Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23841
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 17 Nov 2017 17:08

Saudi Arabia striking deals with people detained in anti-graft purge - Reuters
Saudi authorities are striking agreements with some of those detained in an anti-corruption crackdown, asking them to hand over assets and cash in return for their freedom, sources familiar with the matter said.

The deals involve separating cash from assets like property and shares, and looking at bank accounts to assess cash values, one of the sources told Reuters.

One businessman had tens of millions of Saudi riyals withdrawn from his account after he signed. In another case, a former senior official consented to hand over ownership of four billion riyals worth of shares, the source said.

The Saudi government earlier this week moved from freezing accounts to issuing instructions for "expropriation of unencumbered assets" or seizure of assets, said a second source familiar with the situation

There was no immediate comment from the Saudi government on the deals.

Dozens of princes, senior officials and businessmen, including cabinet ministers and billionaires, have been detained in the inquiry at least partly aimed at strengthening the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.


Such deals show lack of a formal juridical system in KSA. It is all whimsical and as per convenience, all masquerading as shariat.

Apparently, these deals involve small fries.

The princes would not be treated like this. Their goose is cooked unless something extraordinary happens.

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Peregrine » 18 Nov 2017 00:30

Saudi King Salman to step down next week: report

Saudi monarch King Salman is set to step down and announce his son Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman as his successor next week, sources said.

The 81-year-old king will continue as a ceremonial figurehead, handing over official leadership of the country to his son — often referred to as MBS, the Daily Mail quoted royal sources as saying.

The move is seen as the final step in the 32-year-old bin Salman’s power grab, which began earlier this month with the arrests of over 40 princes and government ministers in a corruption probe.

“Unless something dramatic happens, King Salman will announce the appointment of MBS as King of Saudi Arabia next week,” the sources said. “King Salman will play the role of the queen of England. He will only keep the title ‘Custodian of the Holy Shrines’.”

The source went on to claim that once crowned king, the prince will shift his focus to Iran, a long standing rival oil empire to Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, with fears military action is possible. He will also enlist the help of the Israeli military to crush Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia supported by Iran, according to the source.

“MBS is convinced that he has to hit Iran and Hezbollah,” he said. “Contrary to the advice of the royal family elders, that’s MBS’s next target. Hence why the ruler of Kuwait privately calls him ‘The raging Bull’.”

“MBS’s plan is to start the fire in Lebanon, but he’s hoping to count on Israeli military backing.
He has already promised Israel billions of dollars in direct financial aid if they agree. MBS cannot confront Hezbollah in Lebanon without Israel. Plan B is to fight Hezbollah in Syria,’ said the source.

Tensions have been rising between Saudi Arabia and Iran after the Saudi government blamed Iran for a foiled missile attack near Riyadh on November 4. The rocket was fired from neighboring Yemen and was heading towards the Saudi capital before it was shot down. The Saudi foreign minister, Adel Jubair, said Iran was responsible and called the attack ‘an act of war’.

‘Salman not to relinquish throne’

Meanwhile, another senior Saudi official dismissed the mounting speculation that the crown prince will soon ascend to the throne. “There is no possibility whatsoever that the king will abdicate,” Bloomberg quoted the unnamed official as saying.

Saudi kings usually stay in power even when bad health prevents them from carrying out their job, the official said on condition of anonymity. He noted the example of King Fahd, who stayed on as monarch until his death in 2005 despite being gravely ill in the last few years of his reign.

Cheers Image

nvishal
BRFite
Posts: 832
Joined: 14 Aug 2010 18:03

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby nvishal » 14 Mar 2018 00:46

Image

Sheikha Latifa Mohammed Al Maktoum,
daughter of the ruler of Dubai and Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

...claimed she was being tortured, beaten and confined by her parents. She escaped and bordered a USS vessel to land in Mumbai and then to go to the US and request asylum.

Boat was intercepted by unknown people 50kms of Goa coast.

Image

details here

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/stirling- ... ai-2444740

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/stirling- ... ed-2443209

Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2281
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Manish_P » 10 Apr 2018 10:46

Former spy wants FBI to investigate raid to snatch Dubai princess

Herve Jaubert, who earned the sobriquet 'French 007' after a thrilling escape from Dubai in 2008, spoke to mid-day from his current location in London, following his ordeal aboard the yacht, Nostromo. Jaubert, a Florida resident, had attempted to bring Sheikha Latifa, daughter of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, ruler of Dubai, to a Western country, after the Sheikha said she was being abused and tortured in the UAE.


Jaubert talks about the aborted escape attempt and points a finger at India, who, he says, was complicit in a criminal conspiracy.


Tell us about the raid on board your yacht on March 4
Just before the attack, I noticed three vessels ghosting me on my radar. I was going at five knots, very slow. No boats go at five knots unless they are fishing boats, and I knew I was being followed. Then came the attack by two speedboats with six to eight armed men, with laser pointed assault rifles, the Israeli Tavor. Their faces were covered by helmets and masks. They ordered me to raise my hands and close my eyes or they would kill me. I had a gun put to my face, so I complied. I believed they were going to shoot me. They handcuffed me and beat me up. I felt a blow to my head and was pushed down to the floor in a pool of blood. They then shoved a rifle into my back. There was no warning, no warrant, no charges, no explanations, no questions, nothing, just unnecessary brutal force by thugs. They took over the boat. They went to Latifa's cabin and told her: "Come on Latifa, let's go home." They grabbed her while she was screaming that she would rather be killed on the boat than go back to the UAE. She claimed political asylum, but they ignored it. Then people from the UAE boarded the ship. There were about 10 at least, some were crew and captain, the others were definitely special forces, not a private contractor.

