Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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vera_k
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby vera_k » 02 Feb 2021 03:20

On that matter, regime change is the preferred template. The Bollywood and Amnesty stars can be recruited as the leaders of the new regime. Many of them will have claim to Pakistan citizenship.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Feb 2021 03:39

Del
Last edited by Vips on 02 Feb 2021 03:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 02 Feb 2021 03:42

Suraj wrote:A few datapoints about their railways:
* Annual passenger traffic is 60 million, down from 82 million in 2005. Their population is up perhaps 20% during that time. IR does 8.1 billion (8100 million) passengers a year.
* One line electrified, but service was terminated in 2011 due to theft of overhead wires.
* 5MT of freight traffic in 2017. For comparison, IR did 1250MT in the current fiscal.
* PR has 190 working diesel electric locomotives, which is about 40% of CLW's annual output. IR operates close to 13000 locomotives, about 55% electric and rising.

Many pages ago, I stated this, and will state again - this is a pre-industrial economy we are looking at. Their steel output is just over one week's output in India. Their railway network and infrastructure is nonexistent for a country of that size, with many parameters off by 100x or more. Without capex into infrastructure, you cannot have long term growth. That cannot be accomplished by proxy through CPEC - they'll be stuck with depreciating assets they cannot maintain, and cannot pay down external borrowings on.

By 2030, most macro economic metrics between the countries that currently sit at 10:1 will expand to 15:1 or 20:1 , with some things far more.


Just see the condition of workshops of Pakistan Railways where the locomotives are serviced and overhauled. It looks the same as they got it in August 1947. Most of the work is done manually and the processes they follow should be seen to be believed. :rotfl:

One data point i got was the NLC locomotives (Transport cell of Pakistani Limitary) had a separate bay for its maintenance. The Locomotives are the same model used by the Pakistani Railways except all the NLC locomotives have Jhugaad AC's installed, has proper painted looks and is somewhat TFTA compared to the downright pathetic condition of the PR locomotives driven by the civilian Abdul's.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Atmavik » 02 Feb 2021 03:47

youtube has many videos on the state of pakistan railways. do watch this short video if u want to have a laugh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz7P9rld6C8

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Suraj » 02 Feb 2021 04:27

Their infrastructure spending was heavy in the mid-late 1990s under badmash. They built multiple long intercity motorways then, back before India had anything like that. They imported some TFTA looking Adtranz Blue Tiger locos. Not particularly powerful, but cool name at least. Probably 50% reliability today ?

The point isn't gleeful comparison. They're seriously lacking in even basic industrialization parameters, to an extent I was taken aback by when I first looked it up. The first time I looked at the stats I thought "What ? That can't be 190 locos . Is that a typo - it has to be at least a 1000 locos for such a decent network." Probably each of the individual IR zones has 5-10x as many locos as the entire PR. Passenger traffic in India is 140x theirs. Rail freight tonnage is 250x theirs, and will probably reach 300x with a few years with DFC coming online.

They didn't even have a country entry in worldsteel statistics until recently because they were small enough to be lumped with 'rest of Asia'. Nowadays the worldsteel stats report their steel output data backdated to 2010, but until about 2 years ago, they didn't get listed in the monthly stats at all. Electricity installed capacity India is 16x higher now, and widening.

Let's look at another core sector component - cement production. Their total production is 4MT . India produces 490MT, or 120x. Delhi-Mumbai Expressway is slated to consume 1% of India's annual cement production i.e. that one road uses up more than their entire annual cement production by the time it's done late next year.

They have some decent stats when it comes to things like textile production and exports, sports goods and some other things. But if you think about these, they're all very low capital, high labour input fields. They can't compete with volumes elsewhere, but depend on niches. In basic core sector industrial capability, they're lacking in capability to an extent I didn't realize until I looked at the data.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Feb 2021 06:52

Suraj i had a discussion with paxi long back...her viewpoint was that their interstate road transport is underutilized, esp after US is no longer transporting stuff to afghanistan to that extent and India literally refusing to play ball on afghanistan and CIS...they always think things will come directly/indirectly from india ..in recent discussions it came up that chinese will be taking these roles up..this is basically what we always felt CPEC stood for. Colonizing P for enrichment of China. Pakis are literally seeing another East India company unfold before themselves..
....
handsome has his task cut on getting petrol nan milk to his people

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby manjgu » 02 Feb 2021 08:28

Suraj wrote:Their infrastructure spending was heavy in the mid-late 1990s under badmash. They built multiple long intercity motorways then, back before India had anything like that. They imported some TFTA looking Adtranz Blue Tiger locos. Not particularly powerful, but cool name at least. Probably 50% reliability today ?

