Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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menon s
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 30 Jan 2019 13:00

Falling area of cotton Crop in Pakistan. (source: SBP q1 FY 19)

The latest estimates for cotton crop reveal a worrying picture, as the total production in FY19 is estimated at 10.8 million bales, a decrease of 9.2 percent over the last year’s production level, and trailing 24.3 percent behind the targeted level of 14.4 million bales for the year . This below-expectation performance of the cotton crop was largely due to a contraction in the cultivated area. It is pertinent to highlight here that the cotton cultivated area was the lowest in the last seven years; this was mainly due to a lower than average availability of canal water and poor quality of the groundwater. Estimates of lower production in the country and rising international cotton prices have put upward pressure on prices of seed cotton in the domestic market.

Given the stability in the cotton prices, farmers are expected to improve their agronomic practices (pesticides application and soil management) which might enhance cotton production and yield in the coming seasons. Given the average mills’ annual consumption of around 14 million bales in the
country, the production is expected to remain short by around 23 percent for the ginners as per their installed capacity for value addition. It is important to note here that raw cotton imports for the Q1-FY19 already stand at 218 thousand bales compared to imports of 113 thousand bales in Q1-FY18, and it is likely that this trend would continue going forward.


India s Production is 34 million bales of 170 kilos each.

arun
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 01 Feb 2019 12:14

X Posted from the Terroristan thread.


Pakistan seeks investment from overseas citizens with new bond

Date created : 31/01/2019 - 18:52
Islamabad (AFP) ……………….

The PBCs, which have no maximum investment amount, are available in three and five-year maturities, yielding 6.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively, according to the government. …….

Clicky



So much for equal=equal.

State Bank of India is accepting 3 year USD deposits at a yield of 3.58 and 5 years at 3.92%. The yield of 6.25 percent for 3 year USD Bond and 6.75 percent yield for 5 year USD Bond that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan is paying is a staggering 74.5% premium over what India pays for 3 year USD maturity and also a staggering 72.2% premium over what India pays for a 3 year USD maturity. Clink link that appears on this page of SBI’s website for SBI’s USD Deposit Rates

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Feb 2019 21:26

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Inflation hits highest in four and a half years - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The inflation reading spiked 7.2% in January, hitting the highest level in nearly four and a half years in the wake of increase in prices of utilities, medicines and an expansionary fiscal policy, reported the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday.

The cost of every notable consumer item including medicines, beef, house rent, gold and cars increased significantly last month, affecting all types of income groups of consumers. Prices are hurting consumers at a time when the economy is slowing down and many professional groups in the salaried class are facing job cuts. The latest inflation bulletin has endorsed the central bank’s apprehension about persistent inflationary pressures, which have now led to the reversal of the two-month-old downslide in the inflation index.

As core inflation stays high, SBP hikes interest rate

The headline inflation raced to 7.2% in January 2019 compared to 6.2% in the preceding month, reported the national data collecting agency. It was the highest level since August 2014, when the headline inflation stood at 7%. Core inflation accelerated from 8.4% to 8.7% in January – the highest level since June 2014.

Image

The increase in inflation to the level from where the index had started coming down suggests that goods prices would keep rising in coming months due to high rates of almost every consumer item, except for perishable food.

The higher core inflation, which is the target of the central bank while deciding the monetary policy, suggested that the State Bank took a prudent decision by further tightening the monetary policy a day ago. However, the monetary tightening is rendered ineffective by the finance ministry’s hefty borrowing, which increased 430% in the past seven months.

After the recent decision, the central bank has cumulatively increased the key interest rate by 4.5% since January last year aimed at curtailing aggregate demand in the economy.

The accelerated inflation was contrary to the public expectation, captured in the recent IBA-SBP’s consumer confidence survey, which indicated some moderation in the households’ inflation expectations.

The central bank governor warned on Thursday that the second round impact of exchange rate movements, upward adjustment in gas and electricity tariffs, and higher government borrowing from the SBP would be offset by the lagged impact of increase in the policy rate and fall in international crude oil prices on inflation. The governor also warned that the finance ministry’s borrowing for budget financing would keep inflationary pressures high.

