Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Vips
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 06 Mar 2020 02:43



AOA - 40% of Porki population is now under the Poverty line. :)
500 Million $ that came in as hot money has gone back in just one week. :mrgreen:
Factories are not able tp pay back loans and are closing down. Massive increase in Non performing loans.
Total national revenue for this year is $30 Billion and expenditure just on interest payments is $31 Billion. :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gerard » 07 Mar 2020 04:53

Sixty years and nothing has changed....

The need for external assistance looms large in Ayub’s approach to foreign policy. He has made it clear that Pakistan relies for a major portion of its required aid, economic as well as military, on the US, that as an ally it should have a special right to such aid, and that the aid it has received to date has not fulfilled its expectations

At the core of Pakistan’s development problem are the country’s limited resources. Much of the land is desert, mountains, and jungle. Some useful minerals have been discovered, but with the exception of natural gas, their exploitation has lagged. The large population (93 million) is generally unskilled with a high percentage of illiteracy. The living standard is as low as that in any major country in Asia. Until recently, economic development has had a low priority and relatively little has been done to mobilize such resources as are available. The military force imposes a substantial burden on the country. Pakistan does, however, have two valuable, if not always dependable, cash crops (cotton and jute) and the potential at least for a substantial increase in agricultural production.


Special National Intelligence Estimate - July 5, 1961.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 08 Mar 2020 11:36

Some ways to look at Pak's GDP/ Stock market cap etc.

There are individual Indian companies worth more than the value of all Pak listed companies (not just Reliance, but even TCS or HDFC ).
Individual Indian states will soon have GDP more than Pakistan's (like Gujarat in 2 years). B'desh GDP already higher than Pak.
Soon, India's GDP may grow each year by the size of Pak.
Delhi NCR consumes more power than the whole of Pak.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishirishi » 08 Mar 2020 17:45

Deans wrote:Some ways to look at Pak's GDP/ Stock market cap etc.

There are individual Indian companies worth more than the value of all Pak listed companies (not just Reliance, but even TCS or HDFC ).
Individual Indian states will soon have GDP more than Pakistan's (like Gujarat in 2 years). B'desh GDP already higher than Pak.
Soon, India's GDP may grow each year by the size of Pak.
Delhi NCR consumes more power than the whole of Pak.


Economic sized does play a role in conventional balance of power. But here TSP is getting away with cheap jehadis and have a nuclear safety umbrella. Next big threat from TSP may be Pakistanis trying to migrate to India, for a better life.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 08 Mar 2020 22:13

Rishirishi wrote:Economic sized does play a role in conventional balance of power. But here TSP is getting away with cheap jehadis and have a nuclear safety umbrella. Next big threat from TSP may be Pakistanis trying to migrate to India, for a better life.


What happened to Bakistan's nuclear safe umbrella during Balakot? USSR was in a big nuclear safe umbrella!

Bakistanis migrating to India is a real danger. And hence the protests against CAA and future NPR/NRC/UCC. The nuclear bomb Bakistan has is its useless population. They are better diverted towards Qatar or Turkey or Iran and towards Cheen than over to India.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 09 Mar 2020 03:45

Paki agriculture production dropping now . GDP growth will be 1.2% but IMHO, soon will be negative.
End game begin this year of 2020
Last edited by Prem on 09 Mar 2020 07:36, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 09 Mar 2020 03:47

delete
Last edited by Prem on 09 Mar 2020 07:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 09 Mar 2020 04:25

Prem wrote:Paki agriculture production dropping now . GDP growth will be 1.2% but IMHO, soon will be negative.
End game begin this year of 2020


Video links are not working

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Suraj » 09 Mar 2020 05:39

Deans wrote:Some ways to look at Pak's GDP/ Stock market cap etc.

There are individual Indian companies worth more than the value of all Pak listed companies (not just Reliance, but even TCS or HDFC ).
Individual Indian states will soon have GDP more than Pakistan's (like Gujarat in 2 years). B'desh GDP already higher than Pak.

