India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

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rgosain
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by rgosain »

The present discussions surrounding CAATSA and the sanctions regime, brings to mind the entry into force clauses of the CTBT and the attempts by previous US admins 25 years ago to CRE , which was done at the behest of the PRC. China continued to test and proliferate and was rewarded with an NSG seat by the Clintons for this. The letter that ABV wrote to Clinton exactly 20 years ago following POK2 was leaked by the WH - at least no one could claim they were not aware of the PRC proliferation record 20+ years ago.

Today the PRC blocks India at the NSG, presumably with a nod and a wink by the US who no doubt uses the scenario to wring concessions from the GOI, however if the PRC continues on this course with CAATSA lurking in the background, the GOI should reconsider the Westinghouse reactors which are untested and still in bankruptcy as an early response to CAATSA or an NSG rebuff.

If the uS want cooperation over CAATSA then it should be prepared to break the NSG
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

mody wrote:If India were to become a member of NSG, would India conduct another round of Nuclear weapons tests?
There doesn't seem to be a major advantage in India becoming a member of NSG, in terms of getting fuel or technology from other countries.
No one is going to give their reactors design to India, will rather ask that India buy the reactors, similar to the Russian VVER contracts.
This can be done even right now. Both France and the US are willing sell, but the terms, operations by NPCIL , liability and price remain a constraint.
Fuel is also currently available, with Australia already having started supplying uranium and other countries too likely to supply.

In terms of processing the fuel, India does not need any help. With membership of NSG, we will be able to export our PHWR reactors. However, our domestic requirement itself is big enough that we will mostly not be able to export anytime soon. Also, exporting to African countries, will involve NPCIL also running the plants after building them. Not sure we have the personnel to do that. Already we are in discussion with Russia and Bangladesh to operate Russian VVER in Bangladesh.
There doesn't seem to be a very big advantage to getting the membership of NSG.

If it allows India to conduct another round of tests, to validate its weapons design, then it would all make sense.
NSG will play a role in declaring us an unofficial NWS, give us access to reprocessing/enrichment tech, and is the last major global mafia network we need to join to be taken seriously for UNSC seat. It will also give us a seat on the table for any future talks on non-proliferation including FMCT.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by mody »

RoyG wrote:
mody wrote:If India were to become a member of NSG, would India conduct another round of Nuclear weapons tests?
There doesn't seem to be a major advantage in India becoming a member of NSG, in terms of getting fuel or technology from other countries.
No one is going to give their reactors design to India, will rather ask that India buy the reactors, similar to the Russian VVER contracts.
This can be done even right now. Both France and the US are willing sell, but the terms, operations by NPCIL , liability and price remain a constraint.
Fuel is also currently available, with Australia already having started supplying uranium and other countries too likely to supply.

In terms of processing the fuel, India does not need any help. With membership of NSG, we will be able to export our PHWR reactors. However, our domestic requirement itself is big enough that we will mostly not be able to export anytime soon. Also, exporting to African countries, will involve NPCIL also running the plants after building them. Not sure we have the personnel to do that. Already we are in discussion with Russia and Bangladesh to operate Russian VVER in Bangladesh.
There doesn't seem to be a very big advantage to getting the membership of NSG.

If it allows India to conduct another round of tests, to validate its weapons design, then it would all make sense.
NSG will play a role in declaring us an unofficial NWS, give us access to reprocessing/enrichment tech, and is the last major global mafia network we need to join to be taken seriously for UNSC seat. It will also give us a seat on the table for any future talks on non-proliferation including FMCT.
We are already an "Unofficial Nuclear Weapon State". How exactly is NSG membership going to change that? I thought NSG membership will change the label to Official Nuclear Weapon State or more correctly it should be globally accepted Nuclear Weapons state(GANWS). The distiction being that GANWS are allowed to trade freely in nuclear technology and also develop their own nuclear technology. Those who are not globally accepted, don't have the freedom to trade freely in nuclear technology and materials, except under special bilateral agrrements, which should also be agreed to by the grand ayotollahs like the US.
With NSG membership, it allows us to freely trade with all other NSG members for nuclear technology and materials. Moreover, it also allows to export civilian nuclear power plants to most countries around the world, as long as the plants are under IAEA safeguard.
Now, the difference is that all other members of the NSG are NPT signatories. If India is admitted in NSG, then we become a GANWS, which alters the NPT. NPT recognizes only 5 GANWS and that is the same with NSG also.

Apart from the trade aspects, NSG also allows its members to develop nuclear technology freely.

This part bring us to my original question, which is that does it also allow us to conduct hot nuclear tests, without attracting sanctions? Spent fuel reprocessing technology is not something that a lot of states are itching to supply to us. I don't think that will happen very soon, even if we are admitted into NSG. Since we are not a signatory to CTBT, I think that if we get membership of NSG and hence get recognition as GANWS, then it will allow is to conduct another round of hot nuclear tests and if we are fully satisfied, then we can go ahead and sign the CTBT thereafter and also participate in discussions of FMCT. MTCR did the same for us. With our entry into MTCR, the biggest change has been that we can not increase the range to missiles like Brahmos. Other then that, there was no real need for India to enter into MTCR. We were never going to sell any kind of missiles having a range greater then 300 Kms or payload greater then 300-500 Kgs. We were already complying with all provisions of MTCR in letter and spirit, before we were part of it. Being part of it, only removed the restriction placed on us.

I think the NSG membership will also do the same for us.
Neshant
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Neshant »

Nuclear industry is dying in the west.

Its a buyers market for these reactors.