Data showed that inflation surged to 7.2% due to increase in the cost of beverages, housing, water, gas and electricity charges and transport fares. Average inflation in first seven months (July-January) of the current fiscal year also rose 6.2%. The average inflation is above the government’s annual target but is close to the range given by the central bank.

The continued increase in interest rate has made it difficult to offer housing facilities under Prime Minister Imran Khan’s affordable housing programme and has also pushed up the government’s cost of debt servicing.

In January, gas prices went up 85.3% on an annual basis, bus fares increased over 50%, prices of basic medicines, like Calpol syrup, shot up 31.2%, CNG price increased 28.4%, Flagyl tablet became expensive by over 26% and cigarettes by 20.7%.

In seven months: FBR collects Rs2.07tr in taxes, misses target by Rs187b

Car prices increased nearly 20% in January over a year ago, iron bar rates rose 19%, high-speed diesel 18.6%, gold 18.6% and tea prices over 17%. The kerosene oil price jumped 16.2%, beef 14.3%, cement 14%, electricity 8.5% and house rent 8.2%.

After July, the government has also levied more regulatory duties, in addition to letting the rupee depreciate further against the US currency. The impact of these measures is becoming visible.

Overall, prices of the housing, water, electricity and gas group increased 11.6% in January over a year ago. The group has a 29.4% weight in the overall inflation basket – the second largest group after food. The cost of educational services increased 10%. Transport group prices surged almost 15% due to continued increase in prices of high-speed diesel and motor fuels.

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 03 Feb 2019 08:02

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristan Thread


Car prices increased nearly 20% in January over a year ago, iron bar rates rose 19%, high-speed diesel 18.6%, gold 18.6% and tea prices over 17%. The kerosene oil price jumped 16.2%, beef 14.3%, cement 14%, electricity 8.5% and house rent 8.2%.



What about grass? 420 & Cashmere grass? That's what m a tters!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 04 Feb 2019 17:08

So, the Paki PM has just announced kick started the new health care scheme.

Free health care upto 720,000 PKR..

The man is busy hammering holes in a tank that he himself is struggling keep wet, with some blisteringly furious begging..

https://www.dawn.com/news/1461789/pm-kh ... insaf-card

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 04 Feb 2019 19:26

S&P cuts Pakistan's credit rating to 'B-' from 'B'.

S&P Global Ratings said on Monday it lowered Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’, citing diminished growth prospects, as well as elevated external and fiscal stresses.

S&P maintained Pakistan’s rating outlook at ‘stable’. :rotfl:

Fitch in December had downgraded Pakistan’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ while giving the sovereign a ‘stable’ outlook.

Fitch – one of the three major global rating agencies –downgraded Pakistan’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘B’ ahead of a major maturing Eurobond repayment worth $1 billion in April 2019.

Besides, the country is to repay $7-9 billion in debt servicing per year over the next three years. (27 Billion minimum in 2-3 years)

The rating was downgraded as Pakistan’s capacity to repay weakened due to fast shrinking foreign currency reserves, which depleted to a critically low level of $7.26 billion as on December 7, 2018 covering just one and a half month of imports, it said.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Singha » 04 Feb 2019 21:17

Afaik

Saudi 1b usd
Uae 1b usd
China 2.5b usd

In recent handouts

disha
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 04 Feb 2019 21:29

Vips wrote:[url=https://tribune.com.pk/story/1903429/2-sp-cuts-pakistans-credit-rating-b-b/]
S&P maintained Pakistan’s rating outlook at ‘stable’. :rotfl:


What it means is that the S&P will not change the rating for say next 6 months. "The rating outlook is stable".

If you come to me for a rating on say an a company, I can say that the company is in XYZ state and my rating is stable for a quarter or two (given the current facts).

