Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 08 Apr 2018 08:37

The hans have a lock on the pakis but they have never been nor are they capable of being a civilization capable of generosity.

The pakis thought that they were cleverly derisking ameriki aid by sidling up to the hans and playing off the hans against the amerikis but it seems that the hans had a very different take and the pakis did not see the gaping jaws of the han alligator until it was too late. CPEC is simply the inescapable manifestation of the han jaw clamping shut, teeth and all. They pakis never saw it coming.

The periodically revived spurning of the pakis by the amrekis has played right into the greedy hands of the hans. The han solution to every paki problem is a high value, high interest "loan" with a cleverly hidden collateral that is just like the tip of an iceberg.

The pakis are aware of all this as well as the conditional and extremely self interested help that the hans have always given to the pakis in return for a hugely disproportionate ROI.

Every "political" analyst is screaming this out loudly in every two bit paki news channel. It cannot be very edifying for the hans who are much concerned with "face" and are feeling insulted as to how they are losing this all important "face" in a dirt poor country like pukiland.

The utter bewilderment of the pakis who simply cannot understand or even cope with the fact as to why the major muslim ummah countries prefer India to the pakis, refuse to anoint and acknowledge the pakis as the undisputed leader of the ummah and most insulting of all, the refusal of the ummah to see the massive standing paki army and their "aatmi takat" as the undeniable and automatic reason for respect if not adulation from the very same ummah, is again very clear from their news channels. The pakis see this as their entitlement, if not as their rightful place as the undisputed head of the muslim universe itself.

Phata pyjamas always reveal much more than what they are supposed to cover. It the case of the pakis, they have already hocked their phata pyjamas a long time ago.

They peevishly claim that India has turned the tables on them because of it's huge "market" which is coveted by all the world. They fail to see the facts on the ground, where they have wilfully, maliciously and delibrately pissed away every chance given to them, every opportunity to make good as well as every chance to make peace.

Their grand delusions and their stupid misguided faith on their god given geography that apparently gives them a huge "advantage" in world affairs by straddling "vital trade routes".

Modern methods of communications, as well as transportation, simply negates much of such imagined "advantages". Container ships, bulk carriers and easy cargo transshipment by port hopping sea lines of trade and tailored trade routes have since replaced caravans and other romantic silk route era concepts.

The pakis seem to have no clue about how their long held but outmoded notions of geography, trade and strategic location is dying and why their economy has all but collapsed in these new world times.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Philip » 10 Apr 2018 11:53

A good clip being circulated with a Paki explaining to the anchors why Pak is what it is.Hasn't understood its geography and history.Benazir wanted to shift focus inwards , educate children and cooperate with global N- agreements, etc.Not look at the Taliban and say " how can we use them against India?"

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 10 Apr 2018 14:19

chetak wrote:The hans have a lock on the pakis but they have never been nor are they capable of being a civilization capable of generosity.

The pakis thought that they were cleverly derisking ameriki aid by sidling up to the hans and playing off the hans against the amerikis but it seems that the hans had a very different take and the pakis did not see the gaping jaws of the han alligator until it was too late. CPEC is simply the inescapable manifestation of the han jaw clamping shut, teeth and all. They pakis never saw it coming.

The periodically revived spurning of the pakis by the amrekis has played right into the greedy hands of the hans. The han solution to every paki problem is a high value, high interest "loan" with a cleverly hidden collateral that is just like the tip of an iceberg.

The pakis are aware of all this as well as the conditional and extremely self interested help that the hans have always given to the pakis in return for a hugely disproportionate ROI.

Every "political" analyst is screaming this out loudly in every two bit paki news channel. It cannot be very edifying for the hans who are much concerned with "face" and are feeling insulted as to how they are losing this all important "face" in a dirt poor country like pukiland.

The utter bewilderment of the pakis who simply cannot understand or even cope with the fact as to why the major muslim ummah countries prefer India to the pakis, refuse to anoint and acknowledge the pakis as the undisputed leader of the ummah and most insulting of all, the refusal of the ummah to see the massive standing paki army and their "aatmi takat" as the undeniable and automatic reason for respect if not adulation from the very same ummah, is again very clear from their news channels. The pakis see this as their entitlement, if not as their rightful place as the undisputed head of the muslim universe itself.

Phata pyjamas always reveal much more than what they are supposed to cover. It the case of the pakis, they have already hocked their phata pyjamas a long time ago.

They peevishly claim that India has turned the tables on them because of it's huge "market" which is coveted by all the world. They fail to see the facts on the ground, where they have wilfully, maliciously and delibrately pissed away every chance given to them, every opportunity to make good as well as every chance to make peace.

Their grand delusions and their stupid misguided faith on their god given geography that apparently gives them a huge "advantage" in world affairs by straddling "vital trade routes".

Modern methods of communications, as well as transportation, simply negates much of such imagined "advantages". Container ships, bulk carriers and easy cargo transshipment by port hopping sea lines of trade and tailored trade routes have since replaced caravans and other romantic silk route era concepts.

The pakis seem to have no clue about how their long held but outmoded notions of geography, trade and strategic location is dying and why their economy has all but collapsed in these new world times.


Brilliant summary of the state of affairs of Pakistan, worth archiving!