__________________________

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nu ... t-handout/
RoyG
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

mody wrote:
RoyG wrote:
NSG will play a role in declaring us an unofficial NWS, give us access to reprocessing/enrichment tech, and is the last major global mafia network we need to join to be taken seriously for UNSC seat. It will also give us a seat on the table for any future talks on non-proliferation including FMCT.
We are already an "Unofficial Nuclear Weapon State". How exactly is NSG membership going to change that? I thought NSG membership will change the label to Official Nuclear Weapon State or more correctly it should be globally accepted Nuclear Weapons state(GANWS). The distiction being that GANWS are allowed to trade freely in nuclear technology and also develop their own nuclear technology. Those who are not globally accepted, don't have the freedom to trade freely in nuclear technology and materials, except under special bilateral agrrements, which should also be agreed to by the grand ayotollahs like the US.
With NSG membership, it allows us to freely trade with all other NSG members for nuclear technology and materials. Moreover, it also allows to export civilian nuclear power plants to most countries around the world, as long as the plants are under IAEA safeguard.
Now, the difference is that all other members of the NSG are NPT signatories. If India is admitted in NSG, then we become a GANWS, which alters the NPT. NPT recognizes only 5 GANWS and that is the same with NSG also.

Apart from the trade aspects, NSG also allows its members to develop nuclear technology freely.

This part bring us to my original question, which is that does it also allow us to conduct hot nuclear tests, without attracting sanctions? Spent fuel reprocessing technology is not something that a lot of states are itching to supply to us. I don't think that will happen very soon, even if we are admitted into NSG. Since we are not a signatory to CTBT, I think that if we get membership of NSG and hence get recognition as GANWS, then it will allow is to conduct another round of hot nuclear tests and if we are fully satisfied, then we can go ahead and sign the CTBT thereafter and also participate in discussions of FMCT. MTCR did the same for us. With our entry into MTCR, the biggest change has been that we can not increase the range to missiles like Brahmos. Other then that, there was no real need for India to enter into MTCR. We were never going to sell any kind of missiles having a range greater then 300 Kms or payload greater then 300-500 Kgs. We were already complying with all provisions of MTCR in letter and spirit, before we were part of it. Being part of it, only removed the restriction placed on us.

I think the NSG membership will also do the same for us.
I look at all these groups as a stepping stone to UNSC seat which is why China is opposing. If India is apart of 4/4 of the elite global weapon tech and nuclear bodies with a big economy and population w/ nuclear weapons, it will be hard to keep it away from the high table which controls the destiny of the planet. India's UNSC membership will also boost Japan's prospects which will give us even more leverage in Asia over China which is why Russia and US both support Indias candidature.

So far China has shirked its responsibility to put forth the Asian world view b/c they are still colonialized by Hegel. I think the UNSC and the world can benefit from solutions generated from the Indian context in areas like cultural protection, happiness, etc.

The next phase of global peace will come through FMCT, CTBT ratification, etc. w/ countries able to leap frog in development due to tech, global mafia needs to maintain its power. its imperative that we are apart of these negotiations.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by souravB »

A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

souravB wrote:A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
We are already tied to the NPT through legally binding agreements signed with USA and UN.

Unless NDA is in losing position in national elections or in a precarious security situation, I think the gov has completely given up on testing.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

After someone credibly spoke of a 2019 commissioning for the PFBR, I now look forward to good news about the revival of the two Kakrapar reactors, when there is a posting on this thread!
RoyG
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

Era of big ass reactors is over. We'll are already moving to increased efficiency systems, renewables, fusion, and small thorium battery reactors for power.

India of course will be playing catch up to the global trends and standards in energy field for the foreseeable b/c it has no realistic vision. Kakodkar recently came out saying if he could go bck he would do MSR instead of sodium fast. That's a good indication of how cocooned these people are. Saraswat a few months ago was talking about hydrogen fuel cell when battery tech had already killed it years ago.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by souravB »

RoyG wrote:
souravB wrote:A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
We are already tied to the NPT through legally binding agreements signed with USA and UN.

Unless NDA is in losing position in national elections or in a precarious security situation, I think the gov has completely given up on testing.
But we still haven't signed it because we'll have to give up our nukes. My query was will it be worthwhile to give up the nukes after we get a seat at UNSC?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Lisa »

souravB wrote:A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
SouravBji,

IMHO, The power of a powerful nation do not stem from the admission to the NSG ot UNSC but from secure and substantial political, military, economic and technological independence, eg the USA. Even if the US did not process a UNSC seat or membership of the NSG it matters not an ounce. India should get busy building this independence. The Chinese objections to membership matter not an iota if you go by my plan, ie if you can create internal capacity via prudent investment, access denial means nothing! One step further, let's say India does achieve this said independence and then proceeds to test a nuclear device. What is the world to do then?

See the US example where it has renounced both treaty obligations and international norms and nobody can do anything about it. Would you not like to have such an ability?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

Lisa wrote:
souravB wrote:A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
SouravBji,

IMHO, The power of a powerful nation do not stem from the admission to the NSG ot UNSC but from secure and substantial political, military, economic and technological independence, eg the USA. Even if the US did not process a UNSC seat or membership of the NSG it matters not an ounce. India should get busy building this independence. The Chinese objections to membership matter not an iota if you go by my plan, ie if you can create internal capacity via prudent investment, access denial means nothing! One step further, let's say India does achieve this said independence and then proceeds to test a nuclear device. What is the world to do then?

