Talk by Bharat Karnad at IISc on 30 August 2011

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Sep 2011 06:24

What are the factors that stymied Indias nuke capabilities vis-a-vis say China? Any historical perspectives?

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2011 07:40

there can probably be no more underground testing, whatever nuke development has to take place has to be in absence of testing. Reason behind this may be as vague and incredible as protecting underground tunnel network. Can't say for sure.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Sep 2011 07:45

RamaY wrote: I loved the irony in you, a man who doesn't believe in the need of TN weapons, presenting a memento to Sri BK, who proclaims that india's 20KT arsenal is not sufficient and needs TN weapons. Such is the strategic community in Bharat I think

I did not want to present the memento until I heard him demand that India's missiles should have been pulled away from their current readiness against Pakistan. That changed my view about him. Bharat Karnad knows what he is talking about.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Sep 2011 07:46

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 06 Sep 2011 07:55

shiv, essentially what BK is saying is what Arun_S was saying a while ago, isn't it? But I still don't understand why he caps the capability at 20Kt.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2011 08:28

A frightening foreign military intelligence directorate (GRU) report circulating in the Kremlin states that over the past nearly 48 hours the vast intercontinental military tunnel complex constructed by the United States Air force over the past nearly 45 years was hit with two powerful nuclear explosions at its main terminuses in Colorado and Virginia used nearly exclusively by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
According to this report, this unprecedented nuclear attack began on the evening of 22 August when one of the main air pressure relief tunnels for this CIA tunnel, located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa Florida, was forced open allowing millions of cubic feet of air to rush suddenly into the atmosphere. The unique sound of this event was captured by video during a baseball game being played at Tropicana Field near MacDill, though US officials blamed the “mystery noise” on a faulty sound system.
This GRU report, however, points out that Russian engineers are well acquainted with this unique sound as they work feverishly to prepare an additional 5,000 bomb shelters ordered by Prime Minister Putin this past spring to be completed by the end of 2012.
Russian engineers were, also, able to duplicate this unique sound this past March when they were called into the Ukraine to vent a number of deep underground tunnels from poison gas that had killed three people near Kiev and which was, likewise, captured by video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGgJlYhMPls&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgGFThlEeGE&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJaGOLL_41g&NR=1

Within a few hours of the venting of this vast tunnel complex, this report continues, a nuclear device was detonated at its western terminus located near Trinidad Colorado with the second blast occurring nearly 12 hours later at the eastern terminus near Culpeper Virginia, and both causing powerful earthquakes felt by tens of millions of Americans.
Unbeknownst to the vast majority of the American people is that the vast military tunnel network constructed since the early 1960’s under their country has cost an estimated $40 trillion and with the exception of this attack shows no sign of abating.
The only known photo of one of the massive US Air Force boring machines used to construct this vast tunnel complex was taken by Little Skull Mountain in Nevada in December 1982 and is similar in design to those used to construct the Chunnel between England and France.
Maps of these tunnels, and the underground bases associated with them, have been compiled over the years by many independent researchers along with lists of their probable locations.
The specific tunnel attacked by these nuclear devices, this GRU report says, was being used by the CIA during their moving of their headquarters and all of their assets out of their Langley Virginia location to their new base located in Denver Colorado that was begun in 2005 for reasons still not fully explained.
The GRU speculates that the timing of this attack in hitting the western terminus first, then the eastern one, was more than likely meant to “trap and destroy” whatever the CIA was currently moving through this tunnel from Langley to Denver.
Most interesting to note is that this attack comes nearly a decade to the day after the 11 September 2011 internal war between the CIA and the US military establishment that rained destruction upon America, and then the world, but whose final battle has yet to be fought, or won, by either side.
To what the final outcome of this titanic struggle will be it is not in our knowing, other than to note that when two powerful forces like these collide, and as they have done so many times in the past, the ultimate losers end up being the American people whose delight in total ignorance as to what is happening around them continues to astound the whole world. (The EU Times)

Code: Select all

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/25-Aug-2011/Russia-reports-Nuclear-explosions-hit-vast-US-military-tunnel-network

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Sep 2011 08:34

My answer for:

1. What should be the goals of India in the medium term?

Deter war individually or collectively from TSP and PRC.

2. What should be our strategy to achieve these goals?

TSP can be deterred with a strong conventional posture backed with CMD as escalation control. PRC needs to be deterred with strong conventional force backed by nuke based deterrent. PRC needs to realize they need nukes to prevail over India.

3. What role do Mahabums play in this strategy?

A large yield weapon is needed to assure PRC of MAD. Current demonstrated yields could lead to mis-perception on their part as more delivery vehicles are needed and all this leads to expense.

