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Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

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schinnas
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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 16:59

If KSA breaks up into 3, oil prices can tumble or at worst exhibit momentary instability before nose diving. If MBS becomes a powerful dictator like uncle 11, oil prices will stabilize and the power behind extremism will continue to exist unabated.

India needs to make clear its preference and woek towards manifesting it.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby nam » 12 Nov 2017 17:15

Regarding the oil price and effect on India, the largest consumer( around 40-50%) of oil in India... is Indian Railways.

Electrify Indian Railways and roll out EV on roads, you have reduced the dependency.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Nov 2017 18:32

What about stocks/financials? As much a part of "security" these days as military power because mil power is so heavily dependent on foreign purchases and energy costs. Great idea, this thread.
Not clear that oil prices will tumble. Any serious bissing contest between KSA and Iran or even KSA and Qatar can quickly escalate into blocking the Straits of Hormuz etc. Houthi mijjiles can reach Ras Tanura even before official Iranian ones, and a lot of oil/ construction companies will pull out of KSA in a hurry as the mobs surge in the streets with ATGMs.
May save Venezuela and make Putin rich at the same time.
Hope someone cross-posts that Drudge Chicken-Little report here b4 I do.
Indian railways hopefully has the coal-steam engines still available in the engine graveyards. If Saudi oil supplies are cut, US/Canadian fracking will shoot up and Carbon Market will go down the tubes, hain?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 12 Nov 2017 19:53

MBS's reckless actions against Yemen, Qatar, Iran, his palace coup and the kidnapping of Rafik Hariri show that he is a loose canon in the mould of Trump. The two seem to be forming a tag team now. Can the world survive this imprudent onslaught?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 21:45

SSji,
MBS is brazen and rash but at the same time seems calculated and ruthless unlike Trump who chooses to indulge in empty bravado. MBS is changing the dynamics in middle East in such a short time that has no parallels in modern history (with exception of Iraq war). The embargo on Qatar, forced resignation of Jordan PM, action against Yemen, master plan for restricting Saudi economy and govt organization, calculated and swift consolidation of power, etc.

The danger to India is that we don't seem to have developed strong relationship or influence over him. Thanks to mercenary Sherif, Pukis have some understanding of MBS and his inner coterie.

The economic restructuring of Saudi can be a great opportunity for our construction, IT and services industry. On the other hand, this loose cannon may precipitate things in a way that harms India and the region further.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 21:51

US would be loathe to allow chinese construction companies in Saudi. MBS himself wouldn't want Turkish companies. US and EU companies are expensive. Time to closely with with MBS to ensure that we help in their major infra projects and help build their new global city and fully provide their IT infra. It can provide direct and indirect opportunity to half to one million Indian laborers and white collar workers going by the size of the projects. Saudis just don't have the skilled labor force to do the work themselves.

Time for India amd Indian industry to silently depute some capable track 2 emissaries to work towards that.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 21:59

This is also great opportunity for India + Japan and India + South Korea to partner and form JVs to bid for mega projects world over. Japan and So Ko can bring financing, technology and highly skilled workforce, India can provide end to end IT, semi skilled workforce at scale and enture service industry run cost effectively out of Indian BPO centers.

For example, High speed railways with Japanese technology and Indian coaches all over middle East built and operated by Indian work force. The possibilities are endless. So far only China has demonstrated such boldness in vision. Time for India and Japan to join hands to change the world.

One may wonder why this in strategic affairs thread. Economy is the first and foremost strategic consideration. Make India indispensable to Saudi progress (and this denies scope for Cheen and Paki meddling) and this is a win win considering increasing unemployment in India.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 12 Nov 2017 22:11

schinnas: The danger to India is that we don't seem to have developed strong relationship or influence over him. Thanks to mercenary Sherif, Pukis have some understanding of MBS and his inner coterie.


The Saudis are as racist as they come, easily evidenced by the way Indians are treated as slaves in KSA. This is also seen in the way Saudis place people in the corporate hierarchy, with a strong correlation with race -- darker your skin, the lower down you are in the scheme of things.

The US developed "a strong relationship" with the saudis, and the only result was the Saudis bribing the US govt. at all levels in Washington DC over the course of many decades, against the interests of the US public at large. Politicians from both parties and people in the US govt. have benefitted a lot from the KSA relationship -- all that the public has got is slimy islamist operators misleading the public about islamism, and infiltrating educational institutions with the same end goal. The fact that US islamists side with the illiberal left in the US (which includes all the academics in IS colleges) to shut down any discussion about islamism and Islam is not a coincidence.

