Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Sep 2019 16:06

Peregrine wrote:Auto sales plummet 41% in August - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: There was no respite in the plight of the auto sector as sales continued to plunge, recording a 41% year-on-year decline to just 10,496 units in August 2019, from 17,662 units in the same month of previous year.
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I think this has been repeated in 2 wheeler, 4 wheeler sectors also, will help managing thier imports as they move more towards Camel driven carts.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 16:55

Pakistan may face serious financing issues: Moody’s - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: Moody’s credit rating agency has placed Pakistan among countries that may face serious financing issues in the extreme scenario under the ongoing US-China trade tensions as Islamabad’s reliance on foreign currency borrowing and thin reserve coverage of external debt payments have weakened its debt affordability.

While Moody’s assumes generally stable financing conditions with slowing global growth, ongoing US (AAA stable) and China (A1 stable) tensions and global flashpoints of political risk, sovereigns in emerging markets (EM) and frontier markets (FM) face a material risk of a period of heightened financing stress.

“To gauge exposure to broad or idiosyncratic financing pressure beyond our base case, we have developed a stress test assuming a severe but plausible shock,” the agency said. “We quantify the direct effects of such a stress on core credit metrics and the rating ranges they imply to determine the most affected EMs and FMs.”

Although second-round effects and policy responses would determine the full implication of any shock, the results highlighted a range of exposure among lower-rated sovereigns and those further up the rating scale, the agency said.

“Greatest exposure is among B-rated sovereigns in Asia-Pacific (APAC), Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Latin America (LatAm), which see the sharpest deterioration in credit metrics when stressed due to weak debt affordability, reliance on foreign-currency borrowing and thin reserve coverage of external debt payments,” Moody’s Investors Service said in its sector in-depth report on “Sovereigns – Global: B-rated sovereigns in APAC, LatAm and MENA most exposed to financing stress.”

“Jamaica (B3 positive), St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG, B3 stable), Tunisia (B2 negative), Egypt (B2 stable), Ghana (B3 stable), Angola (B3 stable), Pakistan (B3 negative) and Sri Lanka (B2 stable) are particularly exposed to a shock,” it said.

In terms of debt affordability, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Egypt, Angola, and Ghana would see the most significant deterioration in their interest payments-to-revenue ratios compared to the baseline 2019-20 forecasts.

“This is driven by large gross borrowing requirements of between 15% and 30% of GDP annually as a result of relatively short average maturities of around five years and short-term treasury bills, on average, comprising over 30% of outstanding domestic debt,” it said.

Pakistan’s external financing gap has been alleviated by a $6 billion, 39-month IMF agreement, along with other bilateral and multilateral borrowings providing an external buffer, “however, external vulnerability remains high following years of wide current account deficits and a lack of substantial non-debt-creating foreign exchange inflows.”

“While we expect that a more market-determined exchange rate and import compression will bolster foreign exchange reserve adequacy against external debt repayments, still low levels threaten the ability of the government to refinance foreign currency debt at affordable costs,” it said.

Pakistan’s fiscal profile has been weakened further by higher interest rates following the central bank’s cumulative 750-basis-point hike over the last two years in response to external imbalances.

With the frequent rollover of short-term treasury bills, these higher domestic interest rates have rapidly increased the government’s borrowing costs.

The External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI) increases the most among sovereigns with the widest current account deficits and lowest foreign exchange reserve adequacy.

Turning to the direct impact of lower capital flows, among B-rated sovereigns, Pakistan, Belarus, Turkey (B1 negative), Sri Lanka and Papua New Guinea (PNG, B2 stable) see the largest increase in their EVI under Moody’s stress scenario, the report said.

