Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[SRajesh]

And just seen an news clip:
Egypt devaluing currency by 50% to meet IMF terms
Wonder what this would mean to Toilet Paper
No wonder Pakistani are holding out on IMF terms
AoA if they do agree to IMF then it will be 1$=400 toilet sheets

[neeraj]

Waiting for a lifeline

The spectacle of desperate men and women thronging the shops for subsidised flour provides just one glimpse of the worsening level of privation. A father of six died in a stampede in Mirpurkhas recently while queuing for the commodity. The rising cost of living has pushed more people into destitution. It’s an extremely grim situation with no sign of improvement in the economic outlook. The worst is still to come. But our economic czar is busy showing a rosy picture.

In the midst of the serious financial crunch and spiralling inflation, a finance ministry ad in print and electronic media tries to assure us that the country is on the path to a remarkable economic recovery . It claims to have saved the country from default and stabilised the economy. One wonders if our finance minister is just in a state of denial or is it merely a game of playing with figures. It will be a grave mistake if the government believes it can regain its lost political capital by falsifying data.

Such claims are far from reality. Neither are we safe from a risk of default nor is there any sign of economic recovery. The biggest joke is the claim of currency stabilisation. It reflects Finance Minister Ishaq Dar’s obsession with keeping the value of the dollar artificially low. That has been a major reason for the stalemate in the negotiations with the IMF for the next tranche of the bailout package. The next round of talks with the Fund has already been delayed by more than two months.

The free float of the rupee has been a critical condition for the resumption of negotiations with the Fund, aside from some other measures including raising tax revenue and reducing subsidies. The government has been trying to avoid taking these tough but necessary steps for political reasons.

Key economic reform can no longer be put on the back burner.

Dar’s insistence on keeping the value of the dollar artificially low has created a very dangerous situation, encouraging the currency black market and strengthening the hawala system. The large gap between the official and open market rates has caused a huge fall in remittances sent through banking channels. The finance minister’s fixation with controlling the currency rate has cost the country dearly.

The deadlock in the talks with the lending agency and delay in the payment of the next tranche has also affected our borrowing from other multilateral agencies and the expected flow of funds from friendly countries, causing our foreign exchange reserves to fall to a dangerous level. But the finance minister has remained in a state of denial.

Dar has been under the illusion that the Fund could be made to come down to his terms . It has also been extremely difficult for the fledgling coalition administration facing a formidable opposition to increase the tax burden fuelling inflation. Indeed, this will increase hardship for the people. But the government has no option other than to swallow the bitter pill. Further delay in the IMF bailout package could be disastrous.

With the prospect of sovereign default staring us in the face, the prime minister seems to have finally realised the gravity of the situation, calling on the IMF for resumption of negotiations. But there is no indication that formal negotiations could be resumed without a firm commitment from the government to implement the conditionalities that have been agreed upon.

Some prior actions such as devaluation of the rupee and increase in the levy on petroleum products would also be required before the talks. There is no indication the IMF team would be coming to Islamabad in the next few days as announced by the prime minister. Instead, IMF officials met the finance minister on the sidelines of the recently concluded donor conference in Geneva. There has not been any indication of a breakthrough in the talks.

Addressing the conference where donors pledged nearly $10 billion in aid to help Pakistan rehabilitate the millions of flood victims and rebuild the infrastructure destroyed by the disaster, the prime minister asked the IMF for a pause in its demands for economic reforms before releasing more financial aid. He said Pakistan needed “breathing space” while the country deals with the effects of the devastating floods.

There may be a possibility of the lending agency easing some conditionalities in view of the economic losses caused by the climate-related disaster that affected one-third of the country last year, but there is no way the Fund would agree to postpone some key reforms to improve the country’s worsening fiscal situation. The huge fall in revenue in recent months makes it harder to put the key economic reforms on the back burner.