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Austin » 04 Feb 2019 21:36

Singha wrote:Afaik

Saudi 1b usd
Uae 1b usd
China 2.5b usd

In recent handouts


Pakistan is the official custodian of Saudi Nuclear Weapon and by its extension the Sunni Ummah Nuclear Bomb. Saudi are in possession of Chinese IRBM and MRBM DF-21/3 https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-cia- ... eal-227283

So the money Saudi and UAE would be giving to their Sunni Brother might be far greater then what they officially show , probably that includes doles like free Oil to Pakistan something they did in Kargil for them

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 05 Feb 2019 05:08

Austin wrote:
Singha wrote:Afaik

Saudi 1b usd
Uae 1b usd
China 2.5b usd

In recent handouts


Pakistan is the official custodian of Saudi Nuclear Weapon and by its extension the Sunni Ummah Nuclear Bomb. Saudi are in possession of Chinese IRBM and MRBM DF-21/3 https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-cia- ... eal-227283

So the money Saudi and UAE would be giving to their Sunni Brother might be far greater then what they officially show , probably that includes doles like free Oil to Pakistan something they did in Kargil for them



Well, that is idle speculation, but if that is true, Pakis are in even deeper schidt than we think, given by how FUBAR they are all that massive aid. :lol:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Feb 2019 10:53

Austin wrote:
Singha wrote:Afaik

Saudi 1b usd
Uae 1b usd
China 2.5b usd

In recent handouts


Pakistan is the official custodian of Saudi Nuclear Weapon and by its extension the Sunni Ummah Nuclear Bomb. Saudi are in possession of Chinese IRBM and MRBM DF-21/3 https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-cia- ... eal-227283

So the money Saudi and UAE would be giving to their Sunni Brother might be far greater then what they officially show , probably that includes doles like free Oil to Pakistan something they did in Kargil for them


The West also gave tactical approval to Pakistan Bomb, it shows to what extent these regimes are protected by "liberal Western Democracies".

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Neshant » 05 Feb 2019 11:52

sudhan wrote:So, the Paki PM has just announced kick started the new health care scheme.

Free health care upto 720,000 PKR..

The man is busy hammering holes in a tank that he himself is struggling keep wet, with some blisteringly furious begging..

https://www.dawn.com/news/1461789/pm-kh ... insaf-card


Boggles the mind how he plans to pay for it all.

That being said, he seems to be genunely interested in improving the well being of his countrymen.

Might be worth studying if this program somehow manages to work.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 05 Feb 2019 16:23

We already have a functional Ayushmaan Bharat scheme that Immy seems to have been "inspired" by in packaging this scam of his.

According to reports, this scheme was already operational during NS time.

That said, what made you conclude that Immy "seems to be genunely interested in improving the well being of his countrymen."

I am only curious.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Feb 2019 18:45

PM Imran advised caution on IMF bailout deal.

The deal that International Monetary Fund (IMF) has put on the table is not in the interest of Pakistan because it will unduly burden the vulnerable population and further strain the economy, Finance Minister Asad Umar told Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday.

Umar shared his position with the prime minister during a meeting of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC), chaired by Khan at his office, highly-placed sources told The Express Tribune. The sources said that Prime minister Khan had invited the participants’ views about the IMF programme.

Not surprisingly, the EAC members and a cabinet member who had previously worked with the global financial institutions, urged the government to sign the IMF deal. But Umar was backed by Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a noted economist, and Dr Najeeb Khaqan, the Adviser to the finance ministry.
The sources said that Umar told the prime minister that the best option was to go the IMF on Pakistan’s terms but the deal that the IMF had offered was not in the country’s favour (We are paki beggars and hence do not believe that beggars cant be choosers :D ). He said that the second option was to find an alternative to the IMF. (Expensive loans from the so called friends of pakistan :lol: )

The third and worst option was to sign the deal at IMF’s terms, the sources quoted Umar as telling the prime minister. “My position is unchanged from day one and that is to negotiate a programme, which is good for Pakistan’s economy and then sign it,” Umar said, replying to a query by The Express Tribune.