How did you know that the Indian coast guards had boarded your boat, and how specifically were you targeted?
I noticed on my radar a surveillance plane which circled above the yacht, then returned to Mumbai. There was a radio chat with patrol boats and a plane and I knew they were after me. My radar indicated the ID number of the plane: SAR CG 782, which means search and rescue coast guards number 782. At this point I was sure the Indian coast guards were looking for us. The next day, before the attack, there was another plane circling the boat. Then came the attack by speedboats and three coast guard warships. I saw two, the third was six miles behind. The two coast guards vessels had a huge marking on the side of the hull, which read 'Indian coast guards' and one had an ID number painted: 11

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7038
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby JE Menon » 10 Apr 2018 13:26

^^^Above kind of stuff is easily fabricatable, and except for the country allegedly involved, the details need not be changed - and, indeed, can be found in many third rate thriller novellas.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 02 Oct 2019 23:02

Folks we are not discussing the NSA visit to KSA today.
Its very significant it appears as West Asia is realigning itself.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3473
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Oct 2019 23:13

i was looking for the rogjt thread..i am quite sure it cant be for just cashmere. I suspect a confluence (coupling/decoupling) of the following factors
1. Cash-mere for India is obviuosly the face
[/speculation]
2. US led alliance and Iran confluence: Some thresholds have been silently crossed by attacks
3. Influence of china in ME (related to Iran)
4. The question of af-Pak:
a. US wants to get rid of troubles in af-pak to a more manageable, not complete to have no reason to be there
b. us doesnt want to get out of af-pak
c. enough of free money to pakis, to some extent propping up of India for china (Wink wink for PoK will earn a lot of goodwill with IFS chanakyas)
d. The fort khuzdar and the three planes that flew from pakiland to saudland is not independent but the question is did they take it all or some..
i have a strong suspciousn that paki toohs are nikke nikke ..not mega ..in the end it was gifted and gifts come with caveats..if USA is managing it would like big bums for big boys...
[/end speculation]
AD's meeting and SJs diplomatic blitzkreig are not in isolation for sure...

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3524
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Rudradev » 02 Oct 2019 23:20

And on the very same day:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/excl ... -with-Iran

EXCLUSIVE: Saudi Arabia gives 'green light' for talks with Iran
Official in Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's office confirms Baghdad has channels with both sides and is seeking to arrange meeting

Saudi Arabia has given a green light to Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to arrange a meeting with Iran as a first step towards de-escalating tensions in the region, Middle East Eye can reveal.

Abbas al-Hasnawi, an official in the prime minister's office, told MEE on Tuesday that Abdul Mahdi was mediating between the leaderships in Riyadh and Tehran and had communicated each side's conditions for talks to the other.

Hasnawi was speaking after a spokesperson for the Iranian government said on Monday that Saudi Arabia had sent messages to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani via “the leaders of some countries”.

Hasnawi confirmed to MEE that Abdul Mahdi was acting as an intermediary with the aim of easing tensions since attacks on Saudi oil facilities blamed on Iran earlier this month appeared to have tilted the Gulf rivals closer to open conflict.

The Iraqi leadership has channels with both sides. Our Sunni brothers [in the government] liaise with the Saudis and our Shia brothers with the Iranians," he said.

"The Saudis have conditions before the negotiations process starts and the same with Iranians. We have liaised these conditions to each side. It is not an easy task to get together two opposite sides in terms of their ideology, sect and their alliances in the region."

Hasnawi said Abdul Mahdi had called for a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Iran which the Iraqi government would supervise and mediate, with Baghdad as its preferred venue.

"The Saudis have given the green light in this matter, and Mr Abdul Mahdi is working on it," said Hasnawi, adding that Saudi Arabia, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, had "calmed their rhetoric" in recent days.

Abdul Mahdi was last week in Jeddah for talks with the Saudi crown prince.

Hasnawi said that the US government had also approved negotiations between the two sides. Falih Alfayyadh, Iraq's advisor for national security, is currently in Washington to discuss a timeline for the meetings, he added.

"If there will be a potential deal in the region that includes Yemen, Syria and Iraq, the Americans have no problem with that," Hasnawi said.



ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 02 Oct 2019 23:44

We had a Saud family tree in the Forum many years ago..
If someone finds an updated version please post here.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 02 Oct 2019 23:52

RajeshA wrote:
shyamd wrote:I wouldn't like our soldiers to be fighting in a war that is not in our interests. We are not mercenaries.

Exactly, it is a question of how we define our interests.

I gave a scenario in the pdf, where the House of Sauds becomes one of the cornerstones of our national interest.


