Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Nov 2019 16:42

Nepra approves Rs1.82 hike in power tariff - Zafar Bhutta

ISLAMABAD: The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) on Tuesday approved an increase of Rs1.826 per unit to power consumers on account of monthly fuel adjustment following electricity generation produced through expensive furnace oil.

In a statement, the authority said Rs 0.5462 has been deducted on account of Residual Fuel Oil (RFO). The impact will be Rs24 billion.

The adjustments will be passed on consumers in the billing month of December.

Nepra ‘misguided’ panel on electrocutions in KE jurisdiction: senator

Last week, the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) on behalf of the power distributing companies (Discos) asked Nepra to increase the electricity price by Rs2.97 per unit on account of fuel price adjustment. The reference price was Rs2.84 per unit against the actual price of Rs5.8 per unit.

The electricity consumers were expected to face an additional Rs25 billion following hike in power tariff to be billed in November. Around 13.62 billion units of electricity were produced at a cost of Rs70 billion during September.

Out of the total power generation, 37.09% electricity was generated from hydel sources, 16.39% coal, 6% residual fuel oil (RFO), 5.50% nuclear sources, 1.10% wind sources, 0.45pc% solar, 11.85% gas and 21.06% imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Nov 2019 17:50

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,248.23 – Pt. Change : -53.73 - % Change : -0.13

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,74,953.17- $ 1 / I N R = 70.82

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,190.16 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 35,358.31 – Change : 80.85 - % Change : 0.23% - High : 35,608.77 – Low : -35,243.22

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,847.021455721 - $ 1 / T R = 155.8715

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.93

B S E : P S E : : 49.85 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Nov 2019 01:32

Cotton crop suffers major losses - Parvaiz Ishfaq Rana

KARACHI: Climate change resulting in high temperatures, heavy rains and gusty winds has taken its toll on cotton crop production which reduced by 21 per cent to 6.097 million bales as against 7.706m bales produced in the same period last year.

According to Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) figures till Nov 1, 2019 released on Monday, Punjab suffered cotton production losses by up to 34.5 per cent and Sindh by 18.15pc.

Last year’s cotton production was itself highly dismal at 10.07m bales. Comparing current season’s cotton production with 2018-19 cotton season would not give a fair picture, particularly when the country produced 14.96m bales in 2013-14.

Apart from harsh weather, recent locust attack in some cotton growing areas of Punjab and second spell of rains last week in upper Sindh has further deteriorated the situation, observed cotton analyst Naseem Usman.

A wholesome change in cotton policy and its cultivation methodology is urgently needed if the country has to remain a cotton growing country in the world, he further added.

A grower and cotton trader from Umer Kot, Mr Gomomal told Dawn there is an urgent need to develop new cotton seeds varieties which could meet the climate change challenges.

He further said the current season’s results of cotton cultivation and production should be an eye opener for the government, growers, ginners, textile industry and as a nation we have to collectively find a way out to averted such debacle in future.

A ginner from Punjab, Mian Mahmood Ahmed bemoaned the situation and said that last year a total 909 ginning units were operating and now only 738 units are active.

“The issue is not so grim but unfortunately government departments entrusted with the task of research are not working. The country needs new variety of cotton seed with high yield potential and should also be temperature and pest resistance,” he said.

A member of Karachi Cotton Brokers’ Forum Amir Naseem said that instead of relying on government departments for coming up new cotton seeds, the textile industry should take the task upon itself.

“If rice exporters can engage themselves in backward integration for ensuring quantity and quality production of paddy then why does the textile industry, which has the biggest industrial base of the country, could not do the same,” he questioned.

The situation is so grim that Punjab being the biggest producer of cotton suffered cotton production loss of up to 34.5pc on producing 2.049m bales as against 3.123m bales produced in the corresponding period last year.

Similarly, Sindh being second largest cotton producer also suffered badly with a steep cut of 18.15pc in cotton production. The province up to November 1 produced 2.390m bales as against 2.920m bales produced in the same period last year.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 06 Nov 2019 18:56

Pakistan seeks $9 billion loan from China to fund CPEC projects.

64 Million dollar question is what does the paki whore offer to the chinese that they do not already have? :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2019 18:30

Vips wrote:Pakistan seeks $9 billion loan from China to fund CPEC projects.