According to the finance minister, his preference was “still a well-negotiated IMF programme and that was why we are engaged in active discussion with the IMF and will have next video conference on Thursday”. (keep the Vaseline jar ready)

The staff-level talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended inconclusively in November last year after the government refused to accept the IMF’s harsh conditions. Since then, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has managed to secure breathing space after it won $14.5 billion worth of commitments from China, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

These $14.5 billion commitments have helped largely bridge the external financing gap during the ongoing fiscal year. China has agreed to provide $2.5 billion in loans to Pakistan to boost official foreign exchange reserves. In July, China had also deposited $2 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan. In the past five years, China has emerged as Pakistan’s single largest saviour in times of economic crisis.

A top government functionary told The Express Tribune that a consortium of Chinese banks would provide $2.5 billion in commercial loans at floating interest rates of London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus over 3%. (Libor rate is 3.10% and plus 3% means Chinese are charging interest rate of 6.10% :rotfl:)

During the meeting, the sources said, Asad Umar shared some of the harsh conditions of the IMF programme with the EAC members: notably further increase in electricity prices and cutting back the budget deficit while ignoring the ground realities.

In order to make his point, Umar cited the example of Egypt, where poverty increased from nearly 30% to 53% due to the IMF programme, according to the meeting participants. Egypt steeply devalued its currency that even did not help reduce the current account deficit.

The IMF was also asking for total free float exchange rate regime, which the government is not willing to accept, Umar said. It has also asked to further increase the interest rates and keep the primary balance –the current expenditures excluding interest payments, positive, he added.

The sources said that Umar told the EAC that the indicators were moving, albeit slow, towards the right direction. He said that the stock market had started gaining momentum and the foreign portfolio investment remained positive in January.

A provincial government representative advised that the federal government should take a clear line of action –whether it wanted to go to the IMF, said the sources. But despite the pitfalls of the current IMF offer, the EAC members who have worked with the international financial institutions urged the government to secure the deal with the IMF.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby arun » 07 Feb 2019 11:06

Express Tribune reports that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan has made Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s boast that the Islamic would “Eat Grass” come true.

Lots of nuggets on the pretty pickle the Islamic Republic has got itself into, the key one for me being the size of the defence budget “inclusive of pensions, strategic nature expenses and special military packages” being PKR 1.676 Trillion. Not clear though if this PKR 1.676 Trillion includes outlay for debt servicing on debt taken on for military acquisitions / purposes.

Govt to pay Rs3.6 trillion on defence, debt servicing

By Shahbaz Rana Published: February 7, 2019

ISLAMABAD: The federal government would pay a whopping Rs3.6 trillion on account of defence and debt servicing that is equal to 68.2% of the current fiscal year’s revised budget, the centre on Wednesday sensitised the provinces about the grave fiscal situation that has thrown the country into a debt trap.

After excluding debt servicing and defence related obligations, the net federal revenues for fiscal year 2018-19 are negative Rs632 billion, Federal Secretary Finance Arif Ahmad Khan briefed the four provinces during the first meeting of the ninth National Finance Commission (NFC).

The NFC meeting included a detailed presentation by the federal finance secretary, focusing on the country’s overall current fiscal position.

The federal government’s total gross revenues are estimated at Rs5.5 trillion. Out of this sum, the provinces will get Rs2.581 trillion as their share in the federal divisible pool. This leaves the net federal revenues at Rs3 trillion but the cumulative spending on just two heads – debt and defence – is Rs3.62 trillion.

Since the debt and defence spending are equal to 121% of the net federal revenues, the finance ministry borrows to pay salaries, pensions, run hospitals, schools and build roads. Every penny that the centre spends on development is borrowed from the banks and foreign lenders.

Pakistan’s debt and liabilities surge to Rs31 trillion

Compared with negative Rs632-billion revenue of the federal government, the net revenue, after excluding interest payments of the provinces, is positive Rs583 billion for this fiscal year. Under the existing constitutional arrangement, defence is the responsibility of the centre.

