Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Akshay Kapoor
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 20 Mar 2018 12:59

Peregrine wrote:
Vips wrote:Tallel then TFTA, Deepel then Gubo, Sweeter then Ajinomoto :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
chetak wrote:Not only that, the hans are very excited because cheeni Ajinomoto often makes the paki heart beat faster :)
to paraphrase some forgotten american, the cheeni says to the paki

" is that a bottle of ajinimoto in your pocket or are you just glad to see me "??

Rhythm abnormalities like atrial fibrillation, supraventricular tachyarrhythmia and ventricular tachycardia have been associated with MSG (Ajinomoto).
chetak Ji :

Following received from Ajinomoto Co. Inc. Head Office, 15-1, Kyobashi 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8315 :

Q U O T E

Prease pass forrowing message to Chetak San,

Dear Chetak San,

Prease note that Ajinomoto is most definitery not a Chinese Product but is Made in Japan where our Group has been Making and supprying this product since 1907.

We understand that a country named Pakistan and its Peopre are carring Ajinomoto as "Chinese Sart".

We have very good rerations with India and we would not rike to have any probrems with you. Pakistan is a different entity and we wirr dear with them rater.

Prease do not use the Term "Chinese Sart" for our Worrd Known product "Ajinomoto".

Domo, Domo Arigato Gozimashita.

U N Q O T E

Would request you to kindly comply with the above request otherwise it might lead to Honourable Hara Kiri by the Honourable Japanese Members of Ajinomoto Inc.

Cheers Image


brilliant ! But with all the Rs it sounds Chinese !

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Mar 2018 16:55

Peregrine wrote:chetak Ji :

Following received from Ajinomoto Co. Inc. Head Office, 15-1, Kyobashi 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8315 :

Q U O T E

Prease pass forrowing message to Chetak San,

Dear Chetak San,

Prease note that Ajinomoto is most definitery not a Chinese Product but is Made in Japan where our Group has been Making and supprying this product since 1907.

We understand that a country named Pakistan and its Peopre are carring Ajinomoto as "Chinese Sart".

We have very good rerations with India and we would not rike to have any probrems with you. Pakistan is a different entity and we wirr dear with them rater.

Prease do not use the Term "Chinese Sart" for our Worrd Known product "Ajinomoto".

Domo, Domo Arigato Gozimashita.

U N Q O T E

Would request you to kindly comply with the above request otherwise it might lead to Honourable Hara Kiri by the Honourable Japanese Members of Ajinomoto Inc.

Cheers
Akshay Kapoor wrote:brilliant ! But with all the Rs it sounds Chinese !
Akshay Kapoor Ji :

Pappa Ji, the Japanese carr me Peregrine and you Akshay Kapoor but the Chinese will call you Akshay Kapool and me Pelegline.

VIVA LA DIFFÉRENCE!

BTW : The Arabic script has no P. So it is Bakistan by the Arabs and now by the Terroristanis. This is pertinent as the Eastern Half is gone. Thus Terroristan is finally Bakistan in Every Language!

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby rsingh » 20 Mar 2018 19:44

^^^^
Reminds me of Mr Shmit complaining of Rat shit in die rice from -Bakistan.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Mar 2018 21:56

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Rupee loses almost 5%, KSE-100 gains almost 1.8% in intra-day trading

KARACHI: Spurred by an almost 5% fall in the rupee’s value against the dollar, the KSE-100 Index – benchmark for market performance – climbed 776 points in intra-day trading as investors rushed to buy stocks that benefit from a weaker currency.

Quite fittingly, the textile and oil sectors gained due to a direct advantage, while shares of banks got a boost due to expectations of an early interest rate hike that would come on the back of higher inflation readings.

By 12:15pm, the KSE-100 Index was hovering around the 44,160 level for an intra-day increase of 620 points or 1.42% with index-heavy banks, oil and textile stocks leading the rally. Volume on the all-share index were up to 125 million shares already, less than halfway through the session. The increased activity was in sharp contrast to a dull session on Monday when volume for the entire session amounted to 116 million shares.

Market talk suggested the dollar went up to Rs116, but the number would only be final at close of trading on Tuesday. The rupee depreciation comes on the back of immense pressure on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves that have plunged to around $12 billion as a widening current account deficit takes its toll on the economy.

International creditors as well as independent economists have long said that the Pakistani rupee is overvalued against the dollar and needs to fall to around Rs115.

On Tuesday, however, it seemed like economic fundamentals were incharge.

“The dollar went as high as Rs116 (in the inter-bank market),” Saad Khan, head of research at IGI Securities, told The Express Tribune. “We will have to see where it ends today.

“However, the market seems to have gotten the push due to this. Textile, banks and oil sector benefit the most from this.”

Given that a fall in the rupee’s value would stoke inflation, analysts and experts now expect an early interest rate hike by the central bank.

“There is going to be a minimum 25 basis points increase in the interest rate in the upcoming monetary policy.”

To recall, the State Bank of Pakistan, in a widely unexpected move, increase the key interest rate by 25 basis points in its last monetary policy announced at the end of January.

With the next announcement expected to be made soon, analysts are factoring in at least another 25-basis-point increase, which would take the key interest rate to 6.25%.

“Inflation readings are expected to be higher and would slowly creep up to over 5% by the end of the fiscal year. There could now be a more permanent impact in the pace of inflation.”

A weaker rupee makes exports cheaper, benefitting the country’s export-oriented textile sector. However, it also makes imports expensive, denting margins of import-centric industries like autos. The trend was visible in Tuesday’s share prices of these companies.

Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 20 Mar 2018 22:12

PKR/ Paki Randippee lost 5 % in one day now 114.88

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 20 Mar 2018 23:57

Peregrine wrote:
Peregrine wrote:chetak Ji :

Following received from Ajinomoto Co. Inc. Head Office, 15-1, Kyobashi 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8315 :

Q U O T E

Prease pass forrowing message to Chetak San,

Dear Chetak San,

Prease note that Ajinomoto is most definitery not a Chinese Product but is Made in Japan where our Group has been Making and supprying this product since 1907.

We understand that a country named Pakistan and its Peopre are carring Ajinomoto as "Chinese Sart".

We have very good rerations with India and we would not rike to have any probrems with you. Pakistan is a different entity and we wirr dear with them rater.

Prease do not use the Term "Chinese Sart" for our Worrd Known product "Ajinomoto".

Domo, Domo Arigato Gozimashita.

U N Q O T E

Would request you to kindly comply with the above request otherwise it might lead to Honourable Hara Kiri by the Honourable Japanese Members of Ajinomoto Inc.

Cheers
Akshay Kapoor wrote:brilliant ! But with all the Rs it sounds Chinese !
Akshay Kapoor Ji :

Pappa Ji, the Japanese carr me Peregrine and you Akshay Kapoor but the Chinese will call you Akshay Kapool and me Pelegline.

VIVA LA DIFFÉRENCE!

BTW : The Arabic script has no P. So it is Bakistan by the Arabs and now by the Terroristanis. This is pertinent as the Eastern Half is gone. Thus Terroristan is finally Bakistan in Every Language!

Cheers Image


Oh sirji , mainnu pata hai. But I was only asking most humbly why not Japanese hai, mas etc instead of Chinese ls. But sirji either way it was brilliant. Loved it. Keep it coming.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 21 Mar 2018 00:00

Btw I have been meaning to ask you for a long time. Is that a pint of Guinness ?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Mar 2018 00:58

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Btw I have been meaning to ask you for a long time. Is that a pint of Guinness ?
Akshay Kapoor Ji

Indeed - Guinness is Good for you!

Cheers Image

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Mar 2018 01:07

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Oh sirji , mainnu pata hai. But I was only asking most humbly why not Japanese hai, mas etc instead of Chinese ls. But sirji either way it was brilliant. Loved it. Keep it coming.
Akshay Kapoor Ji :

Ajj the becuj the Retter from the Japanese Company is in Japanese Engrish!

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 21 Mar 2018 18:10


Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Mar 2018 18:35

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread.

Rupee’s fall stokes inflation fears, concerns over total debt payments

KARACHI: Pakistan’s currency lost value against the US dollar yet again as authorities struggle to create a balance in external trade and mounting current account deficit, which is fast eating up foreign exchange reserves and impacting the country’s ability to cover the import bill.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) abruptly allowed the rupee to lose 4% against the dollar, with the rupee ending at Rs115 in the inter-bank market on Tuesday. This was the second spell of depreciation in a short span of three months. Earlier, in December 2017, the rupee lost around 5% to become Rs110.64 to the greenback and stayed at the level for the last few months.

Stakeholders, including importers and exporters, largely found it a wise decision to depreciate the rupee in a bit to increase exports and remittances, which should one way or the other play their role in controlling the twin deficits and slow down the decrease in foreign exchange reserves.

At the same time, they foresaw its negative impact on the internal economy. The depreciation would increase the import bill, petrol prices, utility tariffs, cost of doing business and transportation, and convince the central bank to increase key interest rate as a remedy to deal with increased inflation.

Pakistan Business Council (PBC) CEO Ehsan Malik said “overall, it (rupee-dollar parity) is moving in the right direction…it was a wise decision to gradually depreciate the rupee by Rs4-5 against the US dollar each time instead of doing it in one go.”

He said the depreciation was expected as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been lobbying for it.

He said it would help in increasing exports as happened in the post-December depreciation event. However, it would not significantly slow down imports, he added.

“Rupee devaluation may also result in increased inflation, forcing the central bank to increase the key interest rate by 0.5% to deal with the likely situation,” he said.

Textile bigger beneficiary

Sherman Securities said in its note that the rupee’s depreciation against the greenback would largely benefit textile exports which account for around 60% of the total exports of the country.

“Besides, it would also help oil and gas exploration and production firms, petroleum refineries and some independent power producers to benefit since they are guaranteed returns in US dollars by the government,” the report stated.

The benefit was on full display at the country’s stock market on Tuesday with the textile, oil and exploration sectors, as well has banks taking the KSE-100 Index 1.8% higher.

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 21 Mar 2018 18:45

Will the loss in value of currency mean shrinking of their GDP in $ terms or is that calculation unaffected by this?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 21 Mar 2018 20:15

It depends on whether their exports are elastic or not. If they are then exports should go up countering the GDP drop in dollar terms. But usually big currency drops are not elastic even in the best economies and Pak is dysfunctional and male nothing worth selling except terror. So my view is that they will get hit on GDP.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 27 Mar 2018 20:14

X Posting Bloomberg article which discloses that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan has the dubious distinction of having the fastest depleting foreign exchange reserves in Australasia:

Falijee wrote:Even Cambodia Is Better Off Than Pakistan, With Reference To Foreign Exchange Reserves :D

