Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

[svinayak]

Sunnis and Anglos are running jihadi battles in other countries. The most of sound bytes seem to be about that and nothing more. In Europe there are now anti immigration rhetoric along with rise of the Christian right. So even in the most civilized atmosphere in Europe these people are at loggerheads with their own politics.

There is a soft war going on between islamic jehadists and christian crusaders all over the world not just in the middle east. This soft war is masked by political correctness, but behind the mask there is a very real war going on to preserve and promote islamism and christianism. Both these abrahamic relgions are just faiths which grew by suppressing and eliminating other faiths and spiritual traditions. Both these faiths in their pure form cannot stand reason and do not represent the truth. Only indic/dharmic traditions which evolved over 10000 years and was not started by a single individual can stand reason and emphasize truth over mere faith. My 2 cents.

The current situation is also because for the first time Asia has become stronger then Europe and Middle east - after many centuries
This is creating the geo political shift and a new order

The nazariya Pakistan is coming to the junction of history and the fork of history. See the first 11 min of this

[ramana]

For completeness:

I strongly suspect that Pakistan was involved in the suicide bombing of the Iranian embassy in Beirut yesterday.

From The Hindu report,

A Lebanese-based al-Qaeda-linked group known as the Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility for the double suicide attack.

Sheikh Sirajeddine Zuraiqat, the religious guide of the Brigades, said in a Twitter post that the group had carried out the strike.

“It was a double martyrdom operation by two of the Sunni heroes of Lebanon,” he wrote.

Now, Abdullah Azzam was the mentor of Osama bin Laden and was active in Af-Pak, especially Peshawar until he was eliminated in c. 1989 (attributed variously to USSR, Israel and OBL himself). Hafeez Saeed and Azzam started Maktab al Khidmat (Office of Service) which, after Azzam's assassination, became Jamaat-ud-Dawah. Though Abdullah Azzam was a teacher in King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah before he moved to Pakistan, the bulk of Azzam's radical work was in Pakistan.

Abdullah Azzam Brigade was setup in Orakzai a few years back and it was accredited as part of TTP. It has been involved in several terrorist acts including the killing of 22 Khasadar police officers in Torkham in August 2009.

With Pakistan being involved increasingly in Syria at the behest of Saudi Arabia, even to the extent of spreading polio terror apart from its usual brand of terror, the Abdullah Azzam Brigade is a giveaway of its involvement in Beirut as well, IMO.

If A A Brigade is part of TTP and the latter is involved in the fight against the less pure TSPA, is KSA also bankrolling the TTP?

[ramana]

Hats off SSridhar for the accurate conclusion of Paki role in the Iran embassy bombing in Beirut.

Time magazine:

AA brigade behind the Iran Embassy in Beirut attack

...
The attack is but the latest spectacle brought about by a loosely aligned terrorist group with branches in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. In 2012, the organization was declared both a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group by the U.S. Department of State. Two of the branches were singled out: the Saudi Arabian wing for a 2010 attack on a Japanese oil tanker off the coast of Oman and the Lebanese wing for a series of rocket attacks against Israel.


Formed in 2004 as an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades initially set out to attack Western interests in the Middle East and the Levant. In 2005 they claimed credit in tandem with another jihadi group for a coordinated bombing at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh that killed 88. The organization’s mandate has since expanded, calling for the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy and a Sunni uprising in multiethnic Lebanon. In 2009 the brigades took responsibility for an attack on the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan, that killed 17, though it is not entirely clear how close the relationship is between the Pakistani branch and the others.

By 2012 members of the group were thought to be in Syria, fighting alongside rebels aligned against the regime of President Bashar Assad. That same year they issued an audio message threatening any Lebanese Shi‘ites caught fighting on Assad’s behalf, a clear reference to the Lebanon-based Shi‘ite militia Hizballah. Hizballah’s main backer is Iran; yesterday’s attack on the Iranian embassy appears to be an escalation of that threat.

But the Abdullah Azzam Brigades have continued to dabble in their anti-Israel activities as well, claiming credit for a series of rocket attacks from Lebanon on Israeli targets on Aug. 22. “This operation comes within the series of our jihadi work directed at the Jews,” they said in a statement translated by SITE and posted by the Long War Journal.

The brigades are named after Abdullah Azzam, Osama bin Laden’s Palestinian mentor whose charisma and oratory drew thousands of foreign fighters to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet invasion in the mid-’80s, creating the core of al-Qaeda. He also helped found Hamas. Azzam was assassinated in a bomb attack in Peshawar in 1989. Though no one knows for certain who was behind the assassination, many blame Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al-Qaeda. The two men argued frequently over the meaning and goals of jihad. Azzam’s son-in-law and confidant, the Algerian mujahid Abdullah Anas, told TIME in 2009 that his father-in-law would be appalled by the current justifications of jihad practiced by groups similar to the Abdullah Azzam Brigades. “He called people to fight in Afghanistan because it was occupied by the Soviets. If he saw what happened in Iraq and what is happening in Palestine he would say the same thing. But what is going on in the name of jihad, killing civilians, kidnapping, hijacking airplanes, explosions in the public places — that is not what Abdullah Azzam called a jihad.” Azzam, said Anas, never believed Muslims should kill Muslims, no matter their sect. It’s likely that he wouldn’t have been too pleased to see his name attached to Tuesday’s attack in Lebanon, either.