Against the stated defence budget of Rs1.1 trillion, the finance ministry told the NFC that by the end of fiscal year 2019, Rs1.676 trillion would be spent on defence that is equal to 31.5% of the federal budget. This is the second biggest charge on the budget after debt servicing.

The Rs1.676-trillion defence expenditures are inclusive of pensions, strategic nature expenses and special military packages, according to the finance ministry’s presentation.

Similarly, against Rs1.842-trillion budgeted cost of debt servicing, the finance ministry told the provinces that the debt servicing would consume minimum Rs1.95 trillion, or 36.6%, of the total budget. The central bank’s decision to increase interest rates also put additional burden of roughly Rs500 billion on the finance ministry due to high cost of borrowing.

Pakistan to pay China $40b on $26.5b CPEC investments in 20 years

The cumulative spending on these debt and defence has been projected at Rs3.621 trillion, or 68.2%, of the budget by the finance ministry.

Such an alarming situation of the federal fiscal operations showed that the centre was not in a position to surrender any amount out of its 42.5% share in the federal divisible pool. But the provinces want to increase their pie.

The finance ministry has projected the size of the budget at Rs5.38 trillion for this fiscal year and showed the federal fiscal deficit at Rs2.4 trillion or 6.3% of GDP.

“Until resources are increased, neither the provinces nor the centre can achieve its targets,” said Finance Minister Asad Umar after the NFC meeting.

Punjab’s technical member NFC Dr Salman Shah said the overall debt has increased to Rs30 trillion and this carried huge implications for the federal government as someone has to finance it.

The finance ministry took a position in the NFC that the fiscal sustainability was at the heart of the economic and social management. It was of the view that imprudent fiscal management led to worsening external account, unsustainable economic growth and increase in prices and accumulation of debt.

In its presentation, the Ministry of Finance projected the FBR’s revenues at Rs4.417 trillion while the other revenues were shown at Rs1.15 trillion. The gross revenue receipts that were equal to 12.1% of GDP in 2012 have now increased to Rs14.8% of GDP.

But the stick and inelasticity in expenditures, like defence and debt servicing, kept the budget deficit towards the higher end. The total federal expenditures that were Rs3 trillion or equal to 15.2% of GDP in 2012 have now increased to Rs5.4 trillion. The high debt and defence servicing adversely impacted the federal development spending that was Rs317 billion, or 1.6%, of GDP in 2012 will now go down to 1.5% of GDP at the end of this fiscal year. In absolute terms, the finance ministry has projected the federal development spending at Rs575 billion in this fiscal year.

Total gross revenues of the four provinces have been projected at only Rs654 billion in this fiscal year. The four provinces have been projected to pay Rs71 billion in interest payments, leaving their net revenues, excluding interest payments at Rs583 billion.

But Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah on Wednesday blamed the FBR for this poor fiscal performance. He was of the view that the provinces showed 26% growth in collection of sales tax on services during the past five years, which was double the growth rate in collection of sales tax on goods by the FBR.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 7th, 2019.


From here:

Govt to pay Rs3.6 trillion on defence, debt servicing

Vips
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 07 Feb 2019 19:44

Govt to pay Rs3.6 trillion on defence, debt servicing.

The federal government would pay a whopping Rs3.6 trillion on account of defence and debt servicing that is equal to 68.2% of the current fiscal year’s revised budget, the centre on Wednesday sensitised the provinces about the grave fiscal situation that has thrown the country into a debt trap.

After excluding debt servicing and defence related obligations, the net federal revenues for fiscal year 2018-19 are negative Rs 632 billion :D , Federal Secretary Finance Arif Ahmad Khan briefed the four provinces during the first meeting of the ninth National Finance Commission (NFC).

The federal government’s total gross revenues are estimated at Rs 5.5 trillion. Out of this sum, the provinces will get Rs2.581 trillion as their share in the federal divisible pool. This leaves the net federal revenues at Rs 3 trillion but the cumulative spending on just two heads – debt and defence – is Rs 3.62 trillion.

