Re: US strike options on TSP

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Viv S
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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 05 May 2016 01:46

RajeshA wrote:Viv S ji,

check this video by Van Jones


Just 'Viv' please. :)

Van Jones is right about Trump doing better with African Americans than Romney albeit by a not so great margin (~15% to 5%). But it still won't be nearly enough to make up his colossal problem with women and Hispanics.

See:

President Trump? Not likely

The GOP nomination may be Trump's, but the general election is another story.

On Tuesday he won the Indiana primary in decisive fashion, a victory that puts him about 185 delegates short of the 1,237 he needs to secure the nomination. Ted Cruz, Trump’s closest rival, dropped out in response to the Indiana results. John Kasich, who has only managed to win his home state of Ohio, too suspended his campaign on Wednesday, leaving Trump as the last man standing.

Trump’s march to the nomination has shocked the GOP establishment and defied conventional wisdom. Could he pull off an even bigger upset by winning the White House in November?

If history, polling data, and demographics are any guide, the answer is no. The evidence suggests that Trump will likely suffer a crushing defeat in the general election.


2012’s demographic lessons

The 2012 presidential election provides a good baseline for analysing the 2016 race.

To win the presidency, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by the comfortable margin of 332 to 206 electoral votes. In the popular vote Obama beat Romney by 51 to 47%, a difference of about 5 million votes. Obama’s victory reflected the long-term trend in which Democrats have won the popular vote in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections.

Donald Trump thinks he can reverse that trend by appealing to angry white voters, but the 2012 results show why that won’t work. Lost in the uproar over Trump’s divisive appeals is the fact that Republicans already win whites by huge margins. For example, in 2012 Romney carried white voters by 20 points, and yet he still lost.

The reason was because Obama won the support of minority voters by even bigger margins. He carried 93% of African American voters, 71% of Latino voters and 73% of Asian voters.

The electorate’s demographics will be even more unfavorable for the GOP in 2016. Nonwhite voters constituted 28% of the electorate in 2012, but in 2016 about 38% of Americans are minorities, which means the potential ceiling for minority turnout is extremely high.

Trump’s polarising campaign seems certain to drive up minority turnout, especially among Latinos. The New York billionaire has repeatedly engaged in demagogic appeals to prejudice, bigotry and fear, declaring among other things that Mexico is sending “criminals, drug dealers,” and “rapists” to the United States.

If Trump’s plan is to inspire millions of Latinos to vote against him, it’s working. Even though the general election is still six months away, the “Trump effect” has already sparked a huge increase in voter registration by Latinos. The pace of registration is so great that it is projected that almost two million more Latinos will vote in 2016 than voted in 2012. Moreover, the surge in Latino registration is occurring in key states, like Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Texas.

Republicans must at least be competitive among minority voters to have any chance of winning the White House. George W. Bush, the last Republican to win the presidency, carried 40 percent of Latino voters, which helped him secure a narrow victory over John Kerry in 2004. But a surge in anti-immigrant sentiment among congressional Republicans drove Latino support for the GOP down to 27 percent in 2012, a vulnerability that doomed Romney’s campaign.

The demographic lesson of 2012 is clear. In a diverse nation, Trump has little hope of winning the presidency when 84 percent of nonwhite voters won’t vote for him.


The biggest demographic

The Trump campaign faces an equally daunting gender gap. According to the Gallup Poll, 70% of women have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Women made up 53% of the electorate in 2012, which makes them the single largest demographic group. Female voters made the difference for Obama. Although Romney carried men by 8 points, Obama won the 2012 election because he carried women by 10 points.

Trump’s problems with women are vastly greater than Romney’s problems. The latest polls indicate that Hillary Clinton could beat Trump among women by 40 points, an astounding margin without precedent in American political history. A gender gap half that size would deliver the White House to Clinton in a massive landslide. It would also lead to crushing losses for Republicans in the congressional races.

To have any chance at all, therefore, Trump must dramatically turn around his standing with women. But he’s not off to a good start, to put it mildly. Last week he claimed that if Hillary Clinton were a man, she would not “get 5 percent of the vote”. The comment appeared to make Chris Christie’s wife, who was standing directly behind Trump, roll her eyes in apparent disgust.

The gender issue will be front and center in the fall. During the general election, it’s a safe bet that the Clinton campaign will constantly remind voters of Trump’s long history of insulting women in crude and sexist terms.


The electoral college map

Despite his deep unpopularity with women and minorities, Trump hopes to somehow change the electoral college map by winning blue states like New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In a recent speech Trump promised, “I will win New York against Hillary Clinton.”

But the raw vote totals suggest otherwise. Clinton has won far more votes than Trump in the blue state primaries. For example, in the April 19 New York primary election, Trump won the GOP contest with 524,00 votes while Clinton won the Democratic primary with over 1 million votes. The same was true in Illinois, where Clinton won more than 1 million votes in the Democratic primary and Trump won 556,000 votes in the GOP primary. Clinton also won more votes than Trump in other blue states such as Michigan, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania.

