Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

VipinM · Post by **VipinM** » 15 Apr 2022 17:24

mody wrote: June onwards, they have no funds to pay salaries."

This should become the new norm in Pakistan

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 15 Apr 2022 21:31

Eat grass make bum model of development!

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 15 Apr 2022 22:06

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=htt ... AdAAAAABAD

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 15 Apr 2022 22:45

Shiv's post above holds some clear warnings for India, from the possible fallout in Pakistan. One thing that should concern us is the bureaucracy falling apart. Despite the fact that it is PA that holds the power, it is the bureaucracy that mediates the PA's begging and prostitution stints for the US and China. When reports of their foreign missions being unable to pay salaries are becoming public, the situation is so dire that there may not be any means of 'protection' between the PA and foreign government agencies. Coupled with that their inability to enact necessary reforms, get off the FATF list, get continued IMF loans, break out of the Chinese debt trap, means there will be large scale desertion from their civil bureaucracy (get out while you still can syndrome). That means, over time, Pakistan becomes treated Iike a backward African dictatorship that does not get the first choice of aid. If that continues for 25 years or so (effectively 1 generation), we can expect either a Chinese colony or a huge refugee influx as a result of civil war or ethnic divides.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 16 Apr 2022 11:01

Double digit increase is so passe in superpower Bakistan...

Well played, Kaptaan... left removing the pin from the grenade to the last moment.

Yawn - First test for new govt as Ogra proposes massive oil price hike

Days after the exit of the PTI government, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) on Thursday suggested an unprecedented increase of up to Rs 120 per litre (over 83 per cent) in the prices of petroleum products with effect from April 16 to recover full imported cost, exchange rate loss and maximum tax rates.

Highly placed sources in Ogra and the Petroleum Division confirmed that the regulator had presented two options to the government for price increase — the highest-ever in both cases — on the next fortnightly review due on Friday (today).

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif must decide whether or not to lift a four-month price freeze (until June 30) announced by his predecessor, Imran Khan, on February 28.

Informed sources, however, told Dawn that the price freeze would continue for the time being.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Apr 2022 13:27

Far more easier solution is to supply Petrol to key cities for H&D purposes and keep most of Abduls with no supply.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 16 Apr 2022 13:55

Wanting to pass the grenade on ...

PM Shehbaz rejects proposal for increase in petroleum prices

Speaking at an Iftar dinner for the new government's coalition partners, Shehbaz said: "As you know, the prices of petroleum products are revised every 15 days. They had [proposed] an increase of Rs 21 and Rs 50 per litre."

He went on to say that the people of the country would "curse" the new government if such a "mountain of inflation" was unleashed on them.

Can't he simply cut a black goat to ward off the curses hain

Radio Pakistan also reported the premier as saying that the government would bear the burden of an increase in prices instead of shifting it onto the masses.

What does this mean exactly?

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 16 Apr 2022 15:56

^^
They will print more rupees.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Apr 2022 16:22

Anoop wrote:Shiv's post above holds some clear warnings for India, from the possible fallout in Pakistan. One thing that should concern us is the bureaucracy falling apart. Despite the fact that it is PA that holds the power, it is the bureaucracy that mediates the PA's begging and prostitution stints for the US and China. When reports of their foreign missions being unable to pay salaries are becoming public, the situation is so dire that there may not be any means of 'protection' between the PA and foreign government agencies. Coupled with that their inability to enact necessary reforms, get off the FATF list, get continued IMF loans, break out of the Chinese debt trap, means there will be large scale desertion from their civil bureaucracy (get out while you still can syndrome). That means, over time, Pakistan becomes treated Iike a backward African dictatorship that does not get the first choice of aid. If that continues for 25 years or so (effectively 1 generation), we can expect either a Chinese colony or a huge refugee influx as a result of civil war or ethnic divides.

Why would that be India's problem., ???

India has made its policy clear .

Give back POK . Stop Terrorism. Then we can talk and then may be trade.

This must not change , there is no half way around this. Absolutely not.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 16 Apr 2022 21:06

^ Losing critical border states to anarchists/opportunists etc will put unwanted pressure on India.

