Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2514
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Katare » 19 Jul 2019 02:02

Peregrine wrote:
Peregrine wrote:vips Ji:Most of the Terroristani Economic Figures are based on the 2018-2019 Third Quarter Numbers. Their corresponding Fourth Quarter Figures i.e. 01 April 2019 to 30 June 2019 will be published in September.
Then we will know the actual figures!
Vips wrote:Thank you Sirji. Waiting for September for the Porki figures to come. Just would like to see what spin they put on it. :mrgreen:
Bart S wrote:Pretty sure that their GDP has shrunk it $ terms big time. Their nominal per capita is likely to be circling the $1200 mark, even if their vastly understated population numbers (they haven't done a census in around 20 years) are taken at face value.
vips Ji & Bart Ji :

Terroristan – Economic Survey 2018-2019

PAGE : 331 / 503

In Terroristan Million Rupees

GDP {GVA + T - S} : 38,558,769

Gross National Product (mp) : 41,071,880

Population (in million) : 204.65

Per Capita Income(Rs) : 200,693

Per Capita Income(US $) : 1,497.3 – Conversion Rate – US$ 1 = Tr. Rs. 134.00!

US $ last day weighted avg. exchange rate in Rs - Q 1 :124.2 – Q 2 :138.8 - Q 3 :140.7

Thus I feel that the Conversion Rate for the Full Year will be around US$ 1 = T Rs 145

In addition, various Articles in the Terroristan Press are mentioning the Population as 220 Million which case the Per Capita Income would be about US$ 1287 or so.

Cheers Image

GDP will be calculated at the rate of Rs/dollar at the end of the year. So 161 is the rate nothing else matters as far as I can see

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Jul 2019 04:45

Peregrine wrote:vips Ji & Bart Ji :

Terroristan – Economic Survey 2018-2019

PAGE : 331 / 503

In Terroristan Million Rupees

GDP {GVA + T - S} : 38,558,769

Gross National Product (mp) : 41,071,880

Population (in million) : 204.65

Per Capita Income(Rs) : 200,693

Per Capita Income(US $) : 1,497.3 – Conversion Rate – US$ 1 = Tr. Rs. 134.00!

US $ last day weighted avg. exchange rate in Rs - Q 1 :124.2 – Q 2 :138.8 - Q 3 :140.7

Thus I feel that the Conversion Rate for the Full Year will be around US$ 1 = T Rs 145

In addition, various Articles in the Terroristan Press are mentioning the Population as 220 Million which case the Per Capita Income would be about US$ 1287 or so.

Cheers Image
Katare wrote:GDP will be calculated at the rate of Rs/dollar at the end of the year. So 161 is the rate nothing else matters as far as I can see
Katare Ji :
Wish it was that simple!

Visit the following Website : Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Million US$)

You will find the “US$ last day weighed avg. exchange rate” as follows :

Q 1 - 124.2, Q 2 - 138.8 Q 4 - 140.7. The Total Average up to the Third Quarter was taken as 134.

Thus, I feel that the US $ Rate will be Average of the Four Quarters including the Rate of the Fourth Quarter and thus will be about 145 or so.

After all you and me and all like minded believe in Satyameva Jayate and we do not practice Taqiyya and Kitman!

Cheers Image

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2514
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Katare » 19 Jul 2019 06:01

It is that simple IMO! It could be a trillion dollar GDP yesterday but what counts today is it’s market value today.

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Jul 2019 14:03

Katare wrote:It is that simple IMO! It could be a trillion dollar GDP yesterday but what counts today is it’s market value today.
Katare Ji:
With all respect and reverence Sir Ji the Latest Terroristani GDP Figures are for the Period 01-07-2018 to 30-06-2019.

Today's Exchange Rate will be considered for the period 01-07-2019 to 30-06-2020.

Cheers Image

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 19 Jul 2019 19:01

Pakistan suffers over Rs 8 bn in losses due to airspace closure.

Pakistan has incurred a loss of over Rs 8 billion due to the closure of its airspace following the Balakot air strikes in February, according to a media report on Friday. Pakistan fully closed its airspace on February 26 after the Indian Air Force (IAF) struck a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorist training camp in Balakot in retaliation for the Pulwama attack.


"It's a huge loss for our overall aviation industry. But this restriction hit India harder than Pakistan. The loss of India is almost double.


C H U T I Y A minister knows and is trying to hide from aam abdul the fact of how pakistan screwed itself and suffered losses that are 5 times more then India as its economy is 1/10th the size of India.

But at this juncture detente and harmony are required from both sides," the minister was quoted as saying by the Dawn newspaper.


