Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

Post by ramana »

Please discuss the political and strategic aspects of the Libyan No Fly Zone. All technical hardware related stuff can go in the Mil Forum.
Thanks, ramana

The Libyan No fly Zone is the first time after Iraq fiasco that a coalition has been formed to take on a despot in the Middle East.

Its also noteworthy that US is taking a back seat in the run-up to the UNSC resolution and appears to be a most reluctant player. However it has let lose a large number of cruise missiles and has appointed task force commanders etc showing that reluctance could be a front.

Also recall when Reagan used F-111s in mid 1980s, a couple of them were shot down and led to a lot of angst. I guess the decision to use C/M was in light of past experience.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Ambar »

Note the date of the first salvo, 19th of March - exactly 8 years to the day after F-117s fired the opening shots of the 2nd Iraq war. I think more than being a reluctant player, US is playing it very safe by doing all the muscle work in the background, without exposing itself too much as any US direct involvement could stall this new wave of 'democracy' in the ME. I don't NATO is interested in yet another ground war as the sentiments could turn against them, so probably they'll try to crush conventional arms of Gadhhafi, and then support a civil war. Libya is not very important as a oil producer, so time is not really a problem.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5868
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by krisna »

cross posting from no fly zone thread
saik and manum posts-
French taking part in enforcing no fly zone and at the same time selling rafale to libyan strong man.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 1#p1050081
Deal Near on Sale of 14 Rafales to Libya
By pierre tran
Published: 19 Mar 11:04 EDT (15:04 GMT)
Commercial and technical negotiations on a sale of 14 French Rafale fighter jets to Libya have been largely completed, and politics will dictate the timing of any announcement of a deal, an industry executive said March 19.
"The negotiations are done, more or less," the executive said.
Asked when a deal would be announced, the executive said, "It's politics, it's always politics."
"Negotiations are still going on with Libya," Jacques-Emmanuel Lajugie, the head of the international division of the Délégation Générale pour l'Armement (DGA), said March 17. The talks were lasting as long as expected, he said. The DGA is the French government's military procurement office.

MBDA CEO Antoine Bouvier said separately March 17 that he expected a large export sale for missiles tied to the Rafale this year or next, as well as weapons for the FREMM frigate, a new warship being built for France and Italy.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1050203
he New York Times reports:

That news [of French air strikes] came even before the Paris summit meeting adjourned, with President Nicolas Sarkozy announcing that French warplanes had begun reconnaissance missions around Benghazi, and the French military saying that a Rafale jet fighter had destroyed a government tank near there.

Even though the leaders at the Paris summit meeting were united in supporting military action, there were signs of disagreement over how it would proceed.

Two senior Western diplomats said the Paris meeting, which was organized by Mr Sarkozy, may actually have delayed allied operations to stop Colonel Gaddafi's troops as they were approaching Benghazi. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the matter.

The initial French air sorties, which were not coordinated with other countries, angered some of the countries gathered at the summit meeting, according to a senior Nato-country diplomat. Information about the movement of Gaddafi troops toward Benghazi had been clear on Friday, but France blocked any Nato agreement on airstrikes until the Paris meeting, the diplomat said, suggesting that overflights could have begun Friday night before Mr Gaddafi's troops reached the city.
with all the troubles in libya going on for the last days- weeks,wonder how the french can do the above with a straight face :shock:
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4041
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by suryag »

calling this a no-fly zone resolution is a fallacy. They will have boots from Arab nations in about a month or so and until then hone their a-g skills.
joshvajohn
BRFite
Posts: 1516
Joined: 09 Nov 2006 03:27

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by joshvajohn »

What Gaddafi should do now? He is causing destruction of his own military and many people's deaths in his country. If he wants to live without being killed with his ministers and family he should follow the following
He should declare that he is resigning from the post of being president. He will declare election within a year or two. He will hand over the power to his own minister or military who can bring both sides together - that is East and West of Libya. If not he is responsible for division of Libya.