Take a bow. Rajesh A.
Its happening now as we speak. Nine years after the fact.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5786
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby vishvak » 03 Oct 2019 00:01

Why can't we invest 100 billion $$ in Iraq - with fair terms ie no influencing or religious interference. No outside ideological flexing idhar kaa udhar. We got investments in other countries too why can't make it an official policy. Better still make foreign investments from fundoo and pseudo-lefty and such places only through free floating monetize d instruments subjected to harsh realities of international trade - that are in parts influenced by very same fundoo or pseudo-lefty players.

Added: make investments from fundoo and pseudo-lefty through limited period offer s monetized instruments after which it could be bought off by good guys onlee (not pseudoplayer, environment protection wala, poor and economic ally needy) etc.
Last edited by vishvak on 03 Oct 2019 00:28, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2019 00:04

ramana wrote:If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 8) 8) 8)

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2019 00:08

RajeshA wrote:Cross-posting

I think it is time for MAD to do some tactical aggression on Pakistan. Put pressure on Pakistan, be it on the LoC, or on the sea, for example for kidnapping our fishermen. Sink a Paki naval ship or two.

Make it known to the Saudis-Emiratis-Qataris that if they want their Paki mercenary force for Yemen, they would have to pay India more than they pay those mercenaries. Take a steep price.

Secondly if Pakistan goes into Yemen, India should see to it, that all those Pakis meet their Keema-Pressers as soon as possible with maximum publicity. India should help Houthis with some form of SAM, be it Akash or something else. After all if the Houthis can hold back the Sunni onslaught, then that would be excellent publicity for our weapon systems, and would let the Sunnis know that they can't ignore India.

We need to be in this war, without dragging Republic of India's good name too much into it. This is where the need for some mercenary force or proxies shows up!

I think a Zaidi nation (Shi'a but a little different) at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula would be excellent for India and keeping Saudis in check! We need some way of putting direct pressure on them as well.


Looks like this was the most valuable thread in BRF that went dormant due to the noise in the forum!!!!

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2019 00:23

ramana wrote:Despite all the above, KSA under King Salman is new entitiy.

By dismissing the old Ibn Saud line of succession which the previous Crown Prince represents, and appointing his own nephew as CP and own son as Dy CP and Defense Minister he has created a new dynastic line. This supersedes or sets aside ~2000 other Princes of various pecking order.

Ibn Saud had 43 sons and many daughters. However the dynasty is the preserve of the Suderi line. Suderi is the the daughter of the Wahabi mullah who supported Ibn Saud when he was only the Chief of Nejd.

How many of the original seven (7) Suderies are still alive?

Next point the Shiite revolution, Arab Spring, , all people rights color revolution all spring from modernism where people are overthrowing minority rulers and seeking majority rule..
We see this all over the world End of Apartheid, Collapse of Soviet Union, German reunification, rise of Iraqi Shia state etc.

So the Shia protest in Arab lands should be seen in context. The boundaries are Sykes-Picot and nothing to do with Ottoman collapse.

We had Arab-Israel(state vs. state), Arab-Persian/Iran(people) now Sunni-Shia.
In other words state vs. state confrontations gave way to people vs. people to now religious cult vs. religious cult.
its getting bigger. Why?
Its demographics and more importantly resources.
The smaller agglomerations were not sufficient. Hence its getting bigger and bigger.
To what purpose.

Islam rises in the vacuum created between exhausted states.
And with a patron.

Right now West led by US is getting exhausted and Soviet Russia based system has collapsed.

This Sunni coalition could overcome the Persians and occupy West Asia.
This is what happened in 630 AD.
Bothe Byzantium and Sassnians exhausted themselves. And Islam filled the breach.
India could not support any side then and got subject to Islam horde once Sunni power consolidated in West Asia.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5786
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby vishvak » 03 Oct 2019 00:34

Arab Spring, , all people rights color revolution all spring from modernism where people are overthrowing minority rulers and seeking majority rule..

Isn't this overthrowing minority for majority rule contradiction to modernism. I heard today that Jordan's king is descendant of religious pubah. What kind of bs goes on in this world where people from all over come to lecture India on secularism.

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 725
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Atmavik » 03 Oct 2019 00:47

vishvak wrote:
Arab Spring, , all people rights color revolution all spring from modernism where people are overthrowing minority rulers and seeking majority rule..

Isn't this overthrowing minority for majority rule contradiction to modernism. I heard today that Jordan's king is descendant of religious pubah. What kind of bs goes on in this world where people from all over come to lecture India on secularism.


Jordon is the last Hashemite kingdom. Iraq was another one before being overthrown by saddam.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3473
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ArjunPandit » 03 Oct 2019 01:22

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:If Saudis get defeated in Yemen they will no longer provide threat to India.


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 8) 8) 8)

i think we are getting overexcited..this is just one battle which they lost..uncle has invested so much in it that they will not give up so easily. saud coffers are still full. While they cant fight themselves... talks may be a sign of weakening..or may be you are seeing something which i have missed...

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2019 01:56

viewtopic.php?p=2229086#p2229086

ramana wrote:Sure go ahead and explore those nejd vs hejaz conflicts. However be wary for those could be masked by Arabs vs Persians conflicts which are much older....
Meanwhile House of Saud

Image

Please print out and start putting and x on those in prison.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 04 Oct 2019 05:39

ramana wrote:For completeness.......
The U.S.-Saudi Royal Rumble
by SIMON HENDERSON, foreignpolicy.com
November 1st 2013

What is happening to the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia? Even after loud complaints from top Saudi officials that the longtime alliance was on the rocks, the response of official Washington, outside the punditocracy, was an almost audible yawn.

