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Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
rajithn
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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby rajithn » 21 Sep 2015 10:20

^^ Pretty old video of a Bangladeshi baladiya (the municipality, as it is called) worker getting trashed by a Saudi.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Singha » 21 Sep 2015 15:42

there is another old one of a BD worker being slapped and thrashed inside a moving car.
why in a car? perhaps its their religious police picked him up from somewhere. perhaps the head of household would not tolerate it, so the brat sons and his friends took him for a ride and bashed him out of sight. maybe he was a driver in some transport co.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC5B3dHSydI

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Austin » 21 Sep 2015 17:16

Atrocities in Saudi is very common and most of it goes unreported , specially when you work for local companies and not known MNC there.

My own cousin brother had to leave Saudi with his 2 months salary unpaid and another 2 months deposited earlier as security ( total 4 month ) even though he was working as Senior Position in a big hotel there but owned by Saudi citizen and in capital Riyadh just a year back.

It seems there is nothing much you can do as your employer takes your passport and you cant complain to any one there , its even dangerous to walk on the road as the local saudis are known to be very aggressive and can steal or worse kill you over petty issue and there is nothing you can do about it.

He really had to do lot of effort and make fake wedding card etc just to get his passport and get out of that country leaving a big sum of amount but he said its worth it

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby arun » 26 Sep 2015 09:45

X Posted from the “Iran News and Discussions” thread.

In aftermath of the stampede that killed 717 (Clicky) , Mohammadden Cleric from the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani is reported by AFP as saying “"Saudi Arabia is incapable of organising the pilgrimage" and “"The running of the hajj must be handed over to (other) Islamic states".

I agree with the Iranian Ayatollah that Saudi Arabia is incapable of running the Hajj and responsibility must pass to a committee of other nationalities with additional proviso of democratic representation on the basis of Mohammadden population size. India off course will necessarily have to be represented on the committee as a country having a Mohammadden population that is among the largest in the world. Further our “Non-Aligned” status between Shia and Sunni should be helpful.

Our Government must support Iran and other like minded countries with large Mohammadden populations and press for the internationalisation of managing Mohammadden Pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina. Never mind the gnashing of teeth by the Al-Saud family who have monopolised the patrimony of what belongs to the whole Mohammadden world for themselves.

Iran calls Saudi unfit to manage hajj after disaster

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Philip » 28 Sep 2015 11:36

The root cause of Islamic terror.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the ... 69531.html
The evil empire of Saudi Arabia is the West’s real enemy
Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain: planners to financiers, cadres to foot soldiers, ideologists to cheerleaders

YASMIN ALIBHAI-BROWN
Sunday 27 September 2015

The Clock Tower and the Grand Mosque in the Saudi holy city of Mecca, September 25, 2015 MOHAMMED AL-SHAIKH/AFP/Getty Images

Iran is seriously mistrusted by Israel and America. North Korea protects its nuclear secrets and is ruled by an erratic, vicious man. Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions alarm democratic nations. The newest peril, Isis, the wild child of Islamists, has shocked the whole world. But top of this list should be Saudi Arabia – degenerate, malignant, pitiless, powerful and as dangerous as any of those listed above.

The state systematically transmits its sick form of Islam across the globe, instigates and funds hatreds, while crushing human freedoms and aspiration. But the West genuflects to its rulers. Last week Saudi Arabia was appointed chair of the UN Human Rights Council, a choice welcomed by Washington. Mark Toner, a spokesperson for the State Department, said: “We talk about human rights concerns with them. As to this leadership role, we hope that it is an occasion for them to look into human rights around the world and also within their own borders.”
Read more
US 'welcomes' UN putting Saudi Arabia in charge of human rights panel

The jaw simply drops. Saudi Arabia executes one person every two days. Ali Mohammed al-Nimr is soon to be beheaded then crucified for taking part in pro-democracy protests during the Arab Spring. He was a teenager then. Raif Badawi, a blogger who dared to call for democracy, was sentenced to 10 years and 1,000 lashes. Last week, 769 faithful Muslim believers were killed in Mecca where they had gone on the Hajj. Initially, the rulers said it was “God’s will” and then they blamed the dead. Mecca was once a place of simplicity and spirituality. Today the avaricious Saudis have bulldozed historical sites and turned it into the Las Vegas of Islam – with hotels, skyscrapers and malls to spend, spend, spend. The poor can no longer afford to go there. Numbers should be controlled to ensure safety – but that would be ruinous for profits. Ziauddin Sardar’s poignant book Mecca: The Sacred City, describes the desecration of Islam’s holiest site.

Even more seriously, the pernicious Saudi influence is spreading fast and freely. King Salman has offered to build 200 mosques in Germany for recently arrived refugees, many of whom are Muslims. He offered no money for resettlement or basic needs, but Wahhabi mosques, the Trojan horses of the secret Saudi crusade. Several Islamic schools are also sites of Wahhabism, now a global brand. It makes hearts and minds small and suspicious, turns Muslim against Muslim, and undermines modernists.

