Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

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Manish_P
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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 09 Mar 2020 11:52

^ How full are our storage levels?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby deejay » 09 Mar 2020 12:21

Manish_P wrote:^ How full are our storage levels?


Full to the brim. Total storage Strategic plus normal for approx 85 days I think.

We can always replace the stored crude with cheaper crude.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 09 Mar 2020 13:16

85 days :shock:

I thought that was work in progress sir?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby deejay » 09 Mar 2020 13:18

Manish_P wrote:85 days :shock:

I thought that was work in progress sir?


Strategic reserves is 10 days. Rest is Oil Co Supply reserves of 60+ days plus fuel already in supply lines.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Malayappan » 09 Mar 2020 14:29

Saudi crown prince signals new purge with ‘treason’ arrests
A purge of princes and aides continued across Saudi Arabia on Saturday after the kingdom’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, claimed to have foiled a coup being plotted by two of the country’s most senior royals – widely seen as among the few left standing in the way of his ascension.
Prince Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz, the only full brother of the monarch, King Salman, and Mohammed bin Nayef, who was heir to the throne until being ousted by Prince Mohammed, face treason charges after being accused of organising against the ambitious heir.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Malayappan » 09 Mar 2020 14:33

Saudi Arabia seals off Shia Qatif region over coronavirus fears
The lockdown on Qatif on Sunday, an eastern area that is home to around 500,000 people, is the first action of its kind across the Gulf region, which has confirmed more than 230 coronavirus cases – most of them people returning from religious pilgrimages to Shia-majority Iran.
The government also decided to temporarily suspend “the travel of citizens and residents to the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, South Korea, Egypt, Italy and Iraq, as well as suspend the entry of those coming from those countries”, the agency reported.

“The kingdom also decided to stop air and sea travel between the kingdom and the mentioned countries,” it added.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kit » 09 Mar 2020 14:54

ldev wrote:Saudis Instigate Oil-Price Clash With Russia

Friction between Saudi Arabia and Russia began in early February, when Prince Mohammed asked his father, King Salman, to phone Mr. Putin and to request Russia’s cooperation on new output curbs. When the king called, Mr. Putin initially wouldn’t make himself available to speak to him. :rotfl: When he did talk to the king, Mr. Putin refused to commit, according to Saudi officials.


By the time the gathering began, the Saudis’ entreaties had alienated both Mr. Putin and his energy minister Alexander Novak, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Novak has worked closely with his Saudi counterparts in the past but wasn’t consulted by them before they reached out to Mr. Putin, the people said :roll: .


So the Saudis tried to bypass the Russian Oil Minister thinking that he was being an obstacle to production cuts only to realize that Putin backed his oil minister's policies 100%.

Russia can balance it's budget with oil at 42 dollars/barrel. Saudi needs oil at 77-82 dollars/barrel. So guess who is going to be able to withstand the pain longer. I think this is another mistake being committed by MBS.


Saudis have the lowest breakeven of around 10 USD per barrel of production however they are not that productive with a return of 26 whereabouts last year. Russia has much higher production costs esp in far east Siberian fields.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ldev » 09 Mar 2020 20:49

^^^^^
This is the oil price needed for the respective national budgets to balance as both countries get a percentage of national oil sales as budget revenues. The Saudis's with their bloated welfare state is significantly more dependent on oil revenues than the Russian economy which is much more diversified. Hence the $42/barrel for the Russian budget to balance itself and the much higher price needed by Saudi Arabia.

Also, the ruble floats and hence dollar denominated cost of production is lower as the ruble gets devalued against the dollar. By contrast the Saudi riyal is fixed to the US $.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby vera_k » 09 Mar 2020 21:02

^ However those numbers assume each producer maintains their current market share. If Saudi Arabia corners the market, the other producers will be out of luck. Won't matter much in the USA, since if the shale producers go bankrupt, they will just be bought out and will start up again with lower costs. Unclear if Russia has that ability.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ldev » 09 Mar 2020 21:11

From the Financial Times of March 2. Maybe this is why Russia walked away from the OPEC +1 quota arrangement.