But Trump could change the map in the red states–by losing some of them to Clinton. In several states in the ex-Confederate South, Clinton carried more votes in the Democratic primaries than Trump did in the Republican primaries. For example, Clinton won more votes than Trump in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, Louisiana, and Texas.

Changing Sunbelt demographics are creating cracks in the Republican South. Obama won North Carolina in 2008 and he won Virginia and Florida in both 2008 and 2012. With Trump as her opponent, Clinton could very likely win all three states in 2016 and perhaps other southern states as well.

And keep an eye on Utah. One of the most conservative states in the country, Utah has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential election in over 50 years. But Trump’s vulgarity does not play well in a state where 62% of the population is Mormon. Indeed, early polls show that Clinton leads Trump in Utah. Any Republican who fails to win Utah is not going to get anywhere near the White House.


Republican pessimism

It’s not just Democrats and political pundits who think Trump is a disaster for the GOP. Top Republicans strategists and party insiders believe Trump will lose by a devastating margin in the fall. Karl Rove, for example, has warned that Trump will cost Republicans the White House, the Senate, and many House seats.

To understand the extent of Republican pessimism, look no further than Trump’s potential vice presidential candidates. GOP officeholders who would normally jump at a chance for the vice presidential slot are running away from Trump. As South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham quipped, running as Trump’s vice president is “like buying a ticket on the Titanic.”

Many Republican officeholders won’t even attend the GOP convention, including John McCain, Jeb Bush, Kelly Ayotte, Charlie Baker and Mark Kirk. Even Charles and David Koch, generous donors to the GOP for years, have indicated they intend to skip the Cleveland convention.

The bottom line is Republican leaders with an eye on the future don’t want anything to do with Trump. They know the name “Trump” will likely join Goldwater, McGovern and Mondale as names forever associated with crushing presidential election defeats.

Anthony J. Gaughan, Associate Professor of Law, Drake University

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby KJo » 05 May 2016 01:58

What if Trump springs a surprise by choosing a female VP candidate?
Someone who is a woman, an "achiever", a minority, an "immigrant who made it in 'murica"...

Donald Trump & Nikki Haley?

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 05 May 2016 02:58

KJo wrote:What if Trump springs a surprise by choosing a female VP candidate?
Someone who is a woman, an "achiever", a minority, an "immigrant who made it in 'murica"...

Donald Trump & Nikki Haley?

That female VP candidate would need to be one that's at the end of her political career and prepared to sacrifice whatever credibility she had with women voters, for long shot at replacing Joe Biden. Come to think of it, Trump's VP will have actually have far less influence in the govt than Biden (or most of his predecessors). On the other hand, the chances of Trump suffering a massive coronary while still in office are far greater than Obama's were, so... that aspect will probably have appeal.

In any event, Nikki Haley just outright refused the VP proposal yesterday (she'd previously endorsed Rubio in Feb) -

Gov. Nikki Haley will support Donald Trump, but no thanks on VP nod

Gov. Nikki Haley says she is flat out not interested in becoming the next vice president of the United States, South Carolina's governor said in a statement late Wednesday evening.

The night after billionaire businessman Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Haley said she would support his candidacy because it reflected the "will of the people."

However, despite political press speculation, she will not be serving in possible Trump presidency as his vice president.

"To the members of the press who are asking, while I am flattered to be mentioned and proud of what that says about the great things going on in South Carolina, my plate is full and I am not interested in serving as vice president," Haley said in a statement.

Trump all but sewed up the nomination on Wednesday after Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich dropped out of the race.


A cautious and smart decision IMO. If she does well enough in office (her current approval rating is very strong) she may even have a shot at the White House in 2024 (may be even 2020). Plus she's just 44 (youngest serving governor), and unlike Chris Christie (now reduced to serving as a set dressing for Trump) she's actually got a political future.

On a personal level, she probably dislikes Trump as much as most women and minorities do -

S.C. Republican who called Nikki Haley ‘a raghead’ to endorse Trump

Before Donald Trump declared war on political correctness, a state senator named Jake Knotts was blazing that trail in South Carolina.

On Wednesday, the two Republicans whose inflammatory rhetoric has been considered poison pills by the GOP establishment, will appear together at a Trump rally in Lexington, S.C. Knotts said he will formally endorse Trump's presidential candidacy and is organizing what he called “a good, old-fashioned, chicken bog” barbecue to support him.

Knotts’s commentary has been so incendiary over the years it has drawn gasps from South Carolina’s clubby political elite. In a 2010 episode, Knotts called both President Obama and the state’s Indian-American governor, Nikki Haley, “a raghead,” making national headlines and prompting a formal vote of censure from the Lexington County Republican Party.

Knotts, 71, left office in 2012 following two decades in the state legislature because he lost his re-election to a petition candidate, Katrina Shealy. But he remains a prominent political figure in the Columbia suburbs of Lexington County, where both he and Haley are from.