The late Laurent Murawiec, a French neocon, wrote this in 2002: “The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadres to foot soldiers, from ideologists to cheerleaders.” Murawiec’s politics were odious, but his observations were spot on. Remember that most of the 9/11 killers were Saudi; so was the al-Qaeda hierarchy.
In pictures: Hajj stampede

10 show all

In the 14 years that have followed 9/11, the Saudis have become more aggressive, more determined to win the culture wars. They pour money into Islamist organisations and operations, promote punishing doctrines that subjugate women and children, and damn liberal values and democracy. They are pursuing a cruel bombing campaign in Yemen that has left thousands of civilians dead and many more in dire straits.

So, what does our ruling establishment do to stop the invisible hand of this Satan? Zilch. The Royal Family, successive governments, parliamentarians, a good number of institutions and people with clout collectively suck up to the Saudi ruling clan. I have not seen any incisive TV investigation of this regime. We know it is up to no good, but evidence is suppressed. Some writers have tried to break this conspiracy of obsequiousness. Craig Unger’s book, House of Bush, House of Saud was published in 2004. It established beyond reasonable doubt that Saudi Arabia was the nerve-centre of international terrorism. And that the Bush family was unduly close to the regime. Many of us believed the revelations were even more explosive than those by the journalists Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward, who exposed the lies told by Richard Nixon.
Read more
Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti says authorities not at fault for stampede

This deadly enemy will not be cowed or stopped by Trident. Our leaders know what is going on. So what do they do? They pick on the small people. The Government’s Prevent programme now imposes a duty on educators to watch out for young “radicals” and nip them in the bud. Older dissenters, too. To date, 4,000 young Muslims have been referred for reprogramming. One was three years old. In May, a young Muslim schoolboy talked about “eco-terrorists” and was taken away to be interrogated about whether he supported Isis. Academics, lawyers, doctors and nurses are also expected to become the nation’s spies. Mohammed Umar Farooq, a student at Staffordshire University, was accused last week of being a terrorist because he was reading a book entitled Terrorism Studies in the library.

In the US, 14-year-old Ahmed Mohamed was arrested because he took a home-made clock to school. (Richard Dawkins, these days a manic tweet preacher, questioned whether the clock was part of a “hoax” designed to get Mohamed arrested, before backtracking.) The West, it seems, is free only for some. And to be a Muslim is a crime.

Extremism is a serious problem. Westernised, liberal Muslims do try to influence feverish, hostile young Muslim minds, but we are largely powerless. Our leaders will not confront Saudi Arabia, the source of Islamist brainwashing and infection. They won’t because of oil and the profits made by arms sales. Political cowards and immoral profiteers are the traitors, the real threat to national security, patriotism and cohesion. How do they answer the charge

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 06 Oct 2015 03:20

Talked to an IM who had been to Haj. He has a few points:
- The pilgrims are segregated by nationality.
- The flow is highly regulated.
- Somehow the two pilgrim streams merged right when the Iranian pilgrims were in the lead.
- Lead to stampede where many Iranians were killed.
- And add to that the crane toppled almost near the Grand Mosque.

All this makes him suspicious that KSA- Iran clash was being engineered by interested parties.
(Mis) Fortunately KSA reputation for incompetence is saving the situation.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Virender » 06 Oct 2015 03:56

JE Menon wrote:Consider the dynamic - father in law and son in law violating women, after sending the daughter/wife and daughter/grand daughter out!!!!

Nothing to be amazed at.Most likely case of inbreeding.Must be uncle and Nephew in real relationship.Thankfully they had decency (?) of sending out the womenfolk from home.I think that is not even necessary as per book.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby wig » 09 Oct 2015 00:08

savage Saudi woman cuts off Tamil Nadu maid’s arm. very tragic news
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 279142.cms

Saudi Arabian officials have arrested a Saudi woman who chopped off the arm of a 56-year-old maid from Mungileri village near Katpadi in Tamil Nadu.

Officials with the Indian embassy in Riyadh took up the case with Saudi authorities at the highest level after learning that the employer of Kasthuri Munirathnam severed the maid's right arm after she complained to officials that the family she was working for ill-treated her.

Indian diplomats in Saudi Arabia told TOI on Thursday that the Al-Sahafa police in Riyadh initially investigated the case but, because of the heinous nature of the crime, handed over the probe to the General Intelligence Directorate (Al Mukhabarat Al A'amah), the foremost intelligence agency in the kingdom.

Kasthuri was in a critical condition but has stabilised and doctors are treating her in Kingdom Hospital in Riyadh.

Anil Nautiyal, first secretary (labour) at the Indian embassy in Riyadh, said the mission is pursuing the case with the Saudi Arabian ministry of foreign affairs.

