Re: US strike options on TSP

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Karan M wrote:Trump IMHO is very unlikely to win until and unless a bunch of horrible events occur so that amreekans become security minded. We are going to get Hillary as the next POTUS.
Trump has the unique ability as a Republican candidate to reach out far to the left, of even Hillary Clinton. The question then becomes can he retain his conservative voters.

Keeping the conservative voters tied to him, he needs a VP pick whom the conservatives have faith in. That can be a bit tricky. So he needs a conservative. What is clear is that Trump really needs a woman as a VP if he wants to take on Hillary. So it has to be a conservative and a woman. Thirdly he may need to bring in some "minority" face, if he wants to stop Hillary from painting him as a racist. So it has to be a conservative non-white woman.

1) Nikki Haley could be one such choice, but she was averse to Trump earlier. Also it is debatable whether having an Indian-American on the ticket really helps him with the big minorities, or whether a convert to Christianity but born Sikh really pulls in the votes.

2) Another choice is Condoleezza Rice, who would be a perfect choice, except that she is close to the Bushs and to associated with Iraq War, etc. a war Trump has strongly criticized.

3) Another candidate they are looking at is Mary Fallin, the Governor of Oklahoma, who happens to be white but it is questionable how feisty she would be.

4) Another possibility is Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico, but it is an open question, whether she as a Hispanic-American would want to associate herself with Trump, and whether she can get the Latino vote for Trump in spite of the "Build the Wall" rhetoric.

Condoleezza Rice would in fact be the perfect foil for Donald Trump. A Trump-Rice team is unbeatable.

Even if Trump picks anybody else, he is still going to be an extremely nimble boxer in the ring, and can beat Hillary bad.
Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5352
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Cain Marko »

^-I think Palin is in contention for veep with the donald...satisfies alkyl your conditions too saar except the non white bit
Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20773
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Karan M »

Rajesh Saar nice post. Nikki would be an inspired choice. Palin IMHO would be a disaster. Martinez and Rice would be great too.
Falijee
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10948
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Falijee »

Hillary Clinton’s Muslim Brotherhood Problem
On March 24th, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton put in an appearance in Los Angeles that perfectly captured one of the most problematic facets of her checkered public service. Seated next to a prominent Islamic supremacist with longstanding ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, she nodded like a bobbing-head doll as he dissembled about Islam, fraudulently professed a commitment to “partnership” with law enforcement to prevent radicalization, and criticized those who know better.
This serious betrayal of U.S. national interests has surely been encouraged by Clinton’s association with and reliance upon Huma Abedin, a woman with her own, well-documented personal and family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Huma’s involvement as a chief lieutenant to Mrs. Clinton going back to Hillary’s days as First Lady has undoubtedly contributed to the latter’s affinity for the organization.
This Paki origin advisor to Billary is always in the 'background', never paraded openly !
The following are illustrative examples of how that affinity translated into action during Mrs. Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State – a period in which she and President Obama sought serially to embrace, legitimate and empower the Muslim Brotherhood:
n 2010, Clinton personally overturned standing policy to approve the admission into the United States of one of the Muslim Brotherhood’s top operatives, Tariq Ramadan.
Hillary Clinton also personally approved the policy of formally engaging with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Clinton played a leading role in developing and executing Obama administration initiatives aimed at bringing the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria.
Hillary Clinton was personally involved in advancing the Muslim Brotherhood/Organization of Islamic Cooperation agenda aimed at prohibiting “defamation of Islam/religion.”
Hillary Clinton’s State Department was involved in shutting down an investigation into the personnel and activities of Tablighi Jamaat – the Deobandi “missionary” group out of Pakistan, two of whose followers were responsible for the jihadist attack in San Bernardino in December 2015. The chief investigator, Philip Haney,believes that, had that inquiry not been terminated and all of its data purged, those murders may well have been prevented.
In the course of the roundtable with Mrs. Clinton and LA’s mayor, al-Marayati demonstrated his true, Islamic supremacist colors by engaging in classic taqiyya – the Islamists’ well-honed practice of dissembling for the faith. For example, he selectively quoted from the Quran to differentiate between the teachings of Islam and the practices of the Islamic State. He also promoted such favorite Brotherhood themes as “the mosques are not the centers of radicalization” and that “violent extremism” is the threat, not Islam’s jihadism.
For her part, Hillary Clinton used the roundtable to propound the myth that Muslims like al-Marayati are not given enough “platforms” to disavow jihadism. The real problem, though, is that organizations like MPAC and their spokesmen are given plenty of outlets – by the government and the U.S. media – but choose not to use them for the purpose of disassociating their community from those who faithfully adhere to sharia and seek to impose it on the rest of us.
Of course, given their true purpose – Islamic supremacism – the al-Marayatis and MPACs cannot authentically do that. After all, like Islamists the world over, they actually share that agenda and are working, albeit through stealthy, “civilization jihadist” means, to secure its triumph here. No Commander-in-Chief, actual or prospective, should be “partnering” with those advancing such a purpose.
She is of course depending on Huma A to deliver the Muslim vote for her !
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10390
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Yagnasri »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW8RqLN3Qao

