Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Dec 2018 13:41

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

It is loosing Arbitration Cases Season for Terroristan!

NAB to pay Rs8.3 bn after losing case in UK

LONDON: The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) is set to foot the bill of more than $45 million (approx Rs6.238 billion) after losing a major case at the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) to the asset recovery firm Broadsheet LLC -- the firm hired by the NAB during Pervez Musharraf’s era to trace assets in UK and US of more than 200 Pakistanis (called ‘targets’ in the contract) including generals, politicians, businessmen with Benazir Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif as the chief targets.

Although, Broadsheet failed to produce any evidence of any kind of wrongdoing by Nawaz Sharif’s son Hasan and Hussain Nawaz, but it is now set to make a new claim against the NAB for $25 million fine imposed on him by the accountability court in Al-Azizia reference verdict. The total cost to the NAB will be over US$60 million when all costs, damages and fines taken into consideration.

The News has seen papers, which show that the total amount payable by the NAB stands at around $60 million (approx. Rs8.317 billion) on various counts, and any attempt by the NAB to wriggle its way out could only increase fines, costs and interests.

It all started in 2000 -- a year after Pervez Musharraf took over in a military coup and established NAB to investigate corruption allegations against public officials including the Sharifs. Musharraf’s government entered into an agreement with the Isle of Man-registered Broadsheet LLC in early 2000 with the task to help track down assets of Nawaz Sharif and more than 200 other politicians, generals and officials at its own expense -- in return for 20 percent of any sums recovered from the designated targets.

The News has seen the papers which show that the NAB has been held responsible for contractual damages and breach of contract from the day it signed the contract to trace assets of ‘target’ Pakistanis.

The total award to Broadsheet against the NAB is $21,589,460 against the following targets: Schon Group: $48,760 interest from 1 Jan 2013; Lakhani: $25,000, 1 July 2005; Kasmi: $85,600, 1 July 2005; Lt Gen Zahid Ali Akbar: $381,600, 1 Jan 2016; Sherpao: $210,000, 1 Jan 2018; Ansari: $180,000 (1 Jan 2005), $158,500 (1 Feb 2007) and $1,089,460; Sharif Avenfield ($1,500,000) and Sharif (other assets) $19,000,000.

The arbitration order says that “the parties are requested to calculate the amount of interest from the above dates to the date of this award (17 December 2018) and although dates of all the ‘targets’ for interest rate application has been given but no dates have been given against the work carried out against sons of Nawaz Sharif. It’s understood that Broadsheet started work against Sharifs as the first targets immediately after signing the contract in 2003.

A source told this correspondent that separate to the above costs, Broadsheet would claim $10 million from the NAB in litigation and case costs after decision in its favour. In addition, Broadsheet will seek 7 percent interest rate and the total amount in interest rate will be around $6 million. The source told that Broadsheet will seek around $6 million further from the NAB after Nawaz Sharif’s conviction and fine imposition claiming that the assets recovery firm was the first to initiate work on his alleged assets and provided paperwork to the NAB.

The source revealed that the NAB’s defence law firm Allen & Overy LLP has been paid, so far, £11 million (approx. Rs1.92 billion) and £2.5 million (approx. Rs437 million). These costs could go up if the NAB continues to seek services of this firm or any other. Another hearing is set to take place in London after a month from now in which the schedule of payments will be decided.

Broadsheet LLC, based in the Isle of Man, was hired by the NAB during Musharraf’s regime to trace hidden assets of Pakistanis in foreign countries and a contract was signed for the jurisdictions of America and Britain. Broadsheet alleges that the NAB terminated it in 2003. It launched a claim of around $600 million against the NAB but the NAB said that it’s for $340 million.

Litigation against the NAB and Broadsheet LLC has been going on for many years but the last hearings of four days took place in the end of July this year where former English Court of Appeal judge Sir Anthony Evans QC heard the case as sole arbitrator in a London-seated proceeding under the rules of the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators.

Colorado businessman Jerry James formed Broadsheet LLC as an offshore company. He filed for liquidation proceedings in the Isle of Man in 2005, before being dissolved and then revived. He then established a Colorado company with the same name and negotiated an agreement with NAB in 2008 to settle the dispute for $2.25 million. The NAB made two payments after that: £2.25 million was paid to another law firm and £1.5 million was pad to Jerry James and in the later deal the then High Commissioner Abdul Basit was a witness. The NAB paid US$ 1.5 million to Jerry James despite the knowledge that Broadsheet had gone into liquidation and Jerry James did not represent the appointed liquidator.

