Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2018 01:09

Neshant wrote:China has already factored in Pakistan's "debt forgiveness" ahead of time by jacking up the price of OBOR infrastructure 3 fold when presenting Pakistan the bill.

Watch soon how China "forgives" some of Pakistan's OBOR debt - which was a result of massive over-billing to begin with.

Whatever amount is forgiven however will be extracted in maintenance costs spanning decades.
This since all suppliers for OBOR related infrastructure are in China and the host country cannot fully upkeep OBOR infrastructure without China.

Only Chinese construction & supply firms have benefited from OBOR.

None of the routes are profitable now nor will ever be in the foreseeable future.

China already knew this prior to hyping OBOR as easy money to the host country to induce them into heavy debt.
That and the (fake) promise of moving tons of manufacturing jobs from China to the host country if they built OBOR infrastructure - which is turning out to be a total lie.

You can identify the dumb nations of the world by how quickly they fell for that line.
Neshant Ji :

I refer you to the following Article :

Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to? - By Nadia Naviwala // 24 August 2017

1. What Pakistan owes for the next 30 years will be calculated in dollars frozen at the 2013 exchange rate of 97.10 rupees to $1. (The current exchange rate is 105 rupees to $1.) - Today 16-09-2018 the Rate is US$ 1 = Rs. 125!

2. Tom Miller, author of “China’s Asian Dream,” has said that Chinese officials privately admit that they expect to lose up to 80 percent of their investment in Pakistan.

3. In Addition : The Gwadar Port Disillusion - MEI XINYU

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Neshant » 17 Sep 2018 08:28

Thanks for the links Peregrine.

The way the guy puts it in the first article, Pakistan has no intention of paying OBOR debt.
If China thinks it can squeeze that money out of Pakistan, they are barking up the wrong tree.

He continues: “Yes, there’s a problem of returning the money and we might overextend ourselves. Is the U.S. government not over-extended? Isn’t everyone in debt? But what are our options? Even if we default, how many times has Argentina defaulted? It’s definitely not what we want, but it’s a part of the game. It’s a reality in business.”


It explains why China attempted to get IMF involved in making loans to Pakistan.
It was an attempt by China to get the IMF to do the dirty job of forcing Pakistan to tighten its belt to pay off China debts.
But US being chief financier of the IMF is having none of that.
It going to be up to China to get its money's worth from Pakistan - either by pouring in more money down that rat hole by moving manufacturing there or cutting their losses.

Another issue is that OBOR piggy backs on China's attempt to build a military naval base at Jiwani.
US is not going to finance China's military ambition even if OBOR could turn a profit.
And neither will it look kindly on other countries doing the same.

So the reality is Pakistan will not be paying off OBOR debt and China has knowingly or unknowingly made a multi-billion dollar "donation" to Pakistan.

If China demands ownership of the infrastructure in lieu of debt repayment, it effectively exposes OBOR as nothing more than a neo-colonial resource/land grab scheme. Not that Pakistan will even comply with that handover anyway.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2018 14:24

Neshant wrote:Thanks for the links Peregrine.

The way the guy puts it in the first article, Pakistan has no intention of paying OBOR debt.
If China thinks it can squeeze that money out of Pakistan, they are barking up the wrong tree.

He continues: “Yes, there’s a problem of returning the money and we might overextend ourselves. Is the U.S. government not over-extended? Isn’t everyone in debt? But what are our options? Even if we default, how many times has Argentina defaulted? It’s definitely not what we want, but it’s a part of the game. It’s a reality in business.”


It explains why China attempted to get IMF involved in making loans to Pakistan.
It was an attempt by China to get the IMF to do the dirty job of forcing Pakistan to tighten its belt to pay off China debts.
But US being chief financier of the IMF is having none of that.
It going to be up to China to get its money's worth from Pakistan - either by pouring in more money down that rat hole by moving manufacturing there or cutting their losses.

Another issue is that OBOR piggy backs on China's attempt to build a military naval base at Jiwani.
US is not going to finance China's military ambition even if OBOR could turn a profit.
And neither will it look kindly on other countries doing the same.

So the reality is Pakistan will not be paying off OBOR debt and China has knowingly or unknowingly made a multi-billion dollar "donation" to Pakistan.