Kasthuri's son Mohan told TOI from Vellore that his mother Kasthuri sustained severe injuries in the attack by the woman of the house, whose name Saudi authorities have withheld.

A video on a social networking site shows Kasthuri in tears as she recalls the brutal attack. "I pleaded with the lady not to harm me but she kicked me, punched me and cut off my arm," she said. "I want to go back home. Please help me."

Mohan, a mason, said his mother left for Saudi Arabia two years ago to support the family, which consists of an ailing husband, three daughters and a son, even though he tried to persuade her against going to that country. Kasthuri first worked for a family in Damam and later moved to the house in Riyadh.

"Her employers did not even allow her to make a telephone call to us," Mohan said. "The few times she managed to call us, she said she was burdened with work."

Nautiyal said the Indian embassy and the Tamil Nadu wing of Indian Social Forum is now taking care of Kasthuri.

The diplomat said Saudi officials were making periodical enquires about the well-being of house maids when they met her on September 29. "She told them that her employers were ill-treating her," he said. "That appears to have provoked the savage attack."

Mohan said the Saudi officials warned his mother's employers not to harass her. "The woman attacked my mother soon after the officials left," he said.

Learning of the attack, the Al-Sahafa police took Kasthuri to hospital and detained her employer.

Mohan appealed to the state government to help bring his mother back to Vellore.

Jisha a nurse from Kerala who is looking after Kasthuri said she had undergone a surgery and was feeling much better now. "We are monitoring her round the clock," she said.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Falijee » 09 Oct 2015 03:15

Saudi Arabia: Employer chops off hand of Tamil Nadu woman for trying to escape torture
A woman from Tamil Nadu -- working in a Saudi household as a domestic help -- has been hospitalised in Riyadh in a critical condition after her right hand was chopped off by he employer, as per TV reports.
Kasturi Munirathnam, who has suffered severe injuries on her body and limbs, has been admitted to Kingdom Hospital, Manorama News reported.

She was reportedly burdened with heavy workload and was not even allowed to have telephonic conversation with her relatives in India.

And, as per earlier media reports, this rogue/pariah state was elected to one of the UN Human Rights organization; what a joke !
Currently, the Tamil Nadu wing of Indian Social Forum is taking care of the woman. The Indian embassy officials have met her and extended all support to her.

The Indian Govt is obviously working "behind the scene" to bring some relief to this woman.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby JE Menon » 09 Oct 2015 22:52

The Saudi government is co-operating too, it seems. The criminal in this case will have to be properly prosecuted and sentenced.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby member_23370 » 09 Oct 2015 22:53

How about testing K-15 from Arihant near yemeni waters? It will send another message to saudi like Putin's caspian sea flotilla did a few days ago.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby member_28533 » 09 Oct 2015 22:58

JE Menon wrote:The Saudi government is co-operating too, it seems. The criminal in this case will have to be properly prosecuted and sentenced.


Take 2 arms for one - no blood money.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Singha » 10 Oct 2015 07:25

the saudis it seems have also been violating india govt guidelines. hopefully india will totally stop recruitment of maids for saudis from here...its on the cards..once they reach there, their passports are seized, and they have no physical or legal security, the GOI cannot protect them there . if people still want to go despite all this they are at their own risk

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/i ... 744537.ece

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SanjayC » 10 Oct 2015 08:11

This trend of our women going to Middle East to do menial jobs has to end -- no nurses, no maids, no baby sitters

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby habal » 10 Oct 2015 08:21

those are maids who went a long time back. Since past few years single women are not given emigration clearance to ME for non white coller/nursing visa.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chetak » 10 Oct 2015 08:24

mchilian wrote:
JE Menon wrote:The Saudi government is co-operating too, it seems. The criminal in this case will have to be properly prosecuted and sentenced.


Take 2 arms for one - no blood money.



Very unfortunate but we all know the old and familiar ending.

Blood money will be offered and accepted as per saudi law, keeping in mind the socioeconomic status of the affected Indian lady.

Only one thing remains to be settled, the islamic cost in saudi rials of an Indian lady's arm per sharia.

many bearded saudi mullahs must already be debating this esoteric question eagerly as a case in point of islamic jurisprudence.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Gus » 12 Oct 2015 06:54

Number of Indians dead has risen from single digit in initial report to over a hundred now.

I think actual dead is over few thousands. They are keeping count low intentionally

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SanjayC » 12 Oct 2015 07:10

habal wrote:those are maids who went a long time back. Since past few years single women are not given emigration clearance to ME for non white coller/nursing visa.


This lady whose arm was cut went to Saudi only three months back to work as maid

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby asgkhan » 12 Oct 2015 09:30

https://www.reddit.com/r/exmuslim/comme ... j_2015_as/

This is my story on how I survived Hajj (2015) as an ex-Muslim young woman. Part 1

https://www.reddit.com/r/exmuslim/comme ... j_2015_as/

This is my story on how I survived Hajj (2015) as an ex-Muslim young woman. Part 2

Fascinating.