4. What role can a Mahabum in the basement, and a chotubum in hand play in this strategy?

I am still thinking this one. If the one in basement needs to be demonstrated then deterrent is under pressure.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Sep 2011 08:36

csharma wrote:shiv, essentially what BK is saying is what Arun_S was saying a while ago, isn't it? But I still don't understand why he caps the capability at 20Kt.

er it is the other way around. People quote Bharat Karnad - who has been in the loop before 1998, sits in on high level meetings and is in touch with the highest ranking people in the land. I don't get credit for saying what Fermi or Feynman said - they were there before me.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 06 Sep 2011 08:38

shiv wrote:
csharma wrote:shiv, essentially what BK is saying is what Arun_S was saying a while ago, isn't it? But I still don't understand why he caps the capability at 20Kt.
er it is the other way around. People quote Bharat Karnad - who has been in the loop before 1998, sits in on high levels meetings and is in touch with the highest ranking people in the land.

That's correct. BK and KS are the source of this information.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Sep 2011 08:40

habal wrote:
A frightening foreign military intelligence directorate (GRU) report circulating in the Kremlin states that over the past nearly 48 hours the vast intercontinental military tunnel complex constructed by the United States Air force over the past nearly 45 years was hit with two powerful nuclear explosions at its main terminuses in Colorado and Virginia used nearly exclusively by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
According to this report, this unprecedented nuclear attack began on the evening of 22 August when one of the main air pressure relief tunnels for this CIA tunnel, located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa Florida, was forced open allowing millions of cubic feet of air to rush suddenly into the atmosphere. The unique sound of this event was captured by video during a baseball game being played at Tropicana Field near MacDill, though US officials blamed the “mystery noise” on a faulty sound system.
This GRU report, however, points out that Russian engineers are well acquainted with this unique sound as they work feverishly to prepare an additional 5,000 bomb shelters ordered by Prime Minister Putin this past spring to be completed by the end of 2012.
Russian engineers were, also, able to duplicate this unique sound this past March when they were called into the Ukraine to vent a number of deep underground tunnels from poison gas that had killed three people near Kiev and which was, likewise, captured by video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGgJlYhMPls&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgGFThlEeGE&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJaGOLL_41g&NR=1

Within a few hours of the venting of this vast tunnel complex, this report continues, a nuclear device was detonated at its western terminus located near Trinidad Colorado with the second blast occurring nearly 12 hours later at the eastern terminus near Culpeper Virginia, and both causing powerful earthquakes felt by tens of millions of Americans.
Unbeknownst to the vast majority of the American people is that the vast military tunnel network constructed since the early 1960’s under their country has cost an estimated $40 trillion and with the exception of this attack shows no sign of abating.
The only known photo of one of the massive US Air Force boring machines used to construct this vast tunnel complex was taken by Little Skull Mountain in Nevada in December 1982 and is similar in design to those used to construct the Chunnel between England and France.
Maps of these tunnels, and the underground bases associated with them, have been compiled over the years by many independent researchers along with lists of their probable locations.
The specific tunnel attacked by these nuclear devices, this GRU report says, was being used by the CIA during their moving of their headquarters and all of their assets out of their Langley Virginia location to their new base located in Denver Colorado that was begun in 2005 for reasons still not fully explained.
The GRU speculates that the timing of this attack in hitting the western terminus first, then the eastern one, was more than likely meant to “trap and destroy” whatever the CIA was currently moving through this tunnel from Langley to Denver.
Most interesting to note is that this attack comes nearly a decade to the day after the 11 September 2011 internal war between the CIA and the US military establishment that rained destruction upon America, and then the world, but whose final battle has yet to be fought, or won, by either side.
To what the final outcome of this titanic struggle will be it is not in our knowing, other than to note that when two powerful forces like these collide, and as they have done so many times in the past, the ultimate losers end up being the American people whose delight in total ignorance as to what is happening around them continues to astound the whole world. (The EU Times)
Code: Select all
http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/25-Aug-2011/Russia-reports-Nuclear-explosions-hit-vast-US-military-tunnel-network

Errr.. This sounds too much like a Pravda conspiracy theory and we know what they are like - remember the martians walking among us, the man who had a fir tree in his stomach and other such stories.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 06 Sep 2011 08:44

shiv wrote:
I did not want to present the memento until I heard him demand that India's missiles should have been pulled away from their current readiness against Pakistan. That changed my view about him. Bharat Karnad knows what he is talking about.

Shiv: Have you read most of his works? One may agree or disagree but he is consistent in his views and is genuine. If interested, most of his works are there at cprindia.org. He in fact does not dwell too much on the controversy surrounding the TN device - for even if it was accepted as successful, his views on additional tests probably will still stay. IMO.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Sep 2011 08:45

vera_k wrote:
There is a distinction between an energy program and a weapons program. The USA has shut down nuclear energy research due to NIMBY concerns after the three mile island accident, so it is extremely plausible that the Indian program that has been actively building power plants in the interim has pulled ahead.

At the same time, he does say that the Indian weapons program is more of a "cottage industry". By definition, anything produced by a cottage industry is expected to have trouble competing with more organised means of production.

You are right about the American nuclear industry. From the Indian perspective that is a good thing . In fact fukushima IMHO can be a good thing too. Because due to public opinion most countries will stop civillian nuclear research . so india can take lead.

By cottage industry he probably meant that Indian scientist are so confident with it that they consider it simpler compared to things which are considered as super tough and almost impossible to achieve (unobtainium). It was just a compliment . though open to interpretation.