A resumption of the IMF programme is certainly not all that is needed to address Pakistan’s current economic troubles, but it is a crucial stepping stone to acquiring other much-needed sources of financing. It is not just the external debt, but mainly the massive internal debt that has brought the country close to bankruptcy. The major problem is that this nation of more than 220 million people has been living beyond its means for a very long time and borrowing money even to run the state.

It is certainly not for the first time the country is on the brink of financial collapse. We have many times in the past found ourselves in the proverbial ICU and been resuscitated, of course with some outside help. We are living in perpetual hope of being salvaged by our external benefactors. It may happen again, but that would not take us out of the woods completely.

As in the past, this time too we may be able to avoid the immediate threat of default with the support of some friendly countries. But our perennial economic problems will not go away with the lifelines thrown by lending agencies and friendly countries. The situation has gone beyond a patch-up job.

The failure to address fundamental structural problems will keep the country trapped in a perpetual financial crisis, presenting the biggest threat to our national security. Economic dependence also compromises our sovereignty. Instead of waiting for a lifeline to bail us out, we need to take tough reform measures before it is too late.

[chanakyaa]

And just seen an news clip:
Egypt devaluing currency by 50% to meet IMF terms
Wonder what this would mean to Toilet Paper
No wonder Pakistani are holding out on IMF terms
AoA if they do agree to IMF then it will be 1$=400 toilet sheets

OT...but relevant Egypt vows to cut military’s outsized role in economy under IMF bailout

Egypt has committed to reducing the military’s role in the economy as part of its $3bn IMF bailout package, as the Arab state grapples with a foreign currency crisis, a weakening pound and rising inflation.

The fund said the policy would cover all state-owned enterprises, including “military-owned companies” , in a rare acknowledgment by the IMF of how the army has expanded its footprint across Egypt’s economy since the former army chief seized power in a 2013 coup.

[Manish_P]

And just seen an news clip:
Egypt devaluing currency by 50% to meet IMF terms
Wonder what this would mean to Toilet Paper
No wonder Pakistani are holding out on IMF terms
AoA if they do agree to IMF then it will be 1$=400 toilet sheets

Bakistan is true free market economy.

Dollar selling at different prices in different markets.

Yawn - Rupee loses more against dollar

Despite promises of massive financial help for Pakistan, the rupee failed to put up any resistance and lost another 5 paise against the US dollar in the interbank market on Wednesday.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported the dollar price at Rs 227.93 compared to Rs 227.88 a day before.

Currency dealers said the dollar price provided by the SBP was not real. Banks are charging higher rates while the non-opening of letters of credit is still a serious problem.

The dollar rate was Rs 238 in the open market, but the exchange companies were mostly empty to provide greenbacks.

The grey market is selling dollars not less than Rs 270.

[SRajesh]

Siji
They should have appointed Arif Naqvi(of the Abraaj fame) as Chief Economic Advisor(at least would have been same same as Hanud/Baniya set up like Niti Ayog) along with Dar the Mule
Both would have hopefully milked IMF to hilt no!!

[VishnuS]

We should offer 9Billion for Pakistan vacating POK, Balochistan and their existing Nuke arsenal and assets

I'd say let's throw $100B....

When Pak defaults, the whole world will offer $100B (at least that's what I am expecting)to de nuclearise Pakistan just like Ukraine was denuclearised in 1994. TBH, that $100B will break Pakistan even faster... I hope it doesn't happen before 2027

[Dilbu]

UAE agrees to rollover $2bn loan, give additional $1bn

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed to roll over an existing loan of $2 billion and give an additional loan of $1bn to Pakistan, a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office said on Thursday.

The statement was issued after a meeting between UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Abu Dhabi. The premier is on a two-day visit to strengthen economic, trade and investment ties with the country.

[neeraj]

Spending $10 billion - Got to hand it to them. Not a single cent is received but advise given on how to spend already.