Now Libyans can finish their revolution
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... gaddafi-un
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ramana »

A few comments.

- Gaddafi's volte face after Saddam Hussein defeat in Iraq war came of no avail as he didnt know his limits.

- Obama's first two years of appeasing Islamic world and speech at Cairo etc have come to naught.

This is the big picture.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Pranav »

African Union demands 'immediate' halt to Libya attacks

NOUAKCHOTT — The African Union's panel on Libya Sunday called for an "immediate stop" to all attacks after the United States, France and Britain launched military action against Moamer Kadhafi's forces.
...
The committee said it had been unable to get international permission to visit Tripoli on Sunday but did not elaborate.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 493fb9a.d1
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Klaus »

IMO, France (personified by Sarkozy) has come out openly against Islamism while maintaining a right-wing anti-Islamic stance which was established by France banning the burqa.

The main reason why Berlusconi has taken the decision to allow usage of his airbases for this operation is to largely divert Italian public's focus away from internal affairs and personal scandals in which he is alleged to be involved.
Europe's involvement in North Africa will be the beginning of a polarisation of the EU (not necessarily North-South), Germany may increasingly find itself isolated and may seek a new alliance with Russia. The other states will be happy to keep the EU in a permanent state of stand-off while continuing to keep Turkey out. Southern and central Europe will get Islamised with pockets of Christian resistance.

Frankly, I do not understand the reason for Canada to have contributed anything to this effort.

Added later: This looks like a concerted effort to kill off the African Union in its embryonic stages, the West probably does not desire to increase the number of players in the game, having its plate full with rising China and India.
Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Bade »

What is GCC states stake in this either ? Likes of Qatar & UAE. Hard to understand.
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Klaus »

^^^ The same driving forces that prevail between Singapore and Indonesia or between Malaysia and Indonesia. UAE probably does not want to fall into the middle-income trap that is Malaysia, it sees a larger state like Libya as a threat because cost of conducting business is cheaper in Libya.

An organised city-state like Qatar wants to be the cynosure of all eyes and does not desire any competition in its neighbourhood.

Qatar==Singapore, Dubai's fall is Qatar's rise. UAE== Malaysia. Any other large state in the neigbourhood excepting KSA is an Indonesia (yes, even Iran falls into this category).
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Pranav »

Bade wrote:What is GCC states stake in this either ? Likes of Qatar & UAE. Hard to understand.
from west asia thread:
Pranav wrote: B ji, Gaddhafi is no angel but his opponents are worse. The Gulf Arab Sheikhs hate Gaddhafi because they are poodles and he calls them poodles, which makes them look impotent in front of their own people.
The tensions between Gaddhafi and the Gulf Sheikhs began when Gaddhafi criticized them for supporting the invasion of Iraq.
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Klaus »

Marten wrote:So how come India doesn't gain if Gaddafi falls? Shouldn't there be some party that will be even partially beneficial, given that we've been involved there for a while?

otoh, India might have a sliver of an opportunity to get hold of a few contracts if he survives?
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5366&p=1050427#p1050427

Indian interests would be best served if Gadhafi holds on to power (now that open hostilities have started), forcing the amirkhans to deploy on the ground. After having played the game for so many decades, he is the best judge to decide if his time is up or not. If indeed his time is up and he is going down, then he might as well take the West down a couple of notches down as well, thereby directing Islamist rage away from the sub-continent.

Now that all bets are off, it is pointless to discuss whether GoI did the right thing or not.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shyamd »

Bade wrote:What is GCC states stake in this either ? Likes of Qatar & UAE. Hard to understand.
Look here birather.... Very zimple onlee... UAE boys want target practice for Iran. US wants arab states to take part to stop this from looking like another Iraq - its an image thing. It is likely that the UAE will be in western coalition if they were to strike nuclear targets in Iran, so this is like a real life drill.

UAE has sent their boys to Afghanistan, to get counter terror practice, conduct of operations, get the boys war ready.