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2011 08:48

Jarita wrote: Errr.. This sounds too much like a Pravda conspiracy theory and we know what they are like - remember the martians walking among us, the man who had a fir tree in his stomach and other such stories.

fwiw the attached youtube videos validate the timeline. First the videos in that baseball game and home video and then the same videos relating to russian trials.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Sep 2011 08:51

US thing could well be a secret nuke test. cia v/s us army is surely CT.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Sep 2011 08:52

habal wrote:
Jarita wrote: Errr.. This sounds too much like a Pravda conspiracy theory and we know what they are like - remember the martians walking among us, the man who had a fir tree in his stomach and other such stories.
fwiw the attached youtube videos validate the timeline. First the videos in that baseball game and home video and then the same videos relating to russian trials.

Not doubting the event - it could have been driven by many factors - the earthquake being one of them. It is the nuclear attack tale which does not seem to have credence

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Sep 2011 08:55

It may not have been a nuclear attack.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 06 Sep 2011 08:56

sanjaykumar wrote:There is so much disinformation out of India that Karnad may be a canard.

No point in getting too excited

+1.
Bharat Karnad serves a purpose. The GoI will use the sharpest teeth when dealing with piffling issues like a peaceful dharna. Allowing this gentleman a podium for his stance would have been wetted no?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 06 Sep 2011 16:58

ramana wrote:3. What role do Mahabums play in this strategy?

A large yield weapon is needed to assure PRC of MAD. Current demonstrated yields could lead to mis-perception on their part as more delivery vehicles are needed and all this leads to expense.

Sir, you will agree with me that, currently, Russians are the most active ones in developing and deploying ballistic missiles. And which of such latest missiles carry Mahabums( MT weapons as BK insists.) RS-24 meant as a replacement to TopolM is MIRV reported to have warhead (depending on the report) as low as 150 KT. Topol-M carries single 550 KT warhead only. And which of the missiles in Us inventory carry such Mahabums? None. These two countries faces the same threat from Chinese as we are facing. Why they have not loaded their missiles with Mahabums. Trend is such that one doesn't need more delivery vehicles or Mahabums but MIRV-ed missiles.

Title should go to Mr. Gerard, another member here, who consistently displayed the advantage of MIRV over single Megaton warheads. Single Megaton warhead is now an outdated concept which means the country hasn't developed MIRV tech and the needed accuracy in delivering the warhead.

4. What role can a Mahabum in the basement, and a chotubum in hand play in this strategy?

I am still thinking this one. If the one in basement needs to be demonstrated then deterrent is under pressure.

In my understanding chotubum plays a major role in the initial stage of Nuclear escalation matrix in helping to dissuade any potential and progressing N war. Mahabums are needed only for an all out N war.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 06 Sep 2011 17:38

RamaY wrote:Kanson ji,

Thank you for the Air Marshal T. M. Asthana interview.

His interview confirms that there are weaponized tactical nukes of minimum yields, but doesn't talk about maximum yields.

True. Is it not these minimum yield tactical nukes too where tagged as dud in this same forum before?

Not to flame anyone, but to quote, Arun_S who was vocal in that episode quoted Bharat Karnad to say sub-KT devices tested in Pok-2 were also dud.

Earlier we heard such confirmation on the presence of such devices only from development agency (BARC). Now for a change we hear from User confirming the presence of such devices. Is it not a welcome start? Is it not Anil K confirmed the presence of TN weapon?

RamaY wrote:The most interesting thing is his separation of TSPA and Jihadis and India's planned action against nuclear terror.

It is a joke that he thinks that IA and GoI will "inform" Pakistan and USA about India's action in the event of a JDAM. If it took ~5yrs to determine the saffron-roots of Sam-jhoota express bombs, one can only guess how long will it take for Sri PC's academy of jokers to determine the perpetrators of a JDAM and then Sri TMA's academy of doctors would prescribe the right medicine (chemotherapy Vs conventional medicine Vs Ayurveda) so GoI can communicate the patients, TSPA and USA, that it is the most suitable therapy and take their letters of consent before starting the treatment. Wah wah! Vande Mataram!

So India's nuke policy is not only NFU, it is also NU (Never to be used) given Sri TMA's understanding/preference that Indian response in the event of a nuclear strike need not be a nuke based.

Sri TMA's interview looks like a low-level engineer's understanding of corporate strategy. It talks about the details but not the intentions, capabilities and posture.

Then he talks about his preference. Why can't he just implement the nuke policy blindly, after all we are a democratic nation and IA is subordinate to GoI?

But my preference would be to use conventional force in retaliation. I think in nine out of ten cases, this should suffice. We should continue hitting them till they raise the white flag.
He wants to give the terrorists a chance to raise the white flag even after a JDAM strike on Indian soil. Does Bharat deserves nukes with this type of noble rishi-like generals at helm?

Another reality check on India's dhimmification is
When we go in, we should seek to convince Pakistan and the USA etc —unless you are sure you don’t care what they think. But that’s unlikely in India.

