Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Manish_P
BRFite
Posts: 884
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 07 Nov 2017 17:08

^ +1

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 270
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 07 Nov 2017 20:29

Saudi Arabia having less money to splurge on mosques worldwide should suffice, assuming that the Qatars and Dubais don't fill the gap. It is not just KSA that practices salafi islam in that region.

Manish_P
BRFite
Posts: 884
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 07 Nov 2017 20:47

De-fang one at a time. Get the big one first. They are all in the same pit.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 270
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 07 Nov 2017 21:01

There is no defanging these countries, given all their wealth and the backing of rich western countries, unless they manage to do it themselves like the pakis, with a little encouragement...

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 554
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 07 Nov 2017 21:24

periaswamy wrote:There is no defanging these countries, given all their wealth and the backing of rich western countries, unless they manage to do it themselves like the pakis, with a little encouragement...

1. They are quite capable of doing that
2. Any stability will open doors for increased Russian influence in this area. Dont think which is what US and European allies would want, esp their increase gas dependency on russia. However, Russia and Iran might actually want to get back for what UK/Turkey did in Syria
In the end, while India will lose the remittances and will have to worry about the oil supplies (for our exports too), we will be better off because
a. Less wahabi/salafi money for Pakis/J&K
b. There has been a recent trend for last 5 years to look more like Arabs, spell/pronounce the festivals like arabs. That is also because the poor uneducated looks upon KSA/UAE as a shining glory of Islam in today's age rather than Syria. With them too eventually failing (IF), they will be forced to look inwards and appreciate what India has to offer
c. Return of cheap labor (not that there is any shortage of it), will control the increasing labor prices

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 08 Nov 2017 01:37

My analysis dated Jan 2016!!!!

viewtopic.php?p=1962983#p1962983

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 270
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 08 Nov 2017 05:33

arjunpandit: c. Return of cheap labor (not that there is any shortage of it), will control the increasing labor prices


Depends on the sector -- the real problem in India is the labour laws, not the availability of cheap labour. But labour reform is still a to-do item. The economy has to be able to absorb all these workers, or maybe these workers will be able to pump up the indian economy provided they are provided guidance on how to wisely shift back to India before the saudi house of cards collapses.

The weaker the saudi position gets, the more they lose bargaining power to sell oil, which should have an effect on their margins, as it already has. That works to India's advantage, even though there are negatives re: the exodus of Indian labourers and the reduction in NRI deposits. It is a make-or-break situation w.r.t. fixing the Indian economy and improving the ease of job creation (and fixing of labour laws) -- I think the clock is ticking.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6850
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby JE Menon » 08 Nov 2017 23:24

KLNM,

Answering your question on the 'West Asia news" thread about potential impact of Saudi changes on India, my feeling is that what is happening is good for India on several levels - but let's just focus on the MBS taking charge of the situation angle (and keep in mind that health or mortality can change the situation quite rapidly):

1. The Islam angle... This is going to be generally beneficial, as the Salafi impulse may be somewhat moderated from the Saudi side. In other words, the export subsidies would be cut. But this will not account for the suitcase traders (our own expats living locally who will imbibe, pack, take it home, unpack with local characteristics and spread). But there will be a moderation on the Saudi side.

2. State to state relations will almost certainly improve (possibly at a faster clip than it has been already doing). The Gulf states have begun to realise how important India is becoming and they are quite happy to engage, especially considering that we are engaging with Iran at the same time. They have their own concerns, plus they want a politically unmotivated workforce and goes in and goes out with minimal trouble. We, of course, love the remittances.

3. From a strategic perspective, a more moderate and relaxed Saudi Arabia (politically and socially as well as economically) is a good thing for India. The opportunities will be more. Influence is not just a one-way street. It is not harmful if the House of Saud begins to think of the government of India (if it hasn't already) as one of its potential protectors. There will be many practical benefits spilling over out of that. It's probably inevitable actually.

