Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 30 Sep 2019 11:12

CD70 indicates a 70CC motorbike, wow , less power than Honda Dio, TVS Excel etc. 2.25 inch front wheels and 2.5 Inch rear wheels, I used to consider the Hero Honda splendor with 2.5 Inch front wheels and 3 inch rear wheels as risky 20 years ago. Having said that a 72 CC engine will be really fuel efficient.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2019 15:57

Economic woes mount as debt, deficit stay high - IKRAM HOTI
ISLAMABAD: Things have turned scary as official data such as that of debt and fiscal deficit is crying doom.
The mounting deficit triggers a debt trail, causing even deeper trouble. Finance ministry data of federal and provincial spending and borrowing in 2018-19 tells this story.
It reveals that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), State Bank of Pakistan and Ministry of Finance act in tandem that will take Pakistan to a place where it will be extremely difficult to steer the country out of the deep mess.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2019 16:26

‘Best speech’, but what next? - Kamran Yousa

The euphoria is not over yet. From his admirers to his staunchest critics, from journalists to celebrities, almost everyone has hailed Prime Minister Imran Khan’s maiden address to the United Nations General Assembly session on Friday. His speech was even a top Twitter trend across the world. What prompted many to shower praise on him was the manner with which he put across his perspective whether on Islamophobia or the so-called War on Terror, or highlighting the human rights situation in IOK. His supporters and voters have concluded that Imran Khan has truly emerged as leader of the Muslim world, who unlike others hit all the right chords. They even drew parallels between his address and certain fiery speeches by former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, at international forums.

There was no doubt that Bhutto was a brilliant orator. One of his speeches in the United Nations on Kashmir, where he tore his statement and stormed out of the room over lack of action by the global body towards the people of Kashmir, is still often cited as an example of a bold and brave leader. But being an emotional nation, we tend to overlook facts, which in many cases are hard to swallow. If oratory was the only benchmark, Pakistan, under Bhutto, would not only have liberated Kashmir but also put the country on the road to development and prosperity.

This illustrates that being an extraordinary public orator may be an added advantage for a leader but it alone does not guarantee automatic success.

The Prime Minister forcefully raised the longstanding Kashmir dispute and rightly warned the global community of a potential nuclear conflict if no steps are taken to mitigate the suffering of nine million Kashmiris held hostage by close to a million Indian army troops since August 5. But the question remains: will his address change anything on ground?

It is true to an extent that because of Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive and unprecedented coverage of international press, the US has urged India to lift restrictions on Kashmir. Alice Wells, the US President’s point person for the South Asian region, did say that Washington raised the Kashmir issue with India at the highest level. But she simultaneously stressed that resumption of talks between the two neighbours hinged on Pakistan’s efforts to crack down on alleged militant groups threatening India. This means that the US has virtually endorsed India’s stance and may not go beyond issuing statements. And the reason is very simple — Washington views New Delhi as its long-term strategic partner while Islamabad is only relevant for the Afghan endgame. The other stark reality is the economic interests the US has with India. The bilateral trade between India and US currently stands at $142 billion and our two-way trade is just merely $6 billion. Clearly, it is one’s economic strength or lack of it that determines one’s weight in global politics.

It is an open secret that Pakistan’s economy is currently in shambles. This government has no doubt inherited an economic mess, but there were expectations of positive turnaround when Imran took charge in August last year. On the contrary, the situation is worsening by the day. A recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says even the economy of war-torn Afghanistan would grow faster than Pakistan in the current fiscal year. The economic meltdown means that Imran’s promise of 10 million jobs, 5 million new homes and other social reforms would remain a distant dream. Therefore, it is not the powerful speeches Prime Minister Imran delivers that will determine his legacy and success on Kashmir but how he translates his word into action, something far more daunting than giving extempore statements.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2019 17:49

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,667.33 - Pt. Change : -155.24 - % Change : -0.40

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,17,491.55 - $ 1 / 71.01

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,072.59 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,078.85 – Change : 8.04 - % Change : 0.03% - High : 32,395.09 - Low : 31,929.62

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,406,553,720,430 - 156.3489

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.98 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.58 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Oct 2019 12:47

IMF's USD 6 billion loan programme will be last for us: State Bank of Pakistan governor

Havent we heard this before.

Guys any idea why the Paki Rupee has been soo strong, it looks like those Foreign loans leading to inflows of about USD 30-4 Billion have caused this. Any chance of seeing another round of 20-30% Depreciation in the Paki Rupee. That will be nice to have.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Oct 2019 16:57

Aditya_V wrote:IMF's USD 6 billion loan programme will be last for us: State Bank of Pakistan governor

Havent we heard this before.