This is already true for at least one state - Maharashtra - and probably UP.
Deans wrote:Soon, India's GDP may grow each year by the size of Pak.

Already true for some years.
Deans wrote:Delhi NCR consumes more power than the whole of Pak.

India also ADDS more power installed capacity each year than all of TSP installed capacity.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 09 Mar 2020 06:33

Oil prices dropping to $30 may give some relief to pakis. Damn.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 09 Mar 2020 14:05

Rishirishi wrote:
Deans wrote:Some ways to look at Pak's GDP/ Stock market cap etc.

There are individual Indian companies worth more than the value of all Pak listed companies (not just Reliance, but even TCS or HDFC ).
Individual Indian states will soon have GDP more than Pakistan's (like Gujarat in 2 years). B'desh GDP already higher than Pak.
Soon, India's GDP may grow each year by the size of Pak.
Delhi NCR consumes more power than the whole of Pak.


Economic sized does play a role in conventional balance of power. But here TSP is getting away with cheap jehadis and have a nuclear safety umbrella. Next big threat from TSP may be Pakistanis trying to migrate to India, for a better life.



this nightmare is already upon us.

metros and many smaller towns have hundreds of pakis who have not gone back home after entering India through legal visas.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 09 Mar 2020 20:08

saip wrote:Oil prices dropping to $30 may give some relief to pakis. Damn.


They probably contracted to buy oil at the price prevailing last year, when Saudi and UAE agreed to extend them emergency loans (to be repaid against Oil purchases). Also, their currency is depreciating, so they might pay the same in Pak Rs as before.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 09 Mar 2020 20:16

Prem wrote:Paki agriculture production dropping now . GDP growth will be 1.2% but IMHO, soon will be negative.
End game begin this year of 2020


Population grows at over 2% p.a (official rate), so 1.2% increase in GDP is a negative per capita growth.
That is exacerbated by the top 1% (33% of GDP) growing at double the national rate (say 2.4%), leaving the balance 99% sharing the remaining
0.6% growth (or minus 1.5% per capita p.a)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 09 Mar 2020 22:47

Deans wrote:
saip wrote:Oil prices dropping to $30 may give some relief to pakis. Damn.


They probably contracted to buy oil at the price prevailing last year, when Saudi and UAE agreed to extend them emergency loans (to be repaid against Oil purchases). Also, their currency is depreciating, so they might pay the same in Pak Rs as before.


Low oil prices means tens of thousands of porkis returning back from Gulf, so lower remittances. Also no free oil or oil on deferred payments terms and no aid money from GCC. :)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 09 Mar 2020 22:51

Deans wrote:
Prem wrote:Paki agriculture production dropping now . GDP growth will be 1.2% but IMHO, soon will be negative.
End game begin this year of 2020


Population grows at over 2% p.a (official rate), so 1.2% increase in GDP is a negative per capita growth.
That is exacerbated by the top 1% (33% of GDP) growing at double the national rate (say 2.4%), leaving the balance 99% sharing the remaining
0.6% growth (or minus 1.5% per capita p.a)


Per pakistani economist Ashfaq Hassan, pakistan needs minumum 6% GDP growth to ensure jobs for two million abduls and ayeshas joining the labor force every year. So lower growth every year means the number of unwashed yahoos keep on increasing :wink:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 09 Mar 2020 22:53

Ayeshas do not join the work force. That way Pakis are lucky.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 09 Mar 2020 23:46

saip wrote:Ayeshas do not join the work force. That way Pakis are lucky.



they do have a job.. keep the population growing

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 09 Mar 2020 23:59

saip wrote:Ayeshas do not join the work force. That way Pakis are lucky.