Falling oil prices threaten to derail Putin’s spending promises
Russia could finance its budgetary obligations for four years even with oil at $30 a barrel, Anton Siluanov, Russia’s finance minister, also said on Friday.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 09 Mar 2020 21:15

That's exactly the game plan of Saudi. Due to decreased demand thanks to COVID19 virus, Saudis needed production curbs and price increase. Russia didn't play ball. Now Saudis have dropped the price to a level where they will take market share away from competition. They will be able to balance their budget by increased production. It's Russia that would be pissed now.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ldev » 09 Mar 2020 21:22

schinnas wrote:That's exactly the game plan of Saudi. Due to decreased demand thanks to COVID19 virus, Saudis needed production curbs and price increase. Russia didn't play ball. Now Saudis have dropped the price to a level where they will take market share away from competition. They will be able to balance their budget by increased production. It's Russia that would be pissed now.

Russia has US shale producers as their target. Because all the production cuts by OPEC + Russia over the last 2 years have been neutralized by increased US shale production. And the Russians are pi***d at the US for all the sanctions including on Rosneft. So Russia targeted the US shale producers to cause main in the US oil patch, think Texas which is very important in this year's US elections, and the Saudis are targeting Russian customers.

Popcorn time. I wonder who will blink first.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby V_Raman » 09 Mar 2020 21:59

schinnas wrote:
V_Raman wrote:So the scenario predicted by an Indian in the early 1900s - I forget his name - that China+Islam vs India+West is coming true!


Who was that? Any link or book suggestion would be appreciated.

China + Pak vs India + US makes sense. China + Islam is questionable.


Found it finally - Bipin Chandra ppal
http://kalchiron.blogspot.com/2010/11/b ... sh-of.html

book at https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id= ... =1up&seq=7

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 10 Mar 2020 00:21

Thank you.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby V_Raman » 10 Mar 2020 04:34

Britain coming off EU is important - I would expect India to deepen defense collaboration with them - any trade agreement with USA might include Britain as well.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ranjan.rao » 10 Mar 2020 20:10

V_Raman wrote:Britain coming off EU is important - I would expect India to deepen defense collaboration with them - any trade agreement with USA might include Britain as well.

Nothing is gonna come out of it. Under the current US led world regime there is little they can offer us today. Apart from Engine tech, quite a lot of things seem to be well within our grasp. Rest of the things, if they have to come, will find their way on our terms rather than we reaching out for them....

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 11 Mar 2020 19:39

a report that is a year old

Spread of Wahhabism was done at request of West during Cold War – Saudi crown prince




The Saudi-funded spread of Wahhabism began as a result of Western countries asking Riyadh to help counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Washington Post.

Speaking to the paper, bin Salman said that Saudi Arabia's Western allies urged the country to invest in mosques and madrassas overseas during the Cold War, in an effort to prevent encroachment in Muslim countries by the Soviet Union.

He added that successive Saudi governments had lost track of that effort, saying "we have to get it all back." Bin Salman also said that funding now comes mostly from Saudi-based "foundations," rather than from the government.

The crown prince’s 75-minute interview with the Washington Post took place on March 22. Another topic of discussion included a previous claim by US media that bin Salman had said that he had White House senior adviser Jared Kushner "in his pocket."

Bin Salman denied reports that when he and Kushner – who is also Donald Trump's son-in-law – met in Riyadh in October, he had sought or received a greenlight from Kushner for the massive crackdown on alleged corruption which led to widespread arrests in the kingdom shortly afterwards. According to bin Salman, the arrests were a domestic issue and had been in the works for years.

He said it would be "really insane" for him to trade classified information with Kushner, or to try to use him to advance Saudi interests within the Trump administration. He stated that their relationship was within a normal governmental context, but did acknowledge that he and Kushner "work together as friends, more than partners." He stated that he also had good relationships with Vice President Mike Pence and others within the White House.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby wig » 09 Apr 2020 20:05

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/150 ... 656781.htm

150 members of Saudi royal family may have been hit by coronavirus
excerpt
A senior prince, who is the governor of Riyadh, is reportedly in intensive care, while over a dozen other family members are undergoing treatment.

According to the report, several members have taken ill and the alarming situation came to light after officials of the King Faisal Specialist Hospital, the elite hospital that treats royal family members, sent out an internal “high alert” regarding the arrangement of around 500 beds for an expected influx of members of the royal clan.

“We don’t know how many cases we will get but high alert… all chronic patients to be moved out ASAP,” the message stated as per the report.

The message also instructed the hospital to accept only “top urgent cases” and added that any sick staff members would now be treated at a less elite hospital to make room for the royals, said the report.