Qatar:- Not sure, but they are trying a little to be an independent state that sets policy. They want to be like KSA in terms of power.

This is not to say no other arab sstate was invited. They were. KSA defence min was asked by Washington about 10 days ago for RSAF participation. RSAF said YES but xyz conditions if we are to deploy.

This is not about "saving the people" for the arabs. There is no ideology as part of this deployment.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shiv »

India has come out with a stupid soundind statement that "air stikes are regrettable". This is Indian non committal diplospeak that I have heard from the 1970s. Flippin heck!

How come India did not find Gadhafis air strikes regrettable?

Have you guys read the statement from India - a more chai biskoot statement than that is difficult to hear.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shyamd »

BJP has said that Libya is the next Iraq. Lol.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Dilbu »

shyamd wrote:BJP has said that Libya is the next Iraq. Lol.
WTF is wrong with these people? First MOE now BJP. Are they unaware of the situation or is there something I am missing here? Why are we giving out statements supporting Gaddafi?
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Singha »

Shiv, quite simply our foreign policy is rudderless. in the absence of any clear cut long term goal and the WILL to work for it, these generic MS word template type statements are rolled out after copy-paste. we neither gain anything by siding with the west nor anything by siding with the rogue of the day. we are ignored by both because we take no sides, non alignment and irrelevance at its best.
- bomb blast is regretable
- naxal attack is regretable
- BJP making any issue is regretable
- 2G scam is regretable
- anything is regretable
pran
BRFite
Posts: 110
Joined: 09 Oct 2001 11:31
Location: internet

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by pran »

The pace of evacuation of foreign nationals from Libya was an indicator that it is a grand choreography. It was given by the way UN security council voted that they had been given advance notice.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by brihaspati »

When do you hear the Arab League and Iran agreeing on something? Now both do not like the actions undertaken under the no-fly-zone agreement. One is trying to condmens "insidicriminate" bombing, and the other warning against allowing western dominance. Both groups want the popular uprisings (they are popular, by all indications) to serve their agenda, rise and fall and bark according to the sweet wills and paranoid ambitions of the ayatollahs and sheiks and emirs. They are as much scared of revolutions as Americans or the West are. This is the key to understand the statements being made and potential behaviour from the existing leaders of the Arab world and Iran over the Libyan action.

Americans should not have said that they were leading it but allow UK or France to do the honours. Moreover they have a short window in which to decimate Gaddafi's forces, and restock the opposition.

As for India or anyone else mumbling and playing it safe, it is important to realize that historical turning points do not stay on forever. It is a tendency in Indian analysis of situations to be confounded by complex contradictions in political developments and get stuck in an overemphasis on "nothing is entirely black and white" which then becomes the excuse for decision paralysis. On the other hand it is this same "nothing is black and white" mindset to stick to paradigms and never update even with real experiences. Thus we have a rigid mindset to think that the Islamic regions do not have forces and dynamics of change within themselves that are not entirely mullahcratic.

It is critical to support the non-mullahcratic component against the mullahcratic component in the uprisings or movements that at the moment have converged on the point of common hatred against their ruling regimes. If we dont support the more modernizing trends within these movements, the elite of Islamic sytems will hijack this popular sentiment into their pet agenda - hatred of the "qufr", wallowing in the Sharia, and erasure of the Jews as a first step towards erasure of all perceived obstacles to their absolute mullahcracy.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ramana »

8)

8)

Mubarak easing out was credited to the Egyptians.

So he needed to get rid of some dictator witth force. and idiot Gadda fi gave the opportunity.

Ever since Reagan and his scheme of using massive force on small tinpot fools it has been par for the course for US Presidents to overthrow tinpot despots.

Also brings up morale in US which is at a low due to malaise. Need to be reminded of striking a blow for democracy.
habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6919
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by habal »

pran wrote:The pace of evacuation of foreign nationals from Libya was an indicator that it is a grand choreography. It was given by the way UN security council voted that they had been given advance notice.
the question then is what is the larger game-plan of the anglo-saxon alliance. Since the govts of foreign nationals were informed well in advance what was about to happen.