The point isn't gleeful comparison. They're seriously lacking in even basic industrialization parameters, to an extent I was taken aback by when I first looked it up. The first time I looked at the stats I thought "What ? That can't be 190 locos . Is that a typo - it has to be at least a 1000 locos for such a decent network." Probably each of the individual IR zones has 5-10x as many locos as the entire PR. Passenger traffic in India is 140x theirs. Rail freight tonnage is 250x theirs, and will probably reach 300x with a few years with DFC coming online.

They didn't even have a country entry in worldsteel statistics until recently because they were small enough to be lumped with 'rest of Asia'. Nowadays the worldsteel stats report their steel output data backdated to 2010, but until about 2 years ago, they didn't get listed in the monthly stats at all. Electricity installed capacity India is 16x higher now, and widening.

Let's look at another core sector component - cement production. Their total production is 4MT . India produces 490MT, or 120x. Delhi-Mumbai Expressway is slated to consume 1% of India's annual cement production i.e. that one road uses up more than their entire annual cement production by the time it's done late next year.

They have some decent stats when it comes to things like textile production and exports, sports goods and some other things. But if you think about these, they're all very low capital, high labour input fields. They can't compete with volumes elsewhere, but depend on niches. In basic core sector industrial capability, they're lacking in capability to an extent I didn't realize until I looked at the data.


till pulwama , a substantial part of 4M T cement was being exported to India as well especially northern states punjab, haryana, western UP !! a friend of mine from Ericcsson was in Pakistan around 2008 /9 for installing mobile towers/infra. he said ..like when we enter Delhi ( from faridabad, ghaziabad ..) or any other metro by train in india u see lot of small industries belching smoke , some kind of industrial activity going on... that kind of thing is totally absent in Paxistan. its just agriculture land. .some houses and then the railway station. He was there in month of august and on Paki independence day he saw small toy replicas of AK47 with kill india or destroy india written on them.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Suraj » 02 Feb 2021 09:44

Yes, the lack of signs of industrial activity are telling. This isn't to imply their data is fraudulent. That's a whole other discussion. This is an empirical review of the available data and such anecdotes that validate it. It's possible to have economic value add from the agricultural sector, a large services industry and a range of businesses that have low capital goods input. Without heavy industry, they cannot sustain anything for long when it comes to war obviously - there simply isn't the capability, and they're forced to borrow or buy armaments.

It's always been the case that India is much more industrialized, but the fact that major core sector indices are trending at over 100x differential currently is eye-opening... and troubling. Over the long term it portends a very large North Korea like entity - left further behind and more paranoid.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 02 Feb 2021 10:00

Suraj wrote:It's always been the case that India is much more industrialized, but the fact that major core sector indices are trending at over 100x differential currently is eye-opening... and troubling. Over the long term it portends a very large North Korea like entity - left further behind and more paranoid.

Maybe we were more industrialized but they were certainly richer on a per-capita basis like 40 years ago. This motion graphic illustrates the decline and fall of Paxtan better than others I have seen, and the game is far from over:

See for instance:
1. What a huge lead Punjab(PK) had over all Indian states in the 70s
2. How economy of Pak got a boost after the events of 2001
3. How Kerala and Balochistan were similar in GDP in the 70s; and where it is today (Kerala is about 17x Balochistan)
4. And of course the relative growth of different states of India

And best of all, there is a ton of more growth yet to come in the next decade pan-India.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Suraj » 02 Feb 2021 10:15

That is a fabulous time lapse video. I imagine Punjab PK would be on par with UP and less than MH, and am surprised they were so much more wealthier. India focused on land reforms and industrialization early, perhaps because of the loss of the fertile Indus irrigation areas. They on the other hand seem to have inflicted the Dutch disease upon themselves - happy with the bountiful irrigated areas, never reforming landownership or industrializing vigorously.