His appearance with Trump comes only three weeks after Haley implicitly criticized Trump’s campaign rhetoric in her official Republican response to President Obama’s “State of the Union” address. Haley urged Americans to resist the temptation “to follow the siren call of the angriest voices.”

Trump reacted immediately by slamming Haley, although he appeared to smooth things over with her in the following days.

In an interview on Monday night, Knotts said he disagreed with Haley’s speech.

“She said that he was angry," Knotts said. "Heck, yeah, he’s angry. I’m angry. There’s a lot of Americans angry these days, and they want somebody that’s ready to do something about the problems we’ve got.”

Knotts said he was drawn to Trump’s candidacy because of his politically incorrect style. “This political correctness – people are tired of that,” he said. “I like his style. He doesn’t apologize, and he doubles down.”

Knotts added, “I support Trump 100 percent. I’m solid as a rock with Trump. I don’t know if my endorsement helps him, but if it does, everybody in Lexington County will know I support him.”

Haley’s top adviser, Tim Pearson, dismissed Knotts’s political influence, though would not criticize Trump. “He’s the worst,” Pearson said. “The Tony Soprano of Lexington County, South Carolina – except not likable.”

A Trump campaign spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Knotts’s endorsement.

Trump’s event will take place Wednesday at the Harmon's Tree Farm. Knotts said he was inviting “everybody I can” to attend the rally as well as his barbecue. He said he would serve “chicken bog,” a Southern dish that consists of chicken, rice and sausage. “We use Uncle Ben’s rice,” Knotts said.

“I tell you what,” Knotts said, “I hope you give [Trump] a good spill on it because he’s what America needs to make America great again.”

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 05 May 2016 05:51

Meanwhile the Hillary campaign released its first attack ad post Trump securing his nomination. Though unlike the typical attack ad, its not shot in dark hues with the stereotypical ominous voice-over.

Pretty funny really -


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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby RajeshA » 05 May 2016 17:09

For Trump, even bad publicity is good publicity, and Hillary is doing tons of it. Nobody can make more fun of him, than he can himself.

Bad Trump, Good Trump

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby chetak » 05 May 2016 17:29

a bunch of "immaculately conceived" mofos, concocting stories and spreading lies

whose father, what goes of theirs, if AS calls for a nationwide anti conversion law??

US body names BJP leaders for intolerance


NEW DELHI, May 4, 2016,
New Delhi dismissed the report by the United States Commission for International Religious Freedom (or USCIRF), which noted that religious tolerance deteriorated and religious freedom violations increased in India in 2015. Photo courtesy: Twitter
A United States government body has named senior BJP leaders, including party president Amit Shah, while slamming Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for deteriorating religious freedom in India.

New Delhi dismissed the report by the United States Commission for International Religious Freedom (or USCIRF), which noted that religious tolerance deteriorated and religious freedom violations increased in India in 2015. The Ministry of External Affairs on Tuesday issued a statement, saying that a foreign entity like the USCIRF had no “locus standi” to pronounce on the state of constitutionally protected rights of citizens of India.

The USCIRF annual report on international religious freedom came at a time, when New Delhi and Washington are preparing for Modi’s visit to the US early next month.

The prime minister is also likely to address a joint session of the US Congress, apart from meeting President Barack Obama during his visit to Washington DC.

The USCIRF report noted that minority communities in India had been subjected to derogatory comments by politicians belonging to the ruling party and numerous violent attacks and forced conversions by Hindu nationalist groups since the BJP assumed power.

The report cited as an example the September 2015 lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq by a mob of nearly 1,000 people at Bisahra village in Uttar Pradesh. He was lynched for allegedly killing a cow. His son was seriously injured. “In 2015, high-ranking members of the ruling BJP party, including the party president Amit Shah, called for a nationwide anti-conversion law,” noted the USCIRF

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Supratik » 05 May 2016 18:41

Nicki Haley is married to a Latino. Wonder why they rake up illegal immigration in every election and do nothing once elected. The Latino illegal immigrants have remained around 10-11 million since the early 2000s and several presidents have passed through. It is just a ruse to get the Republican nomination. Eventually the US has to move towards a Canada type situation where they have made peace with immigration and a mosaic future. I don't think US in general has a plan to tackle illegal immigration but try to squeeze the legal immigrants specially from India and China.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby SaiK » 05 May 2016 18:57

BALKANIZATION BECKONS
AMERICA: NO LONGER 1 NATION, 1 PEOPLE
Pat Buchanan cites ways 'diversity' has harmed United States

If a country is a land of defined and defended borders, within which resides a people of a common ancestry, history, language, faith, culture and traditions, in what sense are we Americans one nation and one people today?

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/07/america-no-l ... gzPkY6Y.99



in what sense the Amercians were one nation and one people before?


in what sense there is a common ancestry between Europeans and Native Indians?