64 Million dollar question is what does the paki whore offer to the chinese that they do not already have? :rotfl:
Vips Ji :

They will be singing Peechay Say Aana Bagian Mein TO THIS SONG : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abATZNv3CnY

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 07 Nov 2019 18:44

:rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2019 19:17

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,653.74 - Pt. Change : +183.96 - % Change : +0.45

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,54,30,026.20 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.05

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,171.41 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 35,758.52 – Change : 105.19 - % Change : 0.29% - High : 35,834.24 – Low : 35,458.10

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,933,261,898,154 - $ 1 / T R = 155.8076

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 44.50 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.80 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2019 21:36

World Bank eyes increase in tax ratio to 17pc by FY24 - The Newspaper's Reporter

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank-funded $400 million project is aimed at creating a sustainable increase in the country’s tax revenue, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 17 per cent and widening the tax net to 3.5m active taxpayers by 2023-24.

A World Bank team led by Vice-President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) Ceyla Pazarbasioglu on Wednesday informed Finance Adviser Hafeez Shaikh that the under-consideration project will assist in simplifying the tax regime and strengthening tax and customs administration. It will also support the FBR with technology, digital infrastructure and technical skills.

Country Director Illango Patchamuthu was also present in the meeting.

The government has set improving tax revenue with low compliance costs as a high priority.

The WB team also discussed the Resilient Institutions Strengthening Programme (Rise) which includes an integrated debt management office in the Finance Division. The meeting also focused on areas of harmonisation of tax regime, circular debt strategy and national tariff policy matters.

On the occasion, Dr Shaikh said Pakistan values the financial and technical support provided by the World Bank for institutional reforms and economic development of the country.

The adviser appreciated the support being provided by the World Bank to Pakistan and highlighted the government’s focus on expediting speedy roll-out of the projects in pipeline and actions being taken in this regard.

Ms Pazarbasioglu, who oversees a portfolio of nearly $30 billion of operational and policy work, appreciated the economic reforms programme initiated by the government to stabilise economy and accelerate broad-based growth. The World Bank team also congratulated Dr Shaikh on the improvement on the ranking of the ‘Ease of Doing Business’.

Doha Forum invite

Ambassador of Qatar, Saqr bin Mubarak Al Mansouri also held a meeting with Dr Hafeez Shaikh, and handed over to him an invitation letter from the Deputy Prime Minister of Qatar to attend the ‘Doha Forum’ scheduled to be held next month.

The envoy said the relationship between Pakistan and Qatar had many manifestations and the two countries are working together to forge business partnerships and economic collaborations.

The adviser said that Pakistan values its relationship with Qatar and the government is keen to facilitate the Qatari businessmen and investors who have shown interest in recent months to invest in Pakistan and participate in the economic development of the country.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2019 22:44

Pakistan settles Soviet-era trade dispute with Russia Zafar Bhutta

ISLAMABAD: Islamabad has finally decided to sign a deal with Moscow to settle a 39-year old exporters’ claims case pending since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, paving the way for Russia to invest over $8 billion in Pakistan.

The Pakistani government has authorised its ambassador to Russia to sign the deal. Under the agreement, the Pakistani government will return $93.5 million to Russia within 90 days of the signing and clear pending exporters’ claims to the tune of $23.8 million as per the settlement agreements reached on October 6, 2016 and December 27, 2017.

The efforts to sign the deal with Russia were kicked off by the previous government of the PML-N government and the incumbent regime has decided to execute it.

Moscow has conveyed to Islamabad that it would invest $8 billion in Pakistan’s energy sector and the Pakistan Steel Mills. But according to Russian law, it cannot invest in countries with which it has disputes.

The deal will enable Russia to invest in different sectors in Pakistan, officials told The Express Tribune.

According to the commerce division, in the 1980s the then USSR and its companies used to buy textile and other material from Pakistani companies. To ensure the smooth functioning of the barter trade, former USSR opened two bank accounts in the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP).

The funds in these accounts were deposited by the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) through the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Upon the disintegration of the Soviet Union, some exporters remained unpaid. In addition, there were also claims by Pakistani companies for unshipped goods as they had paid sea freight charges.

As the dispute prolonged, some Pakistani companies acquired stay orders from the Sindh High Court (SHC) restraining the NBP from transferring funds of the Russian banks held in its accounts since 1996, which amount to $104.93 million.

Many attempts were made in the past to resolve the dispute but they remained unsuccessful. The failure to timely resolve the dispute adversely affected relations between the two countries. An early amicable settlement between the two countries will thus pave the way for enhanced bilateral political, economic and diplomatic relations.

During the 3rd Pakistan-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission meeting held in Moscow from November 28 to 30 in 2015, both sides initiated an agreement between the two governments wherein Islamabad agreed to return $93.5 million within 90 days of the signing of the agreement.

Similarly, a committee headed by the then chairman of the Board of Investment held a meeting with the exporters and negotiated a settlement agreement on October 6, 2016.

However, despite the signing of the settlement agreement, the Pakistani companies did not withdraw their cases from the court and the settlement could not be implemented. In order to break the impasse, another meeting was held at the commerce division on October 27, 2017 which was attended by all stakeholders.