See the US example where it has renounced both treaty obligations and international norms and nobody can do anything about it. Would you not like to have such an ability?
Foreign policy can't wait for domestic policy. You have to take what you can get in the meantime.
souravB
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by souravB »

Lisa wrote:
souravB wrote:A thought that has been into the back of my mind, I want to ask the Gurus here and note their opinions
In a scenario if the guaranteed admission to UNSC and NSG requires India to sign the NPT, should we?

and should India after getting a seat at UNSC, work towards complete denuclearisation of all the nations?
In my opinion, we should. Only conventional force puts us at a huge advantage to other countries.
SouravBji,

IMHO, The power of a powerful nation do not stem from the admission to the NSG ot UNSC but from secure and substantial political, military, economic and technological independence, eg the USA. Even if the US did not process a UNSC seat or membership of the NSG it matters not an ounce. India should get busy building this independence. The Chinese objections to membership matter not an iota if you go by my plan, ie if you can create internal capacity via prudent investment, access denial means nothing! One step further, let's say India does achieve this said independence and then proceeds to test a nuclear device. What is the world to do then?

See the US example where it has renounced both treaty obligations and international norms and nobody can do anything about it. Would you not like to have such an ability?
The independence helps you to stop others from pushing you around, the UNSC seat helps you to make certain of that.
Let's take the example of Saudis, has all the clout it needs but US can still say who they are going to fight next. Saudi needs US for their veto power against any resolution of repression.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by krisna »

^^^^
A country should stand on its own merit with its prowess in all fields- socioeconomic and military might.
USA irrespective of its status as UN veto member packs quite a punch. No other veto holding member can outdo it.

India should also develop its prowess in all fileds- socioeconomic and military including nuclear option. Even if it will take decades- this strength is long lasting.

UNO veto membership is ok as long as UNO exists.Still countries like usa china Russia etc can armtwist us if we are not strong.Also it will fail when uno fails. (recall precursor of uno and world wars etc )

Many multinational organisations come and go, but a nation will remain strong irrespective of them.

JMTs
May be a little offtopic .
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Sanatanan »

"Lisa wrote (28 Jun 2018)
<quote> . . . . India should get busy building this independence. . . . <Unquote>
+1

"krisna wrote (29 Jun2018)
<quote> A country should stand on its own merit with its prowess in all fields- socioeconomic and military might. . . . <unquote>
+1

"RoyG wrote (29 Jun 2018)
<quote> Kakodkar recently came out saying if he could go back he would do MSR instead of sodium fast. . . . <unquote>
I wonder if this provides hint that Dr Kakodkar is now ready to jump out of the 'in-launching-over-past-several-decades-AHWR' ship onto the 'not-yet-fully-on-paper-Molten Salt Reactor' plan!

I speculate: P5+friends will do their utmost to deflect India from Stage 3 and Th reactors, because, if India is able to achieve even a modicum of success [keeping aside any cost considerations, just as it was when U235 enrichment was begun in USA and other countries in preparation for WW-II] in Th breeding technology (particularly the out-of-reactor-breeding concept), then every Th232 atom is a potential U233 atom in India's possession (which is just as good as U235 atom if not better)!

However, in my view, as long as operations of all nuclear facilities are by GoI, as Dr Bhabha envisaged and as it is now, concept of application of concept of "proliferation-resistant-fuel" to India is meaningless, since India is a sovereign country. I cannot visualise India being it own "terrorist" stealing its own spent fuel containing fissionable atoms. Criteria could be different if operation of nuclear facilities are handed-over to non-governmental agencies.

Just my thoughts, of course.

Edited once to strike out one instance of concept of
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by mody »

RoyG wrote:
mody wrote:
We are already an "Unofficial Nuclear Weapon State". How exactly is NSG membership going to change that? I thought NSG membership will change the label to Official Nuclear Weapon State or more correctly it should be globally accepted Nuclear Weapons state(GANWS). The distiction being that GANWS are allowed to trade freely in nuclear technology and also develop their own nuclear technology. Those who are not globally accepted, don't have the freedom to trade freely in nuclear technology and materials, except under special bilateral agrrements, which should also be agreed to by the grand ayotollahs like the US.
With NSG membership, it allows us to freely trade with all other NSG members for nuclear technology and materials. Moreover, it also allows to export civilian nuclear power plants to most countries around the world, as long as the plants are under IAEA safeguard.
Now, the difference is that all other members of the NSG are NPT signatories. If India is admitted in NSG, then we become a GANWS, which alters the NPT. NPT recognizes only 5 GANWS and that is the same with NSG also.

Apart from the trade aspects, NSG also allows its members to develop nuclear technology freely.

This part bring us to my original question, which is that does it also allow us to conduct hot nuclear tests, without attracting sanctions? Spent fuel reprocessing technology is not something that a lot of states are itching to supply to us. I don't think that will happen very soon, even if we are admitted into NSG. Since we are not a signatory to CTBT, I think that if we get membership of NSG and hence get recognition as GANWS, then it will allow is to conduct another round of hot nuclear tests and if we are fully satisfied, then we can go ahead and sign the CTBT thereafter and also participate in discussions of FMCT. MTCR did the same for us. With our entry into MTCR, the biggest change has been that we can not increase the range to missiles like Brahmos. Other then that, there was no real need for India to enter into MTCR. We were never going to sell any kind of missiles having a range greater then 300 Kms or payload greater then 300-500 Kgs. We were already complying with all provisions of MTCR in letter and spirit, before we were part of it. Being part of it, only removed the restriction placed on us.

I think the NSG membership will also do the same for us.
I look at all these groups as a stepping stone to UNSC seat which is why China is opposing. If India is apart of 4/4 of the elite global weapon tech and nuclear bodies with a big economy and population w/ nuclear weapons, it will be hard to keep it away from the high table which controls the destiny of the planet. India's UNSC membership will also boost Japan's prospects which will give us even more leverage in Asia over China which is why Russia and US both support Indias candidature.

So far China has shirked its responsibility to put forth the Asian world view b/c they are still colonialized by Hegel. I think the UNSC and the world can benefit from solutions generated from the Indian context in areas like cultural protection, happiness, etc.