Broadsheet argued that the NAB broke terms of the contract and entered into agreements with the ‘targets’ without notifying it and therefore depriving it of the share as agreed. In August 2016, the international tribunal judge Sir Anthony Evans upheld Broadsheet’s arguments that the 2008 settlement was not binding on it and it was established that James had no authority to act on the company’s behalf at the time. It was also ruled that Pakistan is liable to pay damages as NAB wrongfully repudiated an asset recovery agreement with the Broadsheet and breached contract. It said that the payment agreement between the NAB and Jerry James was a sham. It was declared that Broadsheet was entitled to damages but the full extent will be determined later.

The matter reached before the Supreme Court of Pakistan after Broadsheet LLC requested to the apex court for the release of a copy of Volume-X of the joint investigation team (JIT) report on the Panama Papers. Both Attorney General for Pakistan (AGP) Anwar Mansoor Khan and Prosecutor General NAB Asghar Haider opposed the contention of Broadsheet regarding obtaining Volume-X of the JIT report.

Latif Khosa, the counsel for Broadsheet LLC, argued if the Volume-X of the JIT report is not provided then it would have a negative impact on the arbitration pending before Sir Anthony Evans, sole Arbitrator of International Arbitration in the United Kingdom.

Justice Azmat Saeed said that a three-member bench on 10-07-2017 while hearing the PanamaLeaks case had passed the order that Volume-X of the JIT report would remain confidential.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mody » 27 Dec 2018 15:13

Pakistan to repay China $40 Billion over 20 years for CPEC

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 0l7GP.html

"It was widely reported earlier that the Chinese investment in CPEC was to the tune of $50 bn, but the report in Express Tribune seems to suggest that the figure is nearly half of that.
Out of $39.83 bn, debt repayments of energy and infrastructure projects amount to $28.43 bn, the daily reported, citing documents of the ministry of planning and development.
The remaining $11.4 bn will be paid in the shape of dividends to the investors, according to official estimates."

"The paper reported that the figures are significantly lower than the projections made by some private institutions, primarily because the outflows have been worked out on the basis of only $26.5 bn investment.
“This suggests that unlike the claims of $50 bn to $62 bn CPEC investment, the actual investment is likely to remain half of the initially announced investment figures,” the report said."

"However, it is the return on equity, which in some cases is as high as 34.2%, that will cause an outflow of $11.3 billion."

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 27 Dec 2018 19:51

As usual pakis are lying. They have to get the IMF loans, just released partial information to IMF about the projects with low interests rates. The projects with high rate of returns have been conveniently not mentioned. The railways projects (Karachi Peshawar line, Karachi circular railways and others) are all projects which are cleared under CPEC.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 28 Dec 2018 08:44

Vips wrote:As usual pakis are lying.


When do they not?

Dim or insidious are those who "fall" for Baki lies every time.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby srin » 28 Dec 2018 08:59

mody wrote:Out of $39.83 bn, debt repayments of energy and infrastructure projects amount to $28.43 bn, the daily reported, citing documents of the ministry of planning and development.
The remaining $11.4 bn will be paid in the shape of dividends to the investors, according to official estimates


If they already fixed the amount of dividend to pay, then it is called interest, isn't it ? And therefore, it is still debt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 28 Dec 2018 10:03

Vips wrote:As usual pakis are lying. They have to get the IMF loans, just released partial information to IMF about the projects with low interests rates. The projects with high rate of returns have been conveniently not mentioned. The railways projects (Karachi Peshawar line, Karachi circular railways and others) are all projects which are cleared under CPEC.


Brilliant observation. BRF is always ahead of the curve.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby mody » 28 Dec 2018 14:41

Vips wrote:As usual pakis are lying. They have to get the IMF loans, just released partial information to IMF about the projects with low interests rates. The projects with high rate of returns have been conveniently not mentioned. The railways projects (Karachi Peshawar line, Karachi circular railways and others) are all projects which are cleared under CPEC.


It may also mean that those projects have not yet taken off. Only the projects already underway are being reported. Those still in negotiations or planning stage, where the work has not started have not been mentioned.

This also means that pakis themselves are now having doubts about the whole project and maybe some of the other parts of CPEC maybe cancelled.
Already the reports have mentioned that the pakis are trying to reduce the projected cost of the railway project from $8.2B to less then 6 billion or maybe as low as 4 billion. Obviously this will be wishful thinking as the chinis will not agree and if at all will scale down the project suitably, such that their percentage returns remain the same. Some other parts like the Daimer Basha dam, which was also originally supposed to be a part of CPEC, have already been cancelled.