In the stress scenario, Belarus, Ethiopia (B1 stable), Pakistan and SVG experience a two-notch rating range shift by the second year of the shock on account of changes in both fiscal strength and external vulnerability risk, while Turkey, Kenya (B2 stable), the Maldives (B2 negative), PNG and Ghana experience a one-notch rating range shift on account of both factors.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 17:22

Aditya_V wrote:I think this has been repeated in 2 wheeler, 4 wheeler sectors also, will help managing thier imports as they move more towards Camel driven carts.
Aditya_V Ji :

P A M A - PRODUCTION & SALE DATA OF VEHICLES

Production of Two & Three Wheelers :

August 2018 : 139,374 - August 2019 : 125,810

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Last edited by Peregrine on 13 Sep 2019 17:45, edited 1 time in total.

Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Sep 2019 17:35

Hmmm, nice link- the total number of trucks and Buses sold were 281- Nice?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 13 Sep 2019 17:41

Peregrine wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:I think this has been repeated in 2 wheeler, 4 wheeler sectors also, will help managing thier imports as they move more towards Camel driven carts.

Aditya_V Ji :

P A M A - PRODUCTION & SALE DATA OF VEHICLES

Production of Two & Three Wheelers :

August 2018 : 139,374 - August 2019 : 125,810

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Sale of 2 wheelers is down just 10%. There is lot of scope for Porkistan to go Toiletistan yet.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Sep 2019 17:52

That is 2 wheelers and 3 Wheelers put together

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 19:01

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,384.99 - Pt. Change : +280.71 - % Change : +0.76

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,42,42,949.76 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.0275

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2.005.27 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,481.31 – Change : - 65.30 - Percent Change : -0.69% - High : 31,630.07 - Low : 31,279.83

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,312,483,573,538 - $ 1 / T R = 156.40

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.35 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.70 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Sep 2019 19:06

Aditya_V wrote:That is 2 wheelers and 3 Wheelers put together
Aditya_V Ji:

Indeed!

Guidance : The Terroristani Figures are on the Basis of ASSEMBLING. There are no Automobile Manufacturers in Terroristan!

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Sep 2019 01:43

Pakistan likely to miss IMF's tax refund condition - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is set to miss the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) condition to refund Rs75 billion to taxpayers in the first quarter despite an incentive by the global lender that will soften the tough primary budget deficit reduction target if the country performs better in tax refunds.

Under the $6 billion IMF loan deal, Pakistan is required to reduce the primary budget deficit – calculated by excluding interest payments – to Rs276 billion in the current fiscal year 2019-20 from last year’s level of Rs1.350 trillion.

According to the IMF, the first quarter’s primary budget deficit target is Rs102 billion, which can be relaxed to an extent if the government pays more than Rs75 billion in tax arrears.

Against the quarterly target of reducing the tax arrears by Rs75 billion, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has so far cleared Rs22 billion of the arrears, which are only 30% of the targeted amount, according to figures released by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) this week.

Sources said if the government released the remaining Rs53 billion, it would adversely hit the challenging quarterly revenue target of Rs1.071 trillion, also given by the IMF. The FBR has set Rs1.111 trillion target for the July-September quarter.

The key reason behind the low disbursement of tax refunds was a highly ambitious annual revenue collection target of Rs5.5 trillion. Despite setting a relatively low target of Rs644 billion, the FBR could collect only Rs580 billion in July and August, missing the two-month goal by Rs64 billion.

Sources said the FBR’s plan was to release a certain amount of refunds through promissory notes that it issued at a fixed rate of 10%. They said the promissory notes could not be issued at a faster pace due to the banks’ reluctance to accept these notes as collateral.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) was also unwilling to treat these notes as part of the statutory liquidity ratio of banks, said the sources.

The SBP’s view was that these notes could not be treated as a debt due to certain legal obstacles, according to the FBR sources. They said the FBR was trying to clear the exporters’ refunds out of its daily collection while the arrears can only be cleared against the promissory notes due to steep revenue targets.

Both the targets of enhancing revenues and clearing refunds were contradictory in nature for the FBR, which has shown inflated collections on many occasions by blocking refunds.