Since the debt and defence spending are equal to 121% of the net federal revenues, the finance ministry borrows to pay salaries, pensions, run hospitals, schools and build roads. Every penny that the centre spends on development is borrowed from the banks and foreign lenders. :rotfl:

Compared with negative Rs632-billion revenue of the federal government, the net revenue, after excluding interest payments of the provinces, is positive Rs583 billion for this fiscal year. Under the existing constitutional arrangement, defence is the responsibility of the centre.

Against the stated defence budget of Rs1.1 trillion, the finance ministry told the NFC that by the end of fiscal year 2019, Rs1.676 trillion would be spent on defence that is equal to 31.5% of the federal budget. This is the second biggest charge on the budget after debt servicing.

The Rs1.676-trillion defence expenditures are inclusive of pensions, strategic nature expenses and special military packages, according to the finance ministry’s presentation.

Similarly, against Rs1.842-trillion budgeted cost of debt servicing, the finance ministry told the provinces that the debt servicing would consume minimum Rs1.95 trillion, or 36.6%, of the total budget. The central bank’s decision to increase interest rates also put additional burden of roughly Rs500 billion on the finance ministry due to high cost of borrowing.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 07 Feb 2019 20:53

Debt + Defence gobbles up 121% of their revenues?? How are they even staying afloat??

For comparison: Sri Lanka, a smilarly debt trapped nation.. they spend ~$7 billion on servicing their mainly chinese
debt + defence. That amounts to ~50% of the nation's revenues.. Thankfully, they have managed to maintain a stable Forex kitty ..

This should serve as a lesson to those nations considering welcoming the Chinaman who comes bearing gifts..

They will trap you under a mountain of debt, milk you dry and finally take ownership of your key real estates..

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 07 Feb 2019 20:59

sudhan wrote:Debt + Defence gobbles up 121% of their revenues?? How are they even staying afloat??

For comparison: Sri Lanka, a smilarly debt trapped nation.. they spend ~$7 billion on servicing their mainly chinese
debt + defence. That amounts to ~50% of the nation's revenues.. Thankfully, they have managed to maintain a stable Forex kitty ..

This should serve as a lesson to those nations considering welcoming the Chinaman who comes bearing gifts..

They will trap you under a mountain of debt, milk you dry and finally take ownership of your key real estates..


Saar, they have always been like that, remember Bhutto's statement about eating grass but making the bomb etc. They have simply taken to the Chinese debt disguised as aid (plus slush funds to bribe civil and military elites) like a pig takes to the dirt. They did this earlier with the Americans too, the difference is that the Chinese aren't as stupid or forgiving.

But yes, other saner nations would take note.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 08 Feb 2019 06:11

Bakis have nukes and are for hire to any bidder. That and Malsi is the biggest difference between Sri Lanka and Bakistan.

It doesn't matter for them if expenses outweigh revenues by a mile or 100 miles. The grass eating is only for the phata abdul andayesha. TSPA in particular will never go hungry as long as TSP exists in present form. The rest don't matter.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 08 Feb 2019 21:25

Fawad Chaudhry answers questions about the defence budget of NaPakLand. Assures that there will be no cuts.

Basically, he is guaranteeing that the the PESt watch thread will live a long and productive life on BRF

https://www.dawn.com/news/1462515/no-ax ... es-cabinet

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sudhan » 08 Feb 2019 22:54

Updates on their Rental power project mess.

The Investment disputes court suspends the ruling of awarding $860 million to Karkey..

Pakis as usual are portraying this as a victory in the media. This is simply the court honoring the law wherein the defendant gets to contest the judgement.