Guys any idea why the Paki Rupee has been soo strong, it looks like those Foreign loans leading to inflows of about USD 30-4 Billion have caused this. Any chance of seeing another round of 20-30% Depreciation in the Paki Rupee. That will be nice to have.
Aditya V Ji :The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor Reza Baqir speakth with Forked Tongue!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 01 Oct 2019 17:38



If this is true, it is probably going to be caused by Pakistan ceasing to exist.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Oct 2019 18:58

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,305.41 - Pt. Change : -361.92 - % Change : -0.94%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,45,32,392.02 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.2825

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,028.70 Billion

[url=https:psc.com.pk]P S E[/url]

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,426,418,933,357 - $ 1 / T R = 156.474

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.07 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.40 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Nikhil T » 02 Oct 2019 01:35

Balochistan Chief Minister says no foreign investor can come to Pakistan in current scenario

Govt looks for local firms to invest in Reko Diq

LAHORE: The Balochistan government is trying to persuade large Pakistani investors to form a consortium to invest their money in the development of Reko Diq copper and gold mining project.

“Our first priority is to convince Pakistani companies to invest in this project because neither the provincial nor the federal government has the finances for developing this resource that will prove a game changer for both Balochistan and the entire country,” provincial chief minister Jam Kamal Khan said during an interaction with senior journalists at the Punjab Governor’s House on Monday.

“The development of the project [for commercial production] requires an initial investment of $3-4 billion, which is in addition to the $6bn awarded by the International Centre for Settle­ment of Investment Disp­utes (ICSID) in July against Pakistan for terminating agreement with the Tethyan Copper Company (TCC).

“We want Pakistani businessmen to put their money in this project because it has the potential to help them grow big and go global,” he asserted. However, he acknowledged that it was near impossible to attract foreign investment for the project at the moment in view of current economic conditions in the country. :rotfl:

The ICSID, one of the five organisations of the World Bank Group, on July 13 slapped a $4.08bn penalty and $1.87bn in interest – against Pakistan in a case filed by the TCC. The TCC had claimed $11.43bn in damages following the rejection by the provincial government of a leasing request from it. The TCC said it had invested more than $220 million by the time the Pakistan government in 2011 unexpectedly refused to grant them the mining lease needed to keep operating.

Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry’s verdict in the Reko Diq case was the first in a series of events that later led to the massive award against Pakistan. The chief minister lamented that “emotional decisions” had brought this on Pakistan and Balochistan.

The ICSID had ruled against Pakistan in 2017, but announced the award of damage to the TCC in July.

“We have moved in the US for the annulment of the damages,” Jam Kamal Khan said. But he did not appear hopeful of any positive outcome. TCC board chair William Hayes had stated following the decision that the company was still “willing to strike a deal with Pakistan, but it would continue protecting its commercial and legal interests until the dispute was over”.

Reko Diq is famous for its vast gold and copper reserves and is believed to have the world’s fifth largest gold deposits in Chagai. The deposits at Reko Diq are large low grade copper porphyry, with total mineral resources of 5.9bn tonnes of ore with an average copper grade of 0.41 per cent and gold grade of 0.22g per tonne.

The economically mineable portion of the deposit has been calculated at 2.2bn tonnes, with an average copper grade of 0.53pc and gold grade of 0.30g per tonne, with an annual production estimated at 200,000 tonnes of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold contained in 600,000 tonnes of concentrate.

According to the extensive technical and financial studies undertaken to secure optimal economies of scale, and lower mining and processing costs, a large scale, state-of-the-art mining and processing unit is required at Reko Diq.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Oct 2019 22:39



Watch from start to 1:30 - Businessmen and shopkeepers are meeting the Army Chief complaining about the economic policies of Imran Khan which is resulting in depressed market and bankruptcies. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 03 Oct 2019 00:20

https://youtu.be/w0xJjUgt93o
Looks like knife are out for Dimran Hallali!! :rotfl:
So shortly garlanding the lamp post! :D
Watch from 3.12 onwards Kartarpur corridor initiative after Sidhu- Bawja meet :eek:
Yaake ke Congis and 'closet Khalistani' hand-in-glove in all this :shock:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Oct 2019 15:12

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Pakistan's army chief holds private meetings to shore up economy –Bloomberg

'Soft coup against Imran': Pak army chief holds meetings to fix economy

HIGHLIGHTS

- Qamar Javed Bajwa has privately met top business leaders to find ways to bolster the
economy, according to people familiar with the matter

- Some of the meetings resulted in prompt decisions including sending instructions to top government officials, the people said


NEW DELHI: Pakistan’s already powerful military is taking an even greater role in running the country as the economy stumbles. Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa has privately met top business leaders to find ways to bolster the economy, according to people familiar with the matter. The three meetings Bloomberg is aware of took place this year at heavily guarded military offices in Karachi, the financial capital, and Rawalpindi, a northern town that houses the army’s headquarters.
At the meetings, arranged through mutual contacts, Bajwa asked business leaders how to fix the economy and what would lead them to make investments, said the people, who asked not to be identified. Some of the meetings resulted in prompt decisions including sending instructions to top government officials, the people said, without giving any specific examples. They said the general was concerned about restoring confidence among the business community.