Sources told the media that around 150 members of the Al-Saud clan, the family ruling the desert nation, has contracted the virus.

The pandemic has forced several key members of the elite family to leave the capital and opt for seclusion. This includes the 84-year-old ruler King Salman, who has secluded himself for his safety in an island palace near the city of Jeddah.

The de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, along with several ministers, has retreated to a remote site on the Red Sea coastline, the report added.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby suryag » 09 Apr 2020 21:14

I hope Iran doesnt trigger a coup or something

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 09 Apr 2020 22:16

ranjan.rao wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Britain coming off EU is important - I would expect India to deepen defense collaboration with them - any trade agreement with USA might include Britain as well.

Nothing is gonna come out of it. Under the current US led world regime there is little they can offer us today. Apart from Engine tech, quite a lot of things seem to be well within our grasp. Rest of the things, if they have to come, will find their way on our terms rather than we reaching out for them....


the britshits are ameriki poodles.

the ameriki masters will not allow Indian opportunities and markets to be accessed by their lapdogs and India does not share any great relationship with the treacherous britshits considering all that has been made public so far about how they left India hobbled when they fled in 1947 and how they are among the key BIF.

still, we may have some unremarkable and ordinary business ties with them.

they are and always have been paki backers, through and through.

On commonwealth matters, they are very circumspect whilst dealing with India.

If India leaves, the old foggies club will wind up and sink without a single trace.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Prithwiraj » 10 Apr 2020 17:19

I guess all the investment talk of Aramco and Reliance is on back burner now. This is going to hurt elder Ambani also in his petro business.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 11 Apr 2020 17:32

Prithwiraj wrote:I guess all the investment talk of Aramco and Reliance is on back burner now. This is going to hurt elder Ambani also in his petro business.



apparently the envisaged stake sale by reliance in the petroleum and telecom space to foreign entities like aramco and facebook has (very rightly too) run into difficulties especially since the GoI was wilfully bypassed in the negotiations.

these are matters of grave NATSEC ramifications and may well wind up having far reaching strategic implications that are disquieting, to say the least, and it is somewhat like the fox being invited to take up permanent residence in the henhouse.

The future ownership/significant stake holder patterns of both foreign entities cannot be foretold at this juncture. The chinese (huawei for example) may well turn out to be one of such double dealing stakeholder in a pole position thus enabling it to dictate reliance's telecom infrastructure and equipment upgrade policies

the GoI preferred the russians to the saudis when it made the Essar Oil deal. Would the saudis have allowed either the GoI or even reliance the same/similar terms and do we fondly imagine that the saudis did not try every trick in the book to get their way in the essar deal. Having spectacularly failed there, reliance is their second big try.

we need to thank God that the govt changed. the saudis would have walked all over singh using "minority" influences to steer and seal the deal.

We need to ask: why are the saudis so keen and desperate.

The pakis have long been begging the saudis for just such a deal and investment and yet the saudis are hell bent on India



7O YEARS OF INDIA-RUSSIA: OIL & GAS HIGHLIGHTS

A consortium led by Russian oil major Rosneft acquired India's Essar Oil for USD 13 Billion. Indian companies Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Oil India Limited and Bharat PetroResources Litd acquired equity in 'Tass-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha' and 'Vankorneft', making it the largest equity oil acquisition ever by India.


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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby vishvak » 25 Apr 2020 12:10

Suggesting this thread to keep track of how Saudis manage Wuhan virus epidemic during holy month.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby vimal » 19 May 2020 22:11

Krystal and Saagar react: FBI REVEALS Saudi sponsored attack on US soil, Trump and media ignore



This is getting more air nowadays.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Avtar Singh » 22 May 2020 19:07

Arab Train Leaves the Station

https://www.melaniephillips.com/israel- ... g-station/


“People say out in the open that they do not care about the Palestinian cause and about the Arabs in general, and that we must steer our relations in keeping with our interests. Israel is an advanced country and we can benefit from it. We should deal with reality. The relations with Israel have become warm. It is no longer just about normalization.”

