5 to $8bn.
Haram link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1664147/forme ... ng-concern
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Ambar »

Paki abbu turkey's lira sinks to 16 / 1 USD. It is time for PKR to show solidarity and sink another 20% by end of this month.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by saip »

Erdogan probably wants the Turkish Lira to go even lower so that he can compete with China in exports. Low lira translates to lower wages to higher exports or so Erdoganomics tell us. Meanwhile their central bank is contemplating on lowering the interest rates instead of raising to fight inflation. Economics is being turned on its head by Turkey.
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