I won't be surprised, if the scope of CPEC reduces to about $30-35 billion, from the originally projected $62 billion, as the pakis realize that many of the projects will never break even and that they cannot afford to take anymore financing from China, without selling off everything. By restricting the number of projects, they will probably have to sell only half of everything that they have.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 28 Dec 2018 15:02

mody wrote:I won't be surprised, if the scope of CPEC reduces to about $30-35 billion, from the originally projected $62 billion


If anything, CPEC has always gone up from initial $40-something to $56 billion to presently $62 billion, this despite the change in scope, routes (opting for easier options) and removal of projects (dams in PoK).

CPEC is a ponzi scheme that is counting on Bakis scamming dollars from elsewhere to siphon off the the Cheeni, in return Cheen will "extend" their support to the Bakis against India, politically, diplomatically (UN votes, NSG etc.) and militarily (transfer of weapons, equipment etc.)

Once the first tranche of IMF loans is approved, expect to see "accelerated development" of CPEC "projects"

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Dec 2018 15:53

Govt to provide forex for CPEC debt repayment - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The government of Pakistan is legally bound to ensure the provision of foreign currency for debt repayment to Chinese financial institutions by investors of power plants set up under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and for the repatriation of profits by them, says a bilateral agreement.

Unlike other independent power plants that are operating under the IPP policy, the power plants being set up under the CPEC umbrella have been ensured preferential treatment.

The government of Pakistan and the government of China in November 2014 signed the agreement on CPEC Energy Projects Cooperation that gives legal cover to the rights of investors and their financiers.

A working by the Ministry of Planning showed that Pakistan would have to return $40 billion to China in the next 20 years on account of repayment of debt and dividends of the projects established under CPEC.

An amount of $7.5 billion will be repaid by the government of Pakistan against $5.9 billion in principal loans taken for infrastructure projects. Out of the remaining over $32 billion, nearly $20 billion will be paid to Chinese financial institutions on account of debt repayment by investors and $11.3 billion will be paid in dividends to the investors of power plants.

In response to an article appeared in The Express Tribune on Wednesday, the Ministry of Planning stated “the energy projects are being executed purely under the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) mode and finances are mainly taken by private companies against their own balance sheets”.

It added that the dividends of the energy projects were also based on profit and loss and were subject to an individual company’s financing policies, therefore, CPEC was not imposing any burden with respect to loan repayment and energy sector outflows.

The planning ministry did not contest the figures quoted in the story on account of capital outflow due to repayment of the debt taken for setting up the power plants and dividend payments.

The 2014 treaty binds the government of Pakistan to provide foreign currency to these investors.

Article 6 of the treaty says “Pakistani party agrees to provide each year during project’s operation period through the SBP, for all of the company’s transactions related to the project that require foreign currency, in case such foreign currency is not available through authorised banks in Pakistan. Pakistani party commits initiating a mechanism for expeditious conversion of revenue of power plants.”

This suggests that the repayment of these loans and dividends will also be the headache of Pakistan government, at least to the extent of provision of dollars amid low foreign currency reserves of the country.

Planning ministry’s spokesman on CPEC Hassan Daud Butt did not respond to the question whether it was not the responsibility of the government under the 2014 treaty to ensure availability of $32 billion in foreign currency for repatriation to China in the next 20 years.

The planning ministry working showed that in the current fiscal year 2018-19, the Sahiwal power plant would give $137.53 million in debt repayment and another $97.9 million in dividend payment.

Commercial loans for setting up power plants have been arranged at an interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 4.5%. However, it is the return on equity, which in some cases, is as high as 34.2%, which will cause the outflow of $11.3 billion.

Private sector loans have been secured for a term of 10 to 12 years and a grace period of three to four years, according to the planning ministry’s presentation.

Infrastructure projects are financed through concessionary bilateral loans from China for a period of 20 years and a grace period of five to seven years.

But the last government was of the view that high return on equity had to be given to make these projects attractive, as people were not ready to invest in coal-based projects.

The Chinese investors of the energy projects also enjoy other preferential treatments. Article 3 of the agreement promises tax exemption of interest income accruing from the commercial loans by the Chinese commercial banks. This means that Pakistan has foregone tax on $4.42 billion profit that Chinese financial institutions would earn on $15.42 billion loans for the energy projects.

Butt did not respond to the question whether such exemptions have also been given to the IPPs that are operating outside the ambit of CPEC.

Article 5 of the same agreement says that a revolving account shall be opened within 30 days of commercial operations of every power project, into which the money no less than 22% of the monthly payments for the respective power projects shall be deposited. This arraignment has been done to protect the Chinese investment from adverse impact of the circular debt.