Urge all readers to go through her thread completely.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Singha » 12 Oct 2015 09:50

sounds like the typical pampered western brat expecting canadian comforts in the desert and filing drain inspector reports. well all serious pilgrimages involve some amount of hardship and sharing time/space with a lot of people.

tough. but thats life.

this type of girl would say exactly the same thing about going to tirupati, haridwar, jerusalem, rome ... anywhere but the mall and nightclub. her conclusions show her mindset. a section of NRI kids are probably also infected with this disgust that causes them to violently reject ANYTHING to do with the culture of their parents.

so while one might think its fun to read such reports, these people will write worse reports on india visit also.

Conclusion
Overall, this whole journey was a huge ****** waste of time and money. The whole place is so dirty and unhygienic, I've gotten sick with food poising twice and the cold a total of 3 times.
The only good that came out of it was that I don't feel the need to always wear makeup in public anymore, and I got a killer hourglass figure lol. Everyday over here was like a military workout. My waist and legs became more toned and slim, my booty got lifted and rounder, and my breasts went up a whole cup size because of the birth control I was taking. Plus I got a sweet tan to go with it.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Paul » 12 Oct 2015 09:57

My childhood before my teens was pretty good, filled love and happy times in general, though occasional beatings/abuse was normal. My dad would sometimes have fits of anger and he'd shout/hit me if I did something he didn't approve of, or if I didn't listen to him. I remember when I was 7, my dad was teaching me how to read the Quran. I found it difficult to pronounce some of the words, as Arabic wasn't our native language. So he gave me a hard punch in the nose, making it bleed, with the blood drops staining the Quran. He quickly helped me clean up afterwards and got me ice. He would go crazy like that sometimes and swing from one extreme mood to the other. Same with my mother, but she rarely abused me physically. Her form of abuse was more mental and emotional. Other than that, my parents were generally very loving, caring, protective and spoiled me,
LOL

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby JE Menon » 12 Oct 2015 12:14

This is from the girl's write up... I find it very interesting (and the chick is quite talented):

Hajj Day 3 - Stampede of Death (September 25, 2015) Everyone woke up for the morning prayer at around 4:00 AM, then we were off to Jamarat to stone the ****** devil. We had to walk 6.3k from Muzdalifa to get there, then walk an additional 7k to our hotel room after we were done.

Everyone had to do it at the same time so the place was jam packed. My feet felt as though they had thorns in them. I hated every ****** minute of it. Especially the heat. It was probably the longest I've ever walked my entire life. We were among a crowd of millions of others going at a snail's pace, plus we had our heavy bags to carry along with us as well. None of the men in our group would let us rest or get water ‘cause they wanted us to finish quickly and eave. This was for our own good because the rush of people kept increasing. They knew that as more and more people gathered inside the platform, there would be risks of stampedes.

And that is exactly what happened after we were done stoning the devil. We heard a blast go off in the far distance behind us. Then there were loud, blood curdling screams and cries of terror as a huge wave of people came rushing inside the platform. There was smoke all around. People were falling over and stacking on top of each other. It was like a domino effect, as people fell, one by one, tripping on the ones in front of them. They had actually been electrocuted from the b;ast, and as they bumped into others, they'd get electrocuted as well. It was traumatizing to witness. I had never seen such a scene in my life.

Later on we found out that the main reason for the stampede was because of Saudi's Prince Salman. He was riding on the road next to the platform, and they had to clear the whole road for him. So the millions of Hajjis were then forced to all gather together inside the platform walkway, and that's how the stampedes broke out. We couldn't stay there to witness what else happened afterwards, as we were trying to get the hell out of there as quickly as possible. The opening of the platform was close so we bolted from there. Our group's men told the women to gather together while the men surrounded us, trying to protect us from the rest of the wild crowd. We were in that formation throughout the whole way until we reached our hotel in Mecca.

As soon as we came back to the hotel we were informed of the stampede incident killing over 2000 people. We were just a few meters away from being caught in it. A few people from our group were missing and their phones didn't work either. We were so worried, but good thing they came back safely. They had decided to take a taxi instead. Another frustrating thing was that we couldn't find the key to our hotel room, and the reception area was empty. So we just sat in front of our room with our luggage, until eventually, one of the hotel staff came and opened the door for us.

Finally we were informed of the qurbani (animal sacrifice) and that meant we could cut our hair, take off our dreadful Ihrams and finally shower with soap!!! After freshening up and getting into clean clothes, we napped for a bit, then ate dinner. We hadn't eaten since last night.

Then we got ready for doing the bitch ass tawaf and sa'ee again.
_______________________________________

Perhaps some power substation blew due to overload or something? Haven't heard anything on that front related to this story yet... Plus reconfirmation about Prince Salman...