A new settlement agreement was reached between the government and three of the five claimants namely Tabani Group, Mercury Group and ABS Group.

Under this agreement, an amount of $19.38 million was to be distributed among the three exporters. However, the other two claimants, Fateh Industries/ Fateh Sports and Fateh Jeans, did not sign the settlement agreement and their suits remained pending in the SHC.

The commerce division then sought the help of the attorney general for Pakistan, who was subsequently able to persuade the two claimants to withdraw their cases by reaching an out-of-court settlement in line with the agreement reached on October 6, 2016.

The high court in its decision on October 4, 2019 allowed an application for the passing of a compromise decree as the parties had reached a settlement agreement outside the court.

This SHC also dismissed the case declaring it “withdrawn unconditionally” with the pending applications. Fateh Jeans was also persuaded but it did not agree to withdraw its cases.

Their cases have already been dismissed by SHC and no appeal has been filed so far by the company.

Therefore, the money in the two NBP accounts of Russia can be disbursed to settle the claims as per the agreements.

The amount maintained in the two accounts is sufficient pay off $93.5 million to Russia as well as clear the pending claims of exporters to the tune of $23.8 million.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Nov 2019 05:11

IMF requests Pakistan's parliament to help IMMIDIATLY increase SBP’s autonomy - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday sought the support of ORDERED Pakistan’s parliament to bring legal amendments for automatically increasing electricity prices and ensuring the autonomy of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) including a longer tenure for the central bank governor.
The IMF Mission Chief to Pakistan, Ernesto Rigo, requested ORDERED a joint sitting of the National Assembly and Senate’s standing committees on Finance and Revenue to support TOTALLY ACCEPT AS ORDERED the amendments to be proposed in the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) Act and the State Bank of Pakistan Act.
The meeting was held in-camera but later on, the members briefed the media.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Nov 2019 18:36

191 Pakistani billionaires given tax relief of Rs61.4b - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Governments of Prime Minister Imran Khan and former premier Shahid Khaqan Abbasi gave Rs61.4 billion in tax relief to just 191 billionaires, who had been caught owning offshore assets but were bailed out through two tax amnesty schemes.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 08 Nov 2019 18:42

Peregrine wrote:191 Pakistani billionaires given tax relief of Rs61.4b - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Governments of Prime Minister Imran Khan and former premier Shahid Khaqan Abbasi gave Rs61.4 billion in tax relief to just 191 billionaires, who had been caught owning offshore assets but were bailed out through two tax amnesty schemes.
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Just in case somebody was wondering how on earth Paxtan has 181 billionaires, they are billionaires in PKR aka zoo dollars :D Basically any yahoo with around $6 million USD is a 'billionaire' in Paxtan and part of the elite 181, of course the crore kamandus are not counted in this list of 181 as they aren't questioned about taxes in the first place.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Nov 2019 21:59

Gas firms seek tariff hike of up to Rs194 per unit - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: State-owned gas transmission and distribution companies have sought an increase of up to Rs194.01 per unit in their tariffs, sparking new challenges for the country’s economic managers as the hike will add to the inflationary pressure and force the central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate at a higher level.

Two public gas utilities – Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) and Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) – have sought the increase in tariffs with effect from July 1, 2019, which will inflate consumer bills. They aim to collect additional revenue of Rs93.69 billion from the end-consumers in the current fiscal year, which started on July 1.

The development came after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its inflation forecast for Pakistan to 11.8% on Friday from the 13% anticipated in May 2019 for the current fiscal year.

The proposed hike in gas prices, if approved, will trigger a new wave of inflation rather than a decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as projected by the government.

Earlier, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and high-ranking government officials anticipated a softening of inflation in the second half (Jan-Jun 2020) of the current fiscal year and a notable drop in the next fiscal year.

The inflation reading is believed to have peaked out at 11.4% in September 2019. It slightly dropped to 11% in October, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The central bank has projected inflation in the range of 11-12% for the current fiscal year 2019-20.

Government officials and independent experts have been highlighting the growing inflation and debt as the two key challenges for the economic managers. The increase in gas prices has remained a leading cause of hike in inflation in preceding years.

“The largest direct impact came from adjustment in natural gas tariffs as this alone contributed 0.7 percentage point to the headline inflation during the year (FY19),” the SBP said in its Annual Report 2018-19 released in late October.

This will be the second gas price revision since the beginning of the current fiscal year.

Earlier, the government raised gas prices by up to 190% with effect from July 1, 2019 under tough conditions of the $6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme.