Sources said this week Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh held meetings with FBR officials aimed at knowing the status of tax refunds and the possibility of collecting Rs5.5 trillion.

The initial assessment was that there was no possibility of collecting more than Rs4.8 trillion in the given economic conditions, said the sources.

FBR’s Member Inland Revenue Policy Dr Hamid Atiq Sarwar told the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance last week that the FBR may collect Rs4.8 trillion to Rs5.2 trillion in taxes.

“Total outstanding refunds stand at over Rs500 billion,” a top FBR official told The Express Tribune a few days ago. The figure has been compiled on the basis of individual reports received from all field formations.

However, sources said the FBR had not shared the Rs500 billion arrears with the IMF. It has shared only the processed refunds, which have also not yet been finalised.

In the upcoming review of the IMF programme, Pakistan and the IMF will again discuss the refund payment target as the government’s understanding is that the current year’s refund payments should only be according to the current year’s flow of refunds.

But the IMF indicative target required the government to return Rs75 billion to the taxpayers in the first quarter and then Rs57.5 billion in each of the remaining three quarters.

The IMF staff-level report has shown that the global lender has linked the refund payments with the primary budget deficit target. The ceiling on the general government primary budget deficit will be adjusted downwards by the full amount of any excess in the cumulative flow of tax refund arrears of the respective indicative programme targets, according to the technical Memorandum of Understanding agreed between Pakistan and the IMF.

If the government releases more than Rs75 billion in refunds before September 30, the primary budget deficit target of Rs102 billion will be relaxed by the same amount. However, it seems the government has missed the opportunity of providing relief to the industrialists by not taking advantage of this incentive.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Sep 2019 16:03

Remittances dive 17% after Eid boost - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis showed a decline of 17.1% in August 2019 because of the post-Eidul Azha impact.
Overseas Pakistanis remitted $1.7 billion in August, down $348.4 million compared to inflows of $2.04 billion in the preceding month, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Sep 2019 18:50

Any news about the FATF meeting in Bangkok to decide on Pakistan's non-compliance of conditionalities and recommendation for possible black listing?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Sep 2019 19:54

Pakis being pakis they will now challenge the fines imoposed by the arbitration awards against them claiming the fines are huge.

The c h u t i y a s will be left with a bigger amount to pay due to interest/penalties accumulation. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gautam_2 » 14 Sep 2019 20:52

Vips wrote:Any news about the FATF meeting in Bangkok to decide on Pakistan's non-compliance of conditionalities and recommendation for possible black listing?


last I heard was this news - APG to file report on Pakistan's steps against terror funding

It said the APG, as per the FATF's procedures, would present its report in the FATF Plenary and Working Group meetings scheduled for October 13-18 in Paris, France.


then there is this - Fearing blacklisting, Pak PM plans to meet FATF leaders in New York over the next two weeks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

So Immy will be shouting from the rooftops about imaginary genocide in kashmir while in New York, while quietly lobbying to get off the list of terror factories. He would have loved to carry around the Afghan peace card through this ordeal as a blakmail/bargaining chip, which has now been Trumped.

His next plan is to send kahmiris from POK across the LC to their deaths (after the UNGA meet) to spark a human rights and jihadi flashpoint, which he disclosed in his jalsa in muzzafarabad a couple of days ago. This cancer of a failed state...

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 14 Sep 2019 21:11

Peregrine wrote:Remittances dive 17% after Eid boost - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis showed a decline of 17.1% in August 2019 because of the post-Eidul Azha impact.
Overseas Pakistanis remitted $1.7 billion in August, down $348.4 million compared to inflows of $2.04 billion in the preceding month, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.
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rats deserting a sinking ship. so much for the ummah concept and the universal brotherhood crap.