Fastest Depleting Dollar Reserves in Asia to Slump Even Further
Bloomberg News

Pakistan is depleting its dollar reserves at the fastest pace in Asia and may soon have a buffer that’s smaller than Cambodia, an economy that’s less than a 10th of its size. Pakistan is an Atomi Taakat, Cambodia is not :twisted:
Reserves have dropped by about a fifth in the past year to reach $13.5 billion in February, while in Cambodia they’ve increased a third to $11.2 billion in January, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan’s reserves are expected to drop as much as $2.2 billion by June, according to Insight Securities Pvt. All saazish by western powers . Pakistan is all OK !
Pakistan is facing a balance of payments crunch. Its current-account deficit has ballooned by 50 percent in the past eight months to $10.8 billion, fueled by rising imports as the economy grows close to 5 percent and Chinese funders add new power plants. With reserves coming under pressure, authorities devalued the currency for the second time in four months last week.
“Your hot money capital inflows are not coming in. Real conditions of the economy are that exports are not picking up,” said Turab Hussain, head of the economics department at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. “Bangladesh are the ones that are a stronger economy now.” So, this Pakjabi economist admits that Bangladesh has become the second biggest "South Asian" economy - Pakistan relegated to third place :mrgreen:
Once known as East Pakistan before being separated in 1971, Bangladesh’s reserves are now more than double those of Pakistan’s, with exports that exceed its South Asian counterpart. Both nations as well as Cambodia are competitors in global textile markets. But known of them have nuclear bums !
New Zealand and Kazakhstan are among other Asia Pacific countries with smaller economies but more reserves than Pakistan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ouch !
“There is no easy fix,” said Uzair Younus, a South Asia director at Washington-based consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group LLC. “The solution lies in improving the business climate” to attract greater foreign direct investment inflows and implementing reforms to make exports more competitive globally, he said. The solution lies in reducing your military expenditures and abandon your quest for = = with India :D

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Mar 2018 20:29

This is the perfect time for india to increase our defence budget invest in new capabilities. ordering (even if false) 1000s of arjuns would have them browning shalwars to borrow more and expedite the inevitable

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 27 Mar 2018 20:59

^^ Look at the bositive side. New zealand was compared in the bloomberg report with Bakistan. The nukular bakistani bums are bringing much needed honor and dignity to bakistan in the comity of nations.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 27 Mar 2018 21:19

When will 1 Indian Rupee be equal to 2 Paki Rupees?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 27 Mar 2018 23:29

Aditya_V wrote:When will 1 Indian Rupee be equal to 2 Paki Rupees?


Officially, it is at 1 IRupee :1.80 PRupee
At a street exchanger near Wagha, it is probably closer to 1: 2.

But, since a paki mard-e-momeen is worth ten times a SDRE Yindoo, the Indian Rupee, in reality, is 1/5th baki rupee.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 28 Mar 2018 00:12

Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 11:34

So Pakistan's foreign reserves are now spoken of in the same breath as Azerbaijan and Papua New Guinea. Certainly a proud moment for every Paki.
Btw, is this number just for dollar or does it include their Renminbi reserves too?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Mar 2018 14:26

Trikaal wrote:So Pakistan's foreign reserves are now spoken of in the same breath as Azerbaijan and Papua New Guinea. Certainly a proud moment for every Paki.
Btw, is this number just for dollar or does it include their Renminbi reserves too?
Trikaal Ji :

The Figures Declared or Real are INCLUSIVE of ALL CURRENCIES Renmibi and all sorts of Fictitious or Otherwise Currencies are included i the Terroristani Foreign ExchangeReserves

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US DOLLARS BILLIONS

Declared Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.1723 - TOTAL : 17.9484

I draw your attention to the following Article :

09-12-2017 : After debt repayments in coming months, SBP’s own net reserves will be a mere $4.5 billion

It states : "Usable foreign currency reserves available with all commercial banks have slid to a mere $200 million, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has swished away $5.8 billion as short-term loans in an attempt to give an artificial sense of stability to the currency market.

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US DOLLARS BILLIONS : 22-03-2018

Declared Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.1723 - TOTAL : 17.9484

Thus Real Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 0.3723 - TOTAL : 12.1484

Such is the nature of Terroristan's Constitution - For the "Leadership" will Rule & Lie and the "Aam Abduls" must Submit and Obey!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 14:41

Peregrine wrote: Trikaal Ji :

The Figures Declared or Real are INCLUSIVE of ALL CURRENCIES Renmibi and all sorts of Fictitious or Otherwise Currencies are included i the Terroristani Foreign ExchangeReserves

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US DOLLARS BILLIONS

Declared Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.1723 - TOTAL : 17.9484

I draw your attention to the following Article :

09-12-2017 : After debt repayments in coming months, SBP’s own net reserves will be a mere $4.5 billion

It states : "Usable foreign currency reserves available with all commercial banks have slid to a mere $200 million, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has swished away $5.8 billion as short-term loans in an attempt to give an artificial sense of stability to the currency market.

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US DOLLARS BILLIONS : 22-03-2018

Declared Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.1723 - TOTAL : 17.9484

Thus Real Figures SBP : 11.7761 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 0.3723 - TOTAL : 12.1484

Such is the nature of Terroristan's Constitution - For the "Leadership" will Rule & Lie and the "Aam Abduls" must Submit and Obey!

Cheers Image


Wow, looks like soon it will be time for Pakis to start eating the grass they are so fond of. Time to follow up on the quote,"Ghaas khaayenge prr bam bnaayenge." Bam bnaa liya, abb ghaas khao. Cheers :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 30 Mar 2018 17:50

Trikaal wrote:Wow, looks like soon it will be time for Pakis to start eating the grass they are so fond of.


Grass? It's all gone after the atami bum was acquired and after the Indus dried up.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Apr 2018 00:36

Aditya_V wrote:When will 1 Indian Rupee be equal to 2 Paki Rupees?