Heh Heh who is he trying to fool? The porkis were not in a position to sustain the losses any more and hence are trying to make a virtue out of necessity and mouthing detente and harmony :rotfl:

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Jul 2019 19:51

Vips wrote:Pakistan suffers over Rs 8 bn in losses due to airspace closure.

Pakistan has incurred a loss of over Rs 8 billion due to the closure of its airspace following the Balakot air strikes in February, according to a media report on Friday. Pakistan fully closed its airspace on February 26 after the Indian Air Force (IAF) struck a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorist training camp in Balakot in retaliation for the Pulwama attack.


"It's a huge loss for our overall aviation industry. But this restriction hit India harder than Pakistan. The loss of India is almost double.


C H U T I Y A minister knows and is trying to hide from aam abdul the fact of how pakistan screwed itself and suffered losses that are 5 times more then India as its economy is 1/10th the size of India.

But at this juncture detente and harmony are required from both sides," the minister was quoted as saying by the Dawn newspaper.


Heh Heh who is he trying to fool? The porkis were not in a position to sustain the losses any more and hence are trying to make a virtue out of necessity and mouthing detente and harmony :rotfl:
Vips Ji :

Whilst not disputing your comments about the views of Terroristanis and the losses they suffered, methinks that United Airlines being forced to stop their service from NY to India must have the last straw for the U S A!

So in addition to loosing over T. Rs. Eight Billion the Intensity of the Kick of Trump up the Terrorstani Bum - not the Bomb but the Posterior - forced the Terroristanis to beat a hasty retreat and are now saving their skin by withdrawing their Overflight BAN!

Grateful for your views! :rotfl:

Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Jul 2019 22:17

ICSID penalty - Dr Pervez Tahir

In the Reko Diq case registered on January 12, 2012 by Tethyan Copper Company, the dollar-starved Pakistan has been slapped a penalty way beyond its reach by the World Bank-sponsored International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The amount is as large as the financing under the IMF programme. Earlier In the rental power case in 2017, the ICSID had penalised the country to the tune of $900 million. In this case, Pakistan filed a submission on revision on June 18, 2019. The same is being proposed in the Reko Diq case.

The instruments invoked in both cases are the so-called BITs or Bilateral Investment Treaties with Australia (1998) and Turkey (1995). There is a race among emerging economies to ease the doing of business to lure foreign investment. What the host countries offer as investor protection is a crucial element in this. Now these mechanisms are not just about the well-known issues of protection against expropriation, most favoured nation treatment or national treatment. These do not pose a serious challenge any more under the prevalent neoliberal economic order. The most important issue is the investor-state dispute settlement mechanism provided in the BITs. What is agreed here becomes a binding constraint. In our case, the problem starts with these agreements. A lot of haste, making even more waste later, is shown in concluding these agreements. A generalist bureaucracy lacks the requisite expertise anyway. But the rush to arrange an impressive signing ceremony in the presence of foreign dignitaries prevents the use of whatever professional advice is available. There are a number of secret tribunals to choose from, the least secretive of them being ICSID. It has a clear bias towards investors as only they are allowed to sue the host government, not vice versa. If the country defaults in paying the compensation awarded, its assets abroad can be frozen. Small wonder, companies filed 57 new cases in 2018 alone. Most of these cases are against emerging states. Pakistan has been taken to ICSID eight times.

A serious issue is the autonomy of national policymaking. After a BIT has come into effect, any policy change of the host government or a piece of legislation affecting the profits of the investor can trigger arbitration proceedings. These can be quite arbitrary and the mechanisms are extra-legal. What exactly happens in these tribunals remains shrouded in secrecy? Legal costs run into millions of dollars and billions have to be paid as compensation. In Pakistan’s case, the trigger has been the allegations of corruption. One government signs an agreement with a company and the succeeding government or the opposition parties smell a rat. An activist judiciary intervenes, without much expertise in white-collar crime or the economics of investment treaties, to cancel the deals just to play to the gallery. The companies sue and the lawyers on both sides make a lot of money, with those on our side led by economically illiterate attorney generals and a semi-literate cohort of lawyers. The results are there for all to see. In one case, the Supreme Court judgment has been declared arbitrary. Details about the latest award are not known, but the contents are not hard to guess. The Commission of Inquiry announced on Reko Diq should investigate the disaster, fix responsibility and draw lessons for future. However, an overall review of all the BITs is in order to avoid a bits and pieces approach. Again, the expertise may be an issue. Approaching experts abroad directly rather than technical assistance from donors may add more value.

Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Jul 2019 18:18

BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,031.13 - Pt. Change : -305.88 - % Change : -0.80

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,44,76,204.02 - $ 1 / I N R = 68.9525

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,099.45 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,584.55 - Change : 125.78 - % Change : 0.39%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,594,078,355,504 / T R =160.2696

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.14 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.03 : 1


CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Jul 2019 04:51

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,982.74 - Pt. Change : -48.39 - % Change : -0.13

Market Capitalization of B S E Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,44,55,429.64 - $ 1 / INR : 68.9900

Market Capitalization of BS E Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,095.29 Billion

Current Index : 32,715.88 – Change : 131.33 - % Change : 0.4%

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,598,992,688,245 - $ 1 / Tr : 160.6621

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.07 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.02 : 1


Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Jul 2019 04:58

Automobile sector stares at 40-60pc skid in sales, 150,000 job cuts
LAHORE: Automobile sales may witness a steep downslide of 40-60 percent in fiscal year 2019/20, rendering about 150,000 people jobless, industry forecast suggests.
Auto industry had forecasted to increase its sales to 0.3 million by 2021 and half a million units by 2022; however, changes in the policy, new taxes with increasing input cost and unpredictable surge in rupee-dollar parity resulted in jacking up car prices, which ultimately cut down sales.
Industry sales tumbled against its forecast for the last three months. Similarly, the car and LCV sales went down by 7 percent during the last fiscal to 240,335 units from the previous year. There has been a drastic cut in tractor production also. But more worryingly, the downslide is not stopping in near-to-medium term at least, say market insiders.
From one of the best performing sectors in recent years to the currently bleak scenario, the industry has been prompted to make major revisions in manufacturing plan by the main players and new entrants.
It is based on these factors pointing to 40 percent cut in present level of manufacturing that industry representatives on condition of anonymity point to 100,000 to 150,000 job losses within a year.
Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Jul 2019 05:29

X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

Over 50% families can’t have two meals a day - Tufail Ahmed

KARACHI: Nearly half of all households in Pakistan are unable to meet their nutritional needs, the first ever survey of its kind in the country has revealed.

According to the National Nutrition Survey 2018 – a copy of which is available with The Express Tribune – poverty keeps more than 50 per cent of Pakistani families from having two meals a day, leading to severe dietary deficiencies.

As a result, as many as 40.2 per cent of all children in the country are affected by chronic malnutrition and stunted growth, which inhibits both their cognitive and physical development, the exercise carried out by the Ministry of National Health Services (NHS) revealed.

The survey also discovered that 36.9 per cent of Pakistani households remain food insecure and lack reliable access to affordable nutritious food in sufficient amounts.

To counter the nutritional emergency as quickly as possible, the federal government has already drafted a food fortification bill for the first time in Pakistan’s history, Pakistan Pediatric Association (PPA) Secretary General Dr Khalid Shafi said. The bill, among other things, will make the addition of micronutrients in items like flour and ghee mandatory, he told The Express Tribune.

The objective of the survey, which will be released publicly today in a ceremony in Karachi, is to draw the attention of policymaking institutes towards the ever growing problem of malnutrition among Pakistani children.

One of the biggest ever

The survey is one of the biggest in Pakistan’s history and covers both the rural and urban population of all four provinces, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. As many as 115,600 families, including 145,324 women, 76,742 children under five years of age and 145,847 minors aged between 10 and 19 years were studied during the course of the survey.

Teams conducting the research took blood and urine samples from participants and investigated water quality and sewerage situation in and around their homes to determine their natural body development and whether it was hindered by diseases or lack of nutrients.

Participants were also interviewed to ascertain their industrial independence, level of education and in the case of women and infants, breastfeeding ratios.

Startling revelations

Among the key findings of the survey is that only 48.4 per cent of women in Pakistan breastfeed their children during infancy. It also found malnutrition to be at least partially a hereditary issue as women who lacked necessary nutrients in their diet gave birth to weak children.

The study pointed out that the early years of child are extremely important in terms of nourishment and malnutrition at this stage hinders cognitive and physical development, affecting both growth and immunities in the long run.

Four out of every 10 children under the age of five in Pakistan were discovered to be affected by stunted growth and lack of education[/b ]and awareness was found to be a significant factor behind this. The study also discovered [b]dietary discrimination in the favour of boys over girls in a significant number of families in the country.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, National Institute of Child Health Chairman Prof Jamal Raza noted that it is alarming that the percentage of children suffering from malnutrition in Pakistan is the same as 24 years ago. He stressed the importance of a proper diet during pregnancy, urging expecting mothers to realise that what they eat is transferred directly to their children.

Dr Shafi, meanwhile, pointed out that being underweight in children often result in both underdeveloped cognitive capacities and a history of recurring medical problems.

Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Jul 2019 17:28

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Pakistan’s budget has lost credibility: World Bank - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s budget has further lost its credibility and the public finance management system has also deteriorated, according to a draft report of the World Bank that has downgraded the country’s ranking on almost all 31 fiscal management-related indicators.

The Washington-based lender shared the final draft of the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) report with the Ministry of Finance in June. The report carries an objective assessment of Pakistan’s public finance management system and its budgets from fiscal year 2015-16 to 2017-18.

But the findings reflect extremely poor performance of the Ministry of Finance that failed to carry out its responsibility and let the fiscal rules violated.

World Bank approves $722 million loan for Pakistan

The World Bank was facing pressure from the Ministry of Finance to soften its report but a senior official of the World Bank told The Express Tribune that on the lender’s part the report was final.

Sources said various wings of the Ministry of Finance were putting responsibility on each other but so far no action had been taken in that regard.

When compared with a similar assessment that the World Bank carried out in 2012, the country fared poorer on almost all indicators and seven key pillars. There were hardly two indicators where the score improved while on the other two the score remained unchanged.

In 2012, the country had secured five A grades – the highest score – but in the 2019 assessment there was not even a single indicator where it got A. Pakistan lost the highest score on critical indicators like classification of budget, comprehensiveness of budget information, transparency in inter-governmental fiscal operations, participation in budget process and predictability of direct budget support.

The lowest score is D plus and D. In 2012, the country got only six Ds and D plus but the lowest score reached a staggering 13 in 2019, reflecting extremely poor performance of the finance ministry. In 2012, there were 10 Cs, average score – a figure that stood at eight in 2019.

The final draft of the report showed that Pakistan was assigned the lowest score ‘D’ on the indicators of reliability of budget due to higher-than-budgeted expenditures and low revenue collection, extent of unreported government operations, public access to key fiscal operations, effectiveness of internal audit, lack of information about service delivery, poor quality and timeliness of annual financial statements, public assets and investment management, and revenue administration.

Pakistan signs $918m loan agreement with World Bank

In 2012, the country fared well on eight indicators and secured B and B plus and in 2019 it got 10 Bs and B plus. These included budget classification, transfer of resources to provinces, fiscal risk reporting, debt management, macroeconomic and fiscal forecasting, fiscal strategy, budget preparations, procurement management and financial data integrity.

“Despite the progress achieved in different areas, there are still challenges in making the public finance management framework at the federal level a fully effective and efficient component of Pakistan’s system of governance,” said the report.

The report acknowledged the importance of the 18th Constitutional Amendment that “re-asserted the federalist character of the Pakistani state”, which set the stage for provincial governments to improve local-level participation.

The Ministry of Finance declined to comment on the report’s findings, saying, “The PEFA report has not been finalised yet, therefore, the ministry cannot comment on it at the moment.”

The public finance management performance has been gauged on the basis of seven pillars of budget reliability, transparency of public finances, management of assets and liabilities, policy-based fiscal strategy and budgeting, predictability and control in budget execution, accounting and report and external scrutiny and audit.

The World Bank has completed the assessment in collaboration with the federal government and the European Union. The assessment started in December 2018 and it covered three financial years 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 when the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) was in power.

The issues identified in the report remained unaddressed even in the last fiscal year 2018-19, which was the first year of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government.

There are “inadequacies in fiscal discipline evidenced in expenditure and revenue overturns”, said the final draft report. The report found that internal audit control functions were very weak, there was poor revenue estimation and expenditure estimates were based on “inflated revenue targets”.

The Public Accounts Committee has repeatedly observed lack of interest of the executive to comply with its directions, underlined the report. The report recommended making the office of the Auditor General of Pakistan “independent” from the executive for an effective oversight of expenditures.

Pakistan had not developed an effective cash management system, which allowed government entities to keep public money in private commercial bank accounts, said the report.

As of the end of 2017, Rs2.3 trillion had been parked in 450,000 accounts, maintained in private commercial banks. This money could not be audited, according to the draft report.

CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Jul 2019 18:37

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,882.79 - Pt. Change : +51.81 - % Change : +0.14

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,43,82,243.21 - $ 1 = I N R : 68.9075

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,087.18 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,103.27 – Change : -343.13 - % Change : -1.07%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,464,564,102,631 - $ 1 / T R : 160.8682

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.19 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.93 : 1


CheersImage

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 26 Jul 2019 18:39

Foreign exchange: SBP reserves fall 4.9% to $7.6b.

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank plunged 4.9% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

Earlier, the reserves had spiralled downwards, falling below the $7-billion mark, which raised concern over Pakistan’s ability to meet its financing requirements. However, financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and other friendly nations helped shore up the foreign exchange reserves.