Even through in minor numbers there are Ayeshas in big cities in Porkistan graduating. If they dont get a job it will discourage the parents not to educate them. Good to regress the society further.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 10 Mar 2020 00:22

kit wrote:
saip wrote:Ayeshas do not join the work force. That way Pakis are lucky.

they do have a job.. keep the population growing

They are going to Sugarland to marry and work in their own unique way. And that is hard work. I can not elaborate as children people (bacche log) may be reading the forum.
Modiji has done a good job in reducing the number of working Abduls in the Arab lands. So, the only way for them to earn money is to become canon fodder in every ME conflict, fighting on both sides. Soon we are going to have a "King Rat" type of situation in Paklands.
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 10 Mar 2020 17:26

disha wrote:Bakistanis migrating to India is a real danger. And hence the protests against CAA and future NPR/NRC/UCC. The nuclear bomb Bakistan has is its useless population. They are better diverted towards Qatar or Turkey or Iran and towards Cheen than over to India.

It is already happening. What do you think the empty boats in harami nala bring?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ranjan.rao » 10 Mar 2020 20:06

Vips wrote:
saip wrote:Ayeshas do not join the work force. That way Pakis are lucky.


Even through in minor numbers there are Ayeshas in big cities in Porkistan graduating. If they dont get a job it will discourage the parents not to educate them. Good to regress the society further.

many of them move out on UK/Canada/US liberal unis claiming asian M women from a repressed society fighting mores of society in their SOPs claiming their liberal badge of honors.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 11 Mar 2020 03:38

UK/Canada/Australia are the favored countries not so much the US. For the middle class parents to see the their ayeshas not getting jobs will skew them to not send their daughters to college/universities.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Prem » 11 Mar 2020 04:08


Barath
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Barath » 11 Mar 2020 07:20

Vips wrote: For the middle class parents to see the their ayeshas not getting jobs will skew them to not send their daughters to college/universities.


Slightly tangential note - lower income within Pakistan education

https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakista ... 1.70120398

PNR 24billion for Ehsaas poverty reduction pogram to provide 50000 tuition free 4 year university scholarships . 50% to girls from lower income classes. 2% special needs. IIRC China had earlier promised 20,000 scholarships.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 11 Mar 2020 09:03

K Mehta wrote:
disha wrote:Bakistanis migrating to India is a real danger. And hence the protests against CAA and future NPR/NRC/UCC. The nuclear bomb Bakistan has is its useless population. They are better diverted towards Qatar or Turkey or Iran and towards Cheen than over to India.

It is already happening. What do you think the empty boats in harami nala bring?


there are a lot of pakis at the turkey greece border waiting to push through to the EU, plenty more in italy and spain too.

gateways through turki land are meant for such people so that erdogan can use them as a bargaining chip

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 Mar 2020 09:37

Is their any documentation of numbers of illegal Pakistanis in India? I am sure these people can disappear in Agra and Meerut without trace.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 11 Mar 2020 10:27

Prem wrote:

Pak herrows were not farmers. They were luteras.
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 11 Mar 2020 18:15

Inter-bank market: Pakistani Rupee falls further against dollar.

The rupee depreciated by around 1.12% or Rs1.75 in the inter-bank market on Tuesday and closed at Rs158.25.According to forex.pk, the rupee stood at Rs156.5 on Monday. The latest drop brings the two-day fall in the rupee value to 2.3% as it had been at Rs154.7 on Friday.

“The rupee has been volatile since Monday as foreigners have begun pulling out their investments from govt securities in Pakistan,” (Hot money being pulled out) remarked Forex Association of Pakistan President Malik Bostan while talking to The Express Tribune.

“In addition to this, rumours are doing rounds in the market that the State Bank of Pakistan will slash the key policy rate next week, hence, investors have started pulling out their money.” (Doomed if they keep the interest rate high and doomed also if they dont :lol: )

He pointed out that three-month treasury bills had started maturing and hence Pakistan had begun payments to the holders of those securities.(Reverse Jiziya :wink: )

Echoing his remarks, Topline Securities Director Research Syed Atif Zafar said the fall in the rupee value was due to divestment of hot foreign money injected into T-bills.