Earlier this week, news broke that an Etihad Airways plane on a direct flight from Dubai landed in Tel Aviv to deliver a consignment of virus aid to the Palestinians. This was the first known direct commercial flight between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby darshan » 31 Oct 2020 21:03

India asks Riyadh to take 'corrective steps' on currency showing Jammu and Kashmir separate
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indi ... ate-338862
...
The ministry of external affairs spokesperson Anurag Shrivastava during his weekly virtually presser said, "We have conveyed our serious concern to Saudi Arabia....for this gross misrepresentation of India's external territorial boundaries on an official and legal banknote of Saudi Arabia" and have "asked the Saudi side for taking urgent corrective steps in this regard."

"I would like to further reiterate that entire Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are integral parts of India," he said.
...

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Kati » 31 Oct 2020 22:15

^^^^^^^
India should either stay away from G-20 meeting in SA or send a very low level representation.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 31 Oct 2020 22:19

deejay wrote:
Manish_P wrote:^ How full are our storage levels?


Full to the brim. Total storage Strategic plus normal for approx 85 days I think.

We can always replace the stored crude with cheaper crude.



we also were thinking of having extra storage stashed away in the US but that was before covid intervened
Last edited by chetak on 31 Oct 2020 22:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 31 Oct 2020 22:25

Avtar Singh wrote:Arab Train Leaves the Station

https://www.melaniephillips.com/israel- ... g-station/


People say out in the open that they do not care about the Palestinian cause and about the Arabs in general, and that we must steer our relations in keeping with our interests. Israel is an advanced country and we can benefit from it. We should deal with reality. The relations with Israel have become warm. It is no longer just about normalization.”

Earlier this week, news broke that an Etihad Airways plane on a direct flight from Dubai landed in Tel Aviv to deliver a consignment of virus aid to the Palestinians. This was the first known direct commercial flight between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.


palestinians are known trouble makers known for their demanding ways all over the gulf region. they are not hard working or even willing workers and think that they are entitled to everything and the arabs must compensate them for all the "alleged" hardships that they have been subjected to by the israelis

they seem to think that the whole world owes them everything and that too for free.

these guys are highly political by nature and interfere constantly in local affairs and so they are generally shunned and kicked around because of this reason

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 06 Nov 2020 14:55

chetak wrote:
deejay wrote:
Full to the brim. Total storage Strategic plus normal for approx 85 days I think.

We can always replace the stored crude with cheaper crude.


we also were thinking of having extra storage stashed away in the US but that was before covid intervened


Ok. But wouldn't it be challenging on account of the distance and to a much lesser extent also at risk due to US policy pressure (especially if the Democrats are in power) of saving their rent-boys on our western flank.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2020 15:30

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:
we also were thinking of having extra storage stashed away in the US but that was before covid intervened


Ok. But wouldn't it be challenging on account of the distance and to a much lesser extent also at risk due to US policy pressure (especially if the Democrats are in power) of saving their rent-boys on our western flank.


we can easily trade or exchange the oil stored in US locations with petroleum resources closer to India.

there are uncounted numbers of oil/commodity brokers OK with doing high seas trade.

One need not necessarily transport it all the way from the US.

I understand that some of the gulf states have storage in India from which they trade. In any emergency, India will exercise the right of first refusal for all such oil.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 06 Nov 2020 16:36

Very Interesting. Wouldn't there be some end user checks and controls in place? I have zilch understanding of the oil trade.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby g.sarkar » 09 Dec 2020 14:59

https://theprint.in/defence/what-india- ... ef/562866/
What India, Saudi, UAE look to gain from Gen. Naravane trip, a first by an Indian Army chief
General M.M. Naravane will begin a week-long trip to both countries, starting 9 December, in what is considered a sign of growth in India's ties with the Middle East.
Snehesh Alex Philip, 8 December, 2020

New Delhi: Regular joint military exercises and training besides joint production of defence equipment are some of the goals that India, UAE and Saudi Arabia look to achieve on Army chief General M.M. Naravane’s week-long trip to the two key Middle East countries.
This is the first visit by an Indian Army chief to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and is seen as a sign of how India’s ties with the Middle East has improved over the past few years, sources in the defence and security establishment said.
During the visit from 9 to 14 December, Gen. Naravane will be meeting his counterparts and the senior military leadership of these countries.
Sources said that the visit was scheduled for earlier but was postponed due to the Covid pandemic. The delay also affected the first bilateral Army exercise with both countries. According to the plan, 45-member delegations from each of the UAE and Indian armies were set to travel to the other country for similar military exercises.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby g.sarkar » 14 Dec 2020 07:16