[Vips]

The amount pledged in Geneva is 90% loans which will be disbursed directly (if at all) over the next 3 years on monitored projects to Porkistan. No direct handover of hard cash is going to happen.

[SidSoma]

Spending $10 billion - Got to hand it to them. Not a single cent is received but advise given on how to spend already.

Got to give it to the Pakis.

They are able to generate a Narrative, mobilise the required operatives to support it and actually generate funds. Its amazing how they did the same against kashmir and India. They have built a complete ecosystem around and it can be seen in all its glory.

I am in Awe.

[Dilbu]

IMF wants up to Rs7.50/unit power tariff raise

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reportedly sought an increase in electricity tariff up to 7.50 rupees per unit across the board, to recover over Rs 700 billion from consumers as previous commitments made by the government were not met, well informed sources told Business Recorder.

An increase of Rs 7.91 per unit was agreed with the Fund and World Bank for last fiscal year but it was only partially implemented till July 1, 2022. IMF had also been assured that FPA and QTAs will be passed on to the consumers on time but their implementation had been delayed.

The sources said, IMF had been assured that recovery will be 93.83 percent, but in fact it remained less than 90 percent (FY-22 at 90.43 percent). Transmission and Distribution losses were greater than 17 percent (FY-22 at 22.16 percent) against the commitment of 15.83 percent, made with the IMF and World Bank.

[partha]

Spending $10 billion - Got to hand it to them. Not a single cent is received but advise given on how to spend already.

[ritesh]

Spending $10 billion - Got to hand it to them. Not a single cent is received but advise given on how to spend already.

Spending other people's monies is what they excel at... This tamasha would continue untill it's 3.5 father's feels it provides them with a nuisance value and lever to keep us occupied.

Alas, Modi has indeed defeated those plans and has got us decoupled of sort with what happens on Western front. Now all the action will concentrate on eastern front and Chyna would be the target.

[vimal]

UAE agrees to rollover $2bn loan, give additional $1bn

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed to roll over an existing loan of $2 billion and give an additional loan of $1bn to Pakistan, a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office said on Thursday.

This is all just creative accounting. Read the report and you will find that it’s the same money changing hands over and over. UAE is lending the same 1 billion they got from Pakis in Dec 2022.

The UAE’s rollover of the loan comes as Pakistan faces a severe cash crunch, with foreign exchange reserves depleting to an eight-year of $5.576bn during the week that ended on Dec 30, 2022. This amounts to three weeks of imports. Later, media reports said the reserves fell further to $4.5bn after loan repayments to two UAE banks.

[neeraj]

They do have about 3.8 billion worth of gold reserve. Selling that will be last straw.

[mody]

The good part in all this is that due to the crisis, Pakjab will corner most of the resources as it always does, followed by some scraps going to Sindh. Balochistan, KP and PoK, GB will be left to fend for themselves. If the circus continuous for a few more months, The Taliban will virtually take over KP. Balochistan, PoK and GB will suffer the maximum damage and the separatist forces in these provinces will get strengthened further.

Taking over all of or part of Balistan, should definitely be on our radar.

[Dilbu]

PKR declines in all the five sessions

KARACHI: The rupee depreciated in all 5 sessions against the US dollar during the previous week, falling 0.44% to settle at 228.15 in the inter-bank market. A drastic fall in foreign exchange was also reported on Thursday, with State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves hitting the $4.3-billion mark after debt repayment of over $1.2 billion.

[vimal]

Ukraine and Covid need to continue indefinitely

[Cyrano]

From the revelations happening now with Mayaram's FIR (bureaucrat under PC) it seems to me that there was a huge scam going on in Pakistan for a very long time. It reached its zenith under UPA rule.

"De la rue Giori" is a currency printing paper supply company in uk. UPA govt under PC gives it a huge contract at a very high price quote because they claim their paper has a patented security thread, and this tech will be exclusively uses for India. (Both the patent and exclusivity turn out nonexistent later, but at least the thread was there, embedded in the special paper)

Pakistan also buys paper from De la rue company, it seems 3x needed for its actual currency production.