President Barack Obama's administration should not be so quick to dismiss the trouble the Saudis could cause for the United States in the Middle East -- or the Saudi royals' determination to cause a shift in U.S. policy. Two articles last month quoted unidentified "European diplomats" who had been briefed by Saudi intelligence maestro Prince Bandar bin Sultan that Riyadh was so upset with Washington that it was undertaking a "major shift" in relations.

Saudi Arabia has a litany of complaints about U.S. policy in the Middle East. It faults Washington for pursuing a rapprochement with Iran, for not pushing Israel harder in peace talks with the Palestinians, and for not more forcefully backing efforts to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Saudi royals are also angry that the United States did not stand behind Saudi support for Bahrain when it crushed an anti-government uprising in 2011, and that Washington has criticized the new Egyptian government, another Saudi ally, for its crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood protesters.

Saudi royals have evidently decided that public comments and policy shifts are the only way to convince Washington to alter what they see as its errant path. Bandar's declaration came a few days after the kingdom abruptly decided to reject its election to the U.N. Security Council, claiming it could not tolerate that body's "double standards." As Bandar helpfully pointed out, the incident was "a message for the U.S., not the U.N."

According to an official in Washington, Bandar's "briefing" was actually a several hour conversation with French Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Bertrand Besancenot, who then shared his notes with his European colleagues. Whether Bandar intended to leak his remarks to the media is unclear but the Saudis haven't done anything to wind back his message. Last week, former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal made many of the same points in an address to the annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference in Washington.

It is hard to judge the significance of Prince Turki's remarks, because he was essentially fired as ambassador to Washington in 2007 after falling out with King Abdullah. With a nod toward candor, he made it clear he doesn't have a role in the Saudi government and claimed not to be privy to its official deliberations. However, given his apparent place on the kingdom's limited bench of officials that can explain its stances to the world, Prince Turki's remarks can't be ignored. As he put it, Saudi Arabia "is a peninsula, not an island."

This is far from the first crisis the U.S.-Saudi alliance has experienced. In early 1939, a Saudi delegation went to Nazi Germany to negotiate an arms agreement, part of which would have been diverted to Palestinian Arabs fighting Jewish immigrants in the British mandate of Palestine. At least some of the Saudi group met Adolf Hitler at his mountain top hideaway at Berchtesgaden.

German arms never reached the kingdom -- or Palestine - as the Saudis could not afford to consummate the deal (that was in the days before the oil revenues started flowing in). However, King Abdullah still treasures a dagger given as a gift from the Fuhrer himself, and occasionally shows it off to guests. Visiting U.S. officials are briefed in advance so they can display appropriate diplomatic sang-froid if Abdullah points out the memento.

But despite the multitude of crises -- from the 9/11 hijackers to Saudi pay-offs to Osama bin Laden -- past difficulties have been quietly repaired. The operative word here is "quietly" -- usually, the general public has not even known of the crisis. The difference now is that, through Saudi Arabia's move at the United Nations and Bandar's briefing, the kingdom is all but trumpeting its displeasure.

Assuming that the Saudi-U.S. relationship is really heading off course, what could go wrong this time? Here are seven nightmare scenarios that should keep officials in the State Department and Pentagon up at night.

1. Saudi Arabia uses the oil weapon. The kingdom could cut back its production, which has been boosted to over 10 million barrels/day at Washington's request, to make up for the fall in Iranian exports caused by sanctions. Riyadh enjoys the revenues generated by higher production, but price hikes caused by tightening supply could more than compensate the kingdom. Meanwhile, a drop in supply will cause the price at the gas pump to spike in the United States -- endangering the economic recovery and having an almost immediate impact on domestic public opinion.

2. Saudi Arabia reaches out to Pakistan for nuclear-tipped missiles. Riyadh has long had an interest in Islamabad's nuclear program: The kingdom allegedly partially funded Pakistan's pursuit of a nuclear weapon. In 1999, then Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan was welcomed by Pakistani Premier Nawaz Sharif to the Kahuta plant, where Pakistan produces highly enriched uranium. After being overthrown by the military later the same year, Sharif is now back again as prime minister -- after spending years in exile in Saudi Arabia.

While Islamabad would not want to get in between Riyadh and Tehran, the arrangement could be financially lucrative. It would also help Pakistan out-flank India: If part of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal was in the kingdom, it would effectively make it immune from Indian attack.

Alternatively, the kingdom could declare the intention of building a uranium enrichment plant to match Iranian nuclear ambitions -- to which, in Riyadh's view, Washington appears to be acquiescing. As King Abdullah told senior U.S. diplomat Dennis Ross in April 2009, "If they get nuclear weapons, we will get nuclear weapons."

3. Riyadh helps kick the United States out of Bahrain. When Bahrain was rocked by protests in 2011, Saudi Arabia led an intervention by Gulf states to reinforce the royal family's grip on the throne. The Saudis have the leverage, therefore, to encourage Bahrain to force the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet to leave its headquarters in Manama, from which the United States projects power across the Persian Gulf.