So the Western Media task of bolstering the image of a humane jihadi is still intact!!!!


I expect blowback will do something in Islamabad.

[Lilo]

Hats off SSridhar for the accurate conclusion of Paki role in the Iran embassy bombing in Beirut.

R ji,
I for one not surprised as when it comes to TSP, few posting on internet can match the depth and handle SS ji has on these issues.

[ramana]

http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/01/hoodwinked-jobless-back/

According to this link, 143000 Indians have been sent home from KSA till Jan 2014.

Workers returning to Kerala from the Gulf. Credit: K.S. Harikrishnan/IPS.

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, India , Jan 8 2014 (IPS) - Ashik Rehman, 47, worked as a labourer in the southern Indian state of Kerala. He left for Saudi Arabia two years ago, hoping to earn enough to buy a house in his native place. Now he is back and staring at a bleak future.

Rehman was promised a shop salesman’s job by his travel agent. But after he landed in the Saudi capital Riyadh, he was sent to work at a construction site as a sweeper. His sponsor did not take legal measures to correct his work permit.

“I was treated like a slave there. I was not given proper food, leave or salary,” he told IPS.

“Many sponsors are evasive when it comes to giving legal status to workers."

To make things worse, Saudi Arabia enforced a naturalisation rule called Nitaqat, forcing Rehman to return to his hometown Kozhikode in Kerala last October. He has not found a job yet.

The Nitaqat law, announced in 2011, makes it mandatory for all private firms to recruit at least 10 percent Saudi nationals in their labour force. For expatriates who do not have proper job or visa documents, the law entails punitive measures such as arrest or deportation.

With 2.8 million Indians making up the largest expatriate community in Saudi Arabia, the law has hit those who have been in the kingdom without proper work documents.

“Many sponsors are evasive when it comes to giving legal status to workers. Because of the disinterest of my sponsor, I had to return. Now I am living in a rented house and trying to figure out how to earn my living,” Rehman told IPS.

According to Indian government estimates, 134,000 workers have returned due to implementation of the new Nitaqat policy.

“Travel agents make things more difficult for hapless migrant workers,” Jamaludeen, who has also returned, told IPS. “They fabricate jobs and employers who don’t exist. Before the migrants can figure out they have been hoodwinked, they find themselves in farmhouses in remote areas and unknown agricultural fields in the deserts.”

The reverse migration of undocumented workers from Saudi Arabia has prompted the returnees to demand that the Indian government implement a comprehensive rehabilitation package for expatriates.

“Since the Gulf War of 1990-1991, we have been hearing false promises of rehabilitation packages,” said S. Ahmed, chairman of the NRI Coordination Council. He said the government had done little to help expatriates who had to return because of the Nitaqat rule. The Council demanded that all non-resident families that return from Saudi Arabia be included in a comprehensive health insurance project.

The effects of Nitaqat are showing up in many ways in India particularly in sectors dependent on Gulf money. These include a slowdown in construction work, in the real estate business, in motor vehicle sales and dwindling wages of daily workers.

This is particularly true of Kerala because, of the 2.8 million Indians in Saudi Arabia, one million are from this state. After the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is the most favoured destination for the state’s migrant population.

Dr. Sree Nair, a Kerala-based migration researcher, said the government should make sure that the returnees are rehabilitated and resettled in their homeland.

“Return migrants do not attract much attention from the government. But Nitaqat has brought about a situation where the void in government planning on migration and a remittance-dependent economy has become evident,” she told IPS.

“The services for returnees are inadequate. Not just financial assistance but proper guidance on possible areas of utilising their skills in domestic or foreign labour markets should also be provided. Most returnees are not looking for freebies from the government but for an appropriate re-entry into job markets,” she told IPS.

Kerala is the only state in the country which has announced rehabilitation measures for returnees, including interest-free loans and services to help them find jobs in other Gulf countries.

Abu Ali, who gives legal aid to foreign workers in Jeddah, said there were many foreigners, including Indians, who were declared to be absconding by their sponsors as the latter wanted to avoid making final settlements.

“Many migrants may have been working there for more than 10 years, but there is no legal forum to challenge sponsors who cheat,” he told IPS.

K.U. Iqbal, a Riyadh–based reporter of Malayalam News, a sister publication of Arab News, told IPS over the phone that 1.3 million Indian workers, who initially did not have proper documents, had regularised their work permits and completed other legalities.

“The majority of Indians corrected their documents. It is said that a few migrants did not apply for legal status. They will face consequences if caught by the authorities,” he said.

A group of returnees told IPS that unskilled workers, part-time office workers and school teachers have been particularly badly hit by the Nitaqat rule.

Related IPS ArticlesReverse Migration Haunts Kerala
A Migration Story Comes Full Circle
Saudi Arabia Arrests Thousands of Illegal Migrant Workers

Sharafudeen, who hails from Malappuram, said teachers without proper documents have been granted a reprieve by the Ministry of Education. “But many small shops and restaurants, which used to regularly hire workers without documents, have been closed throughout the Kingdom.”

Labour inspectors swooped down on thousands of illegal workers in a series of raids across the Kingdom after the amnesty period for expatriates to legalise their work status expired.