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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Oct 2019 15:58

x Posted on the Terroristan Thread

1. Ab Khel Jamay Ga

2. Pakistan Owes China More Money Than It Owes the IMF - Faseeh Mangi

Pakistan needs to repay China more than double the amount it owes the International Monetary Fund in the next three years, as loans racked-up to boost foreign exchange reserves and bridge a financing gap become due.

The South Asian nation owes $6.7 billion in commercial loans to China over the three years through June 2022, according to the IMF, which this year approved a new program to bail out Pakistan from a crisis. Islamabad needs to pay the multilateral lender $2.8 billion in the same period.

Pakistan, one of the biggest beneficiaries of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has been borrowing from Beijing to tide over a financial crisis. Still, the money was enough to only partly bridge a financing gap, pushing the South Asian nation to knock at the IMF’s doors.

“The borrowing picked up after the Belt and Road started,” said Hafiz Faizan Ahmed, head of research at Karachi-based Optimus Capital Management Pvt. “A bulk of the Chinese lending happened about two years ago when dollar reserves were dwindling, so the government kept borrowing and borrowing.”

A report last year by the Center for Global Development listed Pakistan among eight nations that face potential debt-sustainability problems because of the belt-road plan.

“In a way it’s gone wrong for Pakistan,” said Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for the Study of Pakistan at SOAS University of London. “Enthusiastically taking Chinese money, they looked at the short-term deals for shoring over the financial crisis, without realizing its medium- and long-term implication, and the Chinese leverage over Pakistan. And it has painfully come home to be realized.”

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 03 Oct 2019 17:29

Rsatchi wrote:https://youtu.be/w0xJjUgt93o

Watch from 3.12 onwards Kartarpur corridor initiative after Sidhu- Bawja meet :eek:
Yaake ke Congis and 'closet Khalistani' hand-in-glove in all this :shock:


Any doubts about it? - Ex-PM Manmohan Singh agrees to be part of first 'jatha' to Kartarpur Sahib, says Punjab CM.

The congress goons are paki facilitators there is no doubt about it but the worst thing is an ex army men Amarinder Singh is facilitating it.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Oct 2019 01:07

Inflation rises 11.4% on hike in food, energy prices - Our Correspondent
ISLAMABAD: The inflation rate rose to 11.4% in September 2019 largely due to a hike in food prices and partially because of energy prices – the causes that could not be addressed by artificially keeping the interest rates at a higher level.
The pace of inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 11.4% in September over a year ago, stated the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday. There was an increase of 0.9% as compared to the preceding month
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sanjaykumar » 04 Oct 2019 03:08

If you read some recent history, Manohan Singh put his life on the line as finance minister when khalistani terror was peaking.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 04 Oct 2019 07:53

If you read the more recent history he was ready to make the border between J&K and Pakistan irrelevant and was ready to sign an"agreement" with Musharraf which would have allowed Pakis visa free travel to kashmir and had also agreed to "joint administration of Kashmir".

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 04 Oct 2019 09:41

Paki "Industry Leaders" met with Bajwa. Dim is now the PM of Khayali Kashmir and Bajwa the PM of Pakistan; a fact we always knew but might be good to remind the US of.

Jaishankar's 3 interviews in the US are on youtube and absolutely must watch for BRFites (Asia Society, CFR and CSIS).

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Oct 2019 19:02

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,673.31 - Pt. Change : -433.56 - % Change : -1.14

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,43,18,262.13 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.0500

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2015.24 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,033.32 – Change : 281.06 - % Change : 0.85% - High : 33,053.79 – Low : 32,699.24

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,553,986,995,753 - $ 1 / T R = 156.60

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.85 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.15 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Oct 2019 02:33

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Oct 2019 16:51

The wrong model - M Ziauddin

Once again Pakistan has reached the crossing, at which, on a number of occasions in the past, Pakistan was forced to abandon an ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. On a few occasions, the Fund in its own “mysterious” interest was forced to save by allowing as many waivers as were required to complete the programme in time.

Normally, such a point is reached at the end of the first year’s first quarter of the Fund programme, when the first phase of reforms — which include across-the-board price increases; withdrawal of subsidies that impact the middle, lower-middle and poorer sections of society; and adjustment of interest rates and exchange rate corrections — has been affected.

The next phase of reforms calls for equitable sharing of reform-related pain by the richer classes when most of the monetary and fiscal concessions allowed to big business for encouraging investment — such as export/import rebates, tax concessions, broadening of tax net phase and concessionary credit, special SROs issued to specific sectors or/and individuals, etc — are withdrawn.