If China demands ownership of the infrastructure in lieu of debt repayment, it effectively exposes OBOR as nothing more than a neo-colonial resource/land grab scheme. Not that Pakistan will even comply with that handover anyway.
Neshant Ji :

1. The Power Plants are Old Coal Fired Plants which WERE MOTHBALLED by the Chinese to reduce Atmospheric Pollution. So to the Chinese the Power plants are already "Depreciated down to ZERO". This is the same type of Aid as the Bhilai Steel Plant! The Pakistan Steel Plant is a Xerox Copy of the Bhlai Plant. The Difference is that the Bhilai Plant like the Pakistan Steel Plant had a capacity of 1.1 Million Tonnes. Bhilai is precently producing Five Million Tonnes of Steel and is being expanded to 7.5 Million Tonnes. Pak SDteel is closed for about Four Years!

2. Gwadar Port is leased to the Chinese for a few Decades.

3. I have tried but failed to find the number of British of European Origins in India and left India in 1947. I believe the number is between 150,000 to 200,000 to Rule Undivided India, Burma, Ceylon and possibly the control of Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait etc. The British Controlled Persian Gulf Countries used INDIAN CURRENCY!

4. Please note that there will be at least 500,000 Chinese in Terroristan - could-might-possibly be more. As such Terroristan will become Pakziang!

5. Thus Terroristan might not pay but Pakziang will become Part of China.

6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby souravB » 17 Sep 2018 15:02

Peregrine wrote:
6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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uhh sorry but No. I'd accept anything but Naive for the Americans. In risk of stating the obvious but the Pakis are the brainchild of Britshit+American intelligence. The Britshits though having a highly capable proxy warfare network couldn't have done it without the American help &/or money.
Now the reasons for this will go into the territory of CT so I will refrain from saying those, but that word, I cannot disagree with it more.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 19 Sep 2018 15:47

souravB wrote:
Peregrine wrote:
6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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uhh sorry but No. I'd accept anything but Naive for the Americans. In risk of stating the obvious but the Pakis are the brainchild of Britshit+American intelligence. The Britshits though having a highly capable proxy warfare network couldn't have done it without the American help &/or money.
Now the reasons for this will go into the territory of CT so I will refrain from saying those, but that word, I cannot disagree with it more.
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while the rolers and the ropers are globally in conflict or at best, something like a polite armed truce after (US UK NATO) holding the gulf countries in an unbreakable choke hold, just look at the active collaboration between the two centuries old sworn enemies when it comes to operating in India in a joint BIF mode.

The US + brit deep states are still sticking steadfastly to their post WWII agenda.

And not to mention that they have also suborned and even co-opted a good part of the Indian deep state as well.

Without supporting us like they have done the pakis all these decades, they have managed to change the social demographics of the entire north east, a feat that they have not managed to do in pakiland or they thought it unwise to do there.

The amerikis are anything but naive and they have horses for courses like when they softened up the then GoI with the nuke deal and every ameriki president since bush has seriously and consistently pushed the same singular agenda with India. Give the minimum and extract the maximum.

Looking at India's geography, two ocean access and proximity to strategic resources, both the brits and the amrekis, post Indian independence, wanted bases in India.

The US has finally managed that goal and got themselves access to safe harbours, airports and reliable repair/refuelling facilities and all this in a country where the general populace is friendly toward them, unlike many other parts of the world, especially pakiland.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 20 Sep 2018 10:09

Naya Pakistan proposals

Govt decides to drop 450 schemes from PSDP

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has decided to drop nearly Rs1.6 trillion worth projects from the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) with the aim to divert the sacred public funds :?: towards the schemes that are already under implementation.


The cost of about 450 schemes, all of them unapproved but part of the PSDP, is Rs1.6 trillion. The will result into reduction in financing needs of the PSDP by 27% to nearly Rs4.3 trillion, officials added.


Most of the projects are located in Punjab, which the last Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government had included in the PSDP despite the fact that these were provincial roads.


The bureaucracy of the Planning Ministry also did not play its role to stop the last government from inclusion of politically motivated schemes in the PSDP. The irony is that the same people are advising the new planning minister on the PSDP rationalisation. :wink: Flowing with the tide


An amount of Rs23 billion is proposed to be cut from the Finance Ministry administered PSDP. This will hit the allocations of the military establishment, the temporarily displaced persons (TDPs) and the prime minister’s special initiatives. The government plans to slash minimum Rs13 billion out of Rs90 billion of military establishment (has clearance been received from the Generals?)and the TDPs. Remaining about Rs15 billion could be saved by abolishing Rs10 billion of the PM funds and Rs5 billion of gas infrastructure funds.