Patently stupid to allow India to get influenced in a similar manner, given the way things are currently, and the kind of destabilizing effects we have seen from those returning from KSA, and saudi "investment" in the region. The Saudis must be allowed to screw themselves just like the pakis -- there are plenty of other actors with whom India can form more reliable long-term relationships, without the danger of unwanted side-effects .

Plenty of Indians have been screwed out of their wages by Saudi companies very recently, so what would emulating the pakis and "gaining more influence" (it is debatable that the pakis have any influence at all, being the rent boys that they are) get for India in real terms?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 22:21

Couldn't disagree more with you. If all you think that US got for protecting Saudi was to get bribed, u r mistaken. Saudi and gulf are the foundation of perro dollar based US economic domination of the world. US Saudi is not just a win win, its WIN (US) and win (Saudi).

Regarding Saudi being racist, true...But things can be changed ... Dubai is the example where Indians are CEOs of several Emirati companies now a days with Sheikh's working for them.
Last edited by schinnas on 12 Nov 2017 22:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 12 Nov 2017 22:25

In 1965 the Gulf region switched from the Indian rupee to the US dollar.

One of the chess moves of 1965 war.

And the US is very innocent.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 12 Nov 2017 22:33

schinnas: Couldn't disagree more with you. If all you think that US got for protecting Saudi was to get bribed, u r mistaken. Saudi and gulf is the foundation of perro dollar based US economic domination of the world. US Saudi is nit just a win win, its WIN (US) and win (Saudi).


No, that is not what I stated. Influence is a two-way street, and it is easier for theocracies to influence democracies, and much harder to do vice versa. I am not sure that Saudi influence in changing the image of predatory islamism among the US public can be sneezed just because american construction and defence companies got rich off the saudis over the past decades. It is also far from true that what is in the interest of these corporations (most of whom fund and lobby the US political classes) is necessarily in the interests of the public at large. US managed to get all the oil trade in dollars, and nothing you have stated addresses that part -- if India can, via whatever means, get out of dollar-based oil trade and use rupees instead, that would worth something.

Also, if India's part is going to be just as a provider of construction labour, surely that is already the reality in KSA. Most of the money goes to the firms that engineer buildings rather than the labour force that does the manual part of the project. So why is keeping the status quo some sort of a win-win for India in this situation?

Regarding Saudi being racist, true...But things can be changed ... Dubai is the example where Indians are CEOs of several Emirati companies now a days with Sheikh's working for them.


Yeah, good luck with that. It all depends on the royalty -- the sultan of Oman or Dubai are a tad more liberal (relatively speaking) than the Qataris and the Saudis.
Last edited by periaswamy on 12 Nov 2017 22:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 22:34

ramana wrote:In 1965 the Gulf region switched from the Indian rupee to the US dollar.

One of the chess moves of 1965 war.

And the US is very innocent.


This is a less discussed or known topic. If you or someone who has analysed this turn of events were to post your thoughts it would be very much appreciated.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 12 Nov 2017 22:36

Periaswamy sir,
Pls read my post again. Where do I say india should only provide _just_ cheap labor.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 12 Nov 2017 23:04

periaswamy wrote:
The US developed "a strong relationship" with the saudis, and the only result was the Saudis bribing the US govt. at all levels in Washington DC over the course of many decades, against the interests of the US public at large. Politicians from both parties and people in the US govt. have benefitted a lot from the KSA relationship -- all that the public has got is slimy islamist operators misleading the public about islamism, and infiltrating educational institutions with the same end goal. The fact that US islamists side with the illiberal left in the US (which includes all the academics in IS colleges) to shut down any discussion about islamism and Islam is not a coincidence.


This post is incorrect at so many levels. Petrodollar instantly made dollar the reserve currency of world. Last year alone usa ran a trade deficit of half a trillion dollar and if you take cumulative trade deficit of usa since 1970s it will be many trillion dollars. That means USA purchased trillions of dollars worth actual goods - petrol, toys, cars, machinery, clothing, electronics, raw materials - all this that immensely enrich USA lifestyle. And what did US give in return ? paper or electronic equivalent. Inda finances its deficit through remittences, investment etc USA just needs to print dollars.