With the well-oiled 'no fly zone' implementation and striking at all manner of ground targets and fudging of civilian casualties by western media, it all seems like we are back to the same old grind/routine.

It now seems more apparent to me that a band of rebels were armed/assembled/funded at benghazi by the usual suspects probably via egyptian military assets as quid pro quo for dismantling Hosni-structure and retaliation by qaddhafi (more like business-as usual slack response) was taken as excuse for no-fly zone and then blinding bombardment a la Iraq ver.1.0
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ramana »

shyamd wrote:BJP has said that Libya is the next Iraq. Lol.

Wait and watch. The similarities are there.

An Arab dictator over reaches and arouses world anger and UN resolution to uses force. The Arab dictator also keeps the Islamists under check and gets removed.
Benghazi == Basra

Gaddafi == Saddam

Al Libbi ==Al Sadr

Most likely will lead to radicalization of North Africa at a minimum with blowback into Western Europe.
Shades of Amr and Tarek.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shiv »

Colonialism is dead
Long live colonialism.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Dilbu »

India, China, Russia oppose air strikes on Libya
New Delhi: India, China and Russia Sunday opposed the Western air strikes on Libya, with Moscow demanding a dialogue to end the "bloodshed".

The Indian foreign ministry said nothing should be done that aggravates the worsening situation for the people of Libya, where a revolt erupted in February against the four-decades rule of Muammar Gaddafi.

"India views with grave concern the continuing violence, strife and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Libya. It regrets the air strikes that are taking place," a ministry statement said.

It said the Indian government hoped that the air attacks would not lead to greater harm to innocent civilians, foreigners and diplomatic missions and their personnel still in Libya.

"As stated earlier by India, the measures adopted should mitigate and not exacerbate an already difficult situation for the people of Libya."

New Delhi urged all parties "to abjure use of or the threat of use of force and to resolve their differences through peaceful means and dialogue in which the UN and regional organisations should play their roles".

Russia and China echoed similar sentiments
.
nits
BRFite
Posts: 1156
Joined: 01 May 2006 22:56
Location: Some where near Equator...

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by nits »

Same old story always - who is listening anyways - India regrets ongoing air-strikes in Libya
Gravely concerned over "continuing violence, strife and deteriorating humanitarian situation" in Libya, India on Sunday regretted the air strikes by United States-led coalition and called upon all parties to abjure use of force and resolve their differences through peaceful means.

"India views with grave concern the continuing violence, strife and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Libya. It regrets the air strikes that are taking place. The measures adopted should mitigate and not exacerbate an already difficult situation for the people of the country," ministry of external affairs said in a statement.

"Spoke to Ambassador (M) Manimekalai in Tripoli a short while ago. She is cool and calm. Harrowing Saturday night though' with jets screaming above, she says," Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Klaus »

I did read a recent issue of Time Magazine wherein it is said that Ombaba seriously models himself after Reagan, this admiration started after a volte-face event in his varsity days in LA.
Something to that effect passed in form of conversation when the First Family invited Nancy Reagan to dinner. This is also being seen as a move to snatch back the initiative that POTUS has 'seemingly' lost to SoS Hillary.

One objective seems to be creation of trade choke-points for the land-locked and resource rich African states. With Libya in turmoil, the coastline from Somalia to Morocco is under contention and constant flux.

Does Qadhafi hold anything of value for OBL or vice versa? Has he hit the lowest point in the curve of diminishing returns?
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Dilbu »

Looks like more headache for Ombaba.
Arab League condemns broad bombing campaign in Libya
CAIRO—The Arab League secretary general, Amr Moussa, deplored the broad scope of the U.S.-European bombing campaign in Libya on Sunday and said he would call a new league meeting to reconsider Arab approval of the Western military intervention. Moussa said the Arab League’s approval of a no-fly zone on March 12 was based on a desire to prevent Moammar Gaddafi’s air force from attacking civilians and was not designed to embrace the intense bombing and missile attacks—including on Tripoli, the capital, and on Libyan ground forces—that have filled Arab television screens for the last two days.