Nearly one-dozen projects of the Power Division worth Rs26 billion and 15 schemes of water resources costing Rs51 billion will be excluded from the PSDP.Bijli Paani to come from CPEC projects hain?

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Sep 2018 16:17

Manish_P wrote:Naya Pakistan proposals

Govt decides to drop 450 schemes from PSDP
An amount of Rs23 billion is proposed to be cut from the Finance Ministry administered PSDP. This will hit the allocations of the military establishment, the temporarily displaced persons (TDPs) and the prime minister’s special initiatives. The government plans to slash minimum Rs13 billion out of Rs90 billion of military establishment (has clearance been received from the Generals?)and the TDPs. Remaining about Rs15 billion could be saved by abolishing Rs10 billion of the PM funds and Rs5 billion of gas infrastructure funds.
Manish_P Ji :
Sir Ji,

The Rs. 13 Billion"Slashing" out of an Initial "Declared" Figure of Rs. 1.1 Trillion i.e. Rs. 1,100 Billion is "Baby Chick" Feed.

This a amount is about 1.18% of the Officially Declared Military Budget - IMO it is about Rs. 1.3 to Rs. 1.4 Trillion.

In addition this Rs. 13 Billion is most probably a Figure to show the Mango Abduls that the Terroristani Army has made a "Sacrifice". Far be it from Immy the Dimmy's any such intentions. At the end of the day most probably NO CUTS WILL MADE in the Armed Forces allocation!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 30 Sep 2018 18:29

Fearing debt trap, Pakistan rethinks Chinese 'Silk Road' projects.

After lengthy delays, an $8.2 billion revamp of a colonial-era rail line snaking from the Arabian Sea to the foothills of the Hindu Kush has become a test of Pakistan's ability to rethink signature Chinese " Silk Road" projects+ due to debt concerns.

The rail megaproject linking the coastal metropolis of Karachi to the northwestern city of Peshawar is China's biggest Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project in Pakistan, but Islamabad has balked + at the cost and financing terms.

Resistance has stiffened under the new government of populist Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has voiced alarm about rising debt levels and says the country must wean itself off foreign loans. "We are seeing how to develop a model so the government of Pakistan wouldn't have all the risk," Khusro Bakhtyar, minister in Pakistan's planning ministry, told reporters recently.

The cooling of enthusiasm for China's investments mirrors the unease of incoming governments in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives, where new administrations have come to power wary of Chinese deals struck by their predecessors.

Pakistan's new government had wanted to review all BRI contracts. Officials say there are concerns the deals were badly negotiated, too expensive or overly favoured China. But to Islamabad's frustration, Beijing is only willing to review projects that have not yet begun, three senior government officials have told Reuters. (Danda that has already been inserted will not be taken off :mrgreen: )

China's Foreign Ministry said, in a statement in response to questions faxed by Reuters, that both sides were committed to pressing forward with BRI projects, "to ensure those projects that are already built operate as normal, and those which are being built proceed smoothly".

Pakistani officials say they remain committed to Chinese investment but want to push harder on price and affordability, while re-orientating the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - for which Beijing has pledged about $60 billion in infrastructure funds - to focus on projects that deliver social development in line with Khan's election platform.

China's Ambassador to Pakistan, Yao Jing, told Reuters that Beijing was open to changes proposed by the new government and "we will definitely follow their agenda" to work out a roadmap for BRI projects based on "mutual consultation". :rotfl:

"It constitutes a process of discussion with each other about this kind of model, about this kind of roadmap for the future," Yao said. Beijing would only proceed with projects that Pakistan wanted, he added. "This is Pakistan's economy, this is their society," Yao said. :lol:

Islamabad's efforts to recalibrate CPEC are made trickier by its dependence on Chinese loans to prop up its vulnerable economy.

Growing fissures in relations with Pakistan's historic ally the United States have also weakened the country's negotiating hand, as has a current account crisis likely to lead to a bailout by the International Monetary Fund, which may demand spending cuts.

"We have reservations, but no other country is investing in Pakistan. What can we do?" one Pakistani minister told Reuters.

The ML-1 rail line is the spine of country's dilapidated rail network, which has in recent years been edging towards collapse as passenger numbers plunge, train lines close and the vital freight business nosedives. Khan's government has vowed to make the 1,872 km (1,163 mile) line a priority CPEC project, saying it will help the poor travel across the vast South Asian nation.