Shameem Ahmed, general manager of the Thiruvananthapuram-based Overseas Development and Employment Promotion Consultants, quoted Indian government officials in Riyadh to say that many workers were unwilling to go back to India as they were wary of being unemployed and increasing the financial burden on their families.

“Many workers have not been reporting for work for fear of arrest and deportation. Numerous construction companies that were largely dependent on the illegal workforce have suspended their projects altogether. Housing unit prices are set to increase dramatically due to the shortage of workers,” said Shameem Ahmed.

According to the World Bank, India is the top beneficiary of remittances from Saudi Arabia with 8.4 billion dollars received in 2012. But many of the people behind those remittances now find that life has changed – for the worse.

[gunjur]

Apologies if already posted on brf.

Saudi doublespeak hits India’s core interests

The AFP just reported quoting Saudi sources that Riyadh is in talks with Islamabad “to provide anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets to Syrian rebels to try to tip the balance of the war to overthrow [Syrian] President Bashar al-Assad.”
Saudi Arabia is dealing a terrible blow to regional security by engaging Pakistan (’subcontracting’ might be the right word) in its jihadi enterprise in Syria.

Indeed, Pakistan is terribly unwise to get involved in the Saudi-Iranian, US-Russian proxy war or to dabble in the business of ‘jihad’ all over again when its own house is on fire.
And the most appalling thing is that the Barack Obama administration without whose concurrence King Abdullah won’t venture into this mad adventure, is being plainly diabolical.

WaPo’s David Ignatius disclosed two days ago that the CIA and the Saudi intelligence put their heads together recently in Washington to rev up the ‘jihad’ in Syria by supplying more sophisticated weapons to the rebels.

Of course, Delhi needs to be extremely watchful. Its naivete is incredible in underestimating the robustness of the Saudi-Pakistani fraternal ties. What an irony that Defence Minister A. K. Antony was persuaded to visit Riyadh to encourage the Saudis to invest in co-production in the Indian defence industry and to boost and give verve to ml-to-mil ties — and, lo and behold, within two years Riyadh prefers to strengthen Pakistan’s defence industry.

Why such willing suspension of disbelief on our part when it comes to Saudi Arabia? Unfortunately, the heart of the matter is that our domestic politics has crept into this template of our Gulf policy.

The plain truth is that the petrodollar oligarchies are exercising a larger-than-life influence on our corrupt political class. Partly at least, this accounts for the calibrated policy to gradually atrophy India’s relations with Shi’ite Iran in the recent years.

Hopefully, some balance will be restored under a BJP government.
In immediate terms, Salman is due to arrive in Delhi on a three-day visit on Wednesday. We should ascertain the details regarding his move to draw on Pakistani expertise in ‘jihad’ (a number of Pakistani ‘jihadis are are already fighting in Syria and Pakistan is also reportedly training the ‘jihadis’ recruited from other countries by Saudi intelligence for the war in Syria.)
The point is, Saudi Arabia has a gory record of being responsible for the induction of the forefathers of the al-Qaeda in this region during the 1980s. When the war in Syria gets over, will Saudi Arabia rehabilitate these battle-hardened Pakistani jihadis in Riyadh or Jeddah? This is a serious question.

For far too long, India has looked away from the harsh reality that Saudi Arabia is a state sponsoring terrorism, which uses ‘jihad’ as an instrument of policy to perpetrate terrorist acts in foreign countries. Delhi should speak up — unless it has lost its spine and Muslim politics in India trumps national security interests.

Make no mistake that Pakistan is immensely experienced in demanding and extracting its pound of flesh for such highly professional services rendered in the ‘jihad’ in Syria.
In the prevailing regional milieu, when the US and Saudi dependence deepens in the highly strategic enterprise to overthrow the Assad regime, they lose the moral and political standing to stop the Pakistani project to return the Taliban to power in Kabul. They will only see it as a small price to pay.

[Prem]

Saudi Arabia's growing role in the Maldives
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26668107

Foreign holidaymakers in the Maldives, one of the world's most popular luxury honeymoon destination, were not happy earlier this year when their hotel bookings were cancelled at short notice. The reason was that Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, had booked out three whole islands for nearly a month. It is just one example of the growing role of Saudi investment in the archipelago, a factor which may make the Maldives' government unwilling to ruffle the feathers of Saudi Arabia's rulers. "The well-being of our guests is always our primary concern," a spokeswoman for the Anantara resorts told the British newspaper, the Daily Mail, which reported that some tourists were angry at being moved to make way for the Saudi prince.Prince Salman, who is also Saudi Arabia's defence minister, was on an official business visit at the invitation of Maldives President Abdulla Yameen, who was elected in November after two years of political turmoil.
This reflects growing co-operation between the two countries. Saudi Arabia has already promised the Maldives a five-year soft loan facility of $300m (£181m), pledged last year when the country's previous president visited Riyadh. The Maldives currently has a yawning fiscal deficit averaging 14% of GDP over the past five years, according to the Asian Development Bank. Air links are opening, with Maldivian carriers set to fly to Saudi Arabia for the first time - and 14 flights a week are envisaged. t the same time, the Saudi property company Best Choice says it is building a family holiday resort worth $100m in the Maldives, which it says will have "world-class facilities". The country is also seeking Saudi partnerships in energy and transport, but the biggest co-operation sector is Islamic affairs. The Saudi prince has pledged to build 10 "world-class" mosques in the archipelago, seven of them this year, while visiting Saudi scholars recently pledged a grant of $100,000 for Islamic education. They also announced 50 scholarships for students to study in Saudi Arabia, though the response is said to be sluggish. Like Saudi Arabia, the Maldives is dominated by Sunni Islam. And Mr Yameen, the half-brother of the former autocratic president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, has laid stress on religious conservatism.Yet the country has also come under criticism internationally for other issues. The Maldives now has a $300m loan from Saudi Arabia No such criticism comes from Riyadh, whose cash is being sought to sustain the large civil service. Mr Yameen's government has tightened up laws against permitting other religions and is considering a ban on importing kosher food. In seeking Saudi investments, however, the Maldives cannot afford to alienate too many tourists as tourism remains by far the archipelago's biggest earner. While the top resorts are owned or managed by international brands such as the US-based Hyatt or the French Club Med, it is China that is delivering more and more of the tourists.