Mera Bharat Mahan!!!

Before you go deriding the General, pls take into account, he is not addressing only to BRF members or anyone who think only from the India point of view. His interview will be read by the whole world. Consider suppose such statements as you desired coming from Chinese General on using N weapon against India or US. will that not create great ruckus? So he has to moderate his statement considering the audience.

In matters concerning Strategic, messages are conveyed by dropping hints. Can you not see any hints dropped in that interview? There are many, some of them:
1) If there is any JDAM attack, India will respond in Kind.
2) Gov/SFC already rehearsed such JDAM situation keeping everyone in loop.
3) We do have the capabilities to attack accurately when & where needed.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Sep 2011 17:46

We will have a credible N-deterrent only when we have our SSBNs at sea on patrol.Till then the air and mobile land-launched missiles need to have their warheads close at hand and ready within minutes to be fitted and readied for launch.I cannot udnerstand how with a limited inventory of N-missiles 100-150 one presumes,that we can have a ready "menu" at hand for some sort of "fast-food" N-service.Our N-assets will not be bunched up together at one vulnerable location but spread around the country and its borders.Secondly for our tactical missiles with N-warhead,their speed of need is perhaps even greater as they need to be flexible enough to respond to the ground commander's requirements especially as Pak has hinted at a first use of N-weapons against an IA thrust (Cold Start) deep into Paki territory.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 06 Sep 2011 17:51

^ Do you know, during Nuclear conflict what type of missiles are launched first? It is land-based/air-launched missiles. Sea-based missiles are for secondary strike.

Between Air/Land based missiles, it is more likely Air-launched missiles/weapons will be used first.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Sep 2011 17:57

Nice well informed post from Kanson . There is one thing I intend to clear here. There is a common misconception that countries the size of Pakistan can be wiped out completely. It would take close to 1200 1 MT warheads to do such a thing . The consequences of doing such a thing would be immense for the whole world . God knows what geological changes can occur after that. That for practical purpose is impossible .

The second thing is that it is highly unlikely that the entire arsenal of India can be wiped out in a first strike . There are several ways of decoying / hiding missiles .

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 Sep 2011 19:21

Fair point Kansonji.

I agree that audience analysis is required. While you focus on 'international community' as the intended audience, I think the real audience should be the terror outfits and their organizational/ideological supporters like TSPA, PRC, USA and KSA. Even then, my main concern is about the politicization of Indian response. But I am willing to accept what the Air Marshal says for now.

When we go in, we should seek to convince Pakistan and the USA etc —unless you are sure you don’t care what they think. But that’s unlikely in India.

My read of that interview -

1. Gov/SFC already rehearsed such JDAM situation keeping everyone in loop.
2. The most probable response to a JDAM situation is conventional response
3. That India cares more about what TSP/USA thinks than what its response should be. And the general thinks that is due to the political situation in India, based on above quote.
4. Given UPA2 witch-hunt maneuvers on related incidents, it is most likely that a JDAM situation will be rubbed as karmic-response for India.

On a positive note, I think what the general is saying is that India is prepared to take a JDAM attack to fight the war another day; shows our willingness to survive.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 Sep 2011 19:24

gakakkad wrote:Nice well informed post from Kanson . There is one thing I intend to clear here. There is a common misconception that countries the size of Pakistan can be wiped out completely. It would take close to 1200 1 MT warheads to do such a thing . The consequences of doing such a thing would be immense for the whole world . God knows what geological changes can occur after that. That for practical purpose is impossible .

The second thing is that it is highly unlikely that the entire arsenal of India can be wiped out in a first strike . There are several ways of decoying / hiding missiles .

We have seen this logic before. By this logic, nukes are no deterrent to begin with. The ignorant Japanese did not know that in 1945.

What is the purpose of Indian second strike -
1. If it survived the first strike (as it would take 3x1200 1MT bums and no one has such arsenal)
2. If it is known that the Indian second strike cannot destroy Pakistan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Sep 2011 19:27

Kanson, Where did I say there is a need for a mahabum. Please do take the time to read what I worte and you quoted. Addressing me as Sir doesn't take away from the fact that its your own perception and not a reply to my quote.

Further you are also mistaken on the matter of sub kt tests. Arun_S never said that. Just because he isn't here doesn't mean one can claim he said something.
Anyway we all know each other's stands and as time goes along kaal will show who is right for both cant be!

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Sep 2011 20:08

RamaY wrote:
gakakkad wrote:Nice well informed post from Kanson . There is one thing I intend to clear here. There is a common misconception that countries the size of Pakistan can be wiped out completely. It would take close to 1200 1 MT warheads to do such a thing . The consequences of doing such a thing would be immense for the whole world . God knows what geological changes can occur after that. That for practical purpose is impossible .

The second thing is that it is highly unlikely that the entire arsenal of India can be wiped out in a first strike . There are several ways of decoying / hiding missiles .
We have seen this logic before. By this logic, nukes are no deterrent to begin with. The ignorant Japanese did not know that in 1945.