PC auctions off worn out printing dies (not dyes) as scrap (need to check if they were dies for printing 500 & 1000₹ notes, which will be clinching evidence) which are bought by a company which then resells them to Pakistan.

So with paper and the dies Pak starts running it's govt currency printing pressin 3 shifts to produce huge quantities of Indian currency of such a high quality that it's indistinguishable from genuine currency.

This free money is used for terrorist financing but I think that's a side benefit. A lot more was used for "bilateral trade" to keep the economy going for free.

Curious fact: the De la Rue Giori company CEO Roberto Giori (sounds a bit Italian )was onboard IC 814 of the 1999 Kandahar hijacking...

If you remember the demonetised 500 & 1000₹ notes were fairly similar in colour schemes etc this probably made it a lot easier for Pak to print both.

It's not unimaginable that those who made this possible even got a cut from the Pakistani establishment itself, deposited regularly in some foreign account, which would then find its way back into India through hawala channels and finance these parties and their businesses.

The strangulation of this scam was done by Modi govt at multiple levels besides demonetisation.

I suspect a lot more is yet to be discovered of this dark and traitorous web

[Atmavik]

Ukraine and Covid need to continue indefinitely

Covid actually helped the paki economy, at least initially


Now they have Dar o Nomics + jumbo cabinet with each one wanting a larger share of the shrinking pie , will be fun few years for their economy

[chetak]

From the revelations happening now with Mayaram's FIR (bureaucrat under PC) it seems to me that there was a huge scam going on in Pakistan for a very long time. It reached its zenith under UPA rule.

"De la rue Giori" is a currency printing paper supply company in uk. UPA govt under PC gives it a huge contract at a very high price quote because they claim their paper has a patented security thread, and this tech will be exclusively uses for India. (Both the patent and exclusivity turn out nonexistent later, but at least the thread was there, embedded in the special paper)

Pakistan also buys paper from De la rue company, it seems 3x needed for its actual currency production.

PC auctions off worn out printing dies (not dyes) as scrap (need to check if they were dies for printing 500 & 1000₹ notes, which will be clinching evidence) which are bought by a company which then resells them to Pakistan.

So with paper and the dies Pak starts running it's govt currency printing pressin 3 shifts to produce huge quantities of Indian currency of such a high quality that it's indistinguishable from genuine currency.

This free money is used for terrorist financing but I think that's a side benefit. A lot more was used for "bilateral trade" to keep the economy going for free.

Curious fact: the De la Rue Giori company CEO Roberto Giori (sounds a bit Italian )was onboard IC 814 of the 1999 Kandahar hijacking...

If you remember the demonetised 500 & 1000₹ notes were fairly similar in colour schemes etc this probably made it a lot easier for Pak to print both.

It's not unimaginable that those who made this possible even got a cut from the Pakistani establishment itself, deposited regularly in some foreign account, which would then find its way back into India through hawala channels and finance these parties and their businesses.

The strangulation of this scam was done by Modi govt at multiple levels besides demonetisation.