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby BSR Murthy » 06 May 2016 06:39

Nikki Haley is married to Michael Haley, a white Methodist.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Yagnasri » 06 May 2016 11:17

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... about-don/

Rings bell even in India. I guess people are being fed up with normal politicos all around world.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby RajeshA » 06 May 2016 18:54

The mind of some Left-Liberals in America is so skewed that they don't understand that they are ending up doing propaganda in favor of Trump's anti-Muslim doctrine.

Check these tweets:

Tweet on: Hillary cites Malala on critique against Islam.

Tweet on: Trump saying, he will do everything he says.

Tweet on: Love Trumps Hate aka "Love Trump's Hate"

Tweet on: Hillary summarizes anti-Trump antipathy within Republican Establishment.

Tweet on: Hillary reiterates Trump's hard-line of temporary ban on Muslim entry into USA.

People say, Trump received $ 2 billion worth of free publicity from US media. Here Hillary is giving more of free publicity, as Hillary does not seem to be able to read public opinion in USA.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Supratik » 06 May 2016 19:37

BSR Murthy wrote:Nikki Haley is married to Michael Haley, a white Methodist.



Ok, got that wrong. He is white, Methodist.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Gus » 06 May 2016 19:58

Hilary v trump. This is a fight I am not going to pick a side. From a domestic US Perspective Hilary comes off better but for India one is a known devil and other is unknown devil.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Supratik » 06 May 2016 20:23

Hillary was behind the fact finding mission to Gujrat regarding 2002.

Melwyn

Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Melwyn » 06 May 2016 22:16

^Not to mention the famous bone digging expedition to find the mass graves in Gujarat. They did manage to find graves but the bones turned out to be of buffaloes. :rotfl:

@Gus "From a domestic US Perspective Hilary comes off better".

Not sure how this is even true. She is in the pocket of corporates who want to outsource more, suppress wages and sell weapons. She is more hawkish than Obama having voted for wars in the past. Her tenure as the first lady is best known for NAFTA and Sex scandal. Her tenure as SoS is known for emails, Bengazhi and Mid East adventures that failed spectacularly. That is the worst possible combination for a US president. What USA needs, is to reduce it's military footprint and increase social spending and wages. Hillary can't do any of these because that will be exact opposite of what her benefactors will want her to do. They only reason she is making some noises about income inequality and minority rights is because Bernie Sanders forced her to the left of her position. Once elected she will care zilch about these issues while taking $200k cheques for a 20 min speech at corporate headquarters.

Both Trump and Hillary are on the same boat. Just that Hillary is a polished white queen of politics while Trump is the red neck variety that bible belters love.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Falijee » 06 May 2016 22:51

FBI Interviewed Huma Abedin in Clinton Probe
he FBI interviewed Hillary
Clinton’s closest ally Huma Abedin on Thursday in the latest development of the federal government’s probe into her unsecured email system, according to U.S. officials.
While the investigation is ongoing, investigators said they still haven’t discovered evidence that shows the Democratic presidential front-runner “willfully” violated federal law.
Officials are seeking to determine whether Clinton mishandled classified information by using a private email system during her time serving as secretary of state.
Government officials found that more than 2,000 emails on Clinton’s server contain classified information, though none was marked classified on her personal email. Twenty-two messages have been deemed “top secret,” the highest classification level, and were withheld from public release

DT will definetely use this to discredit Hillary !

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Singha » 07 May 2016 13:00

Image

village people watching swamp buggy racing in florida. note the flag.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby JE Menon » 07 May 2016 13:03

^^Looks like a Tommy Bowfinger advert, or is it Scabercrombie & Bitch?

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby chaitanya » 08 May 2016 00:22

Have you guys seen this? Hillary in her finest...


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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby JE Menon » 08 May 2016 16:12

^^^Nope, haven't heard it or seen it before. This needs to be tweeted, wholesale... sometime in September would be best I think.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Falijee » 08 May 2016 18:01

Judicial Watch Lawsuit Uncovers More Hillary Clinton Emails Withheld from State Department

Clinton Aide Huma Displeased with Clinton’s ‘I’m Exhausted Thing’
Abedin using additional non-.gov email address for government business
(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch today released new State Department emails (one batch of 103 pages, the second of 138 pages) that again appear to contradict statements by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that, “as far as she knew,” all of her government emails were turned over to the State Department and that she did not use her clintonemail.com system until March 18, 2009.

Hillary Clinton, time and again has been proved to be a "serial liar" !

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 08 May 2016 18:34

Gus wrote:Hilary v trump. This is a fight I am not going to pick a side. From a domestic US Perspective Hilary comes off better but for India one is a known devil and other is unknown devil.

Hillary is just continuation of Obama both on domestic policy and foreign policy. Which is neither good nor bad. Just more of the same. For India, an anti-establishment candidate would have been a worry simply because such an individual would have pushed the US towards a more isolationist foreign policy at a time when China is more expansionist than ever.

On the domestic front, a winning anti-establishment candidate might have been preferable had it been anybody but 'The Donald'. Trump is well and truly unhinged. His economic plan - paying off the $19 trillion national debt within 8 years while also gutting govt spending is stupidity magnified.