It is US right who are biggest freinds of Saudis much much more than left. Anyway it doesnt matter - USA benifitted so much that right or left they all love saudi.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby abhik » 12 Nov 2017 23:07

ramana wrote:In 1965 the Gulf region switched from the Indian rupee to the US dollar.

One of the chess moves of 1965 war.

And the US is very innocent.

To me the question we should be asking is why is MBS taking permission from damad Jared instead of Doval?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Nov 2017 23:09

ramana wrote:In 1965 the Gulf region switched from the Indian rupee to the US dollar.

One of the chess moves of 1965 war.

And the US is very innocent.

Very interesting saar, one learns something new here everyday..just did a quick search on my own..and vicky chawla told me this thing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_rupee

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 12 Nov 2017 23:10

schinnas: Pls read my post again. Where do I say india should just provide _just_ cheap labor.


Fair enough. My point is that I do not buy the assumption the US gained from the saudis not by just selling them expensive defense toys or getting involved in their economy, though that certainly did bring a lot of US $s spent on saudi oil back into the US (in theory). I question the benefit of allowing more saudi influence in Indian economy and public affairs does not seem commensurate to the cost of allowing them more influence in India to spread their islamist poison like they have done worldwide. AFAICT, US is backing MBS's royal coup to the hilt and is not about to leave space for other countries w.r.t. saudi matters, so all this may be pointless if KSA remains stable. OTOH, if KSA becomes more unstable, it will not be useful to get involved with that country in terms of business --- MBS just appropriated close to 800B$ of cash from his royal family, and there is no telling that he (or some other prince to overthrows him) will not do the same to some entity that India does business with down the line.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 12 Nov 2017 23:13

I take contrarian view here. Saudi success and stability is important not only for USA but also India. Saudis - give them credit where it is due - are capable nation builders and administrators. They successfully transitioned their national resources to national prosperity something a lot of countries failed to do including India. We need to wish MBS all success in his drive to stabilize the kingdom. The kingdom has been good to us in terms of jobs, trade and yes oil as well. Saudis are remarkable stable when it comes to oil production and have invested in cutting edge technology which benefits everyone. Regarding militancy I dont think saudis ever had an agenda of regime change until recently yemen - but lets not forget yemen, jordan are all arabs and share kinship. They do finance religion education worldwide as religious obligation but i dont beleive they have any agenda to destabilize any nation.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 12 Nov 2017 23:20

KiranA: This post is incorrect at so many levels. <snip> It is US right who are biggest freinds of Saudis much much more than left. Anyway it doesnt matter - USA benifitted so much that right or left they all love saudi.


I have already mentioned that $ trade in oil was the biggest benefit derived for the US, not so much all the recycling of US $ via construction and defence purchases etc. and I have not contested claims of the US benefitting from such a move. Nothing I have read so far indicates how India can take advantage of the current saudi situation to benefit to that extent -- nothing here suggests how India can either pay for oil trade in Rs. or increase the recycled amount of money it spends on saudi oil by orders of magnitude ( remittances from manual labour market while a lot, is hardly worth more saudi influence on India).

KiranA: Saudis - give them credit where it is due - are capable nation builders and administrators. They successfully transitioned their national resources to national prosperity something a lot of countries failed to do including India.


That's a lot of ignorant smeg,pardon my bhojpuri. Saudis got trillions of dollars just sitting on their butts and allowing the americans to do the prospecting and extraction and pretty much everything else (via Aramco) back from the 50s. All they did was blow all this money away by purchasing everything they needed for decades -- they did not even bother to create a good eductational system or a self-sufficient workforce. Instead, their entire economy is managed by outsourcing all skilled and manual work to foreigners. "transitioning national resources to prosperity" by handing out free money to citizens (something they can no longer afford to do), is hardly something to admire.

Even now the saudis are trying to run Aramco without american help, and they are far from succeeding on that front. For all the free PhDs that the saudis paid for over the past few decades, none of that has come back in the form of a competent local engineering workforce.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 12 Nov 2017 23:29

periaswamy wrote:

That's a lot of ignorant horsesh!t,pardon my bhojpuri. Saudis got trillions of dollars just sitting on their butts and allowing the americans to do the prospecting and extraction and pretty much everything else (via Aramco) back from the 50s. All they did was blow all this money away by purchasing everything they needed for decades -- they did not even bother to create a good eductational system or a self-sufficient workforce. Instead, their entire economy is managed by outsourcing all skilled and manual work to foreigners. "transitioning national resources to prosperity" by handing out free money to citizens (something they can no longer afford to do), is hardly something to admire.