They’re just too far behind and too broke to invest heavily in industry now. In the current capex cycle, I hope we build out as much as possible in terms of DFCs, 20-25000km of expressways, multiple high speed lines, all coming on stream by 2030. The gulf in wealth is starting to be noticeable and needs to widen as much as possible.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby vimal » 02 Feb 2021 10:59

1970s was also when they went full dark green under Zia. Soviet Afghan war provided bounty but created lasting fissures that cannot be filled with Burnol.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Feb 2021 12:33

But I still feel Pakistan have excessive Mango trees and consume too much rice and wheat, Pakistan should export more wood, rice and wheat to service Interest on its loans.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Feb 2021 14:51

whenever they have huge inflow of american free funds their economy does better, post harrappa civilization, they have been a ponzi scheme all throughout their existence..with little apart from indus river system to support them. This was further increased by their bang bang policies

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Feb 2021 10:16

I think the best thing to happen will be PRC suffers a food shortage and they force Paki food stocks to be raided. Coming to think of it China Ladakh deployment means a raiding of Paki food stores. I am sure Paki food prices are seeing a food inflation in the last year or so.

Large parts of India, especially TN, WB had a food crisis in 1943, why this was the price of Soviet blood for defeating Nazism, when the Germans captured Ukraine in Sep 41, the correctly calculated the Soviets would start to starve.
What they did not count on was Soviet British invasion of Iran, from where supplies mainly food came from Non Martial races in India. Many Indians starved weakening bodies and brains but the world was saved. The Germans meaning exhausted themselves and were a spent for e by July 1943.

Sometimes many unconnected pieces in the world are connected.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby saip » 06 Feb 2021 21:57

Where are Indian Punjab and Haryana in this?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Feb 2021 22:21

What about Indian Punjab and Haryana, before Inpedence they were all PEPSU.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 09 Feb 2021 00:28

Pakistan is a country with 200 million population. It is going through a process of belly up. Just like the Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme.

What we are witnessing is a the process of belly up. It is a slow turning and irreversible process. One gets a vicarious pleasure to see their economy belly flop given that they never invested in their own population and at the same time an apprehension since such a belly flop will leave a black hole. And black hole do suck in resources.

Here is a video (video is in the link) showing the dire strait of affairs:

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/watch-fight-erupts-over-cake-after-pakistani-foreign-minister-shah-mahmood-qureshis-road-inauguration

Remember, this is a central union minister who has inaugurated a road. Not some local municipal councilor opening up a local municipal road. In other countries, even those are better managed affairs.

On a personal note, I traveled extensively through India in 2005. And from that point onwards I stopped watching Pakistan from the economic angle. Yes, India had lot of ground to cover, but it was already on a high growth trajectory and that was not the case with Pakistan.

Only reason to watch Pakistani "economy" for me is to get the vicarious pleasure and try to identify how big the black hole will be and its impact. Sometimes I do sometimes feel sorry for the people of Pakistan. It just proves that I am human. :)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 09 Feb 2021 01:02

Let them eat bread.
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rsatchi » 09 Feb 2021 01:09

g.sarkar wrote:Let them eat bread.
Gautam

:eek: :eek:
Saheb Atte ke Keemath Assmaan tak pahunchuka hai
Paise khahan se laye :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby anupmisra » 09 Feb 2021 01:13

disha wrote:
Pakistan is a country with 200 250 million population.
Only reason to watch Pakistani "economy" for me is to get the vicarious pleasure. Its called schadenfreude. I am guilty of that too.
Sometimes I do sometimes feel sorry for the people of Pakistan. Why? Remember the 80 Million!! Recall the perverse pleasure these packies get when Indians hurt. They are celebrating online the deaths of Indians due to the glacier burst.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 09 Feb 2021 02:17

AnupMisra'ji, thanks for the correction. 250 million indeed.

On the red second part, please also note that I mentioned in the sentence. Since the above just read alone is out of context.

I am human only. Not inhuman like them. So some sadness on the fall of part of India to such abyss and the ignorance in which the population lives does make me sad. And that to me means the pakistan project must be hastened to a faster conclusion.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 10 Feb 2021 02:58

Pakistan to seek debt relief from China Belt and Road loan.