[ramana]

If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.

[chetak]

If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.

Why not, sirji??

Would not their dependence on the pakis increase leading to more paisa for and greater activism by the pakis to garner international support via the saudis. They may even push out Indian, asian labor and replace it with paki labor to make headway locally in pindi??

our threat if anything may increase.

[RamaY]

If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.

Why not, sirji??

Would not their dependence on the pakis increase leading to more paisa for and greater activism by the pakis to garner international support via the saudis. They may even push out Indian, asian labor and replace it with paki labor to make headway locally in pindi??

our threat if anything may increase.

Arabians will never replace Indians with Pakis. Indians are there to protect Saudis from Pakis.
Think what happens to Arabia when 5-10m pakis turn up there.

[schinnas]

If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.

Why not, sirji??

Would not their dependence on the pakis increase leading to more paisa for and greater activism by the pakis to garner international support via the saudis. They may even push out Indian, asian labor and replace it with paki labor to make headway locally in pindi??

our threat if anything may increase.

Saudi needs India to buy its oil. China has increasing amount of oil reserves and US with shale oil will be self sufficient. India is the largest potential consumer of Saudi oil. There is a reason Saudis are not overly anti-India. They cannot afford to as it will send India to IRan's camp and cause even more trouble to Saudis.

[A_Gupta]

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the ... oil-sales/

Ships carrying oil from Mexico docked in South Korea this year for the first time in more than two decades as the global fight for market share intensifies.

Latin American producers are providing increasing amounts of heavy crude to bargain-hungry Asian refiners in a challenge to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter and the region’s dominant supplier.

“By diversifying, more Asian refiners will be able to reduce the clout that Saudi Arabia has on the market,” said Suresh Sivanandam, a refining and chemical analyst with Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in Singapore. “They will be getting more bargaining power for sure.”

The U.S., enjoying a surge of light oil from shale formations, has raised imports of heavy grades from Canada, displacing crude from nations such as Mexico and Venezuela. That’s boosting South American deliveries to Asia even after Saudi Arabia cut prices for March oil sales to the region, its largest market, to the lowest in at least 14 years.

The shale boom also has transformed the flow of oil to Asia. South Korea received its first shipment of Alaskan crude in at least eight years as output from Texas and North Dakota displaces oil that fed U.S. refineries for years. The country was one of the first to receive a cargo of the ultralight U.S. crude known as condensate after export rules were eased.

[chetak]

{quote="ramana"}If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.{/quote}

Why not, sirji??

Would not their dependence on the pakis increase leading to more paisa for and greater activism by the pakis to garner international support via the saudis. They may even push out Indian, asian labor and replace it with paki labor to make headway locally in pindi??

our threat if anything may increase.

Saudi needs India to buy its oil. China has increasing amount of oil reserves and US with shale oil will be self sufficient. India is the largest potential consumer of Saudi oil. There is a reason Saudis are not overly anti-India. They cannot afford to as it will send India to IRan's camp and cause even more trouble to Saudis.

If we indeed have such a hold on the saudis. saudi crude is generally sweet while iran crude is sourish and very difficult to refine. india is already buying a lot of cheaper than saudi, iran crude because of reliance which has one of the few refineries in the world setup to efficiently handle iran crude also.

[chetak]

{quote="ramana"}If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.{/quote}

Why not, sirji??

Would not their dependence on the pakis increase leading to more paisa for and greater activism by the pakis to garner international support via the saudis. They may even push out Indian, asian labor and replace it with paki labor to make headway locally in pindi??

our threat if anything may increase.

Arabians will never replace Indians with Pakis. Indians are there to protect Saudis from Pakis.
Think what happens to Arabia when 5-10m pakis turn up there.

the real reason is that paki workforce is highly politicized while the Indian workforce has historically and always remained neutral. The pakis are well capable of extracting their pound of flesh and goading the saudis to let in more pakis which means that Indians would be replaced.

[abhischekcc]

There is another reason for that.

Arab countries have high restrictions on non-Arabs working in their countries. They have to keep expats in highly contained circumstances. This poses problems when the expats are muslims, as they can ask for arab girls in marriage, and thus gain property/residential rights, etc.