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 14 Oct 2015 16:12

Continuing from "Afghanistan News & Discussions" Thread

SSridhar wrote:The relentless pressure on the ill-trained and suspect ANSF is tremendous as the Taliban (actually AQIS) opens another front, in the south this time even as Kunduz is still not taken back from the AQIS.

Gunfights after resurgent Taliban threaten new Afghan city
GHAZNI: Explosions and sporadic gunfire rocked the outskirts of Ghazni today after the Taliban attempted to storm the south-eastern city, as the insurgents tighten their grip across Afghanistan following their lightning capture of another provincial capital.

Afghan forces repelled the brazen assault yesterday, but it rang security alarm bells as the largely rural insurgency threatens large cities for the first time in 14 years.

The violence, which left the streets of Ghazni deserted, follows the Taliban's three-day occupation of northern Kunduz city and other attempts by militants to overrun provincial capitals in the north.

Around 2,000 insurgents attacked Ghazni from several directions yesterday, coming as close as five kilometres to the city, deputy provincial governor Mohammad Ali Ahmadi said.

"But they were quickly pushed back by Afghan forces," Ahmadi told AFP.

"Military reinforcements have arrived from neighbouring provinces to secure the city."

The fighting left the streets of Ghazni largely empty for a second day as many panicked residents tried to flee towards the capital Kabul.

In Kunduz, meanwhile, Afghan forces claim to have wrested back control, with the Taliban today admitting that they had tactically retreated from the main intersections, markets and other government buildings.

Afghan soldiers, backed by Nato special forces, are still combing the city to flush out pockets of insurgents hiding in civilian homes.

The fall of Kunduz on September 28 was a stinging blow to Western-trained Afghan forces, who have largely been fighting on their own since the end of Nato's combat mission in December.

As fighting spreads in neighbouring provinces such as Badakhshan and Takhar, concerns are mounting that the seizure of Kunduz was merely the opening gambit in a new, bolder strategy to tighten the insurgency's grip across northern Afghanistan.

It raised the prospect of a domino effect of big cities falling into the hands of the Taliban for the first time since they were toppled from power in a 2001 US-led invasion.

The militants last week attempted to overrun Maimana, the capital of Faryab province, but were pushed back by Afghan forces with the aid of pro-government militias.


This uptick in violence against Afghan forces is also because of changed equations in the whole region.

Now that Iran is again coming out of the deep-freeze, Pakistan has decided to dump Saudi Arabia and latch on to Iran. The understanding between Iran and Pakistan is that Iran would limit India's reach into Afghanistan and allow Pakistan backed Taliban to take over Afghanistan, and in return Pakistan would change its stance from pro-GCC to pro-Iran, which includes not supporting Saudis anymore in their tussle with the Houthis.

Now Iran is this time agreeable to Pakistan-backed Taliban taking over Afghanistan because the alternative is ISIS setting up their stronghold there. So Iran favors that the groups in power in Afghanistan are those supported by Pakistan rather than those supported by Gulf countries.

It is Iran withdrawing their support to Afghanistan that has changed the equations in Afghanistan and led to a concerted push by the Taliban under a new leadership.

Russia too may not be adverse to trying to keep out ISIS away from its underbelly in Central Asia, and may have accepted Pakistan walking in into Afghanistan.

Equations have changed. Gulf countries have mucho money but may not understand how to make it count!

Only way out for Saudis is to separate Pakistan and Iran and that can be done only by Baluchistan independence.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Paul » 14 Oct 2015 16:32

It does not make sense for US to withdraw its sole aircraft carrier from the persian gulf. This has left the Arabs without any cards to play.

Are the Pakis thinking this thru. There are 10s of millions of Pakis working in these states and they could lose employment when the tide turns.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 14 Oct 2015 16:42

Paul wrote:Are the Pakis thinking this thru. There are 10s of millions of Pakis working in these states and they could lose employment when the tide turns.


I don't think Pakistani leadership really cares about that. Most of the Pakistani elite, I believe, are in UK or prefer US, Canada and other places. Most of those working in the Gulf are the aam abduls.

Also Pakistani leadership may have thought that Saudis would most likely not get rid of their workers, as sending them back would not really dent the leadership but only cause more headlines, which the Pakis can again use to call Saudis as not the right guardians of Islam.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Paul » 14 Oct 2015 16:47

For too long, the Iranian eastern Front has been dormant. The Baloch may see their day coming soon if they play their cards right this time.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby NRao » 14 Oct 2015 17:03

RajeshA,

Assuming this is your thinking.

Very nice.

One of my pet projects is to get the Baluch their independence.

IF I may, I would like to add the following to your analysis: It would need to mean the realignment of the Indo-SA relationship too. In addition Indo-Iran for sure and possibly a few others - Indo-Russia?

What would be the indicators of such a possible realignment? India getting more oil from SA and less from Iran?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Paul » 14 Oct 2015 17:05

Saudis will also demand a Quid pro quo from Russia for giving ISIS details and compromising on Oil prices.