Very critical time for us to ensure that there are no gaps & chinks (pun unintended) in our borders, both geographical and mental.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 16 Apr 2022 23:23

If Pakistan fails and goes the way of Sudan (and this is a big if - it’s 4 fathers are not going to allow that to happen, hech check out the Pak threads on this forum predicting the same thing they are more than 10 year old), it will boil down to a simple question of whether we are prepared to fire on the masses of unarmed Abduls and Ayeshas and Abus and Ammis along with 25 Umars that will try to cross the LoC. No way should they be allowed to enter, but it will depend on the government in power at the time.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Apr 2022 03:32

Tanaji wrote:If Pakistan fails and goes the way of Sudan (and this is a big if - it’s 4 fathers are not going to allow that to happen, hech check out the Pak threads on this forum predicting the same thing they are more than 10 year old), it will boil down to a simple question of whether we are prepared to fire on the masses of unarmed Abduls and Ayeshas and Abus and Ammis along with 25 Umars that will try to cross the LoC. No way should they be allowed to enter, but it will depend on the government in power at the time.

No GOI will fire on them. Not this one, not any one. They will start trickling in by the thousands, then lakhs, then crores and not a damn thing will be done to stem the torrent.

Every opposition party... ALL of them... will be waiting with open arms, fake Aadhar Cards, forged Voter-ID templates to welcome the tide. They know (after all) that a drastic demographic change, achieved by a mass influx of Pakis, is the ONLY way they can ever hope to displace BJP sarkar in the foreseeable future. Only Pakis will vote for them in the numbers they need, so they will import the Pakis in unlimited quantities and ensure that they are able to vote, collect rations, and avail of every benefit.

The demographics of opposition-ruled states will change so rapidly that huge regions will start to become unrecognizable within months.

Modi sarkar will be paralysed by indecision. What to do? Get in on the "sabka saath" game by trying (hopelessly) to win over some of the Paki influx votes for BJP? Or apply the law, sparking a deafening chorus of condemnation, activism, and worse (from NGOs, media, opposition parties, foreign entities?)

Which way do you think they will go? I know what my guess is. Look at how things went with CAA, "Farmers" Protests, Bengal violence and in many other cases for a realistic indication.

Ultimately, one particular community will have 1st rights on India's resources, total primacy in its political structure, and absolute veto power over its policies... whether its members were born on this side or that side of the LOC/IB. Akhand Bharat will be a reality, but not in the sense that any Hindu envisioned.

This is not a fantasy. This is coming. We cheerfully talk about "PKMKB", "breaking Pakistan into pieces", "Pakistan's economy failing" and all that as if it's an effing cricket match. What do you think happens in the real world after the Pakistani state's last wicket falls?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 17 Apr 2022 03:54

Bakis won't fall apart, atleast not in our lifetime. Despite everything they still have their half a dozen daddies who see value in keeping Pakistan afloat. If they disintegrate then it will be through a global chaos and turmoil, similar to what happened in the first 50 yrs of the 20th century where every country was in some major turmoil. Will India be an island of peace and harmony in such a unstable world ? I don't think so. So if and when Pakistan breaks up, then we will have some serious internal problems of our own, and Rudradevji is right that no government (who knows if BJP or INC will even be around by then) will have the resource nor foresight to stop the pakistani inflow.

What may happen in our time though is this - if Pakistan does not get its act together and if India continues to add a trillion to its GDP every 2 or 3 yrs then many Pakis will begin trickling in like the beedis. This already happens and we know that there are thousands of illegal pakis in India but we will see an acceleration of this migration if their economic situation worsens. For their upper middle class and the wealthy there's always a European or US or Canada to escape to but for their poor and lower middleclass India is the only viable option.

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 17 Apr 2022 09:12

There are some structural reasons to fear mass Pakistani migration to India. Their deteriorating soil fertility and water scarcity, combined with increasing population, will sooner or later lead to famines. Internal migration to other states are a non starter, due to the even worse conditions there.. Their most populous provinces,which will feel the pressure the most, have long borders with India. There is decreasing appetite for Western countries to step in and save Pakistan. We can hope that they will at least keep it on life support, but with increasing population, the cost of life support also increases, with decreasing benefits.

It goes without saying that India simply cannot handle a refugee influx. That doesn't mean that it won't be attempted.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 17 Apr 2022 11:06

Last night in Brussels , as usual Bakis aam workers running around like headless chicken on the tube. I am all masked up and hopefully well dressed . Yet they catch hold off me asking Urdu Urdu ?? to know which tube to take. I wave my hand and off they go surprised… and while leaving one speaks I was sure he would have spoken Urdu…

Now these masses on our border I can only shudder… maybe a Rwanda plan like the Britshits are about to follow , although numbers are too high to be shipped off!