One could perhaps have taken a charitable view that he's pandering to his audience, if not the for fact that he followed it up with an entirely sincere plan of further running up the debt (because of low interest rates) and thereafter negotiating massive write-downs from his debtors by threatening to default (he says such tactics worked very well for his business). Oh and he also plans to support his efforts to balance the budget by threatening to start a trade war with China and others with the US runs a trade deficit (which includes India).

My real trouble is that this monumental idiocy doesn't just threat the US economy, it also threatens the global economy and by extension the Indian economy.


Donald Trump just threatened to cause an unprecedented global financial crisis

Updated by Matthew Yglesias

In an interview Thursday on CNBC, Donald Trump broke with tired clichés about the evils of federal debt accumulation. "I am the king of debt," he said. "I love debt. I love playing with it."

But he replaced fearmongering about debt with an even more alarming notion — a bankruptcy of the United States federal government that would incinerate the world economy.

"I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal," Trump said. "And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you can't lose."

With his statement, Trump not only revealed a dangerous ignorance about the operation of the national monetary system and the global economic order, but also offered a brilliant case study in the profound risks of attempting to apply the logic of a private business enterprise to the task of running the United States of America.

Trump's business logic makes sense

Trump is a businessman, and in terms of thinking like a businessman his idea makes sense.

The interest rate that investors currently charge the United States in order to borrow money is very low. A smart business strategy under those circumstances would be to borrow a bunch of money and undertake a bunch of big investment projects that are somewhat risky but judged to possibly have a huge payoff.

You now have two possible scenarios.

In one scenario, the investments work out and you make a ton of money. In that case, you can easily pay back the loan and everyone wins.

In another scenario, the investments don't work out and you don't make much money. In that case, you objectively can't pay back the loan. You either work out a deal with the people you owe money to in which they accept less than 100 percent of what you owe them (this is called a "haircut") or else you go to bankruptcy court and a judge will force them to accept less than 100 percent.

This is how businesspeople think — especially those who work in capital-intensive industries like real estate. And for good reason. This is the right way to run a real estate company.

Applying this idea to the United States would destroy the economy

The United States of America, however, is not a real estate development company. If a real estate company defaults on its debts and its creditors lose money, that's their problem. If a bank fails as a result, then it's the FDIC's responsibility to clean it up.

The government doesn't work like that. Right now, people and companies all around the world treat US government bonds as the least risky financial asset in the universe. If the government defaults and banks fail as a result, the government needs to clean up the mess. And if risk-free federal bonds turn out to be risky, then every other financial asset becomes riskier. The interest rate charged on state and local government debt, on corporate debt, and on home loans will spike. Savings will evaporate, and liquidity will vanish as everyone tries to hold on to their cash until they can figure out what's going on.

Every assessment of risk in the financial system is based on the idea that the least risky thing is lending money to the federal government. If that turns out to be much riskier than previously thought, then everything else becomes much riskier too. Business investment will collapse, state and local finances will be crushed, and shockwaves will emanate to a whole range of foreign countries that borrow dollars.

Remember 2008, when the markets went from thinking housing debt was low-risk to thinking it was high-risk, and a global financial crisis was the result? This would be like that, but much worse — US government debt is the very foundation of low-risk investments.

What's especially troubling about Trump's proposal is that there is genuinely no conceivable circumstance under which this kind of default would be necessary. The debt of the federal government consists entirely of obligations to pay US dollars to various individuals and institutions. US dollars are, conveniently, something the US government can create instantly and in infinite quantities at any time.

Of course, it might be undesirable to finance debts by printing money rather than raising taxes or cutting spending. In particular, that kind of money printing could lead to inflation, and even though inflation is very low right now there's no guarantee that it will always be low.

But a little bit of inflation is always going to be strictly preferable to destroying the whole American economy, especially because a debt default would cause a crash in the value of the dollar and spark inflation anyway.

Trump doesn't know what he's talking about

This is the second time this week that Trump has revealed a profound ignorance of an issue related to government debts.

The early instance in which he kept proposing that Puerto Rico declare bankruptcy even though doing so is illegal was on a question that's very important to Puerto Ricans but not so important to everyone else. It is, however, important to pay attention to how presidential candidates approach issues across the board — and what we saw with Puerto Rico is that Trump approached the issue by simplistically applying business logic without bothering to check whether it applies to the actual situation.

Now in the CNBC interview he's done the exact same thing on a matter of more consequence —not the debts of Puerto Rico but the debts of the United States of America. It's understandable that a real estate developer might assume that what works in real estate would work in economic policy, but it's not true. And Trump hasn't bothered to check or ask anyone about it.
Last edited by Viv S on 08 May 2016 19:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 08 May 2016 18:42

Donald Trump's Federal Budget Psychosis Gets Visibly Worse

Before I say anything about Donald Trump’s latest federal budget craziness, let’s remember that he previously has willingly and apparently very proudly displayed his psychotic fiscal thinking.