Butt did not respond to whether this facility was also offered to IPPs working outside the ambit of the CPEC.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 28 Dec 2018 15:55

Kashi wrote:
mody wrote:I won't be surprised, if the scope of CPEC reduces to about $30-35 billion, from the originally projected $62 billion


If anything, CPEC has always gone up from initial $40-something to $56 billion to presently $62 billion, this despite the change in scope, routes (opting for easier options) and removal of projects (dams in PoK).

CPEC is a ponzi scheme that is counting on Bakis scamming dollars from elsewhere to siphon off the the Cheeni, in return Cheen will "extend" their support to the Bakis against India, politically, diplomatically (UN votes, NSG etc.) and militarily (transfer of weapons, equipment etc.)

Once the first tranche of IMF loans is approved, expect to see "accelerated development" of CPEC "projects"


After the 1971 war which created beediland, the cheeni who were supposed to help the pakis by deploying their troops against India did not do so for a variety of reasons but mostly it was thought that the uncertainty as to what the russians would do under such circumstances that scared them away. kissinger (and nixon) also repeatedly asked the cheeni to move against India. This cheeni inaction badly disappointed the pakis but the cheeni actually went very much further than even the pakis could have ever imagined in their wildest dreams.

To ensure that India would/could never again break up pakiland, they set in motion an irreversible plan and that was the nuclearization as well as the weaponization of pakiland. There are numerous indications that the amerikis purposely ignored this aspect of the paki cheeni plan as did the europeans and the britshits.

The amerikis and the french inteligence had concrete and specific proof of xerox khan's activities, pertaining to his nuke commerce and supermarket enterprises including his dealings with various mid eastern nutters as well as the north koreans. The paki generals took a major portion of xerox khan's earnings and paki AF transports were used to carry nuke stuff to and from cheeni, north korea and other customers.

the cheeni were key players in all this and that too under the very nose of the amerikis.

The cheeni are long time strategic thinkers and usually, their projects play out with decades elapsing between the plan and it's gestation and the maturation.

gwadar has been in their sights for long decades now and pakiland is critical as well as vital to the military plans that will help them to break out of the relative isolation of their geographic situation and their give wings to their great (only) power ambitions.

The splitting of pakiland, in fact I would go so far as to say that they deliberately sat back and precipitated the paki breakup so that they could seize this most unexpected and golden opportunity, use it as a god sent short cut, to press on with their gwadar/kharkoram highway plans and at the very same time protect their investment and hobble India by nuclearizing and weaponizing the paki army. This was the forerunner to the CPEC/OBOR/BRI strategy that they eventually unfolded and are in the process of operationalizing.

Any perceived commercial spinoff to the CPEC in pakiland is merely incidental to the hans primary military and their supreme national interests. In fact, its this commercial aspect that is now being used as a cover by the hans to try and cloak their real and true intentions from the phata pyjama aam paki abduls. all of whom are having wet dreams and dreaming big of emulating the gulf arabs and thinking that lakhs upon lakhs of migrant labor will come and do their work for them and these phata pyjama aam paki abduls will simply kick back and rake in the moolah like the gulf arabs are doing now with the phata pyjama aam paki abduls.

In fact to pacify the hans the amerikis went so far as to arrange with the UK for rolls royce to sell 50 of its spey turbofan engines to china thereby repeating the hugely major blunder that the UK had done decades ago to sell its prizes and crown jewel aero engines to russia.

When the Soviet Union was given 40 Rolls-Royce Nene jet engines by Clement Attlee's Labour government and the Russians copied the technology to produce their own. This was done amidst great opposition by the stupid govt of the day

This RR Nene engine was the basis for the Klimov RD-45 engine that powered the MiG -15 fighter. This rebadged RR engine first entered russian service as the RD-45, and after initial problems of metallurgy forced the Soviet engineers to develop a slightly redesigned (and metallurgically closer) copy, the engine had then entered production as the Klimov VK-1 (Rolls-Royce later attempted to claim £207m in license fees, without success).

The below quoted article is paywalled. It gives one the general idea of what these "gerat" powers were up to.

If anyone has access, please post the article in full.

INTERNATIONAL COMMENTARY

Don't Sell the Rolls to China

Updated Aug. 27, 2001

By Richard D. Fisher, Jr. Mr. Fisher edits the China Brief newsletter of the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C.