At this point the big business invariably starts using its blackmailing clout threatening strikes, rallies, closure of businesses, right-sizing units, slowing down investment, sometimes even stopping it completely and using media advertisements narrating harrowing stories of how a government lacking economic sense and the capacity to govern, was destroying the economy by adopting anti-business policies.

An elected government with a narrow mandate invariably succumbs to such tactics and abandons the Fund programme.

Rarely, the Fund allows the recipient country the required number of waivers to complete the programme within the time-limit. This is how the last three-year programme ended in September 2016. It is still a mystery why the Fund had allowed the waivers instead of walking away from the programme. Some experts were heard stating that those that actually influence the decisions of the Bretton Woods institutions were mindful of the disastrous global and regional consequences of a nuclear-armed country’s economy buckling under.

Perhaps the same reason is likely to rescue the current programme as well from being abandoned. And perhaps the seemingly decisive role Pakistan could play in bringing to fruition the abandoned Afghan peace process could add another important reason for the same elements to decide to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat and allow us the needed waivers to conclude the programme.

In the follow-up — whether the programme is abandoned after the first phase of reforms or is saved by the required waivers — Pakistan’s economy would continue to remain as dole-dependent as it has been all these 72 years. And our hope to see the current programme as the last one would continue to remain a forlorn hope. And it will remain so, even if the programme is successfully completed without any waivers because the one-size-fits-all prescription of the Fund has never been known to have liberated the economy of a developing country like Pakistan from the clutches of perpetual poverty.

The basic problem is with the economic model itself being used throughout the last several years. Free market economy — riding on the shoulders of deregulation, divestment and denial of safety nests, along with all eggs in the basket of the private sector in countries like Pakistan that are suffering perpetually from significant energy and capital deficits and with poor access to technology — has only caused more poverty, illiteracy and health risks.

In order for such countries to make the most of the limited indigenous energy, capital resources and poor access to technology, they need to adopt an economic model that is based on principles of mixed economy with the commanding heights of the economy in the hands of the state and the private sector working under a strictly-regulated market with even their profit margins fixed by the state along with greater emphasis on human resource development.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Oct 2019 16:11

X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Tread

PM to offer PSM to China

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan has decided to offer handing over Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) to China through government to government deal and exploring options to finance multi-billion dollars railways Mainline (ML-1) during his upcoming visit of Beijing.

More : PM to visit China for discussing CPEC expansion

Pakistan’s top leadership will give assurances to Chinese side that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would not slow down, but its next phase would be pursued with zeal and vigour despite passing through under the IMF programme.

In his upcoming scheduled visit of China from October 07, 2019, the prime minister has decided to take up five issues for enhancing economic cooperation under CPEC. Pakistan will offer China to get PSM, finalise deal on modernisation of ML-1, financing of Bunji hydropower project, agriculture and social sectors-related projects in and outside the ambit of CPEC.

Related : Has CPEC been shelved?

“Yes, the government will seek assistance for construction of Bunji dam,” top official sources told The News here Saturday.

The Chinese side wants to see progress for establishment of CPEC Authority so the government intends to go ahead with promulgation of presidential ordinance anytime around the upcoming visit of Imran Khan to China.

On the other side, the parliamentarians have asked the government to avoid path of promulgation of ordinance as it would undermine the Parliament. Now it is yet to be seen how the government finally decides to move ahead on CPEC Authority as the Chinese side does not want to make things related to CPEC controversial. Another ordinance is also on the cards where Gwadar Port will become enabled to deal transit trade. The FBR has agreed to grant taxation concessions to Gwadar Port and presidential ordinance will be issued anytime.

On issue of cash-bleeding PSM, official sources said that the premier got worried in the wake of continuous and uninterrupted losses on monthly as overall accumulated losses went up to Rs220 billion. The Privatisation Commission has sought application for financial adviser in order to explore options to revive the PSM and then run it on professional lines.

“The government is exploring different options including G2G deal with China as the government cannot absorb losses on consistent basis,” said sources, and added that the premier decided to offer China to handover PSM with full management control to revive this sick unit.

Financing of ML-1 for modernisation of rail line from Peshawar to Karachi will be another agenda item of the premier during his upcoming visit as both the countries so far failed to finalise financing deal of this much-awaited project. “Pakistan is finding it quite hard to finalise loan deal when the country is running under the IMF programme,” said the official sources.

The premier will make last ditch effort to find out solution to this problem and both sides might explore option to construct this multi-billion dollars project on BOT basis, but Pakistan will have to give total management control of rail line to Chinese side.

For construction of Bunji dam, the sources said, Pakistan would seek financial assistance from China to move ahead on this project on fast-track basis. The agriculture-related projects would also come under discussion. Social sector projects, especially scholarship for Pakistani students, would also be materialised.