Trump sounds much more capable in this speech. Not an idiot as the media projects.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Cain Marko wrote:^-I think Palin is in contention for veep with the donald...satisfies alkyl your conditions too saar except the non white bit
Yes Palin too is also possible. However she is already a failed experiment as a Veep! And she hardly has any pull. Even after Palin had endorsed Trump, Trump still lost Alaska to Cruz, and Palin was a former Governor of Alaska.

Putting Palin on the ticket would also only compound the "stupidity perception" of the ticket. In fact she is on the other end of the intellectualism spectrum as Condoleezza Rice.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by IndraD »

RajeshA nice post!
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Singha »

rice may not have been part of the core team that designed the OIF though probably close to GW2 himself. dont think the core team of rumsfeld , cheney and crew listened to anything sane from her...they wanted a war and got it. they heavily criticized her after leaving office.

she was NSA during the OIF era where the bulls ran amuck in the streets.

getting her in may dent hillarys vote banks among upper middle class, youths, women, hispanics and blacks while trump rallies the poor whites and religious conservatives.
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10390
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Yagnasri »

Rice may be a great choice. She is quite capable and brings a lot to the table. But DT is anything normal. We may see a surprising choice. Black people will be like Muslim vote bank in India. HC will get most of their votes and do nothing for them. We can be clear of that.

I love to see how HC and DT will fight it out till November.
Gus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8220
Joined: 07 May 2005 02:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Gus »

everybody from bush era are tainted goods. trump won't touch them as he has publicly said iraq war was mistake. and his entire thing is he's an outsider.

no palin as well. he already has the palin votes...why bother having her with her baggage.

VP picks are supposed to get u votes u cannot get otherwise, without putting off votes you already have and without negating ur main planks. rice and palin don't fit.
johneeG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3473
Joined: 01 Jun 2009 12:47

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by johneeG »

Gus wrote:everybody from bush era are tainted goods. trump won't touch them as he has publicly said iraq war was mistake. and his entire thing is he's an outsider.

no palin as well. he already has the palin votes...why bother having her with her baggage.

VP picks are supposed to get u votes u cannot get otherwise, without putting off votes you already have and without negating ur main planks. rice and palin don't fit.
I had same thoughts. :)

Initially, Chris Christie, Carson,...etc might have supported Trump in hope of being VP. If Trump didn't have any constraints, then they might have been the choice. But, Trump is at odds with the establishment and he might be forced to make up with the establishment at somepoint. Or Cruz and Trump can make up because both of them are opposed by the establishment. So, broadly, Trump has to make up with Cruz and other non-establishment guys or he has to make up with the establishment. I think the choice of VP may represent that aspect.
devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by devesh »

Trump's VP pick will be just as unpredictable as he's so far been.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Gus wrote:everybody from bush era are tainted goods. trump won't touch them as he has publicly said iraq war was mistake. and his entire thing is he's an outsider.

no palin as well. he already has the palin votes...why bother having her with her baggage.

VP picks are supposed to get u votes u cannot get otherwise, without putting off votes you already have and without negating ur main planks. rice and palin don't fit.
I think there will be some people in the Trump Administration from the Bush era, simply because they are ones with executive and legislative experience.

Actually many Veep picks did not even deliver their home states to the ticket, people like Al Gore, John Edwards, etc. But the general intention is of course to strengthen the ticket.