It almost was around 2011.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Apr 2018 16:08

X Posting on the Terroristan & Analyzing CPEC Threads

Sahiwal coal-fired power plants feared closure on non-payment of dues

LAHORE: Chinese-owned Sahiwal coal-fired electricity project, having 1,320 megawatts generation capacity, has neared the brink of closure within nine months of its operation as government couldn't settle Rs20 billion in power dues of the project, corporate sources said on Monday.

The sources said the government has yet to pay around Rs20 billion of the outstanding amount to the management of coal-fired power plants, which are helping in bridging gap between demand and supply with cheap power.

“Against monthly payments of Rs10 billion, the government is only clearing partial payments, which may hamper power production,” a project’s official said, requesting anonymity. A spokesman of power ministry argued that government is making payments to Sahiwal coal power company. “Seventy nine percent of outstanding amount has been paid till today,” he said, declining to share other details.

Sahiwal coal power project, which is the first energy sector’s initiative under multibillion dollars China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), was built with the cost of $1.6 billion. Construction on the project started in March 2015. The first generating unit of the Sahiwal power plant was inaugurated in May last. The second unit was put online in late 2017. The project was completed in a record period of 22 months.

A joint-venture of China’s state-owned Huaneng Shandong Electricity Limited (owning 51 percent of stake) and textile firm Shandong Ruyi Group (holding 49 percent stake) built the project on a build, operate and transfer basis. The plant’s ownership will be transferred to the government of Punjab after 30 years of operation.

Appalled by rising receivables, the project’s management raised issue of non-payments with the authorities through diplomatic channels, officials said.

The management is facing a double whammy of ensuring uninterrupted coal sourcing and its smooth supply from port to upcountry. Major chunk of income is spent on coal buying and freight charges. “Pakistan Railway demands advance payment for coal transportation,” an official added.

Officials said that giant coal power plant in Qadirabad, established more than 1,000 kilometres from the port, faces biggest financial challenge in early period of operation.

“At the time of its inception, consistent supply of coal from port to upcountry has been conceived as the biggest challenge to survival of this new form of energy generation,” an official said. “The risk in transportation was huge given the logistic issues relating to mammoth quantity of coal. However, this cumbersome task, which was never done before in the country, is now adequately being carried out by Pakistan Railways round-the-clock with the help of dedicated staff and state-of-the-art engines and rolling stock.”

China is one the world’s most high-tech countries in thermal power generation. Sahiwal power plant is first of its kind supercritical coal-fired power plant in the country having highly efficient machinery for controlling pollution and carbon emissions.

CPEC initiative envisaged more than $50 billion investment in major infrastructure projects over a 10- year period. Of that, energy projects are estimated at $38 billion, aiming to add 17,045 megawatts to grid.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 03 Apr 2018 19:04

Is this the beginning of the end?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Apr 2018 00:55

Trikaal wrote:Is this the beginning of the end?
Trikaal Ji :

Slowly Slowly Tightening Noose!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 04 Apr 2018 20:19

Dollarization of Pakistan economy is against Pakistan's national interests: PEW

The Pakistan Economy Watch (PEW) on Wednesday said the continued decline in exchange rate has shattered the confidence of masses in the rupee which has triggered dollarization of the economy.
it damages monetary sovereignty, hurt the economy and leave central bank almost useless
He said that dollar is sold at Rs117 in the open market
He added that frequent devaluation has pushed masses to convert their savings and profit into the dollar that cannot be countered through encouraging statements of secret meetings with the currency dealers. :rotfl:
The continued fall in the value of rupee and lack of reforms as well as inaction can result in widespread rejection of the rupee
one of the reasons for dollarisation is the negative rate of return given to the depositors by the commercial banks which push them to prefer dollars to reduce the risk of inflation and devaluation


How about Renminbization? After all, the majority of the awaam will be speaking mandarin in a few years and using the yuan as the standard of exchange in key regions. Most of the pakis will be working as service workers (kabadiwalas, chaiwalas, ladies of the night, security guards and dhaba owners) any way.

https://timesofislamabad.com/04-Apr-201 ... erests-pew

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Apr 2018 17:52

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread.

Terroristan's Latest Economic Miracle! :rotfl:

Rupee expected to depreciate 12 percent by FY19-end

KARACHI: Rupee is expected to further depreciate around 12 percent by the end of the next fiscal year of 2019 as external financing requirements are projected to remain elevated in the medium-term on growing imports, a brokerage said on Wednesday.

“We expect a further depreciation of around 5 percent in rupee/dollar value by the second half of 2018 followed by approximately 5 to 7 percent devaluation during 2018/19,” Alfalah Securities said in an economic brief. “We expect further market-driven downward adjustment of the exchange rate in response to depletion of forex reserves, with the magnitude and duration of rupee weakness depending on when Pakistan signs up to a (International Monetary) Fund program – or manages to arrange foreign exchange reserves- bolstering hard currency from alternate sources.”

Rupee lost 10 percent of its value against dollar since December 2017.

The brokerage said the country’s external financing requirements would increase in the medium-term as large energy import requirements displace China-Pakistan Economic Corridor -related machinery imports, and as “a hump in debt repayments kick in”.

“The gross external financing requirement is on target to be around $25 billion for the full year,” it added. “The unfunded portion of the overall external gap is estimated to be around $12 billion for the current fiscal year, which could represent a drawdown of official reserves if it remains unfinanced.”

Alfalah Securities said the unsustainable external financing requirements on the horizon mean that the rupee would begin to experience volatility as well as pressure again within a few months.

“With dwindling foreign exchange reserves, SBP’s ability to intervene in the markets will also be constrained,” it added.

“The depletion of foreign exchange reserves continued with the country’s international liquidity having declined a cumulative $7.1 billion in the past 12 months or by 38 percent.”