Since Hindus will never be able to ask for Arab girls' in marriage, Arab men feel secure with Indians. Add to that that Hindus make good workers and are law abiding.

PS
Pakis are the second most detested community in Arab countries after Egyptians, as per my observation.

[Philip]

The new Saudi monarch is a hothead and wahaabi fundoo.He is trying to bring together a Sunni conglomerate of like-minded "despot-racies" to exterminate Shiite Islam across the Islamic world. In non_Islamic nations with a significant presence of Muslims,the Saudis are liberally funding any Islamic entity/movement that espouses radicalism. Worse still for India,it is estimatesd by western intel sources that the Saudis have bankrolled the Paki N-programme by "60%" of the cost! Along with Chinese input,both Pak and Saudi in effect are nuclear weapons powers,with the Pakis supplying the Saudis with the warheads for their Chinese missiles.Thus the axis of evil, Saudi-A,Pak and China,have a huge detrimental effect upon India's security and we should factor in the MEast support from the Saudis and other Sunni monarchies along with that of China in any future spat with Pak,China or both.

What India should tell the Saudis in no uncertain terms that any Paki N-misadventure upon Indian soil will automatically see the Saudi nation turned into a radioactive wasteland unfit even for camel drivers to inhabit!

They should also tell them to stay out of the Maldives and Indian backyard or face India support for Shiite Iran and anti-Saudi forces anywhere on the globe.We do not need Saudi oil and should instead of kowtowing to Washington,buy as much of cheap Iranian oil and fill our strat. reserve and refineries to the brim when the going is good.

[RajeshA]

Cross-posting

I think it is time for MAD to do some tactical aggression on Pakistan. Put pressure on Pakistan, be it on the LoC, or on the sea, for example for kidnapping our fishermen. Sink a Paki naval ship or two.

Make it known to the Saudis-Emiratis-Qataris that if they want their Paki mercenary force for Yemen, they would have to pay India more than they pay those mercenaries. Take a steep price.

Secondly if Pakistan goes into Yemen, India should see to it, that all those Pakis meet their Keema-Pressers as soon as possible with maximum publicity. India should help Houthis with some form of SAM, be it Akash or something else. After all if the Houthis can hold back the Sunni onslaught, then that would be excellent publicity for our weapon systems, and would let the Sunnis know that they can't ignore India.

We need to be in this war, without dragging Republic of India's good name too much into it. This is where the need for some mercenary force or proxies shows up!

I think a Zaidi nation (Shi'a but a little different) at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula would be excellent for India and keeping Saudis in check! We need some way of putting direct pressure on them as well.

[ramana]

Agnitmitra, Its time to make a taxonomy of Shia groups. Looks like Zaidis are a threat to Saudis as they are Fivers closer to Ali.
RajeshA, We need to make TSP commit and then watch the fun.


Philip, I wish folks read the nuke doctrine. India will retaliate against those who strike and their allies.

KSA is openly claiming to be an ally of TSP.
So it is already covered.

[member_28722]

It's laughable to read all the nationalistic theories being posted, when the cold hard facts are staring in everyone's faces
1. Saudi needs us for oil
2. We need Saudi for oil and the massive remuneration that comes from gulf countties
This is not going to change for next 40 years unless smart car sales explode by 500%

[RajeshA]

It's laughable to read all the nationalistic theories being posted, when the cold hard facts are staring in everyone's faces
1. Saudi needs us for oil
2. We need Saudi for oil and the massive remuneration that comes from gulf countties
This is not going to change for next 40 years unless smart car sales explode by 500%

Unless the Saudis lose control over Eastern Province, which has lots of Shia!

[member_28722]

Not gonna happen. Shias and Sunnis have well documented history of fighting each other. If it had to happen in Saudi it would have happened long time ago

[ramana]

Since the Safavids took over Persia, its the Iranians who dominated Shias. However if the Houthis/Zaidids take over Yemen its Arab Shias who are kin folk of Nejd Shias in KSA.

So there is more to it.

[RamaY]

Saudi Arabia should be brought back under (the umbrella of) an Asian Power. Thier choices are

Jewish Israel
SHIA Iran
Hindu India
Confuscious/Communist/Buddhist China
Orthodox Christian Russia
Sunni Pakistan

[Prem]

Cross-posting
Make it known to the Saudis-Emiratis-Qataris that if they want their Paki mercenary force for Yemen, they would have to pay India more than they pay those mercenaries. Take a steep price.
Secondly if Pakistan goes into Yemen, India should see to it, that all those Pakis meet their Keema-Pressers as soon as possible with maximum publicity. India should help Houthis with some form of SAM, be it Akash or something else. After all if the Houthis can hold back the Sunni onslaught, then that would be excellent publicity for our weapon systems, and would let the Sunnis know that they can't ignore India.

Price need to be extracted from both side . This is the right time to talk to Balochi freedom fighter and ask Iran to Cooperate with India on this. Houthi speciality is not in making Keema but slice open the ribs with deep cut starting from gut. Big numbers of big Paki Tummies are gonna be carved in the shape of Lotus Petals blooming in desert as food for sand scorpions.

[akashganga]

What India should tell the Saudis in no uncertain terms that any Paki N-misadventure upon Indian soil will automatically see the Saudi nation turned into a radioactive wasteland unfit even for camel drivers to inhabit!

