Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Aug 2019 14:55

ADB to provide $1.3b worth of loans to Pakistan in Nov - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD.:
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday assured to give loans worth $1 billion for budgetary support and $300 million for energy sector reforms in November but complained about slow implementation on schemes, which delayed the release of billions of dollars approved under project loans.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 30 Aug 2019 21:46

Not sure where to put this .. but worth a laugh :((




In a bizarre incident, Pakistani Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed got an electric shock while addressing a gathering on Friday.In a video which has gone viral on social media, Rashid while addressing the gathering says “hum tumhari Modi niyaton se waqif hain (we are aware of your intentions, Narendra Modi)”. The second he passes the comment against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he gets an electric shock. “Current lag gaya. Khair koi baat nahi. Mera khayal hai, current aa gaya. Modi is jalse ko nakam nahi kr sakta (I think it was current. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot foil this meeting),” the Pakistani minister added. The Pakistani Minister is infamous for being a motor mouth. On August 28, he had predicted that a full-blown war between India and Pakistan may likely occur in the month of “October or the next month.” While addressing media in Rawalpindi, Rashid had claimed that ‘decisive time for Kashmir’s struggle’ has come. “This is going to be the last war between both countries,” he was quoted as saying by Pakistan Today. The remark by Pakistan Minister came two days after Prime Minister Imran Khan threatened India of a nuclear war. Khan in a televised address said that his country will go to any extent for Kashmir and asserted that Islamabad wouldn’t be afraid of using its nuclear powers for Kashmir. Pakistan has been disturbed by the Indian government’s move to strip the special status accorded to Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 and has found itself completely isolated despite desperate attempts aimed at internationalising the issue.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 31 Aug 2019 01:26



:lol: A defaulter is made the minister of the department he owes money to and then he proceeds to give amnesty to himself. Billions of rupees written off by just issuing a gazette notification without inviting any public comments.
Rs 256 Billion were written off by previous governments in the past 50+ years and Imran Khan has written off Rs 700 Billion in just one year. Imran Khan when in opposition was crusading against these very beneficiaries and accusing Nawaz Sharif of corruption!!!
This is how Imran Khan will enrich himself and his cabinet ministers while ruling a bankrupt country. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 31 Aug 2019 12:35

https://twitter.com/i/status/1167640506379247618
Well Pa-is being Pa-is even when eating humble pie have to show H&D :lol:
Imm the Dim braggadocio about helping Indian poor :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Sep 2019 02:11

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,332.79 - Pt. Change : +263.86 - % Change : +0.71

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,98,451.66 - $ 1 / I N R 71.6475

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,967.75 Billion

P S E

PSX closes seventh consecutive month in red

Current Index : 29,672.12 – Change : -486.84 - % Change : -1.64% - High : 30,309.64
Low : 29,559.82

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,082,042,861,140 – $ 1 / T R 157.20

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $,) : 38.69 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.86 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Sep 2019 22:19

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,332.79 - Pt. Change : +263.86 - % Change : +0.71

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,98,451.66 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.6475

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,967.72 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,057.29 – Change : 385.17 - % Change : 1.28% - High 30,178.57 – Low :29,672.12

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,138,959,388,019 - $ 1 / T R = 157.20

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.05 Billion

B S E : P S E : 50.39 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Sep 2019 22:29

A bad first year - Khaleeq Kiani
The story of last fiscal year’s (2018-19) economic performance is almost complete now. There is some good news but it is overshadowed by its negative aspects, giving an overall confusing direction of the markets and the economy on a whole.
The fiscal side showed a grim picture in 2018-19 and appears to remain a challenge throughout the current year, if not beyond. The market sentiment and investor confidence remain uncertain. The good thing is that the government seems beginning to listen to these alarm bells that it used to ignored until the close of the fiscal year ending June 2019.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Sep 2019 15:18

PTI govt defends Rs208b waiver for industrialists
ISLAMABAD: The government on Monday tried to justify a waiver of over Rs200 billion for business tycoons saying it was not a ‘free lunch’ and that the move was taken ‘in the best interest’ of the nation.
Image :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Sep 2019 00:41

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,562.91 - Pt. Change : -769.88 - % Change

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,38,42,866.10 - $ 1 / I N R = 72.59

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,907.00 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 29,809.68 – Change : -247.61 - % Change : -0.83% - High : 30,247.32
Low : 29,739.58

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 6,092,765,847,605 - $ 1 / T R = 157.20

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 38.76 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.20 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Sep 2019 00:52

Economic situation going from bad to worse - Ansar Abbasi

ISLAMABAD: The country’s economic situation a few months back was bad but now it is worse as the official figures of key economic indicators mostly show financial situation of the country really disappointing.

Instead of showing any improvement after the IMF deal, the country’s economic situation has further deteriorated amid reports that the former finance secretary Younis Dhaga had warned the government that the IMF deal would be disastrous for the country.

Also read: FBR faces Rs68 bn shortfall in July, August

Dhaga, however, was removed and the government had appointed another officer as secretary finance. Because of his serious reservations about the government-IMF negotiations, Younis Dhaga, despite being secretary finance, had withdrawn himself from the IMF negotiations and did not attend the last three sessions.

Related: State entities losses rise to unprecedented Rs191.5 bn

The other day, the government admitted that the journey for improvement of economy was not easy, as tax receipts could not be increased. He said, “There are challenges on economic front, but there should be some element of fairness in criticism. It will be unfair to hold this government responsible for adding Rs7.6 trillion to debt burden.

More: Journey of economic revival not easy: Hafeez Shaikh

When asked about worsening fiscal position where the deficit escalated to 8.9 percent of GDP for last fiscal year, the government said that out of total collected tax revenue of Rs3.8 trillion, debt servicing consumed Rs2.1 trillion and then after providing share to provinces, the government had to borrow to meet defence, development and running of the government expenditure.