Pakistan is like what Americans would call a crack wh0re, living on the street it perpetual destitution because of it's addiction to crack cocaine (in Pakistan's case its obsession with, and hatred for, India). The Americans and British while exploiting Pakistan at least had a bit of a soft corner for her, the Chinese are cold blooded and rapacious and will exploit them without any moral constraints, shared history or conscience to hold them back.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 10 Apr 2018 22:38

Philip wrote:A good clip being circulated with a Paki explaining to the anchors why Pak is what it is.Hasn't understood its geography and history.Benazir wanted to shift focus inwards , educate children and cooperate with global N- agreements, etc.Not look at the Taliban and say " how can we use them against India?"


Sir ji,

IMHO, aunty benazir was two faced.

She ran with the hare and also hunted with the hounds.

Indians are fascinated with a pretty face and so they swallowed whole what ever BS she spouted without ever subjecting it to the standard smell test.

She also had very protective friends in the Indian presstitute media whom she assiduously cultivated, wined and dined and generally kept in very good humor.

She cunningly used her oxford connections to leverage her lootyens connections in the dilli's paki pasand, power broking ecosystem which always guaranteed her a good press and easy access.

She was always going to be her crooked father's daughter onlee, this particular paki apple not falling far from the rotten zulfikar tree and all that.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 11 Apr 2018 04:41

I have a strong feeling that pakis will again turn into super power defeater. They will embrace the python grip of chinese, and then use American/Indian help to get rid of them and save the day for world, as they "supposedly" did with USSR, through terror export into china, terrorist acts against chinese workers/assets (railway etc) in pakistan and repudiation of debt. US is playing this game of receding and letting china take control of pakistan to justify the end game. As always pakis will do whatever for anyone who funds them for next quarter/year against India. They wanted to fight India.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Hari Seldon » 11 Apr 2018 09:44

Meanwhile in Trumpistan...

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Apr 2018 15:02

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

SBP allows Bank of China to settle transactions in yuan

KARACHI: The central bank on Wednesday granted Bank of China permission to establish yuan settlement and clearing mechanism in a major step to encourage trade with Chinese currency and eventually in the respective local currencies.

This move could further bolster the size of trade and investment with China under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

“In order to further strengthen the trade channels and remittance flows in Chinese yuan, SBP has now allowed Bank of China (BoC) Pakistan to establish a local yuan settlement and clearing setup in Pakistan,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in a statement.

“BoC can open yuan accounts of the banks operating in Pakistan, to facilitate settlement of yuan-based transactions such as remittance to/from China. BoC can also provide yuan liquidity to the interbank market for the settlement of yuan-based transactions.”

The SBP expects this settlement and clearing mechanism to reduce costs and increase efficiency for the local banking system in transacting in Chinese yuan, enhance market liquidity and facilitate settlement of growing trade and investment transactions between China and Pakistan in the said currency.

“Keeping in view the recent local and global economic developments, SBP expects this initiative to yield long-term benefits to China-Pakistan relationship in general, and Pakistan’s economy and banking system in particular,” it said.

SBP signed a currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China with the objective of promoting bilateral trade and financing direct investment between the two countries in the respective local currencies.

It is worth noting that back in 2015 SBP had allowed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (ICBC) Pakistan to offer similar services.

“This is a good thing that the central bank has done. This is going to reduce pressure on demand for dollars because trade deficit with China is contributing significantly to widening of the current account deficit,” said Dr Ashfaque H Khan, dean at NUST School of Social Sciences.

“With this measure, it will help reduce current account deficit as well which will further reduce our financing requirement, going forward.”

The SBP has continuously been taking policy measures to ensure that imports, exports and financing transactions with China can be denominated in yuan.

A currency swap agreement between the two countries was signed in 2011. The swap arrangement became operational in 2013 with a size of Chinese yuan 10 billion and Rs140 billion ($1.5 billion).

The country’s bilateral trade deficit with China widened to $12 billion in the fiscal year 2016/17 from $4 billion in 2012/13.

Pakistan's imports from China jumped to $14.13 billion in FY17 against $12.11 billion in the previous year. However, the exports stood at $1.5 billion in FY17, compared with $1.7 billion in FY16.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 12 Apr 2018 15:51

X Posted from the OBOR to the CPEC and Pakistan Stress Watch threads.

Financial Times, UK on IMF’s head warning that BRI / OBOR could cause a debt trap for countries conned by the Peoples Republic of China into joining the scheme.

Note that the FT article mentions that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan had been classified by a report last month by the Washington based Centre for Global Development as one among a group eight countries on the BRI routes who may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China. Maldives is another:

IMF’s Lagarde warns China on Belt and Road debt
Balance of payments risks seen for recipients of infrastructure finance

Charles Clover in Beijing 5 HOURS AGO Print this page24

The International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde warned Chinese policymakers on Thursday to beware of financing unneeded and unsustainable projects in countries with heavy debt burdens.

Ms Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, told a conference in Beijing that while China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could provide much-needed infrastructure, “ventures can also lead to a problematic increase in debt, potentially limiting other spending as debt service rises, and creating balance of payments challenges”.

Beijing’s multibillion-dollar initiative, seen as the underpinning of a new Silk Road linking China to the world, is providing welcome finance to countries from east and central Asia to Europe and Africa for roads and other projects, but it has also been criticised for burdening recipients of the funds with debt.

The IMF also unveiled its first efforts to support the BRI, and Ms Lagarde announced the opening of a joint IMF-China Capacity Development Centre, which will help train Chinese development officials to work abroad. The first classes began in the city of Dalian last month.

The project is aimed at providing IMF support for the BRI, Beijing’s key foreign development initiative launched five years ago, which foresees hundreds of billions of dollars in development and infrastructure finance and is currently aimed at about 70 countries.

IMF encouragement has met with scepticism in some western countries, such as the US, which question whether the development effort masks a push by China to gain influence in Eurasia and Africa.

The issue of debt is also the crux of a debate within economic development circles over how to best handle the rise in Chinese investment in many countries with fragile economies.

According to a report last month by the Washington Centre for Global Development, eight countries on the BRI routes may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China, including Pakistan, Djibouti, Maldives and Laos. The study found 23 countries to be a “at risk of debt distress today” due to Belt and Road borrowing.

In a nod to these criticisms, Ms Lagarde said: “In countries where public debt is already high, careful management of financing terms is critical.”

Another challenge, she added, was “ensuring that Belt and Road only travels where it is needed” — an oblique reference to problems of insider dealing. “With any large-scale spending there is sometimes the temptation to take advantage of the selection and bidding process” she said.

Chinese officials have been keen to gain the imprimatur of the IMF and other established development agencies as seals of approval for the BRI.

“Ensuring debt sustainability [is] very important,” said Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, in a speech welcoming Ms Lagarde to Beijing. However, he said it was just as important to consider “how to expand domestic infrastructure investment and how to improve public investment while taking full advantage of external resources”.

Developing countries have welcomed the Chinese approach — saying they often chafe at stringent IMF conditions on debt management that mean needed infrastructure must be delayed.

“The IMF conditions mean low growth” said one African official attending the conference in Thursday, who asked that his name and country not be mentioned “When you talk about debt sustainability, that also means low growth. It’s about finding a right balance.”

China has agreed to contribute $50m over five years to an IMF effort to train officials in China and in several other countries, including many in Africa.

In addition to announcing the IMF-China training centre, Ms Lagarde lauded an effort to bring BRI decision-making under the umbrella of a newly created International Development Cooperation Agency, which is to be in charge of China’s foreign aid.

Financial Times, UK

The report titled “Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective” by John Hurley, Scott Morris, and Gailyn Portelance for the Washington based Centre for Global Development in which the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Maldives had been classified as one among a group of eight countries on the BRI routes who may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China is available here:

Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Apr 2018 22:58

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Dollar and oil may get more expensive next month in Pakistan: ADB

Pakistan is likely to see a rise in the price of the dollar and oil next month. This increase in prices will result in more inflation occurring in the country.

The Asian Development Bank said this in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018 report. Its outlook for the GDP for this financial year in Pakistan is expected to be 5.6%. It may possibly drop to 5.1%.

Pakistan’s foreign debt will rise and the country’s current account deficit is likely to hamper its economic growth, claims the report.

The report says that the regulatory duty failed in decreasing imports in the country. Pakistan witnessed an increase in imports, especially of electronic appliances, cars and machinery.

ADB Country Director for Pakistan Xiaohong Yang advised the country to increase its exports to boost its economy.

“Pakistan’s economic prospects in the coming years remain positive if the budget and current account deficits are reduced and exports are rejuvenated by improving the country’s competitiveness,” he said.

The report said that the current account deficit is likely to increase because of spillover from higher investment expenditure.

“Therefore, securing adequate financing to fill the gap in foreign exchange reserve is an additional challenge.”

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 13 Apr 2018 08:52

Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank of the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan decline for the 17th successive week.

It would have been good to also know what the foreign exchange reserves were net of swap liabilities given that the IMF has disclosed about a month back that foreign exchange reserves net of swap liabilities were Negative USD 724 Million:

Foreign exchange: SBP's reserves dip another $164m, now stand at $11.4b

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Apr 2018 02:33

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Govt to pay $3.3bn in debt servicing by June

ISLAMABAD: State Mini­ster for Finance and Revenue Rana Mohammad Afzal said on Thursday that his government has to pay back $3.3 billion on account of debt servicing by end June 2018.

Mr Rana was one of the speakers of a pre-budget seminar at the National Press Club. He was accompanied by former fina­nce secretary Dr Waqar Mas­ood Khan and former chai­rman Federal Board of Reve­nue Dr Mohammad Irshad.

“We have not defaulted on debt servicing in the last five years,” he said. The state minister, however, clarified that his government will borrow money from the market. He acknowleged that his government was facing the problems of rising budget deficit and falling reserves.

Mr Rana said that all these problems are the outcome of the government’s growth-foc­u­­sed strategy which will be maintained in the upcoming budget as well. No new taxes will be introduced in the bud­get and no ambitious tax target will be announced, he added.

He defended the tax amnesty scheme and hoped it will give window to those people who want to invest their money in Pakistan. He said government expects the amnesty scheme will encourage flows of money into the country which will help curtail the rising budget deficit.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 14 Apr 2018 17:22

Everybody's eyes are now on Pakistan's balance of payments situation, and this is being used as an example of the destructive effects of CPEC/OBOR.