Even now the saudis are trying to run Aramco without american help, and they are far from succeeding on that front. For all the free PhDs that the saudis paid for over the past few decades, none of that has come back in the form of a competent local engineering workforce.


Not so easy, my friend, lots of countries sit on oil - venezuela, nigeria. Congo sits on diamonds and many valuable minerals. none of them made this transition. They havent blown any money - they developed country infrastructure so well that thousands of westerners stand in line to get their visas to work - not to mention millions of Indians - how did we do with our infrastructure ?. They have huge sovereign wealth funds and this is in addition to trillions of dollars of wealth royalty has . if you want success yourself you need to learn to respect success of others. You are overestimating value of engineering and underestimating nation building skills.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 12 Nov 2017 23:39

KiranA: They have huge sovereign wealth funds and this is in addition to trillions of dollars of wealth royalty has . if you want success yourself you need to learn to respect success of others. You are overestimating value of engineering and underestimating nation building skills.


That is not entirely correct these days, as KSA sovereign funds are not doing so well these days -- they are a bit overdrawn, as it came out after the recent crash on oil prices. I think you have a non-standard view of success -- after 50 years of free money acquired from oil, if the KSA economy cannot run without a competent foreign workforce, all that the king has done is spent money without improving the quality of local human resources -- that is not all that difficult, if you can hire competent people to invest your money wisely....Something that the average citizen in the USA does for retirement planning these days.


Comparisons to Venezuela, Nigeria, and Congo just indicate that is possible to do even worse than the saudis, without a doubt. Not to mention that none of these countries have the benefit of a stable royal clan taking control of things, which explains the extreme instability that accompanies power struggles between gangs of powerful warlords/criminals/military generals (all of these countries, including KSA, are kleptocracies).

MBS's own actions now only indicate that there is nothing to stop KSA from reaching the levels of instability of Venezuela or Congo, except for powerful backers of the KSA regime who have a lot to lose themselves if KSA becomes unstable.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 12 Nov 2017 23:50

periaswamy wrote:
KiranA: They have huge sovereign wealth funds and this is in addition to trillions of dollars of wealth royalty has . if you want success yourself you need to learn to respect success of others. You are overestimating value of engineering and underestimating nation building skills.


That is not entirely correct these days, as KSA sovereign funds are not doing so well these days -- they are a bit overdrawn, as it came out after the recent crash on oil prices. I think you have a non-standard view of success -- after 50 years of free money acquired from oil, if the KSA economy cannot run without a competent foreign workforce, all that the king has done is spent money without improving the quality of local human resources -- that is not all that difficult, if you can hire competent people to invest your money wisely....Something that the average citizen in the USA does for retirement planning these days.


Comparisons to Venezuela, Nigeria, and Congo just indicate that is possible to do even worse than the saudis, without a doubt. Not to mention that none of these countries have the benefit of a stable royal clan taking control of things, which explains the extreme instability that accompanies power struggles between gangs of powerful warlords/criminals/military generals (all of these countries, including KSA, are kleptocracies).

MBS's own actions now only indicate that there is nothing to stop KSA from reaching the levels of instability of Venezuela or Congo, except for powerful backers of the KSA regime who have a lot to lose themselves if KSA becomes unstable.


No - I just happen to have a clear view on their success. You really think money is free ? Iran has excellent oil resources but they consistently failed to leverage it - they drafted poor agreements , handled brits and americans poorly and generally ended up with wrong side of deals. Saudis on other hand had excellent vision, drafted fantstic agreements, displayed enough generosity, controlled infighting that such stupendous wealth results.

KSA socerign fund not doing "well" is like saying apple stock fell by 2% today . They are are doing very well all set to increase , they take professional counsel and invest with discipline. And dont forget the soverign fund is owned by saudi state - they royals belong to "house of saud" which has trillions of dollars of its own wealth.