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... tIyeI.html
Army chief Gen. Naravane holds talks with Royal Saudi Land Forces Commander on defence cooperation
Gen Naravane, who arrived in Saudi Arabia on the second leg of his two-nation visit that included the United Arab Emirates, is the first-ever head of the Indian Army to travel to the two strategically important Gulf countries.
Press Trust of India | Posted by Srivatsan K C, Dec 13, 2020, Riyadh

Indian Army chief General M M Naravane on Sunday discussed issues of bilateral defence cooperation with Commander of the Royal Saudi Land Forces General Fahd Bin Abdullah Mohammed Al-Mutir during his historic visit to the Gulf Kingdom.
Gen Naravane, who arrived in Saudi Arabia on the second leg of his two-nation visit that included the United Arab Emirates, is the first-ever head of the Indian Army to travel to the two strategically important Gulf countries.
“COAS discussed issues of bilateral defence cooperation with General Fahd Bin Abdullah Mohammed Al-Mutir, Commander Royal Saudi Land Forces,” the Indian Army’s Additional Directorate General of Public Information said in a tweet on Sunday.
He also received a Guard of Honour at headquarters of the Royal Saudi Land Forces.
......
Gautam

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ashbhee » 14 Dec 2020 09:35

It wouldn't surprise me if pak army supports one of the rival factions in Saudi royal family and try to Engineer a coup

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby salaam » 14 Dec 2020 09:43

ashbhee wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if pak army supports one of the rival factions in Saudi royal family and try to Engineer a coup


Unfortunately for north-west-frontier-Bhartiya army, its not as easy as a crazy Nepalese prince.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby g.sarkar » 14 Dec 2020 18:18

ashbhee wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if pak army supports one of the rival factions in Saudi royal family and try to Engineer a coup

If successful they will make money "bigley", otherwise:
https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-a ... 019-2020-4
Gautam

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby IndraD » 15 Dec 2020 16:42

http://muslimmirror.com/eng/saudi-arabi ... ainst-caa/
Saudi deports Indians protesting against Modi & NRC-CAA

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby g.sarkar » 20 Dec 2020 23:02

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/t ... 201219.htm
26/11 set up India-Saudi strategic ties
By SYED FIRDAUS ASHRAF, December 19, 2020.

'The attacks made clear to all the Gulf States that Pakistan was the nursery and sanctuary of extremist violence and that this violence threatened all the countries in the region.'
Ambassador Talmiz Ahmad, an Indian Foreign Service officer of 1974 vintage, served as India's Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE.
Arguably, India's best-informed voice on matters relating to India's relationships with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, Ambassador Ahmad explains to Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com the significance of Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane's recent visits to Saudi Arabia.
What is the significance of General Naravane's visit to Saudi Arabia? What message does it convey to India-Saudi ties and to the global community?
It is an extremely important visit. It affirms that ties between India and Saudi Arabia are very deep and substantial.
The basis for these ties lies in the Riyadh Declaration that was issued during the visit of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in February 2010.
In a pioneering initiative, the two countries had then committed themselves to setting up a 'strategic partnership', encompassing cooperation in security, defence, the economy and cultural fields.
This 'strategic partnership' had its origin in the Pakistan-sponsored attacks on Mumbai in November 2008.
These attacks had made clear to all the Gulf States that Pakistan was the nursery and sanctuary of extremist violence and that this violence threatened all the countries in the region.
This is how India and the Gulf States became partners in counter-terrorism efforts.
Defence cooperation forms an important part of the joint statements issued during the interactions between India and Saudi Arabia during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two visits to Riyadh and the return visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The army chief's visit to Saudi Arabia is an attempt to give substance to defence cooperation that we had agreed to earlier.
This engagement is an important development primarily because Saudi's main defence relationship has been with the United States and Western powers in general. US troops are located in that region and the US is the principal source of defence supplies to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia has also had very close defence ties with Pakistan. The relation was put together during the Cold War when the USA, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan built a strong trilateral relationship to support Western interests in the region.
In fact, between 1968-1988, Pakistan had 25,000 soldiers in Saudi Arabia for the defence of its borders. These forces were removed in 1988, but defence cooperation has continued.
In this background, the Saudi outreach to India in the defence sector suggests a historic broadening of the kingdom's security interests that now embrace India.
......
Gautam


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