What will Iran do then?

and the Americans may be sitting this round out but sooner or later they will get their act together.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 14 Oct 2015 20:32

NRao ji,

Saudis need to learn a few things, and I think some they already know:

1) Other powerful Sunni countries, will always want their pound of flesh from the Saudis, either overtly as a quid pro quo or covertly as a means to improve their bargaining position viz-a-viz the Saudis. This includes Pakistan, Turkey as well as Egypt. And so they would play with the Iranians as well. There is not really going to be a deep ideological cleavage on Sunni-Shia lines, at least not at this level. So GCC is basically on its own, and can't really count on any Sunni countries outside.

2) GCC are also pawns in UK-USA games and their protection would be more public and diplomatic, but strategically they would move as they seem fit. Moreover they can't really make their hands too dirty in intra-Islamic affairs. US support to Saudis for example for their campaign against Houthis is quite limited. No American soldiers really involved.

3) Saudi have been active operating their Wahhabi factories at full throttle, but the Salafi drones being produced are controllable only to a certain extent. Turks or Egyptians for example can also use these drones to create chaos in Gulf region too. Saudis often subcontract these Salafi production facilities to regional powers like the Pakistani Army, but there is no certainty that the subcontractor may not get other ideas and be tempted by other strategic and tactical goals.

4) Saudi gambit in Iraq with ISIS may not succeed. Turkey wanted to use the cover of ISIS to pound the Kurds, and may not be that taken in with the chaos entering their borders. Russians have moved in with heavy weaponry. Iranians are willing to support Assad and Iraq with manpower. West is of course delighted that the whole region is a powder keg and their arch enemies Russians may someday start getting the blow-back. At least they can keep the Russians pinned down there. But it doesn't really bring the Saudis anything. It is not a clean win for them and they too become vulnerable to blow-back as well as counter-maneuvers from Iranians and Iraqis and Syrians.

5) Basic problem for Saudis is that all pressure on Iran's east is gone, because Pakistanis have decided to change sides. That allows Iranians to concentrate on their West. Iranians cede political space to Pakis in their East, and Pakis give them peace in their East. Afghanistan is the sacrificial lamb. More than that, the Saudis have lost a slave army when Pakistanis decided to change sides. Pakistani Army should have been no more than a slave army for hire at Saudi beck and call. It isn't anymore. The reason is because the Pakistani Army is big enough to have its own ambitions and leeway.

What Saudis need to do is to cut Pakistani Army to size and to have enough leverage over it through its other partners in the region, which can possibly include the Pushtuns/TTP.

The Saudis have played a really bad game of chess/risk.

a) In order to come back in the game, Saudis need to get Baluchistan freed, in order to finish off all Pakistan's notions of grandeur and strategic independence. This would automatically put pressure on Iranian Sistan-Balochistan.

b) Saudis need to have the Pushtuns in their column in order to always keep the pressure on the Pakjabi Army. More importantly Saudis need to partner Afghanistan and not just automatically give support to a Pakistan-controlled Taliban.

c) Saudis also need a new big daddy in the play ground, and that is India - someone who can keep the order.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby panduranghari » 14 Oct 2015 23:33

RajeshA wrote:a) In order to come back in the game, Saudis need to get Baluchistan freed, in order to finish off all Pakistan's notions of grandeur and strategic independence. This would automatically put pressure on Iranian Sistan-Balochistan.

b) Saudis need to have the Pushtuns in their column in order to always keep the pressure on the Pakjabi Army. More importantly Saudis need to partner Afghanistan and not just automatically give support to a Pakistan-controlled Taliban.

c) Saudis also need a new big daddy in the play ground, and that is India - someone who can keep the order.


Nice post RajeshA saar.

I wanted to post this one by Ramana to help understanding.
I think US enabled a Ghilzai to come to power in Afghanistan upending the Durrani monopoly on power since Ahmed Shah Durrani/Abdali.

Talibans are mostly Ghilzai with a few Durranis.

So Ghani will not face or rather will see reduced Taliban ire.

Daud was a Durrani who overthrew his nephew Zahir Shah.

Yes what will Tajiks do? As Uzbegs have been accomodated via Dostum
Tajiks are the more settled Afghans.

*Historically Ghilzais looked to Dilli while Durranis looked to Tehran.


1/ How will Saudis help freedom of Balochistan?
2/ Why will Pushtun side with Saudi? They have to deal with the shitty Taliban who are funded by Saudi. There is enough animosity there.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 15 Oct 2015 13:19

panduranghari wrote:1/ How will Saudis help freedom of Balochistan?
2/ Why will Pushtun side with Saudi? They have to deal with the shitty Taliban who are funded by Saudi. There is enough animosity there.


1) Balochistan:

Pakistanis are dependent on Iranians to limit Indian presence in their soft underbelly - Pushtun region, Afghanistan. That brings Pakistan closer to Iran. If Baluchistan is independent, then India and the rest of the world would get an open access to Central Asia, including Pushtun regions. That means a close Pakistan-Iran axis does not really protect Pakistan from Pushtun revolt. So Pakistanis would not seek comfort in Iran, and would be available as slave soldiers for Saudi Arabia.