British jet engine maker Rolls Royce is repeating a tragedy: For the second time in about 50 years it is selling critical technology that will aid the military capability of a hostile communist power. And as happened before, this mistake will cost lives.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby TKiran » 28 Dec 2018 17:32

If we remove the noise from signal, pakis are saying that they will give the money from IMF to cheenis for CPEC (it doesn't matter less or more).(it doesn't even matter if the loan approval would be delayed by 3 months or 6months, pakis need money to pay cheenis- schedule gaya bhaad mein.)

So they are going to take the US tax payer money through IMF and gift it to cheenis for CPEC. Let's see if US is going to accept that.

If US doesn't accept and force IMF not to give aid to pakis, it means, US is really serious about breaking cheen. On the contrary, if they approve, that means, US is either naieve or they are no longer the super power they used to be.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Dec 2018 18:25

X Posted on the P E S W Thread

Pakistan set to issue 'Panda bond' in Chinese currency - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The federal cabinet on Thursday approved the issuance of Pakistan’s first renminbi-denominated bonds to raise loans from Chinese capital markets, as the country gradually moves towards giving the Chinese currency a status at par with that enjoyed by the US dollar.
The cabinet approved the issuance of the maiden renminbi-denominated ‘Panda Bonds’ during its meeting presided over by Prime Minister Imran Khan. The Finance Ministry did not seek the cabinet’s nod for the size of the bond at this stage, although it expects to raise $500 million to $1 billion in different tranches. At least one tranche is expected during the current fiscal year.
Finance Minister Asad Umar told the federal cabinet that the interest rate may range above 5.5% but the final price can only be determined at the time of launching the bond.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Dec 2018 19:37

chetak Ji : Your Post - 28 Dec 2018 15:55

Une Analyse Par Excellence Mon Ami!

À votre santè Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 28 Dec 2018 19:44

Peregrine wrote:chetak Ji : Your Post - 28 Dec 2018 15:55

Une Analyse Par Excellence!

À votre santè Image


:)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 28 Dec 2018 23:05

^^just dont understand the madarssa maths behind it.
1. From where do they have that much remnibi? Chinese citizens parking money in pakistan.
2. Ratings of Phillipines is BBB- for almost an year, whereas pakistan is B, that makes it junk bond (hope that is halal) as of now the rate on ICE USD bonds is 8.3%, how do they plan to get away with 5.5%? This is even without accounting for the debt, fx and political risks inherent to them
3. If they flood themselves with remnibi, they will that too will have effect on RMB-PKR exchange rates now and the time of redemption, if not at coupon payments (considering their current debt levels)
My sense is that they realize that they have fallen prey to chinese predatory lenders and in long and short run their only option is defaulting on debt. And if they have to default why not on more amount so that it becomes strategic to chinis or in other words "Too Big to Fail". May be they think thy can scare the chinese by money just as they have been doing the khans with their nukes

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby venug » 29 Dec 2018 00:04

TSP's rating (I think it was day before) was downgraded to B-. Not even B.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 29 Dec 2018 01:59

^^you're right, I used the whole letter rating. The main point was that the ratings is right before the untouchable C rated and these guys are just trying to get away with 1% interest rate differential

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Dec 2018 02:07

venug wrote:TSP's rating (I think it was day before) was downgraded to B-. Not even B.
venug Ji :

Here you go :

Fitch downgrades Pakistan’s rating amid stable outlook
KARACHI: Fitch – one of the three major global rating agencies – has downgraded Pakistan’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘B’ ahead of a major maturing Eurobond repayment worth $1 billion in April 2019.
Besides, the country is to repay $7-9 billion in debt servicing per year over the next three years.
The rating was downgraded as Pakistan’s capacity to repay weakened due to fast shrinking foreign currency reserves, which depleted to a critically low level of $7.26 billion as on December 7, 2018 covering just one and a half month of imports, it said.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 29 Dec 2018 18:45



Paki exports in the last 5 months have increased less then 5% inspite of the massive rupee devaluation. It was actually down by 1% in november month compared to the figures of November 2017 :lol:

In another 2-3 months if IMF/USA refuses to give a deal on soft terms you will see real panicking and the TFTA rats scrambling to leave the pakistani hell hole.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby VKumar » 29 Dec 2018 23:40

Ajit would say Pakistani economy is in liquid oxygen! Army expense not letting them live and alms from overseas not letting them die.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 30 Dec 2018 03:42

India should go all out in targeting and making the Pakistani exports noncompetitive. Only if textile sector is rendered ineffective you will have lakhs of aam abduls unemployed and on the streets. Wish we could do this but our Dharmic DNA renders us incapable of being ruthless.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gyan » 30 Dec 2018 19:42

Talking to some major textile & garment companies of India, I can assure that India & Bangladesh has eaten the lunch of Pakistanis in exports.