What is the purpose of Indian second strike -
1. If it survived the first strike (as it would take 3x1200 1MT bums and no one has such arsenal)
2. If it is known that the Indian second strike cannot destroy Pakistan.

The purpose of second strike would be to cause severe damage to the Paki's or lizard military/ economically important areas . In case of Pakistan it would mean a huge portion of their military and industry because not much exists in the name of it. In case of PRC it ll mean a sizeable portion of their economic regions and some military ones. In case of China that would be a good enough deterrent. Because they give importance to their economy unlike the Paki's . China's ultimate aim is to become a superpower. And beginning a nuclear war with India would be to destroy the aim forever without doubt even if it destroys India. A strike on their industrial districts could mean loss of trillions . So we have a deterrent . In fact one might argue that our deterrent is better against China than against pakistan. Because the Chines would be averse to an economic loss couple of trillion dollars . While Paki's have a suicide mentality in any case even if it means wiping out whatever rudimentary source of income it may have.

That can be done with a fission based devices too. As kanson said , an MIRV is by far a more feasible option . And there has been a talk of A-5 being an MIRV .

I am not denying on the long term need of an H-bomb or further testing of our designs.

All I intend to say is that testing them right now is not feasible at all . The sanctions could be crippling. ISRO and DRDO are said to have suffered a good deal out of this. The western economy is in a bad shape. The politicians in the US are taking a battering . If India test they ll attempt showing bravado and impose all sanctions possible.

I don't see the Chinese attacking in this decade . They are beginning to have economic troubles. It has been discussed in the PRC military thread that it is very difficult for them to do a large scale attack through tibet due to various reasons. They are consolidating their military programs. An unprovoked attack on India by the PRC and that too a nuclear one will ensure unbearable international reactions. Please don't say that the world does not care etc . Because if they attack India and for the sake of argument lets say destroy India , everyone will be very scared . They have trouble with taiwan , vietnam , Philippines etc. US has major investments in Taiwan. PRC views conquering taiwan far more important that Arunachal . US would get shivers as it ll fear for its business in SOKO , Taiwan , Japan etc. If it can attack India it can attack the rest of them. And for China this means a direct confrontation with the NATO . Something that it cannot afford right now.

In 2020s things may be different . US may decline beyond a point anyone predicted . EU may dissolve . Whole lot of things could happen . There could well be a world devoid of a clear super power . Since China and India would be the biggest dogs then possibility of a conflict would be very high. Chinese may do desperate to claim its throne and may do some aggressive things .

Because we would be stronger in 2020 and the US weaker than it is , we can test in 2020 without an fear. By than ISRO and DRDO would have hopefully mastered a lot of things(so no need to fear that they ll be in entities list) , our conventional forces would be at and all time high , and our economy would be 2-3 rd largest in the world. So we don't fear sanctions in 2020's .We fear the chinese . Right now it is the other way round. We fear sanctions more than Chinese.

I know that we are not in an ideal position now . We have made decades of blunder . There is no easy way out.

I wish someone opens a thread on "The impact of nuclear testing now /Impact of sanctions" right now . I wanted to start one but did not open one as I ll not be able to visit any longer from this Thursday. Besides fearing an early IB4TL .

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 06 Sep 2011 20:32

gakakkad ji: Imagine a Chinese leader reading your above post. What will be his reaction be?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Sep 2011 20:43

From my understanding:

There are two section in this maha dhaga discussion.
(1) A section beleive India has done a good test of H-bomb and there is no need for further testing. The detergent is there and we can move on as nothing can harm India with this minimum detergent. The important point is that we don't need to worry about naysayers though the perception is important in posturing. RC, most of the external affairs babus belong to this category. Even at BRF who thinks whatever GOI does is alway good falls into this category.

(2) There is a section who never wants to close any chance and who alway wants an incremental structure of improvement of the designs feels there should never be a stoppage of testing. BK, Chellaney and many jinoges of BRF belong to this group. Perceptionally if the 1998 H-Bomb is proven as Fizzle it is in their interest so that a new testing by a future jingo PM (NaMo

) will put their incremental design testing approch on the priority. From a threat perspective, they very well know that Chins are not going to take a chance using perceptions and they very well know that India's tests are not really fizzles.

It is neither India's H-test a fizzle nor BK is wrong. Period. Jai ho BK and Jai Ho Arun_S

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 06 Sep 2011 21:09

So no countries have mahabums for their deterrence? Seems the French did not get the note. Pity?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_SLBM

Warhead M51.1 = 6 to 10 TN 75 MIRV using the 100 kt of TNT (420 TJ), with penetration aids.
M51.2 (2015) = using the new Tête Nucléaire Océanique

More wiki posts are needed?

100 X 10 kT = 1 MT btw.

and 100 kT TN != 100 kT Fission/boosted fission.

It seems neither were US told that they dont use Mahabums any longer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UGM-133_Trident_II

#
# Warhead (in USA usage only): nuclear MIRV. Up to eight W88 (475 kt) warheads (Mark 5) or eight W76 (100 kt) warheads (Mark 4). The Trident II can carry 12 MIRV warheads but START I reduces this to 8 and SORT reduces this yet further to 4 or 5.