On July 19, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $7,611.9 million, down $389.4 million compared with $8,001.3 million in the previous week.The decrease in reserves was due to external debt servicing and other official payments, the statement added.

Overall, liquid foreign currency reserves, held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $14,862.4 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $7,250.5 million.

Pakistan received its first tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of $991.4 million on July 9, which helped bolster the reserves. :D
Previously, the reserves had jumped on account of $2.5 billion in inflows from China. :D

Over time, the declining reserves have forced the central bank to let the rupee depreciate massively, sparking concern about the country’s ability to finance a hefty import bill as well as meet debt obligations in coming months.

In April last year, the SBP’s reserves increased $593 million due to official inflows. (Official inflows in paki speak means aid and begging) A few months ago, the reserves surged due to official inflows including $622 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $106 million from the World Bank. The SBP also received $350 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) earlier. :D

In January last year, the SBP made a $500-million loan repayment to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China.

So foreign exchange reserves have decreased after more then $12 Billion received from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China and Qatar). All that money is already flushed down pakistan :rotfl:

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Jul 2019 19:44

Vips wrote:Foreign exchange: SBP reserves fall 4.9% to $7.6b.

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank plunged 4.9% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

Earlier, the reserves had spiralled downwards, falling below the $7-billion mark, which raised concern over Pakistan’s ability to meet its financing requirements. However, financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and other friendly nations helped shore up the foreign exchange reserves.

On July 19, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $7,611.9 million, down $389.4 million compared with $8,001.3 million in the previous week.The decrease in reserves was due to external debt servicing and other official payments, the statement added.

Overall, liquid foreign currency reserves, held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $14,862.4 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $7,250.5 million.

Pakistan received its first tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of $991.4 million on July 9, which helped bolster the reserves. :D
Previously, the reserves had jumped on account of $2.5 billion in inflows from China. :D

Over time, the declining reserves have forced the central bank to let the rupee depreciate massively, sparking concern about the country’s ability to finance a hefty import bill as well as meet debt obligations in coming months.

In April last year, the SBP’s reserves increased $593 million due to official inflows. (Official inflows in paki speak means aid and begging) A few months ago, the reserves surged due to official inflows including $622 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $106 million from the World Bank. The SBP also received $350 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) earlier. :D

In January last year, the SBP made a $500-million loan repayment to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China.

So foreign exchange reserves have decreased after more then $12 Billion received from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China and Qatar). All that money is already flushed down pakistan :rotfl:
Vips Ji :

Please note that we really are not aware of the veracity of Terroristan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves.

I refer you to the following Article :
Alarm bells – Dr. Farrukh Salem – 06-01-2019
Alarm bell number 1: Never in our history have our net international reserves stood at negative $11 billion. Are we facing an economic crisis? An economy facing an “economic crisis will most likely experience a drying up of liquidity, a falling GDP and rising prices due to inflation

Only a “specialist” who has kept an account of Terroristan’s “Foreign Exchange Loans” received in the last six months can gauge the Amount of Terroristani "NEGATIVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES”!

IMHO : This Negative Foreign Exchange reserves should be in a minimum of US$ 25 Billion! if not more!

CheersImage

Rishi_Tri
BRFite
Posts: 366
Joined: 13 Feb 2017 14:49

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishi_Tri » 28 Jul 2019 01:49

This is in context of Chandrayaan II but captures many of the facts discussed in this thread. Has ton of good words about Education System and Technology!


Anujan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6912
Joined: 27 May 2007 03:55

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 28 Jul 2019 09:13

Indian rockets seem to be made of short segments, painted in darker colors with payload fairing fully covering the payload. Indians have also seem to have taken the clustered engine approach, using up to eight engines in a single stage.

The rockets developed by SUPARCO seem to have longer motor casing, with lighter paint schemes with no heatshied/payload fairing on the tip. SUPARCO seems to have taken the route of having one massive engine doing the job of eight Indian engines.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4021
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sanjaykumar » 28 Jul 2019 10:28

Don’t know about that. But Pakistan has never had a space launch failure. Indians should introspect.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 958
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nandakumar » 28 Jul 2019 10:52

Anujan wrote:Indian rockets seem to be made of short segments, painted in darker colors with payload fairing fully covering the payload. Indians have also seem to have taken the clustered engine approach, using up to eight engines in a single stage.

The rockets developed by SUPARCO seem to have longer motor casing, with lighter paint schemes with no heatshied/payload fairing on the tip. SUPARCO seems to have taken the route of having one massive engine doing the job of eight Indian engines.