I have a feeling Trump is going to make a strong push for the African-American vote. Despite the Democratic hold over it right now, there is an opening. If he pulls that off, Hillary is finished.It is going to be a Modi rehash of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Desh First, etc.

Republicans thought they would try to cash in on Latino vote. Trump has torn up that book and basically declared war on them. He wants to build on the African-American votebank. One of the main planks of Trump is protectionism. So he would have to fight it out with Mexico and hence conflict with the Hispanics cannot be avoided. With African-Americans there is no such issue. African-Americans would immensely profit from protectionism and immigration rollback.

Trump already has people working on the African-Americans in the field.

My prediction is that his VP choice would be Condoleezza Rice, and Trump would do what it takes to get her on the ticket. Condi did reject Mitt Romney''s offer to be his VP pick.
ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2564
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by ShyamSP »

RajeshA wrote:
Gus wrote:everybody from bush era are tainted goods. trump won't touch them as he has publicly said iraq war was mistake. and his entire thing is he's an outsider.

no palin as well. he already has the palin votes...why bother having her with her baggage.

VP picks are supposed to get u votes u cannot get otherwise, without putting off votes you already have and without negating ur main planks. rice and palin don't fit.
I think there will be some people in the Trump Administration from the Bush era, simply because they are ones with executive and legislative experience.

Actually many Veep picks did not even deliver their home states to the ticket, people like Al Gore, John Edwards, etc. But the general intention is of course to strengthen the ticket.

I have a feeling Trump is going to make a strong push for the African-American vote. Despite the Democratic hold over it right now, there is an opening. If he pulls that off, Hillary is finished.It is going to be a Modi rehash of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Desh First, etc.

Republicans thought they would try to cash in on Latino vote. Trump has torn up that book and basically declared war on them. He wants to build on the African-American votebank. One of the main planks of Trump is protectionism. So he would have to fight it out with Mexico and hence conflict with the Hispanics cannot be avoided. With African-Americans there is no such issue. African-Americans would immensely profit from protectionism and immigration rollback.

Trump already has people working on the African-Americans in the field.

My prediction is that his VP choice would be Condoleezza Rice, and Trump would do what it takes to get her on the ticket. Condi did reject Mitt Romney''s offer to be his VP pick.
Good Analysis. Losing to Hispanics in minority demographics game is big thing in Black community. Ben Carson may be trying to bid as VP choice representing black vote bank. Right formula can make them not putting all eggs in the "black" woman Clinton basket.
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10390
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Yagnasri »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sRpsMlmxlc

Video on HC. All kinds of rumours about her.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

At the moment Trump has about a 1000/1237 delegates. On Tuesday, May 3, is the primary in Indiana, where Trump is expected to do well. According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll, Trump (49%) has a 15% lead over challenger Ted Cruz (34%) and John Kasich (13%).

It is the last stand of the #NeverTrump campaign among the Republicans.

After May 4, except for the hard-core establishment Republicans, all others would start quickly falling in line.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by UlanBatori »

RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Apr 30, 2016
By Mark Charles
Off the Reservation
WHEN NATIVES ARE “ON THE RESERVATION,” IT IS IMPLIED THAT WE ARE CONTAINED, ISOLATED, AND CONTROLLED. WHEN WE GO “OFF THE RESERVATION,” CHAOS ENSUES. WE HAVE GONE ROGUE, ACT UNPREDICTABLY, AND ARE CAUSING TROUBLE.
In its literal and original sense, as you would expect, the term was used in the 19th century to describe the activities of Native Americans:
  • “The acting commissioner of Indian affairs to-day received a telegram from Agent Roorke of the Klamath (Oregon) agency, dated July 6, in which he says: ‘No Indians are off the reservation without authority. All my Indians are loyal and peaceable, and doing well.” (Baltimore Sun, July 11, 1878)
  • “Secretary Hoke Smith…has requested of the Secretary of War the aid of the United States troops to arrest a band of Navajo Indians living off the reservation near American Valley, New Mexico, who have been killing cattle, etc.” (Washington Post, May 23, 1894)
  • “Apaches off the reservation…killing deer and gathering wild fruits.” (New York Times, Sept. 7, 1897)
  • Many of the news articles that used the term in a literal sense in the past were also expressing undisguised contempt and hatred, or, at best, condescension, for Native Americans — “shiftless, untameable…a rampant and intractable enemy to civilization” (New York Times, Oct. 27, 1886).
(Kee Maleskey – NPR June 29, 2014)

But I would not expect Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to understand this.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

On May 4th, what's going to happen is that the Republican Establishment is going to wake up to the fact that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee.