A comparison of macro-indicators at end fiscal year 2018 with FY 2019 suggests that there has been a fast track deterioration of the economic situation during the last one year of the PTI rule.

The following are the key indicators showing how things have gone wrong with the Pakistan’s economy.

- GDP growth was recorded at 5.8 percent in 2018. As a result of slowdown in economy, growth rate for 2019 is expected to be 3 percent or even less.

- Fiscal deficit has increased to Rs3.4 trillion at the end of June 2019 compared to Rs2.2 trillion when PML-N government left in June 2018. Amount wise this is the largest ever deficit in our history. In terms of percentage, fiscal deficit has been recorded at 8.9 percent compared to 6.6 percent on June end 2018. As percentage of GDP, 8.9 percent is the highest in last 30 years and 8.9 percent also has to be seen against PTI’s own set target of 5.1 percent in September last year. Missing the target by miles reflect complete lack of understanding on the part of PTI’s economic team. The high fiscal deficit has a direct consequence on the amount of borrowing as the following debt numbers will reflect.

- Total debt and liabilities on the end of June 2018 was Rs30 trillion, which has now gone up to Rs40 trillion. This is the largest ever increase in debt and liabilities in one year. Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities in first 71 years was Rs30 trillion but under PTI government, one third more has been accumulated. This is unprecedented and reflects poor management of expenditure and revenue. If the trend continues like this, it is feared, the whole economic structure would collapse as our economy will not be able to sustain this.

- Tax revenue was at a record level at more than Rs3,800 billion in 2018. First time in Pakistan history, tax revenue didn’t register any increase during 2019. During PML-N Government’s five years, the tax revenue increased 20 percent per annum in 4 out of 5 years. This was in spite of extremely low inflation and without significant devaluation - the two factors that automatically help increase tax revenues. It is said that the current revenue target of Rs5,550 billion seems very difficult to be achieved. It’s about 44 percent higher than the last year’s actual collection.

- Inflation was at a record low at 3.9 percent in 2018. Last inflation figure reported by the present government is 10.3 percent.

- SBP policy (interest) rate was 6.50 percent in mid-2018. It has been to 13.25 percent by the PTI government.

- Stock Market was 42,847 at end PML-N government. It’s now hovering around 30,000 after touching 28,000.

- Foreign exchange reserves were $15,913 million (SBP reserves $9,510 million) at end of PML-N government. Now it’s $15,630 (SBP reserves $8,271 million). This is in spite of around $12 billion obtained from friendly countries and IMF in last one year.

- The only positive thing happened during the last one year is that the current account deficit which improved during PTI government. It was $19,897 million (6.3 percent of GDP) during 2018 fiscal year. It’s now $13,508 million (4.8 percent of GDP) in 2019. It’s ideal to reduce current account deficit by increasing exports. That has the best impact on the economy. The government, however, did it without increasing exports but due to reduction in imports. It is said that the policy to impact imports has considerably slowed down the economy.

- Compared to GDP of $313 billion in 2018, our GDP has come down to $280 billion - a reduction of $33 billion only to achieve reduction of $4 billion in imports.

- As a result of GDP decline, per capita GDP has gone down by more than 8 percent.

- Large scale manufacturing has had negative growth during last one year.

- Agriculture growth was less than 1 percent.

- Massive currency devaluation took place with rupee going from 116 by end of PML-N government to around 160. This is the largest devaluation in last several decades with significant downside impact on our economy.

- FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has plummeted and is down by more than 50 percent.

- As a result of significant reduction in growth and high inflation, the common Pakistani has been the worst affected. In last one year, more than 45 lac people have gone below the poverty line. In addition more than 15 lac people have lost their jobs.

According to official projections, the GDP growth is expected to be around 2.4 percent while inflation will be in the range of 13 percent to 15 percent. The discount rate is expected to go further up in the range of 15 percent-16 percent.

As a result, during the present fiscal year about five million people will go below the poverty line. This is on top of 4.5 million people who suffered this misery past one year. With declining growth rate, another 1.5 million or more Pakistanis will become unemployed.

In the first two years of PTI rule, it is feared that about three million Pakistanis will become unemployed as against the party’s commitment of providing 10 million jobs over five years.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Sep 2019 21:49

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,724.74 - Pt. Change : +161.83 - % Change : +0.44

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,38,72,621.23 - $ 1 / I N R = 72.2550

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,919.95 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,244.73 – Change : 435.05 - % Change : 1.44% - High : 30,378.13 - Low : 29,468.29

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,167,135,845,147 - $ 1 / 156.8457

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.32 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.83 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Sep 2019 23:54

Imran Looser Niazi performs another U Turn as per Orders from Buj Bahadur

PM Imran backtracks on GIDC waiver - Shahbaz Rana

Imran Khan directed to withdraw GIDC Ordinance on Wednesday after his government faced criticism for compromising transparency and promoting bad governance.
The latest move came after the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government faced criticism for waiving Rs300 billion worth GIDC dues in favour of a few industrialists. The ordinance was issued on August 27 – days after The Express Tribune reported about the government’s plan to favour a handful of industrialists.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Sep 2019 03:06

There was a comment on a Puki talk show on who are the ministers or 'advisors' of Imran. Just 3 to 4 are from the original PTI movement. The main people running the show are all ex PML/PPP/dual citizens who have been placed by the pak army. :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Sep 2019 16:55

External pressures weigh on Pakistan's foreign reserves: Moody's

KARACHI: Pakistan’s meagre foreign exchange reserves continue to face the brunt of external pressures, while liquidity risks also remain high, said Moody’s in a periodic review of the country.

“The country has high susceptibility to event risk driven by heightened external vulnerability as external pressures continue to weigh on the country’s foreign-exchange reserve adequacy, while political and government liquidity risks remain elevated in Pakistan,” the document stated.

