kasthuri wrote:Transcript: Interview With Adm. Mike Mullen
This is an extremely interesting interview. Clearly India is in the background when it comes to the US making "progress" in Pakistan. Pakistan WILL NOT wind up assets that they see as needed against India and is angry with the US for never helping them directly against India. And there's not a lot the US can do about it.
But a sudden thought struck me. As long as India is strong enough to pulverise the Paki army, Pakhanis will never "feel safe". And as long as they claim they never "feel safe" they will continue to maintain proxies like the LeT which Mullen says is "spreading to the west".
In fact there is a circular argument concerning India over here. India is required to appear "less threatening" to Pakistan. But Pakistanis say that its not Indian intentions that count, it's Indian capability. Let me point out a curious factoid. Even if "India" decides two minutes after I post this message that we will wind down the Indian armed forces an convert our tanks into tractors an soldiers into farmers - it will be a decade - i.e 2021 before the Indian armed forces lose the capability to be a threat to Pakistan.
That means that no matter what the US wants India to do, and no matter how much a traitorous GoI might savor licking American ass (as is often alleged here) and unilaterally decide to roll over, it is physically not possible for India to reduce its capability enough to reduce Pakistani fears for at least 10 years from now. In other words there can be no major progress in getting India out of the way of Pakistan's US sponsored "rise" in the next 2 US Presidential terms (at the very least). So Pakistan is NOT going to wind up the LeT or Hackany and other proxies for the nest 2 US Presidential terms. So what can the US do?
1. The US can arm Pakistan further. More F-16s. Give F-22s and F-35s this time. Submarines etc. But will this make them wind up Hackany and LeT. Unlikely because India still exists.
2. The US can get directly involved in a war to defeat India. That is, the US can request Pakistan for bases in Pakistan to build up force levels in Pakistan that are strong enough to defeat India in a land war in exchange for Pakistan agreeing to wind up Lashkar e Poobah and Hackany. I mention this only for fun, because the force levels that the US needs in Pakistan for that is huge and it means "boots on the ground" in Pakistan and the Poobah and Hackany groups can be cleared up right there in Pakistan, or else those groups will have to tolerate US troops on the ground to fight a war with Kafi India. I am hoping that someone on BRF will take the bait and try and argue about how this is possible. I look forward to a good "discussion" on this matter. Truth and accuracy are useless things for good forum arguments.
The long and short of it is that the US cannot make the Pakistani army take down its proxies for at least a decade - and if you ask me, India is not going to wind down her armed forced two minutes after this post from shiv - so Pakistan will never take down its proxies.
3. So we have option 3 for the US: Cop out and get out. Give it up as a bad job and downhill ski, accepting defeat, but calling it victory.
4. Chankian option: There are some Chankian options for the US. I won't bother talking about that. The US has been too dumb all these years and still sounds as dumb as ever - so these options are like "India winding down its armed forces two minutes after I click submit for this post"