The sources said that it was not known how the government wanted to move on establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) as it’s a critical area where Pakistan can attract Chinese companies for relocation and could become part of international supply chains for boosting up its exports in months and years ahead.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 06 Oct 2019 22:26

The Chinese wanted the Dams in pakistan as collateral/hypothecated as a condition for financing the other dams. Both Nawaz and Imran gave cold shoulder to that proposal. But the chinese are a patient lot, they will now take advantage of the Imran who has come back to them with his tail between his legs.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Oct 2019 23:14

Vips wrote:The Chinese wanted the Dams in pakistan as collateral/hypothecated as a condition for financing the other dams. Both Nawaz and Imran gave cold shoulder to that proposal. But the chinese are a patient lot, they will now take advantage of the Imran who has come back to them with his tail between his legs.

What use is the Hypothication of Dams to the Chinese?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 06 Oct 2019 23:57



Rauf Klasra talking about a scam benefiting Engro which was paid a rent of $100 million/year for setting up a gas terminal with a capital of $130 million (in fact which could have been set up for $30 million). This scam was unearthed a year ago but still no action by government because it is worried that it will hurt "investments" :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishirishi » 07 Oct 2019 02:01

Some TSP Burnol :D

BANGLADESH is not some Scandinavian heaven. It is poor and overpopulated, undereducated and corrupt, frequented by natural catastrophes, experiences occasional terrorism, and the farcical nature of its democracy was exposed in the December 2018 elections. But the earlier caricature of a country on life support disappeared years ago. Today, some economists say it shall be the next Asian tiger. Its growth rate last year (7.8 per cent) put it at par with India (8.0pc) and well above Pakistan (5.8pc). The debt per capita for Bangladesh ($434) is less than half that for Pakistan ($974), and its foreign exchange reserves ($32 billion) are four times Pakistan’s ($8bn).

Take a look: Why we l


Actually a very nice article.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1462757

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 07 Oct 2019 02:54

FATF to review Pakistan’s action on terror funding.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the international money laundering watchdog, is to closely scrutinize Pakistan’s progress record on curbing money flows to terrorists and terrorist organizations when it meets in Paris next week.

The 13-18 October meet will consider the findings of the mutual evaluation report (MER) on Pakistan brought out by FATF’s regional body, the Asia Pacific Group (APG) on Money Laundering. The report was based on information provided by Pakistan and an assessment by representatives of a group of countries who visited Pakistan last October.

The APG report had found many gaps in Islamabad’s efforts to arrest the flow of finances to terrorist groups and reduce the activities of UN-designated terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba. The report notes that Pakistan, which has been on the FATF’s gray list since last year, has a “high-level commitment to fighting terrorism" but prosecution and investigation had not “been fully integrated into a national strategy in line with Pakistan’s terror-financing risks".

At the FATF meeting in Orlando in June, Pakistan had not been placed on the blacklist largely because of support from three countries, including Turkey. It had then bought itself some time to comply with the recommendations of the watchdog.

This time, too, Pakistan could avoid being placed on the black list because of help from China, Turkey, and Malaysia, two people familiar with FATF matters separately said. According to the charter of the 39-member FATF, the support of at least three member states is essential to avoid the blacklisting.

However, there is a group of countries within FATF that feels that Pakistan needs to “do more and comply with the pledges it made" at the Orlando meeting of FATF, one of the two people cited above said.

Given that Pakistan was found “non-compliant" on five FATF recommendations and “partially compliant" on 25 others out of a list of 40 recommendations according to the APG report, there is a case for Islamabad to be placed on the black list. However as a compromise, Pakistan could be placed on a “dark gray list", which means more intense scrutiny and pressure on the country to abide by its commitments. Being put in the “dark gray list" means Pakistan will find it difficult to source foreign investments at a time when its economy is still in a tight spot despite having received a $6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

A downgrade to FATF’s black list, which currently has Iran and North Korea in it, means international investors would be wary of putting money into Pakistan.

“Pakistan authorities have varying levels of understanding of the country’s ML (money laundering) and TF (terrorist financing) risks. For ML, there is no clear understanding among competent authorities, including LEAs (law enforcement agencies), of Pakistan’s ML risk," said the APG report.

“For TF, competent authorities have a mixed understanding of risk. The national TF probe agency (Federal Investigation Agency, FIA) has a low level of TF risk understanding, while provincial police TF investigation departments (counterterrorism departments, CTDs) have a better understanding of those risks within their provinces. Punjab CTD, in particular, has a reasonable understanding of TF risks within Punjab province," it said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Oct 2019 15:53

X Posted on the Terroristaan Thread

(1)Terroristan can Politicise Sports by Boycotting the 1980 Moscow Summer Olympics (2) Terroristani minister boycott OIC meeting in Abu Dhabi over Indian presence 01-03-2019 and now complains about Indian attempts to politicise FATF proceeding! :rotfl:

Pakistan denounces India's attempts to politicise FATF proceedings - Our Correspondent

ISLAMABAD: The Foreign Office on Monday issued a strong denial over Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent comments about Pakistan’s position with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

“Pakistan rejects the recent comments made by the Indian Defence Minister claiming that “FATF can any time blacklist Pakistan…”. The statement reinforces Pakistan’s concerns, repeatedly highlighted to the FATF membership, about India’s attempts to politicise the FATF proceedings to further its narrow, partisan objectives,” read the FO statement.