BTW saudi royal clan is neither that old nor so stable - they came to power only in early 1900s. They are brilliant statesmen.
KSA is monarcy - and what do you mean kleptocracy ? the Saudi royals worked for their people and made them immensely rich - is that not the job of any ruler ?
Last edited by kiranA on 12 Nov 2017 23:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 12 Nov 2017 23:54

Regarding saudi's not having their own workforce - there re some cultural issues there . Arabs dont like physical work. But instead of forcing reservations and taking false prestige they recognize it and generously pay foreign talent to run the show. But they do watch them like hawks and dont get taken for a ride. They need to work on it i agree but its a small blip on an overall stupendous success story.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Nov 2017 01:10

No more stupendous than someone winning a lottery and spending like it's going out of style. After 70+ years of unbelievable prosperity, they remain a backward bunch of bozos riding in Lamborghinis. I think Indians should exit, a weakened KSA is an irresistible target for their friendly neighbors to loot.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 02:19

Saudi Arabia's economic troubles

The saudis can take their money and shove it. There are other alternatives to saudi oil, and GoI has already gone in that direction. One of many recent articles pointing out Saudi Arabia's weakened economic position after the crash in oil prices.

How did Saudi Arabia get to the point where it lacks the wealth to basically subsidize its entire society? Call the wound “self-inflicted.”


Even after all that free money from the oil under their butts for decades, and without doing a honest day's work, and paying everyone else to extract and sell the oil, the saudi fools still cannot get their act together economically. They were just one oil crash away from a ballooning deficit.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Nov 2017 02:51

periaswamy wrote:
That is not entirely correct these days, as KSA sovereign funds are not doing so well these days -- they are a bit overdrawn, as it came out after the recent crash on oil prices. I think you have a non-standard view of success -- after 50 years of free money acquired from oil, if the KSA economy cannot run without a competent foreign workforce, all that the king has done is spent money without improving the quality of local human resources -- that is not all that difficult, if you can hire competent people to invest your money wisely....Something that the average citizen in the USA does for retirement planning these days.


Comparisons to Venezuela, Nigeria, and Congo just indicate that is possible to do even worse than the saudis, without a doubt. Not to mention that none of these countries have the benefit of a stable royal clan taking control of things, which explains the extreme instability that accompanies power struggles between gangs of powerful warlords/criminals/military generals (all of these countries, including KSA, are kleptocracies).

MBS's own actions now only indicate that there is nothing to stop KSA from reaching the levels of instability of Venezuela or Congo, except for powerful backers of the KSA regime who have a lot to lose themselves if KSA becomes unstable.

Spot on, we must not forget the roles of these countries in funding and sponsoring pakistani, while treating Indians and indian populace as khadims

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Nov 2017 03:02

kiranA wrote:BTW saudi royal clan is neither that old nor so stable - they came to power only in early 1900s. They are brilliant statesmen.
KSA is monarcy - and what do you mean kleptocracy ? the Saudi royals worked for their people and made them immensely rich - is that not the job of any ruler ?

really!! made them rich by gifting them the oil in the fields the already had....their richness is simply because of their oil wealth.
We are yet to see any statesmanship, except buying off countries with oil and oil money.
Nation building entails promoting state, enabling holistic development of state, its institutions, and people. Everything there stems from Islam and oil/oil money.
Any other industry they can speak of ? With the money, they could have opened hundreds of hospitals and universities for the whole world not just for the region to ensure a scientific development. Even small and poor Israel managed to do that (with US money and support of course, but they had their own money and US support, albeit not at the same level). In the areas of their strength, i.e., oil, even today they rely on global majors for exploration and rigging. UAE has been able to create environment for broader industries. They are turning a leaf today, but that is because that they have realized that the age of oil is on its last legs. 20 years down the line oil usage may take a dip and this is after 70 years. I see you saying that they have done better than India. India had much lesser resources and much larger population.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Kakkaji » 13 Nov 2017 07:10

ramana wrote:Which Mohammad?
That Bandasura has codified every repugnant atrocity as a religious practice

Such a human can't be for he is so vile that he is incarnation of Satan if he existed.


That was the theme of 'Satanic Verses' by Salman Rushdie.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby atma » 13 Nov 2017 08:08

kiranA wrote:KSA socerign fund not doing "well" is like saying apple stock fell by 2% today . They are are doing very well all set to increase , they take professional counsel and invest with discipline. And dont forget the soverign fund is owned by saudi state - they royals belong to "house of saud" which has trillions of dollars of its own wealth.

BTW saudi royal clan is neither that old nor so stable - they came to power only in early 1900s. They are brilliant statesmen.
KSA is monarcy - and what do you mean kleptocracy ? the Saudi royals worked for their people and made them immensely rich - is that not the job of any ruler ?