But Islamabad is exploring funding options for CPEC projects that depart from the traditional BRI lending model - whereby host nations take on Chinese debt to finance construction of infrastructure - and has invited Saudi Arabia and other countries to invest.

One option for ML-1, according to Pakistani officials, is the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model, which would see investors or companies finance and build the project and recoup their investment from cashflows generated mainly by the rail freight business, before returning it to Pakistan in a few decades time. Yao, the Chinese envoy, said Beijing was open to BOT and would "encourage" its companies to invest.

Rail mega-projects under China's BRI umbrella have run into problems elsewhere in Asia. A line linking Thailand and Laos has been beset by delays over financing, while Malaysia's new Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad outright cancelled the Chinese-funded $20 billion East Coast Rail Link (ECRL).

Beijing is happy to offer loans, but reticent to invest in the Pakistan venture as such projects are seldom profitable, according to Andrew Small, author of a book on China-Pakistan relations.

"The problem is that the Chinese don't think they can make money on this project and are not keen on BOT," said Small. :D

During President Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan in 2015, the ML-1 line was placed among a list of "early harvest" CPEC projects that would be prioritised, along with power plants urgently needed to end crippling electricity shortages. But while many other projects from that list have now been completed the rail scheme has been stuck.

Pakistani officials say they became wary of how early BRI contracts were awarded to Chinese firms, and are pushing for a public tender for ML-1.

Partly to help with price discovery, Pakistan asked the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to finance a chunk of the rail project through tendering. The ADB began discussions on a $1.5-2 billion loan, but China insisted the project was "too strategic", and Islamabad kicked out the ADB under pressure from Beijing in early 2017, according to Pakistani and ADB officials.

"If it's such a strategic project then it should be a viable project for them to finance on very concessional terms or invest in?" said one senior Pakistani official familiar with the project, referring to the BOT model.

China's foreign ministry said Beijing was engaged in "friendly consultations" with Pakistan on the rail project. Chinese companies participated in BRI projects in an open and transparent way, "pooling benefits and sharing risks", it said. :rotfl:

Analysts say Pakistan will struggle to attract non-Chinese investors into the project, which may force it to choose between piling on Chinese debt or walking away from the project. :mrgreen:

In 2017, Pakistan turned down Chinese funding for a $14 billion mega-dam project in the Himalayas due to cost concerns and worries Beijing could end up owning a vital national asset if Pakistan could not repay loans, as occurred with a Sri Lankan port.

Khan's government chafes at several Chinese intercity mass transport projects in Punjab, the voter heartland of the previous government, which now need hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies every year.

They also fume about the risk of accumulating off-books sovereign debt through power contracts, where annual profits of above 20 percent, in dollar terms, were guaranteed by the previous administration.

With the ML-1 line, there are also those who harbour doubts closer to home, including the previous government's finance minister, Miftah Ismail, who said his ministry had always had concerns about its viability.

"When people say it's a project of national importance, that usually means it makes no sense financially," he said. :lol:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Supratik » 30 Sep 2018 20:10

$ 60 billion Chinese investment/debt. For comparison Pak economy is about 300 billion.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 30 Sep 2018 20:53

Supratik wrote:$ 60 billion Chinese investment/debt. For comparison Pak economy is about 300 billion.


A perfectly reasonable number if (and a HUGE if) this is correctly and fully utilized for productive investments. If not, it's a big hole in the pocket, much like their nukes and defence expenditure.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 30 Sep 2018 21:00

THat 300 billion number is also a bit of an exaggeration, I think the true figure should alteast 75 billion less given the past record where IMF and WB have found Pakis have always been inflating thier GDP numbers. I think Pakistan budget must just have too lines, interest and defense expenses and pensions. The rest of Pakistan should be taken care by Allah.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Supratik » 30 Sep 2018 21:10

Is it reasonable? That is equivalent to a loan of $600 billion to India. No reasonable Indian leader will take that kind of loan even for a 10-20 year period. Plus the economics is muddled. It makes sense for China to export through CPEC. Does it makes sense for Pak to export to China with the distance goods have to travel to eastern Chinese population centers. Except Xinjiang with about 40 million population there is no big market nearby. I think this will be a black swan moment for Pak.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 30 Sep 2018 21:45

Supratik wrote:Is it reasonable? That is equivalent to a loan of $600 billion to India. No reasonable Indian leader will take that kind of loan even for a 10-20 year period. Plus the economics is muddled. It makes sense for China to export through CPEC. Does it makes sense for Pak to export to China with the distance goods have to travel to eastern Chinese population centers. Except Xinjiang with about 40 million population there is no big market nearby. I think this will be a black swan moment for Pak.