Pakistan plans to ask China for relief on payments for power projects Beijing financed over the past eight years, the latest developing nation
that’s struggling to repay debt under President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

In informal talks, Pakistan and China have discussed easing terms on the repayment of debt on about a dozen power plants, according to a person
with knowledge of the matter, who said Islamabad hasn’t made a formal request yet. The parties have canvassed Beijing’s willingness to stagger debt payments, as opposed to lowering equity returns, :twisted: the person said, requesting anonymity as the plan is private,

:rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 10 Feb 2021 08:39

Take this you all dirty yindoos, Pakistan economy will grow next year and then accelerate from then onwards.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/economy/pakistan-economy-to-return-to-growth-in-2021-moodys-report

The government and central bank responses and reforms will partially soften the pandemic's impact and help revive the economy: Moody’s Investors Service

Pakistan economy will return to growth during the ongoing fiscal year 2020-21, but economic activity will remain below pre-outbreak levels, according to a latest report.

Moody’s Investors Service said the economy should return to modest 1.5 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in financial year 2021, which ends on June 30.

"Pakistan economy will return to growth in fiscal year 2020-21, gaining a modest 1.5 per cent and accelerate to 4.4 per cent in 2022. The government and central bank responses and reforms will partially soften the pandemic's impact and help revive the economy," according to the rating agency's latest report.

Last year, Pakistan economy contracted for the first time in 68 years by registering 0.4 per cent negative growth due to outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. It posted 1.9 per cent growth in fiscal year 2018-19 compared to a record-high 5.8 per cent GDP growth in 2017-18 when the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf came to power for the first time in Islamabad.


And the future is indeed bright.

Moody’s Investors Service further said the long-term credit growth potential is strong, given Pakistan's large unbanked population.

The State Bank of Pakistan, the central bank, has targeted 65 million active bank accounts, with total deposits accounting for 55 per cent of GDP, through increased use of mobile bank accounts, biometric verification systems and QR codes.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 10 Feb 2021 08:45

And further, a pig eating nation thinks that the partnership with pig breeding nation is very very beneficial.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1215116.shtml

This Leap benefits China-Pakistan Cooperation

The new leap of China's economy is the result of China's adherence to self-reliance and opening-up, the hard work of the Chinese people, as well as the support and contributions of friends from various countries including Pakistan. Therefore, the expansion of China's economic volume will not only benefit the Chinese people but also have a positive impact on the international community, especially create more development opportunities for Pakistan, China's all-weather strategic cooperative partner.

With the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the implementation of the Second Phase Protocol of the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement, China's new economic leap will bring a larger market and deeper cooperation potential for Pakistan and lays a more solid material foundation for upgrading China-Pakistan practical cooperation.

China's good economic performance can boost the determination and confidence of the two countries to join hands in fighting the pandemic. At the just-concluded World Economic Forum "Davos Agenda" dialogue, President Xi Jinping stated that China will continue to take an active part in international cooperation on COVID-19 and continue to implement a win-win strategy of opening up. China is still facing a tight anti-pandemic situation, and there is a severe supply and demand gap in vaccine production.

Even so, China, as a responsible major country in the international community, and a reliable partner who withstands the test in the face of danger, will do its best to make safe and effective Chinese vaccines available and affordable for the Pakistani people, and to boost Pakistan's economy to full recovery at an early date.

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan. China will take this opportunity to speed up the high-quality development of CPEC.

The two sides are in close communication and serious preparation for the upcoming 10th meeting of the CPEC Joint Cooperation Committee.

In the next stage, the two countries will take well-targeted steps in developing Gwadar Port, industrial parks, agriculture, science and technology, assisting Pakistan's development towards industrialization, urbanization, digitization and agricultural modernization.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 10 Feb 2021 08:53

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/video/1618/people-suffer-in-pok-as-inflation-touches-record-heights

Inflation in Pak-occupied-Cashmere. The visuals should be made to be shown on every Indian TV channel.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby disha » 10 Feb 2021 08:57

disha wrote:https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/video/1618/people-suffer-in-pok-as-inflation-touches-record-heights

Inflation in Pak-occupied-Cashmere. The visuals should be made to be shown on every Indian TV channel.


And this is from the stable of the presidential-candidate:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-13/supply-chains-latest-pakistan-s-ports-are-swamped-with-imports

supply lines
Food-Choked Ports Are a Drag on Pakistan’s Exporters


Prime Minister Imran Khan is under immense political pressure to put a lid on inflation, which at 8% in December was the highest among Asian economies tracked by Bloomberg. His government is now aggressively importing essentials like wheat, sugar and canola to curb price gains, which the International Monetary Fund sees increasing further to 8.8% in the year ending June.