They are on course for establishing the phenomenon of one Pakistani is equal to 10 Indians.

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Jul 2019 23:51

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Image

CheersImage


Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Jul 2019 01:15

Rishi_Tri wrote:Collated the following data --

Image
Rishi_Tri Ji :

PRESS NOTE ON PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2018-19 AND QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER (Q4) OF 2018-19 - 31st May 2019.

On Friday 29-03-2019 – Last Working Day in March 2019– The last day in March 2019 – the rate was $ 1 / IN Rs : 69.2825

GDP @ CURRENT PRICES= Rs 19,010,164 Crores = Rs. 190,101.64 Billion = US$ 2,743.86 Billion

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) – 31-03-2019 Third Quarter :

GDP (Current Market Price) : US$ 274.048 Billion

US$ last day weighted avg. exchange rate : Rs : 140.7

Expect End of Fourth Quarter – End of Financial Year 2018-2019 – 30-06-2019 Conversion Rate US$ = 145 to 150 Range.

Will post Actual Financial Year 2018-2019 GDP after Mid September 2019.

CheersImage

Rishi_Tri
BRFite
Posts: 366
Joined: 13 Feb 2017 14:49

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishi_Tri » 29 Jul 2019 04:23

Peregrine wrote:
Rishi_Tri wrote:Collated the following data --

Image
Rishi_Tri Ji :

PRESS NOTE ON PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2018-19 AND QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER (Q4) OF 2018-19 - 31st May 2019.

On Friday 29-03-2019 – Last Working Day in March 2019– The last day in March 2019 – the rate was $ 1 / IN Rs : 69.2825

GDP @ CURRENT PRICES= Rs 19,010,164 Crores = Rs. 190,101.64 Billion = [b]US$ 2,743.86 Billion[/b]

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities - Outstanding Provisional - (Billion US$) – 31-03-2019 Third Quarter :

GDP (Current Market Price) : [b]US$ 274.048 Billion[/b]

US$ last day weighted avg. exchange rate : Rs : 140.7

Expect End of Fourth Quarter – End of Financial Year 2018-2019 – 30-06-2019 Conversion Rate US$ = 145 to 150 Range.

Will post Actual Financial Year 2018-2019 GDP after Mid September 2019.

CheersImage


Thanks for these numbers. Makes the difference starker. All the IMF money is essentially going towards maintaining the MI complex. The forex reserves being at the point they are mean the country is as good as bankrupt - surviving on foreign dole. Any other country would have failed by now.

Rohit_K
BRFite
Posts: 541
Joined: 09 Nov 2006 22:53
Location: atop Sukkur Barage

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rohit_K » 29 Jul 2019 05:40

Asad Umar: Going to the IMF made things worse for the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-CUhO6L8lU

Full video-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wLQaHqudzU

menon s
BRFite
Posts: 678
Joined: 01 May 2010 09:51
Location: Bangalore

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 29 Jul 2019 15:00

Im a Little disturbed by this, there is only 41,484 registered Sales tax payers in the entirety of Pakistan?
Can this be true? there are 1,83,000 Sales tax registered return filers in the state of Kerala!
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/g ... pakistanis

This is not the case of a few rotten eggs.....the basket itself is rotten!


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2012248/2- ... -chairman/

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 29 Jul 2019 18:19

Just imagine the expenses that Porkistan must be incurring to maintain/enforce this tax structure . I bet the number of employees in the Sales tax department would be equivalent or more then the number of tax payers. :rotfl:

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Jul 2019 19:12

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,686.37 - Pt. Change : -196.42 - % Change : 0.52%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,42,45,433.92 - $ 1 / I N R : 68.8925

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,067.78 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,734.23 - Change : -369.04 - % Change : 1.16%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,405,292,078,511 - $ 1 / T R : 160.7251

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.85 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.99 : 1


CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Jul 2019 23:24

The new slogan of Terroristan : DEBT is the WEALTH of the Terroristani Economy! :rotfl:

Rs200bn to be raised for circular debt payment - Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD: Amid ongoing probes into dollar-based tariff indexations, ‘unnatural profits’ in the power sector and last year’s capacity payments of over Rs466 billion, the government will be raising about Rs200bn through Islamic bonds next month to reduce circular debt after securing about Rs11bn relief from independent power producers (IPPs).
The finance ministry has called a meeting of presidents of 10 commercial banks in the country on Monday (today) to finalise a term sheet for Pakistan Energy Sukuk-II amounting to Rs200bn for power sector liquidity through Power Holding (Pvt) Limited — an assetless shell company of the power division. Finance Secretary Naveed Kamran Baloch will lead the government side.
The consortium, led by Meezan Islamic Bank, comprises nine other commercial banks — Habib Bank, Bank Alfalah, Bank Islami, Dubai Islamic Bank, Bank Al-Habib, Bank Albaraka, National Bank of Pakistan, United Bank and Faisal Islamic Bank. This will be the second Sukuk financing worth Rs. 400bn for the power sector in less than six months. ANOTHER US$ 2.5 BILLION "Wealth Creation of the Terroristani Economy!
The government had raised Rs200bn through Pakistan Musharqa Sukuk in March this year to bail out the power sector after the IPPs started international arbitrations to secure their overdue unpaid bills. The consortium at the time consisted of six banks — Meezan Islamic Bank, Bank Islami Pakistan, Faysal Bank Limited, MCB Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and Al-Baraka Bank.
Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Jul 2019 00:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wLQaHqudzU


Asad Umar Complete Speech on Pakistan Economy - Past Dynamics & Future Outlook
8 Min 25 Sec Onwards – Rupee Overvalued and Pakistan had Gone Bankrupt

Cheers Image

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Jul 2019 16:30

X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

All Hail World Bank Nominee Abdul Hafeez Shaikh! :rotfl:

Image

CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Jul 2019 16:50

X Posted on the Indian Economy News & Discussion Thread

Anshula Kant Appointed World Bank Group Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer

WASHINGTON, July 12, 2019—World Bank Group President David Malpass today announced the appointment of Anshula Kant as Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of the World Bank Group. Ms. Kant, an Indian national, is currently a Managing Director of the State Bank of India (SBI), where she previously served as Chief Financial Officer.

“I am very pleased to appoint Anshula Kant as World Bank Group Managing Director and CFO. Anshula brings more than 35 years of expertise in finance, banking, and innovative use of technology through her work as CFO of the State Bank of India,” said Malpass. “She’s excelled at a diverse array of leadership challenges including risk, treasury, funding, regulatory compliance and operations. I look forward to welcoming her to our management team as we work to increase our effectiveness in supporting good development outcomes.”

As Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer, Kant will be responsible for financial and risk management of the World Bank Group, reporting to the President. Among other key management duties, her work will include oversight of financial reporting, risk management, and working closely with the World Bank CEO on mobilization of IDA and other financial resources.

As CFO of SBI, Kant managed $38 billion of revenues and total assets of $500 billion. Stewarding the organization, she greatly improved the capital base and focused on the long-term sustainability of SBI within her mandate. She has been a Managing Director and member of the Board since September 2018.

With direct responsibility for the SBI’s Risk, Compliance, and Stressed Asset Portfolio, Kant led the creation of investment opportunities while empowering risk management throughout the bank. She held several positions across the organization and helped navigate a diverse array of leadership challenges.

Kant, a native of India, is a graduate in Economic Honours from Lady Shri Ram College for Women and a Post-Graduate in Economics from Delhi School of Economics.

Kant’s start date will be announced shortly.

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2020/010/EXC

CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Jul 2019 18:31

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,397.24 – Pt. Change : -289.13 - % Change : 0.77%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,73,089.85 - $ 1 / 69.0275

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,038.77 Billion

P S E

Current Index: 31,658.12 – Change : -76.11 – Change : -0.24%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,360,543,437,834 - $ 1 / 160.7251

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.57 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.52 : 1


CheersImage

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 903
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kancha » 01 Aug 2019 21:20

CPEC is dead. Somebody tell Beijing

It’s over. If ever there was a thought within Pakistan’s leadership — political, military, and business — that Beijing could replace Washington as the foreign capital with the most influence in Islamabad, that idea is now firmly dead. We just have not gotten around to telling China yet.
Over the past few weeks, Profit has spoken to several sources in both Pakistan’s business elite circles as well as people who are familiar with the thought process of the military leadership and the picture emerging is not a favourable one of the relationship with China: the more Pakistanis learn about the true costs of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the less inclined they are to want to participate any further than we already have.

.
.

The system that China has designed, therefore, is geared towards a completely different goal: unlike the United States, which was comfortable sharing its wealth and power as a means of growing wealth for both itself and its allies, China wants to create a global system where wealth and power flow in the direction of China as a means of strengthening it relative to its main rival (the United States), even if that means weakening its allies in the process.
This latter system has obvious flaws from the perspective of Pakistan, which has seen itself as one of modern China’s oldest and staunchest allies. The deal that Islamabad is getting from Beijing in the form of CPEC looks impressive from a distance, but is in fact far from a mutually beneficial relationship. CPEC makes British colonialism in South Asia look generous by comparison.

.
.