The tariff was increased in order to overcome the revenue shortfall faced by the public gas utilities and lessen their reliance on the government, which itself faced financial constraints and continued to accumulate domestic and foreign debt to meet budgetary financing and international payment requirements.

In a bid to contain inflationary pressure in the economy, the central bank has hiked the benchmark interest rate by 7.5 percentage points in the past two years to an eight-year high at 13.25%.

Some experts expect a 50-basis-point reduction in the interest rate in the monetary policy announcement to be made in the current month. However, the proposed hike in gas tariffs may prompt the central bank to rethink its strategy.

SNGPL has sought a tariff hike of Rs194.01 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) with effect from July 1, 2019 to recover Rs71.02 billion from the end-consumers and overcome its revenue shortfall in the current fiscal year, according to an advertisement of the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra).

SSGC has sought a price hike of Rs62.52 per mmbtu with effect from July 1, 2019 to collect an additional Rs22.67 billion from the end-consumers in FY20.

Ogra – the regulatory authority – has announced that it will hold public hearing on November 19 in Lahore for the SNGPL request and on November 20 in Karachi for the SSGC petition. It has invited all stakeholders to the hearing for recording their reservations about the tariff hike.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Nov 2019 00:42

Military will continue to shape security, foreign policy: report - Atika Rehman

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LONDON: The Pakistan Army will continue to shape the country’s foreign and security policy, a forecast report released by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said this week, adding that the governing PTI-led coalition is expected to be largely amenable to this arrangement.

“As a result, relations between the civilian government and the military will be positive,” added the report published by the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper.

The report outlined Pakistan’s political and economic outlook for the period of 2020 to 2024 and forecast that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) would serve its full term while opposition parties would remain in a state of disarray owing to legal challenges facing their leaders.

With regard to the PPP and PML-N, the report noted that the opposition would coordinate strategies against the government in an effort that would likely result in frequent obstruction to legislative proceedings in parliament. It added that while these moves against Prime Minister Imran Khan would increase pressure on his government, the EIU did not believe they would challenge the PTI’s grip on power.

“Our view assumes that the military (including its intelligence wing) — which has a lengthy history of intervening in politics — will continue to provide tacit support to the government, partly by using its extra-constitutional influence over the country’s judicial institutions. It will also continue to exert sway over Mr Khan’s administration, especially when it comes to its foreign and security policies. As long as the PTI enjoys the support of the military, its junior partners are unlikely to abandon the ruling coalition to join the opposition,” the report said.

It added that while China would remain Pakistan’s main strategic and economic partner in this period, ties with India would remain strained as cross-border terrorism and the dispute over occupied Kashmir “impede the normalisation of relations”.

Economic outlook

The report noted that while improvements had been made, the security situation would remain a source of instability for the forecast period. “It will undermine growth potential by posing operational and strategic challenges to infrastructure projects and business investment,” the report read.

The EIU predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP would expand by an annual average of 3.1 per cent in fiscal years 2019/20- 2023/24 (July-June).

“Growth will slow owing to a tightening of monetary policy and acceleration in inflation, which will crimp purchasing power. A financial assistance package from the IMF, together with loans from other multilateral and bilateral donors, will help ease the strained balance-of-payments situation over the next few years, although the current account will remain in deficit in 2020 to 2024,” it said.

It expected the government’s efforts to address balance of payments pressures to have a “dampening effect on economic expansion”.

“We believe that the combination of a heavier tax burden across the economy and weaker government spending on public services will dampen economic activity. Moreover, inflationary pressures will weigh on the purchasing power of citizens, depressing consumption growth. These factors, combined with a tight monetary environment, will hamper investment and economic growth,” it said.

It also said that under the IMF programme, the government would significantly cut planned development spending, which mainly involved infrastructure projects. The EIU expected growth in both private and government consumption to slow significantly in 2019 to 2020.

Policy-making

The EIU noted that the PTI was elected on an “ambitious policy agenda” that included expanding social services, housing construction and job creation. But it predicted that Pakistan’s macroeconomic frailty would prevent much of this from being achieved.

“The party’s promises appear especially optimistic in view of the fiscal and balance-of-payments challenges facing the government. Poverty-alleviation schemes such as the Ehsaas programme, launched by Mr Khan in March, will have limited success,” the report said.

Despite strong opposition from entrenched interests within state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the EIU expected the government — at the IMF’s insistence — to make gradual progress on privatisation. The process, it said, would remain fraught with political complications, as many SOEs were overstaffed and successful restructuring would involve severe job losses. Moreover, regulatory inefficiencies, complex labour laws and an unreliable security situation would continue to weigh on the business environment, which would remain poor in 2020-24. Some attempts to reform the country’s inefficient bureaucracy were likely, but progress would be slow, it added.