“India’s incessant smear against Pakistan and blatant partisanship also call into question its credentials to be co-chair of the Asia-Pacific Joint Group that reviews Pakistan’s progress to implement the FATF Action Plan,” the FO said, adding that these concerns have been previously brought to the attention of FATF members.

It urged the group’s members to take notice of India’s malicious campaign against Pakistan and reject any attempt aimed at politicising the FATF proceedings.

Pakistan’s FATF compliance poor: APG report

“It is important for FATF to ensure that the process remains fair and unbiased,” said the FO.

Pakistan had raised the same demand in March this year when it asked the FATF to remove India as co-chair of the Asia-Pacific Joint Group to ensure that the FATF review process remained objective.

Asad Umar, who has since been removed as finance minister, had asked FATF President Marshall Billingslea to appoint any other member as co-chair of the group in place of India.

The Joint Group is a sub-body of the International Cooperation Review Group (ICRG) of the Asia Pacific Group. Pakistan is a member of the APG and its case is being presented before the FATF by the APG. India’s Financial Intelligence Unit’s (FIU) director general is the co-chair of the Joint Group.

Pakistan wary of India’s presence on FATF panel

“India’s animosity towards Pakistan is well known and the recent violation of Pakistan’s airspace and dropping of bombs inside Pakistani territory is another manifestation of India’s hostile attitude,” Umar wrote in a letter to the FATF president.

In his letter, the then-finance minister referred to a statement regarding efforts for global isolation of Pakistan and India’s call for the blacklisting of Pakistan during the ICRG meeting on February 18, 2019, which demonstrated Indian intentions to hurt Pakistan’s economic interests.

The Indian defence minister’s provocative statement and Pakistan’s rebuttal come just days before the FATF plenary meetings scheduled to be held in Paris from October 13 to 18.

According to the recently released final Mutual Evaluation Report of the Asia Pacific Group (APG), Pakistan faces high risks of money laundering and terror financing and it needs to improve the understanding of these risks that are also animating from various terrorist groups operating in the country.

The report was released 10 days before the FATF plenary meeting, which is going to give its decision on Pakistan’s status on its grey list.

After the APG report, chances are high that Pakistan would be retained on the grey list.

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Last edited by Peregrine on 07 Oct 2019 16:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 07 Oct 2019 16:00

Vips wrote:FATF to review Pakistan’s action on terror funding.

Given that Pakistan was found “non-compliant" on five FATF recommendations and “partially compliant" on 25 others out of a list of 40 recommendations according to the APG report, there is a case for Islamabad to be placed on the black list. However as a compromise, Pakistan could be placed on a “dark gray list", which means more intense scrutiny and pressure on the country to abide by its commitments. Being put in the “dark gray list" means Pakistan will find it difficult to source foreign investments at a time when its economy is still in a tight spot despite having received a $6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.


Aha. Thought so. BTW just how many shades of gray are there.. 50? :roll:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 07 Oct 2019 20:51

True to form scroll has put an article Paki economy is going to grow. Hmmm

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 07 Oct 2019 21:53

Grow it will. Question is whether growth in real (USD) terms will be faster than population growth.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 08 Oct 2019 03:17

Pakistan scores 6/27 on cleaning up terror funding, money laundering.

Ahead of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) plenary in Paris which will decide whether Pakistan should be placed on the ‘black list’ — which will result in severe restrictions on its economy — the AsiaPacific Group (APG) released its report, saying Islamabad’s compliance on terror financing and money laundering was unacceptably low.

Pakistan is banking on its political connections and utility in the US’s attempts to extricate itself from Afghanistan to stay out of the ‘black list’
next week. It could be banking on concerns that blacklisting will destabilise Pakistan and it might result in an adverse fallout in a volatile
and unstable region.

If such calculations prevail, Pakistan could stay on the ‘grey list’ rather than getting into the ‘black list’, even though a dispassionate examination of its record makes it a fit case for stronger measures as the APG report pointed out lack of action against jihadi outfits like Islamic State, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Haqqani Network.

Of the 27 action items that Pakistan had to work on until October 2019, it has cleared only six, according to the latest FATF report. The first process was initiated in January 2018 and Pakistan had about 27 agenda items to show compliance. With an October deadline, Pakistan has cleared only six items with 21 still pending.

The second process, which started in mid-2018 after Pakistan was placed in the grey list, was reviewed by the APG in August. Pakistan needed to score substantial or high compliance on 11 agenda items but had low scores on 10 items and moderate on one, but no compliance of a higher order.