Earlier Pakistan was Bhikkaridesh & Bangladesh was Nangadesh. Now Pakistan alone is BhookhaNangadesh.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby souravB » 30 Dec 2018 20:13

Gyan wrote:Talking to some major textile & garment companies of India, I can assure that India & Bangladesh has eaten the lunch of Pakistanis in exports.

just a small correction, the countries who ate up textile export of Bakis are BD and Vietnam. we also have failed our textile industry and didn't grow them much for exports. We do not import much too though.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 31 Dec 2018 05:36

souravB wrote:just a small correction, the countries who ate up textile export of Bakis are BD and Vietnam. we also have failed our textile industry and didn't grow them much for exports. We do not import much too though.


To add to it, much of Vietnam's textile exports involve Cheeni companies that used to be leading textile exporters have relocated there.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sanjaykumar » 31 Dec 2018 09:16

I believe Indian textile companies are exporting from BD. Also perhaps half their cotton is imported from India.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby souravB » 31 Dec 2018 09:34

^^ yes.. and that has some positive as well as some negative effects on us. Negative effect like less growth of job but one of the positive effect would be manufacturing uses huge quantity of water and cause large scale pollution of the water sources.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 31 Dec 2018 12:49

Kashi wrote:
souravB wrote:just a small correction, the countries who ate up textile export of Bakis are BD and Vietnam. we also have failed our textile industry and didn't grow them much for exports. We do not import much too though.


To add to it, much of Vietnam's textile exports involve Cheeni companies that used to be leading textile exporters have relocated there.


we still sell them a lot of cotton, though.

We don't export much because our industry is geared for mass consumption, lower value items whereas the pakis are geared for high quality, high value items.

However, we are producing exactly what the amm paki abduls/ayeshas are eagerly buying so there is mucho mass consumption textile traffico from India to pukiland via third countries.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 31 Dec 2018 19:36

It's our own fault that Bangladesh, Vietnam and China are eating our garment-making/assembly lunch (likewise for shoes and other such items) and we haven't completely shut out the Pakis from the market (though due to their own stupidity they are doing much the same on their own). The big drawback in India is labour laws that are biased towards SMEs for such industries and effectively discourage massive, large scale units where economies of scale, and investment in technology and skilling of labour really pays off. SMEs are better than nothing but aren't competitive for many key segments, especially the higher value-add, better quality ones.

Also, leaving aside the simple economic value of such a sector, garment assembly is relatively low pollution, and largely employs women. The latter is especially important as it significantly boosts income in poorer and semi-rural areas and overall leads to better health, development, education and population control metrics.

The other key disadvantage for India is that we are less privileged under the quota/tax system (GSP plus?) by Western nations than places like Pakistan. This is again something that we should be lobbying for if the government took the sectors seriously.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 31 Dec 2018 21:30

Back to the subject matter...

How to wreck an economy

LESS than two years ago, Pakistan’s economy was being celebrated for being dynamic, resilient, and on a path to high, sustainable, growth. .... (Yeah, Right!! By Who?)
Today, the story is very different. The expected growth rate for the current fiscal year has been lowered to near three per cent, the lowest in nine years, and is expected to be lower still in the subsequent two years.
However, this crisis has not been caused as much by fundamentals, as by complacency, incompetence, and utter mismanagement by the incumbent government.
This so-called crisis which has taken place affecting Pakistan’s economy rests unambiguously on the shoulders of the finance and economic team managing the economy since August 2018, and especially on Pakistan’s finance minister.(Asad Umar, son of a war criminal, and an ex CEO fired by Engro Corporation for mismanagement)
All that one has seen since the PTI government took over is a failure to understand how Pakistan’s economy works, what the key issues and problems are, and how they are to be addressed.
Even international agencies have had to downgrade Pakistan’s economy’s ratings on how the economy has been managed.
Other than asking its three ‘friendly’ countries for desperate loans and deposits, there seems to be no policy, leave alone a vision, regarding Pakistan’s economy.
Although the government celebrates a handful of dollars deposited with the State Bank of Pakistan by two countries, this is akin to giving someone who is completely broke and destitute and insolvent some money for safekeeping, so that they can try and look good, but are in no position to spend or use that money since it needs to be paid back and, that too, with interest.
Pakistan’s accounting books might look good for a few months because of money loaned to it, but these sums will need to be paid back. A loan is not a grant. And claiming that there are no conditions attached — whether political or military — to these loans, is naiveté of the highest order, a point raised by a senior member of Pakistan’s Senate.
By saying that we may go to the IMF, or that we may not, or that we no longer need the IMF, the finance minister is stoking the already raging fires of uncertainty regarding Pakistan’s economy.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1454624/how-t ... an-economy
https://pioussluts.wordpress.com/2013/0 ... asad-umar/

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 03 Jan 2019 00:19

Excellent financial results from the franchises of PSL!!