Ties with China

The report forecast that China would remain Pakistan’s leading economic and strategic partner in 2020 to 20­24.

“Despite fiscal constraints and some hesitation over debt obligations associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — which is of major strategic importance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — China will remain the largest source of foreign investment, as well as a key strategic ally. Although China’s ongoing efforts to make the BRI more sustainable will limit financing for CPEC projects going forward, we do not expect this to affect broader China-Pakistan ties,” the report said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Nov 2019 01:28

MODS : PLEASE ALLOW THIS LINK AS WE DO NOT HAVE A "CRICKET" THREAD - MANY THANKS IN ADVANCE

Chahar takes world-record 6/7 as India win series

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 12 Nov 2019 11:17

Looks like the afsaran and leaderans get super special discounted prices for their services

PM aide on finance chastised over price hike ignorance

On a day when Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Dr Hafeez Shaikh rejected consumers’ concerns regarding ongoing food inflation as ‘lies’, greengrocers cited tomato prices in the metropolis hovering between Rs250-300 per kg on Monday.

Earlier, Mr Shaikh had told a group of reporters that tomatoes were being sold as low as Rs17 per kg in Karachi’s vegetable markets.

“In Karachi, in the sabzi mandi (produce market), tomatoes are being sold for Rs17 per kilogram,” he said. When some of the reporters told him that tomatoes were, in fact, being sold at Rs240 per kg, he rejected their comments, saying people were lying. :rotfl:


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 12 Nov 2019 18:36

Peregrine wrote:The EIU predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP would expand by an annual average of 3.1 per cent in fiscal years 2019/20- 2023/24 (July-June).


In other words the real growth in Pukistan will be 0% as porkistani population is growing at 3% every year. In 5 years there will be a backlog of atleast 5 million more youth who will need gainful employment. In each subsequent year after 2024 also there will be even more suicide jacket wearing abduls joining the line.

Aap ke muh mein ghee shakkar Peregrineji.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Nov 2019 19:42

Peregrine wrote:The EIU predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP would expand by an annual average of 3.1 per cent in fiscal years 2019/20- 2023/24 (July-June).
Vips wrote:In other words the real growth in Pukistan will be 0% as porkistani population is growing at 3% every year. In 5 years there will be a backlog of atleast 5 million more youth who will need gainful employment. In each subsequent year after 2024 also there will be even more suicide jacket wearing abduls joining the line.

Aap ke muh mein ghee shakkar Peregrineji.
Vips Ji:

The beauty is that the Terroristanis are lying in the Gutter FACING DOWNWARDS! :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 12 Nov 2019 21:07

Peregrine wrote:
Peregrine wrote:The EIU predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP would expand by an annual average of 3.1 per cent in fiscal years 2019/20- 2023/24 (July-June).
Vips wrote:In other words the real growth in Pukistan will be 0% as porkistani population is growing at 3% every year.
Aap ke muh mein ghee shakkar Peregrineji.
Vips Ji:


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The EIU's forecase is actually 2.5% growth, rising (if a lot of assumptions are met) to 2.8%. That is equal to population growth, so per capita growth is 0.
Also, the 2.8 % growth is actually 5%+ for the top 1% and almost 0 for the balance 99% (effectively -2.5% per capita).

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Nov 2019 22:54

IMF: scratching the surface - Hasaan Khawar

Congratulations are in order. The first review of the IMF programme has concluded, and Pakistan has met all the quarterly performance criteria by a “comfortable margin”. This is no small feat as meeting these targets was painful. Massive devaluation, market-determined exchange rate, sizeable cuts in spending, a tight monetary policy and drastic revenue measures were unpopular yet necessary for macroeconomic stabilisation.

Stability is now finally in sight. Our foreign exchange reserves are improving, current account deficit has significantly reduced, and the government has even achieved a modest primary budget surplus. Most importantly, the IMF has lowered its inflation forecast, which means the worst might be over.

The media, however, is buzzing with partisan opinions. While staunch supporters of the government are cherry-picking economic data and claiming unprecedented, stellar performance, diehard opponents are vehemently defending Dar’s policy of the artificially maintained exchange rate at the cost of the widening current account deficit. While evading the question of how the country should have financed its current account deficit, they claim that growth, no matter how weak or unbalanced, shouldn’t have been compromised.

But both perspectives — undeserved accolades and unfounded criticism — keep the focus away from real issues that need to be fixed to avoid this repeating IMF-borrowing cycle.

Bringing stability through tough decisions is not something new. In recent years, all governments went to the IMF and took unpopular macroeconomic decisions early on, but for more difficult deep-rooted structural challenges, they mostly relied on cosmetic reforms to keep the IMF at bay. Then later in the electoral terms, once the IMF was off their back, political priorities took over prudent economic management, sowing the seeds for the next crisis.