They think they can prove corruption in the original deal, as usual this might also get thrown out the window.. Poor pakis

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1905931/1- ... -evidence/

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 08 Feb 2019 23:15



The government has decided not to make any cuts in the country’s defence budget, preferring instead to intend to increase it through the generation of more revenue. (yeah sure :D )

“The country’s defence budget is already low as compared to other states in the region, and therefore it should be increased,” said Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry in a post-cabinet meeting press conference on Thursday (Army asking for pay back for making charsi the PM) . Asked about the government’s austerity measures to reduce running expenditures by 10 per cent, he commented, “Some people have problems about the defence budget and try to make it an issue. (What is the problem with people? The grass we will give them to eat will be green and made with Fauji Fertiliser :rotfl: )

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 11 Feb 2019 21:28

Yawn - What is Pakistan’s car industry good for? :((

We produce around 200,000 cars a year. With six times the population, India produces more than four million — 20 times as many — cars and more than 20 million two-wheelers.


It should be clear to us that Pakistan is not a good market on either front. Locally, only 6 pc of our households can afford to own a car, bus or truck — with a household size of over six, that is a vehicle ownership rate of less than 1pc.

When I talk of the poorest buyers in the market, even those who buy Mehrans or other low-end cars are among the richest people in the country in relative terms.


Even with only 6pc of Pakistani households owning vehicles, our big cities are already choked. Imagine if all 32 million households in Pakistan were able to afford two cars each: are we really prepared for that at all?


Even with our low rate of car ownership, the costs are huge: we spend billions on building infrastructure that enables private cars. We import oil worth billions of dollars, of which almost half is used to power our love for private cars.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby uskumar » 12 Feb 2019 14:09

China's disappointing aid offer dashes Pakistan's hope of debt rescue
It seems Pakistan will need IMF Bailout package after all. It will be interesting to see reaction of pakistani people to increase in price of electricity, gas, food etc which is inevitable in IMF Bailout package.

menon s
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 12 Feb 2019 16:24

they need about 6 bn dollars before june 30 2019. ? have 8 bn at hand( mostly borrowed money), and is loosing 1bn usd as CAD every month?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Feb 2019 16:35

Manish_P wrote:Yawn - What is Pakistan’s car industry good for? :((

We produce around 200,000 cars a year. With six times the population, India produces more than four million — 20 times as many — cars and more than 20 million two-wheelers.
Manish_P Ji :

Siamindia - Indian Automotive Production

The industry produced a total 23,861,485 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers, two wheelers and quadricycle in April-December 2018 as against 21,432,030 in April-December 2017, registering a growth of 11.34 percent over the same period last year.

At this rate I feel that the April 2018 - March 2019 Automotive Vehicles Production should be over 31 Millions!

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Feb 2019 16:45

menon s wrote:they need about 6 bn dollars before june 30 2019. ? have 8 bn at hand( mostly borrowed money), and is loosing 1bn usd as CAD every month?
menon s Ji :

The Picture is "Alarming" to say the Least :

Alarm bells : 06 - 09 - 2019

Imagine: Our net international reserves now stand at negative $11 billion.


Sir Ji : Now it must be even Worse! :rotfl:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 12 Feb 2019 18:46

The first $1 billion received from saudi was gone in 16 days and the other $2 billion (one billion each from Saudi and UAE) were done in 18 days!! :rotfl:
There was a :(( :(( talk show on a tv channel about his.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 12 Feb 2019 18:53

Pakistn government offically sells adulterated oil.

In 2016, when the Honda motor company publicly alleged that petroleum marketing companies — including Pakistan State Oil — were selling adulterated petrol, petrol companies denied it, but HDIP later confirmed the allegations.


:rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Feb 2019 00:09

^^I am all for this down the drain ..and down with Pakis approach. Saves us from the trouble of causing harm

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby SBajwa » 13 Feb 2019 01:27

even Nepal has more foreign exchange money than Bakistan!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 14 Feb 2019 09:04

Saudi $ are only as deposit in Account and cannot be spent by Imm Da dimm . I think same goes for UAE money.
Kar lo Gal , Paki are Mushcrewed.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 14 Feb 2019 09:16

But what happens if Bakis DO spend that money.

Are there any mechanisms to prevent the funds from being withdrawn in this manner? Or are they stored in an overseas account that would register as a Baki sovereign account, but requires explicit permission from the donor KSA/UAE before Bakis can withdraw the sums within?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 14 Feb 2019 12:57

IMF-mandated dismantling of Paki economy's smoke-and-mirrors

ISLAMABAD: In order to reach a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan will require to bring down its borrowings from the central bank to nil from Rs3.8 trillion, jack up electricity tariff by up to 30%.