The brokerage said the pressure on the balance of payments position has continued to mount despite a noticeable turnaround in the country’s exports since early 2017. “With large net external financing needs persisting over the next three years, the forex reserves loss is expected to continue, requiring an IMF (International Monetary Fund) loan arrangement (or an alternate financing source) by the summer.”

Current account deficit rises 50 percent to $10.8 billion for the July-February period of the current fiscal year.

Alfalah Securities said the dynamic of Pakistan-US relations could at some stage, depending on how much ‘pain’ the US administration wants to bring to bear, hamper the country’s access to multilateral financing, including from the IMF.

“At this stage, however, we regard this as a low-probability event – but a potential risk that needs to be monitored,” it added. “An additional exogenous risk is the possibility of a full-fledged global trade war sparked by the US administration’s tariff moves against major trading partners.”

The brokerage said the pause in monetary tightening is unwarranted and a sign of weakness that the central bank may rue in the months ahead as the pressure on the external account as well as inflationary pressure continue to intensify.

“We believe the policy response function warrants more aggressive measures – which the central bank will be forced to turn to from May onwards,” it added.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Apr 2018 18:12

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread.

More foreign loans only way to sustain reserves: Rana Afzal

ISLAMABAD: The outgoing government would leave official foreign currency reserves – currently standing at only $11.8 billion — at a ‘comfortable level’ for its successor, Minister of State for Finance Rana Afzal assured on Tuesday.

The widening current account deficit is the biggest challenge and the only option is to “arrange dollars to meet financing requirements’, said Rana Afzal while speaking at the Express Group’s Budget Seminar.

The government plans to take commercial loans and in addition it has sent requests to friendly countries to place more deposits in the State Bank of Pakistan, according to sources in the Ministry of Finance. Friendly countries have already placed $1.7 billion as deposits with the central bank under currency swap arrangements, which are part of the $11.8 billion gross official reserves.

The government is eying to tap more commercial loans at a time when interest rates in capital markets have started increasing.

The SBP has also dropped a hint about these arrangements in its latest Monetary Policy announcement. The government’s plans to timely mobilise external inflows, both official and commercial, will play a pivotal role in maintaining adequate level of SBP’s foreign exchange reserves and anchoring sentiments in foreign exchange markets, according to the central bank.

Due to ever widening current account deficit, the SBP’s foreign exchange reserves declined to $11.78 billion as of March 22, which are hardly sufficient for two months of future import bill. Due to low reserves levels, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have already suspended budgetary support for Pakistan.

The current account deficit has already reached $10.8 billion during July-February period of this fiscal year, which is about 50% more than it was during the same period in the last fiscal year.

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In its latest report, the IMF said that Pakistan’s net official foreign currency reserves were negative $724 million as of mid-February. It has estimated Pakistan’s gross financing requirements at $24.5 billion for this fiscal year.

Rana Afzal defended high debt levels and said that the government did not have an option but to borrow to run its affairs. He said that high spending on security was also the reason behind the growing debt burden.

Rana Afzal advocated continuity of the political system that he said would help address the governance issues in the country. In India, there is one political system for last 70 years but we have not yet decided what is good for Pakistan, he added.

He appealed that there should be no politics on the issue of economy and the political parties should sign the charter of economy.

The current socio-economic conditions will create enormous difficulties for the next government, said Omar Ayub, former minister of state for finance. Ayub also highlighted flaws in negotiations of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

In its current shape, the CPEC is just a trade route that will massively reduce the transportation cost for the Chinese but it would not create jobs for Pakistanis, said Ayub. He said that the government should strive to create more jobs opportunities by renegotiating CPEC terms.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 05 Apr 2018 21:22

Klasra on India's Reliance Co borrowing @ 3% and paki nation borrowing @ 6%.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 06 Apr 2018 20:45

Haraam Link: Pakistan delays FTA-II signing with China at eleventh hour.

Pakistan has put off the signing of a revised free trade agreement with China at the last moment due to strong reservations about the final offer list shared by Beijing, said Minister of State for Finance Rana Muhammad Afzal on Thursday. “The agreement was almost ready for signing when we conveyed our reservations to the prime minister about the final list of concessions that Beijing shared at 11pm,” said the deputy finance minister.

He was briefing the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance on the status of negotiations on second phase of the free trade agreement (FTA) with China. The committee expressed concern over what it said was the secret nature of FTA-II talks. Over the past few weeks, the Chinese ambassador has held meetings with the commerce secretary and Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi in order to push the deal.

It was almost a mature agreement and was about to be signed by both countries, Afzal said, revealing the decision to delay the endorsement was taken after the business community of Faisalabad – Pakistan’s textile hub – voiced serious reservations about the Chinese final offer list.

Both countries have so far held 10 rounds of negotiations for finalisation of the FTA-II. However, the industry and Federal Board of Revenue put up fierce resistance after the commerce ministry revealed in an internal meeting that Pakistan would offer zero duties on 75% of imported tariff lines.

Under first phase of the FTA, Pakistan gave duty concessions on 35% of tariff lines, which led to a huge influx of Chinese goods and many local industries could not survive. (So china will get concessions on duties on 75% of tariff lines which is even more then the 35% in the first phase :rotfl: )

Under the second phase, China was seeking certain concessions which the Pakistan industry was not ready to give, said Afzal. “Bureaucracy thinks that it knows all, but this approach has put the country’s economic future at stake,” said Qaiser Ahmad Sheikh, Chairman of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance.

He regretted that the commerce ministry did not take all the stakeholders into confidence before offering huge concessions to Beijing. Trade with China was already one-sided and if further concessions were given, no industry would survive in Pakistan, he warned.