The next phase of global peace will come through FMCT, CTBT ratification, etc. w/ countries able to leap frog in development due to tech, global mafia needs to maintain its power. its imperative that we are apart of these negotiations.
I doubt our pursuit of NSG membership is solely for getting us closer to being a permanent member of UNSC.

It should be directly related to our Nuclear program, both civilian and military. For civilian we can already get foreign companies to come and build reactors in India, if the commercial and liability details can be worked out. With the Russian VVER model, there is nothing to stop us from contracting for a dozen more reactors, if we wanted to. All of them would be under IAEA safegaurd and the fuel for the reactors can either come from Russia itself, or we can import Uranuim and enrich the same. Number of countries like Australia and Canada have agreed to supply Uranium to us. All this, without NSG, just bilateral deals with various countries concerned.
The only thing that NSG membership may change for India, is that it will allow us to also export our civilan nuclear reactors to other countries and have them under IAEA safeguard.


On the military front, what we need from others is perhaps fuel re-processing technology(also applicable for civilian program) and further hot testing for our nuke designs. I don't think anyone will be willing to give us re-processing techonology, even after we are part of NSG.
That leaves the question of hot nuclear testing.
Will NSG membership allow us to conduct another round of hot tests or not? That is the question. Would it lead to India being suspended from NSG membership, if we test after becoming members or being completely thrown out? All this would depend on support from the US and to a smaller extent from Russia and France. With Trump also favouring new tests for US nukes or tests to develop newer designs, maybe we can get away with another round of hot tests after becoming NSG members, if we promise to sign the CTBT within a reasonable of time of conducting the tests.
NSG membership will also get India global acceptance as a Nuclear power.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Supratik »

We will not test unless a NWS member breaks the consensus and tests or there is a military emergency.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

mody wrote:
RoyG wrote:
I look at all these groups as a stepping stone to UNSC seat which is why China is opposing. If India is apart of 4/4 of the elite global weapon tech and nuclear bodies with a big economy and population w/ nuclear weapons, it will be hard to keep it away from the high table which controls the destiny of the planet. India's UNSC membership will also boost Japan's prospects which will give us even more leverage in Asia over China which is why Russia and US both support Indias candidature.

So far China has shirked its responsibility to put forth the Asian world view b/c they are still colonialized by Hegel. I think the UNSC and the world can benefit from solutions generated from the Indian context in areas like cultural protection, happiness, etc.

The next phase of global peace will come through FMCT, CTBT ratification, etc. w/ countries able to leap frog in development due to tech, global mafia needs to maintain its power. its imperative that we are apart of these negotiations.
I doubt our pursuit of NSG membership is solely for getting us closer to being a permanent member of UNSC.

It should be directly related to our Nuclear program, both civilian and military. For civilian we can already get foreign companies to come and build reactors in India, if the commercial and liability details can be worked out. With the Russian VVER model, there is nothing to stop us from contracting for a dozen more reactors, if we wanted to. All of them would be under IAEA safegaurd and the fuel for the reactors can either come from Russia itself, or we can import Uranuim and enrich the same. Number of countries like Australia and Canada have agreed to supply Uranium to us. All this, without NSG, just bilateral deals with various countries concerned.
The only thing that NSG membership may change for India, is that it will allow us to also export our civilan nuclear reactors to other countries and have them under IAEA safeguard.


On the military front, what we need from others is perhaps fuel re-processing technology(also applicable for civilian program) and further hot testing for our nuke designs. I don't think anyone will be willing to give us re-processing techonology, even after we are part of NSG.
That leaves the question of hot nuclear testing.
Will NSG membership allow us to conduct another round of hot tests or not? That is the question. Would it lead to India being suspended from NSG membership, if we test after becoming members or being completely thrown out? All this would depend on support from the US and to a smaller extent from Russia and France. With Trump also favouring new tests for US nukes or tests to develop newer designs, maybe we can get away with another round of hot tests after becoming NSG members, if we promise to sign the CTBT within a reasonable of time of conducting the tests.
NSG membership will also get India global acceptance as a Nuclear power.
No point speculating. Hot testing is closed for the foreseeable future.

We didn't jump through all these hoops w/ IAEA, US, etc. just to export some puny reactors to third world countries.

Being part of all these groups however does give us quite a bit of pull when it comes to penalizing countries including those who inimical to our interests and therefore does give us additional weight for UNSC seat as well as any future talks on FMCT and other related issues.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by souravB »

+1
There is a very very important strategic interest of India in getting the NSG membership. World will very soon move towards Thorium based nuclear power. India has the largest deposit of Thorium. We could freely utilize our membership for exporting.
Most western countries are not working on this front for having very limited Thorium. We are and given time would be able to crack this wide open.
We could be the most influential country or atleast self sufficient in energy needs.
This below video actually made me interested in researching about it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by mody »

souravB wrote:+1
World will very soon move towards Thorium based nuclear power. India has the largest deposit of Thorium. We could freely utilize our membership for exporting.

Care to back up your claim that the world will soon be moving to Thorium based Nuclear power!! Except for India, no major country is doing any serious research in this. In fact the share of Nuclear power in total power generation the world over, is set to decline for the next 10 years.

Even in our case, moving to a Thorium based reactor, will take minimum 15 years in the absolute best case scenario. Worst case scenario is anyones guess.


Somehow the contention that we are working so hard to get into the NSG only to buttress our global standing and make our case for permanent UNSC membership stronger, does not wash with me.