Hardly Statesmen by any definition, neither modern nor platonic. Trillions do not make statesmen . Most of the Saudi populace detest them, especially the residents of the Oil rich Eastern province, Ishmaili Shias of Najaran, and the Asiris. The rest of the Arab world regard them as usurpers of the Hashemite rule over the Hejaz, and the shrines of Makkah and Medinah. As soon as the Saudis are toppled, with or without US complicity (more likely), the Trillions will disappear.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 13 Nov 2017 08:29

kiranA, you are defending the indefensible.

The Al Saud family is not a 'nation builder'. They are personal-wealth builders. The Institutions that they created are to further their family's wealth, power, and hold on the people. True, they built glistening airports, universities, ports, hospitals, roads, hotels, palaces etc. If this is a 'stupendous success story', it is temporal because these would last only so long as fossil fuel lasts or fossil fuels enjoy currency. But, of what use? These are all managed and made to function by expatriate workers alone. University teachers are mostly foreign. Saudiization efforts have come a cropper since the 1980s. Their armed forces are incapable of fighting a war. No Saudi wants to bend his (women are excluded from workforce anyway) back. It is *NOT* a cultural thing as you say because they were hardy tribes till less than a century back.

You cannot claim that "the Saudi royals worked for their people and made them immensely rich". They did not work towards that. The Al Saud family, since its early times of rise from Ar Diriyyah, employed techniques such as pleasing tribes through concessions, marriage etc in order to further their power. Distributing a part of the 'easy money that came to them Providentially' to keep the people happy and legitimize the King was a no-brainer. Did they consider that as national income, national wealth that needed to be purposefully employed to further national interests? No, not at all. There is no worthwhile alternative income generation scheme in the Kingdom. By buying off people, the monarchy made life easy for them and made them lazy. That's why the hardy tribes are today hardly able to work.

This is what MBS is trying to reverse, finding an alternate source of income, through his Vision 2030 and the NEOM project. But, the project is based on many imponderables, such as a successful Aramco divestment, peace in the region, the liberalization of the society and most of all the continuation in power of MBS himself. MBS recognizes that NEOM wouldn't take off unless he liberalizes the society and eliminates the stranglehold of the clerics which flows from the covenant between Mohammed ibn Saud and the refugee cleric Mohammed ibn Abd-al Wahab in the 18th century. All of the imponderables are in grave doubt at this stage. MBS himself is moving the region precipitously to war, a war he cannot win with his ragtag armed forces, unless he gets extensive support from the US. Even then, it would be catastrophic and set the Kindom back by decades. Iran is no pushover. And, his Yemen (mis)adventure does not inspire confidence.

That's why I think that MBS is good for India for the core thing that he wants to achieve for KSA because if he succeeded it would benefit us in many ways,elimination of wahhabi-induced jihadism, more economic opportunities, more open society in West Asia which will all have trickle down influence over other Kingdoms in the region amplifying our benefits. But, can he make it?

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 13 Nov 2017 09:02

SSridhar wrote:kiranA, you are defending the indefensible.

The Al Saud family is not a 'nation builder'. They are personal-wealth builders. The Institutions that they created are to further their family's wealth, power, and hold on the people. True, they built glistening airports, universities, ports, hospitals, roads, hotels, palaces etc. If this is a 'stupendous success story', it is temporal because these would last only so long as fossil fuel lasts or fossil fuels enjoy currency. But, of what use? These are all managed and made to function by expatriate workers alone. University teachers are mostly foreign. Saudiization efforts have come a cropper since the 1980s. Their armed forces are incapable of fighting a war. No Saudi wants to bend his (women are excluded from workforce anyway) back. It is *NOT* a cultural thing as you say because they were hardy tribes till less than a century back.

You cannot claim that "the Saudi royals worked for their people and made them immensely rich". They did not work towards that. The Al Saud family, since its early times of rise from Ar Diriyyah, employed techniques such as pleasing tribes through concessions, marriage etc in order to further their power. Distributing a part of the 'easy money that came to them Providentially' to keep the people happy and legitimize the King was a no-brainer. Did they consider that as national income, national wealth that needed to be purposefully employed to further national interests? No, not at all. There is no worthwhile alternative income generation scheme in the Kingdom. By buying off people, the monarchy made life easy for them and made them lazy. That's why the hardy tribes are today hardly able to work.