Trade volume between China and Pakistan, which stood at $4 billion a year before the FTA signing in 2008, peaked to $15.6 billion in 2016-17. Pakistan’s exports to China were only $1.5 billion in the last fiscal year while imports amounted to $14 billion, according to Chinese statistics.

It was a wrong perception that the commerce ministry did not take the stakeholders into confidence as it had held meetings with 85 associations, claimed Javed Akbar, Additional Commerce Secretary.

He revealed that 40% of imports from China were not entitled for duty concessions and most of the imports comprised either capital goods or raw material. However, committee members did not accept the ministry’s explanation.

Akbar revealed that the 11th round of talks with China would now be held only after taking into confidence all the stakeholders on China’s final offer. The commerce ministry did not hold meaningful consultations with parliament before holding talks with China, said Asad Umar of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

He underlined the need for a review of the trade figures to determine how much of imports from China was the outcome of change in destination from Europe and the west to China.

Umar said free trade agreements should not be constructed on theory rather they must be based on ground realities. “The ground reality is that Pakistan’s industry is not competitive.”

“FTA-II is being finalised in haste as it serves vested interests of a few people,” remarked Qaiser Sheikh. A joint meeting of the National Assembly standing committees on finance and commerce will now be held to finalise parliament’s response to the FTA-II.

There is apprehension that Beijing’s push for further trade liberalisation under second phase of the FTA may dampen prospects of Chinese investment in prioritised special economic zones being set up under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It would be convenient and cheaper for Chinese companies to manufacture in China and supply products to Pakistan at zero duties, which would render the SEZs useless. :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Apr 2018 16:07

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

The IMF: our inevitable recipe

The economy is in a tight spot and the government seems to be at a loss on how to dig it out of this situation on its own. The depreciation of the rupee – twice in three months – after nearly four years of managed exchange rate stability is only a kernel of the tailspin into which the economy has been thrown.

We can see with half an eye that another agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the inevitable recipe. For some nations, breaking the begging bowl is nothing more than a pie in the sky.

In the first eight months of Financial Year (FY) 2018, the current account deficit reached $10.82 billion as compared with $7.21 billion during the corresponding period of FY 2017. The FY 2018 (July-February) current account deficit is underpinned by $19.69 billion in the merchandise trade deficit ($15.97 billion in exports and $35.66 billion in imports), and $3.53 billion trade in the services deficit ($3.43 billion in exports and $6.97 billion in imports). The $12.83 billion in remittances eased the pressure on the current account balance.

The IMF’s latest report on the Pakistan economy projects a current account deficit worth $15.7 billion (4.8 percent of GDP) for the entire financial year, which will be $3.3 billion higher than what it was in FY 2017 ($12.4 billion or 4.1 percent of GDP). The Fund forecasts a 10 percent export growth and 10.2 percent import growth for the entire FY 2018. This means that exports will reach $22.46 billion while imports will increase to $58.22 billion, resulting in a trade deficit worth $35.76 billion as compared with a deficit of $32.46 billion recorded during FY 2017.

During FY 2018 (July-February), exports and imports have risen by 11.66 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively, on a year-on-year (YOY) basis. Therefore, if we assume that exports and imports will maintain the same growth momentum for the entire FY 2018 that was registered during the first eight months, the year will end with $22.80 billion in exports, $62.02 billion in imports and the highest-ever trade deficit of $39.22 billion. These projections will also increase the current account deficit in FY 2018.

A country running a current account deficit is a net importer of capital. The capital may be imported in the form of non-debt creating instruments – such as foreign direct investment (FDI) – or debt-creating instruments – such as bilateral and multilateral loans and the sale of bonds (Euro bonds, for example). Over the years, Pakistan has only been able to attract gobbets of FDI inflows. Between FY 2013 and FY 2017, $8.85 billion was made inFDI, which amounts to $1.77 billion per annum on average. The situation has forced the government to rely on foreign credit to finance the current account deficit.

The result is a massive external debt, which has gone up in one year from $75.75 billion (as recorded on December 31, 2016) to $88.89 billion (as noted on December 31, 2017). This is in addition to Rs15.79 trillion in public domestic debt (as recorded on January 31, 2018), which is owed to domestic residents and institutions, and has been incurred to finance the budget deficit.

In 2018, Pakistan will start repaying the loan of $6.12 billion that it took from the IMF. This is likely to put pressure on the foreign exchange reserves (forex). On March 22, 2018, the liquid forex available with the central bank had come down to $11.77 billion. The meagre forex constrains the SBP’s ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market to reduce downward pressure on the value of the rupee.

Elementary economics dictates that the difference between the savings and investment in an economy is equal to its current account deficit. As a result, Pakistan’s economy, which invests more than it saves, runs a current account deficit and relies on foreign savings in the form of borrowing or FDI. In FY 2017, the gross domestic savings-GDP ratio was 11.7 percent, considerably less than the 15.8 percent gross investment-GDP ratio. The IMF’s projected ratios at the end of FY 2018 are 12.2 percent for savings and 17 percent for investment.

Low real interest rates must take the flak for the low level of savings. The SBP has adopted a fairly lenient monetary policy for quite some time. A discount rate of six percent was maintained from October 2015 to May 2016. In June 2016, the discount rate was reduced to 5.75 percent, which was raised by a whisker to six percent in February 2018. The latest monetary policy (April-May 2018) has persisted with the six percent discount rate even though the state of the economy warranted a higher interest rate. Low interest rates discourage savings and encourage spending. As a result, they contribute to trade deficits by driving up import demand.