Moody’s Investors Service reviews its ratings periodically in accordance with regulations – either annually or, in the case of governments and certain EU-based supranational organisations, semi-annually. These are conducted through portfolio reviews in which Moody’s reassesses the appropriateness of each outstanding rating in the context of the relevant principal methodology (ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers.

This development comes as no surprise as Pakistan’s economy is continually taking a beating, which is evident in the deteriorating key macroeconomic indicators and our weak fiscal position.

In just the first year of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government, the budget deficit soared to a record Rs3.45 trillion or 8.9% of size of nation’s economy, for the first time in 19 years, Pakistan’s debt and liabilities exceeded the size of its economy and peaked to a record Rs40.2 trillion, and for the first time in 10 years, the growth in large-scale manufacturing industries contracted over 3.6%.

The constant depreciation in currency has badly impacted businesses and dented investor confidence. The rupee lost 32% to 160.05 to the US dollar in the past fiscal year ended June 30, 2019 and foreign direct investment (FDI) fared no better. The FDI plunged to a nine-month low at $73.4 million in July, which was 59% lower than the previous year.

Moody’s did not announce any credit rating for the country. The agency had maintained ‘B3 negative’ credit rating for Pakistan due to heightened external vulnerability risk. However, earlier, it had hinted at a further downgrade if the country’s external position continued to weaken and erosion of foreign exchange reserves.

In its review, the ratings agency stated that the credit profile of Pakistan (issuer rating B3) reflects the country’s moderate economic strength, which is underpinned by the relatively robust GDP growth potential and large scale of the economy, limited by very low per capita incomes and global competitiveness.

The review marked the country’s institutional strength as very low, taking into account very weak scores in the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) provides a ranking of 215 countries and territories based on six dimensions of governance; voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. According to data from 2017, Pakistan has shown improvement on all six fronts; however, in terms of regional competitiveness it lags far behind its South Asian peers.

On the other hand, the document stated that greater central bank autonomy has increased monetary policy effectiveness.

It stated that the country’s profile reflects, “The government’s ‘Very Low (-)’ fiscal strength owing to its very narrow revenue base, which hinders debt affordability, reduces fiscal flexibility and increases the debt burden given ongoing infrastructure spending needs and rising interest expense.”

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Sep 2019 17:30

IMF deal could be renegotiated - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The government on Wednesday did not rule out the possibility of renegotiating the $6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal amid an admission by the tax authorities, for the first time, that they may collect between Rs4.8 trillion to Rs5.2 trillion in taxes in light of existing economic realities.
The questions about renegotiating the IMF deal started surfacing after the IMF and the finance ministry’s projections about Pakistan’s last fiscal year framework went off the mark by up to 94%. The IMF agreement became effective just two months ago.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Sep 2019 18:21

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,644.42 - Pt. Change : -80.32 - % Change : -0.22

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,39,17,285.69 - $ 1 / I N R : 72.0225

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,932.35 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,214.77 - Change : -29.96- % Change -0.1% - High : 30,743.62 - Low : 30,145.35

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,138,602,696,725- $ 1 / T R : 156.6388

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.19 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.31 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Sep 2019 21:38

Quagmire or adjustment? - Khurram Husain

A SERIES of articles in this newspaper have highlighted the state of affairs in different sectors of industry, mostly manufacturing, and the picture that is emerging is not a pretty one. Here is a snapshot of what people in industry are telling us.

Sales were dropping all last fiscal year, in some cases by almost 50 per cent. All manufacturers reported booming sales in the few years preceding FY2018, then a sudden drop in FY2019 that ended in June. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, since the new budget went into effect, they report further contractions of around 30pc.

How large is 30pc? Consider this: if a manufacturer finds a sales slump by 30pc in a given month, he or she has to slow down production or allow inventory to pile up. If the latter course is taken, and the next month also sees a continuing sales slump of equal magnitude, the size of the inventory will pile up. In three months the manufacturer may well be sitting on inventory levels close to one month worth of production. At this point a decision will have to be taken: should the firm continue producing or shut down and focus on moving its inventory out?

This is what is happening in autos, to take one example. Notice the ads appearing in the papers promising instant delivery of your car upon payment. Even six months ago, you would have had to wait many months to get delivery of your car. Today they’re practically standing outside the showroom dangling the car keys at passers by, saying “it’s yours, take it against payment”..

They also announced curtailment of production, shutting down their assembly lines for 10 to 12 days out of a month. This is because inventories are piling up as customers disappear. It’s the same in cement, though perhaps not as severe yet, as well as in steel, tiles and ceramics. Other manufacturers have more resilient demand for their products, like edible oil as one example. Here they are finding out that the consumer is increasingly buying smaller packets of cheaper brands, so those serving the upper ends of the market are seeing demand shift away from their products towards those on the cheaper side, who are seeing a smaller slowdown but much of the demand coming for smaller packets.

Tractors and trucks are in the same position, seeing something like a 30pc drop in sales in the opening months of this fiscal year after having suffered a near 50pc drop in the last fiscal year. What appeared to be a near catastrophic collapse in demand last year is now intensifying across the board.

Different sectors and firms give different reasons for why they are facing these difficulties. Some point to high interest rates and exchange rate depreciation. Others say purchasing power in the markets they serve has collapsed so rapidly that demand has practically dried up. Yet others say their vendor and distributor networks have been disrupted by the government’s documentation drive. Others point to the near halt in government development spending which was a major source of demand for them, such as cement and steel.

For the economist, it is of course a combination of these. All of the elements that business leaders are pointing to as the source of their ailment are part of a package of policies that economists call macroeconomic adjustment.