This is what MBS is trying to reverse, finding an alternate source of income, through his Vision 2030 and the NEOM project. But, the project is based on many imponderables, such as a successful Aramco divestment, peace in the region, the liberalization of the society and most of all the continuation in power of MBS himself. MBS recognizes that NEOM wouldn't take off unless he liberalizes the society and eliminates the stranglehold of the clerics which flows from the covenant between Mohammed ibn Saud and the refugee cleric Mohammed ibn Abd-al Wahab in the 18th century. All of the imponderables are in grave doubt at this stage. MBS himself is moving the region precipitously to war, a war he cannot win with his ragtag armed forces, unless he gets extensive support from the US. Even then, it would be catastrophic and set the Kindom back by decades. Iran is no pushover. And, his Yemen (mis)adventure does not inspire confidence.

That's why I think that MBS is good for India for the core thing that he wants to achieve for KSA because if he succeeded it would benefit us in many ways,elimination of wahhabi-induced jihadism, more economic opportunities, more open society in West Asia which will all have trickle down influence over other Kingdoms in the region amplifying our benefits. But, can he make it?


I am not sure what is proper nation to you. But from where I see - Saudi is in every parameter a modern sophisticated nation. Its credit rating is A or AA depending on agency - its banking system is sophisticated. Its shipping company is one of the worlds largest. Its stock exchange market cap is $500 billion and aramco is not even listed. Recollect saudis are only 20 million or so. Its has one of the worlds largest chemicals and plastic company SABIC.

Things were not that easy for saudis up to 1938 ( I think) they struggled but kept the nation. Ibn Saud in my book is better unificator than Bismark of germany. Unfortunately most desi do not have any respect for non-european people acheviements.

We can agree to disagree on work culture - UAE runs primarily on non - oil (Dubai) but there too you dont see emiratis wearing hard hats and directing efforts. They prefer management.

Yes Saudis do have problems - I never said it is paradise. But all solutions to saudi apart from monarchy are even more dangerous. Most saudis who oppose royals do so because they think royals are less religious not more. India's benefits lie in monarchy strengthening itself.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 09:25

KiranA: I am not sure what is proper nation to you. But from where I see - Saudi is in every parameter a modern sophisticated nation. Its credit rating is A or AA depending on agency - its banking system is sophisticated.


Money does not equal "sophistication" -- one would have to be spectacularly naive to pretend that some person (or nation state in this case) having money makes a person sophisticated. Given your ridiculous "we'll agree to disagree" nonsense, it is clear that you are not just defending the indefensible out of ignorance at this point, but just being pigheaded in sticking to whatever your opinion is. Even after you have been informed of the facts.

As the man said, "you are entitled to your opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts". The facts are that KSA has failed in almost every parameter of development of its citizens...all that KSA has achieved is a populace that has become dependent on the enormous welfare checks that were handed to them for decades to keep them docile and not get in the way of the thievery of the House of Saud. That much is clear to anyone who has a clue of the history of KSA.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby deejay » 13 Nov 2017 09:28

Hariri did an interview yesterdin, from Saudi Arabia.

Some interesting tweets:

https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/929795354027053056
Question is who's this & what is he instructing #SaadHariri? #SaudiArabia

Image

https://twitter.com/Zinvor/status/929798170292506625
Saad Hariri looks tired, broken & possibly drugged. Look at the way he looks to the side during the interview & tell me this man has free will to not spew what Saudis are telling him.

Video with the above tweet.

Essentially,Hariri has said Syrians want to kill him. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-regime-wants-dead-saad-hariri-saudi-arabia/

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby deejay » 13 Nov 2017 09:30

In line with Hariri but in other news and why I think all this connects more to Syria than anything else:

https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/929816964784181248

Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, who is known as the man who destroyed Syria , main founder of ISIS and HTS is apparently arrested by Bin Silman


Image

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 09:41

So if Bandar Bin Sultan, who is tight with the US, helped the US create trouble for syria, is now arrested by MBS -- then MBS himself is not necessarily averse to ISIS or for making trouble in Syria. Don't see how MBS's claim to be the great reformer is being taken seriously, since his actions so far indicate nothing of that sort. The clergy who were under MBS's father are still in control -- the only clergy who were eliminated were the "moderate" ones who would ostensibly be the ones MBS would have supported if he was a reformer, but he did not do that.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Y. Kanan » 13 Nov 2017 09:48

kiranA wrote:It is US right who are biggest freinds of Saudis much much more than left. Anyway it doesnt matter - USA benifitted so much that right or left they all love saudi.