Even the local/expat pakis do not consider themselves as a part of this accursed country.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby krisna » 14 Sep 2019 21:37


Pakistan Zero Day: What happens if Pakistan Goes Bankrupt?
about 5 minutes video. easy to understand

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Sep 2019 01:04

Vips wrote:Pakis being pakis they will now challenge the fines imposed by the arbitration awards against them claiming the fines are huge.

The c h u t i y a s will be left with a bigger amount to pay due to interest/penalties accumulation. :rotfl:
Vips Ji :

I agree with you that the "c........s" are aware of the consequences but what else can they do? The haven't got the money to pay. Their net international reserves stood at negative $11 billion

The figure now might be approaching US$ 20 to 25 Billion!

So all they can do is practice the fine art of "Delaying Tactics".

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Sep 2019 01:11

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Sep 2019 21:35

‘Power tariff raised by 70% for Punjab exporters’ - Our Correspondent

LAHORE: Power distribution companies in Punjab have raised electricity tariffs for export-oriented industries up to Rs20 per unit from an earlier rate of Rs10.62 per unit, an industry group said.

The power distribution companies in Punjab, including the Lahore Electric Supply Company (Lesco), have started charging industrial consumers different taxes from July onwards. These include levies such as tax on electricity bills, income tax, sales tax, quarterly tariff adjustment and extra tax.

Parliamentary panel for shutting down PSM, USC

All Pakistan Business Forum President Syed Maaz Mahmood on Saturday said Lesco had raised power tariff for the export industry up to 70%, which resulted in a hike to Rs20 per unit, even though the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) had only allowed an increase to Rs12.33 per unit.

He urged the government to take action against the power distribution companies, which burdened the industry with additional levies and taxes. He pointed out that the manufacturing sector of Punjab was already overburdened with high taxes and could not sustain additional levies.

“No additional tax should be imposed as it will lead to de-industrialisation and fall in GDP growth,” he emphasised.

Mahmood pointed out that Pakistan’s share in the global export market was declining due to high energy cost, which made local products more expensive.

He underlined that the full potential of Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) Plus scheme was yet to be realised despite the fact that the facility had been in place for the past five years.

“It is unfortunate that Pakistan’s exports to the European Union have remained flat for the past four years despite duty relief for several products under the GSP Plus status,” he said. “This is the result of high energy costs.” He added that since 2016, export proceeds from the European Union had remained stagnant as they amounted to €6.3 billion in 2016, €6.69 billion in 2017 and €6.88 billion in 2018.

PTI govt for promoting ‘ease of doing business’: Firdous

Rejecting the hike in electricity rates, which took place under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan agreement, he said the cost of doing business continued to increase manifold leading to a decline in exports and a high trade deficit.

“The export sector is already facing an unbearable cost of manufacturing, which is very high in comparison to regional competitors,” Mahmood lamented.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Sep 2019 22:49

Federal govt's debt jumps to Rs33 trillion by July-end - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The central government debt jumped up to Rs33 trillion by the end of July with a net addition of Rs1.23 trillion in just one month, which was not in line with the estimated monthly budget deficit and indicated that the government was continuously building cash buffers.
The debt bulletin that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released late on Friday night showed that the central government’s debt stood at Rs33.02 trillion at the end of July. There was an addition of Rs1.23 trillion or 3.9% as compared to the June’s level of Rs31.8 trillion.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Sep 2019 15:21

Rate hikes, rupee fall to have serious social impact in Pakistan - Faraz Ahmed

KARACHI: The economy of Pakistan is sick again and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again prescribed the treatment based on the philosophy where “like cures like”, which is otherwise known as homeopathy.

The country’s chronic mismanagement of public finances and the borrowing binge is currently being treated with more borrowing from the IMF and then some more from other multilateral donors such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and others.

The history of borrowing by Pakistan from the IMF is almost as old as the IMF’s history of lending. It all started in 1958 when Pakistan went knocking the IMF door for the first time to secure a $25,000 loan.