There has been a constant outflow for the past six weeks and hence it is being reflected in the rupee value,” he said.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Mar 2020 19:09

I think the Pakistani Rupee has been punching above its weight for 1 year now, a 25% depreciation in the Pakistani rupee Vs USD and 5% appreciation in the Indian Rupee Vs USD is long overdue.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 11 Mar 2020 19:40

Aditya_V wrote:I think the Pakistani Rupee has been punching above its weight for 1 year now, a 25% depreciation in the Pakistani rupee Vs USD and 5% appreciation in the Indian Rupee Vs USD is long overdue.


I would prefer that they spend money to keep their currency artificially high. Further depreciation may make their exports more competitive.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 11 Mar 2020 21:07

World Bank had wanted to set rate of 180 Paki toilet paper for one US$. The Imran Khan govt had accepted that last year while accepting the $6 Billion aid.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby srin » 12 Mar 2020 03:47

^^^ Should be IMF, not World Bank

And while I read the reports of that, is it official ?
Second, in the overall analysis, is it a good thing for them or bad thing ? Exports becoming competitive vs CPEC loans becoming more expensive ....

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kati » 12 Mar 2020 21:17

A benign news with huge implications .....

Mnuchin says IMF and World Bank funds won't repay debts to China
ReutersMarch 12, 2020, 4:25 AM CDT
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin speaks at a news briefing
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin speaks at a news briefing
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury is working with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to gain full transparency of countries' debts from China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and ensure that funds from the institutions are not used to repay China, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday.

"We think this is critically important," Mnuchin told a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee. "We're not ever going to be using money from these international organizations to pay back China."

Some countries saddled by debt from Belt and Road Projects, such as Pakistan, have turned to the IMF for assistance. Pakistan entered a $6 billion loan program with the Fund in July 2019.

At a regular news conference in Beijing on Thursday, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang responded to questioning about Mnuchin's comments by saying international financial institutions were not "political tools" and had assessed the Belt and Road initiative positively.



(Reporting by David Lawder; Additional reporting by Gabriel Crossley in Beijing; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Mar 2020 22:35

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 32,778.14 - Pt. Change : 2919.26 - % Change : -8.18 %

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,25,70,652.63 - $ 1 / I N R = 74.3390

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,690.99 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 35,956.69 - Change : -1716.56 - % Change : -4.77% - High : 37,673.25 - Low : 35,895.77

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,805,089,006,293 - $ 1 / T R : 159.2158

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.86 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 41.39 : 1


Cheers Image

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Mar 2020 22:52

Image

Cheers Image

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby VKumar » 12 Mar 2020 23:20

Low oil prices may seem good for pukis. But as their fourfathers have no change to spare because of low prices, pukis cannot benefit.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ranjan.rao » 13 Mar 2020 00:46

^^bell paki economy has a quite bit of textile/cotton exports..if us economy slows..expect a slowdown on that front too..as people might avoid malls and discretionary spending...and there are knock on effects from china...

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 13 Mar 2020 18:20

The Italian Congress/MMS government in India should be charged with treason for allowing (by giving the no objection/clearance) to the EU for granting the GSP+ status for pakistani textile exports to the EU. Cumulative benefit so far for pakistan has been in billions of $ in the last 6 years.
The GSP+ status grant is for 10 years and i am sure it will not be allowed to be renewed by the Narendra Modi administration.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Mar 2020 19:05

When does this 10 year period end?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 13 Mar 2020 20:50

It was granted in 2013 or 2014 according to different reports. It is for maximum period of 10 years and the recipient country has to follow EU standards and 'other' conditions within this period.

‘EU extends GSP Plus status to Pakistan till 2022.

Since the grant of GSP Plus in 2014, Pakistan’s exports to the European Union have enhanced from 4.538 billion euros in 2013 to 7.492 billion euros in 2019, registering an increase of 65 percent.

On the economic front, Pakistan was a significant beneficiary of the benefits availed by 9 GSP Plus beneficiary countries. Besides Pakistan, other beneficiaries of GSP Plus include Armenia, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Philippines and Sri Lanka. Out of total export of 6.739 billion euro of Pakistan to EU in 2018, our exports worth 5.885 billion euro availed tariff concessions.


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