US right loves Saudi thanks to oil, bases, defense deals and other practical considerations.

US left loves Saudi because they have decided they love Islam now (so has the entire political "left" worldwide).

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 13 Nov 2017 09:50

periaswamy wrote:
KiranA: I am not sure what is proper nation to you. But from where I see - Saudi is in every parameter a modern sophisticated nation. Its credit rating is A or AA depending on agency - its banking system is sophisticated.


Money does not equal "sophistication" -- one would have to be spectacularly naive to pretend that some person (or nation state in this case) having money makes a person sophisticated. Given your ridiculous "we'll agree to disagree" nonsense, it is clear that you are not just defending the indefensible out of ignorance at this point, but just being pigheaded in sticking to whatever your opinion is. Even after you have been informed of the facts.

As the man said, "you are entitled to your opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts". The facts are that KSA has failed in almost every parameter of development of its citizens...all that KSA has achieved is a populace that has become dependent on the enormous welfare checks that were handed to them for decades to keep them docile and not get in the way of the thievery of the House of Saud. That much is clear to anyone who has a clue of the history of KSA.


what I say is nonsense but your mindless rantings are facts ? what fact have you ever uttered here apart from attacking the populace of saudi as "dependent" - is that a fact or opinion? at least learn to argue politely. I presented ton of facts and not a single post of me has been without referring to appropriate measured parameters.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 09:59

KiranA: what I say is nonsense but your mindless rantings are facts ? what fact have you ever uttered here apart from attacking the populace of saudi as "dependent"



If you are going to be a pigheaded and ignore reality, it does not matter if you state your opinions "politely" -- in fact, it would better if you skip the politeness and bothered to back up your claims with evidence, which you have not done so far.

Did you even bother to read the link posted before? That is just one of many articles that explains the saudi welfare state and how it has suffered due to low oil prices.

If you cannot be bothered to pay attention to the details and rationally work through thing, then your intent is to just troll this thread because you have nothing better to do.

I presented ton of facts and not a single post of me has been without referring to appropriate measured parameters.

:rotfl: ton of facts, it seems. Here are some links for you to read up.

poverty and inequality in KSA

more details on Saudi welfare program

More welfare programs for "select" people (while removing welfare for the rest of the population

if you can be bothered to do a web search on "saudi arabia welfare state", you could have saved everyone the pain of wading through your nonsense.
Last edited by periaswamy on 13 Nov 2017 10:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kiranA » 13 Nov 2017 10:03

Every welfare state will have problems that doesnt make them less of nations or failures. yeah right keep using rolling emoticons - makes you feel "sophisticated" I suppose unlike the Saudis who actually bankroll a significant part of the world.

PS : I saw the links you added. Apparently unlike more serious posters Ssridhar you cant get to summarize themselves and show off by posting these links. Those are news articles, Sir. Not parameters based on which nations are graded. How can decent hardworking saudi be poor ? they have free healthcare, free education, interest free loans, subsidized food, practically zero utilities. yes there will be some lazy asses or mentally sick people there who still spend more than they can earn. That does not define the nation - you find tons of people everywhere.

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Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby periaswamy » 13 Nov 2017 10:10

KiranA: Every welfare state will have problems that doesnt make them less of nations or failures. yeah right keep using rolling emoticons - makes you feel "sophisticated" I suppose unlike the Saudis who actually bankroll a significant part of the world.


So let's get this straight, KSA is "stupendous" because it has developed marvelously and is a sight to behold because of shiny air ports, a AAAA+ credit rating and tall shiny pointy buildings and Rolex watch outlets in every corner --- KSA being a welfare state and having no local competence in any area, whose citizens have lived on royal handouts for many decades is just a minor detail. Did I cover your deep thoughts on KSA adequately?

Sounds very much like the semi-legend "50% robin hood" whose slogan "steals from the rich, but has not yet given to the poor" was semi-popular. Also sounds very much like Tiananmen square massacre, or "woodstock with chinese characteristics" as we like to call it: "young people singing and dancing and resisting authority for peace and love....at least, until the tanks rolled in and the PLA put a bullet in their heads"
Last edited by periaswamy on 13 Nov 2017 10:15, edited 3 times in total.


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