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 17 Apr 2022 12:29

Rudradev wrote:...Akhand Bharat will be a reality, but not in the sense that any Hindu envisioned.
...
This is not a fantasy. This is coming. We cheerfully talk about "PKMKB", "breaking Pakistan into pieces", "Pakistan's economy failing" and all that as if it's an effing cricket match. What do you think happens in the real world after the Pakistani state's last wicket falls?

A post with a much needed reality check...

RCase · Post by **RCase** » 19 Apr 2022 03:36

Rudradev wrote:...Akhand Bharat will be a reality, but not in the sense that any Hindu envisioned.
...
This is not a fantasy. This is coming. We cheerfully talk about "PKMKB", "breaking Pakistan into pieces", "Pakistan's economy failing" and all that as if it's an effing cricket match. What do you think happens in the real world after the Pakistani state's last wicket falls?

On a lighter note...

We will get to hear 'Inshallah, Boys played well"!

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Apr 2022 11:27

Country braces for worst diesel shortage

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been warned by economists and industry experts that the country would face the worst shortage of diesel next month amid the harvesting season as its stocks are fast plummeting.

Sources told The Express Tribune that the experts had urged Premier Shahbaz to increase oil prices in order to avoid the swelling price differential claims that accumulated to around Rs60 billion in only one month of April 2022.

The Pakistan State Oil (PSO) was the country’s largest oil exporter. Earlier, it had made an attempt to import diesel by floating a tender but no trader participated.

Now, the PSO had arranged one diesel cargo at the highest premium rate of $13 due to non-availability of diesel in the global market following Russia and Ukraine war.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 20 Apr 2022 11:55

We have overcapacity at our refineries. If Bakistan goes to Arap my baap (Ramadan etc) something could be arranged.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Apr 2022 12:25

S_Madhukar wrote:Last night in Brussels , as usual Bakis aam workers running around like headless chicken on the tube. I am all masked up and hopefully well dressed . Yet they catch hold off me asking Urdu Urdu ?? to know which tube to take. I wave my hand and off they go surprised… and while leaving one speaks I was sure he would have spoken Urdu…

Same experience at Dubai Airport !

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Apr 2022 12:27

Dilbu wrote:Country braces for worst diesel shortage

Shrewd strategy by Shahbaz. Instead of increasing prices 80% he will say that he won't increase price, then blame Imran for lack of any fuel to supply.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Apr 2022 13:04

Cant we bargain admission of Balakot sucess and F16 loss. Bajwa can slap I'm the dim and make it look as if I'm the dim saved PA reputation in 2019

mody · Post by **mody** » 20 Apr 2022 17:12

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/co ... b4c5b50ab7

Chinese eyeing Paki agriculture sector as part of CPEC as well.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Apr 2022 17:28

mody wrote:https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/co ... b4c5b50ab7

Chinese eyeing Paki agriculture sector as part of CPEC as well.

Will Pakis get the Organic fertilizer treatment like the Sri Lankans did?

athulya · Post by **athulya** » 20 Apr 2022 17:50

Mifatah Ismal , the finance minister is flying tonite to USoA to meet IMF officials and get some moolah.
Thereafter as per chatter he will go to london to meet Nawaaz and IssaqDar. Bilwal Bhutto of PPP is already in london.
So Uncle Sam is going to partially rescue them , China/Saudi will chip in too

After the removal of his name from the exit control list, the finance minister is set to leave for Washington tonight to participate in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the stalled seventh review of the $6 billion loan program.

haraam link
https://t.co/sQihXXqJqi

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 20 Apr 2022 18:48

All the 4 fathers will cooperate in rolling over the dues for this year. They will keep the sword hanging in the possible scenario of Imran not being hallaled before the elections next year.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 20 Apr 2022 21:37

Dilbu wrote:Country braces for worst diesel shortage

Ironically, Maulana Diesel is one of the candidates for President

Well, at least they may have a shortage of Diesel, but they will never face a shortage of Maulanas.

partha · Post by **partha** » 20 Apr 2022 22:14

athulya wrote:Mifatah Ismal , the finance minister is flying tonite to USoA to meet IMF officials and get some moolah.
Thereafter as per chatter he will go to london to meet Nawaaz and IssaqDar. Bilwal Bhutto of PPP is already in london.
So Uncle Sam is going to partially rescue them , China/Saudi will chip in too

After the removal of his name from the exit control list, the finance minister is set to leave for Washington tonight to participate in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the stalled seventh review of the $6 billion loan program.
haraam link
https://t.co/sQihXXqJqi