Should I go on and on about such meaningful posts?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Sep 2011 23:00

Muppalla wrote:From my understanding:

There are two section in this maha dhaga discussion.
(2) There is a section who never wants to close any chance and who alway wants an incremental structure of improvement of the designs feels there should never be a stoppage of testing. BK, Chellaney and many jinoges of BRF belong to this group. Perceptionally if the 1998 H-Bomb is proven as Fizzle it is in their interest so that a new testing by a future jingo PM (NaMo ) will put their incremental design testing approch on the priority. From a threat perspective, they very well know that Chins are not going to take a chance using perceptions and they very well know that India's tests are not really fizzles.It is neither India's H-test a fizzle nor BK is wrong. Period. Jai ho BK and Jai Ho Arun_S

May be Chini knows more than many of aam Jingoes and more than deterred. Their job is to convince Poaqs to stop the hoax now as bluff is now called. Chicken Neck in 65 suddenly transformed into dagger pointing at their heart. Its all in the mind.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 08 Sep 2011 12:59

RamaY wrote:Fair point Kansonji.

I agree that audience analysis is required. While you focus on 'international community' as the intended audience, I think the real audience should be the terror outfits and their organizational/ideological supporters like TSPA, PRC, USA and KSA. Even then, my main concern is about the politicization of Indian response. But I am willing to accept what the Air Marshal says for now.

The message is a broadcast readable by everyone. Hints and messages are very well understood by interested parties, in this case, TSPA etc

RamaY wrote:
When we go in, we should seek to convince Pakistan and the USA etc —unless you are sure you don’t care what they think. But that’s unlikely in India.
My read of that interview -

1. Gov/SFC already rehearsed such JDAM situation keeping everyone in loop.
2. The most probable response to a JDAM situation is conventional response.

That is his view and he clearly mentioned that(to moderate his stance). But he didn't rule out the N response. And Gov is aware of such response reflects the preparedness and willingness to respond in Kind. You will agree that, if this is purely a conventional response, then SFC do not come into the picture.

3. That India cares more about what TSP/USA thinks than what its response should be. And the general thinks that is due to the political situation in India, based on above quote.

So far throughout the existence of N weapon, there were only two bombs dropped. I mean, this not an day-to-day affair like firing on the Pak artillery position on the other side of LOC. N war has the potential to draw every power and can turn into WWIII. He just put it in words to just say, we will exercise caution before such attempts.

4. Given UPA2 witch-hunt maneuvers on related incidents, it is most likely that a JDAM situation will be rubbed as karmic-response for India.

Of course, as you said, it is upto the current Gov/ruling party to decide.

On a positive note, I think what the general is saying is that India is prepared to take a JDAM attack to fight the war another day; shows our willingness to survive.

I guess, he is saying we can hit back.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 08 Sep 2011 14:13

ramana wrote:Kanson, Where did I say there is a need for a mahabum. Please do take the time to read what I worte and you quoted. Addressing me as Sir doesn't take away from the fact that its your own perception and not a reply to my quote.

My reply is neither we need Mahabums or large number of delivery vehicles which you hinted. You check back what you have written.

Further you are also mistaken on the matter of sub kt tests. Arun_S never said that. Just because he isn't here doesn't mean one can claim he said something.
Anyway we all know each other's stands and as time goes along kaal will show who is right for both cant be!

I was also part of that discussion. As a participant I know what was said in that. If you say, on behalf of him, he doesn't feel that way, Good, it is a welcome change. Yes, people change with time, but it doesn't mean he didn't say that.

I'm consistent from very beginning that India do have TN weapon. This is my stand. I'm consistent in my stand even before US-Ind N deal to this day. Not changed my stance even one bit, when foreign experts wrote thesis on Indian N test, or your namesake (M. V. Ramana) danced against Indian establishment on N test, or when Arun_S torn apart this forum on his revelation or during Santhanam's last minute cameo. May I know what is your stand? So we can check with time as you say.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Sep 2011 15:00

Kanson,a "Credible" N-deterrent can only be achieved when we have the SSBNs with our second strike capability at sea! Right now,if our land based missile locations and air bases where our N-warheads are stored are known to the enemy,they can be-most of them, taken out or rendered inoperational by a sudden first strike.We do not have an arrangement with China as we do woith Pak,where we have exchanged sites and locations of N-facilities which are supposed to be taboo and un-attackable.A massed missile attack from China which has hundreds of missiles ranged against us can decapitate the bulk of our land and air component of the deterrent.