Sure, if we had an extremely well thought out 10-year plan to double our road and rail networks (in terms of capacity and reach), increase our power generation by 50%, add 5 ports, and lay the groundwork to support industrial parks across under-developed states in the country, then $600 billion would be a very reasonable figure.

See for instance just NHAI's plans which call for $250b investment in 6 years:
https://www.ndtv.com/business/nhai-plans-road-projects-worth-250-billion-in-6-years-1278339

If as a result of the development coming from these loans results in our GDP growing just 2%, then (apart from interest payments) the investment will pay off in around 10 years.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Supratik » 30 Sep 2018 21:58

We are talking different things. What you have suggested above are multiple developments/projects using funds from multiple sources. What CPEC is - taking loan that is 20% of GDP for a basically single agenda project from a single source. In India we are jittery taking a loan of 15 billion dollars for a bullet train project with easy terms. If I know anything about economics they may be in big doo-doo just like what happened to SL, Maldives and
Malaysia.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 30 Sep 2018 22:17

Supratik wrote:We are talking different things. What you have suggested above are multiple developments/projects using funds from multiple sources. What CPEC is - taking loan that is 20% of GDP for a basically single agenda project from a single source. In India we are jittery taking a loan of 15 billion dollars for a bullet train project with easy terms. If I know anything about economics they may be in big doo-doo just like what happened to SL, Maldives and
Malaysia.


Please don't misquote me. I never said anything in my previous posts about a source. I am saying that the quantum of loans of $600b is something we can absorb for a massive infrastructure development project. Now if it happens to come from a single source, which will help us do planning and execution based on their awesome prior expertise and proven track record, so much the better.

Where this vision breaks down is when the project is mired in corruption, wishful thinking without clear economic goals, lack of transparency, poorly negotiated sovereign guarantees & unreal interest rates, lack of home-grown experts & solid financial/technical feasibility discussions, and geopolitics.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Supratik » 30 Sep 2018 22:25

IMO the only way CPEC can function is if China shifts part of its industrial base to Pakistan. Remember Pak has very little natural resources. Pak has large population but very little human resources. There are very few products that can be made in Pakistan using local resources. So China has to import into Pak resources, convert them into products and then sell them domestically or export. If Pak could have done it by itself then we would have some products by now. Theoretically this is possible but if you hand over a large portion of your economy to a foreign power there will be consequences.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 30 Sep 2018 23:45

Paki GDp do not exceed 240-250 Billion they are taking 25% of GDP worth loan from single source.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Oct 2018 01:06

Prem wrote:Paki GDp do not exceed 240-250 Billion they are taking 25% of GDP worth loan from single source.

Prem Ji :

Here are some Numbers :

Terroristani GDP 2017-2018 : T. Rs. 34,396.491 Billion

Basis US$ 1 = T. Rs. 125 It Equates to US$ 275 Billion

Predicted Growth 4.8% - 2018 – 2019 GDP : T. Rs 36,047.5

@ US$ 1 = T. Rs. 135 GDP Equates to US$ 267 Billion

@ US$ 1 = T. Rs. 140 GDP Equates to US$ 258 Billion

@ US$ 1 = T. Rs. 145 GDP Equates to US$ 249 Billion

@ US$ 1 = T. Rs. 155 GDP Equates to US$ 240 Billion

Please Take Your Pick!

Terroristani Population for 2019 should be 220 to 225 Million

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 01 Oct 2018 03:11

Guys you missed the most important data point. The Chinese are assured and guaranteed 20% yearly rate of return on their investment in $$ terms. All the investment figures in CPEC are highly inflated ones and the chinese have invested not more then 50-60% of the actual figure. So get this within 3 years they not only get their original investments back but continue to own the pakis lock, stock and barrel and also retain the ability to ghumao and twist the Danda without using vaseline :mrgreen:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 01 Oct 2018 03:15

Prem wrote:Paki GDp do not exceed 240-250 Billion they are taking 25% of GDP worth loan from single source.