So how to achieve this?

Well usually one of the GCC countries takes the initiative and becomes the public face of that initiative. For example, Qatar is where Taliban opened an office for liaison.

Similarly I think a country like Oman has to become the front through which all arms to Balochistan flow, all diplomatic efforts there, where all groups can meet and plan. The rest of the GCC simply have to stand behind Oman. Also one needs somewhere where one can put up training camps.

Secondly one has to improve on the technology and military resources there. Satellite tracking of military movements can help Balochis militia better target Paki Army. India can help here.

If Afghans can throw out the Soviet army, then Balochis too can do the same to Pakistani Army, if they receive training, intelligence, organizational help, diplomatic support, and weapons.

The Gulf countries still haven't punished Pakistan for its cockiness. The only way the Gulf countries would get its slave army back is by putting Pakistanis in their place for once and all, and that requires taking away Baluchistan.

2) Pushtuns:

The Saudis do have their friends in Pakistan - groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba and probably some Pushtun groups as well.

But now that Pakistan has sided with Iran, Pakistani State felt emboldened to do a hit-job on the leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi: Malik Ishaq.

What is needed is that Saudis reorient their groups in Pakistan to go after the Pakistani State and also to turn more Taliban against the Pakistani State as well.

Saudis should know that their primary enemy is not the Shias but Iran, for Iran is their leader. Now Pakistan has become Iranian stooge, so of course the Pakistani State would have to be targeted.

The Saudis have made a big mistake in giving the Pakistanis the leeway to decide whom they support and whom not. As a slave army it is not the Pakistani "aukat" to be able to make its own decisions, especially decisions of treachery towards the custodians of the two holy mosques.

It really is useless to breed a clone army of Salafis if one allows the subcontractors the freedom to use that clone army as and how they choose. The subcontractors need to be cut to size, be made to go on their knees, that means chopping off of legs of Pakistani Army below their knees, that means to take away Baluchistan.

3) Indians:
Finally the Saudis need the Indians to put a dagger to the Pakistani throat, so that Pakis don't really have much of a leeway in deciding whom to serve and whom not to serve.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby NRao » 15 Oct 2015 16:04

RA,

What specifically does all this mean for India (in your opinion)?

And, what would that (impact on India) mean for "realignment", not just regional, but global.

Any thoughts (perhaps for another thread)?

Thx in adv.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 15 Oct 2015 16:21

NRao wrote:RA,

What specifically does all this mean for India (in your opinion)?

And, what would that (impact on India) mean for "realignment", not just regional, but global.

Any thoughts (perhaps for another thread)?

Thx in adv.



1) It means that it is in the interest of both Saudi Arabia and India that Pakistan remains on a tight leash and does not begin to have any allures of an independent decision-making entity.

2) A Pakistan with control only over Pakjab, semi-control over Sindh and in a state of conflict with Pushtuns and divested of Baluchistan is a Pakistan which can be of immense benefit for Saudi Arabia as well as for India. That would be a Pakistan willing to jump whenever Saudis say 'jump' and would be smaller enough so that it poses no threat to India or is able to contain us.

3) As things stand now, Pakistan feels ever-compelled to seek an alliance with Iran to cut off Central Asia for India. This blockade is neither good for India nor is a Pak-Iran alliance good for the Saudis.

So Indians and GCC must cooperate to cut down Pakistan to a size at which it is amenable to both the interests of Arabian Peninsula as well as to the interests of India.

Yes there would be repercussions globally but there are so many factors at work that India's other relationships would remain in a similar equilibrium. In the meantime, India would have shown that India in partnership with a non-Western group can achieve many things important for our national interests.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 15 Oct 2015 16:30

RajeshA wrote:
panduranghari wrote:1) Balochistan:

..............

Well usually one of the GCC countries takes the initiative and becomes the public face of that initiative. For example, Qatar is where Taliban opened an office for liaison.

Similarly I think a country like Oman has to become the front through which all arms to Balochistan flow, all diplomatic efforts there, where all groups can meet and plan. The rest of the GCC simply have to stand behind Oman. Also one needs somewhere where one can put up training camps.


Secondly one has to improve on the technology and military resources there. Satellite tracking of military movements can help Balochis militia better target Paki Army. India can help here.

If Afghans can throw out the Soviet army, then Balochis too can do the same to Pakistani Army, if they receive training, intelligence, organizational help, diplomatic support, and weapons.

The Gulf countries still haven't punished Pakistan for its cockiness. The only way the Gulf countries would get its slave army back is by putting Pakistanis in their place for once and all, and that requires taking away Baluchistan.

.