But all the business leaders agree on one thing: the brunt of the ‘adjustment’ is being borne by the daily wage earners. Thus far, they tell us, they are not laying people off (though I take this with a pinch of salt; there are surely layoffs happening but the pace has not yet reached its peak), but what they are doing to cut costs is not hiring as many daily wage earners as they used to. A quick stop at a couple of locations where daily wage earners wait for work will reveal sheer desperation. If you’re in the mood for a real education on what is happening, go to one of these locations and ask the daily wagers who will crowd around you what they think of ‘naya Pakistan’. And listen carefully to what they say.

Large-scale industry shutdowns have not yet happened, even though those who have the option to shut down their production line in parts are certainly slowing their output. But three months of sustained 30pc declines will get you to a point where large-scale shutdowns could become imminent. And with those shutdowns come large-scale layoffs. We are already two months into the adjustment, with September being the third, so unless something changes drastically, things are going to become more difficult by October, and even more so going forward.

The picture is one of the toughest I have seen in a decade. The only other time I can recall something like this was in the aftermath of the great crash of 2008. Many businessmen were opting to set fire to their factories and take what they could get from insurance rather than continue ploughing ahead and handing over most of what they earned to their creditors. There was a spiral in the portfolio of non-performing loans held by the banks in those days as one after another enterprise opted for default. And then came the factory fires.

We are not there yet, far from it. And it is worth reminding everyone that the situation was inevitable given the scale of the imbalances inherited by the government. But did it need to be as bad as it is? Given that large jolts will have to be administered to the economy, was it necessary to aggravate the situation with confrontations, runaway ‘accountability’ that has stalled all decision making (even the government’s own, it would appear, going by the unseemly flip flop we’ve just seen on the GIDC ordinance), and the rewarding of incompetence? The country does not deserve this.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Sep 2019 23:44

Im the dim and his economic team has now resorted to changing the basket of goods which are used to measure Inflation. They changed it to include low demand goods to show a lower inflation rate which otherwise had crossed 11.6% :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 06 Sep 2019 00:11

Pakistan did madrassa math to get IMF to agree to a deal. Now that the targets are not reachable, they want to "re negotiate" the deal. Which means forcing IMF to agree to lower targets for tax collection and fiscal deficit reduction.

Will be interesting to see what IMF will do.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2049526/2- ... ted/?amp=1

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Sep 2019 15:22

Rupee likely to depreciate in next 6 months: SBP - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee may encounter events of depreciation against the US dollar over the next six-month period. The country, however, remained confident that the actions taken on money laundering and terror-financing would help it in exiting from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey-list next month.

“Over the next six months, foreign exchange rate risk, balance of payment pressures, widening fiscal deficit and increase in domestic inflation were reported as key risks,” State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its annual Financial Stability Review (FSR) 2018 launched on Thursday.

“The likelihood of occurrence of a high risk event in Pakistan’s financial system over the short-term is slightly higher than the medium-term,” the central bank said in the perception survey.

The local currency has recovered 2.3% to Rs156.38 to the US dollar compared to fiscal year 2019’s closing at Rs160.05 following slight improvement in the current account deficit and foreign currency reserves.

As many as 92 people participated in the third annual survey. These included executives from commercial banks, insurance companies, exchange companies, financial journalists, members of the academia, SECP officials, and think tanks. The SBP launched the survey the next day the global rating agency Moody’s highlighted similar risk factors in Pakistan’s economy on Wednesday.

“Risk of political uncertainty has subsided after general elections (in July 2018),” the perception survey added. The central bank said that law enforcement agencies are investigating the widest range of terrorism financing activity and that the country will be successful in implementing the action plan agreed with the FATF.

“Pakistan is working to implement the action plan by September 2019 to negotiate an exit from the ‘grey-list’,” the report said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Sep 2019 17:12

Failing in meeting IMF targets, widening budget deficit: IMF to send SOS mission to Pakistan on 16th - Mehtab Haider

ISLAMABAD: In the wake of worsening fiscal front of the economy, the IMF has decided to send its SOS (Save Our Soul) mission to Pakistan this month for suggesting ways and means to curtail the yawning budget deficit.

The IMF team will discuss fiscal issues with special focus to restrict target of primary deficit within the desired limits. Pakistan has initially tabled option of renegotiating targets envisaged under the IMF programme in the context of emerging new realities on fiscal front as the FBR’s quarterly target has been requested to revise downward from Rs1.071 trillion to over one trillion rupees for end September 2019.

Also read: FBR faces Rs68 bn shortfall in July, August

A video conference held between Pakistan and the IMF team on Wednesday night in which the Fund staff expressed its serious concerns over sharp rise in the budget deficit in the last fiscal year ended on June 30, 2019 that proved all projections wrong made by IMF and Finance Ministry at the time of negotiating IMF deal of $6 billion under the 39-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

More: Journey of economic revival not easy: Hafeez Shaikh

The IMF team will conduct a staff visit to Pakistan during September 16-20, Teresa DabánSanchez, IMF Resident Chief in Pakistan, confirmed to The News on Thursday night. “An IMF technical team is scheduled to visit Pakistan after Ashura Moharram probably from September 17 for staying here for 10 days,” said the official sources. The IMF’s review was expected to take place in November but the decision of dispatching this technical mission suggests that the IMF is not happy with massive slippages on fiscal front.

The fiscal targets especially primary deficit has misaligned massively as the IMF has placed condition to bring down the primary deficit from 1.8 percent of GDP to 0.6 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year. Now the primary deficit had gone up to 3.6 percent of GDP and no one knows how massive adjustments of Rs1,300 billion could be made to slash the primary deficit to 0.6 percent of GDP.

“Yes, an IMF technical mission is coming to Pakistan within this month”, confirmed top official sources while talking to The News here on Thursday. They said that the upcoming technical mission will be providing assistance to Ministry of Finance and other ministries/departments on tax and non-tax revenue collection, fixing cash bleeding state-owned entities and devising strategy on issues related to central bank front.