Many years ago I read about a US politician threatening the saudis the same way. I am not able to recall who he was.

[KJo]

Saudi Arabia should be brought back under (the umbrella of) an Asian Power. Thier choices are

Jewish Israel
SHIA Iran
Hindu India
Confuscious/Communist/Buddhist China
Orthodox Christian Russia
Sunni Pakistan

RamaYji, let's get Bharat into the umbrella of Hindu India first. We have failed in that all these years.

[member_28860]

akashganga wrote :
Many years ago I read about a US politician threatening the saudis the same way. I am not able to recall who he was.

Tom Tancredo. He advocated bombing Mecca and Medina in response to any future terrorist attack on the USA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tancredo

[Peregrine]

Saudi Arabia Risks Quagmire in Yemen Campaign

For almost a week now, fighter jets from a coalition of Sunni Arab militaries have been bombarding military installations across Yemen as part of a Saudi-led campaign to dislodge the Houthis, a religious revivalist movement for the Zaydi form of Shiite Islam largely unique to northern Yemen that has now become a fearsome militia.

Yet even as Operation Resolute Storm, as the Saudis have dubbed the campaign, has intensified, the Houthis have continued to push on into the south of the country. The group’s spokesmen have even threatened to launch a campaign in Saudi Arabia, which shares a 1,100-mile border with Yemen.

With the Houthis unlikely to capitulate in the near future, Riyadh and Cairo—also a key player in the coalition—have publicly mulled putting boots on the ground in the Arab world’s poorest country in order to reinstate the beleaguered Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi as president. Doing so could well mean that the Saudis and their partners find themselves facing the same kind of challenges the U.S. faced in 2003 after invading Iraq, disbanding the national army and purging government institutions.

Even if a Saudi-led ground campaign manages to beat the Houthis, the coalition will find itself, like the U.S. in Iraq, occupying a country with no army, a collapsed economy and no state institutions to speak of, while battling multiple insurgencies against the Houthis and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Riyadh and Hadi have effectively vetoed the idea of holding peace talks with the Houthis, and it is unlikely that they will be better placed to come to a rapprochement after a bloody war. The lesson from Iraq is a harsh one, and should be considered before the coalition starts putting boots on the ground.

Cheers

[Philip]

If the Iran N-deal survives the next few months ,when the Saudis,Israelis,and Sunni states do everything to sabotage it,If Iranian oil will become available to India as it was before,when it was our second largest supplier,our need for Saudi oil will dramatically reduce.Cheap Russian oil and gas is also available ,as much as we want. One has to study pipeline politics to see which other nations will be able to provide India with alternative supplies,but nations like Venezuela,etc. would certainly love orders esp. in a time of declining prices. India should seize the day and build up massive strat. stocks as the US has done for decades.For this we need to build up strat. reserve ug depots at various places across the country,safe from enemy attack. At the same time we must pursue our own N-tech route designed by Dr.Homi B to insulateourselves from dependence upon firang suppliers and expand substantially renewable energy projects with grants and subsidies,so that the pvt. sector can invest freely and profitably from them.

France has just enacted a law that all rooftops must have solar panels or greenery atop! When will we do the same?

[ramana]

X-Post. Thanks menon s

King Salman is 80, and reportedly suffers from Alzheimers, the next in line is Prince Muqrim, who is 69. Muqrim's mother was a Yemeni Concubine and not a full fledged Saudi Princess! And there ends the line of the 45 sons of Ibn Saud. The next is a hundred or so grandsons!!!!

Wont the Suderis rebel and launch a palace coup?

[RajeshA]

Now that the Houthis are moving, Saudis and other Sheikhs may feel some tremors.

It is absolutely in the interests of other Sunni states, including Turkey and even Pakistan and Egypt to see Saudis weaken, so that other Sunnis can get more influence in the sweepstakes. Everyone dreams of becoming a Khalifah.

There is a lot of Gulf money floating around in West. Question is, do the Saudis think that their money is safe or would it all be digested by the West, once the Saudi grip on power declines.

Saudis and other Sheikhs would have to diversify their investments and assets. Me think our PM may even be thinking like a bania, sensing from the last conversation between him and King Salman!

[RamaY]

There is a lot of Gulf money floating around in West. Question is, do the Saudis think that their money is safe or would it all be digested by the West, once the Saudi grip on power declines.

We have a saying "Rajula sommu Raalla paalu" (Wealth of kings/emperors eventually reaches rocks/underground); meaning the wealth doesnt help the kings when they need.

Don't remember where I read, but west (especially UK &US) mastered this art. Gaddafi is recent case; I am sure Iran too would loose the frozen accounts. Saudi bank accounts have to be frozen on one or the other account...

[ramana]

The three best Sunni armies from North Africa to Indus are:Egypt, Turkey and TSPA.

KSA is trying to get them committed to Yemen.

Egypt has defacto weaseled out by saying hey need to send a large contingent. Takes time....

Turkey and TSP are in coordinated moves to make KSA realize their utility.

For India best option is to enable TSP to commit to Yemen.

TSP will try to not commit in a large way.

Lets see how it pans out.

[Prem]

The three best Sunni armies from North Africa to Indus are:Egypt, Turkey and TSPA.