@RA: There's a problem here. Practically of all GCC, the closest India has ties to is Oman. But Oman is unlikely to be open to an independent Balochistan. Oman which used to own Gwadar till 1958 has a fairly large population of Baloch origin who are very sympathetic to the Baloch cause. However given Oman's delicate balance between various ethnicities/ tribes and it's keeping everyone happy foreign policy, I don't believe that this will work out. In that case who champions the Indian support for the Baloch? UAE- Are our relations strong enough? Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar- Doubt they will be of major help.

Maybe the answer lies in a shift in our way of thinking, as you said, and develop newer tools. But for the moment it looks like a non-starter.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kit » 15 Oct 2015 16:40

Interesting thoughts., Saudi needs to do the same thing that Pakistan does to the US .. talk and keep them engaged and kick them from behind !

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 15 Oct 2015 16:51

Mukesh.Kumar wrote: @RA: There's a problem here. Practically of all GCC, the closest India has ties to is Oman. But Oman is unlikely to be open to an independent Balochistan. Oman which used to own Gwadar till 1958 has a fairly large population of Baloch origin who are very sympathetic to the Baloch cause. However given Oman's delicate balance between various ethnicities/ tribes and it's keeping everyone happy foreign policy, I don't believe that this will work out. In that case who champions the Indian support for the Baloch? UAE- Are our relations strong enough? Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar- Doubt they will be of major help.

Maybe the answer lies in a shift in our way of thinking, as you said, and develop newer tools. But for the moment it looks like a non-starter.


On the contrary, I believe Oman would be perfect for this. The "delicate balance" you speak of may be more of a means of trying to not ruffle the feathers of those groups whose thinking is more aligned to that of the Saudis. But here, the initiative would have to come from the Saudis themselves, so the Omanis and the Saudis may in fact find an alignment in their thinking.

It is the Saudis who have to make the strategic decision.

Would the Omani reject Saudi initiative if it involves "liberating" territories over which Oman previously held sovereignty?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 15 Oct 2015 17:10

RajeshA, honestly speaking I have just spent a few years in the country. Though I have traveled all over and integrated more than most expats, I do not know all factors in the calculus of the powers that be. But my reading is that Oman has been amicable and stable in the GCC despite having a Yemen and Saudi as neighbours because:
1) The monarch has kept a strong hand and not let any of the tribal/ ethno-religious factions (the delicate balance I spoke of) become dominant. For the Baloch issue the lines of fragmentation along ethno-religious lines could be Balushi-Sunni, Lawati(Persian origin)-Shia, Ibadi-orginal Omani. Zanzibair-Sunni and Dhofari-Sunni may sit out this slugging match. It's a faultline, that the government may not be willing to stress without significant benefits. An independent Balochistan may also be a potential economic competitor in gas exports to Indian sub-continent. What's in it for Oman?
2) A Saudi-Omani alliance will also need a strong inducement. Omani's don't like the Saudi (they call them 'magnoon' and 'bedu' in private). They are wary of the Wahhabi influence and the diplomatic clumsiness of the Saudi. Even when Oman has been under major economic stress, it has refused Saudi financial help. In fact, historically they have had a territorial dispute with Saudi.
3) Oman knows that it is not as strong financially or militarily in a region ruled by hotheads. Yet consistently they have punched above their weight by being on good terms with everyone. Till now they have been highly dependent on American and British military (and thereby influence) to survive in the neighbourhood.

Maybe the only way we can get Oman to join this movement is if we can become guarantors for their security. Tall ask not only as it involves a change in way we think, but also Unkill and Poodlee may interfere against it.

Just my 2 Omani Rials
Oman

P.S. Adding to point 2:
RajeshA wrote:
Would the Omani reject Saudi initiative if it involves "liberating" territories over which Oman previously held sovereignty?

Oman and Saudi have bad blood over disputed territory. Even now close to the border with Yemen and Saudi, there are parts which Saudi has eyes on for possible oil fields (Roughly this area)

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby RajeshA » 15 Oct 2015 18:13

Mukesh.Kumar ji,

thanks for ears to the ground view!

Yes, I do advocate India becoming a guarantor of Omani security. In any case if Oman has to be built up as the base of Baluchistan's freedom struggle, then India would have to be involved in security, training and logistics in a big way.

But I hope that the Houthi rebellion in the South has taught the Saudis that they shouldn't try to bite more than they can chew!

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Prem » 15 Oct 2015 21:34

More than Balochistan , separate Sindh Desh should be priority. sindh has population, border with India , big chunk of Paki revenue and coastline. We can offer Water & economic linkage , Saudi can provide energy, moral and diplomatic support. Easy to start Civil disobedience movement there if Zardari and Altaf Bhai declare their Dosti.That which came first in Sindh shall go out of Hind Via Sindh.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Paul » 15 Oct 2015 21:39

Obama announcement of continued US presence in Afghanistan is to forestall possibility of US getting shut out of Afghanistan in case of Iran-Pak rapproachment.

Russia and China will be okay with this.


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