That's all for now.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 09 Nov 2017 00:21

I would watch the ongoing power struggle with interest and hope it ends in the splitting of KSA into the traditional three regions.
Current mess is due to British creating the KSA and the US finding oil there.
It was fine till US companies advised ARAMCO to raise price of oil in 1973 and plunge the world into economic recession.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 09 Nov 2017 04:24

JEM, I don't think GOI will be the protector of KSA if it ever comes to that. India has its own Shia Muslims to think of in large pockets (UP, Hyderabad, Gujarat, and Maharashtra etc.) and has seen the brunt of Sunni excesses.
So not happening.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 21712
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 09 Nov 2017 06:42

I hope that as a result of the likely rebellion in KSA, the Hashemites get back the Hijaz region as they traditionally used to have until the British helped Abdulaziz Al-Saud to take it over forcefully. The Al-Saud family then became the 'Custodian of Two Holy Mosques' and the spread of wahhabism accelerated.

The Saudis should be defanged not only of oil wealth, which is on course to happen, but also of the religious authority for the world to rid itself of the extremist and fundamentalist Islamist ideology that is at the root of jihadism.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 09 Nov 2017 08:06

SS. you got the issue.

The Wahabi snake has to be defanged.
Dhondubam

At same time the Hashemite are not the ones who originally had it.
Current one is mostly British.

atma
BRFite
Posts: 169
Joined: 04 Jun 2006 23:37
Location: Frozen Tundra

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby atma » 09 Nov 2017 08:46

SSridhar wrote:I hope that as a result of the likely rebellion in KSA, the Hashemites get back the Hijaz region as they traditionally used to have until the British helped Abdulaziz Al-Saud to take it over forcefully. The Al-Saud family then became the 'Custodian of Two Holy Mosques' and the spread of wahhabism accelerated.

The Saudis should be defanged not only of oil wealth, which is on course to happen, but also of the religious authority for the world to rid itself of the extremist and fundamentalist Islamist ideology that is at the root of jihadism.


I totally agree. A Hashemite takeover of Hejaz (preferably by King Abdullah of Jordan), and the shrines, and Independence of the Oil and agriculturally rich, Shia dominated Eastern Province and Najaran, with the Saudis relegated back to central province of Nejd (Now Riyadh) would achieve a double defang.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3708
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Karthik S » 09 Nov 2017 09:04

That along with balkanization of pak will go great distance in containing one type of terror and extremism from our perspective.

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3315
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby hnair » 09 Nov 2017 17:47

FWIW, the fish who swims upriver is in a terminal state and talk upriver is that abdication (if that happens) is slated for mid-next year. There will not be an easy transition, because his favorite fingerling has not yet mustered enough strength to drop the yolk sac. Costco Tang and his Turgidsons apparently was luke warm in saying if fingerling is their cuppa or not. Will be interesting even next door, because places like Sharjah et al exists as low-cost housing areas of Dubai, thanks to bonus they got from hosting an over abundance of mosques donated by the House of barbarian.

Anyone less barbaric and obtuse than the past lineage will be uncontrollable, if they sip the kool-aid of popularism. Tang-appan will take his time. These desert bandits lead a long century of successfully exporting their banditry and yet had no consequences thanks to not disturbing khan's pipeline. Else they had caused numerous pinpricks to khan himself

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17601
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Philip » 09 Nov 2017 20:32

The tidal wave of concern would've hit the Pakis in their ghoolies! They consider Soothi Barbaria,-"keeper of the two holy places" of Islam as their spiritual and material godfather.To witness a fratricidal "Royal Rumble " in the palace where in true Islamic style one ambitious pr*ck,oops!,... prince, turns against his "blood brothers",
harkens back to the mediaeval era of bloodletting.
The Pak elite,many of whom would have cost financial arrangements with the now disgraced " corrupt clique of royals, must be quivering in their pyjamas and uniforms.Gone would be their fatted pensions and palatial lifestyles courtesy their Soothi bumchums . The uncertainty of the future of the KSA ,tbeir chief Islamic patron to whom they owe immensely,must be sending shivers down their spines .Watching the fallout in Pak is going to be equally entertaining.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 09 Nov 2017 21:08

HNair If you cant write clearly please don't.
What's the need to be so obtuse?
Look at JEM and his clear writing and that too even in Swarajya magazine.