Pakistan is going through Port Constipation!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 10 Feb 2021 09:23

disha wrote:https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/video/1618/people-suffer-in-pok-as-inflation-touches-record-heights

Inflation in Pak-occupied-Cashmere. The visuals should be made to be shown on every Indian TV channel.


Check the local populace showed there. Do you see anyone resembling a kashmiri or hear anyone with any accent other then pakjabi or urdu speaking Mohajirs? :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Feb 2021 09:33

Why are Pakis eating grains, the should export grains, they must take up 100% meat eating with huge exports of wood and minerals. Electricity and gas must given to Rape only.

The extra wheat imports must be given through CPEC corridor to supply food the PLA deployed Ladakh.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 10 Feb 2021 14:55

Aditya_V wrote:Why are Pakis eating grains, the should export grains, they must take up 100% meat eating with huge exports of wood and minerals. Electricity and gas must given to Rape only.
The extra wheat imports must be given through CPEC corridor to supply food the PLA deployed Ladakh.

ZAB had promised that Pak will eat grass. That too will happen soon. As posted earlier, Pakistan is going belly up. This has happened to other countries in recent times, such as South Africa and DDR. Pakistan is a good candidate for this change. Bas aap ko ghabrana naahi.
Gautam

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 10 Feb 2021 16:03

Vips wrote:
disha wrote:https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/video/1618/people-suffer-in-pok-as-inflation-touches-record-heights

Inflation in Pak-occupied-Cashmere. The visuals should be made to be shown on every Indian TV channel.


Check the local populace showed there. Do you see anyone resembling a kashmiri or hear anyone with any accent other then pakjabi or urdu speaking Mohajirs? :rotfl:


The fact that anybody thinks that they would look 'Kashmiri' is a failure of India in countering their narrative and propaganda at all levels over 70 years. The so-called POK is mostly a tiny sliver of Jammu (can at best be called POJ) and even genuine Jammu people are in a minority there with a mostly Punjabi-speaking population.

Yet, Pakistan is able to get away with calling them Kashmiris (including mostly Punjabi/Urdu speaking Mirpuris) whenever they show up for a rowdy protest, despite almost nobody knowing Kashmiri. Even the UK school system categorizes them as non-Kashmiri (Pakistani Mirpuri vs Pakistani Kashmiri) yet their bullshit is rarely called out by us and the Indian media mostly calls them Kashmiris as well.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 10 Feb 2021 16:12

And all India needs to do is to NOT have any trade with them till they return POK


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rohit_K » 11 Feb 2021 00:11

Matiari-Lahore 660 KV project: Chinese company threatens to move international court
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/787803 ... onal-court

ISLAMABAD: In the latest development, Chinese company Pak Matiari- Lahore Transmission Company (PMLTC), which completed ±660kV Matiari-Lahore HVDC Transmission Project with investment of $2.2 billion in two years time, has threatened to move the international arbitration court against the government-owned company National Transmission Dispatch Company (NTDC) for creating hurdles in the commissioning of the project.

The Chinese company has asked the board of directors of NTDC to hold a meeting and give it an opportunity for briefing on the causes of oscillation that happened on December 2, 2020 during the commissioning of the system. The project is the major flagship project of CPEC scheduled to achieve commercial operations date (COD) on 1st of March 2021. However, due to the deadlock, the commercial operation date of the project is in jeopardy.

In a letter written on February 06, 2021 to chairman of NTDC Board Naveed Ismail, Zhang Lei, Chief Executive Officer of Pak Matiari-Lahore Transmission Company, said that PMLTC completed the project in two years time and started the system commissioning on December 1, 2020. The letter also mentions that since the oscillation event occurred on December 2, 2020, the commissioning was suspended by NTDC for more than two months now and more than 300 engineers and technicians are sitting idle at the site. The letter has also been copied to the Federal Energy Minister, Secretary Power Division and Director General (China), China Division in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The letter also mentions that the parties are currently in a deadlock on finding out the way forward to resume the commissioning and progressing the project. In the letter CEO PMLTC has asked for time from the BOD chairman of NTDC for briefing on the reasons for oscillation to break the deadlock.