The APG released its much-awaited 228-page ‘Mutual Evaluation Report’ on October 3, 10 days before the FATF plenary begins in Paris. The APG is an inter-governmental organisation consisting of 41 members in the Asia-Pacific region which monitors implementation and enforcement of nternationally accepted standards against money laundering, terror financing and proliferation financing set by the FATF.

Pakistani PM Imran Khan met a large number of member countries during UNGA week to lobby to be kept off the black list. Despite FATF being a largely technical and expert-level group, Khan made a pitch that India was making a politically driven pitch to push Pakistan into the ‘black list’.

Pakistan has so far secured support from Turkey, China and Malaysia. Saudi Arabia should be expected to offer support as well, but it is not yet clear. “Pakistan has not taken sufficient measures to fully implement UNSCR 1267 obligations against all listed individuals and entities — especially those associated with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)/Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF) as well as the groups,” the FATF report said.

“Pakistan should adequately identify, assess and understand its ML (money laundering)/TF (terror financing) risks including transnational risks and risks associated with terrorist groups operating in Pakistan such as Da’esh, AQ, JuD, FiF, LeT, JeM, HQN, and this should be used to implement a comprehensive and coordinated risk-based approach to combating ML and TF,” the report continued.

The report said national regulators like the State Bank of Pakistan and Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan had very limited understating of money laundering and terror financing regimes.

“Competent authorities have varying levels of understanding of the country’s money laundering and terror financing risks, and the private sector has a mixed understanding of risks,” the report said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Oct 2019 21:04

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,531.98 - Pt. Change : -141.33 - % Change : -0.38

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,42,26,083.26 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.1800

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $) : 1,996.61 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,476.62 – Change : -160.20 - % Change : -0.48% - High : 33,872.18 – Low : 33,409.12

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,598,731,971,904 - 156.80

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.14 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 47.38 : 1

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby SBajwa » 08 Oct 2019 23:15

Manish_P wrote:
Vips wrote:FATF to review Pakistan’s action on terror funding.

Given that Pakistan was found “non-compliant" on five FATF recommendations and “partially compliant" on 25 others out of a list of 40 recommendations according to the APG report, there is a case for Islamabad to be placed on the black list. However as a compromise, Pakistan could be placed on a “dark gray list", which means more intense scrutiny and pressure on the country to abide by its commitments. Being put in the “dark gray list" means Pakistan will find it difficult to source foreign investments at a time when its economy is still in a tight spot despite having received a $6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.


Aha. Thought so. BTW just how many shades of gray are there.. 50? :roll:


This is so stupid!! They will keep getting darker and darker. Then probably they have million shades of black too!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 08 Oct 2019 23:20

yensoy wrote:Grow it will. Question is whether growth in real (USD) terms will be faster than population growth.

or even their chinese debts :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: i wish them strong growth for chinese debts... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 09 Oct 2019 00:07

However as a compromise, Pakistan could be placed on a “dark gray list"

Or light BLACK LIST. 50 shades of black with peerni? :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 09 Oct 2019 07:04

saip wrote:
However as a compromise, Pakistan could be placed on a “dark gray list"

Or light BLACK LIST. 50 shades of black with peerni? :rotfl:


You are on to something. "Vantablack" is the darkest form of black known to man https://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/17/business/worlds-darkest-marterial/index.html, so black that no light reflects from it.
"Some people describe it as a hole, because there is literally not enough light coming from the surface to allow the eye to discern the contours that are in that foil,"


As has been claimed, peerni can't be seen in mirrors. Maybe her tent is of one such shade.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 09 Oct 2019 12:51

This is yindoo saazish. India had threatened not to allow Aus cricketers in IPL if this deal was made :((

Australia uninterested in FTA with Pakistan

Australia has refused to offer preferential market access to Pakistan on the grounds that the country has a very limited basket of tradable goods and services.

A source privy to the meeting told Dawn that the Australian delegation flatly refused to start negotiations on a possible FTA between the two countries. He said they were of the opinion that there doesn’t seem to be any potential for a trade agreement.

The source said that Pakistan also demanded concessions in tariffs on the pattern offered to Bangladesh but the same was linked with the amendment in the Australian legislation.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Oct 2019 16:14

Pakistan yet to receive foreign aid worth $21.6b - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: A staggering $21.6 billion worth of foreign economic assistance has remained un-disbursed due to the long completion period of projects and also because of systemic inefficiencies that have put an extra burden on Pakistan in the shape of commitment charges on idle money.

Out of the $21.6 billion, there was $3.9 billion worth of foreign grants that the international donors committed to giving to Pakistan but remained un-disbursed due to multiple reasons, showed official statistics of the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

The remaining $17.7 billion were relatively cheap loans that Pakistan contracted at 1.25% to around a 3% interest rate.