I hope this time the finance minister of Pakistan at least gets a car to drive around in DC. Last time Mr Tarin had to take a train to the airport in DC and almost missed his return flight.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 21 Apr 2022 00:48

^^^
I'm sure he'll get a hero's reception. After all, it's the US which installed this regime after conspiring to get rid of Kaptaan.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 21 Apr 2022 02:06

partha wrote:
athulya wrote:Mifatah Ismal , the finance minister is flying tonite to USoA to meet IMF officials and get some moolah.
Thereafter as per chatter he will go to london to meet Nawaaz and IssaqDar. Bilwal Bhutto of PPP is already in london.
So Uncle Sam is going to partially rescue them , China/Saudi will chip in too

haraam link
https://t.co/sQihXXqJqi
I hope this time the finance minister of Pakistan at least gets a car to drive around in DC. Last time Mr Tarin had to take a train to the airport in DC and almost missed his return flight.

Let's see. The new finance minister in the PML-N led Shahbaz Sharif cabinet, Shaukat Tarin, was also the finance minister in Yousuf Raza Gilani cabinet during PPP administration ! But that's not all, Shaukat Tarin was also the principal financial advisor to Imran Khan when PTI was in power ! Shaukat Tarin isnt the only exception, Shiekh Rasheed was a minister in Nawaz Sharif's cabinet in the 90s. The wicked jackal he is then sold his services to Musharraf and became a member of the Zafrullah Khan Jamali's puppet government in early 2000s. Later he joined PTI and again became a cabinet minister in the Imran Khan government ! While we are at it how can we forget our beloved Shah Mahmood Quereshi ? He was with PML-N and became a minister in the provincial Punjab government, few years later he joined Benazir Bhutto's government and contested on PPP ticket and later became MoS and foreign minister in the Gilani administration. He then switched to PTI and again was inducted into the cabinet as the foreign minister. There's also the clown Fawad Chaudhry and few others but you see the pattern. These guys are Ram Vilas Paswan on steroids ! Atleast in case of Paswan the man stayed loyal to himself and his party but kept changing coalitions as long as he could land a berth in the cabinet, with Pakis it is not just coalitions but they change parties every election and yet PTI (ch)youthias think Imran khan was bringing some "Riyasat-e-Pudina" when half his cabinet was made up of dal-badlus (party hoppers!).

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 21 Apr 2022 02:08

34 per cent of Pakistan’s population lives on just Rs 588 a day income, says World Bank.

It now expects the current account deficit to rise to 5.3 per cent of GDP by end-June 2022, from a previous forecast of 4.1 per cent, mainly due to imports of oil and commodities. In the World Economic Outlook released in Washington, the IMF projected Pakistan’s current account deficit to hit USD 18.5 billion this fiscal year. Previously the Fund had projected a deficit of USD 12.9 billion for FY2022.

The Fund estimates that Pakistan requires gross external financing of over USD 35 billion in the current fiscal year on a current account deficit of 5.3 per cent of GDP in FY2022. The IMF also raised its inflation forecasts for Pakistan to 12.7 per cent on an average for the current fiscal from the previous projection of 9.4 per cent. The CPI inflation stood at 12.7 per cent in March 2022.

athulya · Post by **athulya** » 22 Apr 2022 03:43

Why is chicha Sam making the poor Bakis run round and round , when they know they have to bail them out ?

Meanwhile , with empty coffers , bakis are not even able to make any noise around the zulms on mard-e-momins in desh.

Noting that the fund had set a series of prior conditions involving steep fiscal adjustment close to Pakistani rupees 1.3 trillion, the finance minister said that the IMF wants:-

fuel prices raised to breakeven and taxes restored,
amnesty scheme discontinued for industries,
circular debt reduced,
power rates increased ,and
fiscal savings ensured

in order to completely reverse the February 28 relief package extended by the previous government, reported the Dawn newspaper.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 987692.cms

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 22 Apr 2022 06:35

Its not like the establishment did not know the precarious state of the paki economy but yet they thought it was wise to move in and replace kaptain but why ? Conventional wisdom and the paki establishment's history tells us that they are less keen on doing a hard or a soft coup when the economy or security situation is in doldrums, so does makes one wonder what rubicon is it that Imran crossed that he had to be replaced immediately ?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Apr 2022 08:24

Ambar wrote:Its not like the establishment did not know the precarious state of the paki economy but yet they thought it was wise to move in and replace kaptain but why ? Conventional wisdom and the paki establishment's history tells us that they are less keen on doing a hard or a soft coup when the economy or security situation is in doldrums, so does makes one wonder what rubicon is it that Imran crossed that he had to be replaced immediately ?