“What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone,” he said in a statement on the official Middle East News Agency. “And what we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.”

Moussa’s declaration suggested some of the 22 Arab League members were taken aback by what they have seen and wanted to modify their approval lest they be perceived as accepting outright Western military intervention in Libya. Although the eccentric Gaddafi is widely looked down on in the Arab world, Middle Eastern leaders and their peoples traditionally have risen up in emotional protest at the first sign of Western intervention.
sugriva
BRFite
Posts: 318
Joined: 15 Jun 2005 20:16
Location: Exposing the uber communist luddites masquerading as capitalists

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by sugriva »

IMVHO, Unkil here seems to be playing for the long run. Notice his targets in the last few months either through the jasmine revolutions or direct as in the case of Libya. All of these countries, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya were non islamofascist countries that would in time be amenable to cooperation with China and/or India. Unkil has quickly moved to remove these sources of leverage from the likes of China/India. Unkil is very smart.
joshvajohn
BRFite
Posts: 1516
Joined: 09 Nov 2006 03:27

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by joshvajohn »

The best way to go forward is to divide Bengazi into another nation if Gaddafi is not coming down and he is not letting people to raise their voices democratically.

I thinkn Gaddafi is killing his own people and then burying them as if the allies have done this. He can tell all lies.

If Gaddafi thinks that he has full support of his people what is the problem for allowing him or his son to be democratically elected back to be a president or primeminister? It is clear that people do not like him and his regime.

Arabs say Gaddafi must go, wary of Western action
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/i ... EG20110320

I told Gaddafi it is wrong - Zuma
http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Polit ... a-20110317
Dasari
BRFite
Posts: 561
Joined: 04 Mar 2009 09:20

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Dasari »

shiv wrote:India has come out with a stupid soundind statement that "air stikes are regrettable". This is Indian non committal diplospeak that I have heard from the 1970s. Flippin heck!

How come India did not find Gadhafis air strikes regrettable?

Have you guys read the statement from India - a more chai biskoot statement than that is difficult to hear.
India's position is ridiculous. It is one thing to abstain from voting, but to make a running commentary against the air strikes is preposterous. Is it that hard to keep their mouth shut while these power mongers fight it out? Clearly at the end of the day, Gaddafi is going to die or run away. I haven't seen any statement from China, Brazil or Germany against the air strikes. The Russian statement against air strikes is very mechanical which they have been doing for the last 50 years and nobody takes them seriously. But for a country aspiring to have UN security council's permanent membership, this is a huge step backwards.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Pranav »

^^^ China has also issued a statement of regret, along with Russia and India. Brazil was pretty vocal at the UNSC. The Arab League poodles are back-tracking under pressure from their own street and bazaar. That covers the majority of the world population.

Meanwhile
Hundreds of British SAS soldiers have been operating with rebel groups inside Libya for three weeks, the Sunday Mirror can reveal today.

Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-storie ... z1HAWeIOpz
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Pranav »

Libya Uprising Raises Crucial Questions on Rebels - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

For now, the Libyan Islamists work shoulder to shoulder with defectors from the regime, secular intellectuals, tribal chiefs and youth campaigners, all of them united by hatred of Col. Gadhafi—and by fear of merciless reprisals should he succeed in reconquering eastern Libya.

Prominent revolutionaries at the rebel headquarters in the Benghazi courthouse include a veteran of the Afghan jihad against the Soviet Union, an unveiled female professor who sports black leather jackets, and a Libyan-American who likes to discuss French wines. {i.e. either Islamists or deracinated elites}

"Everything is still fresh. What we want is democracy, and once we have parties, everyone could express themselves," says Salwa Bugaigis, a lawyer who has become a spokeswoman for the rebels. As for the Islamist component of the uprising, she adds: "As you can see, I'm unveiled, I'm modern, and they respect me. If they were al Qaeda, they wouldn't even look at me."
...