As Ramanna said the key Q is what should be the size and composition of the Indian strategic deterrent.There are some clues.We plan to have between 5-6 SSBNs,which will carry at least 8 missiles (Western SSBNs have upto 16 missiles,Russians even upto 20 and PLAN subs with 12) with at least 3 MIRVs. The present Arihant (ATV-1) N-sub ,now serving as a "tech-demo" sub,in order to validate the capabilities and UW firing of missiles,could serve as an SSGN later on once the full-sized SSBNs are commissioned.In fact ATV-1 with 12 750KM range missiles using 4 silos,would perform the task of an SSGN equally well.Having just one basic design of N-sub for the IN of two different sizes (just as there are several versions of Amur and other subs) would be a cost-effective solution,as we do not have the luxury of designing and building sevral different types of N-subs as the Soviets and US did. 8X3X5 gives us 40 missiles with 120 warheads aboard 5 SSBNs.If this component makes up 1/3rd of our total number of warheads ,one could calculate that with a minimum of 120 missiles we could have 360 warheads .The questiuon is that with pak's number now according to US intel estimates to be about 100-120,and still growing rapidly,Pak alone would be able to achieve parity or even superiority,thus giving the PRC an overwhelming superiority in both numbers and size of warheads.Since the cost of an SSBN is exceptionally high,then the most cost-effective way in which we can augment our arsenal is to increase significantly the number of land-based mobile missiles and the number of aircraft .

Either way our task is cut out,also remembering that the ultimate goal is to develop a sub launched ICBM,which if there are no changes to the silo size aboard our SSBNs,will reduce the number of warheads that they can carry to just one per missile.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 08 Sep 2011 17:39

"It would take close to 1200 1 MT warheads to do such a thing . The consequences of doing such a thing would be immense for the whole world "

This is what I've been thinking all along- and this is the reason the world will do everything it can to prevent an India-Pakistan nuclear conflagration, particularly when there is a real danger of China being struck as a retaliatory measure, by India. The environmental consequences for the world- threat of nuclear winter- are immense.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 08 Sep 2011 18:02

Also, Indians themselves, including ethnic Indians( my group

) have to be a little more quick witted and succinct together. This often mentioned danger of a nuclear escalation is projected, usually with India in mind.

Indians should quickly retort that it won't be India's fault if ever the worst case scenario comes to pass. The fault will lie with Pakistan, with China, and with the Western powers, particularly the US and UK, who propped up a fanatic, irrational country to begin with. There's a tendency to assign more responsibility to India, for the imagined disaster. Hence, India should make concessions on Kashmir in order to ensure peace and stability in the subcontinent. Indians should again quickly answer by stating that India was not founded on the basis of religious hatred, religious separatism and religious fanaticism, so there's no question of India making concessions. Tell the concerned individuals that it is the responsibility of those countries that propped up, if not actually created, this monster, to ensure that it never gets out of hand.

Criminal culpability for any loss of Indian life lies squarely with those parties.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 08 Sep 2011 20:42

Philip wrote:Kanson,a "Credible" N-deterrent can only be achieved when we have the SSBNs with our second strike capability at sea!

Glad to hear your thoughts. Yes, Credible N deterrent needs sea leg.

Right now,if our land based missile locations and air bases where our N-warheads are stored are known to the enemy,they can be-most of them, taken out or rendered inoperational by a sudden first strike.We do not have an arrangement with China as we do woith Pak,where we have exchanged sites and locations of N-facilities which are supposed to be taboo and un-attackable.A massed missile attack from China which has hundreds of missiles ranged against us can decapitate the bulk of our land and air component of the deterrent.

What is shared in the name of CBMs are power and research reactors and sites of civilian value. We are not sharing N weapon locations and no one share such things! Even if we have only land based missile Chinese can't take them out with their sudden first strike. Only countries in my view which have capabilities to do so are US and to an extent Russia. This needs round the clock surveillance with cumulative and real time intelligence. Chinese don't have such round the clock coverage as of now. We don't have to worry about that now. So upto immediate future and beyond, in India's case land based missiles do provide enough credible deterrent against both China and Pak.

As Ramanna said the key Q is what should be the size and composition of the Indian strategic deterrent.There are some clues.We plan to have between 5-6 SSBNs,which will carry at least 8 missiles (Western SSBNs have upto 16 missiles,Russians even upto 20 and PLAN subs with 12) with at least 3 MIRVs. The present Arihant (ATV-1) N-sub ,now serving as a "tech-demo" sub,in order to validate the capabilities and UW firing of missiles,could serve as an SSGN later on once the full-sized SSBNs are commissioned.In fact ATV-1 with 12 750KM range missiles using 4 silos,would perform the task of an SSGN equally well.Having just one basic design of N-sub for the IN of two different sizes (just as there are several versions of Amur and other subs) would be a cost-effective solution,as we do not have the luxury of designing and building sevral different types of N-subs as the Soviets and US did. 8X3X5 gives us 40 missiles with 120 warheads aboard 5 SSBNs.If this component makes up 1/3rd of our total number of warheads ,one could calculate that with a minimum of 120 missiles we could have 360 warheads .The questiuon is that with pak's number now according to US intel estimates to be about 100-120,and still growing rapidly,Pak alone would be able to achieve parity or even superiority,thus giving the PRC an overwhelming superiority in both numbers and size of warheads.Since the cost of an SSBN is exceptionally high,then the most cost-effective way in which we can augment our arsenal is to increase significantly the number of land-based mobile missiles and the number of aircraft .

