Anujan wrote:SSridhar wrote:Now, that bolded part is a clincher. PRC is behaving the same way the US has been. That completes the TSP-PRC relationship. Now, Pakistan would do very little to eliminate ETIM even while pretending to the Chinese otherwise. Interesting times ahead. Will TSP be able to milk the Chinese Bull, the way it did the US ? Will PRC also end up helpless like the US vis-a-vis TSP ?
In a way, Pakistan might help India taking care of PRC !
I believe that Pakistan will crack down on ETIM. Paki-US relationship is different from Paki-China relationship.
Pakis are not dancing to US tune because US interests and Paki interests dont converge. US wants a relatively stable Afghan government, Pakis dont. Because stable governments means they become nationalistic, dont recognize the durrand line and quickly tire of outside manipulation. The second most crucial issue is that Paki interests and US interests dont converge vis-a-vis India. Pakis want India to be defeated and dissected into many pieces. US wants India to become a US lackey, a market for its products and a bulwark against China -- all that means that India must stay whole, strong and friendly to the US.
It is because of these 2 reasons that Pakis are frustrated with the US. They try to defy the US, piss the US off, work behind the back of the US, take money and deceive the US and try to gain leverage against the US.
On the other hand, Paki-China relationship is different. Their interests converge vis-a-vis Afghanistan and India. Chinese want Afghan natural resources. They will pay off various terrorist tanzeems to mine Afghanistan and suck the country dry. If Pakis can guarantee a government and a bunch of thugs to protect chinese mines and operations. China will gladly agree. They have no issue with Afghanistan becoming a base for international terrorists who attack the west. Vis-a-vis India, China will gladly supply Pakistan with desired weaponry and budgetary support because India will never use its leverage against China (either through trade or in the Tibet/Taiwan issue) to protest. Pakis dont need a leverage against China, because Paki-China interests converge.
Pakis will crack down against ETIM.
Anujan ji,
Of course, I agree with you that US-Pak and PRC-Pak relationships are built on different foundations and necessities. I still believe that PRC will in all likelihood end up as helpless against Pakistan as the US. I will explain my reasoning shortly.
There are two reasons why I say that Pakistan will not eliminate ETIM. One is because Pakistan simply may not have the wherewithal to do so. ETIM is so well entrenched within the AQAM that eliminating ETIM alone may be impossible even if Pakistan desires so. It is being said that the Chinese drafted Pakistan into SCO in 2005 because one of the binding conditions of the SCO was that member nations will help one another in fight against terrorism. With its enormous leverage over Pakistan, PRC need not have resorted to this ruse to get Pakistan cracking on ETIM. Musharraf allowed maintenance of two terror camps, Kashgarabad & Hotanabad, under the guise of helping the Hajis from Xinjiang, until c. 2006 just outside Islamabad. They were shut down only in 2006 under tremendous pressure from PRC.
The then ruling clique of MMA (Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal) was in favour of ETIM. This means that the ulema of Pakistan favour separatism in Xinjiang. Nothing surprising there. No doubt that Musharraf did act against ETIM. In c. 2003, he eliminated ETIM's chief Hasan Mahsum in South Waziristan. Later that same year, he also eliminated a module of 19 ETIM foot soldiers.
The WikiLeaks report I posted above shows how PRC was convinced that the GoP would be unable to contain ETIM and sought to deal with it directly through Jama'at-e-Islami. Now, JI was (and is) an important member of MMA and the MMA are sympathetic to the Uyghur struggle. Pakistan, as a state, may profess anything to the taller, deeper and sweeter Chinese but the ulema and through them the public sympathy will be with the Uyghurs which translates into support for ETIM.
The second reason is the DNA of those Pakistanis who are presently running the nation. The members of the Establishment knew pretty well from Day One that Pakistan was a sinking ship. Their objective was to swindle as much as possible and hope Pakistan would somehow survive so that they and their progeny could continue to prosper. In the worst case, they could always move to another country, most probably a Western country. Wherever they belong to (political parties, army, feudal setup), they are out to make a quick buck and live in fond hope that their perfidy and brazenness would be condoned by one power or the other (US or PRC) so that they, as a nation, will never sink but they, as individual elites, would thrive at the cost of an increasingly weak Pakistani state. I sometimes wonder if one of the reasons for going nuclear was whether it protected Pakistan from being abandoned by the US.
That is why tactical brilliance is so prominent in Pakistan because strategic planning would need enduring some pain and giving up a lot of current comforts that the Establishment does not like. Pakistan has therefore honed its skills in the time tested technique of playing both sides simultaneously and it is a highly developed art form among the elites. This DNA cannot mutate just because China is a dear friend who foolishly transferred nuclear weapons and their delivery systems to Pakistan.
You are right about the non-convergence of the US-Pakistani interests and the convergence (I would say some overlap) of PRC-Pakistani interests. If one were to look at the relationship between US and Pakistan in the 50s, through the 80s, they never converged too. Both the parties to the contract knew that perfectly well and simply wanted to reap the best dividends for themselves while the bonhomie lasted. The US, for its nation and Pakistan for a few individuals. But, they characterized it as an anti-Communist alliance. The post 9/11 has been characterized as an anti-terrorist alliance.
Both these characterizations were patently false because Pakistan neither was interested in confronting the Communists nor the terrorists. While the rulers of Pakistan established a close relationship with the US (individually and institutionally), the people of Pakistan were never enamoured of the US. So long as massive arms aid was coming to Pakistan, and more importantly not much to India, the anti-American sentiments in the society were masked. Once that fell, anti-Americanism in all its glory erupted.
I expect a similar dichotomy or perfidy in Pakistan's relationship with PRC in tackling Uyghur separatism. After having built up Islamism to a crescendo, Pakistan cannot retreat on the Uyghur issue alone just because PRC is their friend. The Establishment may do so, but the Islamists and the society at large would not. The Establishment's efforts may therefore bear fruit sometime in eliminating an ETIM terrorist here or another there. But, ETIM would thrive on the fertile soil of Pakistan like a colony of bacteria on a Petri dish.
PRC recognized that and tried to befriend JI. But, JI itself cannot and shall not go against the larger khilafat ambitions of AQAM. Thus, I see the same anti-Chinese sentiments to prevail in Pakistan too when the time comes. The closer integration that China wants to establish between Xinjiang and Pakistan would be counter productive in the long run as far as Islamist separatism goes. The same goes for closer Chinese involvement in Afghanistan too. Once the fire of Islamist separatism is lit, it cannot be doused short of radical lobotomy. Any such attempt will invite retaliation. The Chinese will try to manage that by their close relationship with KSA, Pakistan etc and with the help of their deep pockets. But jihadis are today independent of these rulers. The AQAM are completely anti-Chinese anyway.
Paki-China bhai-bhai can be broken only if all the religious yahoos in Pakistan are enlightened to horror stories of Muslim oppression going on in China. India should play a part in bringing this to their notice.
I entirely agree with the above. That was the import of my earlier post when I said that AQAM was our best bet and India must play a semi-active role in that. Like PRC stoking some fires in India, we must do the same in Urumqi, Hotan, Kashgar. After all, parts of Xinjiang belonged to J&K which Pakistan deliberately forswore in order to win the Chinese friendship.
That's why I continue to pin my hope that "In a way, Pakistan might help India take care of PRC !"