Low domestic savings also indicate that the government has to rely on bank borrowing while financing fiscal deficit. During the first half of FY 2018, the federal government borrowed Rs573.93 billion from the banks out of the total domestic financing of Rs616 billion. The bank borrowing is inflationary and raises the cost of doing business. Borrowing from the central bank increases money supply and drives up domestic demand, which encourages imports. Not surprisingly, the IMF has been critical of our lenient monetary policy as well as the manner in which our fiscal deficit is being financed.

After keeping the exchange rate stable for four years, the government allowed the rupee to depreciate by five percent first in December 2017 and subsequently in March this year. Before the depreciation in both cases, the general view was that the domestic currency was considerably overvalued, which discouraged exports and encouraged imports.

In the wake of the first depreciation, both exports and imports went up. However, exports had increased by 10.52 percent during the first five months of the current financial year (July-November) – well before the December depreciation. The possible reasons were the generous rebates given to the exporters under the prime minister’s trade enhancement package and the increase in international cotton prices. Since the textile and clothing sector has the lion’s share in Pakistan’s exports, downward or upward movements of world cotton prices bear strongly upon export receipts.

At the same time, exports grew 16.47 percent in February 2018 on YOY basis but declined by 3.5 percent as compared with what it was in January 2018. It will, at best, be a conjecture to attribute export growth to rupee depreciation. However, the IMF believes that exchange rate depreciation is a recipe for racking up exports and, thereby, ratcheting down the current account deficit. The depreciation may also set the stage for the resumption of IMF assistance.

Apart from the galloping current account deficit, our shrinking forex also resulted in the depreciation of our exchange rate. Owing to the limited availability of forex, the SBP was hard-pressed to maintain the existing exchange rate by pumping dollars into the market. If the central bank or the government had not allowed the rupee to depreciate, the foreign exchange market would have seen an acute shortage of dollars and other hard currencies. How much the fall in the rupee value will serve as a catalyst to increase exports is anybody’s guess.

The PML-N regime will be the second popularly-elected government on the trot to complete its tenure. It is also likely to become the second government to start and close its term with a credit agreement with the IMF – the actual signing of the agreement, as it happened in 2013, may be put off until the caretakers or the new government takes office. In both cases, history will be made. The nation must brace itself for these twin historic events.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 07 Apr 2018 16:29

I hope all the sooth asians are watching the spectacular display of GUBO by the Pakis. All the cheenis had to do was wave a wad of dollahs and off came the paki langots. Now the iron brother is performing rectal probing in a way that causes much takleef to their echandee.. And the paki amby to the USA claims they need Echandee not aid..

If they are smart they will learn what is in store if they get seduced by the Cheeni billions: Utter destruction of local industry, eternal debt and public GUBO on demand..

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Apr 2018 18:21

History’s shackles

STATES can choose their friends, but not their neighbours. In an existential sense, geography is destiny.

But while we can’t change our neighbourhood, we can at least try and make it less dangerous. Located in an area that has witnessed invasions and massacres without end, we are at one of the world’s deadliest focal points of conflict and human ambition. However, if we allow ourselves to become prisoners of history, we can never get out of the hole we have dug for ourselves.

When we started out with a clean slate in 1947, our early leaders looked to the West for help in facing the perceived threat from India. Despite all the criticism levelled at them for signing up to anti-communist pacts like Seato and Cento, the fact is that at the time, only the United States had the cash and the equipment to arm the newly formed Pakistan Army.

Also, many of our founding fathers had received their higher education in England, and had a pro-West bias. Indeed, Jinnah is on record as promising to provide our ex-colonial masters with bases in return for support for the creation of Pakistan.

American hardware supplies in the mid-1950s gave us a misplaced sense of military superiority, and our position on Kashmir hardened into rigid anti-India dogma. I recall my two-month attachment with a Punjab infantry battalion as a fresh civil servant in the late 1960s. When I mentioned the Indian army’s preponderance in numbers to the commanding officer, he answered in all seriousness that one Muslim soldier was equal to five Hindus.

We had options other than the path of confrontation with our huge eastern neighbour.

And this despite the 1971 war, and the Kargil misadventure which was yet another reminder that the small guy doesn’t always win. A friend recounted a recent chance encounter with a serving brigadier in which he brought up the subject of the growing military and economic imbalance between India and Pakistan. The army officer replied heatedly: “We will embrace martyrdom if necessary! We will never surrender!”

The point of this historical detour is to suggest that we had options other than the path of confrontation with our huge eastern neighbour. Until the mid-1970s, ‘parity’ was the official mantra in our Foreign Office as our diplomats demanded equal treatment with India.

Now, of course, we watch major statesmen and industrialists visit India while skipping Pakistan. Even friends and allies like China and Saudi Arabia no longer mention the United Nations resolutions on Kashmir, and urge us to negotiate directly with India instead.

As the gap between the two neighbours grows, we appear to have made things more difficult for ourselves. By refusing to open up trade with India, we have restricted our economy’s potential. For all his faults, Nawaz Sharif saw the flaws of our current India policy, and tried to improve relations. His opponents have used this as a stick to beat him with.

We need to realise that Kashmir will not be handed over to us on a platter. One can also question whether many of the protesters rebelling against the Indian yoke are doing so in order to join Pakistan; their demand is for azadi.

It is a reality that India will continue to move ahead in both military and economic terms. And the links between Washington and New Delhi will become closer, no matter who is the president of the United States is. For them, India is too important a market to ignore, and is the only country in the region that can counter the growing Chinese clout.

Add to this factor Kabul’s growing dependence on India for help to build up its infrastructure, as well as for military training. Given Pakistan’s ability and willingness to halt overland trade as a political lever, more and more goods will reach Afghanistan via Iran.