The roots of the uprising lie in the 1996 massacre of some 1,200 mostly Islamist prisoners by Col. Gadhafi's regime in Benghazi: The revolution began with the Feb. 15 detention of Fathi Terbil, a young human-rights lawyer who represented the killed prisoners' relatives.

"I want a civil government, separation for powers, a free media, and a modern state of institutions," Mr. Terbil, a member of the rebels' new provisional government, said at a recent news conference.

The rebel government's head is Col. Gadhafi's former justice minister, Mustafa Abdel Jalil—although he is rarely seen in public, in part because of the bounty offered on him by the regime.
...

"Wherever you go, it's just volunteers, and there is no management—all the managers were with Gadhafi and have now fled," said Khalifa Hassan, a fourth-year medical student who stepped in to treat the victims of Col. Gadhafi's assault in the city of Ajdabiya. "There is no coordination."

The grass-roots nature of the uprising was evident this weekend, as residents clogged the roads leading out of Benghazi, offering shelter and food to refugees fleeing Saturday's shelling and tank assault on the rebel capital.

Men at intersections thrust bottles of water and juice into passing cars; one even handed out wads of cash to every Benghazi family passing by.

Yet, it is this kind of spontaneous activism that prompted the ragtag revolutionary fighters to overextend their lines with an unprepared push into the oil town of Ras Lanuf two weeks ago, prompting Col. Gadhafi's devastating counteroffensive that ended up bringing regime troops back into Benghazi this weekend. {hardly that spontaneous - where did they get the wads of cash?}

"The youths are enthusiastic and they do not accept any fixed military plans," complained the rebels' military chief of staff, Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis, until recently Col. Gadhafi's minister of interior. "They rushed ahead, and there are consequences for that."

The cross section of young fighters who answered that call to battle could be seen at the front lines.

Mohammed al-Duraif, a self-proclaimed follower of the fundamentalist Salafi brand of Islam, unloaded boxes of ammunition from a pickup truck. "Allahu Akbar," or "God is great," he proclaimed with each new box.

He handed them off to Ali Yussuf, who sported Ray-Ban aviator sunglasses and slim-fit Levis. Mr. Yussuf's inspirations in life, he said: reggae legend Bob Marley and the professional wrestler Randy Orton.
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by RamaY »

A dumb question.

Why is west destroying the Libyan military complex in the name of NFZ? can't they implement NFZ without that? Who would pay the bill to reestablish LAF after the revolution?

I see lot of similarities with Iraq, and we know how it ended and how much democracy and progress Iraq has seen in past 5 years.

So much planned destruction of national mil-industrial complex...

It is curious to note the (over) action of 2-bit NATO members...
sourab_c
BRFite
Posts: 187
Joined: 14 Feb 2009 18:07
Location: around

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by sourab_c »

Just to add to the above poster.

What exactly is their plan? They certainly cannot remove Gaddafi by throwing bombs from the air. They will have to deploy ground troops to overthrow him (like Iraq).

Gaddafi is here to stay I think. India has done the right thing by staying away from this mess.
AKalam
BRFite
Posts: 285
Joined: 04 Jan 2009 05:34
Location: Los Angeles
Contact:

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by AKalam »

Libya is no Iraq IMHO, although there is similarity between the whimsical characters of Saddam and Qaddafi. Amr Moussa is running for President in Egypt, so he is picking up a few brownie points, expressing concern for civilian casualty from the volley of more than 120 Tomahawks. There definitely will be collateral damage, but this bombing run was necessary to take out air defense systems and any other threats to coalition birds as much as possible, for them to enforce the NFZ without hindrance. I believe this missile run is a one time thing and Amr Moussa just lost his cool on this one. Whether Mr. Moussa's comment was due to pressure from Arab street, perhaps shyamd can tell us more as he is there on the ground and in a position to feel the pulse of the Arab public opinion.