It wouldn't be a hard sell: Hardline Bahraini royals are already fed up with American criticism of their domestic crackdown on Shiites protesting for more rights. But it would be a hard landing for U.S. power projection in the Middle East: The current arrangements for the Fifth Fleet would be hard to reproduce in any other Gulf sheikhdom. And it's not without some precedent. Riyadh forced the United States out of its own Prince Sultan air base 10 years ago.

4. The kingdom supplies new and dangerous weaponry to the Syrian rebels. The Saudis are already expanding their intervention against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, funneling money and arms to hardline Salafist groups across Syria. But they have so far heeded U.S. warnings not to supply the rebels with certain weapons -- most notably portable surface-to-air missile systems, which could not only bring down Assad's warplanes but also civilian airliners.

Saudi Arabia could potentially end its ban on sending rebel groups these weapons systems -- and obscure the origins of the missiles, to avoid direct blame for any of the havoc they cause.

5. The Saudis support a new intifada in the Palestinian territories. Riyadh has long been vocal about its frustrations with the lack of progress on an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. Palestine was the top reason given in the official Saudi statement rejecting the U.N. Security Council seat. The issue is also close to Abdullah's heart -- in 2001, he declined an invitation to Washington due to lack of U.S. pressure on Israel. What's more, Riyadh knows that playing the "Arab" card would be popular at home and across the region.

If Saudi Arabia truly feels that the prospect for a negotiated settlement is irreparably stalled, it could quietly empower violent forces in the West Bank that could launch attacks against Israeli forces and settlers -- fatally wounding the current mediation efforts led by Secretary of State John Kerry.

6. Riyadh boosts the military-led regime in Egypt. The House of Saud has already turned into one of Egypt's primary patrons, pledging $5 billion in assistance immediately after the military toppled former President Mohamed Morsy. Such support has allowed Egypt's new rulers to ignore Washington's threats that it would cut off aid due to the government's violent crackdown on protesters.

By deepening its support, Saudi Arabia could further undermine Washington's attempt to steer Cairo back toward democratic rule. As Cairo moves toward a referendum over a new constitution, as well as parliamentary and presidential elections, Gulf support could convince the generals to rig the votes against the Muslim Brotherhood, and violently crush any opposition to their rule.

7. Saudi Arabia presses for an "Islamic seat" on the U.N. Security Council. The kingdom has long voiced its discontent for the way power is doled out in the world's most important security body. The leaders of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a bloc of 57 member states designed to represent Muslim issues in global affairs, have called for such an "Islamic seat."

The United States and other veto-wielding countries, of course, can be counted on to oppose any effort that would diminish their power in the Security Council. But even if the Saudi plan fails, the kingdom could depict U.S. opposition as anti-Islamic. Such an effort would wreck America's image in the Middle East, and provide dangerous fodder for Sunni extremists already hostile to the United States.

Washington insiders will no doubt see any of these potential Saudi policies as self-defeating. However, it would be a mistake to ignore Riyadh's frustration: While Washington thinks it can call the Saudis' bluff, top officials in the kingdom also appear to believe that the United States is bluffing about its commitment to a range of decisions antagonistic to Saudi interests. The big difference is that the tension in the relationship is the No. 1 priority in Saudi Arabia -- but is way down near the bottom of the Obama administration's list of concerns.



Six year old post but quite a few have turned out real for different reasons.


1) Didn't happen. On the contrary MBS did his best to reduce oil prices till the Aramco refinery got hit.
2) Sort of happened after Balakot there is strong suspicion that pak nujkes were airlifted to KSA.
3) After Aramco refinery strike US is working on moving out of Bahrain.
4) Tried but Syria with Russian support got rid of ISIS pests.
5) Didn't happen
6) Egypt is still supported by KSA.
7) Didn't happen.

More importantly
1) no one saw Turkey and KSA would fallout and vie for leadership of Sunnis.
2) And that Saudis will get hurt badly by Houthis in Yemen.
3) And, and KSA would seek peace talks with Iran.

---
Instead of constant sniping at each other it could help I folks think of scenarios and put on paper so there is clarity in thinking.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Oct 2019 06:07

Riyadh forced the United States out of its own Prince Sultan air base 10 years ago.

Huh! I had noooo idea. Then why have Houthis not converted the base to a parking lot I wonder. May be coming soon.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 617
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby V_Raman » 04 Oct 2019 08:16

So the scenario predicted by an Indian in the early 1900s - I forget his name - that China+Islam vs India+West is coming true!