For this reason alone, I don't think the Chinese will let Pak slide into default. I think the next loan tranche from the Chinese will be at a very reasonable rate of interest. In other words, at this point in time, the Chinese have more to lose with Pak defaulting than the Pakis themselves.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 15 Apr 2018 00:48

yensoy wrote:Everybody's eyes are now on Pakistan's balance of payments situation, and this is being used as an example of the destructive effects of CPEC/OBOR.

For this reason alone, I don't think the Chinese will let Pak slide into default. I think the next loan tranche from the Chinese will be at a very reasonable rate of interest. In other words, at this point in time, the Chinese have more to lose with Pak defaulting than the Pakis themselves.


I think Chinese will see this as an opportunity to go for kill and double down on slicing Paki Donkey for yummy protein extraction .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 15 Apr 2018 00:52

yensoy wrote:Everybody's eyes are now on Pakistan's balance of payments situation, and this is being used as an example of the destructive effects of CPEC/OBOR.

For this reason alone, I don't think the Chinese will let Pak slide into default. I think the next loan tranche from the Chinese will be at a very reasonable rate of interest. In other words, at this point in time, the Chinese have more to lose with Pak defaulting than the Pakis themselves.


Win-win for India and the US. One, if not both get screwed. And the US finally found someone to palm off the aging crackwh0re to. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chanakyaa » 17 Apr 2018 18:59


chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 18 Apr 2018 12:03

Bart S wrote:
yensoy wrote:Everybody's eyes are now on Pakistan's balance of payments situation, and this is being used as an example of the destructive effects of CPEC/OBOR.

For this reason alone, I don't think the Chinese will let Pak slide into default. I think the next loan tranche from the Chinese will be at a very reasonable rate of interest. In other words, at this point in time, the Chinese have more to lose with Pak defaulting than the Pakis themselves.


Win-win for India and the US. One, if not both get screwed. And the US finally found someone to palm off the aging crackwh0re to. :rotfl:


whether the hans "help" the pakis or not, both of them would have learned some pretty unforgettable lessons, the hans, more than the scamming pakis.

The scheming hans and the scamming pakis are both exposed in full view on an international stage.

Couldn't be better for India, who along with the rest of the world, will be watching the street fight between the pimp and his thieving whore.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 19 Apr 2018 17:17

Grandiose claims of the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan having solved the electricity load shedding problem turns out like other claims of the Islamic Republic to be porcine excrement.


Jan 25th 2018:

Ended load-shedding under leadership of Nawaz, says Shehbaz Sharif

April 12, 2018:

Power outages continue in 80pc areas of Lesco

April 17, 2018:

Country’s 60pc feeders observing 12 hours load-shedding: sources

April 19, 2018:

Load-shedding continues unabated in Karachi

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Apr 2018 15:23

shiv wrote:Ok I found some figures - but this does not include imported cars like BMW/Merc
In general car sales increase steadily from 2002 to 2007 but then showed a downturn in 2008
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14487696/Paki ... e-Industry
ANALYSIS OF PAKISTANI INDUSTRY
FINAL REPORT - PRESENT SITUATION OF CAR INDUSTRY:

Still - figures for Merc/BMW/Audi would indicate just how well or badly the richest in Pakistan have been doing.
Shiv Ji :

Pakistani Government Web Site ONLY HAS A PAGE OF "FOREIGN MADE AUTOS" Imorted into the Country.

However the Pakistani Finance Ministry Web site http://www.finance .gov.pk is "Down".

The pertinent Web Address does give the Number of Foreign Cars "Imported" but does not detailed figures by models.

BTW : 90% OF CARS IMPORTED BY PAKISTAN ARE USED CARS!
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Apr 2018 16:02

Shiv Ji :

Hope these Figures will be of help :

Pakistan Economic Survey

TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATION

13.3 Number of Motor Vehicles Registered Page - 160

13.4 Number of LCV Registered - Page 161

13.4 Motor Vehicles on Road HCV - Page 161

13.5 Motor Vehicles Production – Page 162

13.6 Motor Vehicles Import - 163

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 20 Apr 2018 16:14

Shiv ji:

This might be of some help.... the download is an excel file (do check for viruses :) )

Link - PAMA - Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association - Monthly Products and Sales Data - July 2007 to June 2017 (Month Wise Data)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 20 Apr 2018 19:39

Stock exchange decries exorbitant tax on corporates

The average rate of tax in the Asian region is 20.05 per cent. Among other major economies, tax rate on corporates in Europe is a low 18.35pc, while the global average works out to 22.96pc.
While the normal tax rate on corporate profits is 30pc, due to multiplicity of taxes, the real rate of tax is incredibly high. Amin Tai, one of the most senior brokers at the Exchange asks to add up the following: workers’ participation fund at 5pc, workers welfare fund 2pc, and super tax at 3pc, which makes a tally of 40pc.
The companies must also cough up tax on dividends and they are left with only half of what they earn.
Arif Habib, the former chairman of the bourse, concurs that the aggregate tax rates for corporates is alarmingly high.
Mr Habib also laments the high cost of production which despite higher sales, leaves little that travels to the bottom line, rendering local products uncompetitive against other countries, particularly in the exportable goods segment.
“Electricity costs are 50pc higher in Pakistan and gas prices almost twice the costs in other regional countries”


https://www.dawn.com/news/1401808/stock ... corporates

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Apr 2018 16:42

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Govt injected $7b to keep rupee overvalued in recent years

ISLAMABAD: The PML-N government has pumped $7 billion into defending the overvalued rupee against the US dollar in recent years, claimed a member of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) while seeking action against the people responsible for the spending.