The league that is 400% better than IPL. :mrgreen:

All PSL franchises make huge losses

:((

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 03 Jan 2019 01:46

sudhan wrote:Excellent financial results from the franchises of PSL!! All PSL franchises make huge losses


From the link:

ESPNcricinfo has obtained a copy of a letter that was sent by the PCB to the finance minister of Punjab, which includes consolidated financial details of the five franchises from the 2016 and 2017 seasons. This is the letter that the PCB had erroneously sent to all franchises, inadvertently revealing the financial details of each franchise to the others, a slip-up that the PCB chairman Ehsan Mani had to apologise for.


The term "idiots" just doesn't begin to describe the morons running PCB.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 03 Jan 2019 01:52

The leak in PCB communication where in all the financial details and confidential information about each franchise was broadcasted reveals in essence what and how much shit the other is in :rotfl:

Early this year each PSL franchise was comparing its valuation to that of the Mumbai Indians!!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 03 Jan 2019 04:14

More Paki comedy :lol: Read in full.

Remember Farrukh Saleem, the TV 'expert' (basically all he did was read Wikipedia and repeat a random nugget from there ad nauseum with no genuine knowledge or insight) who was then appointed as the PTI government's spokesperson (basically a propagandu/shill for the talk shows) on economic affairs?

‘Govt-appointed’ Farrukh Saleem unhappy with economic policies


https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/0 ... -policies/

After letting the cat out of the bag on the govt's economic blunders, PTI has disowned him as their spokesperson :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 03 Jan 2019 06:15

Vips wrote:Early this year each PSL franchise was comparing its valuation to that of the Mumbai Indians!!!


Lol. IPL sold TV and Digital broadcasting rights for $2.55B for 5 years in 2017 and PSL sold the same rights 2 years later for $36M for 3 years. That should gives some clues on the differences in scale.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 04 Jan 2019 18:55

Rising circular debt.

QUIETLY, behind the noise and fury of the headlines, the circular debt continues its march. If one only looks at the figures being given publically for the total size of the monster, it is alarming to note the steep increase. The power division officials just told the Public Accounts Committee that the figure has now crossed about Rs1.4tr. In August 2018, while testifying before a Senate panel, the same officials had given the figure of Rs1.14tr. This would mean that the circular debt has climbed by more than Rs200bn in the 137 days in between these two dates. For perspective, consider that the same figure stood at Rs922bn at the end of November 2017, meaning that the size of the debt increased faster from August till today than it did in the preceding ten months :mrgreen: . This sharp uptick needs focus, and parliamentary bodies have good reason to summon power division officials and ask more detailed questions about where exactly the acceleration in the circular debt is coming from.

There are a number of different components of the circular debt, and the power division officialdom is becoming quite adept at presenting the numbers in a way to downplay the problem :lol: . For example, one method is to omit the amount held by the Power Holding Pvt Ltd, a special-purpose vehicle created specifically for the purpose of financing the circular debt for the power sector, and which pays its financial costs via surcharges built into the consumer tariff. Creating confusion around the numbers is a common tactic for officialdom to avoid scrutiny, and in the power sector they are free to indulge in this habit to their full satisfaction. In the same time period, from August 2018 till today, the recommendations of the Special Committee on Circular Debt formed by the Senate have been silently awaiting action. These recommendations include the establishment of a high-level monitoring committee, as well as a slew of deep-rooted reforms.

Left to its own devices, with the government working in one corner and the bureaucracy in another, this state of affairs will not abate. The increase in the rate of accumulation is alarming because the circular debt can ultimately shut down the power system and impose nearly crippling costs on the fiscal framework. To get a handle on the situation, the minister needs to develop a standard reporting template for all power sector data, both operational and financial, through which progress can be monitored effectively to control recoveries and keep power sector debt from climbing to unmanageable levels. At Rs1.4tr, we might already be approaching that stage. At the moment, increasing quantities of power sector inefficiencies are being passed onto the consumer through miscellaneous surcharges and an elevated target for losses allowed by Nepra. The power sector is crying out for proper leadership, and the costs of inaction are rising by the day.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 05 Jan 2019 18:13