The biggest so-called mystery about CPEC is as follows: if CPEC was supposed to be such a huge bonanza for Pakistan in terms of investment, which is it not showing up in the foreign direct investment (FDI) numbers? Why is Pakistan’s current account balance still negative? In fact, why is Pakistan’s current account balance actually getting worse?
The answer is relatively straightforward: because CPEC is not an investment into Pakistan, it is structured as a resource extraction exercise. Here is how it works: China announces that it has invested in a project in Pakistan worth, let’s say $1 billion. That $1 billion, however, is required to mostly be spent on Chinese equipment, and labour, a significant portion of which is to be imported from China as well, with very little by way of supplies coming from the local economy.
That $1 billion, therefore, never hits Pakistan’s economy as an investment. It is $1 billion that goes from the Chinese government or state-owned company to a state-owned company within China to pay for equipment. Even the Chinese labour gets its salaries deposited into bank accounts within China. The money, in other words, stays completely within China and so never shows up as foreign investment into Pakistan.
Where it does show up is in the trade statistics: that $1 billion of equipment will show up as an import, against which Pakistan will have to arrange foreign currency from somewhere. And it will show up as a liability on the balance sheets of whichever company or government entity is contracting with the Chinese government or state-owned company.
Let us recap what we get and what China gets out of this so-called $1 billion investment.
China gets:
· $1 billion in sales for a Chinese state-owned company
· $1 billion in new loans for a Chinese state-owned bank at very high interest rates
Pakistan gets:
· $0 in investment
· $1 billion in imports and increase in net trade deficit
· $1 billion in liabilities for a Pakistani company or government entity
As is evident from the above, this is an arrangement designed purely to benefit one party and that party is not Pakistan. It could still work out in Pakistan’s favour if the economic value of the asset being built was greater than the $1 billion in liabilities taken on to build it. Unfortunately, more often than not, it is far from clear as to whether that is the case.

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Aug 2019 04:10

Pakistanis had dreams of China helping it in becoming an export hub by relocating some its $$ earning/exporting industrial units to Pakistan. One of the talk show anchors even mentioned a figure $60 Billion of exports from CPEC economic zones :lol:

Reality check: The status of economic zone today is not a single unit is operational and china has recently relocated some of its labor intensive goods manufacturing to Vietnam :rotfl:

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Aug 2019 07:09

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,018.32 - Pt. Change : -462.80 : % Change : 1.23%

Market Capitalization of B S E Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,39,87,400.37 - $ 1 / 69.2450

Market Capitalization of B S E Listed Co. (US $.) : 2,030.13 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,839.11 – Change : -99.37 - % Change : -0.31%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,365.139,133,412 - $ 1 / 159.6493

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (US $. ) : 39.87 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.92 : 1


Cheers Image

CalvinH
BRFite
Posts: 591
Joined: 15 Jul 2007 04:14

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 02 Aug 2019 09:41

kancha wrote:CPEC is dead. Somebody tell Beijing

It’s over. If ever there was a thought within Pakistan’s leadership — political, military, and business — that Beijing could replace Washington as the foreign capital with the most influence in Islamabad, that idea is now firmly dead.


Just one good trip and promise of few dollars and Pakistan is ready to switch sides (again)

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Aug 2019 18:43

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,118.22 - Pt. Change : +99.90 – % Change : +0.27

Market Capitalization of B S E Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,39,98,244.93 - $ 1 / I N R : 69.7750

Market Capitalization of B S E Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,096.33 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,666.41 – Change : -172.70 - % Change : -0.55%

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,344,971,395,413 - $ 1 – T R : 159.5525

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.57 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.74 : 1


CheersImage

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Aug 2019 18:51

CalvinH wrote:
kancha wrote:CPEC is dead. Somebody tell Beijing

It’s over. If ever there was a thought within Pakistan’s leadership — political, military, and business — that Beijing could replace Washington as the foreign capital with the most influence in Islamabad, that idea is now firmly dead.


Just one good trip and promise of few dollars and Pakistan is ready to switch sides (again)


It is not just the money, it is the military equipment(aid) that is the driving force. In view of India's planned military gear acquisition pakistan knows that only Uncle Sam can give it what is required to have a semblance of parity with India. China simply does not have the sophisticated equivalent or is not willing to give for free what they require and the porkis simply do not have the money to buy uber expensive European stuff.

Pakistan has as per a Defense AV report on youtube demanded F16's, Boeing anti submarine Poseidon planes, latest version of AMRAAM's and other equipment.

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Aug 2019 00:32

Image

CheersImage

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7600
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Aug 2019 03:35

Image

CheersImage


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Guddu, kPrakash, Narad, SBajwa, srin and 66 guests