Fast forward now in 2019 when we went there again for the 22nd time to plug an ever-increasing hole in the financial system with a deal which is the most challenging one so far. Not that we don’t have plenty of experience to figure out how IMF deals look like down the road in a nutshell, however, we are very keenly observing the events unfolding in Egypt, which recently borrowed from the IMF under similar circumstances.

While Pakistan has kicked the can a little farther for a while by clinching the IMF deal, the massive interest rate hikes and putting the currency on a free float mode under the IMF programme will have serious social implications.

Although there are some assurances from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Q-Block that the economy is moving out of the crisis, the long-term effect of this deal on the social fabric is yet to be seen. This is where we have to take cue from the brewing social crisis in Egypt due to severe cuts in salaries, fuel subsidies and job opportunities.

In a report of the World Bank published in April 2019, it was expressed that around 60% of Egypt’s population is either poor or vulnerable and overall living conditions are sliding rapidly.

The effect of the IMF deal is usually reflected at the macro level and gives some breathing space to the government but the benefit of reforms does not percolate down to the common people unless some serious measures are taken by the government.

The situation is more complicated when the government spends more on paying back old debt than spending on social reform programmes promised during the election campaign.

It is obvious that the IMF deal or any other assistance from other donor agencies is just a stopgap arrangement. In the long term, it is essential that the government reduce its expenditures and simulate economic activities to create jobs.

Pitfall

The other pitfall to avoid is the reliance on portfolio investment in short-term treasury bills or stock market to artificially build the foreign currency reserves using the so-called “hot money”.

The recent policy rate hikes to 13.25% have created a very juicy option for the yield-seekers in a rather dried-up market where the Bank of Japan is celebrating 15 years of zero interest rate and the US Fed and emerging markets are turning dovish.

The rent-seeking characteristic of hot money is not something that any emerging economy like Pakistan can rely on in a volatile politico-economic scenario where on the global scale the US-China trade war is playing havoc and on the other hand the fragile situation on both eastern and western borders of Pakistan can cause hot money to quickly evaporate.

Recently issued financial reports from all the industrial sectors have once again confirmed the country’s reliance on the import of raw material and the effect of currency depreciation has badly damaged bottom lines of almost all the major listed companies operating in almost every sector such as auto, pharmaceutical, refinery, cement, steel or other consumer goods manufacturing. Only the upcoming monetary policies will confirm if we are still looking outside to reap short-term benefits of hot money or stimulate economic growth for a long-term and sustainable advancement.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 17 Sep 2019 09:34

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2057897/1- ... il-plants/
POL prices in Pakistan likely to go up after attacks on Saudi oil plants
By Zaigham NaqviPublished: September 16, 2019

ISLAMABAD: Prices of petroleum products are likely to go up by up to Rs12 in coming days owing to an increase in international market following an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure last week, slashing the Arab kingdom’s oil production by half.
The attack that shut five per cent of global crude output has triggered the biggest surge in oil prices since 1991.
Europe’s benchmark Brent crude surged by 20 per cent and US counterpart WTI by 15 per cent as commodities trading got underway and after President Donald Trump warned that the US was “locked and loaded” to respond to the attacks that Washington blamed on Iran.
Tehran has rejected the claim but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is bogged down in a five-year war, claimed Saturday’s strikes on two plants owned by state energy giant Aramco.
Trump says US ‘locked and loaded’ to respond to Saudi oil attack
Pakistan’s energy supply is also at a risk due to mounted tensions with India over revocation of the autonomous status of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
.....
Gautam

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Sep 2019 14:50

IMF rules out revising programme targets - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday ruled out resetting the targets of Pakistan’s $6 billion loan programme, advising the country to exhibit patience as it might take some time before its economy started creating jobs.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 18 Sep 2019 17:32

Let the gangrene set in really good then set terms for amputating Dimran's balls. :rotfl:
Did Bushra's jinns predict this to her? :lol:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 18 Sep 2019 17:46