This would also include the inclusion of integrated value-added tax (VAT) for bringing both goods and services under uniform tax collection agency, reports The News.

To reduce its borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan to nil, the government will have to affirm to reduce borrowings on a quarterly basis and the dependence for it will transfer to commercial banks instead.


If these measures are adopted, the central bank will cause an increase in interest rate, since SBP has already raised policy rate by 450 basis points in the last year to 10.25% from 6.75%.

According to official sources, the IMF will demand to attain a primary balance of budget into surplus, which is presently seeing a huge deficit.

The primary budget deficit which doesn’t include interest payment has been determined at negative 2.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) based on last year’s fiscal data.

And the Washington-based lender is seeking to convert this deficit into a surplus, hence the incumbent government will require to make a fiscal adjustment of 1.1% of GDP each in the next two years akin to what IMF got enforced in case of Egypt’s $12 billion package.

To attain fiscal consolidation under the demand of converting the primary balance of budget deficit into a surplus, the government will require to slash grants and subsidies including the development programme.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf already slashed the size of the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) in September last year and now the focus could be moved towards eliminating vertical programmes such as population welfare and other in its entirety from the realm of the federal government to provinces.

However, funding for Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) would be secured in order to ensure safety nets for unprotected segments of society that could be severely jeopardized in the wake of adjustment programme under IMF demands.

And BISP programme may undergo shift on a cost-sharing basis of 50:50 percent by the federal and provincial governments.

Under IMF conditions, the existing general sales tax (GST) regime will be replaced with VAT. At present, GST on goods falls under the purview of the federal government, whereas GST on services falls in the domain of provinces.

Regarding the increase in power tariff, the officials shared the government will have to explore different options for managing the ongoing cash bleeding of the power sector.


As mentioned previously, it really would be shame if the IMF helps the buggers get their house in order. A lot of short term pain, initially, but then they might have a fighting chance to get out of their doldrums. May be.

Far better to let them sink in more Chini-Arab brotherly debt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Feb 2019 18:59

The IMF program will take atleast 3-4 years before the benefits start to kick in. By that time charsi Immy will be facing an election and the fury of the aam abduls who will be reeling under the massive inflation and price rise of essentials.

The aam abduls will be of course no consequence to Immy if the army/isi assures to engineer another win for him.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nachiket » 15 Feb 2019 01:05

Every time the IMF bails out the Pakis they have similar conditions supposedly attached which the Pakis are to abide by. They never do and never learn and end up in the same soup over and over again. Why should this time be any different?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Yagnasri » 20 Feb 2019 10:33

Pakis are addicted to beg and live on the alms of others. I seriously doubt if they will agree all the hard conditions. Even if they do agree, they will find themselves in a mess once again in a few years. A terror supporting state with terrorist save heavens will not get reformed on long term basis so easily.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 20 Feb 2019 10:54

Yagnasri wrote:Pakis are addicted to beg and live on the alms of others. I seriously doubt if they will agree all the hard conditions. Even if they do agree, they will find themselves in a mess once again in a few years. A terror supporting state with terrorist save heavens will not get reformed on long term basis so easily.


WhyMF? They got 20 billion from their king. If they still return to IMF it will only mean that MBS money is bogus.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Yagnasri » 20 Feb 2019 11:59

Sultan only promissed to given. Not yet given. Sultan himself is not in a very good position financially. So first let him give and then we will see.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2019 12:23

Also the Saudi Money is supposedly investment that too at MOU stage.

Even if it flows it will take years. The earlier 6 billion was to tide over the immediate needs.

The IMF deal is required to mostly rollover the previous IMF loans that are coming due. If not there will be a default and which will have its own consequences in terms of further access to money markets for immediate and future borrowing.

The other option is to simply pay the IMF off. :rotfl:


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