Neither State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Tariq Bajwa nor Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Miftah Ismail contested the claim made by Dr Abid Hasan during an EAC meeting held early this month, a member of the EAC confided to The Express Tribune. Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi chaired the meeting.

Bajwa was said to have affirmed the claim made by Hasan, officials said. Bajwa is currently in the United States and could not be approached for comments.

The EAC member questioned the rationale of pumping $7 billion in the last couple of years to defend a policy that according to him caused more damage, said sources in the EAC. It is believed that the money that the central bank threw in the market was borrowed.

The central bank’s support for the rupee came before the government’s decision to finally let the currency depreciate against the US dollar by around 10% in two rounds since December 2017.

Former finance minister Ishaq Dar was a strong proponent of an overvalued exchange rate due to the negative implications of depreciation for inflation and the country’s mounting public debt.

Dar had got acting SBP governor Riaz Riazuddin removed after he let the rupee depreciate by about 3.4% in July last year. Subsequently, Dar appointed Bajwa as the SBP governor to keep the rupee strong.

However, after Dar’s exit, the SBP let the rupee weaken twice, bringing it closer to its real value.

Officials said Hasan, a former country director of the World Bank, asked the prime minister that somebody should be held responsible for executing a flawed exchange rate policy.

The SBP chief spokesman did not respond to request for comments. Hasan also declined to comment.

During four and a half years, the PML-N government has acquired gross foreign loans of $41 billion. If one goes by Hasan’s statement, 17% of the loans were consumed only in defending the exchange rate.

The inflation-adjusted exchange rate actually appreciated by almost 19% from 2014-15 to 2016-17, said a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report. According to the IMF, gross international reserves had declined due to “limited exchange rate flexibility”.

In 2013, one US dollar was equal to Rs98.70. Before the rupee weakened to its current value of Rs115.70, it had shed only 6.2% in the first four years of the government. In the past four months, the rupee fell about 10%.

The IMF noted in its report that due to the stagnant value of the rupee, the change in public debt was only 0.5% in 2016. There was no effect of the exchange rate on public debt in 2017 as Dar kept the rate unchanged.

Opponents of the rigid exchange rate policy argued that it adversely affected country’s exports and foreign currency reserves.

In its post-programme monitoring report, the IMF said Pakistan’s net international reserves were negative $724 million by February 15 of the current year against positive $7.5 billion at the expiry of the IMF programme in September 2016. This was the period when the central bank pumped reserves into the market.

The IMF said maintaining a largely stable nominal exchange rate amid mounting external pressure had led to the loss of international reserves. Despite significant external borrowing by the government, the SBP’s gross reserves declined from $18.5 billion at the end of the IMF programme to $11.4 billion.

However, there was also some merit in keeping the exchange rate stable. After the depreciation, the public debt jumped by about Rs700 billion without even borrowing a single dollar. This also pushed the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 70.1% and about 2% of it was because of the depreciation.

The external debt-to-GDP ratio was sensitive mostly to the current account and exchange rate shocks. Because of these shocks, the external debt ratio could exceed 45% under the real depreciation shock scenario, according to the IMF report.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 29 Apr 2018 15:18

Another $1 billion loan makes its way from China

They are desperately trying to pump up their reserves, with Taller Than Mountain friends, at 'friendship interest rates'... :roll:
Chinese financial institutions have so far given $2.2 billion to Pakistan to help the country steer through difficult times. Earlier, the ICBB gave $1 billion at three-month floating interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 3.02%.


But, still just pushing the can down the road...
Independent economists predict that Pakistan will return to the IMF by September or October this year, as it cannot sustain the external account pressure without combined support of the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 May 2018 22:22

X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

Market watch: KSE-100 continues to bleed, ends below 45,200

KARACHI: The KSE-100 continued to lose ground on Wednesday as index-heavy automobile, cement and bank stocks plummeted with most closing in the red.

Uncertainty on the political and economic fronts contributed to the negative sentiment, dragging the index below the 45,200 level.

At close, the benchmark KSE-100 Index finished with a decrease of 292.49 points or 0.64% to settle at 45,196.37.

JS Research’s Maaz Mulla said the bearish trend can be attributed to political uncertainty surrounding upcoming general elections.

“Uncertainty continues to haunt investors,” said Mulla in a market-close comment. “On the economic front, CPI inflation clocked in at 3.68% YoY for April-2018 as compared to 3.25% last month. Traded volumes plunged by 47% day-on-day to 131 million shares, while value traded dropped to $45 million.

“Major heavyweights namely HBL (-1.86%), UBL (-2.05%), OGDC (-0.97%), Lucky Cement (-1.19%) and ENGRO (-1.00%) cumulatively contributed a negative 155 points to the index.

“BYCO (-1.20%), from the refinery sector, declared its 9-month result for FY18, where the company posted consolidated EPS of Rs0.51, with no cash payout. Mixed sentiments were witnessed in the cement sector where Lucky Cement (-1.19%) and DG Khan Cement (-0.82%) closed negative, while on the flipside Cherat Cement Company Limited (+1.22%) and Fauji Cement Company Limited (+0.35%) closed positive.