As I said in this post, it was only a month or so ago that Trump revealed a tax cut plan the Tax Policy Center said will increase the deficit by an astounding $9.5 trillion over the next 10 years. And that was an understatement because it didn’t include the additional interest the government will have to pay because of the increased borrowing from the higher deficits.

Trump then compounded his budget lunacy by saying there would be no increase in the national debt because he would pay for it by cutting it the old-fashioned way — by eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.

Waste, fraud and abuse? The Tax Policy Center’s analysis shows that if military spending were untouched, to prevent more government borrowing Trump would either have to eliminate 82 percent of domestic appropriations or 41 percent of Medicare and Social Security.

But Trump has also said that he doesn’t want to leave the Pentagon’s budget untouched; he wants to increase it. He’s also said that he won’t cut Medicare and Social Security.

In other words, in a calculation that shows just how loony Trump’s waste, fraud and abuse plan would be, the 82 percent of all other domestic programs the TPC says would have to be cut would actually need to be far closer to 100 percent to do everything Trump says he wants to do.

Then Trump really put his federal budget madness on display by telling The Washington Post that it’s not that he wouldn’t increase the national debt, he actually would eliminate it in eight years. How? As I explained in this post, he’d do it with a totally unfeasible (and I’m being kind) plan to sell federal assets that might not work unless it included putting a few states up for sale.

But last week Trump added an even crazier idea to what was already a pantheon of unworkable, impractical and unintelligible budget plans : if necessary he’s going to insist that those who own U.S. debt accept less interest than they’re entitled to receive.

Never mind that this would be the equivalent of the U.S. defaulting on its debt for the first time in its history.

Never mind that this almost certainly would lead to hundreds of billions of dollars in additional rather than lower interest payments if Trump’s election prospects improve.

Never mind that Republican and Democratic economists have both denounced the Trump plan as stupid and harmful.

And never mind that the plan is considered a total “non-starter” by the bond market.

Instead, just consider how remarkably inconsistent this is with the other off-the-wall federal budget ideas Trump has publically expressed so far.

After saying a month ago that he wouldn’t increase the national debt and would even eliminate it, he’s now saying that he would stimulate economic growth with…wait for it…more government borrowing. Trump said he “would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal” with those who own Treasuries.

This idea was so potentially economically harmful that a Trump spokesperson was sent out a day or so later to moderate its impact. After his candidate talked about the U.S. defaulting, the Trump spokesman said, “The government has to honor its debts.”

And that was several weeks after a different campaign spokesperson had to walk-back Trump’s sale-of-assets idea because it was so laughable.

What’s most remarkable about all of this is the lengths to which Trump is going to avoid anything close to a serious proposal about the federal budget. Instead, he’s offered a steady series of irrational ideas that on both a bipartisan and nonpolitical basis have been disputed, disproven and denounced and have had to be taken back almost immediately.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 08 May 2016 19:01

Falijee wrote:Hillary Clinton, time and again has been proved to be a "serial liar" !

She's almost certainly lying about the email server.

But when it comes to 'serial' lying, she can't touch Donald Trump. Nobody can. He lies with a frequency and a level of comfort that is simply staggering to observe.

According to Politifact, a non-partisan research body, a whopping 76% of his statements analyzed were various degrees of false, with 19% being rated full scale 'Pants on Fire' lies.

And where Politifact normally awards a Lie of Year, thanks to Donald Trump's entry on the stage in 2015, they had to give the award to an entire compilation of lies.

Donald Trump's file

Image


2015 Lie of the Year: the campaign misstatements of Donald Trump

PolitiFact has been documenting Trump’s statements on our Truth-O-Meter, where we’ve rated 76 percent of them Mostly False, False or Pants on Fire, out of 77 statements checked. No other politician has as many statements rated so far down on the dial.

In considering our annual Lie of the Year, we found our only real contenders were Trump’s -- his various statements also led our Readers’ Poll. But it was hard to single one out from the others. So we have rolled them into one big trophy.

To the candidate who says he’s all about winning, PolitiFact designates the many campaign misstatements of Donald Trump as our 2015 Lie of the Year.



His most recent lie was less than a week ago -

Image

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Mort Walker » 08 May 2016 20:21

Trump said he “would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal” with those who own Treasuries.


Trump simply stated out loud what every other US president would do in the same situation. There is nothing new here and Trump's only mistake is to say it out loud.