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23841
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby SSridhar » 04 Oct 2019 08:34

ramana wrote: . . . More importantly
1) no one saw Turkey and KSA would fallout and vie for leadership of Sunnis.

ramana, the Turks were never liked by the Arabs, much less the Saudis. There are many reasons.
  1. All the Caliphs (Rashidun, Ummayad & Abbassid) were directly related to Arab clan, the Qureishi (Koraishi) clan of the Prophet (PBUH). Even when in the second half of the Abbassid Caliph, when they had to flee to Cairo and establish the Caliphate there after the Mongol Hulagu Khan destroyed Baghdad, they were still nominal leaders of the Ummah. Until, the mantle was taken over by the Ottomans for the next four centuries. Though the Ottomans only nominally ruled the Arab lands from far away from Constantinople, they still had military presence there, especially Makkah which the Hashemite King, al Hussayn, disliked. How the British instigated the revolt and threw out the Ottoman Caliphate and established their influence in Arab Lands is a different story. The Emperor was Too Faraway to effectively rule.
  2. The ulema felt that the Ottoman Caliphate didn't follow the traditional Islamic practices, which of course were rooted in the Arab customs & practices. As the Ottomans began to implement political reforms, they were disliked in Arab lands even more. The Caliph lost all legitimacy, which was not there much anyway to start with among the Arabs because he was not from the Koraish tribe or related to the Prophet.
  3. The imposition of Turkish language on the Arabs was dissented, naturally. Even schools in Arabia had Turkish as the medium of instruction. The wearing of the 'fez' was made compulsory over any other headgear, again causing anger among the Arabs
  4. As the Middle Ages ended and along with it the Islamic period of Arab dominance and after a while the growing power of Christian Europe, the Islamists in Arabia etc. felt that it was all because of the Ottomans. The occupation of Egypt by Napoleon and other North African Ottoman states by the French made the Turks resort to reforms hoping that reforms would hold their Caliphate together, so much so that in the early 19th century Al Azhar had to issue a fatwa against these reforms. Clearly, the Pasha was moving away from traditional Islam and Al-Azhar had to emphasize that only the four established schools of thought alone mattered. Al Azhar said, 'ijtihad' or reformation was disallowed, which had been done after the last of the four schools, Hanbali, had been codified. The resentment in Arab lands was complete. Only the Central Asian Muslims (fighting the Christian Tsarist Russia) and the Indian Muslims (after the 1857 events) supported the Ottoman Caliph

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1817
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ldev » 05 Oct 2019 06:19

Turkish-Arab antipathy is mutual and is even seen on a day to day basis on the streets of Istanbul towards Arab tourists...and there are plenty of them in Turkey and are resented.

Turkish military help to Pakistan during the 1960s and 1970s was IMO as a result of both being members of CENTO. Nothing to do with Ummah. Turkey was very much a secular republic in those years. That has changed drastically under the present dispensation but society is polarized.....80 years of Ataturk's legacy has left about 50% of the population deeply secular. Any military cooperation today and going forward however will be based on the Ummah brotherhood as long as the present ruling party continues in power.

The schism between KSA and Turkey also relates to the backing of Wahabism vs MB respectively. The latter seen by the former monarchy as a threat to it's existence.

The visit of India's NSA and his 2 hour one-on-one meeting MBS is intriguing. As is the news that PM Modi may visit KSA towards the end of October on his second visit. What is happening?

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4043
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby KLNMurthy » 06 Oct 2019 03:48

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:For completeness.......



Six year old post but quite a few have turned out real for different reasons.


1) Didn't happen. On the contrary MBS did his best to reduce oil prices till the Aramco refinery got hit.
2) Sort of happened after Balakot there is strong suspicion that pak nujkes were airlifted to KSA.
3) After Aramco refinery strike US is working on moving out of Bahrain.
4) Tried but Syria with Russian support got rid of ISIS pests.
5) Didn't happen
6) Egypt is still supported by KSA.
7) Didn't happen.

More importantly
1) no one saw Turkey and KSA would fallout and vie for leadership of Sunnis.
2) And that Saudis will get hurt badly by Houthis in Yemen.
3) And, and KSA would seek peace talks with Iran.

---
Instead of constant sniping at each other it could help I folks think of scenarios and put on paper so there is clarity in thinking.


It reads like Saudi propaganda, if US doesn't do what Saudi wants, then Saudi "can" do this and that.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 08 Oct 2019 22:41

KLNM, It might as well be but look at the fact that 3/6 has been realised.

ldev, Yes NaMo visit in later Oct is scheduled.


We should track it here.

Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Rony » 26 Nov 2019 03:57

Saudi chemical giant SABIC bets big on India to create future tech products

Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC), the world’s third-largest chemical company, is betting big on India for research and development and future technology products. Special lightweight thermoplastic materials which are tougher than metal and used to protect electric vehicle batteries, replace heavy metallic structures in automobiles and make ophthalmic lenses and cell phones, are some of the innovations developed by the scientists and engineers at the SABIC Technology Centre in Bengaluru (STC-B).

The STC-B was established in 2013 with an initial investment of about $100 million and focuses on leveraging India’s research competencies. The facility spread across 45 acres employs around 300 scientists, engineers and designers. “More than 20 per cent of the 400 patents filed globally in the last 4 years, were contributed from India, said Rajeshwer Dongara, site head at STC-B. “SABIC is looking at India for its talent pool,” said Dongara.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8008
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Gerard » 07 Mar 2020 16:52

Saudis reportedly detain three royal princes over ‘coup plot’
Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, a brother of King Salman, and the monarch’s nephew Prince Mohammed bin Nayef were accused of treason and taken from their homes early Friday by black-clad royal guards, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 597
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby tandav » 07 Mar 2020 17:34

V_Raman wrote:So the scenario predicted by an Indian in the early 1900s - I forget his name - that China+Islam vs India+West is coming true!