Going through successive IMF reports is eye-opening. The final review of IMF’s last programme in October 2016 noted that, besides restoring macroeconomic stability, the country had made progress in tackling key structural challenges. Tax policy and administration reforms had allowed for further revenue mobilisation, steps had been taken to strengthen the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy, and energy sector reforms allowed for reduction in power outages and accumulation of power sector arrears. The review, however, cautioned that restructuring public enterprises was still needed to reduce fiscal costs. Then in June 2017, the Article IV Consultation report noted that the macroeconomic gains made during the previous programme had already begun to erode with slowed fiscal consolidation, widening current account deficit and declining foreign exchange reserves. It also highlighted that power sector arrears were starting to accumulate, while financial losses of public sector enterprises continued. The Staff Report on the current IMF programme, in July 2019, emphasised that the country needs to adopt a revenue mobilisation strategy, address structural weaknesses in the energy sector to eliminate quasi-fiscal losses, strengthen SBP’s autonomy and improve the governance of state-owned enterprises. It was as if Pakistan never underwent any reform at all.

The real question is: what is different this time?

The fact of the matter is that as the fiscal and monetary levers will ease, growth will inevitably kick in thanks to the rapidly growing Pakistani population, a significant middle class and a vibrant private sector. But how can we ensure the quality and sustainability of growth this time? The only way is to go beneath the surface of macroeconomic stabilisation and fix what’s causing the fissures and cracks on the surface.

But this is a problem of short-sighted political vision, driven by electoral realities, and multiplied by bureaucratic incompetence and institutional paralysis. Without fixing the real disease, even a successful IMF programme will do nothing to cure Pakistan’s economy and within a couple of years after the conclusion of the programme, Pakistan will again be knocking on the IMF doors.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Nov 2019 23:49

Image

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Nov 2019 19:58

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,286.48 - Pt. Change : +170.42 - % Change : +0.42
40,286.48 +170.42 +0.42

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,52,30,190.63 = $ 1 / I N R = 71.9450

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 2,116.92 Billion

P S E

Market Status : Suspended

Current Index : 37,243.20 – Change : 76.24 - % Change : 0.2% - High : 37,507.02 – Low : 37,130.01

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,148,732,014,843 - $ 1 / T R = 155.6448

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 45.93 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 46.09 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Nov 2019 15:23

X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

Pakistan's external debt, liabilities rise $600m - Salman Siddiqui
KARACHI: Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities increased $600 million to $106.9 billion in first quarter (Jul-Sept) of the current fiscal year as the country borrowed more, mainly from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to improve its international payment capacity.
External debt and liabilities had gone up by $500 million to $106.3 billion in the previous quarter ended June 30, 2019, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Friday.
However, the figure swelled $10.2 billion in the past one year as it had been at $96.1 billion on September 30, 2018, the central bank said.
“The increase in external debt and liabilities (of $600 million) in the last quarter is insignificant. This is a welcome development,” commented Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Samiullah Tariq while talking to The Express Tribune.
Debt, liabilities mount to Rs40.2 trillion IOW About US$ 258.32 Billion of the which is over 90% of the GDP as declared for September FY 2020 GDP
The debt and liabilities, however, surged significantly by Rs10.69 trillion in the past one year as they stood at Rs30.78 trillion on September 30, 2018.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Nov 2019 19:49

IMF allows Pakistan to issue fresh sovereign guarantees of Rs250b - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has allowed Pakistan to issue fresh sovereign guarantees of Rs250 billion in order to reduce the circular debt in the energy sector and the country can give such guarantees in other areas as well.

“IMF agreed … Pakistan can now issue sovereign guarantees of an additional Rs250 billion, which will primarily be utilised to tackle the circular debt,” Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh said in a meeting with businessmen at the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) on Saturday.

Earlier, the global lender had capped sovereign guarantees at Rs1,265 billion or 3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) under the $6-billion loan programme, formally launched in July.

The ceiling compelled the government to shelve the planned second Sukuk (Islamic bond) issue of Rs200 billion designed to reduce the circular debt in July 2019.


“We will soon issue sovereign guarantees for launching the Sukuk,” a meeting participant quoted Shaikh as saying. He, however, did not announce any specific date for the Sukuk launch.

The launch of Islamic bond would allow Shariah-compliant banks to extend financing worth Rs200 billion to the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA), which would, in turn, pay dues of oil marketing companies, gas utilities and independent power producers (IPPs).

The PM adviser said the issue of circular debt would completely be overcome in the next one year, ie, by December 2020.