Peregrine wrote:Image

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Sirji

[b]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-to-send-its-first-astronaut-to-space-in-2022-chaudhry-fawad-hussain/articleshow/71152265.cms[/b]
Khaane ke liye paisa nahin, per Chandralok/ ya Parlok jaane kha irrada hain man mein :rotfl: :lol:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Sep 2019 21:46

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,563.88 - Pt. Change : +82.79 - % Change : +0.23

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,19,877.32 - $ 1 / I N R : 71.3200

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,965.77 Billion

Current Index : 31,555.47 – Change : -353.45 - % Change : -1.12% - High : 31,908.92
Low : 31,508.75

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs Tr.) : 6,327,906,789,260 - $ 1 / : T R : 156.5108

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.43 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.62 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Sep 2019 00:30

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Sep 2019 17:13

Top auditor finds over Rs15tr irregularities by ministries - Khaleeq Kiani

ISLAMABAD: The Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP) has pointed out irregularities of more than Rs15.67 trillion worth of public money by the federal ministries and divisions during the audit year 2018-19. That is US$ 100 BILLION IN POVERTY STRICKEN TERRORISTSTAN! ALL THAT IN JUST ONE YEAR!

In its report laid before parliament as required under Article 171 of the Constitution, the AGP highlighted a series of violation of rules and regulations, weaknesses of internal control, misappropriation or overpayment of public funds and negligence. The funds audited were of the fiscal year 2017-18 which is described as audit year 2018-19.

The audit objections regarding the accounts of the federal government for the audit year 2018 are far greater (87 per cent) than the Rs5.8tr a year before, showing that financial control over public money has deteriorated instead of having been improved or the AGP office was too consumed in procedural niceties under the decade-old rules and regulations.

This is evident from the fact, for example, that the government raised $2 billion (Rs280bn) international bonds at 8.25pc and 7.25pc interest with the approval of the prime minister instead of the federal cabinet as required under the rules. While the audit objected to the higher interest rate, the entire amount of Rs280bn was described as irregular and unauthorised without raising questions if the funds were actually justified.

As a consequence, majority of such big ticket items are ultimately regularised by the Public Accounts Committee because these seldom involve corruption or embezzlement. This is also evident from the fact that in the huge sum of Rs15.67tr that attracted audit objections, the actual reported cases of fraud, embezzlement, theft and misuse of public resources involved a paltry amount of Rs862 million. But then there were also serious cases of bad fiscal management highlighted by the AGP.

The AGP in its report, also submitted to the president of Pakistan, put on record that its findings were based on scrutiny of public funds of 40 out of 50 federal entities and did not cover amounts below Rs1m spent or received by these entities. It said that an amount of Rs4.9bn was recovered during the year under review at the instance of the auditor and deposited in the federal consolidated fund.

The AGP highlighted a total of 39 cases of weak internal control amounting to Rs14.56tr involving several ministries and divisions and related entities abroad. Again, some of them were also included in 51 cases pertaining to weak financial management involving a total amount of Rs14.735tr. Also, 237 cases of Rs293bn were pointed out involving irregular expenditures or payments in violation of rules.

There were 56 cases of recovery amounting to Rs186bn, while in four cases record relating to Rs1.06bn was not produced on the auditor’s demand.

Interestingly, the AGP also questioned misrepresentation of more than Rs9.96tr worth of supplementary grants by the Ministry of Finance and the Accountant General of Pakistan Revenue (AGPR) which are required to ensure sound financial management of the federal government. The audit described it as a “high risk” area because it violated Articles 80-84 of the constitution because the finance ministry did not print these supplementary grants in budget accounts which accounted for 94.32pc of the total supplementary grants.

It said the total supplementary grants as per manuscript of appropriation accounts for the fiscal year 2017-18 stood at Rs10.561tr, but only Rs599bn of these grants had been printed in schedule of authorised expenditure, leaving an unauthorised expenditure of Rs9.962tr.