There has to be a direct connection with our Nuclear program, both civilian and military. Just what exactly will be the benefits, is what needs to be understood.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by souravB »

mody wrote:
Care to back up your claim that the world will soon be moving to Thorium based Nuclear power!! Except for India, no major country is doing any serious research in this. In fact the share of Nuclear power in total power generation the world over, is set to decline for the next 10 years.
In my post I said that the World moves toward Thorium based nuclear power, not it is going to be the new main power source. Thorium instead of Uranium would be preferred as a fuel. Nuclear generation is decreasing because using Uranium is getting non-viable for laundry list of reasons. and I already said most western countries are not doing any research because of not having much deposit of it.
Even in our case, moving to a Thorium based reactor, will take minimum 15 years in the absolute best case scenario. Worst case scenario is anyones guess.
It doesn't matter how much time it takes. A country like India if wants to grow does not have much choice than to use high density power sources like nuclear. Wind firms and solar plants take way too much land to be much viable options for large scale power generation.
Somehow the contention that we are working so hard to get into the NSG only to buttress our global standing and make our case for permanent UNSC membership stronger, does not wash with me.

There has to be a direct connection with our Nuclear program, both civilian and military. Just what exactly will be the benefits, is what needs to be understood.
With Thorium there is not much connection to military usage, and it is for the better. it is better to have something strategic for negotiation not destruction.
And for the benefits, all the benefits of nuclear power generation and some more with comparison to Uranium but lesser disadvantages.
You should watch the video, you will get a better idea of the advantages.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by arshyam »

An old article, but something I came across only today. Makes for grim reading.

List of Indian Nuclear Scientists who died mysterious deaths - IndiaFacts
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Karthik S »

arshyam wrote:An old article, but something I came across only today. Makes for grim reading.

List of Indian Nuclear Scientists who died mysterious deaths - IndiaFacts
Read it long time back in rediff. But has the new govt taken up the investigation ? Didn't see any followup on this.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Neshant »

The revival of the global nuclear power industry will take place around such innovations instead of giant sized nuclear reactor behemoths we see today.

I hope India directs it's efforts at building commerical grade compact fusion reactors now that it has developed compact fission reactors for the nuclear powered subs. It would require at !east a decade of R&D however and investments.

------

Lockheed Martin Now Has a Patent For Its Potentially World Changing Fusion Reactor

Image

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19 ... on-reactor
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by chetak »

souravB wrote:
mody wrote:
Care to back up your claim that the world will soon be moving to Thorium based Nuclear power!! Except for India, no major country is doing any serious research in this. In fact the share of Nuclear power in total power generation the world over, is set to decline for the next 10 years.
In my post I said that the World moves toward Thorium based nuclear power, not it is going to be the new main power source. Thorium instead of Uranium would be preferred as a fuel. Nuclear generation is decreasing because using Uranium is getting non-viable for laundry list of reasons. and I already said most western countries are not doing any research because of not having much deposit of it.
Even in our case, moving to a Thorium based reactor, will take minimum 15 years in the absolute best case scenario. Worst case scenario is anyones guess.
It doesn't matter how much time it takes. A country like India if wants to grow does not have much choice than to use high density power sources like nuclear. Wind firms and solar plants take way too much land to be much viable options for large scale power generation.
Somehow the contention that we are working so hard to get into the NSG only to buttress our global standing and make our case for permanent UNSC membership stronger, does not wash with me.

There has to be a direct connection with our Nuclear program, both civilian and military. Just what exactly will be the benefits, is what needs to be understood.
With Thorium there is not much connection to military usage, and it is for the better. it is better to have something strategic for negotiation not destruction.
And for the benefits, all the benefits of nuclear power generation and some more with comparison to Uranium but lesser disadvantages.
You should watch the video, you will get a better idea of the advantages.

Hundreds of thousands of tons of thorium rich sands from kerala were smuggled out during the previous regimes. No clear idea as to who was the actual beneficiary.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Katare »

Why would anyone smuggle out thorium sands while it is freely available all over the world. What would people do with it anyhow ? Good export opportunity for India.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Prem »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 211019.ece
₹948 crore lost due to lack of trained manpower at Kudankulam nuclear plant: CAG
The NPCIL did not properly assess the level of expertise needed for refuelling before shutting down the reactor in 2015, say the government auditor.The Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) suffered a loss of ₹947.99 crore due to lack of trained manpower that resulted in the delay in restarting a reactor at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in 2015, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India has said.The NPCIL planned to undertake refuelling of the Unit 1 of the plant between May and July 2015 when it was shut down for 60 days. “However, the NPCIL belatedly realised that experience of its own manpower was limited and decided to enter [into] a new contract with Moscow-based ASE for deputation of Russian specialists,” the CAG said in its audit report for 2016-17 put on its official website.A new contract was signed between the NPCIL and the ASE in August 2015 for engaging specialists at a cost that was 76% more than what it would have incurred had the state- run corporation deployed its own manpower, the audit said. “As engagement of Russian specialists was considered after the shutdown, the NPCIL had no option but to accept higher rate without any scope of significant negotiation in view of time constraint,” it said.The audit also noticed that instead of the planned shutdown of 60 days, the unit was closed for 222 days. “The NPCIL took 162 days more than the estimated 60 days for restarting Unit 1. The decision to shut down and execute the refuelling work on its own without evaluating and ensuring technical competency before the shutdown was not prudent,” the CAG noted.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by dinesha »

Trust and Leadership: The Art of the US-India Nuclear Deal
Learning the lessons of 13 years ago.
https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/trust-a ... lear-deal/
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by chetak »

Katare wrote:Why would anyone smuggle out thorium sands while it is freely available all over the world. What would people do with it anyhow ? Good export opportunity for India.


RICH N-FUEL AT TN MAFIA’S MERCY?
RICH N-FUEL AT TN MAFIA’S MERCY?