The pace of increase in circular debt has slowed down to around Rs12 billion a month from around Rs20-30 billion a month earlier. Increase in power tariffs in June, which was one of the IMF’s conditions, has also slowed the increase in circular debt.

It is, however, not known as to whom the government will issue the remaining sovereign guarantees of Rs50 billion.

Earlier, the government had also shelved the formal launch of the stock market support fund of Rs20 billion, which was aimed at reviving the dwindling Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet had approved the launch of the fund in May 2019 after the market nosedived due to economic slowdown.

The PM adviser emphasised that Pakistan had achieved economic stabilisation.

However, some of the big challenges still remain which include fulfilling the promises made to the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) under which Pakistan is to completely eliminate money laundering and terror financing.

Shaikh, however, expressed satisfaction over the progress on the FATF action plan and said they were making all efforts to come out of the FATF grey list.

A meeting participant invited attention of the adviser to the fact that Pakistan had no industrial policy in place. The five-year policy was last introduced in 2013, which expired in 2018, he said, adding that how investors, especially foreign investors, would plan to set up industrial units in the country in the absence of a major policy document.

Responding to a question, the adviser on finance said the prevailing benchmark lending rate of 13.25% was due to high inflation in the country. “Inflation is expected to ease in the second half (January-June) of the current fiscal year,” he said.

However, “the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee better knows as to how and when the interest rate should be brought down,” Shaikh was quoted as saying.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Nov 2019 19:06

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,469.70 - Pt. Change : +185.51 - % Change : +0.46

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,52,99,728.80 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.7500

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,132.37 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 38,564.37 – Change : 152.81 - % Change : 0.4% - High : 38,911.46 – Low : 38,393.61

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,347.182,929,313 - $ 1 / T R = 155.5649

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 47.23 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 45.06 : 1


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Gerard
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gerard » 20 Nov 2019 02:17

Circular debt?

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Nov 2019 19:59

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : BSE SENSEX - Pt. Change : +181.94 - % Change : +0.45

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,55,453.21 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.8600

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,138.86 Billion

[url=psc.com.pk]P S E[/url]

Current Index : 38,037.68 – Change : -526.69 - % Change : -1.38% - High : 38,661.71 – Low : - 37,977.63

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,258,096,209,218 - $ 1 / T R = 155.5279

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 46.67 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 45.83 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Nov 2019 20:08

Gerard wrote:Circular debt?
Gerad Ji :

Active circular debt of Pakistan's power sector hits Rs860b - Our Correspondent- 08-10-2019

ISLAMABAD: The Senate Standing Committee on Power was informed on Tuesday that the energy sector’s active circular debt had surged to Rs860 billion and efforts were being made to curtail it.

The Senate panel held a meeting presided over by Senator Fida Muhammad.

Power Division Secretary Irfan Ali informed the participants of the meeting that earlier the circular debt flow was Rs40 billion which had been curtailed to Rs20 billion per month.

He said the issue of circular debt would be completely overcome by December 2020.Promises! Promises!!

The secretary said the installed capacity stood at over 35,000MW with an addition of 1,800MW from Thar coal and Hub Power Company (Hubco) and a mechanism was being devised to utilise the unused power.

On the supply of surplus electricity from the Sanjwal Solar Plant through wheeling to Pakistan Ordinance Factories (POF) Wah, the secretary said that it was conditionally allowed until the finalisation of rules by the power regulator.

They were allowed on the condition that the POF would fully act on the regulations framed by the regulator

The secretary further said there would be ample electricity supply this winter as 1,100MW from K-3, a unit of the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant, was likely to start generation.

About the Sukkur Electric Power Company (Sepco), he said power theft had been curtailed at 100 feeders and 50 more feeders would be cleared by December.

“Aerial bundle cables are being laid to control power theft in areas where more losses are incurred,” he added.

In Peshawar, ordinary cables are also being replaced with aerial bundle cables to eliminate power theft.

The secretary said Rs330 million had been provided to the Peshawar Electric Supply Company for procuring the new cables.

He added applications had been sought for board members in Hesco, Tribal Areas Electric Supply Company (Tesco), Quetta Electric Supply Company (Qesco) and the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) to induct professional people.

The secretary said it was decided that the net hydel profit would be paid to Azad Jammu and Kashmir under a similar formula for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

He added that the net hydel profit was regularly being paid to K-P and Punjab under an agreement signed in 2016.

The secretary said there were about 29,000 registered agri tube wells which were being switched to solar energy.

He added that Nespak and a German company were jointly working on a feasibility study for this purpose and it would be ready by December.

Besides, he said a Saudi company was setting up a 200MW plant in Quetta and a 50MW each for Mastung and Qila Saifullah districts.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Nov 2019 20:11

Peregrine wrote:Image

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peregrine ji who's the mohtarma ..i see her a lot on paki news channels...