The AGP said the finance ministry was required to place all supplementary grants before the National Assembly for approval, but it was not done and such large amounts remained unreported. The finance ministry’s response that supplementary grants received from various ministries and divisions beyond a cut-off date could not be made part of the book presented to parliament was found untenable.

Moreover, the AGP noted that the ministries and divisions had incurred an expenditure of Rs3.643tr in excess of final grants available to them and in fact heads and principal accounting officers of the ministries were not authorised to incur excess expenditure without any supplementary grants or within original budget allocation. This also included about Rs3.48tr of excess payment of domestic debt.

The AGP also expressed concern over non-surrendering of savings worth Rs411bn by various ministries and divisions, resulting in lapse of funds. This was violation of financial rules that require that all anticipated savings should be surrendered to the kitty immediately they are foreseen but not later than May 15 each year. This could have pre-empted utilisation of funds by some other deserving areas.

The AGP also highlighted about Rs55bn less payment to the provinces under their National Finance Commission shares through over-deduction of collection charges and unauthorised overpayment of Rs35bn to Balochistan.

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Sep 2019 18:31

S E N S E X ZOOMS!

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,014.62 - Pt. Change : +1921.15 - % Change : +5.32

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) :1,45,34,601.98- $ 1 / I N R = 71.0125

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,046.77 Billion

IN SYMPATHY P S E EASES!

P S E

Current Index : 32,101.37 – Change : -82.77 - Percent Change : -0.26% - High : 32,332.73 - Low : 32,146.09

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,397.067043967- $ 1 / T R = 156.4756$

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.88 - Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.07 : 1

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby vimal » 20 Sep 2019 21:08

Sethi Sey Sawal | 20 September 2019 | Najam Sethi on Indo-Pak Trade & Relations

It seems like the trade embargo with India is causing a lot of hardships to a lot of Puks.
Listen from around 0:55 second.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Sep 2019 21:45

https://www.thefridaytimes.com/who-is-t ... omic-woes/

Last week, Prime Minister Imran Khan in an interview with Al Jazeerah said that India was pushing Pakistan towards economic bankruptcy.


:rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Sep 2019 02:51

IMF refuses to revise projections despite poor fiscal results - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD.: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept the low economic growth rate outlook forecast and “ambitious” fiscal targets unchanged despite admitting “worse than expected fiscal results” at the end of the first year of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led government.
On the conclusion of the four-day visit of its mission chief to Pakistan, Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, the Washington-based lender officially announced on Friday to keep its projections and targets unchanged.
It also acknowledged the promising start of the $6 billion bailout programme but said that “decisive implementation” was critical for its success.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 21 Sep 2019 03:38

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.thefridaytimes.com/who-is-to-blame-for-pakistans-economic-woes/

Last week, Prime Minister Imran Khan in an interview with Al Jazeerah said that India was pushing Pakistan towards economic bankruptcy.


:rotfl:


Ideally pakistan should be a client state of India like Bhutan or Nepal , its the path of prosperity for them

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 21 Sep 2019 10:54

The Pakistani Ruppee is doing pretty well at 156 to the USD and recovered from 161, Pakis should be pretty optimistic. They are doing pretty well

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Sep 2019 15:46

Inflation to remain high for two more years: SBP - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Friday that inflation would remain at an elevated level for two more years as a special parliamentary panel questioned the official policy prescription that was fuelling inflation instead of curbing it.
Inflation would come down to the central bank targeted rate of 5-7% after two years, said SBP Deputy Governor Jameel Ahmad during a meeting of the sub-committee of National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance.
Due to the central bank’s wrong policies, the economic activities had slowed down and people had closed their financing lines that were opened with banks for working capital, said PTI member Dr Ramesh Kumar.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby JTull » 21 Sep 2019 17:21

Aditya_V wrote:The Pakistani Ruppee is doing pretty well at 156 to the USD and recovered from 161, Pakis should be pretty optimistic. They are doing pretty well


Indeed, they should go on a weapons buying spree!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 21 Sep 2019 17:30

JTull wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:The Pakistani Ruppee is doing pretty well at 156 to the USD and recovered from 161, Pakis should be pretty optimistic. They are doing pretty well


Indeed, they should go on a weapons buying spree!