Friday, 01 January 2016 | Kumar Chellappan | Chennai

The Indian Rare Earths Ltd, a public sector undertaking has ordered a vigilance probe into the charge that India’s rich thorium resources, a nuclear fuel crucial for the energy security of the country is being “robbed and smuggled” by a sand mafia with the active support of the company insiders.

A group of engineers and technicians of IRE Ltd at Manavalakurichi in Kanyakumari district had alleged that a section of the management was hand in glove with sand mafia to rob the Thorium-rich sand from the region . Thorium is a banned item under the Atomic Energy Act of India and could be handled only by the Department of Atomic Energy.

The IRE , a unit of the DAE, saw a stand off in November 2015 between the staff and management following the latter’s directive to fill ilmenite in bags bearing the insignia of V V Minerals Ltd , a private sand mining company.

Though the bags were withdrawn following resistance by the employees, the management issued an order directing employees not to bring mobile phones inside the company, said an employee who took the pictures of the bags and alerted union leaders.

The employees allege that a section of the management is hand in glove with the sand mafia. “We are shocked by the unusual number of senior managers resigning from IRE Ltd and joining VV Minerals Ltd” S Ramachandran, vice-president, IRE Employees Union told The Pioneer. He said these engineers who had joined IRE Ltd as trainees gained experience in metallurgy and mining and shifted their loyalty to the private company which offered more salary and commission. “But what is unethical is that they provided the private company with details of the IRE’s customers and markets, which are highly classified information,” said a senior IRE staff.

Four top executives of the IRE Ltd joined the private company which has succeeded in bagging all the previous export contracts held by the public sector. “Even some of the serving engineers and managers are working as conduits of the private company,” charged Ramachandran who pointed out that the Union Government’s opening up of beach sand mining to private entrepreneurs in 2008 has resulted in the present state of affairs.” He also said that the manager in charge of marketing was bidding his time to switch over to the private company at the right moment.

D Singh, the young chairman and managing director, IRE Ltd told The Pioneer on Thursday that a vigilance probe was on ito allegations of sand smuggling and the axis between the private group and a section of IRE management.

The Manavalakurichi unit, one of the four units of the IRE Ltd is tasked with the mining of ilmenite, garnet, zircon, silmenite and monazite, materials which command premium in international market. “It is the brand name IRE which made these materials the most sought after commodities in global market,” one of the IRE Ltd engineers told The Pioneer. A tonne of monazite mined by IRE Ltd costs Rs five lakhs per tonne in the market. This is because of the presence of thorium, a material which could be used as fuel in nuclear power reactors.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, 30 per cent of the global thorium reserve is concentrated in the Manavalakurichi- Chavara(Kerala) stretch. Once India’s Advanced Heavy Water Reactor becomes operational, it could be powered with Thorium, making India less dependent on other countries for nuclear fuel.

“IRE had licenses to mine from Midalam, a sea shore village. But the management allowed these licenses to lapse by not mining in the allocated lands. Meanwhile VV Minerals bought over all lands surrounding the IRE land. The company made access impossible for the IRE to the latter’s own mining areas,” said a senior IRE employee..

Over the last four years, the profit made by IRE Ltd has come down, said Suresh Gopinath, a young auditor. “The company which had made a profit of Rs157 crore in 2012-2013 has to content with a mere Rs66 lakh in 2014-2015. This is a matter of concern,” said Gopinath. It is strange that VV Minerals Ltd, a late entrant to the sector is bagging all the export awards for the last one decade even as the fortunes of IRE Ltd has taken a dive for the worst.

The employees alleged that thorium-rich sand is illegally exported from Tamil Nadu coast to a destination in Sri Lanka from where the consignment makes its onward journey to China and Europe.

Rejoinder :

VV Mineral denies charges of thorium smuggling

PNS | New Delhi: Tamil Nadu-based VV Mineral (VVM) has refuted allegations leveled in an article — “Rich N-fuel at TN mafia’s mercy” — published in The Pioneer on January 1.

In a rejoinder, the company has said that it was in no way involved in reported smuggling Thorium, a nuclear fuel crucial for the energy security, sand mafia with the active support of the company insiders. “The author has resorted to suggestive and indirect references to our company to corroborate the purported smuggling or robbing of Thorium, thereby making serious allegations on us directly,” the rejoinder said.

The company said that article did not substantiate any facts relating to the title but resorts only to listing of complaints like

The rejoinder said that article relied on conjecture patronising one Mr Ramakrishnan of IREL, Manavalakurichi, who thrives in defaming the VVM. “One such claim is about ex-employees of IREL joining VVM leading to loss of markets and sensitive information. We don’t compete with Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL) as alleged in the article, as we cater to different market segments,” it said. Thorium is derived from Monazite sands. Monazite mining is controlled by AERB and has remained off-limits to private entities. Only IREL, a PSU, has been permitted to process it, it said
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Katare »

Chetak,
From what i can gather from the article is that mining and export of those sands are legal mining and export activities and have nothing to with Thorium. Thorium is discarded as muddy residue while refining for rare earth metal those ores.

The news is about corruption by officials or a psu who is helping private competitor export what the PSU mined for export.

As of now Thorium hardly has any major use and almost non in nuclear industry. Thorium unlike Uranium is widely available everywhere in the world. A lot of mining companies struggle with disposing off excess Thorium they find as impurity in the ore they mine.