Again you are mistaking Sea based misiles/warhead are the only Indian Strategic deterrent. As I said earlier it is one of such component. Secondly, Pak is smaller country compared to India. For argument sake, to destroy India of huge land mass, completely it needs that much times more number of warheads than to destroy Pak land mass completely - hope you agree with this. So against Pak we are enjoying enough superiority despite they increase their warhead from 100 to 120. Thirdly, we are developing ABM that further bring down the equation. Let me tell you Chinese are cowards, they won't attack us unless they see conclusive victory. Barking dogs don't bite.

Either way our task is cut out,also remembering that the ultimate goal is to develop a sub launched ICBM,which if there are no changes to the silo size aboard our SSBNs,will reduce the number of warheads that they can carry to just one per missile.

We still don't know what will be the ultimate size of the SSBN that carries sub launched ICBM. Without any information we can't draw any conclusion.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Sep 2011 00:24

X-Posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

Published on Sep 06, 2011
By Rory Medcalf
Does India need nuclear asymmetry?: Lowy Institute for International Policy (Sydney)

As for India's wider sense of insecurity about Chinese military power, I would still point to this speech, which contains one of the wisest arguments made by an Indian military thinker. It is pointless for New Delhi to engage in a direct military competition with China based on the narrow calculus of defence spending, or on sheer numbers of modern planes, ships and conventional weapons systems.

India's economy and defence budget is smaller, its other security challenges are many and of a different kind (terrorism, insurgency, separatism), and its human development needs should remain a major priority for New Delhi's stretched resources.

Instead, when it comes to defence, India needs to think asymmetrically. And, unpleasant as it sounds, the shortest cut to a stable security relationship between India and China may be a genuinely effective Indian nuclear deterrent — with submarine-launched second strike capabilities — unlike the old-fashioned and largely air-dropped arsenal India is currently said to possess.

Unless, of course, the limited range of Indian missiles means that India has to survey contested waters close to China's eastern periphery so that its nuclear-armed boats can one day patrol there. In which case, expect to see much more strife at sea between Asia's rising giants.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Sep 2011 08:30

What I like about nuclear weapons discussions is that the people who really deal with the materials that go into a nuclear bomb are the least likely to say anything. That makes me - a guy whose nearest connection with physics is a fizzing can of beer near me the real expert who can comment "authoritatively" on a range of issues from weapons design, to strategy, to deterrence. And this is in addition to my expertise in aerodynamics gleaned from air buzzing past my ears on the golf course.

I love it.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Sep 2011 08:49

^^^ agreed with you.. hakim sahib. Bharat Karnad with an MA in political science , Bhrama chellaney other arts grad etc declared the bombs to be a fizzle , a dud etc ....

Even if one has a bachelor in engineering or a BS/MS in physics one can find it hard to understand things. The physics teacher who had once upon a time coached me for pmt /iit/olympiads could not make much headway either . (making me conclude that he transferred whatever he had to me back then

)

Whats happened on the nuke issue is that "strategy guru's" and DDM saw our conversation on various nuclear dhaga's and wrote an article.. What we got is a twisted version of our own conversation that we had. Almost everything you mentioned about the BK speech was discussed here at some point in time . We got our own theories sold back to us without realising that this is where is all started.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Sep 2011 08:55

Cross post

Rudradev wrote:BTW, one thing I'm reading a lot of in the Karnad thread, is that never mind if P-2 failed to establish it... if need be we can assemble and test a 200kT boosted fission device in under a month.

Yes. And when the riot starts and stones are breaking my windows, I can go into the kitchen, melt down a tubelight holder, attach a pipe fitting, insert one .303 slug that I found somewhere many years ago, and I will have an A-class ghoda ready to go. No worries, have curry. Hack-thoo.

There would be no need to actually test such a device. It would have to be used "for what it is worth". The days of overt live nuclear testing are over. If the people who build it are able to say that it has a 99 % probability of yielding 25 kt, 90% probability of yielding at least 50kt and only a 60% probability of yielding 200 kt it would still have to be used if it came to that.

In any case if it was going to be used against a Chinese city it would not be military planners planning specific goals. It would be a bunch of desperate people throwing whatever they have for whatever effect it can give them.

In response to my question Bharat Karnad pointed out what I have read from other sources as well. Since testing of nuclear weapons for reliability is no longer possible what the US does is to test individual components of a certain percentage of weapons from the stockpile for evidence of degeneration/need for renewal. This may even require drilling into the warheads for samples.

I have a paper that says that the US tests approximately one in eleven (or is it 11%?) of its warheads (IIRC) based on a calculation that suggests that statistically - this percentage would be enough to "prove" reliability of an old warhead that has been sitting around for decades. This is not a 100% proof and certainly not as reliable as just picking up a random nuclear warhead and actually exploding it - but under the current climate in the world even the USA can't do that. Maybe N. Korea can.

However there seem to be many methods of "almost getting there" - the "coitus interruptus" method of testing nukes. Karnad mentioned the fact that both the US and Russia are looking at triggering fusion with lasers, and he also mentined magnetic fields triggering fusion - but I have never heard of that.