The official, while quoting the top management of PMLTC, said that in case the Government of Pakistan or NTDC do not listen to Chinese company's point of view, then it will have no option but to go for international arbitration. He said that the Chinese company has made direct investment of $2.2 billion in this project under the CPEC umbrella. The Matiari-Lahore HVDC Transmission Project once onstream will evacuate 4,000MW of electricity from south to north of the country.

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Re: Terroristan - November 11, 2019

Postby Suraj » 11 Feb 2021 00:41

$2.2 billion for an 800km HVDC line ? Not even a UHVDC link ? Meanwhile the PGCIL completed a 1730km UHVDC (800kV) line for $1.6 billion a couple of years ago. However we used short dark rice eating cables that transmit bijli through narrow filaments.

Gotta give it to the Chinese. No wonder they are growing so fast and getting so rich. China great. TSP so great it can afford to overpay so much. India poor, cannot afford to spend so much. PGCIL only gets paid peanuts, has to beg to buy roti for dinner.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Ambar » 11 Feb 2021 07:38

Report: Pakistan Asks China for Belt and Road Debt Relief
Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that Pakistan is asking China for relief on the debt from constructing about a dozen power plants under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Bloomberg quoted an anonymous source who said Pakistani and Chinese representatives have informally discussed proposals for easier debt repayment, but Islamabad has not made a formal request yet. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was not aware of any such discussions, and Pakistan’s energy agency did not reply to a request for comment on the report.

According to the Bloomberg report, the Pakistani government bit off more than it could chew by agreeing to buy a large number of power plants from China:

An enormous build-out of Chinese-financed power plants in Pakistan, which was originally intended to solve its electricity shortages, has resulted in a surplus that Islamabad isn’t able to afford.

[…]

While Chinese financing has helped Pakistan diversify fuel supplies, it has also resulted in a surplus of electricity, which is problematic for the government in Islamabad because it is the sole buyer and pays producers even when they don’t generate. To help tackle the issue, the government has negotiated with power plants, which produce roughly half of its electricity, to lower rates.A request for BRI debt relief would hardly be unprecedented, as several of China’s other clients have encountered difficulty repaying their loans, especially after the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic crushed the world economy.

The United States has accused Beijing of practicing “debt trap diplomacy” or “debt imperialism” by luring developing nations into taking out huge BRI loans from Chinese banks for projects of dubious long-term profitability, building up an unsustainable debt load the Chinese can use as leverage to seize important national assets or leverage control over local politics.

China and Pakistan had a public falling-out over BRI debt last month, leading to the indefinite postponement of the annual China-Pakistan Economic Corridor summit. The major points of disagreement reportedly concerned China’s reluctance to loan Pakistan more money for railroad projects because Islamabad is already having trouble making payments. The Chinese were also said to be concerned about “local politics” delaying the return on China’s infrastructure investments.

Nikkei Asian Review (NAR) reported in January that the Chinese were worried about Pakistan accumulating too much debt and demanding relief that might inspire other BRI clients to demand concessions of their own.
Analysts told NAR that China prefers its customers to be indebted in ways that maximize Beijing’s control:

“China is much more comfortable deferring payments or providing new financing than it is offering concessional rates in the first place,” [German Marshall Fund senior fellow Andrew] Small told Nikkei. He said this approach provides Beijing with greater leverage and control even if they are willing to be very flexible at the back-end.

With host countries under pressure to repay at higher rates, China trades payment deferments in return for influence, which helps it get more favorable arrangements.

The dispute in January mostly concerned Pakistani railroad projects, but about two-thirds of Pakistan’s $33 billion in BRI financing concerns the energy sector.

Pakistan is also struggling to handle debts to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its power plants, which are notoriously poor at collecting payments from electricity customers, creating a dangerous spiral of individuals and agencies who owe each other huge sums of money, a condition dubbed “circular debt.”
Every provider in Pakistan’s complex, calcified state-owned energy sector is sitting on a mountain of invoices that will never be paid, many end users are essentially stealing electricity from the power companies, and no one has any good ideas for how to make anyone else pay up. Aggrieved creditors cannot call the police for help collecting their debts because law enforcement in Pakistan is largely provincial, but the power distribution companies are owned by the federal government. The surplus capacity of electricity far in excess of demand created by the BRI power plants has greatly exacerbated the circular debt problem.