I don’t see any UPA conspiracy of smuggling Thorium out of India in it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Snehashis »

Washington's waiver: India inches closer to NSG membership
Against the background of intense speculation about US President Donald Trumps growing indifference to Indias security needs and the landmark India-US Nuclear Cooperation Agreement came the dramatic announcement of the "Tier 1 waiver" for India. This exception from the export control regime will allow the US to export sensitive technology to India without individual licences or approval from Congress, where anti-India interest groups used to hold them up through filibusters.
India is a member of three of the four international export control regimes including the Australia Group, the Wassenaar Arrangement and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). These developments, along with the civil nuclear cooperation agreement with US, have also strengthened India's case for permanent membership of the UN Security Council.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by SSridhar »

‘India gained exponentially from U.S. nuclear deal’ - The Hindu
India has gained exponentially from the Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear deal, said former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, at an event to mark 10 years since U.S. nuclear restrictions were lifted on India. He listed permanent access to nuclear fuel and a change in international perception as the biggest benefits for India since the U.S. Congress passed the deal in September 2008.

“Today we have long term agreements for fuel with at least a dozen countries. From being a target of technology denial regimes, and also [being targeted for nuclear] testing, we are now not a target. No one now objects when India conducts a missile test,” said Mr. Saran, who was subsequently Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s special envoy and Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board.

Three errors

Speaking at the same function, organised by the Society for Policy Studies, former Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar said India’s decision to go ahead with the civilian nuclear deal in 2008 was an effort to reverse “three strategic errors”.

“There was the error of partition, where we lost our territory, the error of economics where many of the reforms of the 90s should have come earlier, and on the nuclear side, had we pushed our nuclear programme as consistently as China did in the 1950s, we could have made the Non Proliferation Treaty deadline.”

Speaking about China’s opposition in 2016 to India’s membership application for the Nuclear Suppliers group (NSG), Mr. Saran said he didn’t think it was “likely” that the membership would come through in the “near future,” although, Mr. Jaishankar said he would “not rule it out,” given geopolitical shifts that could change China’s perceptions.


Cut-off date

The Nuclear Suppliers group had made 1967 the cut-off date for declaring nuclear powers, which India missed as it conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, which resulted in sanctions and cutting off of assistance from western countries. In 1998, after the Pokhran tests, India faced further sanctions, which led to many hardships, said Mr. Jaishankar, as he described the journey to 2005, when India and the U.S. signed a breakthrough defence framework agreement that changed the course of the relationships.

Both Mr. Saran and Mr. Jaishankar were part of the Indian diplomatic team that travelled to the U.S. in July 2008, and negotiated the contours of the agreement that would have to be cleared by the U.S. Congress where many opposed the George Bush plan to end nuclear restrictions on India and begin nuclear trade. “Our biggest problem was that a gentleman called Barack Obama posed the most difficulties about the deal and he was not even prepared to meet us,” said Mr. Jaishankar, to laughs from the audience, as he described “killer amendments” that the former U.S. Senator, who later became U.S. President, tried to introduce.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by kumarn »

This is intriguing..."'India’s decision to go ahead with the civilian nuclear deal in 2008 was an effort to reverse “three strategic errors”.

“There was the error of partition, where we lost our territory'

How is the deal supposed to reverse partition error? Can some guru please help throw some light please?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Haridas »

^^^ to undo one amongst the 3 strategic errors.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by dinesh_kimar »

^ I dont believe this hogwash by Jaishankar /Saran. They are Gujaralists who havent really studied history / geopolitics.

Around 1998-2000, the Chinese had 8-10 Destroyers (4 local Junk + 4 Soviet based), compared to our 3 Rajput Class + 1 Delhi. Naval Aviation was land based A5 Harbin , J-8 and H-6 bomber (comparable to our Jaguar / Tu-142 Bear).

The USA was top dog with 10 Carrier battle groups, 50-60 aircraft per carrier, etc.

The Chinese never said, "IT was historic / strategic mistake that PLA was given priority in 1950s over the Navy."
They quietly built up their capability.

When budget is less and tech gap is huge, the obvious solution is to deploy tactical nuke weapons . This scares / pauses the enemy, and creates conditions to grow in peace and develop capability and numbers.

That is why N. Korea will never be attacked by USA.

N. Korea did beautiful thing by testing 110 KT thermonuclear bomb. This gives them 25 years of peace (no warmongering threats) and capability (eg. defence budget need not be increased for every threat, grow their MIC in peace iteratively)

What Saran / Jaishankar should have done is advised us properly, "Dont run to USA seeking approval, make yourself secure first by testing / deploying nukes properly. This brings peace and prosperity."

What goo sh*t are these guys propogating abt 90s economic reforms? 1950 Nuclear policy ?

Are they serious?

The advantages of nuclear deal still remains unclear, and our largest suppliers are not America. Supplies can be obtained in other ways as well, with Govt. to Govt. agreement with Russia, Gabon, Niger, Khazakstan and Australia.

Japan and China obtain significant nuclear materials this way. Rare earths are anyway present in India, but our industrial implementation is quite bad.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Haridas »

^^ I like it.

Saran was sour grapes and unimpressive when I met him last at CPR Chanakya puri ~10 yrs ago.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by RoyG »

Haridas wrote:^^ I like it.

Saran was sour grapes and unimpressive when I met him last at CPR Chanakya puri ~10 yrs ago.
They didn't have the foresight to see that by the time India fully implements nuclear plan, fusion and renewable will be the norm around the world. We are always 10 years behind. Don't believe me? Just look at what that Kakodkar joker has said about LMFBR that India is currently pressing on with. He has more faith in the MSR which was devised decades before and if he could go back in time he would switch designs. What was he doing all that time then? Mass automation and digital communication and media will also add another dimension to the equation. I can guarantee, if we had tested, world would've actually begged us with incentives like NSG in exchange for calling it quits. Just look at how NK was rewarded for supposedly bad behavior. In this sense I actually agree with BK when he says it pays to be disruptive. People sit up and respect you. Our strategic thinkers are still stuck in this weird Nehruvian conception of peace and universal brotherhood both of which are actually alien to our culture. Diplomacy and war has actually dominated much of India's history and it has only been given a cleaner look in the modern age.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by ramana »

My comments on the Saran/Jaishankar speeches.
- NSG was not formed in 1967. NSG is renamed London Suppliers Group created by UK after India's 1974 PNE. So fundamental facts are wrong.