With Iran, our relations have worsened over time due to our siding with Saudi Arabia in the Shia-Sunni conflict. There was a time when Iran was one of Pakistan’s closest friends and allies, but short-sighted policies and the desire to be on the right side of Riyadh have alienated Tehran.

As we grow more isolated, the chances of improved ties with India have grown ever more remote. Over the last decade, attitudes towards Pakistan in New Delhi have hardened; and we have delayed action against militant groups that have committed acts of terrorism in India.

So here we are, impoverished, alone and insecure in a hostile region. Our military needs increasing funds to fight the monsters created to further our regional agenda. If we want to emerge from this dead end, we will have to cast off the shackles of history.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rahulsidhu » 07 Apr 2018 18:48

Peregrine wrote:History’s shackles
American hardware supplies in the mid-1950s gave us a misplaced sense of military superiority, and our position on Kashmir hardened into rigid anti-India dogma. I recall my two-month attachment with a Punjab infantry battalion as a fresh civil servant in the late 1960s. When I mentioned the Indian army’s preponderance in numbers to the commanding officer, he answered in all seriousness that one Muslim soldier was equal to five Hindus.


:roll: :roll:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 07 Apr 2018 21:34

Rahulsidhu wrote:
Peregrine wrote:History’s shackles
American hardware supplies in the mid-1950s gave us a misplaced sense of military superiority, and our position on Kashmir hardened into rigid anti-India dogma. I recall my two-month attachment with a Punjab infantry battalion as a fresh civil servant in the late 1960s. When I mentioned the Indian army’s preponderance in numbers to the commanding officer, he answered in all seriousness that one Muslim soldier was equal to five Hindus.


:roll: :roll:


He is making that up. The official ratio is 1:10. :wink:

However our Army also has Muslims, in addition to Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Animists/Tribals, Atheist, etc so much of their advantage is cancelled out, even going by their messed up logic. :lol:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Apr 2018 01:26

Rahulsidhu wrote: :roll: :roll:
Peregrine wrote:History’s shacklesAmerican hardware supplies in the mid-1950s gave us a misplaced sense of military superiority, and our position on Kashmir hardened into rigid anti-India dogma. I recall my two-month attachment with a Punjab infantry battalion as a fresh civil servant in the late 1960s. When I mentioned the Indian army’s preponderance in numbers to the commanding officer, he answered in all seriousness that one Muslim soldier was equal to five Hindus.
Bart S wrote:He is making that up. The official ratio is 1:10. :wink:

However our Army also has Muslims, in addition to Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Animists/Tribals, Atheist, etc so much of their advantage is cancelled out, even going by their messed up logic. :lol:

Bart S Ji : A Word to the Wise - No matter what Ratio the Terroristanis use i.e. 1 : 5 or 1 : 10 or even 1 : Whatever in Every War with India - up to now Four Wars - the Terroristanis Always Get their Ar*es Whupped!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 08 Apr 2018 04:57

Country in danger of missing FY2018 growth target of 6pc; agriculture lags: SBP

The target was 6%?

The country is in danger of missing its 6 percent growth target in 2018 due to the poor performance of the agriculture sector that expected to grow at a more tepid pace than projected amid bad cotton crop and less wheat cultivation this season, the central bank said on Friday.
This assessment is primarily based on an expected shortfall of 2.5 million bales in cotton production
SBP warned that higher domestic fuel prices could drive up inflation in the coming months.
The overall fiscal deficit is likely to exceed the 4.1 percent of gross domestic product target for FY18
The overall current expenditures are also likely to remain high because of expected election-related spending


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/301399 ... e-lags-sbp

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 08 Apr 2018 05:11

Uh-oh!! Disturbing question:

Pakistan: a Chinese colony?

Beijing never remained in a position nor was it willing to fight Pakistan’s wars.
CPEC is now in its second phase
Pakistan seems very protective of the Chinese workforce.
The Chinese state, on its part, also seems overprotective of its nationals working in various capacities in this country.
To add insult to injury, the other day, a number of Chinese workers were filmed while assaulting certain personnel of the police that were stationed there in Noor Pur camp (Khanewal, Punjab) to provide security to these Chinese nationals.
At one point during the scuffle with the police, the country project manager, Xu Libing, stood arrogantly on the bonnet of the police van with the Pakistani flag visible beside his joggers and shorts.
I felt bad, humiliated and infuriated
Alas, it fell deep down into the canyon of egoistic arrogance and anger of the aforementioned Chinese workers.
these Chinese workers have been found to be in violation of various Pakistani laws according to police reports.
The police high-ups have termed five Chinese workers as ‘persona non grata’ and recommended their expulsion from Pakistan.
Chinese workers who, reportedly, wanted to be on their own so they could rendezvous with local prostitutes.
CPEC sceptics, who argue that it is China’s plan to colonise Pakistan.
“The party has just started. See what comes next.” (Abhi to "potty" shuru hui hai)
Pakistan’s sovereignty lies under the feet of the [Chinese] guy who sternly stood on the [police] van”.
a Chinese scholar on Pakistan blamed the (social) media, India and the US for exploiting the incident.
In his view, such police-civilian scuffle is a routine in China :eek: .
how many times has a Pakistani beat the Chinese police in China?
Being blinded by sheer arrogance and a sense of superiority, the Chinese may one day scuffle with the army too :rotfl:
if CPEC is not negotiated rationally and managed intelligently (big IF), and if Pakistan continues to enhance its dependency on Chinese weapons, capital, technology and workforce, the testable notions of the colonisation of Pakistan will get sufficient data in the years to come.


AoA!

https://dailytimes.com.pk/225183/pakist ... se-colony/


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