Kashi
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Kashi » 11 Feb 2021 12:44

Now waiting for the clamour to purchase "surplus" electricity from Napakis from the usual quarters.

Lisa
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Lisa » 11 Feb 2021 20:11

Rohit_K wrote:Matiari-Lahore 660 KV project: Chinese company threatens to move international court
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/787803 ... onal-court



Sir I think the international arbitration thing is a euphemism for we will tell you what to do, ie, the chinese government will decide what the arbitration will say.

Eg, https://guardian.ng/features/china-back ... y-at-risk/

China-backed railway agreement puts Kenya’s sovereignty at risk

"Even if there is dispute, Kenya would have no option but to agree with Beijing’s terms as one clause in the Mombasa- Nairobi loan pact says any disputes on the loan would only be resolved in Beijing through the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission (Cietac). And shockingly, Kenya has been made to sign that it would never dispute the choice of Cietac as an arbitrator and to take its decision."

By the way, both the agreement with pukis and Kenya were deemed to be confidential. The Kenyan one was hacked and then published online, thus the data.

K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby K Mehta » 11 Feb 2021 20:46

The Chinese were also said to be concerned about “local politics” delaying the return on China’s infrastructure investments.

Add to this the recent praise of Shahbaz Sharif by an outgoing Chinese diplomat. This would mean that Chini abbu wants noon league back in power. Especially with the complete f*** up of baki dekhonomoney by dimran and foreign policy by qureshi, this becomes a very attractive option for the miltablishment. Right now all they need is for Shahbaz to form his own party.

Aldonkar
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aldonkar » 11 Feb 2021 21:08

Lisa wrote:
Rohit_K wrote:Matiari-Lahore 660 KV project: Chinese company threatens to move international court
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/787803 ... onal-court



Sir I think the international arbitration thing is a euphemism for we will tell you what to do, ie, the chinese government will decide what the arbitration will say.

Eg, https://guardian.ng/features/china-back ... y-at-risk/

China-backed railway agreement puts Kenya’s sovereignty at risk

"Even if there is dispute, Kenya would have no option but to agree with Beijing’s terms as one clause in the Mombasa- Nairobi loan pact says any disputes on the loan would only be resolved in Beijing through the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission (Cietac). And shockingly, Kenya has been made to sign that it would never dispute the choice of Cietac as an arbitrator and to take its decision."

By the way, both the agreement with pukis and Kenya were deemed to be confidential. The Kenyan one was hacked and then published online, thus the data.


Lisa, I don't know if you keep in touch with folk in Kenya. I am still in touch with one or two people that I went to school with and am informed that the new Chinese Railway peters out in a village west of Nakuru. I does not go as far as Kisumu or further west to Uganda. It is thus not optimal for servicing any market except Kenya though the Guardian article states it is meant to service markets in central Africa. In Kenya it is called the Railway to Nowhere.

There is a proposal to extend it to Kisumu and beyond to Uganda but the Kenya Gov. seems to have wised up and will not sign the contract, which is presumably similar to the one for the existing stretch.

Deans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 11 Feb 2021 22:07

What can China do if a BRI country simply refuses to pay ? Unlike the US, they don't have the means to do regime change. Any country defaulting will have a domino effect with the dictator/strongman in neighboring countries also refusing to pay up. Non payment would also greatly improve the popularity of otherwise unpopular leaders.

Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 11 Feb 2021 22:39

Deans wrote:What can China do if a BRI country simply refuses to pay ? Unlike the US, they don't have the means to do regime change. Any country defaulting will have a domino effect with the dictator/strongman in neighboring countries also refusing to pay up. Non payment would also greatly improve the popularity of otherwise unpopular leaders.


That would work for a somewhat normal country like SL etc provided that they have good relations with another large country/bloc like India or US who can back them up.

Pakistanis however have burned all their bridges and crawled deep up the CCP-occupied Hanland's backside. Unless the Americans decide to forget the last 30 years and take them back to the era of Zia and the Afghan Jihad, they have nowhere else to turn. They have pissed of the gulf states who were their true benefactors and have nowhere else to turn. Pakistan without China supporting them will be worse off than a NK without China.


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