We all are trying to learn and be clear.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3506
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby KLNMurthy » 09 Nov 2017 21:13

SSridhar wrote:I hope that as a result of the likely rebellion in KSA, the Hashemites get back the Hijaz region as they traditionally used to have until the British helped Abdulaziz Al-Saud to take it over forcefully. The Al-Saud family then became the 'Custodian of Two Holy Mosques' and the spread of wahhabism accelerated.

The Saudis should be defanged not only of oil wealth, which is on course to happen, but also of the religious authority for the world to rid itself of the extremist and fundamentalist Islamist ideology that is at the root of jihadism.


This is something I have long wished for. Hashemites are the legitimate custodians of Makka-madina. They, being descendants of mohammed, are natural aristocrats unlike the saudis, and that could work to the advantage of the world.

We need makka-madina to be turned into an international city, with some sort of governing council that has global democratic or proportional representation. The politics would hopefully keep the Muslims busy. I am not really sure whether that will make Indian Muslims, as a whole, better or worse for India and the world.

JEM, thanks for the response. What about the China factor? I'll elaborate my concerns in a later post.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 09 Nov 2017 21:17

Which Mohammad?
That Bandasura has codified every repugnant atrocity as a religious practice

Such a human can't be for he is so vile that he is incarnation of Satan if he existed.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17601
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Philip » 09 Nov 2017 22:39

Once again a crusader nation will anoint who the "keepers" are if the KSA divides.It is more likely that at a future time the latter-day Salmaan-a-din will be deposed by his own brethren of the tribe .His survival depends upon convincing his fellow Barbarians that the arrested royals were indeed looters of the national wealth. It is v.possible that he was deeply envious of the owner of the Savoy Hotel in London-perhaps even are a bad meal there which might explain his actions ,and lusts after his wealth.There is going to be the inevitable Barbarian version of a kangaroo court, where the guilty verdict is already well known.We just need the fig leaf of the trial before verdict is pronounced.Witnesses will be produced by the hundreds as MBS rides roughshod over the legal system in the country which amounts for little .

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 270
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 09 Nov 2017 23:12

KLNMurthy: We need makka-madina to be turned into an international city, with some sort of governing council that has global democratic or proportional representation. The politics would hopefully keep the Muslims busy.


You seriously think such a contest will be democratic in the islamic world? These guys slaughter each other for far less booty, let alone a contest for power and control over a religious symbol, and the religion itself, and the accompanying real estate of high value. "You keep what you kill" is closer to the mindset of this crowd in the middle east, unless of course, you are basing the above on some precedent event.

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 554
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Nov 2017 00:43

periaswamy wrote:
It is a make-or-break situation w.r.t. fixing the Indian economy and improving the ease of job creation (and fixing of labour laws) -- I think the clock is ticking.

tangential to the thread but very valid points swami ji. My sense is these big bang reforms will be reserved by NaMo for second term along with the danda for papistan

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 554
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Nov 2017 00:45

SSridhar wrote:I hope that as a result of the likely rebellion in KSA, the Hashemites get back the Hijaz region as they traditionally used to have until the British helped Abdulaziz Al-Saud to take it over forcefully. The Al-Saud family then became the 'Custodian of Two Holy Mosques' and the spread of wahhabism accelerated.

The Saudis should be defanged not only of oil wealth, which is on course to happen, but also of the religious authority for the world to rid itself of the extremist and fundamentalist Islamist ideology that is at the root of jihadism.