I suspect a lot more is yet to be discovered of this dark and traitorous web

https://www.amazon.in/Who-painted-money ... hdGY&psc=1



sree iyer's book : Who painted my future bright

A ship carrying 2 containers, each containing Rs.5000 crores in 500- and 1000-rupee notes, docks in the dark of night at Kochi. The money is quickly distributed to members of a minority community using a network of 100 Chartered accountants. The bulk of the money finds its way back into fake firms, shell corporations, and charities with the sole aim of destabilizing the country. A DIABOLICAL PLAN BY THE FREEDOM PARTY TO WEAKEN INDIA Greedy politicians of the Freedom Party want to ensure that the opposition can never come to power. Pander to the largest minority, enrich them beyond their expectations and ensure they will be with the party. To this end, a plan is hatched to print high denomination money and try and increase the velocity of money, thereby creating the illusion of growth. A compromised Finance Minister is forced to buy paper from the same sources as India’s rival Pakistan. Their intelligence wing gets hold of the security threads being used in Indian notes through honey trapping and comes up with notes that are almost as good as the real ones. The fake money brought in slowly starts moving around the country, driving up inflation and real estate prices, mixing with good notes. Because of a series of scams, the government gets voted out and a single party (People’s Voice) gets an absolute majority. The new party responds to a terrorist attack with a surgical strike deep in the enemy territory. Pakistan decides to retaliate by flooding India with fake currency, by tripling its fake currency production. India responds by demonetizing the 500- and 1000-rupee notes and printing new notes of a different size. But despite the best attempts, a porous border with Nepal and Bangladesh results in a significant amount of the fake currency entering Indian banks. When the notes were tallied, instead of 87% of printed notes coming back to the Reserve Bank, 113% comes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCUP7xCw7KU


R Rajagopalan I De La Rue - KPK, PC next? I New US law bad for Tyrants watch from 9:20 onwards but don't miss this entire video, it's a bombshell about a new US law that will have a worldwide effect

[vijayk]

^^ PC is just a conduit. Everything is controlled by confidant of $ONIA who is Ahmed Patel.

Everything is controlled from his end. My BIL worked for mining companies in Assam. Every ton of iron ore/Coal mined carries a premium which has to be paid to Ahmed Patel designated broker.

Judicial appointments, Media appointments all had to go thru Ahmed Patel. Even Aaaj Tak won't hire anyone without his approval. Unbelievable power for a Jihadi. He is the one who finalized Ansari as VP.

[Manish_P]

^ Didn't A Patel die (COVID IIRC) ?

Is the son as much into the Company business as his father?

[Dilbu]

Finance: The deepening forex crisis

Pakistan remained in the grip of the foreign exchange crisis in 2022. Now, at the beginning of 2023, the situation has deepened further.

On January 6, forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) plunged to $4.343 billion, enough to cover just three weeks of imports, after the country repaid $1bn commercial loans of two UAE-based banks. Despite such a massive decline in the forex reserves, the rupee remained “stable” in the interbank market. It closed at 228.15 to a US dollar on January 13, unchanged from January 12’s closing of 228.14 per dollar — thanks to the SBP’s policy of keeping the local unit in the “oxygen tent”.

At the end of January 2022, the SBP had roughly $16.608bn forex reserves that kept falling for most of the year, primarily due to heavy external debt servicing and import financing.

‘Billions of dollars’ may, however, start coming in now from the international financial institutions and friendly countries Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE after the much-awaited release of the last withheld tranche of an ongoing $6bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan. The government may also seek another loan from the IMF and request the Fund to disburse the first tranche of it along with the withheld one.

How many billions of dollars will exactly flow in 2023?

Very difficult to tell in advance. We need to keep counting as part of the expected funding may arrive in a few weeks or months, but part of it is due in three to five years. The post-flood support pledges from global financial institutions and countries exceed $10bn against post-flood requirements of $16.3bn. But 90 per cent of these pledges are in the form of loans, and only 10pc will come as aid.

Separately, Saudi Arabia has shown a willingness to place another $2bn with the SBP taking the total of its forex deposits with the SBP to $5bn. In addition, the Kingdom has also signalled to make medium to long-term investments worth $10bn in Pakistan, mainly in its petroleum sector.

The UAE is expected to provide $3bn financial help, including the rollover of its $2bn forex deposits with the SBP. Saudi Arabia has also decided to extend $1bn oil on deferred payment. And China is likely to pump in close to $9bn into Pakistan’s economy through the rollover of sovereign loans offered earlier, refinancing Chinese commercial bank loans to Islamabad and enlargement of the bilateral currency swaps. The government is also expediting the sale of two LNG plants to Qatar to raise an estimated $1.5bn.