That should worry the lender (China) and not the borrower (Pakistan). With that sum, lender is in trouble, not the borrower.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 01 Oct 2018 05:30

Vips wrote:Guys you missed the most important data point. The Chinese are assured and guaranteed 20% yearly rate of return on their investment in $$ terms. All the investment figures in CPEC are highly inflated ones and the chinese have invested not more then 50-60% of the actual figure. So get this within 3 years they not only get their original investments back but continue to own the pakis lock, stock and barrel and also retain the ability to ghumao and twist the Danda without using vaseline :mrgreen:



With this rate of return PC doubles the money every four years and quadruple in 8.
Wtf will be left of Paki as even with growth Paki GDP not gonna exceed 280-290 Billion. PRC will own all of Al Porkland in decade .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 01 Oct 2018 06:11

Prem wrote:PRC will own all of Al Porkland in decade .


Perhaps that's been the game plan all along- of Bakis that is.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 01 Oct 2018 07:47

There are 200 reasons why CPEC is fscked up, but the raw size of the total budget/loan is not one of them.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby abhijitm » 01 Oct 2018 08:48

CalvinH wrote:
Prem wrote:Paki GDp do not exceed 240-250 Billion they are taking 25% of GDP worth loan from single source.


That should worry the lender (China) and not the borrower (Pakistan). With that sum, lender is in trouble, not the borrower.

Here lender wants borrower to default. So the borrower is walking in to trouble.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 01 Oct 2018 10:05

Kashi wrote:
Prem wrote:PRC will own all of Al Porkland in decade .


Perhaps that's been the game plan all along- of Bakis that is.


Bingo! Been calling it a land grab scheme for a long time. Here's pakhanistan waking up:

Wary of debt trap, govt rethinks Silk Road projects

After lengthy delays, an $8.2 billion revamp of a colonial-era rail line snaking from the Arabian Sea to the foothills of the Hindu Kush has become a test of Pakistan’s ability to rethink the signature Chinese ‘Silk Road’ projects due to debt concerns.
Resistance has stiffened under the new government of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has voiced alarm about rising debt levels and says the country must wean itself off foreign loans.
The cooling of enthusiasm for China’s investments mirrors the unease of incoming governments in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the Maldives,
The new government in Pakistan had wanted to review all BRI contracts. Officials say there are concerns the deals were badly negotiated, too expensive or overly favoured China.
But to Islamabad’s frustration, Beijing is only willing to review projects that have not yet begun, three senior government officials have told Reuters.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1436109/wary- ... d-projects

Trikaal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 01 Oct 2018 13:20

There will be a repeat of Hambantota. China will write off the loan in exchange of 99 year lease on Gwadar. Already they are coming up with dedicated Chinese townships and what not. China probably already knows this and is prepared to write off most of the loan anyway.

Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Oct 2018 15:26

Prem wrote:Paki GDp do not exceed 240-250 Billion they are taking 25% of GDP worth loan from single source.
CalvinH wrote:That should worry the lender (China) and not the borrower (Pakistan). With that sum, lender is in trouble, not the borrower.
Calvin H Ji :

China nevel wolly!

China has a already factored Terroristan's inability to "Repay the Chinese CPEC-OBOR DEBT"

The Terroristanis have to repay the Chinese Debt at Rupees 97 to the Dollar.

In addition I draw your attention to the following Article :

Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to?

Tom Miller, author of “China’s Asian Dream,” has said that Chinese officials privately admit that they expect to lose up to 80 percent of their investment in Pakistan.


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yensoy
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 01 Oct 2018 16:06

abhijitm wrote:Here lender wants borrower to default. So the borrower is walking in to trouble.


Oldest trick known to man. Unfortunately the Chinese aren't religious, otherwise they would have read the scriptures, all of which rant against predatory moneylending. Jesus famously threw out the moneylenders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleansing_of_the_Temple.

It's a dirty secret in the moneylending industry that a deadbeat borrower is much more lucrative than one that pays up. The deadbeat's collateral can be seized at will, and could be worth several times the due amount, especially when collateral is an asset like farmland, jewelery or for the most unscrupulous bunch, the borrower's family's freedom.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 01 Oct 2018 17:25

IMF delegation, Pakistan to hold third round of talks today

Third round of talks between delegation of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan government will be held today (Monday) in Islamabad.
As per details garnered, IMF has termed current economic condition ‘unsatisfactory’.
Sources privy to development stated that IMF has sought contract details of game-changer China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as West’s interest continues to deepen in the multi-billion dollars strategic arrangement between time-tested allies [Pakistan and China].