The IMF team inquired about the reasons for escalation in the budget deficit as both sides had estimated in April 2019 that the budget deficit might touch 7.2 percent of GDP for the last fiscal year 2018-19 so this projection became the basis of the IMF programme with the primary deficit projected at 1.8 percent of GDP.

“When the basis of IMF programme has shaken what is the guarantee that the envisaged targets for the current fiscal year will be materialised”, the IMF side raised question. Pakistani team explained that the FBR faced shortfall owing to variety of policy issues and slowdown of the economy. On non-tax revenue front, they said that the renewal of licences of mobile operators could not be materialised in the last fiscal but now Rs70 billion has been received. Two RLNG plants could not be sold out and they were hopeful that this transaction would be done in first half of the current fiscal year. The SBP profit nosedived due to devaluation. All these negative developments contributed to hike of the budget deficit to 8.9 percent of GDP for the last fiscal year.

On the current fiscal year targets, the FBR told the IMF team that they would be going for annual tax collection of Rs5.5 trillion provided with a few pre-requisites in shape of deployment of technology and allowing effective enforcement but first of all the quarterly target must be readjusted downward. The FBR could collect Rs425 billion to touch psychological barrier of collecting Rs1 trillion in first three months of the current fiscal year.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Sep 2019 17:15

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,981.77 - Pt. Change : +337.35 - % Change+0.92

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,26,614.64 - $ 1 / I N R : 71.8100

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $) : 1,953.30 Billion

[url=psx.com.pk]P S E[/url]

Current Index : 30,467.20 – Change ; 252.43 - % Change : 0.83% - High : 30,550.93
Low : 30,011.50

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,187,790,498,195 - $ 1 / T R : 156.5622

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.52 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.43 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 06 Sep 2019 18:32

Peregrine wrote:Failing in meeting IMF targets, widening budget deficit: IMF to send SOS mission to Pakistan on 16th - Mehtab Haider

ISLAMABAD: In the wake of worsening fiscal front of the economy, the IMF has decided to send its SOS (Save Our Soul) mission to Pakistan this month for suggesting ways and means to curtail the yawning budget deficit.


Maybe instead of stupid gestures like shutting down the country at 3pm in order to "show solidarity with Kashmir", or stopping work for half an hour to play the national anthem, they should work 6 days a week. But then that would make a lot of sense, which is contrary to the output of the Paki mind especially the fauji selected leader.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby khan » 06 Sep 2019 20:15

Maybe the IMF will do the math & realize they are throwing good money in after bad & let TSP go down the toilet unless TSP cuts military spending by 90% (which is the real problem).

They can dress it up with euphemisms like “right sizing” the military.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Trikaal » 06 Sep 2019 23:12

khan wrote:Maybe the IMF will do the math & realize they are throwing good money in after bad & let TSP go down the toilet unless TSP cuts military spending by 90% (which is the real problem).

They can dress it up with euphemisms like “right sizing” the military.


Wishful thinking! IMF very well knows that every penny going into Pakistan is sunk cost. This money is the jiziya US has agreed to pay in order to exit Afghanistan with some face-saving. IMF will renegotiate and continue this back and forth until US manages to pull out completely from Afg. US knows this, Pakistan knows this, and China damn well knows this.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Sep 2019 23:48

khan wrote:Maybe the IMF will do the math & realize they are throwing good money in after bad & let TSP go down the toilet unless TSP cuts military spending by 90% (which is the real problem).

They can dress it up with euphemisms like “right sizing” the military.
khan Ji :

Sir Ji, I believe, of the last tranche of US$ Six Billion the Terroistanis used US$ 4.8 Billion or so to repay the PREVIOUS LOAN. So in effect they got ONLY US$ 1.2 Billion!

So they now have another US$ Six Billion added on to their DEBT! :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Sep 2019 11:01

Whatever, it is disappointing to see the Pakistani Ruppee perform so well, trading in the 155-157 levels, a 30% Depreciation by year end would be nice.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Sep 2019 17:02

Under fire from all sides - Khaleeq Kiani

As the rate of inflation entered double digits after almost nine years and the government changed its base year to 2015-16 from 2007-08, the criticism of government policies is getting louder from within the ruling party.

Last week, the government conceded the rate of inflation (general) had increased to 11.63 per cent under the old 2007-08 base year. Despite rebasing to 2015-16, inflation remained in the double digits though slightly lower at 10.5pc. The last time inflation was in double digits was in 2011-12 at 11pc. The year before that it was at 13.63pc.

Likewise, the core inflation rose to 8.5pc under the new base compared to 8.2pc under the old base year. The increase in prices has started to pinch people from almost all walks of life and as representatives of the people, parliamentarians feel the heat of public discomfort as family budgets contract and expenses enlarge.

The government ministries, particularly of finance and statistics, attribute the rising inflation to their own policies – currency devaluation, increase in electricity, gas and petroleum prices, rise in international commodity prices and additional taxation imposed by the present government under the International Monetary Fund programme. The monthly inflation index has recorded 142pc increase in gas price alone over the last few months.

They have, however, expressed their inability to explain the government’s strategy to counter the rising rate of inflation. Testifying before a parliamentary panel last week, Finance secretary Naveed Kamran Baloch conceded that he and his team did not have an adequate answer how to control inflation at this stage but promised to come back with a strategy in two weeks.

With a slight reduction in inflation after the base change, strong opinions from the planning commission and hue and cry from businesses, the pressure is now building to start a downward revision in central bank’s policy rate.

Reports of closure of factories, fewer shifts and pay cuts have started to flow and are also being translated into the fall in industrial output, lower foreign direct investment and higher interest rates.