Whereas the lined-up forex inflows will keep coming at varying pace year after year, the bulk will only enlarge Pakistan’s outstanding external debts and increase its yearly debt servicing requirements. This means that the country may find itself trapped in foreign debts within a few years if it fails to increase its exports of goods and services in a big way, reverse the declining trend in remittances and create an enabling environment for foreign investors.

[Neela]

Not an expert on finance or economy. I could be wrong on my views.
Just thinking about the options Pakis have. They have set below as priority
1. Debt servicing
2. Petrol and Energy imports
3. Raw materials for textiles industry, which brings in foreign exchange after finished goods are exported.

With Debt servicing, you have meet repayment timelines or creditwortiness worsens - making future loans more expensive
With Petrol and Energy imports - you have some options - like making energy usage priority for industries.
Raw materials are needed for the industries to go on.

But If Letters of Credit arent given even for $5K, you cant take any machinery or cotton from the ports to the factories. This means you are choking the only potential source of income and any income tax that can be levied. The first 2 dont generate revenue at all.

This seems like a downward spiral.

[yensoy]

This is the Paki game.

Pak fauj provides cover for the autocrats in UAE, Saudi. They provide a professional security service, with no ideology or political affiliation and only serve those already in power.

In turn, these autocrats hand periodic payments to Pakistan in the form of aid, grants, deposits and deferred oil payment facilities.

It is the ordinary people of Pakistan who actually fund the bulk of Pak fauj - directly and indirectly. Directly, obviously, they military is paid by the exchequer. Indirectly, the military pays itself by abrogating monopoly power on key industries, taking over land at will and redirecting foreign aid.

Pak fauj's value proposition to the autocrats is that they pay peanuts for a foolproof security apparatus which is largely funded by someone else (the poor paki awaam). What is not to like here? Said autocrats will continue to fund this entity till eternity because of the backing it gives them. As for the paki awaam, they see photos of their generals in Dubai or Riyadh followed by announcements of money being disbursed, and they feel eternally grateful to their oppressors, the generals.

This is why Pak will never fail. Pak fauj has a time-tested formula in the gulf and as long as they keep their demands within reason they will continue to draw funds needed to keep them alive.

[Maria]

Loha garam hai, hathodi abhi marna chahiye

[Prasad]

The entire gelf doesn't have a nook. These grass-eaters do. It works for everyone that the starving rabid dog guards the treasury and kept in semi-living state by throwing a few scraps now. Just to keep their options open against the shias in the east and as a wink-wink nudge-nudge with the oiros and khan. Which is why even khan lets them be. Who knows how useful they might be against the chin or even against us in the future. Doesn't amount to dust beneath their feet to keep the pot boiling for decades. The rabid greens are kept honest by the greener than green rabble rousers and the khakis justify themselves by building up the yyy bogey. Win-win for everyone.

Pushing these idiots out of public eye has been the best thing we've done in the past 8 years. Keep them there, taqqiyah notwithstanding.

[Aldonkar]

From the revelations happening now with Mayaram's FIR (bureaucrat under PC) it seems to me that there was a huge scam going on in Pakistan for a very long time. It reached its zenith under UPA rule.

"De la rue Giori" is a currency printing paper supply company in uk. UPA govt under PC gives it a huge contract at a very high price quote because they claim their paper has a patented security thread, and this tech will be exclusively uses for India. (Both the patent and exclusivity turn out nonexistent later, but at least the thread was there, embedded in the special paper)

Pakistan also buys paper from De la rue company, it seems 3x needed for its actual currency production.

PC auctions off worn out printing dies (not dyes) as scrap (need to check if they were dies for printing 500 & 1000₹ notes, which will be clinching evidence) which are bought by a company which then resells them to Pakistan.

So with paper and the dies Pak starts running it's govt currency printing pressin 3 shifts to produce huge quantities of Indian currency of such a high quality that it's indistinguishable from genuine currency.