SS (not the german one) sir,
any recommendation on this branch history. Completely unaware of this. Thought of asking you rather than the googl-e-ilahi

SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4492
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SBajwa » 10 Nov 2017 02:10

Warlike Bedouins of the Nejd region have become very soft due to oil money. It is only USA that is keeping them up. As soon as oil dependence is removed they will destroy themselves.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 10 Nov 2017 04:21

Arjun It's on either this thread or West Asia. Just look a couple of pages in both of them.

Have you seen Lawrence of Arabia the movie first?


Ok read this post on page 7 of this thread:

viewtopic.php?p=1962970#p1962970

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3506
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby KLNMurthy » 10 Nov 2017 04:27

periaswamy wrote:
KLNMurthy: We need makka-madina to be turned into an international city, with some sort of governing council that has global democratic or proportional representation. The politics would hopefully keep the Muslims busy.


You seriously think such a contest will be democratic in the islamic world? These guys slaughter each other for far less booty, let alone a contest for power and control over a religious symbol, and the religion itself, and the accompanying real estate of high value. "You keep what you kill" is closer to the mindset of this crowd in the middle east, unless of course, you are basing the above on some precedent event.


You can put "democratic " in quotes if you prefer.

My idea is to get different muslim groups arguing and fighting each other over control of makka-madina. I don't care if they do it violently or "peacefully ". Main thing is thaf I would like to see an end to the present situation in which there is a more or less stable unitary control of makka-madina guaranteed indirectly by the might of khan.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 21712
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 10 Nov 2017 08:54

ArjunPandit wrote:any recommendation on this branch history. Completely unaware of this.

A long time back, The Times, London produced an excellent book, "Guide to the Middle East" a few years after the Gulf War, IIRC. If you can lay your hands on it, it gives the complete overview, and surprisingly without the narrative being much influenced by British interests. The other excellent book is "War Without End" by Dilip Hiro that gives a comprehensive history of the rise of Islam up to and including 9/11 & GWOT (not the latest decade, though).

But, the history in a nutshell is like this:

The ME was 'ruled' by various interests at the turn of the last century: the various 'families' that were influential and owed their protection either to the Ottoman (which was distant and waning) or the British. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that we know of today didn't exist but there were different regions of this geography known by their Arabic names. Thus, Hejaz (or Hijaz) was the western part (of present day Saudi Arabia, along the Red Sea) that included Jidda (Jeddah), Makkah (Mecca) and Madinah. Nejd is modern-day Riyadh and surrounding areas. Al-Ahsa is the oil-rich eastern part (Dhahran, Jubail) that has traditionally been dominated by Shi'a tribes. Rub-al-Khali is the great desert between Nejd and Al-Ahsa.

The Al-Saud family comes from the Nejd region and early last century, ibn Abdul Aziz Al-Saud took control of Riyadh, taking help from the British, and came under British 'protectorate'. Earlier, the Nejd region was under the faraway Ottoman Caliphate. The Ottomans were already fraying at the edges (even beginning to fray in the core itself) and were only nominally ruling these places through their proxies and the British were clawing in. The Hashimi dynasty had ruled the Hejaz region for many centuries before. The Hashimis claim to be direct descendants of the Prophet and though the Prophet had never detailed how the Caliphate should be ruled after his time (he died abruptly), the unwritten agreement among his ansars (followers) has been to entrust the Caliphate to one from the same tribe/clan. The Hashimis claim to be so and to this day claim the rights for Hejaz. On the other hand, the Al-Saud family is *not* a direct descendant or even from the same tribe or clan. The current ruler of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is one such 'descendant of the Prophet' (in Pakistan, everyone is :lol: ) and his great grandfather (?) was ruling Hejaz around the time the Ottoman Caliphate collapsed and WW-I raged. The Great Game between the Russian and British Empires was on.