Budgetary borrowing soars 86pc

The government’s borrowing for budgetary support has surged by 86 per cent in 1HFY19, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) revealed on Friday.
According to latest data, the federal government borrowed Rs722 billion during the six months (July-Dec 28), compared to Rs387.7bn in same period last year – an increase of Rs334.3bn.
Revenue shortfalls have forced the government to borrow more in order to fund its expenditures. In 5MFY19, revenue shortfall was reported as Rs112bn, which the Federal Board of Revenue attributed mainly to slashing of sales tax on petroleum products and withdrawal of tax on mobile phone cards.
According to the data, government has borrowed Rs1.436 trillion from SBP during the first half of this fiscal year, compared to Rs288bn in same period last year.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1455606/budge ... soars-86pc

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 05 Jan 2019 18:18

PTI will struggle to reverse waning momentum, says Fitch Solutions

Political headwinds are growing in Pakistan, warns Fitch Solutions
The government will struggle to deliver results given growing downside risks to policy-making stemming from a growing opposition and rising influence of religious hardliners, as well as deteriorating foreign relations with the west,” said the report.
Pakistan’s economy is faced with growing challenges that will adversely hit the lives of the common citizens. As one example, the CPI-based inflation has reached a four-year high at 6.78 per cent in Oct, 2018 before easing to 6.2pc in December. The rising inflation has come on the back of around 25pc depreciation in the Rupee against the greenback during last year coupled with high international oil prices during the first half of 2018.
Moreover, investor confidence has declined significantly in the past six months mainly due to the economic mismanagement of the government visible in the ad hoc mini-budgets, energy crisis affecting the industry, exchange rate volatility and high interest rates.
The report maintains Pakistan’s short-term political risk index score at 48.2 out of 100, described by the authors as “poor”.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1455610/pti-w ... -solutions

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Jan 2019 21:31

FATF set to review Pakistan case at Sydney.

Teams from Pakistan and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) are going to hold a three-day session in Sydney beginning Saturday to discuss the issue of removing the country’s name from the Grey List. (Bhikari's are very confident - They are talking of removal from grey list instead of moving to the black list)

The meeting will review the progress made in achieving the targets set under an action plan to stop money laundering and terrorism financing from Pakistan.

A high-level delegation led by Federal Finance Secretary Arif Ahmed Khan has already left for Sydney to take part in the talks.

The delegation also includes high-level officials from the State Bank, SECP, FBR’s financial monitoring unit, interior ministry and DG NACTA.

During the talks, the delegation will present its joint committee report for FATF to the officials and brief them about the progress on the risk investment report of the force.

According to sources, Pakistan has accomplished multiple targets spelled out in the action plan of the FATF while many other targets are in their advanced stages of completion. (Translation- If you are not removing our name from grey list, then give us more time)

The members of the review committee are from China and India, with the latter having perceived prejudice against Pakistan. Keeping this in mind, Pakistani authorities have expressed their reservations over the inclusion of members from India in the task force. :rotfl: ( Lahori logic and sense of entitlement - examinee demanding its choice of examiner)

The sources further said that the three-day meeting will also see FATF’s review on Pakistan’s implementation on the action plan based on which Pakistan will present a report to FATF on January 14. (Mai-Baap allah ke naam pe grey list se nikal kar black list mein naa dalo)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Jan 2019 21:48

I get the reason why Terroristani's dont want India in the FATF review committee. That is because By the end of September next year, Pakistan has to comply with the action plan it had committed with the FATF in June to get out of the grey list or else fall into the black list. Over the next nine months, i.e. till September 2019, the government will complete the investigation into the widest range of terror financing activities, including appeals and calls for donations and collection of funds, besides their movements and uses.

Pakistanis know that while they can fool the international communities by taking some cosmetic measures like seizing bank accounts and banning some groups they cannot do so if Indians give thier inputs. All Indian delegation has to do is to point to Hafeez Saeed and his terrorist organization openly collecting funds and donations in Pakistan and also maintaining bank accounts under different names. Indians can also give critical inputs on the hawala/drug/terror financing operations of D- Company which is under ISI protection.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 05 Jan 2019 22:12

ArjunPandit wrote:^^you're right, I used the whole letter rating. The main point was that the ratings is right before the untouchable C rated and these guys are just trying to get away with 1% interest rate differential


the pakis are actually "untouchable C rated" but the hans/saudis may have prevailed over the rating agencies to back off a bit.

notice that even saudi and emirates did not lend them money but simply deposited the same, maybe in the paki reserve bank as an interest bearing loan and as a sort of cushion to bolster the paki economy or what's left of it.


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