It also means, that the #NeverTrump campaign is going to crumble, and Ted Cruz who was the main tool of the Republican establishment to stop Trump from becoming nominee is going have all the ire directed at him. Never Trump campaign has sucked up so many dollars, that most of the financiers are furious both with the leaders of Never Trump campaign as well as with Ted Cruz who gave them the false hope that he could stop Trump.

Basically Ted Cruz has burnt his bridges on both sides - establishment and Trump.

It is possible though that Trump may still find use of Ted.
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10390
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Yagnasri »

Just like HC made up with Obomber, TC may make up with DT. In politics anything is possible. But do DT really need TC? I do not think so. EJ votes will be solid against HC and they will all hate HC. So there is no way they do not vote DT or sit at home.

C.Rice may be a good choice. But she brings back memories of Bush which is not good for any GOP candidate.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Yagnasri wrote:Just like HC made up with Obomber, TC may make up with DT. In politics anything is possible. But do DT really need TC? I do not think so. EJ votes will be solid against HC and they will all hate HC. So there is no way they do not vote DT or sit at home.
Trump has already said that "he is great friends with all of them after he has beaten them". This is going to be a fairly easy thing to heal. Around mid-June they will all be making up and kissing each other.

However Cruz is not going to be the VP choice. Trump does not need to give him that, and Trump himself has been able to get a sizable number of conservative votes himself, so he is not entirely dependent on Cruz for that.
Yagnasri wrote:C.Rice may be a good choice. But she brings back memories of Bush which is not good for any GOP candidate.
Condi Rice was herself a prominent supporter for water-boarding AFAIK, so that is something she shares with Trump.

There were others like Cheney and Rumsfeld and may be even Colin Powel, who got most of the brunt of the criticism. Trump mostly has a very low opinion of the Bushs, but he may want to signal some symbolic continuity with the last Republican administration by including one of the prominent faces, just so as to give the impression to the 20% Republicans who say "Never Trump", that they should then say "Perhaps Trump". It is going to be a hard fight, and Trump would not want any Republicans to sit at home on polling day. Condi Rice as VP would go a long way in assuaging their resistance without conceding too much to the Bush faction other than a prominent face with not that much influence in the Bush faction of the party.

Condi Rice is the kind of person, one would like to have on one's side, as she can make a donkey look Presidential and serious, perhaps as she did in her last term.
KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9926
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by KJo »

Don't think Trump will want any continuity with Bush 2 and his cronies like Al-Quolin Powullah and Cheney. Powullah is tainted for his lies before the Iraq war and DT rails against this all the time. He is positioning himself as someone who is different from both Dems and Repubs. I don't think the US public is ready for a Black woman as VP though Rice is smart, but she is connected to Bush too.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Just for Laughs:

The main reason, why Ted Cruz is simply not made for a higher purpose:

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by ramana »

Trump has increased his lead to 17% in Indiana according to surveys.

Voting is tomorrow.

If survey is right the Republican race is over.

OTH, Clinton and Sanders are in statistical tie.

This could lead to contested convention for Democrats.
Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20773
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Karan M »

Hilary and sanders will both be bad for India. One already has a bad track record. Another is a social justice type who will pander to the worst atrocity creating type liberals who are around in droves. Trump is india's best bet..but fewer chances IMO he will win.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Here are a couple of maps useful in understanding the US Electoral Probabilities

Image

Image


Sorry for the large pics!
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

The point of the article is that for Democrats to win, they have to simply win the the states they have won in the last 6 elections plus Florida, and they have a majority. Republicans on the other hand have a much more difficult task. They have consistently won only states in the last 6 elections which add up to 102.

For Republicans everything has to go right, and only then they have a chance.

That is a big hurdle confronting Trump, even if he gets the Republican nomination.