This free money is used for terrorist financing but I think that's a side benefit. A lot more was used for "bilateral trade" to keep the economy going for free.

Curious fact: the De la Rue Giori company CEO Roberto Giori (sounds a bit Italian )was onboard IC 814 of the 1999 Kandahar hijacking...

If you remember the demonetised 500 & 1000₹ notes were fairly similar in colour schemes etc this probably made it a lot easier for Pak to print both.

It's not unimaginable that those who made this possible even got a cut from the Pakistani establishment itself, deposited regularly in some foreign account, which would then find its way back into India through hawala channels and finance these parties and their businesses.

The strangulation of this scam was done by Modi govt at multiple levels besides demonetisation.

I suspect a lot more is yet to be discovered of this dark and traitorous web

Just some small corrections. "Thomas De La Rue & Sons" is a British firm that had a monopoly on printing British currency notes. It was founded by Thomas de la Rue who was from the Channel Islands, hence the French sounding name. They obviously used their reputation to get business in the former British colonies.

Some decades ago they established a subsidiary called De La Rue Giori" in Switzerland which operated in Switzerland only. Giori can be a Swiss name but has Italian origins.

In the Panama papers it was revealed that De La Rue were paying an individual in Delhi called Somendra Khosla a bribe of 15% to obtain contracts from 2002 to 2010.

Circa 2014 there was a scandal when it was exposed in the UK press that there was a QA failure at the banknote printing press in Debden, Hampshire (England) where De La Rue were printing banknotes for "an important foreign country". That country severed all ties with DLR and as a result the share price of DLR fell off a cliff. Subsequently the British Goverment took away the job of printing British passports from DLR as well, but I believe that they still print the banknotes. Note that most British banknotes are not paper based anymore.

It was shortly after the 214 sandal that the indian Gov (ie Modi) announced demonetisation.

[Yogi_G]

Whatever is left of the KSE crashes -> Yawn link -> https://www.dawn.com/news/1732097/kse-1 ... imf-review

Dalal Securities CEO Siddique Dalal also attributed the plunge to political uncertainty. “If the National Assembly is also dissolved and a caretaker government is installed, who will negotiate with the IMF? The IMF has reportedly reiterated its conditions again today to increase electricity and gas tariffs, hike the petroleum levy and impose additional taxes.

RoP Dalal - run by me that there are no c@ste affiliations in RoP.

[vijayk]

^ Didn't A Patel die (COVID IIRC) ?

Is the son as much into the Company business as his father?

yes.
I was referring to UPA era if it wasn't clear

[KL Dubey]

^ Didn't A Patel die (COVID IIRC) ?

Is the son as much into the Company business as his father?

Yes, its incredible the number of posters on BRF who think Ahmed is still alive.

Yes, in true mafia style Ahmed did offer up his spawn Faisal before croaking. However, the latter does not have a good equation with the INC leadership and still does not have any party job as far I can see from media news.

[Cyrano]

Thanks Aldonkar ji.
Where is investigative journalism these days? It's all left to YT channels which MSM can quickly accuse of being conspiration theorists ?!

[Deans]

This is the Paki game.

Pak fauj provides cover for the autocrats in UAE, Saudi. They provide a professional security service, with no ideology or political affiliation and only serve those already in power.
In turn, these autocrats hand periodic payments to Pakistan in the form of aid, grants, deposits and deferred oil payment facilities.

This is why Pak will never fail. Pak fauj has a time-tested formula in the gulf and as long as they keep their demands within reason they will continue to draw funds needed to keep them alive.

I think there is a change in recent years, which has affected this formula.

Saudi, UAE and the GCC have closer relations with Indian than with Pak. Compare any criteria - Volume of trade, no of expat workers (and the change), FDI, even statements against India. If they help Pak it won't be at India's expense. The Indian economy cannot be ignored.
There is a realization that Pak fundamentalism (the army is more jihadi now than earlier) will disturb their country, where the rulers are trying to
create more moderate societies (e.g. MBS giving women more rights).