Asad Umar wondered which inflation rate might be considered by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the policy rate. He said the Consumer Price Index was showing a rising trend for the last few months and the government ought to be now taking steps to address them.

Another party member from Sindh, Ramesh Kumar, said he had been alerting the government about the looming increase in wheat prices but it fell on deaf ears. The factories in Sindh are now filled with wheat and large quantities are being exported.

Another member Faizullah, who previously led the finance committee instead of Mr Umar, is even more vocal. He said the Ramazan Bazars and Sasta bazaars established under the current government had become a source of corruption instead of benefiting the common men and the subsidy being given by the government was going into a few pockets. “The people did not get the relief through these bazaars that we and our party had promised”, he said.

PML-N’s Dr Aysha Ghous Pasha said the government’s steps to address the problems of the poor were ineffective. She said the country currently faced cost-push inflation but governor SBP was attacking the demand side.

PPP’s Naveed Qamar agrees that the central bank’s monetary policy was resulting in the closure of factories but not impacting the prices because the increase in interest rates was leading to industrial and economic contraction.

Asad Umar said the economic team should be ready to explain macro policy steps and argues that no issue is bigger than the inflation rate at present. He has also questioned the surge in the fiscal deficit and the expenditure overrun during the fiscal year ending June 30, 2019. The budget was announced on June 10 and the expenditures exceeded the revised estimates by almost Rs800bn in the last 20 days. “Somebody has goofed up the system somewhere. It is a big item. Somebody should be held accountable”, he said.

The government has also come under attack from its party members over the recent Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC) fiasco. Mr Kumar said the amnesty offered to big businesses through the GIDC settlement was unjustified and could not be defended; it should be referred to the National Accountability Bureau. MNA Faizullah agreed that “this should be a test case for the party and the government” to expose the full truth.

A few days earlier, Asad Umar along with two other MNAs of the ruling party from Islamabad threatened to revive their party’s tradition of holding a “dharna” outside the parliament over massive corruption in provision of the electricity connections; their voters are not getting meters despite orders from the superior judiciary and the power regulator.

PTI MNAs from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Noor Alam Khan and Junaid Akbar also publicly complained against power companies for demanding money from consumers to replace faulty meters and transformers.

If that was not enough, Leader of the House in Senate Shibli Faraz of PTI has also expressed concern over the procedure adopted for the inclusion of more than 44 unapproved schemes in the public sector development programme after the budget was passed. He has also shown displeasure that renewable energy was being discouraged by design and many people who came to invest in this sector were going away again. He said there was a strong lobby acting to discourage renewable investors instead of being offered incentives.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Sep 2019 17:56

Excluding Pakistan, India backs new sub-regional economic bloc

NEW DELHI: India is backing the revival of a new regional economic bloc, excluding Pakistan as New Delhi presses ahead to deepen ties and push regional integration under the South Asia sub-regional Economic Cooperation (Sasec), international media reported on Sunday.

Given the political hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours and the frustration with the slow progress over the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc), policymakers have decided to forge ahead with the new bloc of fast growing south Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Myanmar.

"India is also very keen about Sasec including Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and India. There will be a meeting of finance ministers for the first time next spring in New Delhi. Regional integration and cooperation is very important. Bangladesh is doing very well," Takehiko Nakao, president of Asian Development Bank told media.

Nakao said finance ministers from the new sub-regional economic bloc will meet in New Delhi next spring to thrash out the strategy for the way ahead. The foundation of Sasec was laid way back in 2001 when Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal agreed for deeper cooperation to accelerate economic growth in the sub region. Maldives and Sri Lanka joined the group in 2014 and in 2017, Myanmar was included. In 2017, ministers from the Sasec group had met to discuss the way forward but since then progress has been limited but now with India's insistence, the group is expected to chalk out a clear roadmap of sub regional integration.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sarathy » 09 Sep 2019 21:39

Peregrine wrote:Under fire from all sides - Khaleeq Kiani

As the rate of inflation entered double digits after almost nine years and the government changed its base year to 2015-16 from 2007-08, the criticism of government policies is getting louder from within the ruling party.

If that was not enough, Leader of the House in Senate Shibli Faraz of PTI has also expressed concern over the procedure adopted for the inclusion of more than 44 unapproved schemes in the public sector development programme after the budget was passed. He has also shown displeasure that renewable energy was being discouraged by design and many people who came to invest in this sector were going away again. He said there was a strong lobby acting to discourage renewable investors instead of being offered incentives.

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What a horror story for TSP. Should be hell to be living there. Kashmir Obsession however, is going to cost them more.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Sep 2019 02:41

Pakistan enters 2nd round of talks with FATF - Irshad Ansari

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has entered the second round of talks pertaining to the implementation of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) action plan in Bangkok, said sources in the Ministry of Finance,

The Pakistani delegation is led by Minister for Economic Affairs Hammad Azhar and includes officials from the Federal Investigation Agency, State Bank of Pakistan, the Federal Board of Revenue, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, the Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF) and other agencies.

The sources said the meeting will continue till September 13 and its outcome will determine Pakistan’s removal or stay in the FATF’s grey list. The FATF’s Asia Pacific Group (APG) will also ponder over inclusion of Pakistan’s name in its extension list. The APG has also called upon Pakistan to respond on its 125 questions based on which the country’s name may be removed from the extension list.

In addition to review of the responses, officials from Pakistan and the FATF team will also engage in a face-to-face question and answer session.

The APG will represent Pakistan’s stance at the FATF talks. During the talks, Pakistan will have to respond to 10 key questions pertaining to money laundering and terrorism financing.

Pakistan would also brief the FATF team regarding its crackdown against the elements involved in terrorism financing as well as progress relating to investigation, prosecution and conviction of the facilitators of terrorism in the country.