For India best option is to enable TSP to commit to Yemen.TSP will try to not commit in a large way.
Lets see how it pans out.

TSP in Yemen will make sure Persian and Indian Oven is fired up to make Seenkh Kabab of paki Shabab to do Chukta Hisab . Paki will go regardless or their claim on Ummah's Chumma will wiped out.Lets see if Ghani bring any good news to Delhi next week.

[ramana]

X-Post...

I wonder what KSA means by this curious statement and more statements like this:

A Saudi Defense Ministry statement quoted by the country’s news agencies said that the campaign, called Operation Decisive Storm, had achieved its objectives. But it was unclear exactly how much the airstrikes had advanced Saudi Arabia’s stated goal of helping restore a Yemeni government that collapsed many weeks ago as Houthi rebels took over the country’s capital, Sana. Analysts said the announcement could possibly clear the way for a different type of military intervention.

What objectives have they achieved? What lessons have their learnt?

I think they have got one thing done: Ensured that Aden hasn't fallen to Houthis. [But counter qn: But what is the guarantee that Houthis will not retry their chance again?]

I think Saudi has learnt a couple of important lessons:

a. Don't trust Pakisatan. Now with a tighter wembrace of Cheenis, even Americans will be extremely embarrassed I presume. The way China swooped in and gave 46bn of bribe money to become their client state will have shocked almost everyone who is viewing. Whats more interesting: they have kept the details about IP pipeline away from public but I do believe that they will work on it too - so some secret deal there? [I tried checking if the Gwadar - China LNG / oil pipeline is a diff name for it but the routes seem different beyond a point. Plan to check this later again]

b. GCC is pretty much on its own unless its a serious case of territorial integrity etc etc - KSA will have been shocked and trying to pull an either or trick with Pakistan has boomeranged this time around even with their own man in the helm. [Its also assumed that Nawaz (and the entire parliament) had the blessings of Raheel Sharif too when they made an unanimous decision]. This will cause lots of jolts to the Sunni regime.

c. KSA has understood that all their freshly painted toys wont do much in terms of FP, gaining territory enforcing control etc etc unless they actually have smart "idiots" who could use them. They needlessly wasted some 2 f-16's in the oceans and the pilots ejected out to be saved by the US... and if its to be believed, they have got pvt "learning" / debriefing / speaking out the mind sessions from the US / Egyptians. They just don't look like a good military and they have unfortunately exposed themselves to be even bigger idiots that what the world thought of them. And the world didn't have a good impression of them in the first place

d. KSA will know the limits of money in guiding of their FP. With a pet poodle like Pak moving out and trying to make out on his own with the enemy German Shepherd, the owner predictably is angry. If the poodle can, who cant / wont?

I personally think the KSA idiots have come off significantly worse than where whey were about 4 weeks back. And mercifully, the US / China or whoever have put them away from the battle field. I seriously see nothing that they have gained in this incredibly stupid battle.

And all said, they have destroyed more homes and stuff in the process. Yemen's battle was predom about scarce resources, sharing of them equitably, issues around corruption, and about Saleh vs Hadi and how people feel cheated etc etc. With more destruction of even basic supplies, the KSA has added a big oil well full of oil into the burning fire and have prolonged the battle and made it look even messier and got the whole world to get upset and even lose the moral aspect of this war.

I don't think Salman has learnt the lessons yet and his son might not get it in this lifebirth, if the current situation is anything to go by.

[Vipul]

Famous, liberal Saudi Arabian columnist Khalaf Al-Harbi calls India the most tolerant nation in the world.

Those who claim that India is becoming an intolerant nation must read this. Khalaf Al-Harbi is a liberal columnist and a thinker from Saudi Arabia. His liberal views and objective columns on various issues are a big hit and widely discussed across the world.

In his latest column in 'Saudi Gazette', he heaps praises over India describing it as the most tolerant nation on the earth. In his column titled 'India - A country that rides elephants', Khalaf Al Harbi writes: "In India, there are more than 100 religions and more than 100 languages. Yet, the people live in peace and harmony. They have all joined hands to build a strong nation that can produce everything from a sewing needle to the rocket which is preparing to go to Mars. I must say that I feel a bit jealous because I come from a part of the world which has one religion and one language and yet there is killing everywhere. No matter how the world speaks about tolerance, India remains the oldest and most important school to teach tolerance and peaceful co-existence regardless of the religious, social, political or ethnical differences."

He goes on to state that the stereotypical picture of India in the minds of many is linked to poverty and backwardness which is a totally false picture which has nothing to do with reality.

In his latest column in 'Saudi Gazette', he heaps praises over India describing it as the most tolerant nation on the earth.Al-Harbi adds that it is a picture which was created by our extreme judgment of things. When we were poor before the era of oil, the picture of India in our minds was linked to richness and civilization but immediately after our financial conditions improved, we converted India's picture to one of poverty and backwardness.

If we had any sort of wisdom, we would never have been occupied by India's richness or poverty. Rather, we would have been impressed by India's immense ability to contain and respect the conflicting ideologies and thoughts so that people would flood the streets without any feeling of fear or anxiety.

If we took all the Arabs and placed them in India as part of a grand experiment, they would not make up any recognizable majority. They would, instead, dissolve in a fearless human ocean. Their nationalistic trends and sectarian extremism would also dissolve with them and they would realize that nothing in the world can justify the killing of their brothers and sisters.