Yes, SeePack is a game changer alright. Changed the game on how deals should be legitimately negotiated. Turned out to be more of a rule changer. Pakhanistan now has a new mai-baap - IMF.

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https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/459587 ... alks-today

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 01 Oct 2018 23:54

IMF appoints Gita Gopinath as Chief Economist

Oh you Pakis

:mrgreen: :rotfl:

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Oct 2018 00:44

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Pakistan cuts Chinese 'Silk Road' rail project by $2 billion due to debt concerns

LAHORE: Islamabad has cut the size of thebiggest Chinese "Silk Road" project in Pakistanby $2 billion, railway minister Sheikh Rasheed said on Monday, citing government concerns about the country's debt levels.

The mega project to revamp the colonial-era line stretching 1,872 km (1,163 miles) from Karachi to the north-western city of Peshawar was initially priced at $8.2 billion, but wrangling over costs has led to delays.

The changes are part of Islamabad's efforts to rethink key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Pakistan, where Beijing has pledged about $60 billion in financing but the new government of populist Prime Minister Imran Khan appears to be more cautious about the Chinese investment.

"Pakistan is a poor country that cannot afford huge burden of the loans," Rasheed told a news conference in the city of Lahore.

"Therefore, we have reduced the loan from China under CPEC for rail projects from $8.2 billion to $6.2 billion," he added, referring to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Rasheed said the government remains committed to the Karachi-Peshawar Main Line-1 (ML-1) project but added that he wishes to further reduce the cost to $4.2 billion from $6.2 billion.

Islamabad has balked at the financing terms and has pushed for deeply concessional loans for ML-1. It also invited third countries to join or for the Chinese to be investors in the project through the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model that would rely less on debt.

The United States has criticised BRI projects, warning that the loans could turn into debt traps for poor countries unable to pay them money back. Beijing denies the claims, saying the loans are a win-win situation for both countries.

"CPEC is like the back bone for Pakistan, but our eyes and ears are open," Rasheed said. The ML-1 is the spine of the country's dilapidated rail network, as well as the biggest source of revenue. Pakistan's rail system has struggled to break even for decades as passenger numbers plunge, train lines close and the vital freight business nosedives.

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Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 02 Oct 2018 00:51

Manish_P wrote:IMF appoints Gita Gopinath as Chief Economist

Oh you Pakis

:mrgreen: :rotfl:


Like a typical Indian she will probably go out of her way to help out a fellow 'South Asian' but it would be hilarious to see the conspiracy theories, personal attacks, religious bigotry and bluster, and casual misogyny that will be in full flow on Paki media outlets.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 02 Oct 2018 00:53

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

"CPEC is like the back bone for Pakistan, but our eyes and ears are open," Rasheed said.


More like a bone stuck in their back end, if you get the drift. :mrgreen:

Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 02 Oct 2018 09:32

Bart S wrote:
Manish_P wrote:IMF appoints Gita Gopinath as Chief Economist

Oh you Pakis

:mrgreen: :rotfl:


Like a typical Indian she will probably go out of her way to help out a fellow 'South Asian' but it would be hilarious to see the conspiracy theories, personal attacks, religious bigotry and bluster, and casual misogyny that will be in full flow on Paki media outlets.


And was the economic advisor to the Kerala government

So you never know...

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Oct 2018 18:03

If the Pakis defult in the IMF lending program (Which you bet it will, unless it gets another bail-out or refinance deal) they can blame the SDRE Indian for imposing unrealistic conditionalities in giving the aid.

Trikaal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 02 Oct 2018 19:41

^The real question is, with an SDRE Indian as chief economist, WILL the Pakis get the loan to even default on?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Supratik » 02 Oct 2018 19:57

They will get loan as the American backed west wants to preserve Pakistan. Only not for Chinese projects.

Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 02 Oct 2018 20:10

As chief economist (and not head of the IMF) she might not have much leverage anyway. Also, she comes from a Kerala commie political family so might actually be sympathetic to their cause.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 02 Oct 2018 21:05

Trikaal wrote:^The real question is, with an SDRE Indian as chief economist, WILL the Pakis get the loan to even default on?


The lady is an ameriki citizen.

She follows the ameriki dictats or she is out.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 02 Oct 2018 21:49

Loans to Pak is a political decision. Chief economist is a paper pusher job. Useful for attending cocktail parties.

Does not swing the needle any side.


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