A decision regarding stay or removal of Pakistan from the FATF’s grey list will be subject to outcomes of the meeting and while the FATF is scheduled to take the final decision in November 2019, it will become clearer whether or not body is going to decide in favour of Pakistan.

Sources said Pakistani delegation has apprised the FATF officials that Pakistan has been working on a new National Risk Assessment Programme through support from United Nations Office on Drug and Crimes (UNODC).

Based on the programme, Pakistan is conducting assessment in three areas including risks associated with terror financing and areas or sectors in which such financing is likely to exist.

The sectors or areas with high vulnerability for terror financing are also identified while repercussions of slackness or negligence in addressing such vulnerabilities are also being assessed under the programme.

The FATF officials have been informed about the actions taken against elements involved in terrorism and terrorism financing, sources revealed, adding that the interior minister’s statement regarding crackdown against banned organisations was in light of the action plan as he had also clarified that action will continue against all outfits found to be involved or linked to terrorism in the country.

According to sources, Pakistan is chalking out a policy for monitoring and inspection of all designated non-financial businesses and professions (DNFBPs) including lawyers, chartered accountants, real estate dealers and traders of precious metals and stones.

According to the FATF’s recommendations 22, 23 and 28, the income and activities of all such entities will be examined under the action plan. Monitoring and regulation of a few of such sections have already been started.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 10 Sep 2019 06:24

Energy crisis Beggar like condition behind Pakistan’s offer for talks with India.

Pakistan’s offer of conditional talks and its statement that it will not be the first to launch a war against India may have been prompted by not only the precarious state of its economy but also its current oil reserves which have touched a new low.

Healthy oil reserves are necessary to fight a war, but Pakistan’s energy sector is facing demand-supply imbalance owing to a host of factors, according to people aware of the matter. They said political mismanagement, crisis in the Gulf, weak currency at home and inadequate foreign exchange reserves have contributed to Pakistan’s woes.

Pakistan’s energy sector is grappling with supply and stocks below the planned level, and the country’s oil companies have suffered heavy financial losses because of insufficient foreign exchange available in the country, said one of the persons, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The total stock of petroleum products stood at 26 days at the end of July, amounting to just 35% of the total storage capacity of 74 days. Similarly, crude oil stock in Pakistan’s refineries stood at about 398,000 metric tonnes (MT) at August-end, as against a total capacity of around 807,000 MT, reflecting only 49% utilisation of refinery capacity. The usable stock of crude oil stood at around 256,000 MT, or nine days’ supply, ET has learnt. The situation has worsened because Pakistan’s oil marketing companies were slow in importing crude oil, said a second person.

He said the volatile global oil prices and depreciating domestic currency impacted functioning of the oil marketing companies. The increase in tax on these companies to 0.75% from 0.5% also hurt them, he said.

Pakistan’s ministries of maritime affairs and petroleum have advised the Prime Minister’s Office that 25 days of supply should be kept owing to tensions in the Gulf (sure if wishes were donkeys, pakistanis will happily ride on it :mrgreen: ). However, with the Imran Khan government has not paid any attention to falling oil reserves and maintaining minimum oil supply, the people said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Sep 2019 16:31

Farmers fear further decline in cotton production - Imran Rana
FAISALABAD: Agriculturalists and farmers are afraid that cotton production may decline further this year as the sector is plagued by wrong policies of federal and provincial governments.
Cotton production and area under cultivation is also falling primarily because growers have shifted to sowing sugarcane and wheat which guarantee minimum support price.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Sep 2019 16:36

Why should Pakistan have MSP, they should develop cattle rearing and leather industry, develop mining, Timber export and shutdown textile, agriculture and other unwanted industries. Pakistan should go for 100% meant based diet.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Sep 2019 03:56

A mini budget in sight? - Hasaan Khawar

“Domestic tax collection increased by 28 per cent”. This was how many newspapers reported the tax collection figures for the first two months of the current fiscal year. Reportedly, this came out of a presentation made by the Adviser on Finance to the Prime Minister.

Such cherry-picking of data, whether done by the newspapers or bureaucrats surrounding the Finance Adviser, was not a stroke of genius. It does not take much time to realise that this unreal increase happened only on account of sales tax collection, because of withdrawal of the zero-rating regime. But it in no way reflects that our tax collection situation isn’t worrisome.

The same news stories reported that overall revenues registered an increase of 14% compared to the same period last year. Only a few highlighted that the Rs579 billion collected in July and August fell short of the target by about Rs64 billion. And none of them calculated that even this target was grossly understated.

Let’s try to unpack these confusing numbers.

Considering that we are in the midst of an IMF programme which hinges on enhancing our revenues, the only real benchmark of revenue performance should be how we are faring against the targets agreed with the IMF. Our total revenue collection last year stood at Rs3,832 billion, while the target that we agreed with the IMF for this year is an ambitious Rs5,550 billion. This reflects a 45% year-on-year increase and it means that if we have to achieve this target, we have to collect 45% more each month compared to the same month last year.

But surprisingly, the target of Rs643 billion set for the first two months reflected only a 27% increase. This means that not only did we stop short of the target by Rs64 billion, but that the target was deliberately set lower than where it should have been by another Rs90 billion. It also means that if we keep this pace of 14-15% increase over last year, we will end the year somewhere around Rs4,406 billion, more than Rs1.1 trillion below the target.

This is not counter-intuitive. We could expect about Rs300-350 billion additional revenues because of inflation and modest expected growth and about Rs350-400 billion through restoration of the mobile tax by the court, withdrawal of SRO 1125 and revision of income tax slabs. These back-of-the-envelope calculations provide an estimate of around Rs4,500-4,600 billion for the year.

Also, we should not expect any significant enforcement or documentation dividends. Despite the fact that 783,039 new tax returns were filed last year, these filers merely contributed Rs2.5 billion in terms of revenues. This is partly because the number of tax payers in this country is already very high, whether they file their returns or not.