“We expect market to exhibit volatility in the coming sessions due to overall political ambiguities.” He added.

Shares of 371 companies were traded. At the end of the day, 120 stocks closed higher, 230 declined while 21 remained unchanged. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs8.6 billion.

Lotte Chemicals was the volume leader with 15.1 million shares, gaining Rs0.39 to close at Rs11.66. It was followed by Bank of Punjab with 14.4 million shares, losing Rs0.25 to close at Rs12.21 and Bank Alfalah with 10.8 million shares, gaining Rs0.11 to close at Rs51.98.

Overall, trading volumes decreased to 131 million shares compared with Monday’s tally of 249 million.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Rs142 million worth of shares during the trading session, according to data compiled by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 03 May 2018 22:29

IMF sees mounting risks, sharp drop in growth for Pakistan next year

The International Monetary Fund projected on Wednesday that Pakistan’s growth will moderate to 4.7 per cent in fiscal year 2019 from 5.6pc (if you believe the 5.6% figure, that is) in 2018.
“an increase in macroeconomic vulnerabilities and domestic policy slippages have weakened Pakistan’s economic outlook, with growth now projected to moderate to 4.7pc in FY19”
The government has targeted 6.2pc growth for next year in its latest budget.
Pakistan is also placed among the countries where upcoming elections and a more challenging political environment could slow the reform process.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1405303/imf-s ... -next-year

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 May 2018 00:07

dhyana wrote:Another $1 billion loan makes its way from China

They are desperately trying to pump up their reserves, with Taller Than Mountain friends, at 'friendship interest rates'... :roll:
Chinese financial institutions have so far given $2.2 billion to Pakistan to help the country steer through difficult times. Earlier, the ICBB gave $1 billion at three-month floating interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 3.02%.
But, still just pushing the can down the road...
Independent economists predict that Pakistan will return to the IMF by September or October this year, as it cannot sustain the external account pressure without combined support of the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
dhyana Ji :

Herewith latest Foreign Reserves "Up-Date" from SBP :

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US$ BILLIONS

FUDGED FIGURES : 27-04-18 - SBP : 11.5103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 17.7129

ACTUAL FIGURES: 27-04-18 - SBP : 05.7103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 12.9129

NOTE : The SBP has taken a "LOAN" of US$ 5.8 Billion from the Commercial Banks but the FUDGED FIGURES show the US$ 5.8 Billion Loan both in the SBP as well as Commercial Banks Accounts!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 04 May 2018 09:23

X Posting Echendee aka H&D aka Honour & Dignity destroying news item from the Bangladesh News and Discussion thread to the Terroristan and Pakistan Economic Stress Watch threads.

Bangladesh does not have a “regional game changer” :lol: like CPEC aka the Conning Pakistan to Enrich China aka China Pakistan Economic Corridor to talk brag endlessly about nor indulgent john’s like the United States of America and the Peoples Republic of China, but they are doing a fine job in rapidly closing the per capita income gap created by the years of neo-colonial economic exploitation they as erstwhile East Pakistani’s were subject to by their fellow Momin Mohammaddens of the Punjabi Uniformed Jihadi Dominated Deep State of the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Ridding Bangladesh of the Mughal grandeur aspiring economic leeches of the Punjabi Uniformed Jihadi Dominated Deep State of the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan can be chalked down as one the many dividends of India’s liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 8) .

Bangladesh, once a ‘hopeless’ economy, is leaving Pakistan behind, says Kaushik Basu

The Op-Ed by Kaushik Basu which the Financial Express cites from the Brookings website:

Why is Bangladesh booming?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 04 May 2018 23:57

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... b096fdff53
What Is China Doing To Pakistan? The Same Thing It Did To Sri Lanka
Panos Mourdoukoutas , CONTRIBUTOR

One day, China will turn Pakistan into its own “semi-colony,” as it did recently with Sri Lanka.
China has been nice to Pakistan, on the surface that is. It has been building the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will connect Western China with the Indian Ocean, provided of course that India will allow it. That could certainly benefit Pakistan, helping the country make a big step forward, from an emerging to a mature economy, creating a lot of jobs in the process. But it could hurt Pakistan, too. Like adding to Pakistan’s corruption, which keeps pushing the costs of the project higher by the day, making Pakistan more indebted to China, which has been financing the project. Rising indebtedness comes at a time when the country is already living beyond its means, as evidenced by persistent current account deficits, government debt, and external debt.
....
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves and foreign capital flows are falling, making it increasing likely that Pakistan will seek to reschedule its debt to China. Perhaps, by swapping debt with equity, which in essence will handle CPEC to Beijing. That’s the model China applied in rescheduling Sri Lanka’s debt, turning the country’s Hambantota port officially into China’s own port, for 99 years. That’s according to a landmark agreement signed early last year, which gives China Merchants Ports Holdings—an arm of the Chinese government—70% stake in the Indian Ocean’s prominent outpost.
....
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 05 May 2018 13:09

twitter


Combined market cap of 575 companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange (earlier known as Karachi Stock Exchange) is $87b, less than the market cap of a single Indian company TCS ($100b). That's the cost of sponsoring terrorism. (Combined market cap of NSE? $1,630b)

62 replies 1,013 retweets 1,823 likes

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 05 May 2018 15:18

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/04/15/what-is-china-doing-to-pakistan-the-same-thing-it-did-to-sri-lanka/#3ab096fdff53
What Is China Doing To Pakistan? The Same Thing It Did To Sri Lanka
Panos Mourdoukoutas , CONTRIBUTOR

One day, China will turn Pakistan into its own “semi-colony,” as it did recently with Sri Lanka.