Qatar and UAE air force will participate with their fighters, Turkey of late has also decided to contribute.

As for the 48 civilian deaths, I am still waiting for Qaddafi's video footage and pictures of these dead civilians and children. There is already footage of Qaddafi's dead armed forces men (claimed to be mercenary) and damaged tanks from Benghazi. Live blog from Aljazeera:

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/ ... march-20-0
Theo_Fidel

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Pranav wrote:Yet, it is this kind of spontaneous activism that prompted the ragtag revolutionary fighters to overextend their lines with an unprepared push into the oil town of Ras Lanuf two weeks ago, prompting Col. Gadhafi's devastating counteroffensive that ended up bringing regime troops back into Benghazi this weekend. {hardly that spontaneous - where did they get the wads of cash?}
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.

Two weeks back Gaddafi clan made a big deal of sending a 20 truck convoy with 'relief supplies' towards Benghazi. Even then I remember looking at the trucks and noting that they looked like military rather than commercial trucking. Undoubtedly it was an attempt to camouflage their attempt to send in this military division, the entire elite Al-Khamis grouping according to some observers. The clans (probably accurate) assessment was that if they took Benghazi, the only town large enough to challenge Tripoli, the rebel movement would effectively be over. Over a period of a couple of years the guerrilla's and rebels would have then been moped up town to town.

Of course the West fully understood the gravity of the situation and the Arab league was arm twisted, and shown the reality of the armed column, to make its declaration. The UN resolution was rushed thru just in time for the coalition to catch the armed column as it was about to enter Benghazi. And there is a bridge I could sell you, real cheap...

- The west knew this column was on its way.
- It did not warn the westward advancing rebels.
- The rebels get massacred helping with the 'no-fly' resolution.
- The column was mapped and tracked and exterminated. This takes days of planning with special forces on the ground through out. The SF also did the final laser tagging. None of the rebel 4x4's were hit while every one of the Clan 4x4's were hit. Oh Yes! there are definitely boots on the ground and in the hundreds I might add.
- Latest reports are that up to 18 tanks alone were destroyed, not counting other artillery. This alone weakens Gaddafi clan measurably. Probably a full 1/4 to 1/3 of their entire trained military force.
- As the rebels advance west all targets that that approach them will mysteriously blow up. The Afghanistan solution.
- The rebels will be under express orders not to reveal the SF amongst them while also protecting them with their lives. To the last man if necessary, as it sometimes was in Afghanistan.

The next armored division to be exterminated will be the ones around Misurata and Al-Zawiya. Then Sirte and Sebha will be bombed. Esp the roads connecting Sirte to the main high way. This will allow the rebels to proceed to Tripoli unchallenged. The Iraq 'no war-no peace' stalemate is on everyone's mind, including the rebels. This action will only end with the taking of Tripoli. Shouldn't be too hard once the Tripoli population 'mysteriously' gains access to a 100,000 or so AK-47's. Maybe the rebels could find a cache and conveniently deliver the arms as they approach Tripoli.
Raja Bose
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19478
Joined: 18 Oct 2005 01:38

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Raja Bose »

Pranav wrote:
Hundreds of British SAS soldiers have been operating with rebel groups inside Libya for three weeks, the Sunday Mirror can reveal today.

Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-storie ... z1HAWeIOpz
Unless all the SAS soldiers have been withdrawn from Eye-rak and AfPak and sent to Libya, I would take the above report with a very large dose of salt. The SAS however during its WWII years operated extensively in these areas.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Ambar »

AP reporting Gadhafi's compound hit by allied airforce. The front of the 4 ft thick walled building has been completely reduced to rubble. Are heavy strategic bombers being used or is it just the handy work of F-16s and Rafales ?
Post Reply