This was AFAIK my analysis ~2005 in an earlier avatar on BR.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1579
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 07 Mar 2020 22:48

V_Raman wrote:So the scenario predicted by an Indian in the early 1900s - I forget his name - that China+Islam vs India+West is coming true!


Who was that? Any link or book suggestion would be appreciated.

China + Pak vs India + US makes sense. China + Islam is questionable.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Mar 2020 00:54

Has Putin hacked into the servers and saved another dictator from a SeeAyyeh coup? Erdogandoo now EmBeeEss? The guy arrested apparently got the SeeAyeh Medal of The Kiss Of Death or something like that. Straight from Bombeo, no less.

Confirmation:
Top Saudi royals ‘arrested for plotting with Americans against King,’ Western media say. What’s happening in oil-rich kingdom?
7 Mar, 2020 22:15 / Updated 56 minutes ago

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has had his relatives arrested for plotting a coup against him and King Salman with the help of “foreign powers, including the Americans,” Western media claim. RT asked Middle East analysts to weigh in.

Three senior members of the Saudi Royal family were arrested on Friday, several Western media outlets have reported, citing sources. The list of detainees includes prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew and former crown prince, and Nawaf bin Nayef, the younger half-brother of Prince Nayef, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has allegedly accused them of treason, namely “conducting contacts with foreign powers, including the Americans and others, to carry out a coup d’etat” against King Salman and his son, Reuters, which has also picked up the news, added, citing own sources.
Saudi game of thrones
While Western media is not above publishing unverified rumors about the ‘regimes’ they dislike, some of which have turned out to be utterly fake, there is no easy way to verify reports on the secretive world of Saudi court affairs. One has to bear in mind the possibility someone in Riyadh has purposefully fed the news to the media.
While the reports of the high-profile arrests have yet to be confirmed by Saudi Arabia, they wouldn’t be unprecedented.
However, what role the US played in the developments is an open question, Ruslan Mamedov, a Middle East analyst from the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a Moscow-based think tank, :mrgreen: believes. Especially since the aforementioned “Americans” have their own factions and players with different agendas, just like the Saudi royals do.
“MBS and his father have close ties with the people, who came to power with the Trump administration,” Mamedov told RT. Trump’s enemies in the US could perceive a plot against MBS as a way to get to the US president by proxy, he added. “There is plenty of room to speculate because we only have open-source reports on this. What we can be sure in is that there was a conflict within the Saudi elite and that it resulted in a redistribution of wealth and power among factions... MBS has been consolidating power and, perhaps, someone is unhappy about it.” We have yet to see where things go in Saudi Arabia. MBS may have made some bad shots in international affairs, like starting the resource-draining war in Yemen or the diplomatic quarrel with Qatar, but he remains a very popular figure at home, so toppling him would have been a difficult task, believes Boris Dolgov, a Senior Research Fellow with the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies.
“Let’s wait and see if those princes are officially charged and with what exactly,” Dolgov told RT. “Saudi Arabia has quite harsh laws… but I wouldn’t expect members of the royal family to be subjected to the full weight of the law.”

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54275
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ramana » 08 Mar 2020 07:25

There are rumors about King Salman status.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Mar 2020 08:04

^ I thought he had already kicked the oil well. But if he has caught the CV, then all restraints are off, and its Aurangzeb Time. Coup or be couped.

Lohit
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 51
Joined: 28 Feb 2019 01:03

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Lohit » 08 Mar 2020 21:37

Amongst all the shocks being delivered to the global economy, this will be remembered as the one which delivered the KO,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-du ... 46296.html

"Saudi Arabia kicked off an all-out oil war on Saturday, slashing official pricing for its crude and making the deepest cuts in at least 20 years on its main grades, in a bid to push as many barrels into the market as possible.

The cuts in monthly pricing by state producer Saudi Aramco are the first indication of how the Saudis will respond to the breakup of the alliance between OPEC and partners like Russia. The kingdom plans to accompany the price cuts with a hike in crude supply, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Aramco’s pricing announcement is the first major marketing decision since producer talks in Vienna ended in dramatic failure on Friday, when Saudi Arabia was unable to persuade Russia to agree to prolonged and deeper cuts in output. Saudi production is set to exceed 10 million barrels a day next month, according to the people, who asked not to be named to protect commercial relations. Such an increase would amount to more than 3% of Saudi output in February.

Saudi Arabia is now really going into a full price war,”said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at oil consultant FGE.

The collapse of the meeting between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its erstwhile partners effectively ends the cooperation between the Saudis and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016. Unshackled from the cartel’s restrictions and with budget holes to fill, there is every chance producers will ramp up output. A reduction in the official selling prices, or OSPs, suggests the Saudis are looking to do just that.

“It’s certainly a high-risk, high-stakes approach,” Tim Fox, chief economist at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC, said Sunday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It will be a question of who blinks first.”

Aramco’s pricing decision affects about 14 million barrels a day of oil exports, as other producers in the Persian Gulf region follow its lead in setting prices for their own shipments. Every month, the Gulf’s biggest producers announce the official selling price for their crude grades as a differential -- a premium or discount -- against regional benchmarks. The changes are usually measured in cents and, at most, a couple of dollars.