I am expecting a serious pivot by Trump towards the African-American voters.
Falijee
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10948
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Falijee »

Huma Abedin Does Not Follow Anthony Weiner on Twitter
Abedin joined Twitter late last summer
Hillary Clinton’s right-hand woman Huma Abedin and her husband Anthony Weiner do not follow each other on Twitter, a Washington Free Beacon analysis has found.
Abedin joined Twitter late last summer and has followed 140 accounts, mainly Clinton campaign staffers and political commentators, but also celebrities such as Aziz Ansari, Conan O’Brien, and Jimmy Fallon. She even follows Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).
She doesn’t follow Weiner, who has been on Twitter for much longer than his wife and famously posted a picture of his own penis for all his followers in 2011. He meant to send the picture in a private message to a woman that followed him.
Weiner mainly uses the platform to discuss the New York Islanders and New York Mets, but he also frequently delves into political issues. He also sometimes pokes fun at the way it was revealed that he was cheating on Abedin.
This is the Tweet currently pinned to the top of his account:
Abedin, who has the more common Twitter setting that does not allow direct messages, did not return an email inquiry.
Abedin publicly announced that she had forgiven Weiner for his social media mishap.
The strength of a different Abedin relationship has been in the spotlight in recent weeks—between Abedin and her boss.
It was revealed in a Newsweek profile of Abedin last week that she “nearly burst into tears” when she learned that Clinton had to carry her own bag up a flight of stairs.
Abedin also recently recounted how “beautiful” and “little” she thought Clinton was the first time she laid eyes on her.
Abedin has said that she thinks that if Clinton “quit tomorrow, she will go down as one of the greatest American women in the history of the world.” People close to both have said that they think Abedin “would die for Hillary.”
If there is any truth in the rumours regarding the relationship between Huma and Hillary, then this union between the closet Islamist (female) and the Jewish New Yorker (male) is probably a marriage of convenience !
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by UlanBatori »

Cruz wimps out; POTUS2B Trump is the elephant nominee.
shravanp
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2551
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by shravanp »

Hope Trump cruises over billary. First thing he should do is increase h1b quote from measly 65k to 130k
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Singha »

Hispanics are much more powerful and growing vote bank than blacks

black % of pop is declining, family structure broken, economic & edu mobility weak, no africa nearby to replenish numbers and beef up gene pool

for latinos, all the above factors are +ve

republicans need to go after the hispanic vote bank somehow to stand a chance in future...otherwise with 50% hispanic pop in 2050, it will be like BJP trying to eke out a win bangladesh :eek:
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Viv S »

RajeshA wrote:Trump has the unique ability as a Republican candidate to reach out far to the left, of even Hillary Clinton. The question then becomes can he retain his conservative voters.
He also has the ability to inspire visceral hatred within sections of his conservative 'base' (even before he 'pivots').

The importance thing about this election is that isn't going to be about the left-right/liberal-conservative divide that traditionally determines results. Trump will appeal to a section of boat-rockers on the left (from Bernie Sander's base) but he will also lose the Republican moderates in the centre.

Bottom-line, this one's going to be decided by demographics. By and large Hillary is a flat candidate that doesn't really inspire anybody. Fortunately for her, a comfortable 65% of the US electorate consists of voter groups that will be inspired by Trump.. to come out and vote against him.

Women: 53%
Hispanics (men): 6%
Black (men): 6%

The female vote in particular is going to take a huge toll.


Donald Trump has a big problem: Women don’t just dislike him — they actually detest him

Donald Trump Is Worse Off Than Mitt Romney With Women

NBC/WSJ poll - 47 percent of Republican female primary voters said they could not imagine themselves voting for Trump



The hope for Trump is that he'll be able to fix those problems when he begins his 'pivot' to centre. Unfortunately for him, the free publicity he's getting from the media lasts only as long as he's an exciting (read: controversial) candidate. The moment he tries to rehabilitate his image to a more 'presidential' (read: boring) one, that ends and he's going to have to start paying out of pocket to create the new image.

At some point, he's going to need the party machinery. But while the 'elites' may grit their teeth and offer verbal support to him when he secures the nomination, the money machine isn't going to start rolling for a candidate who's been contemplating firing the RNC chair after winning the nomination (nevermind the fact that the nominee has no authority over the RNC). Hell.. Hillary probably has more connections within the Republican establishment than Trump.

In contrast, Clinton has the DNC solidly rallying behind her, a far better ground game and financial backing that's in a different league. Unlike the (establishment-choice) Jeb Bush, she's a real candidate with real grassroots support. So far she's raised five times the amount of money Trump has - $250 mil to $50 mil and that gap will only grow after she convincingly secures the nomination (sans any controversy/drama). Also, unlike Rubio, Kasich & Cruz, Clinton will come out of the convention with firm backing from Sanders; we may even see a Clinton-Sanders ticket.