So long as the Ottoman Caliphate was functional, even if only dysfunctional, the Hashemite Kingdom was subservient to that and nobody questioned the King's control of Makka & Medina, which were great money-spinners too apart from the religious authority they vested in the controlling entity. The British wanted to destroy the Ottoman Caliphate (Lawrence of Arabia movie depicts some happenings in the Arabian peninsula). During WW-I, the British encouraged the Hashemite King to rebel against the Ottoman Caliph. Once the Ottoman were defeated in WW-I, it created huge Islamist issues all over the world. The Khilafat Movement in India was one such. The British were considered anti-Islamic because of their decisive role in dismantling the Caliphate. The British had taken control of Iraq & Transjordan (present day Jordan) from the defeated Ottoman Caliphate and installed the Hashemite Kingdom to rule these places too apart from Hejaz which it was already ruling. Emboldened by the dismantling of the Ottoman Caliphate and his expanding empire, the Hashemite King declared himself as the new Caliph as he had the control of the two Holiest cities. He probably thought that after the Rashidun, Ummayads & Abbasids, the Hashemites could establish the next Caliphate.

ibn Abdul Aziz, already on an empire-building mode with the help of various tribes and the clerical backing of the wahhabis, was offended by this action of the Hashemite King and defeated him. In the meanwhile, the British had developed antagonism towards the Hashimi King and he was left defenceless against a rampaging Abdul Aziz who had a large Ikhwan force with him (that the Ikhwans turned against him after Abdul Aziz became the King of Hejaz is another matter). ibn Abdul Aziz took over Makka and later Medina too as the Hashemite King had abdicated. Soon thereafter, the British recognized ibn Abdul Aziz as the King of Hejaz even as the rest of the Muslim community was fearful of the taking over of their two Holiest places by the wahhabis. Later, the British were handsomely granted rights for oil exploration by ibn Abdul Aziz.

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 554
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Nov 2017 09:43

Thanks so much sir, this post needs to be kept as a ME Primer

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3315
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby hnair » 10 Nov 2017 15:22

ramana wrote:HNair If you cant write clearly please don't.
What's the need to be so obtuse?
Look at JEM and his clear writing and that too even in Swarajya magazine.

We all are trying to learn and be clear.


ramanaji, indeed, I am a big fan of JEM and his clear writing, since I first started read his posts. My irreverent self wishes to be your fan too, when you start writing such articles, but I digress. I got whatever I wrote about that timeline, from a friend working as the ME rep of a non-Indian central bank, hence pardon my obtuseness. It is as chaiwalla as it comes, considering they make him adorn his office with photos of the clan's elders, who have been dealing with the the bank since the original guy came riding out of Nejd.

So with your permission, I would like to post on this further and pardon my obtuseness. Trivandrum and its neighboring district of Kanyakumari, surprisingly, has the maximum number of non-muslim Indian citizens working in that country. These are folks who got absorbed in skilled positions, after Shah of Iran passed away and there was an exodus that affected the local economy. So the place, its nejd vs hejaz conflicts etc interests me.

KLNMurthy, you saar, have the right solution. The Sharief of Makkah model needs to be resurrected with a rotating committee from the ummah. But it is going to be uphill, considering khan's ongoing interest in oil and need for a local caretaker. Once interest wanes, things might go that way.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 10 Nov 2017 22:16

Sure go ahead and explore those nejd vs hejaz conflicts. However be wary for those could be masked by Arabs vs Persians conflicts which are much older....
Meanwhile House of Saud

Image

Please print out and start putting and x on those in prison.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 10 Nov 2017 22:24

SS, One thing to add to your narrative.

The Ottoman Sultan built a railway from Damascus to Medina and that cut the travel time for Haj from 40 days via Jeddah and Camel Express to 4 days by Iron Horse. The railway was built using money from all over the ummah including Indian Muslims.