The state producer lowered April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4 to $6 a barrel and to the U.S. by $7 a barrel, it said in a pricing announcement emailed Saturday just before midnight Saudi time. Aramco didn’t immediately comment on the strategy behind such deep reductions in pricing.

The cuts in monthly pricing by state producer Saudi Aramco are the first indication of how the Saudis will respond to the breakup of the alliance between OPEC and partners like Russia. The kingdom plans to accompany the price cuts with a hike in crude supply, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

With the coronavirus eroding demand, pushing Brent crude down about 20% so far this year heading into the meeting on Friday, the Saudis had hoped to shore up prices. Brent fell further after Russia balked at OPEC’s plan, closing the week down more than 30% for the year.

Saudi Arabia pumped 9.7 million barrels a day last month, but with the agreement on output cuts expiring at the end of March, the kingdom will be free to produce as much as it wants. The Saudis say they can pump as much as 12.5 million barrels a day.

Aramco slashed its official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude to buyers in Asia by $6 a barrel, to a discount of $3.10 below the Middle East benchmark. The cuts eclipsed the $1.90 reduction expected by traders and refiners. It also reduced Medium crude to Asia by $6 a barrel, dropping the grade to a $4.05 discount, according to the company’s pricing sheet.

Aramco sells most of its crude in Asia, a region that -- until the virus outbreak in China -- had served as the driver for global growth in energy demand.

The company lowered pricing to northwest Europe and to the Mediterranean region by between $6 and $8 a barrel. Aramco made its biggest cut for crude to northwest Europe, where an $8 a barrel reduction in most grades amounts to a direct challenge to Russia, which sells a large chunk of its flagship Urals crude in the same region. Aramco will sell Arab Light at an unprecedented $10.25 a barrel discount to Brent in Europe.

The world’s biggest oil exporter had expected to announce its pricing on Thursday but delayed the decision until after the meeting on Friday between the OPEC and allies including Russia. The postponement marked the first time in at least a decade that Aramco missed its pricing schedule. It typically announces pricing for its crude on the fifth day of each month."

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1579
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 08 Mar 2020 22:16

Saudis have realized that Oil will stop being valuable in another 20 to 30 years. Meanwhile, because they have the lowest production cost, can afford to engage others in a price war and keep their revenues constant. They derive these benefits:

1. Put competing nations under severe economic pressure so Russia relents on areas of interest to Saudis.
2. Make EVs unviable with low price of gas. Stretch the dominance of oil for as long as possible.
3. Continue to have top line growth so that they can reinvest the money in making their country into a less oil dependent economy and strive for food security with farmland investments in Africa, etc.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1579
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby schinnas » 08 Mar 2020 22:17

It's bangra time for India. Our ForEx reserves will soon reach half a trillion USD. We can afford to make risky but high yield investments instead of treasury bonds.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4043
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby KLNMurthy » 09 Mar 2020 01:15

schinnas wrote:It's bangra time for India. Our ForEx reserves will soon reach half a trillion USD. We can afford to make risky but high yield investments instead of treasury bonds.

Does India have strategic petroleum reserves like US does? gurus?

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1817
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby ldev » 09 Mar 2020 01:22

Saudis Instigate Oil-Price Clash With Russia

Friction between Saudi Arabia and Russia began in early February, when Prince Mohammed asked his father, King Salman, to phone Mr. Putin and to request Russia’s cooperation on new output curbs. When the king called, Mr. Putin initially wouldn’t make himself available to speak to him. :rotfl: When he did talk to the king, Mr. Putin refused to commit, according to Saudi officials.


By the time the gathering began, the Saudis’ entreaties had alienated both Mr. Putin and his energy minister Alexander Novak, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Novak has worked closely with his Saudi counterparts in the past but wasn’t consulted by them before they reached out to Mr. Putin, the people said :roll: .


So the Saudis tried to bypass the Russian Oil Minister thinking that he was being an obstacle to production cuts only to realize that Putin backed his oil minister's policies 100%.

Russia can balance it's budget with oil at 42 dollars/barrel. Saudi needs oil at 77-82 dollars/barrel. So guess who is going to be able to withstand the pain longer. I think this is another mistake being committed by MBS.

Vadivel
BRFite
Posts: 296
Joined: 07 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Chennai
Contact:

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby Vadivel » 09 Mar 2020 01:34

KLNMurthy wrote:
schinnas wrote:It's bangra time for India. Our ForEx reserves will soon reach half a trillion USD. We can afford to make risky but high yield investments instead of treasury bonds.

Does India have strategic petroleum reserves like US does? gurus?



Yes, we have reserves for 10 days.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3884
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby kit » 09 Mar 2020 04:30

Vadivel wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:Does India have strategic petroleum reserves like US does? gurus?



Yes, we have reserves for 10 days.



capacity addition for 40 days is being done

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: Saudi Arabia and its impact on Indian security

Postby chanakyaa » 09 Mar 2020 04:49

This morning oil prices are crashing by 20-30% down to 2008 crisis level. Time for India to buy massive amounts at dirt cheap prices and pass the benefit from sheikh's pocket to Indian consumers...
Oil plummets 30% as OPEC deal failure sparks price war


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: VikramA, VTanMay and 40 guests