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Suppliers_Group
The NSG was founded in response to the Indian nuclear test in May 1974[1] and first met in November 1975. The test demonstrated that certain non-weapons specific nuclear technology could be readily turned to weapons development. Nations already signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) saw the need to further limit the export of nuclear equipment, materials or technology. Another benefit was that non-NPT and non-Zangger Committee nations, then specifically France, could be brought in.

A series of meetings in London from 1975 to 1978 resulted in agreements on the guidelines for export; these were published as INFCIRC/254 (essentially the Zangger "Trigger List") by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Listed items could only be exported to non-nuclear states if certain International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards were agreed to or if exceptional circumstances relating to safety existed.

The name of the "London Club" was due to the series of meetings in London. It has also been referred to as the London Group, or the London Suppliers Group.
Next to the three errors:

1) Partition: The fundamental goal of the freedom struggle was to get rid of British rule. Partition was in British hands and would have done it whether Indians agreed or not. It was due to great power calculations. However I agree the power to reverse it was in India hands and Congress instead of reversing it solidified it and became the guarantor of Pakistan since Gandhi's fasts to transfer Reserve bank funds on-wards to even now in Rahul Gandhi's speeches.

2) Economic growth: This pointing out is laughable. When British left India all the sterling balances which amounted to $11B were with Great Britain. GB refused to return the money and came up with a watered down surplus weapon sales program which Nehru used to arm Navy and Air Force and not the Army even though the major threat was land based since time immemorial. Every NRI knows it takes a decade to accumulate money to buy a house and be on path to financial growth. In case of India due to muddled and kleptocracy Congress policies it took the financial crisis of 1990 to trigger economic reforms > In thirty years after that India was a major economic power. And even then it took till 2017 to pass the GST which created the giant India economy. Congress retained the octoroi controls created by British to create barriers for internal trade. This removal of octroi could have been done by 1967 i.e 20 years after Independence.

3)Nuke testing before 1968. This was not possible. Nuke test under peaceful Nehru was impossible. After the 1962 debacle he should have authorized the nuke program especially after Mao informed him in 1955 that he was pursuing the nuke weapons program. Yet we see no evidence of his action. Right after LBS authorized the SNEP in 1964, India got the 1965 war with Pakistan. And after winning 1965 war, both LBS and Bhabha died under mysterious circumstances. Indira Gandhi authorized the nuke test only in Dec 1971 after the Task Force 74 was sent by US to Bay of Bengal. The treaty with Soviet Union was vague and Mrs Gandhi realized India would be alone if attacked by a super power. In other words India did not cross the threshold unless it was required. And even here she had to term it PNE to lose its sting as MEA advised her not to violate the NPT in case of future accession of as weapons power. Morarji Desai the peaceful PM converted the PNE into weapon designs. Rajiv Gandhi ordered the production of these after full irrefutable confirmation that Pakis already had nuke weapons.

It would be good if these two went and read the archives thoroughly and not speak in front of unknowing public.

As Jaishankar was primary negotiator of the IUCNA, he still bats for accession to the NSG as that removes the stigma of the post 1974 PNE sanctions. However he should articulate what benefits India would accrue with accession to NSG which are not there now?

I agree with Shyam Saran who si more realist that India wont be admitted to NSG.
The US agreement was on the surety China would block the membership.

Indian diplomats have the penchant to make a spectacle of begging bowl India even when not needed.
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India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Peregrine »

US: India meets all norms, but out of Nuclear Suppliers Group due to China's veto – PTI

WASHINGTON: India has not been able to secure membership of the because of China's veto, a senior Trump Administration official said Thursday asserting that the US will continue to advocate for New Delhi's membership in the elite grouping as it meets all the criteria.

India has been seeking entry into the 48-member elite nuclear club, which controls nuclear trade, but China has repeatedly stonewalled its bid.

While India, which is backed by the US and a number of western countries has garnered the support of a majority of the group's members, China has stuck to its stand that new members should sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), making India's entry difficult as the group is guided by the consensus principle. India is not a signatory to the NPT.

"Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is a consensus-based organization. India has not been able to secure membership as a result of opposition from China," Alice Wells the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, told a Washington audience.

"We have deemed that we're not going to limit our own cooperation with India based on a Chinese veto. Of course, we moved ahead with a STA One authorisation and we certainly believe that India meets all of the qualifications of the nuclear supplier's group and will continue to actively advocate on behalf of India's membership,” Wells said in response to a question.

She said by granting Strategic Trade Authorisation (STA-1) status, the US has placed India in the inner circle of America's closest allies.

"It reflects just the intimacy of the strategic partnership," she said in response to a question at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a top American think-tank.

The senior State Department Official hoped that the nuclear deal with India would finally see light of the day with its 10th anniversary approaching.

"With Westinghouse coming out of bankruptcy, we now have an opportunity to cross the finish line to really culminate in what was this historic process that began a decade ago: to be able to have one of our premier companies provide in some of the safest and cleanest fuel that will benefit, tens of millions of Indian citizens," she said.

"It's really another exciting chapter that we can hopefully close. Certainly, we will be supporting Westinghouse as it continues its conversations with India," she said.

US President George W Bush had signed the legislation on the Indo-US nuclear deal, approved by the US Congress, into law on October 8, 2008

Cheers Image
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

A bit puzzling and dismaying, that we have not heard of the commissioning of any new reactor, for a long time now. There are 4 under construction at Rajasthan and Gujarat. No detailed status update, even on NPC's website. No report on Apsara-2, PFBR, AHWR..
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