This travel short cut broke the Arab rice bowl as they made a lot of money catering to Haj pilgrims. So the Hashemite Sheikh went to Cairo and started negotiation with British to revolt against he Ottomans. Lawrence was sent to stoke the rebellion. One of the first rebel attacks was on that railway which is shown in the movie.

There was lady spy named Gertrude Bell who also helped break up the Ottoman Empire using Arabs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gertrude_Bell

Nicole Kidman acted in a movie about her.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3708
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Karthik S » 11 Nov 2017 10:27

Gurus here, from Bharat's perspective, what's going on KSA is it good or not? This article says it's bad because higher fuel prices will affect the growth and low inflation that we've been having so far. But from over all game of thrones perspective, how events in KSA will affect us good and bad.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/eight-r ... ign=buffer

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 47896
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 11 Nov 2017 12:20

That guy is looking from mercantile point.
KSA and ME reorder is in process. It was stalled since Ottoman collapse.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1239
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 11 Nov 2017 12:43

My guess is that MBS is both calculative and ruthless. He seems to have already consolidated his power and additionally has a mercenary army headed by Paki Sharif at his disposal to put down any resistance.

He seems determined to be the dictator of KSA for next several decades given his current young age.

Instead of day dreaming abt imminent breakup of KSA, we should be prepared for a bold, dynamic and at times rash government of KSA under MBS.
Last edited by schinnas on 11 Nov 2017 13:47, edited 1 time in total.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3708
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Karthik S » 11 Nov 2017 12:46

Even Gen Asnain talks about higher oil prices. Aren't we importing from other countries, and recently from the US? Slightly OT, China is doing massive R&D on electric tech vehicles, as usual we are missing this bus. He suggests its advantage Iran. New axis is Russia-Iran-Syria and KSA-USA.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/saudi- ... royal-coup

Wish he spoke from Indian internal security and shift in balance of power point of view.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3708
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Karthik S » 11 Nov 2017 12:47

schinnas wrote:My guess is that MSB is both calculative and ruthless. He seems to have already consolidated his power and additionally has a mercenary army headed by Paki Sharif at his disposal to put down any resistance.

He seems determined to be the dictator of KSA for next several decades given his current young age.

Instead of day dreaming abt imminent breakup of KSA, we should be prepared for a bold, dynamic and at times rash government of KSA under MBS.


Well, has the paki army put its foot in Yemen?

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 21712
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 11 Nov 2017 15:35

ramana wrote:KSA and ME reorder is in process. It was stalled since Ottoman collapse.

Absolutely. In fact, the reorder went in the wrong way for which the world has suffered.

If the collapse of the Ottoman Caliphate gave rise to pan-Islamism in India (which incidentally was led by Gandhiji and opposed by Jinnah), the seizure of the Hejaz by the marauding Wahhabists gave rise to widespread and fundamentalism, extremism and a literalist interpretation of the Koran and the Hadith and legitimized all these. If one looks at history of that time period, most Islamic nations detested, even at that time, the take-over of the Hejaz by the extremist wahhabis. Their reputation was fierce even then. Imran Hosein (quoted earlier in this thread) has so brilliantly exposed the duplicity of the Al Saud family (especially Abdul Aziz) and the British.

I would like to address some of the important ways the events in the Hejaz affected India and continue to affect it.

The Khilafat movement in India gave rise to alliances whose effects are still being felt in the form of pseudo-secularism and militant Islamism. Aligarh and its Mohammedan Anglo-Oriental School played a crucial role in the form of the Ali brothers, who dominated the Khilafat Movement ably supported by Gandhiji. No wonder the Ganga-Jamuna belt has given us so much grief. The elite Indian Muslims who were nurturing a sense of loss with the extinction of the Mughal court were even more dismayed by the collapse of the Caliphate. This is when the Koranic idea of Dar-ul-Islam, Dar-ul-Harb and the consequent obligation of jihad re-visited India a second time (the first being the hijra to Afghanistan by Berelvi & Sheikh Waliullah to fight the Sikh Kingdom). At this point of time Gandhiji's leadership lost its plot as the Khilafat movement became totally religious and a hijra from dar-ul-harb to dar-ul-Islam started from India to Afghanistan once again. But, King Amanuallah turned them back and this added to their sense of desolation. The wholesale massacre of Hindus indulged in by the Moplahs of Malabar was a direct consequence of these events. Maulana Abu ala Al Mawdudi, who is regarded as one of the two the greatest thinkers of Islamism of the previous century, the other being Syed Qutb, and who is quoted extensively by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi of ISIS, blossomed out of the Khilafat movement.