Ironically, the FBR is not to be blamed here. The problem instead lies in the unrealistic target. Tax collection after all is a function of overall economic performance and it is no secret that sudden devaluation and exponential increase in interest rates have significantly suppressed demand and slowed down economic activity. In this situation, even achieving the target of Rs4.5 trillion would be miraculous.

IMF has already taken notice of this and is reportedly dispatching a technical team to Pakistan later this month. It seems that the only option to make up for the shortfall is through a mini-budget, with measures like increase in sales tax.

And even this will not mark the end of it. We might need yet another mini-budget within the same fiscal year, which along with some downward revision in the agreed target, might help in reaching a middle ground with the IMF.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Sep 2019 21:25

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,270.82- Pt. Change : +125.37 - % Change : +0.34

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,41,86,317.30 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.8085

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,975.26 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,954.83 – Change : 487.63 - Percent Change : 1.58% - High : 31,019.81 - Low : 30,467.20

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,239,355,989,322 - 156.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.82 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.61 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Sep 2019 17:38

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,104.28 - Pt. Change : -166.54 - % Change : -0.45

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,41,29,274.36 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.2325

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,983.54 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,546.61 – Change : 591.78 - % Change : 1.88% - High : 31,846.68 - Low : 30,950.85

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,239,355,989,322 - $ 1 / T R = 156.5514

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.86 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.76 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Sep 2019 17:54

Pakistan’s fate at FATF still hangs in balance - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has made some good progress in addressing deficiencies in combating the financing of terrorism framework but its fate still hangs in balance as more work is still needed on the most critical indicators –the terror financing investigations and prosecution.

The Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) Asia-Pacific Joint Group (AP-Joint Group) held face-to-face meetings with Pakistani officials to review its anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regimes.

The review meetings were aimed at preparing a report for the FATF Plenary that will assess whether Pakistan’s name should be deleted from the grey list, be retained in the grey list for an extended period or put on the blacklist.

The meetings took place in Bangkok from September 9 to 10 and Pakistani delegation was led by Minister for Economic Affairs Hammad Azhar. Azhar is also heading an oversight committee that monitors the progress of all the civilian organisations on the FATF Action Plan.

The Pakistani delegation effectively presented Pakistan’s progress on each of the FATF Action Plan items and provided additional information and clarification to the AP-Joint Group, said a handout issued by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday.

The minister conveyed government’s strong commitment to implement the international AML/CFT standards and reaffirmed Pakistan’s unequivocal commitment to work with the international community in the fight against money laundering, terrorism financing, and other financial crimes.

The sources who attended the review meetings in Bangkok told The Express Tribune that the international community was appreciative of efforts that Pakistan made during the past 15 months.

“There was no doubt that Pakistan made progress but there were also areas where we might need to do more and all will now depend on the relative judgment of the Joint Group,” said a senior Pakistani functionary who attended the Bangkok gathering and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The sources said that law enforcement agencies and slow judicial progress remained weak areas throughout the implementation period. In February last year, the FATF had decided to place Pakistan on its grey list with effect from June 2018.

The FATF had given Pakistan 15-month deadline to implement its 27-point action plan.

According to the original schedule, out of these 27 actions, Pakistan was required to deliver on the remaining 5 points by September 2019. However, on the majority of 22 points that had to be implemented from June 2018 to May 2019 the work was still in progress.

The 27-point action plan was based only on four out of 11 immediate outcomes that revolved around supervision of AML and CFT framework, progress on terror financing investigations and prosecutions, cross border currency monitoring and implementation of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions number 1267 and 1373.

The end September actions were about showing improved compliance by financial institutions with their AML and CFT obligations including timely filing of Suspicious Transactions Reports. The country was also required to demonstrate that it takes stern actions to curb cross-border currency smuggling.

The most critical element was to demonstrate that law enforcement agencies were able to identify and investigate the widest range of terrorism financing activity and stop funding to terrorist groups like Da’ish, Al-Qaida, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Haqqani Network and persons affiliated with Taliban.

Pakistan was also required to prosecute persons attached with these outfits, directly or indirectly. The sources said although Pakistan made some progress on threat identification and categorisation of these terror outfits a lot of work was needed to ensure prosecutions in terror financing cases.

The sources said the country had high hopes that the world would recognize the efforts that Pakistan made during over past one year. But nothing could be said with surety about the outcome of the FATF plenary.

The ideal situation will be that Pakistan’s name is struck off the grey list but there is also a possibility of the FATF extending the period due to lack of progress on some of the most critical actions.

As per FATF’s procedures, the AP-Joint Group will present its report in the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meetings scheduled from October 13-18, 2019 in Paris, France, said Ministry of Finance.

The implementation of a 27-point action plan along with a separate Mutual Evaluation Report will now be tabled before the FATF Plenary. The last month Mutual Evaluation Report of Pakistan by the Asia-Pacific Group again identified deficiencies in anti-money laundering and combating terror financing regimes.

Pakistanis authorities have internally prepared a new action plan that has to be implemented to address the objections raised by the APG in the Mutual Evaluation Report. This may keep Islamabad on the grey list for an extended period.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 15:07

Auto sales plummet 41% in August - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: There was no respite in the plight of the auto sector as sales continued to plunge, recording a 41% year-on-year decline to just 10,496 units in August 2019, from 17,662 units in the same month of previous year.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 15:54

Parliamentary panel for shutting down PSM, USC - Haseeb Hanif
ISLAMABAD: A sub-committee of the National Assembly’s public spending watchdog on Thursday recommended shutting down the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) and Utility Stores Corporation (USC) over the poor performance of the two loss-making entities.
The ministry’s secretary informed the participants of the meeting that the PSM’s dues stood at around over Rs211 billion.
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