Demand of 3 names for the new ISI chief. Thinking that he was the elected PM and not the selected PM.

bharathp · Post by **bharathp** » 22 Apr 2022 08:31

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2353506/go ... -authority

It was revealed during the meeting that over 37% of the installed capacity of the CPEC power projects, or 1,980 megawatts, was out of order due to non-payment of dues to Chinese investors. The meeting was informed that total receivables of the 10 Chinese IPPs have shot up to Rs300 billion, out of which the overdue amount was Rs270 billion.

The three imported coal-fired power plants, Hubco, Sahiwal and Port Qasim have closed one of their two units due to non-availability of the fuel, a senior former official who was responsible for the CPEC told The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity.

The CPEC projects were also facing delays due to change in taxation policies by the last government in violation of commitments given to China. The PTI government had last year withdrawn the sales tax exemption on imports.

As per initial CPEC plan, the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were supposed to be ready by 2020 but unfortunately, in the last four years, there has been zero progress on SEZs, said the minister while adding that the Interior Division should ensure the fool proof security of the Chinese in Pakistan.

its the battle of asal abbu.. or asal puttar.. TSP trying to get IMF loan by imposing sales tax on imports, trying to get china to restart CPEC.. who will give loan first?

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 22 Apr 2022 08:37

As i'd mentioned, CPEC power projects will start generating only if their dues are paid. I also believe that more baksheesh from Cheen is contingent upon clearing the dues of their power producers. Which can be done only be raising power tariffs.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 22 Apr 2022 09:07

Ambar wrote:Its not like the establishment did not know the precarious state of the paki economy but yet they thought it was wise to move in and replace kaptain but why ? Conventional wisdom and the paki establishment's history tells us that they are less keen on doing a hard or a soft coup when the economy or security situation is in doldrums, so does makes one wonder what rubicon is it that Imran crossed that he had to be replaced immediately ?

in the case if SL, they have approached the IMF regarding a loan/bailout, and India has spoken up strongly on their behalf at the IMF

The IMF is appreciative of India's financial and other help to SL as also its taking up the SL case with the IMF

The pakis must be watching all this with a great deal of dismay as no one seems to have spoken up on their behalf

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 22 Apr 2022 12:33

chetak wrote:...

in the case if SL, they have approached the IMF regarding a loan/bailout, and India has spoken up strongly on their behalf at the IMF

The IMF is appreciative of India's financial and other help to SL as also its taking up the SL case with the IMF

...

Does 'spoken up strongly' mean we have said we will be the loan guarantor?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 22 Apr 2022 12:46

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:...

in the case if SL, they have approached the IMF regarding a loan/bailout, and India has spoken up strongly on their behalf at the IMF

The IMF is appreciative of India's financial and other help to SL as also its taking up the SL case with the IMF

...
Does 'spoken up strongly' mean we have said we will be the loan guarantor?

no, but it has our strong recommendation

India has already committed upwards of approx 2.5billion$ and is thinking of may be committing about 2billion$ more

the nepalese, beedis and the myanmarese are already lining up, katora in hand and the pakis are very hopeful and upbeat about "trade" and visas so that it is easier to push in the jehadis

I don't think this large a commitment to SL was warranted or even wise

at the end of it, the cheeni will still be there

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 23 Apr 2022 17:00

Forgive a international finance & diplomacy noob, Chetak ji, but at this level the words have to be backed up by certain tangibles must they not? Anyway the coming days shall shed light

Meanwhile this being the Jihadistan economy thread the latest from baki finance minister Miftah Ismail -

Yawn - Miftah says govt willing to curb fuel subsidies

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on Friday agreed with International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations to reduce fuel subsidies and end a business tax amnesty scheme, pledging to pursue structural reforms to boost a crisis-wracked economy.

Ismail, who took office this month after the Imran Khan led-government lost a no-confidence vote, said he had “good discussions” with the IMF on a visit during the Washington-based lender's annual spring meetings.

“They've talked about removing the subsidy on fuel. I agree with them,” Ismail, himself a former IMF economist, said at the Atlantic Council.

There you go... bakis doing a favor to the IMF

BTW Im-the-Dim can go on the attack and say the new paki fin min is IMF agent.