Pakistan can swiftly mobilize at least one-fourth of the un-disbursed money by simplifying its approval processes, removing bureaucratic hurdles and fast-tracking the contract award process, according to sources in the multilateral lending agencies and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Official data of the economic affairs ministry showed that the un-disbursed balance of foreign loans and grants stood at $21.6 billion as of June 2019. There was a reduction of $2 billion or 8.6% as compared to the preceding year when the amount stood at $23.6 billion.

These loans and grants remain un-disbursed at a time when the government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have embarked on a risky path of building foreign currency reserves by taking expensive loans. Contract agreements for the $21.6 billion worth of loans and grants have already been signed with the international lenders and donors.

Finding it an easy solution to deep-rooted problems, the last Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government had also embarked on the dangerous path of taking conventional and unconventional loans to prop up official foreign currency reserves and meet its external requirement.

The SBP has also adopted a risky path of attracting hot foreign money by keeping interest rates higher than the level needed to contain inflation. The Ministry of Finance is also in the process of hiring financial advisers to raise billions of dollars in the current fiscal year by floating Eurobonds and Sukuk.

Some of these loans have not been disbursed due to a long gestation period of different projects. For instance, $3.4 billion was outstanding against the Karachi nuclear power projects, which took a long time for completion.

However, billions of dollars committed by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) remained stuck due to public-sector inefficiencies.

Usually, the planned project completion period is three to four years except for hydel and nuclear power projects but government agencies take about seven to eight years.

Another reason for the slow foreign loan disbursement is the lack of availability of local rupee component due to the larger-than-required size of the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP).

Executing agencies like the Ministry of Power, National Highway Authority, Water Resources Division, Water and Power Development Authority and provincial departments could be blamed for the delay in disbursement of most of these loans.

At the end of June 2019, the outstanding development project portfolio with all creditors and donors stood at $50.8 billion, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Of that, multilateral and bilateral lenders disbursed $29.2 billion over the past many years, leaving a balance of $21.6 billion, showed the documents.

Out of the $21.6 billion, three lenders – the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and China – did not disburse $14.4 billion, which was equal to two-thirds of the un-disbursed balance.

China’s outstanding commitments to Pakistan stood at $5.4 billion – or one-fourth of the total outstanding commitments. In the last fiscal year, China disbursed $2.2 billion for various CPEC and non-CPEC projects.

The ADB released only $532 million against the outstanding commitment of $5 billion. After contracting new loans, the remaining ADB balance stood at $4.8 billion or 22% of the total outstanding un-disbursed amount.

Over one-dozen ADB-funded projects are facing delay. Troubled projects included a power transmission enhancement project, Sindh Cities Improvement project, Jamshoro Power Generation project, Public Sector Enterprises Reforms project, Second Power Distribution Enhancement project, Punjab Intermediate Cities Improvement project and Jalalpur Irrigation project.

The World Bank disbursed $653 million against the total commitment of $3.9 billion. After signing new contracts, the total outstanding un-disbursed amount stood at $4.23 billion – or one-fifth of the un-disbursed amount.

A majority of the World Bank-related funds could not be released due to a long gestation period of different projects. However, there were also some problematic projects like the Tarbela Fourth Extension Project, Dasu hydroelectric power project, the Balochistan Integration Water project, the National Social Protection project, the Sindh Enhancing Response project, Pakistan Financial Inclusion project, etc.

Owing to low exports, high imports and repayments of maturing foreign debt, Pakistan’s reliance on external loans has increased phenomenally over the past 10 years. It has borrowed expensive commercial loans at interest rates of over 5% and floated bonds at interest rates ranging from 6.5% to 8.25%.

However, the borrowing cost of $21.6 billion is in the range of 1.25% to 3% and loans will be returned in 19 to 30 years. This significantly reduces the risk of rollover and refinancing. But disbursements require progress on the development schemes.

Most of the multilateral lenders imposed commitment charges on Pakistan for not utilising the outstanding balance, which puts an extra burden on the exchequer.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mollick.R » 09 Oct 2019 17:40

Rishirishi wrote:Some TSP Burnol :D

BANGLADESH is not some Scandinavian heaven. It is poor and overpopulated, undereducated and corrupt, frequented by natural catastrophes, experiences occasional terrorism, and the farcical nature of its democracy was exposed in the December 2018 elections. But the earlier caricature of a country on life support disappeared years ago. Today, some economists say it shall be the next Asian tiger. Its growth rate last year (7.8 per cent) put it at par with India (8.0pc) and well above Pakistan (5.8pc). The debt per capita for Bangladesh ($434) is less than half that for Pakistan ($974), and its foreign exchange reserves ($32 billion) are four times Pakistan’s ($8bn).

Take a look: Why we l


Actually a very nice article.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1462757


Pervez Hoodbhoy is one of the few saner voice left in paki land.


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