Donald Trump is exposing the US political system of its corruption. It is no better than any other place in the world and he is laying it bare. The politicos in the US in both parties have failed the common man and now US voters are pushing back. Yes, Trump supporters are racists, but they have always been there and would still be there whether or not he was running for president. Both parties would use them to win in certain districts if necessary, it is Trump who has now brought them out to the fore front.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby TSJones » 08 May 2016 23:12

^^^^^

since this thread is about understanding the US, then understand this: the president has no authority over financing the US government unless he wants to change the constitution which is highly unlikely.

the US congress has sole authority for raising funds and budgeting of the US government.

the president can veto any bill that he dislikes, but that can be over ridden by congress also.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby RajeshA » 08 May 2016 23:19

For India, interesting about Trump are his ideas like

- his willingness to take on Islam in general and ISIS in particular
- his encouragement to Japan and South Korea to go nuclear
- his desire to try to solve Pakistan with India's help
- his relative positive attitude towards India
- his willingness to end the cold war with Russia and thus to be harbinger of a different geostrategic polity
- his encouragement for Brexit

The rest of Trump's craziness isn't really much interesting from perspective of India's interests

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby ldev » 08 May 2016 23:29

^^
Re Trump's view on renegotiating US Treasury debt. In any event the US today is caught in a straitjacket. Rates cannot go up because that will lead to default. But close to zero rates have destroyed the business cycle and investment has evaporated. There is a difference between liquidity (given via liberal Federal Reserve policies) and solvency via genuine savings. Genuine savers have disappeared, but without savings there cannot be investment and it is investment that leads to jobs. And it that lack of jobs in the US which has propelled Trump to where he is.

The elite who are the real "creators" of paper/electronic dollars want their "global empire" to continue growing, as it has for the last 30-40 years. The more countries that can be brought into "the dollar fold", the better it is for these "creators". They are the real drivers behind the agenda for liberal global trade. The winners in this scenario besides the "creators" are those countries which are nimble enough to seize this opportunity and grow, the South East Asian countries, then East Asia, China, and now Eastern Europe. That has come about in large part at the cost of the average US "Joe Blow", who has finally had enough and is turning to Trump in droves. That is what Trump's
"America first" is all about. He is going up against the "creators" who have the entire elite of both US political parties in their pockets. And the "creators" utilize the levers of the USG including it's military when required to implement their policies. Understand this and "US policy" becomes comprehensible.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby devesh » 09 May 2016 00:05

so, let's stop campaigning for one candidate or the other. the thread's topic is "understanding" US. not lobbying for a side in elections.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Mort Walker » 09 May 2016 02:25

ldev wrote:^^
Re Trump's view on renegotiating US Treasury debt. In any event the US today is caught in a straitjacket. Rates cannot go up because that will lead to default. But close to zero rates have destroyed the business cycle and investment has evaporated. There is a difference between liquidity (given via liberal Federal Reserve policies) and solvency via genuine savings. Genuine savers have disappeared, but without savings there cannot be investment and it is investment that leads to jobs. And it that lack of jobs in the US which has propelled Trump to where he is.

The elite who are the real "creators" of paper/electronic dollars want their "global empire" to continue growing, as it has for the last 30-40 years. The more countries that can be brought into "the dollar fold", the better it is for these "creators". They are the real drivers behind the agenda for liberal global trade. The winners in this scenario besides the "creators" are those countries which are nimble enough to seize this opportunity and grow, the South East Asian countries, then East Asia, China, and now Eastern Europe. That has come about in large part at the cost of the average US "Joe Blow", who has finally had enough and is turning to Trump in droves. That is what Trump's
"America first" is all about. He is going up against the "creators" who have the entire elite of both US political parties in their pockets. And the "creators" utilize the levers of the USG including it's military when required to implement their policies. Understand this and "US policy" becomes comprehensible.


Correct.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby TSJones » 09 May 2016 02:35

the question is not about Trump but congress.

Trump can suggest, complain and cajole but only congress can enact.

both houses are controlled by repugnicans. But Trump is a populist and the repugnants don't like him.

at any rate Trump will have to overcome a current voter deficiency in order to get elected president and right now, at this time and this space, he ain't got them

Billary has got them......so far......

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Mort Walker » 09 May 2016 02:46

^^^You are correct that re-negotiating US debt to bond holders must be done by congress, but discussions would start at the US Treasury Dept. which is an executive branch agency. Debt restructuring would start at Treasury and involve leaders of both houses of congress and the Federal Reserve.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby TSJones » 09 May 2016 23:56

congress sets the debt limit. treasury's hands are tied on that matter.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Viv S » 11 May 2016 22:35

TSJones wrote:since this thread is about understanding the US, then understand this: the president has no authority over financing the US government unless he wants to change the constitution which is highly unlikely.

the US congress has sole authority for raising funds and budgeting of the US government.

In general yes (its true for most legislatures, including the Indian one). But in practice, the President is the de facto leader of his party, whichever it may be. His party is expected to back him on the budget and he is expected to spearhead his party's legislation. Which is why the Affordable Care Act, introduced in, debated on and passed by the US Congress, is still dubbed 'Obamacare' (even though, technically, all Obama did was give it his assent).

Fortunately, Trump engenders almost as much antipathy within his own party as he does with the opposing one, so a budget request by a Trump administration (god forbid!) would never get past the Congress, but Trump's discourses, especially after having (supposedly) shifted to 'non-lunatic mode' for the general election, are still worth examining as further evidence of his imbecility.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Singha » 12 May 2016 10:56

peter thiel has endorsed Trump and joined his financing team. early stage investor in palantir and a lot more.

a tea leaf that deep state mil-ind complex might be aligning behind sirji ?