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Nov 2019 20:13

Peregrine wrote:The beauty is that the Terroristanis are lying in the Gutter FACING DOWNWARDS! :rotfl:
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this should go into annals of reusable insults only reserved for pakistanis

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby vishvak » 20 Nov 2019 20:20

The PM adviser emphasised that Pakistan had achieved economic stabilisation.

However, some of the big challenges still remain which include fulfilling the promises made to the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) under which Pakistan is to completely eliminate money laundering and terror financing.

Very close observation where all monies are hemorrhaging to. Not to mention that Chinese made Pakis the biggest recipient of rcep program and now taking all profit s or investment s back.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Nov 2019 20:54

ArjunPandit wrote:peregrine ji who's the mohtarma ..i see her a lot on paki news channels...
ArjunPandit Ji :
She doesn't seem to be in the Cabinet so must be some sort of an "Adviser - Spokesperson"
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Nov 2019 21:18

KP govt wants ADB to conduct Peshawar BRT's forensic audit

PESHAWAR: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government has decided to approach the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to conduct an audit into the Peshawar BRT project, Geo News reported on Wednesday.

The Peshawar BRT project has 0nly managed to achieve six percent of its development targets in the past six months.

The ADB will decide who is responsible for the repeated delays in the project and the low standard work that was carried out.

After the forensic audit is held by the bank, the government will take legal action against the responsible party.

Geo News got access to important documents pertaining to the project which revealed that the ADB would decide whether the contractor, consultant, engineer or the PDA is responsible for the poor work.

According to the additional chief secretary, only one percent work had been conducted in the past six months on the project. The secretary was also quoted as saying that the project would not be completed according to the expected time.

KP Information Minister Shaukat Yousafzai spoke to Geo News about the Peshawar BRT project. He said that a lot of work had been done on the project and it would be completed soon.

He said that a lot of noise had been made unnecessarily over the additional amount that had been added to the cost of the project.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Nov 2019 21:31

Peregrine wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:peregrine ji who's the mohtarma ..i see her a lot on paki news channels...
ArjunPandit Ji :
She doesn't seem to be in the Cabinet so must be some sort of an "Adviser - Spokesperson"
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mohtarma ka koi naam hai...she looks like colony aunty of north delhi who pokes her nose in everyone's life

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 20 Nov 2019 23:19

ArjunPandit wrote:
Peregrine wrote:ArjunPandit Ji :
She doesn't seem to be in the Cabinet so must be some sort of an "Adviser - Spokesperson"
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mohtarma ka koi naam hai...she looks like colony aunty of north delhi who pokes her nose in everyone's life


Firdous Ashiq Awan who is media advisor/spokesperson for the PTI govt and she was standing next to Sunny Deol in that Kartarpur bus video. She is as obnoxious and loud mouthed as she is opportunist, having been part of virtually every single party (and govt) who has been in power in Pakiland.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 21 Nov 2019 03:29

She had during a paki talk show eluded to another female participant (good looking MP from the opposition camp) as coming from Hira-Mandi which is Lahore's Red light area :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Nov 2019 03:47

Vips wrote:She had during a paki talk show eluded to another female participant (good looking MP from the opposition camp) as coming from Hira-Mandi which is Lahore's Red light area :rotfl:
Vips Ji :

Old La Hore saying - It Takes a Hira Mandi dweller to recognize another La Hore Hira Mandi's Dweller! :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Nov 2019 04:10

You guys are wasting ur time and energy. How loooooooong have u been waiting for Pakistan to crash? Back in 2001 their forex reserve was about $0.5 million. I mean not counting the baksheesh stored abroad.

The world runs on money. Pakistan does not.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishirishi » 21 Nov 2019 05:31

UlanBatori wrote:You guys are wasting ur time and energy. How loooooooong have u been waiting for Pakistan to crash? Back in 2001 their forex reserve was about $0.5 million. I mean not counting the baksheesh stored abroad.

The world runs on money. Pakistan does not.


Pakistans economy or no other can actually "crash" or go totally bankrupt. They always manage to get a deal with the creditors. Reason being, that creditors end up getting nothing, if the country is bankrupt.
But as the economy gets tighter, TSP's ability to maintain their 10 billion dollars + army budget will start to pinch. Besides, they cant even think of starting a war.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 21 Nov 2019 07:31

Rishirishi wrote:But as the economy gets tighter, TSP's ability to maintain their 10 billion dollars + army budget will start to pinch. Besides, they cant even think of starting a war.


Their economy was in dumps when they instigated Kargil.

Poor state of economy has not stopped them from instigating Uri, Pathankot, Pulwama, Nargota.


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