Trump has six months of constant attack ads in store for him and unlike his predecessors, who only committed the occasional gaffe, Trump puts his foot in it twice a week. He's an endless source of material for those tasked with making the ads.
Last edited by Viv S on 04 May 2016 06:54, edited 1 time in total.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by UlanBatori »

Hate is such a powerful emotion, Johny! Don't u feel it?
Rita Hayworth as "Gilda" :eek: :eek:

All these Republican wimmens are just madly in lust with the same man that Trump is in love with: Donald. With Trump in the Oval Office, the Secret Service will just have to put a red light over the door and call it a Red Light District.

Trump can be targeted with attacks all day and all night for 6 months, it will just bounce off at the attackers. OTOH, when HE attacks, it always makes the news, and now he can concentrate on the one fat target.

Maybe Hillary will agree to be his Natl Sec. Advisor so she can be in the Oval Office all the time. Almost like being an Intern again :rotfl:
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Cruz throws in the towel. Trump is Republican nominee.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Today's victory in Indiana by Trump, gives a "fascinating" peak into his psyche.

It was already known that Trump would win Indiana, and that would mean Cruz loses a path to a brokered convention in Cleveland. So a loss in Indiana was indeed going to be a big blow to Cruz and the mood in Cruz camp would be rock-bottom.

On the same day, along comes Trump and focuses on a dubious media report which claims that Cruz's father "helped" Oswald, who killed JFK. That is so crazy, it is almost like talking about UFOs. But Trump did it. Trump said a man like Cruz's father should not be entertained in the churches, where he used to go and drum up support for Ted Cruz. That was hitting a guy on the head who is already on the floor, squirming in pain. But Trump did it.

So at the very moment when Ted Cruz was giving a serious thought about continuing with his campaign, he was given a further blow. Of course it led to Ted Cruz's outburst to which Trump could respond that Ted Cruz is unhinged and unpresidential, contradicting Ted Cruz's claim that he is the calm man unlike Trump. That was the third blow.

And there you have a knockout punch. Ted Cruz leaves the ring all bleeding.

That is how Trump acts. Something to remember when he is President!
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Viv S ji,

check this video by Van Jones
Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 926
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Y. Kanan »

Trump would be the best US president for India since JFK.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by RajeshA »

Good statistical analysis of American society and politics

Published on May 4, 2016
The Great Trump Reshuffle: New York Times
By Thomas B. Edsall
There are two groups among whom Trump will gain and Clinton will lose: voters making less than $30,000 and voters with high school degrees. Both less affluent groups are expected to increase their level of support for the Republican nominee over their 2012 margins, by 13 and by 17 points.

For the Democratic presidential coalition in 2016, the net effect of this shift will be to further reverse the working class tilt of the party, which has been trending upscale since 1992. The Republican coalition of 2016, in fact, will look increasingly like the Democratic Party of the 1930s.

A Trump versus Clinton contest will deepen the partisan divisions that for the past five decades have set those who support the social and cultural revolutions of the past five decades on race, immigration, women’s rights, gender equality and gay rights — as well as the broader right to sexual privacy — against those who remain in opposition.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by UlanBatori »

So much for left-wing statistics.
All Wall St will vote Trump. Most defence/Reconstruction/Waste Management will vote Trump.

This "47% of she-elephants detest Trump" remains to be debunked. So he won, what? 55% of the elephant vote in Indiana? I doubt if that was all he-elephants, surely a lot of those, being in Indiana, would have voted for Cruz who is known as far more of a jerk and jackass (remember, Indiana elected Quayle, Dan Burton...), and for Kasich from neigbhoring Ohio, a total fraud and sniveling sh!t who thought he was going to steal the nomination despite single-(middle)-digit popularity. The state, being the Crossroads Of the USA and all, should be renamed IndeanUS.

I tell you, with that paste-on toupee and macho demeanor, Trump is going to get a landslide among she-elephants. So a few leftist so-so types might detest him, but :rotfl:
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Understanding the US-2

Post by Viv S »

Hands off Bernie's fries!

Image
Post Reply