It was in the context of opposing the British machinations in the Arabian peninsula that the Deobandi ulema joined hands with the INC in the Khilafat movement. The Berelvis, on the other hand, felt that the 'non-cooperation movement' etc against the British to restore the Caliphate were un-Islamic and a direct action was needed. It is this which led eventually to a split in Deoband as ulema like the Usmani brothers (Zafar & Shabir Usmani who was asked by Jinnah to hoist the Pakistani flag in Karachi) moving towards the Muslim League. From that point on, the Berelvi ulema hijacked the clerical component of the Pakistani Movement. Rest we know. Today, Deobandis in Pakistan are settling their blood feud with the Berelvis.

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2008
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby abhik » 11 Nov 2017 23:31

Karthik S wrote:Gurus here, from Bharat's perspective, what's going on KSA is it good or not? This article says it's bad because higher fuel prices will affect the growth and low inflation that we've been having so far. But from over all game of thrones perspective, how events in KSA will affect us good and bad.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/eight-r ... ign=buffer

ramana wrote:That guy is looking from mercantile point.
KSA and ME reorder is in process. It was stalled since Ottoman collapse.

Yup, looking at it only through the lens of oil prices and remittances is like avoiding excising the body because of the pain/discomfort it can cause in the short term. We are the closest big powers to the region and need to start acting like one. We need to be influencing events not just worrying about evacuations when the shit hits the fan.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 270
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 11 Nov 2017 23:42

abhik: We are the closest big powers to the region and need to start acting like one. We need to be influencing events not just worrying about evacuations when the shit hits the fan.


Sorry, but sounds like 'hand-waving" generalities -- doubt if anyone can disagree with this kind of "world peace must be achieved" kind of statement, but given that the repercussions of these events are yet to even begin, what is the kind of "influence" that can change the course of events (without any blowback associated with getting involved in bloody religious wars).

The rest of the ME kingdoms are fragmented and bracing themselves for some sort of economic turmoil from the fallout of this royal bloodbath. Short of taking sides in this whole Shia-sunni bloodletting, what options are worth pursuing here without getting into the whole religious conflict much?

Most of interested third parties, which will be just as affected by oil prices and any instability, are just waiting for the dust to settle to see the direction in which MBS will shape events (or be shaped by them). The Houthis and Lebanon and Hamas are all starting to get cheesed off with KSA, and the armed militias on their side will not sit quietly if KSA continues its shenanigans. Short of diversifying the oil sources, to lessen the impact of KSA instability, if that happens, don't see what military or economic power can do to shape events.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6850
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby JE Menon » 12 Nov 2017 16:29

RD,

Replying to your question in the Indo-US thread... I've read Arihant P's article in Swarajya. I concur basically with Ramana's observation above. If you remove the 5th and 6th introductory paragraphs, and keep only the first 7 out of 8 points, this article may more accurately have been titled: 7 reasons why high oil prices are not good for India. It would then have been a better article too, in my opinion.

Point 8 refers specifically to the Jihadi issue, but not really in depth. Shia-Sunni confrontation has been happening, and will continue. Jihadi violence has been happening and will continue. In this context, what does the statements and actions of MBS mean. This is what I wrote about in my article on the subject.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], marimuthu, nishu, saip and 34 guests