GCC states cannot do charity any more. India offers them opportunities for profitable trade and investment. If India was offered loans on the same terms as Pak, it wouldn't accept, as we get better terms from international lenders. Indian expats are increasingly replacing higher cost white people,
while Pak labor can be replaced by machines, or lower paid (or less Islamist) workers from B'desh, Afghanistan or Sudan.

[Manish_P]

Daronomics 786

[Dilbu]

There goes sooth asian echaandee.
Pakistan's economy South Asia's weakest, World Bank report says amid crisis

The World Bank forecast Pakistan’s economic growth to slow further to two percent during the current year. This will mark a drop of two percentage points from its June 2022 estimates, according to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.

“This pace reflects still robust growth in India, Maldives, and Nepal, offsetting the effects of the floods in Pakistan and the economic and political crises in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The deteriorating global environment, however, will weigh on investment in the region,” the report said pointing to a “sharp, long-lasting slowdown” with the global growth expected at 1.7 per cent this year.

The report, issued by a flagship publication of the World Bank Group, said that Pakistan’s economic output was not only declining itself but also bringing down the regional growth rate as well. Forecasting Pakistan's GDP growth rate to improve to 3.2 per cent in 2024, the report said, “Policy uncertainty further complicates the economic outlook” of Pakistan.

[yensoy]

I think there is a change in recent years, which has affected this formula.

Saudi, UAE and the GCC have closer relations with Indian than with Pak. Compare any criteria - Volume of trade, no of expat workers (and the change), FDI, even statements against India. If they help Pak it won't be at India's expense. The Indian economy cannot be ignored.
There is a realization that Pak fundamentalism (the army is more jihadi now than earlier) will disturb their country, where the rulers are trying to
create more moderate societies (e.g. MBS giving women more rights).

GCC states cannot do charity any more. India offers them opportunities for profitable trade and investment. If India was offered loans on the same terms as Pak, it wouldn't accept, as we get better terms from international lenders. Indian expats are increasingly replacing higher cost white people,
while Pak labor can be replaced by machines, or lower paid (or less Islamist) workers from B'desh, Afghanistan or Sudan.

Ah we need to distinguish the national interest from the personal interest of the rulers (of gulf countries) here. Their personal interest dictates that they need a loyal and apolitical security service which is outside the purview of any other power center in their country. They already have their own domestic security establishment, but if there was a coup or another contender to the throne, that establishment might get divided or might switch loyalties. So they need someone from outside, their own mercenary or bodyguard. Pak fauj provides exactly that.

This has nothing to do with India for India is not competing to render this service. This also may not annoy India - a few billion dollars thrown at Pak is hardly going to matter to us, even Unkil gave them quite a bit of military aid recently. View it purely as a commercial deal. In fact, in some calculus it may help us to have stable rulers in the gulf region.

Where Pak fauj excels is that it is able to provide 2.5 billion dollars of "protection" for only 1 billion payment - because pak awaam is subsidizing the rest of it.

Gulf sultan sleeps well because he knows he has his bodyguard by the ba!!s.

[vimal]

^^ Nothing keeps gulf sultans more awake than a fundamentalist force that they cannot control. They will be history if an Ayotollah manages to rise in their country. Current stability is a delicate balance between the royals and mullahs where mullahs keep the plebs under control using Sharia, while royals live their lives in whatever they way they want. Paki fundamentalism is a serious threat to the gulf royalty, it takes just one crazed guard to eliminate any royalty and throw a country into chaos. Things are not as green as they look from outside.

[hgupta]

Why don’t the rulers diminish the powers of mullahs by taking away their speakerphones?

[V_Raman]

If pak fundamentalism causes gulf instability - karma it is i would say...