This would the best thing to happen. Need the Chinese fully involved in Pak like a colony. Chinis think they are smart. Hope they realize, snake charming is not one of their traditional skills.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby darshhan » 05 May 2018 21:06

nam wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/04/15/what-is-china-doing-to-pakistan-the-same-thing-it-did-to-sri-lanka/#3ab096fdff53
What Is China Doing To Pakistan? The Same Thing It Did To Sri Lanka
Panos Mourdoukoutas , CONTRIBUTOR

One day, China will turn Pakistan into its own “semi-colony,” as it did recently with Sri Lanka.


This would the best thing to happen. Need the Chinese fully involved in Pak like a colony. Chinis think they are smart. Hope they realize, snake charming is not one of their traditional skills.


There is an old saying which states that oversmart dogs end up eating shit. This is exactly what is gonna happen to chinese.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 06 May 2018 14:49

Peregrine wrote:Herewith latest Foreign Reserves "Up-Date" from SBP :

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US$ BILLIONS

FUDGED FIGURES : 27-04-18 - SBP : 11.5103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 17.7129

ACTUAL FIGURES: 27-04-18 - SBP : 05.7103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 12.9129

NOTE : The SBP has taken a "LOAN" of US$ 5.8 Billion from the Commercial Banks but the FUDGED FIGURES show the US$ 5.8 Billion Loan both in the SBP as well as Commercial Banks Accounts!


I think I've also read somewhere that the SBP itself stated in Parliament that they are unsure of exact breakdown of CPEC funding wrt concessionary loan rates vs higher rates, etc.

Just a small pooch. Who is smoking what in the Land of the Pure?

Surely these shenanigans wouldn't pass muster with the IMF, World Bank, or other worthies. Are the economic wizards in Islamabad truly that stupid that this will actually work? Or is it really just a game to delude the common abdul until the elections are over?

Which probably wouldn't be surprising at all, and fits in with the Failed Banana Republic model of government. In that case, this nonsense- and the resulting chaos- should suit India just fine.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 May 2018 15:40

Peregrine wrote:Herewith latest Foreign Reserves "Up-Date" from SBP :

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN US$ BILLIONS

FUDGED FIGURES : 27-04-18 - SBP : 11.5103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 17.7129

ACTUAL FIGURES: 27-04-18 - SBP : 05.7103 - COMMERCIAL BANKS : 6.2026 - TOTAL RESERVES 12.9129

NOTE : The SBP has taken a "LOAN" of US$ 5.8 Billion from the Commercial Banks but the FUDGED FIGURES show the US$ 5.8 Billion Loan both in the SBP as well as Commercial Banks Accounts!
dhyana wrote:I think I've also read somewhere that the SBP itself stated in Parliament that they are unsure of exact breakdown of CPEC funding wrt concessionary loan rates vs higher rates, etc.

Surely these shenanigans wouldn't pass muster with the IMF, World Bank, or other worthies. Are the economic wizards in Islamabad truly that stupid that this will actually work? Or is it really just a game to delude the common abdul until the elections are over?

Which probably wouldn't be surprising at all, and fits in with the Failed Banana Republic model of government. In that case, this nonsense- and the resulting chaos- should suit India just fine.

dhyana Ji :

I draw your attention to my Post of 30 Mar 2018 14:26 on Page 44 of this Thread wherein I have posted the following Article :
Peregrine wrote:09-12-2017 : After debt repayments in coming months, SBP’s own net reserves will be a mere $4.5 billion

It states : "Usable foreign currency reserves available with all commercial banks have slid to a mere $200 million, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has swished away $5.8 billion as short-term loans in an attempt to give an artificial sense of stability to the currency market.

So Sirji, with their penchant for "accommodating" the Failed Banana Republic model of government of Terroristan, I will not be surprised if these shenanigans - you refer to - are devised and officially sanctioned by the IMF, World Bank, or other worthies who specialize in the Trade of Practicing Economic Hit Men!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 12 May 2018 07:15

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/05/11/pakistan-to-secure-another-2-bn-from-china-to-support-reserves/

...the government has planned to secure another $2 billion through the agreed short-term loan of $1 billion and another one billion through Panda bond.


The ever depleting foreign reserves have slipped to $11 billion which included to $5 to $6 billion of net reserves. The reserves, experts claim, will be able to cater the import bill of less than a month against the mandatory reserves worth three months’ import bill.


A slightly more 'honest' article, I guess. But even here, their 'Net' reserves seems to have a Fake quality to them.

IMHO, I think they need to sell off their gold in order shore up their finances. Alas, they have too little of the shiny stuff to make much of a dent...