Yes and indeed what better than an old aircraft carrier to speed things along :rotfl:

https://nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2019/china-to-sell-aircraft-carrier-to-pakistan


Moscow - The Chinese government has decided to sell its first and only aircraft carrier to Pakistan. More specifically, the Liaoning will be sold to Pakistan for a yet-undetermined price in order to upgrade the Pakistani Navy’s capabilities, reported Chinese and Russia media on Saturday.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Sep 2019 18:43

JTull wrote:
Indeed, they should go on a weapons buying spree!
kit wrote:Yes and indeed what better than an old aircraft carrier to speed things along :rotfl:

https://nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2019/china-to-sell-aircraft-carrier-to-pakistan

Moscow - The Chinese government has decided to sell its first and only aircraft carrier to Pakistan. More specifically, the Liaoning will be sold to Pakistan for a yet-undetermined price in order to upgrade the Pakistani Navy’s capabilities, reported Chinese and Russia media on Saturday.
JTull Ji & kit Ji :

Gentlemen, I believe the Aircraft Carriers are usually steam driven but the "Nation" Article states At present, the Chinese Navy operates only one diesel-powered aircraft carrier, the ‘Liaoning.’ Commissioned in 2012

Seemingly this vessel is larger than the Vikramaditya.

Please clarify.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Sep 2019 19:10

Large-scale manufacturing shrinks for eighth month in row Mubarak Zeb Khan
ISLAMABAD: The large-scale manufacturing index (LSMI) shrank by 3.28 per cent in the first month of current fiscal year, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday.
The large-scale manufacturing output has declined for eight months in a row amid dismal performance in the food, beverages, textile, pharmaceutical, chemical, fertilisers, leather and iron and steel sectors raising fears of massive layoffs across the industrial sector.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 21 Sep 2019 19:18

Peregrine wrote:
JTull wrote:
Indeed, they should go on a weapons buying spree!
kit wrote:Yes and indeed what better than an old aircraft carrier to speed things along :rotfl:

https://nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2019/china-to-sell-aircraft-carrier-to-pakistan

Moscow - The Chinese government has decided to sell its first and only aircraft carrier to Pakistan. More specifically, the Liaoning will be sold to Pakistan for a yet-undetermined price in order to upgrade the Pakistani Navy’s capabilities, reported Chinese and Russia media on Saturday.
JTull Ji & kit Ji :

Gentlemen, I believe the Aircraft Carriers are usually steam driven but the "Nation" Article states At present, the Chinese Navy operates only one diesel-powered aircraft carrier, the ‘Liaoning.’ Commissioned in 2012

Seemingly this vessel is larger than the Vikramaditya.

Please clarify.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning

Steam turbines and diesel generators , so you could say steam driven

vikram is
Class and type: Modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier
Displacement: 45,400 tons of loaded displacement[6][7]
Length: 283.5 metres (930 ft) (overall)
Beam: 59.8 metres (196 ft)[8]
Draught: 10.2 metres (33 ft)
Decks: 22[9]

liaoning is a bit larger

Displacement:
43,000 tons, light[2][3]
53,000–55,200 tons, standard[2][3][4]
58,600 tons, max[2][3]

Length:

304.5 m (999 ft) o/a
270 m (890 ft) w/l

Beam:

75 m (246 ft) o/a
35 m (115 ft) w/l

Draft: 8.97 m (29.4 ft)
Installed power: Steam

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Sep 2019 22:54

kit Ji : Your Post 21 Sep 2019 19:18 :

Many thanks your detailed reply.

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