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Falijee » 13 May 2016 19:54

Clintons Got $100 Million From Persian Gulf Sheikhs
How much is for sale at that price?

In an exclusive report, the Daily Caller explains the vast amount of money that Middle Eastern autocrats have poured into the pockets of Bill and Hillary Clinton. In addition to $85 million in cash donations to the couple’s “foundation,” Bill Clinton received $15 million in “guaranteed payments” from the crown prince of Dubai. He is alleged to have received as much as another $20 million in “walking away money” from their scheme to establish an offshore sovereign wealth fund. This is in addition to more than a million dollars in speaking fees Clinton charged the United Arab Emirates (UAE), fees approved by the State Department while Hillary was in charge of it.
What was for sale for all that money? The article proposes three answers: support for the UAE’s brutal government, a willingness to sell out on American fracking that was hurting Gulf States’ income, and support for radical extremists.
The Clinton Foundation seems to have tolerated extremist Islamists in their Middle East offices. An Egyptian court sentenced a former top Clinton Foundation employee, Gehed el-Haddad, to life imprisonment in April 2015 for “inciting violence” and supporting an Islamist protest against the military-led ousting of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi.

From 2007 to 2012 el-Haddad was a Cairo city director of the Clinton Foundation in Egypt and ran its in-country office as well as directed communications.
El-Haddad had a well-known reputation for promoting radical Islam. He formally joined Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party in May 2011 as a senior adviser for foreign affairs, overlapping for more than a year during his tenure with the Clinton Foundation, according to his Linked-In social media page
.
Morsi was a tool of the Muslim Brotherhood, which used his Presidency to try to overthrow Egypt’s constitution and replace it with one founded in sharia law. Their brief rule was characterized by violence, murder, and chaos.
In addition to these items proposed by the Daily Caller piece, it is a matter of record that regimes that donated to the Clintons got favorable treatment on arms deals. The International Business Times reports:
The Saudi deal was one of dozens of arms sales approved by Hillary Clinton’s State Department that placed weapons in the hands of governments that had also donated money to the Clinton family philanthropic empire… . Under Clinton’s leadership, the State Department approved $165 billion worth of commercial arms sales to 20 nations whose governments have given money to the Clinton Foundation, according to an IBTimes analysis of State Department and foundation data. That figure — derived from the three full fiscal years of Clinton’s term as Secretary of State (from October 2010 to September 2012) — represented nearly double the value of American arms sales made to the those countries and approved by the State Department during the same period of President George W. Bush’s second term.
Might these donations also have something to do with the fact that Clinton refuses to admit that radical Islamic terrorism has something to do with radical Islam? That seems like something her Middle Eastern benefactors would like, especially the Brotherhood and the four Saudi sheikhs who gave the Clintons $30 million just themselves.
What else was for sale for a hundred million dollars? For that much money, was there anything that wasn’t?

With her family contacts in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the ME, the "behind -the -scene" role played by her Muslim confidante (and maid ) Ms. Huma Abedin cannot be ruled out - IMO !

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Arjun » 14 May 2016 15:54

RajeshA wrote:For India, interesting about Trump are his ideas like

- his willingness to take on Islam in general and ISIS in particular
- his encouragement to Japan and South Korea to go nuclear
- his desire to try to solve Pakistan with India's help
- his relative positive attitude towards India
- his willingness to end the cold war with Russia and thus to be harbinger of a different geostrategic polity
- his encouragement for Brexit

The rest of Trump's craziness isn't really much interesting from perspective of India's interests

There are also a few others that are of interest from an Indian perspective:

1. What could be the potential impact of a Trump presidency on successful Indian export industries such as IT services or pharmaceuticals, considering that the US is a key market for both?

2. Given how the world is integrated economically, what impact would Trump's economic stance have on the global economy and on India?

3. Will his stance on immigration be positive or negative for Indian Americans (I tend to think it would be positive)...

4. Is he a promoter of EJ interests within the US and globally? I personally think he is more of a Nationalist and not really driven by religion or race, but I would like to weigh more evidence from his past....

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby vera_k » 19 May 2016 07:06


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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby RajeshA » 19 May 2016 12:22



In the end, one-third of Bernie's followers would vote Trump, one-third would vote against Trump, and one-third would vote against both Trump and Clinton and sit at home.

People are not going to see her as a unifier for the Democrats, and thus her favorability would continue to tank. She would be considered as the one who stopped Bernie from taking on Trump and thus deserving of losing.

If Hillary is doing so bad in May, in November there is going to be a massacre of her prospects.

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Re: Understanding the US-2

Postby Singha » 19 May 2016 15:23

Fox News Latino

Gun that Zimmerman shot Trayvon Martin with auctioned for more than $100K
Fox News Latino - ‎12 hours ago‎
According to UnitedGunGroup.com , George Zimmerman has successfully auctioned off the gun he used to kill 17-year-old Trayvon Martin on Wednesday.


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