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gold-reserves

From the above source, seems like they have about 64 tonnes. At the current price of gold, this is < $3B. Too bad.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 May 2018 19:22

dyana Ji :

Your above Post of 12 May 2018 07:15

The Great Fudge being carried out by the Terroristani SBP has been explained in my Post of 30 Mar 2018 14:26

09-12-2017 : After debt repayments in coming months, SBP’s own net reserves will be a mere $4.5 billion

As such the LATEST real position of Terroristan Reserves on 04-05-2018 which is as follows IN US$ BILLIONS :

FUDGED RESERVES : SBP : 11.1627 - COMM BANKS : 6.1237 – TOTAL : 17.2864

ACTUAL RESERVES : SBP : 05.3627 – COMM BANKS : 6.1237 – TOTAL : 11.4864

The Fudged Reserves of SBP contain a Loan of US$ 5.8 Billion from the Commercial Banks for Two to Three Months but this Loan Amount should be DEDUCTED from the SBP Reserves or that the Commercial Banks' Reserves to show the Actual Picture of US$ 11.4864 Billion.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 May 2018 14:48

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Market bloodbath as KSE-100 plunges 1,054 points in intra-day trading

KARACHI: The KSE-100 plunged 1,054 points in intra-day trading on Monday, looking set for its biggest fall in 2018, as market fundamentals were ignored to make way for panic-induced selling.

Political uncertainty stemming from ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s comments on the Mumbai attacks and its trial proceedings caused investors to dump and run as the benchmark fell near the 42,540-point level, a retreat of 2.4%.

Stocks across the board landed deep in the red as soon as trading began, and continued to witness selling pressure with panic taking over at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

The index, which has already been the subject of a bearish run in the last few weeks over political as well as economic uncertainty, bore the brunt of Nawaz’s statement over the Mumbai attacks, said analysts.

“There is a lot of uncertainty and much more because of the fallout on the statement,” Samiullah Tariq, director research at Arif Habib Limited, told The Express Tribune. “Economic indicators are worrying as well.

“Right now, we don’t know the future outcomes of many things – be it the caretaker government, the elections.”

A meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) was also held on Monday to discuss the situation in the wake of Nawaz’s statements. A statement issued after the meeting termed the three-time prime minister’s statement as incorrect and misleading.

While NSC’s stance on the statement was clear, the possibility of a further fallout could not be ruled out.

“There could be further selling in the market. We don’t know what the upcoming days have in store on the political front. We don’t know the final solution to this.”

Closing Figure : 42681.25

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 May 2018 15:28

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Market bloodbath as KSE-100 plunges 1,054 points in intra-day trading

KARACHI: The KSE-100 plunged 1,054 points in intra-day trading on Monday, looking set for its biggest fall in 2018, as market fundamentals were ignored to make way for panic-induced selling.

Political uncertainty stemming from ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s comments on the Mumbai attacks and its trial proceedings caused investors to dump and run as the benchmark fell near the 42,540-point level, a retreat of 2.4%.

Stocks across the board landed deep in the red as soon as trading began, and continued to witness selling pressure with panic taking over at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

The index, which has already been the subject of a bearish run in the last few weeks over political as well as economic uncertainty, bore the brunt of Nawaz’s statement over the Mumbai attacks, said analysts.

“There is a lot of uncertainty and much more because of the fallout on the statement,” Samiullah Tariq, director research at Arif Habib Limited, told The Express Tribune. “Economic indicators are worrying as well.

“Right now, we don’t know the future outcomes of many things – be it the caretaker government, the elections.”

A meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) was also held on Monday to discuss the situation in the wake of Nawaz’s statements. A statement issued after the meeting termed the three-time prime minister’s statement as incorrect and misleading.

While NSC’s stance on the statement was clear, the possibility of a further fallout could not be ruled out.

“There could be further selling in the market. We don’t know what the upcoming days have in store on the political front. We don’t know the final solution to this.”

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 18 May 2018 05:10


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 18 May 2018 08:56

Double Dhamaka economic news from the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan dateline May 17, 2018.

:wink: When are the Taller than Himalayas, Deeper than Indian Ocean, Sweeter than Honey, As Close as Lips to Teeth, Stronger than Steel, Iron Brother of the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Peoples Republic China, going to handover a bankers cheque for USD 100 Billion as eidi aka eidia in recognition of the geostrategic location of the Islami Atmi Taqat besides role in Regional Game Changer CPEC?

First, Pakistan’s external debt soars to record $91.8b:

Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities have soared to a record $91.8 billion, showing an increase of over 50% or nearly $31 billion in the past four years and nine months, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reported.

The external debt and liabilities of $91.8 billion as of March-end suggest that the figure may touch $100 billion very soon as the country faces grave challenges in meeting growing external financing requirements. Pakistan is scheduled to make some bullet debt and interest payments in the last quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year, according to sources in the finance ministry. ………….

Clicky


Second, Foreign exchange: SBP's reserves plunge 3.26% to $10.8b :

On May 11, foreign currency reserves held by the central bank were recorded at $10,798.9 million, down $364.1 million or 3.26% compared with $11,163 million in the previous week.

The SBP gave no reason for the decline in reserves.

Overall, liquid foreign reserves held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $17,067 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $6,268.1 million. ………………..

[b]Clicky

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 18 May 2018 11:34

Iran will go nuclear, Saudi will want to follow suit - buying from and propping up Pakistan.


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