He also tries to tell the Arab world that diversity and co-existence of thoughts and beliefs are in the DNA of Indian culture. He writes, "India is one of the largest and oldest democracies in the world. It had never known huge differences in religions or races. The country does not disdain its poor people nor hate its rich citizens. It is a nation which is proud of Gandhi and the British colonialists at the same time."

"The Indian people are distinguished in many ways. They are great people. Nobody can deny this fact except the envious or the ungrateful."
"The only problem with the hypothetical trip of the Arabs to India is that they may contaminate the Indians and remind them of their religious and ethnical differences. The Arabs may be able to convince the Indians that their religious and racial disparities may be enough of reason to kill each other."

[Prem]

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/forme ... 51841.html
Former Indian president likely to visit Kingdom
( Hope they do not insult him by trying to bribe again)

Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, a distinguished scientist, is expected to visit Saudi Arabia shortly to meet with outstanding Indian students and teachers in Jeddah, Riyadh and Dammam.
Mohamed Ashraf, president of the Muslim Educational Society’s (MES), Jeddah chapter, announced this and said: “We have been trying to bring Abdul Kalam to Jeddah to grace our awards ceremony following the MES-Al-Abeer Educity ESEL talent hunt competition, to inspire the winners.”Kalam, who due to certain protocol issues, could not come earlier “would like to interact with the Indian student community representing all schools in the Kingdom and teachers. Such programs will be arranged in the cities of Jeddah, Dammam and Riyadh with the support and coordination of the Indian Consulate and Embassy and Al-Abeer,” he said.The 21 finalists of the competition, Ashraf said, have read Kalam’s book entitled ‘Beyond 2020, A Vision For Tomorrow’s India,’ which is considered as a vision for the new millennium and presents a road map for India to become one of the top five economic powers in the world by 2020.Indian Consul General B.S. Mubarak said students must obtain life skills and leadership qualities in addition to academic excellence to become successful. During the awards ceremony at the function, Mubarak backed the plan to bring Kalam. He congratulated the winners of the MES Al-Abeer Educity ESEL competition, which was held in four stages over the past months with the support of Indian schools.

[Rony]

WikiLeaks Cables Show a Saudi Obsession With Iran

The documents indicate an extensive apparatus inside the Saudi government dedicated to missionary activity that brings in officials from the Foreign, Interior and Islamic Affairs Ministries; the intelligence service; and the office of the king.

Recent initiatives have included putting foreign preachers on the Saudi payroll; building mosques, schools and study centers; and undermining foreign officials and news media deemed threatening to the kingdom’s agenda.

At times, the king got involved, ordering an Iranian television station off the air or granting $1 million to an Islamic association in India.

The Foreign Ministry relayed funding requests to officials in Riyadh; the Interior Ministry and the intelligence agency sometimes vetted potential recipients; the Saudi-supported Muslim World League helped coordinate strategy; and Saudi diplomats across the globe oversaw projects. Together, these officials identified sympathetic Muslim leaders and associations abroad, distributed funds and religious literature produced in Saudi Arabia, trained preachers and gave them salaries to work in their own countries.

One example of this is Sheikh Suhaib Hasan, an Indian Islamic scholar who was educated in Saudi Arabia and worked for the kingdom for four decades in Kenya and in Britain, where he helped found the Islamic Sharia Council, according to a cable from the Saudi Embassy in London whose contents were verified by his son, Mr. Hassan of the Quilliam Foundation.

Some of the costliest projects were in India, which Saudi Arabia sees as a sectarian battleground.

Cables indicated that $266,000 had been granted to an Islamic association to open a nursing college; $133,000 had been used for an Islamic conference; and another grant went to a vocational training center for girls.

King Abdullah, who died in January, signed off on a $1 million gift to the Khaja Education Society, and a smaller amount went to a medical college run by Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen.

A member of first group, Janab Moazam, confirmed that it had been granted the money and said that half had already been delivered. An official from the second group, Abdullah Koya Madani, confirmed that the group had received Saudi funding.

[ldev]

Indian Air Force fighter contingent makes maiden visit to Saudi Arabia

JEDDAH: India opened new chapter in defense ties with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the maiden visit of a delegation of Indian Air Force there.

The fighter aircraft delegation was returning home from the United Kingdom where it had participated a joint exercise called the Indradhanush (rainbow).

The flying contingent of the Indian Air Force (IAF) that landed at the King Fahad airbase in Taif near Jeddah consists of 110 IAF officers and airmen onboard Sukhoi 30MKI fighter aircraft, C-17 Globe Masters, C-130 Super Hercules and IL-78 aircraft, according to a statement issued by Indian consulate in Jeddah. Indian embassy charge d'affaires Hemant Kotalwar, along with deputy consul-general of India Noor Rahman Shaikh and IAF wing commander S. Joardar, while addressing a press conference, called the visit significant, and yet another feature that is set to give the Indo-Saudi relations a boost as this was the first time that an Indian fighter aircraft landed in Saudi Arabia on a goodwill visit.

[Uttam]

I really hope this happens sooner rather later. A lot world problems (and Indian problems) will be solved if illicit petrodollars from Saudis stop funding terrorist activity directly or indirectly.

Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles